High Speed Diesel Train (HSDT) - The Story continues

[Roy Langridge]

Or even part of the train.

 

Isn't that partly the issue - as far as I am aware, no-one has actually asked this question? Surely unless they do, they have no way of knowing whether there would be sufficient interest or not. Perhaps they could ask for 'Expressions of interest' to gauge the market. And if that results in sufficient numbers, perhaps a deposit as they did with the APT-E. And then, and only then, would we know if it is viable or not.

To be honest I don't think expressions of interest work. Too many people in this hobby are quick to be "interested" in everything with little thought to buying. Refundable deposits with a commitment to proceed if a certain number are ordered is the way to go in my book.

 

Roy

[PrestburyJack]

To be honest I don't think expressions of interest work. Too many people in this hobby are quick to be "interested" in everything with little thought to buying. Refundable deposits with a commitment to proceed if a certain number are ordered is the way to go in my book.

 

Roy

Agreed that an 'expression of interest' wouldn't be useful in proving what people would commit to, only a deposit would do that, but it could be used to eliminate some options before moving to the deposit stage for what's left. Edited February 15, 2017 by PrestburyJack

[Revolution Mike]

To be honest I don't think expressions of interest work.

 

Expressions of interest can work well, but not without some considerable effort to promote them and manage them (eg weeding out the unrealistic expressions - you can also start to build up patterns of customer behaviour if you compare to sales).  Furthermore you can build up some really valuable market research.

 

Cheers, Mike

[Karhedron]

To be honest I don't think expressions of interest work. Too many people in this hobby are quick to be "interested" in everything with little thought to buying.

The converse is also true though. Some people don't bother clicking on "vapourware" but would happily shell out for the actual prototype in question if it was in production.

[Roy Langridge]

The converse is also true though. Some people don't bother clicking on "vapourware" but would happily shell out for the actual prototype in question if it was in production.

 

I don't disagree with that, I just don't consider Expressions of Interest as being a good indicator of how well an item will sell prior to committing to production.

 

Roy

[jjb1970]

In a sense whether or not the manufacturer has expressions of interest isn't the issue for them, it is whether they're confident the project will make a decent return.

 

The expression of interest and pre-order idea has hit a bit of a problem in my opinion. The current exchange rate, inflationary pressures in China, economic uncertainty and production schedules in China mean it is going to be a brave company that committs to an up front price and guarantees it. If you don't know the price with some surety then how can you pr-order? You can pre-order but I don't see how you can be held to that pre-order if the price goes up subsequent to the price advertised when ordering, yet the point of the pre-order sales model is to give suppliers confidence that they won't be left with inventory. Bit of a conundrum there.

[PrestburyJack]

In a sense whether or not the manufacturer has expressions of interest isn't the issue for them, it is whether they're confident the project will make a decent return.

 

The expression of interest and pre-order idea has hit a bit of a problem in my opinion. The current exchange rate, inflationary pressures in China, economic uncertainty and production schedules in China mean it is going to be a brave company that committs to an up front price and guarantees it. If you don't know the price with some surety then how can you pr-order? You can pre-order but I don't see how you can be held to that pre-order if the price goes up subsequent to the price advertised when ordering, yet the point of the pre-order sales model is to give suppliers confidence that they won't be left with inventory. Bit of a conundrum there.

But isn't that the same for every other product made by Hornby, Bachmann, Oxford, etc?

[jjb1970]

But isn't that the same for every other product made by Hornby, Bachmann, Oxford, etc?

Yes and no. The uncertainty applies but Hornby, Bachmann etc don't operate a pre-order based business model and are probably better able to carry the risk of a release being a flop. I suspect that if either Rapido or the Locomotion shop had gone through a period of financial results like Hornby's then neither would be with us. Whether we like it or not, Rapido manufacture to pre-order numbers, current conditions present certain difficulties to that model.

[PrestburyJack]

Whether we like it or not, Rapido manufacture to pre-order numbers, current conditions present certain difficulties to that model.

But my point is, at the moment the project has been shelved without anyone being given the opportunity to place an order. How can they gauge the level of interest when they haven't asked - who's to say that if they asked people wouldn't put down a decent deposit? Based on the APT-E, I would.

[JSpencer]

But my point is, at the moment the project has been shelved without anyone being given the opportunity to place an order. How can they gauge the level of interest when they haven't asked - who's to say that if they asked people wouldn't put down a decent deposit? Based on the APT-E, I would.

 

You have to remember that "interest" is related to price. For example I am interested in the entire train if it can be done for £600 but that is extremely unlikely.

 

Now imagine they say each power car is £200, it takes a good two years to develope and deliver the model. The problem is, the price might rise 20% a year during that time (Brexit, Chinese wages, Trump's WWIII, whatever --- there are a lot of variables floating out right now). Now adding a ballpark 40% to a £50 model makes £70, people would probably accept that increase. But adding 40% to £200 takes us close to £300.

 

The problem is, the NRM will almost certainly find itself unable to honor even a £200 price tag. How many will loose interest and cancel their orders if they contact everyone with a £300 price tag? (Kernow found themselves with a lot of cancelled DEMU orders when the price jumped to £199....)

They could stick £300 out there now to cover this, but then a lot of people won't be interested because that is the current price for the Hornby HST pair, likewise the increases might not even happen!

I therefore understand and respect that they need some stability to return before perusing the project that takes at least 2 years.

[jjb1970]

But my point is, at the moment the project has been shelved without anyone being given the opportunity to place an order. How can they gauge the level of interest when they haven't asked - who's to say that if they asked people wouldn't put down a decent deposit? Based on the APT-E, I would.

 

The same way that manufacturers who do not use the pre-order model do, by analysis, applying their experience of the market, interacting with customers and all the other things that go into market research. That is clearly far from infallible and it is easy to get wrong but it is also something some companies do very well. In the current market I'm guessing companies are applying more caution than they would have done a few years ago. This is a niche release of a prototype train, the tooling may only be used once and will have to recover all costs and make a profit from the first run, it is very different from a production HST which will be a steady ongoing seller and where the tooling will probably be used over and over until it wears out. Models are price sensitive and manufacturers are already being given a hard time about some prices (I've given them a hard time in some cases myself). How much would people pay for this model? £200? £250? £300? Then you'll need the trailers and a second power car if you want to run it as a train on a layout. Some may be willing to pay whatever it takes but many won't and this wouldn't be the bargain that the APT was.

[UP 4000]

Looks like Dapol are putting the brakes on the N gauge HSDT,

 

From there website,

 

The effects of the decision to leave the EU last June continue, particularly on the devaluation of Sterling and the increase in the general feeling of uncertainty as the actual leave date looms. These effects coupled with the continued inflationary pressures being experienced in China means that the decision to invest in projects and develop new lines is becoming increasingly difficult. Not only is the unit cost of models rising at an alarming rate but the cost of the tooling is also escalating. Tooling prices are now more than double what they were 7 years ago.

As a company we appreciate that this is an increasingly expensive hobby and that the current economic uncertainty threatens discretionary model purchasing. The crunch that we find ourselves in with alarmingly rising costs, dwindling volumes due to higher retail prices being required means we have to be realistic about what we can and cannot develop.

It is my responsibility as MD of Dapol to ensure the company’s sustainability and the long term future of the business. Not only do I have a responsibility to our fantastic customer base but I also have a workforce which depends on Dapol’s success.

With this predicament at the forefront, the company has to make difficult decisions about our funding and prioritising of projects, especially those that made financial sense when first announced but currently do not. Unfortunately, some previously announced and mooted projects will have to be put on abeyance until the economic conditions become more favourable. This is particularly, but not exclusively  the case in N gauge were the small size of the market, the relatively high cost of manufacture and natural cap on retail prices means that returns are least favourable. Projects such as the Class 50, Class 59, prototype HST, Battle of Britain and others are being delayed as result of this. Over the next two weeks we will update our development pages on the website to reflect these decisions, so please look there to find out about any of our projects that are of interest to you.

Coupled with this statement is also an apology from me. Dapol as a company has undoubtedly over announced products in the past which has led to this situation. The tendency to be overly optimistic about development times and unrealistic about what can be achieved has been prevalent. It is our intention that any new models announced from now on will have been researched and developed to an extent that the model will be in store within 14 months of being made public.

It is also our intention to make more products at our own factory in the UK. This is a slow process with huge learning challenges, however we all at Dapol are committed to this and are proud of what we make in our small factory in Chirk.

I thank you all for your patience and understanding

Kind Regards

 

Joel Bright

 

Link as well if needed, http://Dapol.co.uk/index.php?route=blog%2Fpost&post_id=43

[Padishar Creel]

Looks like Dapol are putting the brakes on the N gauge HSDT,

 

Hallo,

I also immediately thought of Rapido when I read the news. I have no idea how many had expressed interest in the N-Gauge version, and cannot make any educated guess as whether if would be a profitable venture. I do see though that if Rapido are continuing with this project in 00 there may be more of a possibility that the Prototype HST is also produced in N by them (please note my sentence construction). Whilst tooling is scale specific some of the R&D costs I'm sure can be spread across the two gauges. Please correct me if this is not true.

 

I expect the agreement between Dapol and the Miller Project would also need close scrutiny to ensure neither party is damaged.

 

The prototype HST was a part of my anorak and BR cheese sandwich days and I would definitely buy one in N.

 

es grüßt

pc

[phil-b259]

 I do see though that if Rapido are continuing with this project in 00 there may be more of a possibility that the Prototype HST is also produced in N by them (please note my sentence construction). Whilst tooling is scale specific some of the R&D costs I'm sure can be spread across the two gauges.

 

But they are not.

 

Much like UK electrification projects the Rapido HSDT is 'paused' indefinitely - Rapido / the NRM are quite clear that the HSDT in ANY gauge will not go forward until such time as the Pound regains the strength it lost in the financial markets thanks to the UK voters decision to leave the EU.

 

OK so we may have 'got back our freedom' - but when that means everything from food to clothes and consumer goods to model trains costs us significantly to buy as a result, its hardly the 'victory' some seem to think it is. The phrase "Be careful what you wish for" has never been more apt when it comes to Brexit.

 

Things are of course made worse by Trumps protectionist rhetoric as well as the sustained rise in Chinese production costs over the past decade or so.

 

Dapol are basically saying the same - and if things don't improve then it wouldn't surprise me to see Hornby or Bachmann be forced to take a similar approch when it comes to certain projects.

 

At the end of the day model railways are a business - and like pretty much every other UK business that is exposed to the currency markets and overseas production now is not he time to be taking risky gambles that threaten the well being of the business. Raodo is first and foremost a Canadian business to supply North American modellers and looking after that must take precedence over any involvement in the UK modelling market.

Edited March 18, 2017 by phil-b259

[Philip Jackson]

I've backed the APT-P model 14 coach train for just under £1k, perhaps now is the time for Locomotion Models / Rapido to revisit this project? (before my wife finds out)

[No Decorum]

I've backed the APT-P model 14 coach train for just under £1k, perhaps now is the time for Locomotion Models / Rapido to revisit this project? (before my wife finds out)

 Careful now! Divorce might not leave you with enough for model trains!

 

I’m afraid I have refused the fence – too high at £1K. If I were Rapido and NRM, I’d sit tight and see what the response is to the APT-P. If the response is good, I might think of the shortest realistic train possible.

 

If I were Hornby, I’d think of shooting the health & safety chap, getting the APT-P tooling down off the shelf and doing a Railroad jobbie. I’d think about it.

[UP 4000]

I too have gone for the 14 car and a 6 car APT-P, but I think this will be another hurdle in the way for the HSDT, Although P-Train will bring some attention back for HSDT and encourage some new interest I don't think anything will happen anytime soon.

 

As mentioned by other members and Rapido themselves the economic market just isn't right for the HSDT at the moment, plus the MK3's, Oxford may be doing a version of them but as said Rapido couldn't compete at there prices not for a one off model, at least Oxford can re-livery them so more cost effective,

 

They also couldn't release it at the same time as the P-Train or very close to as nobody could afford it, and disastrous for both models, I agree with No Decorum, they need to see what the response is over P-Train, and what happens with Oxford's MK3's,

I think we might be looking 2020 or later for HSDT,

[woodenhead]

If Locomotion are the commissioner then they have the option to have Rapido do the the locomotives and Oxford/Hornby (Oxby ???) do the Mk3s.

 

It's not as if they have no working relationship with Oxford to build upon and everyone comes out happy.

[adb968008]

I too have gone for the 14 car and a 6 car APT-P, but I think this will be another hurdle in the way for the HSDT, Although P-Train will bring some attention back for HSDT and encourage some new interest I don't think anything will happen anytime soon.

 

As mentioned by other members and Rapido themselves the economic market just isn't right for the HSDT at the moment, plus the MK3's, Oxford may be doing a version of them but as said Rapido couldn't compete at there prices not for a one off model, at least Oxford can re-livery them so more cost effective,

 

They also couldn't release it at the same time as the P-Train or very close to as nobody could afford it, and disastrous for both models, I agree with No Decorum, they need to see what the response is over P-Train, and what happens with Oxford's MK3's,

I think we might be looking 2020 or later for HSDT,

The market is right for a full size 14 car APT which hasn’t run for 30 years and only half exists, but the market isn’t right for a working, passenger hauling HST diesel, which doesn’t need catenary to look good on a layout, and in its current guise works preserved lines and who knows may someday see action on the national network again ?

Even if it was modelled with Hornby HST mk3’s i’d buy it.

[UP 4000]

What's Hornby got to do with it? Is the market right for APT-P? It's in a croudfunding state, will it happen I hope so,  The conflict is too many options with the HSDT and why would Rapido compete against Oxford for the MK3's when at the moment isn't viable, Read the previous comments from other members, Finger's crossed it will happen some day.

[adb968008]

What's Hornby got to do with it? Is the market right for APT-P? It's in a croudfunding state, will it happen I hope so, The conflict is too many options with the HSDT and why would Rapido compete against Oxford for the MK3's when at the moment isn't viable, Read the previous comments from other members, Finger's crossed it will happen some day.

It’s the “market right” perception I was challenging.

I fully understand locomotion not wanting to bet the farm on this model but that’s locomotions decision, as was the choice of manufacturer, whom, at least to me, seem to be priced at a premium end to other manufacturers.

 

But another retailer/manufacturer combination may see the perception differently and be more willing to give it a go and arrive at a better set of numbers.

However the real decision isn’t about the power car.. I think this could sell stand alone.. I have pictures of this car running with a Brake van in the 1970’s amongst other stuff.. it wasn’t wedded to its mk3’s day and night, there’s also, courtesy of modelzone, plenty of RTC vehicles out in the market too.

 

The real decision is to do the Mk3’s at all... they weren’t standard mk3’s.. so Oxford, Hornby, Lima or even Jouef’s mk3’s are a moot point.. they are all visibly wrong..

 

the question is

A. to model a full train of unique mk3’s vehicles that have for the most part only seen two useful purposes.. running behind this HST in the 70’s or post conversion to the Royal Train/NMT.

B. just picking one or two vehicles (say the FO/TSO and sell as many people want to make “a train” that was itself, a daily variable according to day/week/route/test determined the consist).

C. just taking someone else’s rtr mk3’sand putting a paint job on them knowing they are wrong, but the paint matches... however some prod ones have been painted to match the preserved one.. 12092, 10206 and 11074 have been done, presumably 12065, 12087 and 12134 will follow... and 42353 (ex 42002 prototype but is converted anyway), so a preserved train could be done “right”.

D. or just not do them.

 

There’s much more operational flexibility in HST prototype power car, than either APT-E or P and even the HST production, which is why I think it’s a stand alone proposition.. carriages could always come later.

Edited December 21, 2017 by adb968008

[UP 4000]

I understand what your saying, all this has been said earlier on in the topic,

 

Yes a power will sell on it's own, plenty have said they would just like the power car, Then what about a matched pair, and use there own rolling stock,

 

But then there's people like me who want to run it as a full rake, If the power cars are Rapido why don't they do the coaches to match, (it rolls on) on top of that not everybody may want a full rake to model or can't physically run a model of that size (guessing about 2.6m-2.7m).

 

There are a lot of options,

Single power car, matched pair, 4 rake coaches, 7 rake coaches, complete pack, sound non-sound, it goes on, With E-Train it's a 4 car unit no other variables sometimes ran as 3, as a sales point of view only 2 options full DCC sound or DCC ready (DC running) P-Train is similar although there is more options over it's length but running numbers the same and I don't think there offering a sound version and only DCC ready at this time.(still might not happen, hope it does)

 

We are the problem, they can't please everybody, knock out the power cars and use Oxfords, then Oxford decide not to do them or there 5 years down the line, mix and match other stock is fine it did run like that not always as a hst unit but it is a hst and some of us want it as a hst and want the best, in time it will happen,

 

Locomotion and Rapido know what there doing, when the time's right it will be right, keep preying to the god's or just bombard Jason's Email;

 

Hi Jason,

 

HSDT Please, Please, Please, Please, Please, Please, (keep going) 

[Mr_Tilt]

.........as was the choice of manufacturer, whom, at least to me, seem to be priced at a premium end to other manufacturers.

 

 

With good reason, if they really are at the premium end. 

 

Rapido's products, both their own and the stuff they've engineered for others, are of extremely high quality, and they could well demand higher prices. But the APT-E model was priced lower than many people expected for such a complex model.

 

And yes, I know I'm somewhat biased, having been an integral part of the team who produced the E-Train model, but I really believe Rapido's models are keenly priced and of superb quality.

[Mr_Tilt]

 

With E-Train it's a 4 car unit no other variables sometimes ran as 3..........

 

 

Of course if you're REALLY short of layout room you could only run both Power Cars together, but to be authentic you'd be limited to maybe 15-20 mph and you'd have to take the Joint Module off.  

 

 

That's me in the yellow crash hat by the way, says he big-headedly.....

 

 

These were taken on Nov 11th 2004 when we were moving the Power Cars across the ECML to the Thrall Works to load them onto Moveright's road trailers.

[jjb1970]

I was disappointed when Oxford announced their Mk.3 models in some ways as I'd hoped that Rapido would have a go at the Mk.3 on the back of the HST prototype. And I can't help feeling Rapido would have given us as near the definitive model of a Mk.3 as could be achieved.