Dear Hattons: Time for a "proper" Autocoach please.

[phil-b259]

I doubt H would be interested in an A26; 70'long and a lot of overhang at the ends is not a good recipe for reliable running on train set curves... and an A28 is too close to the A30 they've already bot.  I think the market for 1930s and later trailers is pretty saturated, but there may be an opening for an A44 on the back of a range of non-gangwayed Collietts.

 

On that basis Hornby would never have released their new supper detailed Collet corridor coaches - the previous editions presumably being 'good enough' in your eyes

 

The current Hornby Autocoach is NOT up to the standards we expect for models these days and as such does not represent a reason for Hornby not to replace it.

[Ozexpatriate]

As you will see, the B-set is consistently highest (just); there is not much differentiation between the four GWR Autocoaches; and the BR-built A44 has been consistently lower. The B-set and GWR types were all ‘high polling’ (the bracket which in 2016 covered 443-164 votes) ; the A44 ‘middle polling’ (163-120 votes)

 

GWR Collett B-set (1930-1931, 1933-1936)

230 - 2016

 

GWR Autocoach – Steel-panelled Collett (Diags.A27, A28, A30, of 1928-32)

202 - 2016

 

GWR Autocoach – Wood-panelled 70ft (e.g. Diags.E, L, P, T and U, of 1905)

199 - 2016

 

GWR Autocoach – Wood-panelled 59ft 6in (Diags.J & N, of 1906/7)

197 - 2016

 

GWR Autocoach – Wood-panelled Ex-Steam Railmotor 70ft (Diag.A26 of 1928-36)

193 - 2016

 

(GWR) Autocoach – BR-built (Diag.A44 of 1955)

132 – 2016

Thanks Brian.  Where did the Hawksworth autocoach fall? (I realize that is was excluded from recent polls.)

 

Crowd funding - been discussed on a number of other threads. The quad art one is worth a read. Without a "name"/ trackrecord, who's going to commit their cash? If you need say £50k to get a model produced, that's an awful lot of £25-50 deposits...

To me that begs the question of "how popular is something that polls around 200 votes in the MREmag/RMweb Wishlist Poll?"

 

The answer is actually pretty good - when provided by a manufacturer, but no doubt much less so when crowd funded and the price point for this item really matters - as proven by the Bachmann Hawksworth autocoach (though personally I would have happily acquired a model at that price point for an earlier design).

 

I will offer the following datapoints from the 2016 poll as a consideration, seeing they were both offered/promised in 2017

 

209 NER Dynamometer Car

199 (LNER) BR Dynamometer Car DE320041

184 GWR Brake Van 24ft – Toad (Diag.AA15 of 1918)

 

The price point for the Dynamometer car is reasonable because it truly is a one-off. Few if any people will purchase more than one of these. Of course most layouts don't need many autocoaches either, but I can see people purchasing more than one over time.

 

I would be interested in a crowd funding or similar project (this is not an offer to undertake, organise, or facilitate it) to have commissioned and produced an auto trailer of almost any type not previously available in 00 gauge rtr form, with a particular desire for a Diagram N.

 

If someone wants to have a go, I'll stump up a deposit for anything used in South Wales during the BR period.

I too would happily make such a deposit, but I'm not offering to manage any crowd-sourcing.

 

In case it's helpful for some context, the GWR responses from the 2016 poll (cut off at 163 votes, designated as "high polling" by the poll team*) are as follows, starting with the Manor in third place overall:

 

398 GWR Manor 4-6-0 (7800-7829)

351 GWR Churchward 43xx 2-6-0 (4303-86, 5300-6399, 7300-21)

333 GWR Churchward Toplight Coaches (1907-1922)

309 GWR Hawksworth 15xx 0-6-0PT (1500-1509)

280 GWR Saint 29xx 4-6-0 (2902-2989 with gaps)

263 GWR Collett 43xx 2-6-0 (7322-7341, modified from 9300-9319)

236 GWR Siphon G – Internal Frame (Diag.O22 of 1926, Diag.O33 etc of 1930)

233 GWR Collett 51xx/61xx & 81xx 2-6-2T (4100-79, 5100-99, 6100-69 & 8100-09)

231 GWR Breakdown Crane with Staff & Tool Vans

230 GWR Collett B-set (1930-1931, 1933-1936)

226 GWR Bulldog 33xx 4-4-0 (3341-3455)

226 GWR Collett Dining Cars (Diag.H33 of 1935 or Diag.H38 of 1930)

223 GWR Hawksworth 16xx 0-6-0PT (1600-1669)

219 GWR Passenger Brake Van – Collett Bow Ended (Diag.K38 of 1926)

218 GWR Passenger Brake Van – Collett (Diag.K41 of 1934)

207 GWR Passenger Brake Van – Toplight (Diag.K22 of 1915)

202 Railcar – GWR Nos.19-33 Angular Style

202 GWR Autocoach – Steel-panelled Collett (Diags.A27, A28, A30, of 1928-32)

201 GWR Dynamometer Car W7W

199 GWR Hawksworth County 4-6-0 (1000-1029)

199 GWR Autocoach – Wood-panelled 70ft (e.g. Diags.E, L, P, T and U, of 1905)

198 GWR Collett Gangwayed Coaches ‘Large Window’ (‘Sunshine’) (1936-1943)

198 GWR Gas Reservoir Tank Wagon 4-wheel – Cordon (Diag.DD4)

197 GWR Autocoach – Wood-panelled 59ft 6in (Diags.J & N, of 1906/7)

195 GWR Siphon G – External Frame (Diag.O11 of 1912)

193 GWR Autocoach – Wood-panelled Ex-Steam Railmotor 70ft (Diag.A26 of 1928-36)

192 Railcar – GWR Nos.35/36 & 37/38 Angular Style Twin Units (inc later W33W/W38W)

192 GWR Dean Non-gangwayed & Gangwayed Clerestory Coaches (1876-1904)

189 GWR Great Bear 4-6-2

189 (GWR) BR Inspection Saloon (GWR Diag.Q13)

186 GWR Collett Non-gangwayed Bow Ended & Flat Ended Coaches (1930-1940)

185 GWR Milk Tank Wagon 6-wheel (Diags.O57 of 1946 & O60 of 1950)

184 GWR Brake Van 24ft – Toad (Diag.AA15 of 1918)

182 GWR Aberdare 2-6-0 (2612-2680 with gaps)

182 Railcar – GWR Nos.2-4 Streamlined Style (‘Flying Banana’)

181 GWR Churchward Slip Coaches (Diag.F16 of 1909)

180 GWR Cattle Wagon (Diag.W10 of 1924)

175 GWR Banana Van (Diag.Y4 of 1925)

175 GWR Open Wagons – 16ft & 17ft 6in (Diags.O11, O24, O37 etc of 1911 to mid-1920s)

175 GWR/BR Ballast Wagon 4-wheel (P diagrams & BR Diags.1/566 & 1/567)

171 GWR Mink – ‘Iron Mink’ (Diag.V6 of 1889)

170 GWR Churchward Dreadnought Coaches (1904-1905)

169 GWR Milk Rotank 6-wheel Wagon & Dyson Milk Road Trailer (Diag.O49 of 1932)

168 GWR Siphon H – External Frame (Diag.O12 of 1919)

166 GWR Collett Super Saloons (1931)

165 GWR 517 Class 0-4-2T (GWR between 517 & 1488 with gaps)

164 GWR Duke 4-4-0 (9054-9091, originally 3252-3291, 3312-3331)

164 GWR Collett Slip Coaches (Diag.F24 of 1938)

163 Railcar – GWR No.1 Streamlined Style (‘Flying Banana’)

 

* (Actually the "high-polling" cutoff was 164 votes.)

 

I can't imagine why I highlighted the toplights and slip coach. 

 

All this makes me wonder whether there is any meaningful correlation between relative polling numbers and sales of products ultimately brought to market. Retail price is a huge factor, but also influencing purchases are utility (including things like brake vans which will always sell) and novelty (which I would break down into two categories - uniquely desirable, like the GNR Stirling and the LNER dynamometer car, and niche desirable ,like the Great Bear).

Edited July 19, 2017 by Ozexpatriate

[rue_d_etropal]

I think we need to real. Much of the new high class developent has been done when it was relatively cheap to do so, and it was possible to cross siunbsidise costs of new models, by continuing with olde models. Prices are rising, and there are not enough people willing to spend even more money. I would suggest getting a kickstarter campaign started to see just how many would be prepared to pay.

[The Johnster]

That polling list shows that I am badly out of touch and should not be paid any attention to; I am flattered as this must make me a highly individual and unique person, which how I usually justify being 'differently right'!  The most desired auto trailers on it are those already in production for many years, and as I've said I thing any attempt to produce a better version of A27/8/30 will simply result in Hornby retooling their existing model; they have already saved themselves the cost of research and development of it, and could have it on the shelves fairly quickly at about £60 a pop.  This would be a move in the right direction as the model would now be of a better quality and owners of older versions will want to upgrade.  Good news from my perspective is that there is not a huge gap between the most and least polled for auto trailers, and anyone not wanting to head to head with Hornby in the trailer market might go for something earlier and panelled.

 

My longed for A44 and companion all 3rd are not even mentioned (though Collett non gangwayed that can be converted to them do get a look in)!

 

Interesting that so many of the higher scoring items are for models previously produced and obviously missed; this suggests that the original producers got their homework right and that my point about market saturation is not as valid as I thought it was.  The wishliseters who voted presumably assume an improvement in chassis and running over the older models for locos.   Surprised not to see 2251 there; was it in the first two along with 94xx or is the 94xx not there because it is in the pipeline, albeit a long way back up it, from Baccy?

 

Ok, let's say for the sake of argument that 200 people (as a convenient round up from 197) have voted in a poll for a Diagram N autotrailer or similar.  I reckon they're onto something, but as Mandy would have said (giving my age away now), 'he would, wouldn't he?'; I'm up for a Diagram N and biased.  How many more customers are there out there for a Diagram N?  Now we are getting to why it is not as easy as I like to think for commissioners or manufacturers to asses the market before sticking their heads over the parapet; i would imagine many of the 'knowledgeable enthusiast' element (not trying to be elitist, honest) of the type that want that item because they know it ran at a particular place and time relevant to their own layouts are those who voted.  How many more are there, 50? 100? 200?  That's not enough to crowdfund if 200 people have to stump up £50 each to make £5,000 to start the project off, or if 400 stump up £25 each, they'd still only raise £2,000.  Few of them are going to commit to a 4-coach auto train of the same model.  

 

Now, there are a lot more people than those 2-400 who would buy a Diagram N auto trailer if it was on the shelf in front of them, or they'd seen it magazine adverts.  Some are collectors who will buy everything they can get their hands on in quantities of one at a time and never take it out of the box for the pleasure of ownership, some are modellers who will think 'ooh, yes, that'll look good with my *auto fitted rtr loco of your choice here*, and some'll impulse buy.  Some who have not yet decided on the exact path to take will base whole undreamt of layouts on it.  Even so, what are we saying, ten times as many?  That's still only 4,000 people tops.  4,000 x £60 a pop makes £24,000, not quite half of what is needed to clear into profit.  Of course, this is the guesstimated market at the introduction of the model, some people will buy more than one,, and now we're that bit less far off clearing the investment, and if a steady selling pattern can be maintained after the initial rush, it might still be a flyer.  But you've got to admit that it is a long way off from being a dead cert winner for anyone producing it!

 

What about £80 a pop.  This is about the top end of what I might be persuaded to part with for a top class model; beyond that it would be beyond my means no matter how good it was!  Let's continue to be optimistic, in the way that bankrupts often are, and assume that, although there will be howls of protest on sites such as this, the market will bear it without drastically altering the numbers buying; you can get away with this in model railways to an extent. 4,000 x £80 comes to £32,000; we're closing the gap a bit now.  Still not a dead cert, though.

 

I think if the likes of Dave at Hatton's are reading the thread, then we are not without hope, but will have to accept that he and his ilk know what they are doing, and live with their decisions for now, otherwise put up or shut up; I've indicated my willingness to put up, though am too cagey to state to what extent here!  But at least the trade have their ears to the ground and seem happy to oblige our demands if they can make a living out of it!  Courage, mon braves, et nil desperandum!!!

Edited July 19, 2017 by The Johnster

[Ian Hargrave]

On that basis Hornby would never have released their new supper detailed Collet corridor coaches - the previous editions presumably being 'good enough' in your eyes

 

The current Hornby Autocoach is NOT up to the standards we expect for models these days and as such does not represent a reason for Hornby not to replace it.

Fair enough....but when ,given their latest offerings are newly arrived ?

[Ozexpatriate]

My longed for A44 and companion all 3rd are not even mentioned (though Collett non gangwayed that can be converted to them do get a look in)!

132 (GWR) Autocoach – BR-built (Diag.A44 of 1955)

[Ozexpatriate]

Now, there are a lot more people than those 2-400 who would buy a Diagram N auto trailer if it was on the shelf in front of them, or they'd seen it magazine adverts.  Some are collectors who will buy everything they can get their hands on in quantities of one at a time and never take it out of the box for the pleasure of ownership, some are modellers who will think 'ooh, yes, that'll look good with my *auto fitted rtr loco of your choice here*, and some'll impulse buy.  Some who have not yet decided on the exact path to take will base whole undreamt of layouts on it.  Even so, what are we saying, ten times as many?  That's still only 4,000 people tops.  4,000 x £60 a pop makes £24,000, not quite half of what is needed to clear into profit.

This is why I rhetorically asked the correlation question earlier. Model railway items sell in quantities larger than the absolute number of votes in the Wishlist poll. People purchasing more than one livery/running number combination contribute but sales volume is higher than voting rates.

 

The thorny question is by how much. In some cases - like limited edition Collectors' Club runs of 500 or so, not by much. For some production items, at least an order of magnitude. I don't know if the Poll team has looked into any correlation between historical polling rates and sales volumes of items that make it to production. (I don't know where they would get any data on sales volume.)

 

The Poll Team has kept track of which items on the poll were ultimately produced.

 

Even with all the variables, I do think there is *some* relative correlation between poll numbers, demand and volume, but it is pretty loose. What it doesn't measure at all is, as you mentioned, the "Oooh, I'll have one of those" response once something is in the market.

Edited July 19, 2017 by Ozexpatriate

[Ian Hargrave]

And how so true is that last sentence....logic and reason go sailing out of the window.Yea....put not your trust in wish lists.

[Joseph_Pestell]

That polling list shows that I am badly out of touch and should not be paid any attention to; I am flattered as this must make me a highly individual and unique person, which how I usually justify being 'differently right'!  The most desired auto trailers on it are those already in production for many years, and as I've said I thing any attempt to produce a better version of A27/8/30 will simply result in Hornby retooling their existing model; they have already saved themselves the cost of research and development of it, and could have it on the shelves fairly quickly at about £60 a pop.  This would be a move in the right direction as the model would now be of a better quality and owners of older versions will want to upgrade.  Good news from my perspective is that there is not a huge gap between the most and least polled for auto trailers, and anyone not wanting to head to head with Hornby in the trailer market might go for something earlier and panelled.

 

My longed for A44 and companion all 3rd are not even mentioned (though Collett non gangwayed that can be converted to them do get a look in)!

 

Interesting that so many of the higher scoring items are for models previously produced and obviously missed; this suggests that the original producers got their homework right and that my point about market saturation is not as valid as I thought it was.  The wishliseters who voted presumably assume an improvement in chassis and running over the older models for locos.   Surprised not to see 2251 there; was it in the first two along with 94xx or is the 94xx not there because it is in the pipeline, albeit a long way back up it, from Baccy?

 

Ok, let's say for the sake of argument that 200 people (as a convenient round up from 197) have voted in a poll for a Diagram N autotrailer or similar.  I reckon they're onto something, but as Mandy would have said (giving my age away now), 'he would, wouldn't he?'; I'm up for a Diagram N and biased.  How many more customers are there out there for a Diagram N?  Now we are getting to why it is not as easy as I like to think for commissioners or manufacturers to asses the market before sticking their heads over the parapet; i would imagine many of the 'knowledgeable enthusiast' element (not trying to be elitist, honest) of the type that want that item because they know it ran at a particular place and time relevant to their own layouts are those who voted.  How many more are there, 50? 100? 200?  That's not enough to crowdfund if 200 people have to stump up £50 each to make £5,000 to start the project off, or if 400 stump up £25 each, they'd still only raise £2,000.  Few of them are going to commit to a 4-coach auto train of the same model.  

 

Now, there are a lot more people than those 2-400 who would buy a Diagram N auto trailer if it was on the shelf in front of them, or they'd seen it magazine adverts.  Some are collectors who will buy everything they can get their hands on in quantities of one at a time and never take it out of the box for the pleasure of ownership, some are modellers who will think 'ooh, yes, that'll look good with my *auto fitted rtr loco of your choice here*, and some'll impulse buy.  Some who have not yet decided on the exact path to take will base whole undreamt of layouts on it.  Even so, what are we saying, ten times as many?  That's still only 4,000 people tops.  4,000 x £60 a pop makes £24,000, not quite half of what is needed to clear into profit.  Of course, this is the guesstimated market at the introduction of the model, some people will buy more than one,, and now we're that bit less far off clearing the investment, and if a steady selling pattern can be maintained after the initial rush, it might still be a flyer.  But you've got to admit that it is a long way off from being a dead cert winner for anyone producing it!

 

What about £80 a pop.  This is about the top end of what I might be persuaded to part with for a top class model; beyond that it would be beyond my means no matter how good it was!  Let's continue to be optimistic, in the way that bankrupts often are, and assume that, although there will be howls of protest on sites such as this, the market will bear it without drastically altering the numbers buying; you can get away with this in model railways to an extent. 4,000 x £80 comes to £32,000; we're closing the gap a bit now.  Still not a dead cert, though.

 

I think if the likes of Dave at Hatton's are reading the thread, then we are not without hope, but will have to accept that he and his ilk know what they are doing, and live with their decisions for now, otherwise put up or shut up; I've indicated my willingness to put up, though am too cagey to state to what extent here!  But at least the trade have their ears to the ground and seem happy to oblige our demands if they can make a living out of it!  Courage, mon braves, et nil desperandum!!!

4000 x 80 = 320,000

[BMacdermott]

Hello Oz

 

The Bachmann Autocoach was High Polling in 2012 (just behind what is now the Hornby Colletts) and was removed for 2013.

 

Ian (#58) may be interested to know that the following have been announced since the 2016 Results were published:

3 items from The Top 50

7 items from the remaining High Polling segment

3 items from the Middle Polling segment

0 items from the Low Polling segment.

 

Brian (of The Poll Team)

[Joseph_Pestell]

While not wanting to diss the efforts of those who run the wishlist poll, I think that its methodology is somewhat flawed.

 

It allows someone to vote for every single item that they might like to own. That flattens the result as, for instance, someone who wants one GW autocoach, but is not particularly bothered which one, votes for every type.

 

One would get a much more realistic result if each voter was limited to a choice of three locomotives, five coaches and ten wagons - something close to a reflection of what the average enthusiast might buy in a year. And if they are A4 fanatics and want to put in three votes for an A4 and no vote for anything else, why not?

[BMacdermott]

Hello Joseph

 

May I suggest that this thread is not the place to discuss the pros and cons of The Poll? I am simply reporting some results which may be relevant.

 

To answer your point whist here, The Team has considered many options for The Poll, but has always returned to the original concept.

 

Brian (on behalf of The Poll Team)

[Joseph_Pestell]

Brian, If the poll is being used to justify a project, it is fair to question whether its methodology is right and therefore giving a correct reflection of the market.

[BMacdermott]

Hello Joseph

 

The validity or otherwise of The Poll has been discussed many times. The Poll Team recognises that it isn't 'perfection personified' but no-one has yet come up with a viable alternative that is as comprehensive. Bear in mind also that The Team provides The Guide To The Poll, giving outline history details and relevant information to assist voters.

 

Perhaps it's time for Neal Ball to run one of his specific focus Polls? If he does, may I ask that the content is open for discussion prior to firming up a list. Recent Polls have started up only to have items amended or added. If Neal wants any of The Poll Guide data, I'm happy to supply it.

 

Brian (on behalf of The Poll Team)

[BMacdermott]

Hello again Joseph

 

I have just checked a recent Poll in respect of individual votes for individual subjects and am happy that there is a fair spread of people who vote for specific Autocoaches as opposed to any 'blanket voting'.

 

Brian (on behalf of The Poll Team)

[Phil Parker]

Also, your idea of limited the voting "if each voter was limited to a choice of three locomotives, five coaches and ten wagons - something close to a reflection of what the average enthusiast might buy in a year." is based on an assumption of the buying power of the "average enthusiast" for which I suspect you can produce no evidence.

 

FWIW, The Wishlist Poll methadology is clearly explained and everyone knows where they stand. Like any poll, I'm sure it's not perfect but, as Brian says, this has been discussed many, many times over the last few years and no-one has come up with a compelling change. Anyone using the data from the poll can look and decide how much wieght they want to give it. That's their job as the person/company considering investment. It isn't, and never will be, the ONLY set of data you would consider. They are completley at liberty to decide that they don't like it, as you have done, and either ignore, or carry out their own market research. 

[No Decorum]

And how so true is that last sentence....logic and reason go sailing out of the window.Yea....put not your trust in wish lists.

I get the feeling from recent releases and announcements that Bachmann ignores top-polling items and very cannily knocks out something thought to be very appealing. if true, it possibly this results from being caught out a few times by Hornby announcing something shortly before Bachmann. If I were Bachmann, I would have looked at announcing just before Hornby but the present strategy seems better. It shows how much better Bachmann knows its market than I (and perhaps some others) do.

[BMacdermott]

I get the feeling from recent releases and announcements that Bachmann ignores top-polling items and very cannily knocks out something thought to be very appealing. if true, it possibly this results from being caught out a few times by Hornby announcing something shortly before Bachmann. If I were Bachmann, I would have looked at announcing just before Hornby but the present strategy seems better. It shows how much better Bachmann knows its market than I (and perhaps some others) do.

 

Hello No Decorum

 

Checking the recent results, I find:

2014: SR Breakdown Crane (from the Top 50); 94xx (just three votes outside The Top 50); and they 'took over' production of the Class 117 (which was in The Top 50).

2015: This was something of a 'consolidation year' so we only saw the 2 HAP (which made a lot of sense).

2016: Class 20/3 (from the Top 75); 1P 0-4-4T, Prestwin and Vanwide (High Polling); Class 410 (Middle Polling, but only by one vote).

 

Brian (on behalf of The Poll Team)

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

... is there a healthy market for  a 1930's autocoach? Hard to say when folk were dashing out to buy an old Airfix/Hornby while eschewing the Bachmann post-war coach on account of price. 

Spot on. Here's the proposition for Hornby. Knock out more from long amortised tooling at an attractive retail price, and mop up 80% or better of the likely purchasers for a pre-Hawksworth autocoach. That's as near risk free as it comes, and in their present financial position they need that sort of cash cow product. I'd say Hornby are the last place to look for a move on a new version. Which is not the same as impractical for another manufacturer to take up.

 

.... I don't know if the Poll team has looked into any correlation between historical polling rates and sales volumes of items that make it to production. (I don't know where they would get any data on sales volume.)...

It's only the RTR manufacturers and the large retailers that have solid data, and they ain't much for sharing that information, at least not directly.

 

But lookit, manufacturers and commissioning retailers are very definitely being influenced by the wishlist poll in their product introductions. So we must assume that the sales of the wishlisted items have generally been sufficient until the present - and possibly correlated to the wishlist expressions of interest. (I would like to know, and maybe if I live long enough a Simon Kohler or Graham Hubbard type figure-  since long retired from the fray - might just publish 'their story' with some of this information. Graham Hubbard got close to it in the interview in Model Rail circa 2007, and was free and frank with some home truths, so he'd be my pick for dishing the dirt.)

 

We may have one data point in the public domain. Unless my memory fails me, the Stirling Single is coming in a run of 2000, in the large tender option only: the small tender option having gained insuifficient orders, which I believe may have been less than 350. How did this item stand in the wishlistery stakes?

[BMacdermott]

Hello 34C

 

The Stirling Single fared as below:

2012: Middle Polling

2013: High Polling (7th in the LNER Loco list)

2014: High Polling (3rd in the LNER Loco list)

 

Bear in mind that the K1, J15, Claud, Q6, P2, Atlantic, Director, V2 and B12/3 were all ahead of it in 2012, but were subsequently announced - allowing it some space to move up the LNER ladder.

 

Brian (on behalf of The Poll Team)

[Joseph_Pestell]

Also, your idea of limited the voting "if each voter was limited to a choice of three locomotives, five coaches and ten wagons - something close to a reflection of what the average enthusiast might buy in a year." is based on an assumption of the buying power of the "average enthusiast" for which I suspect you can produce no evidence.

 

FWIW, The Wishlist Poll methadology is clearly explained and everyone knows where they stand. Like any poll, I'm sure it's not perfect but, as Brian says, this has been discussed many, many times over the last few years and no-one has come up with a compelling change. Anyone using the data from the poll can look and decide how much wieght they want to give it. That's their job as the person/company considering investment. It isn't, and never will be, the ONLY set of data you would consider. They are completley at liberty to decide that they don't like it, as you have done, and either ignore, or carry out their own market research. 

My use of the word "average" was rather sloppy. Indeed, averages are rarely a very useful statistic and very easily misused.

 

About the best that we could do is divide the total spent on model railways by the number of enthusiasts. But that would still leave a huge amount of variables such as how much the modeller was spending on layout building, just a collector, scale(s) modelled, etc. ........

 

Only with more insight into these variables can a poll have much validity at all. Even a more straightforward question: "which of these would you buy in the next 24 months if they were released" is probably not going to do the business as many would refuse to commit without seeing the model, knowing the proposed price, etc.

 

So I do understand the difficulties in finding the right method. And I wonder if the manufacturers are really taking their decisions based on it or other research.

[Phil Parker]

My use of the word "average" was rather sloppy. Indeed, averages are rarely a very useful statistic and very easily misused.

 

About the best that we could do is divide the total spent on model railways by the number of enthusiasts. But that would still leave a huge amount of variables such as how much the modeller was spending on layout building, just a collector, scale(s) modelled, etc. ........

 

Only with more insight into these variables can a poll have much validity at all. Even a more straightforward question: "which of these would you buy in the next 24 months if they were released" is probably not going to do the business as many would refuse to commit without seeing the model, knowing the proposed price, etc.

 

So I do understand the difficulties in finding the right method. And I wonder if the manufacturers are really taking their decisions based on it or other research.

 

Total spent on model railways, number of enthusiasts - two more numbers that nobody knows so we simply can't do the maths. That's before you then try to split things between all your other unknowable variables.

 

Despite your protestations, the Wishlist Poll IS perfectly valid. Everyone knows how it's run and what the results are. OK, it's not perfect but it's as good as we are going to get. That's why the manufacturers use it as only a small part of the decision making process. No-one, especially not the team running it, have ever suggested anything else. 

[coachmann]

Whether a big or small one-man manufacturer, the same thought processes apply when it comes to considering just what to produce next. One consideration must be that there are folk who spend weeks on their keyboard expressing their desire for a loco to be absolutely spot-on even though they have no qualms about hanging all sorts of questionable models behind the drawbar.  With RTR plastic coaches, manufacturers probably have to be very careful about which prototypes they choose when they know the inevitable end price will meet resistance in some quarters.

 

Personally, I would seek to speed up assembly, and therefore costs, by minimizing the number of separate fittings on coaches. I feel there is a need to get back to basics and consider one-piece mouldings as far as possible which, allied to modern manufacturing techniques, could dramatically reduce costs and allow more flexibility of pricing.

Edited July 20, 2017 by coachmann

[No Decorum]

Whether a big or small one-man manufacturer, the same thought processes apply when it comes to considering just what to produce next. One consideration must be that there are folk who spend weeks on their keyboard expressing their desire for a loco to be absolutely spot-on even though they have no qualms about hanging all sorts of questionable models behind the drawbar.  With RTR plastic coaches, manufacturers probably have to be very careful about which prototypes they choose when they know the inevitable end price will meet resistance in some quarters.

 

Personally, I would seek to speed up assembly, and therefore costs, by minimizing the number of separate fittings on coaches. I feel there is a need to get back to basics and consider one-piece mouldings as far as possible which, allied to modern manufacturing techniques, could dramatically reduce costs and allow more flexibility of pricing.

So Hornby Mk. Is fit the bill? Despite all the protestations when they were announced that they duplicate Bachmann Mk. Is, they seem to have done well. I like them but accept that more would have to be paid for something niche, such as Bachmann’s inspection saloon or even an autocoach. 

[chrisf]

Personally, I would seek to speed up assembly, and therefore costs, by minimizing the number of separate fittings on coaches. I feel there is a need to get back to basics and consider one-piece mouldings as far as possible which, allied to modern manufacturing techniques, could dramatically reduce costs and allow more flexibility of pricing.

 

Larry has a point.  A range of simplified models might just encourage those who want something a step or two up to add details themselves.  IMHO there is nothing wrong with the Hornby A28/A30 that a bit of good honest modelling cannot cure.

 

Chris