Hornby Discount Limits

[Ravenser]

Welcome back to the hobby, the chicken has hatched..

 

I’m having a hard time understanding your complaint, other than seeing several that are complaining.

 

That's a deliberately unfortunate choice of phrase. I am an active modeller

 

Hatton's 66 is not in the shops yet, we are still looking at promotional material . Dare we mention the Heljan 17, and L+B tanks? Or the 14xx? All of them with issues that surfaced after release

 

Until it's actually out and people get their hands on it, we can't be certain its a winner, even if what's been revealed to date seems promising.

 

And we come back to the central issue - will it sell in sufficient volume to be a commercial success? Put another way , are enough people going to dump their existing Bachmann 66s and replace them with this ? Because this is not a vacant niche

If they don't - well Bachmann must have recovered their tooling costs and Hattons still have to

 

And when all's said and done the Hattons 66 is Bachmann's problem, not Hornby's. Anyone buying the ex Lima 66 isn't willing to pay top-dollar for the best model available

 

My point is simply that the jury's still out on the Hattons 66, - especially in terms of its commercial success - and will be until it is actually released. And I'm old enough to remember how similar comments were being made about how the Vi-Trains 37 would sink the Bachmann model

 

As for the rest, I remain sceptical that there is more being developed outside the Big 2 than there was 5 years ago, and very sceptical that it is going to be cheaper. The viability of premium models at premium prices is something I am ambivalent about - in an age of sharply rising costs and slowly contracting markets it's a risky strategy , and when the Germans went that way a decade or more ago , it ended badly

 

To use such premium priced models as an argument for deep discounting of Hornby is misleading. The Rapido Stirling Single isn't undercutting anyone on price 

[JSpencer]

Niche players are "not likely" to be cheaper than the big 2. They are purposely targeting high end, high level of detail and hence cost market.

 

There are exceptions:

1/ Heljan's 00 gauge reruns - which were more expensive than similar sized models from the big 2 when released in the past - have not increased much and are generally cheaper. Example the next batch of class 33s vs Bachmann 37s.

2/ Hattons have targetted a big class, now long lived and will still be around for many years to come. They don't have to include a reatailer margin on top of the manufacturers margin, effectively removed the middle man. End result a better 66 that is cheaper than its Bachmann one. I'm sure Hatton's have enough sales data in their systems to know what models to target and market.

 

Dapol's program is still pretty active, probably more active than ever with the B4 out this year and more to come.

 

Accurascale did not even exist except as advert a year ago

 

Rapido have a string of nearly 10 UK projects underway with more expected at Warley

 

I only see DJM in slight retreat being focused on a few crowdfunders, the rest on hold and we don't know what will happen at Oxford yet now with its links at Hornby.

[Legend]

Niche players are "not likely" to be cheaper than the big 2. They are purposely targeting high end, high level of detail and hence cost market.

 

There are exceptions:

1/ Heljan's 00 gauge reruns - which were more expensive than similar sized models from the big 2 when released in the past - have not increased much and are generally cheaper. Example the next batch of class 33s vs Bachmann 37s.

2/ Hattons have targetted a big class, now long lived and will still be around for many years to come. They don't have to include a reatailer margin on top of the manufacturers margin, effectively removed the middle man. End result a better 66 that is cheaper than its Bachmann one. I'm sure Hatton's have enough sales data in their systems to know what models to target and market.

 

Dapol's program is still pretty active, probably more active than ever with the B4 out this year and more to come.

 

Accurascale did not even exist except as advert a year ago

 

Rapido have a string of nearly 10 UK projects underway with more expected at Warley

 

I only see DJM in slight retreat being focused on a few crowdfunders, the rest on hold and we don't know what will happen at Oxford yet now with its links at Hornby.

 

Isn't the Hattons 66 less expensive than the Bachmann one?  Admittedly selling direct Hattons acting as commisioner have both the retailers and commissioners margins to play with .

[adb968008]

That's a deliberately unfortunate choice of phrase. I am an active modeller

 

Hatton's 66 is not in the shops yet, we are still looking at promotional material . Dare we mention the Heljan 17, and L+B tanks? Or the 14xx? All of them with issues that surfaced after release

 

Until it's actually out and people get their hands on it, we can't be certain its a winner, even if what's been revealed to date seems promising.

 

And we come back to the central issue - will it sell in sufficient volume to be a commercial success? Put another way , are enough people going to dump their existing Bachmann 66s and replace them with this ? Because this is not a vacant niche

If they don't - well Bachmann must have recovered their tooling costs and Hattons still have to

 

And when all's said and done the Hattons 66 is Bachmann's problem, not Hornby's. Anyone buying the ex Lima 66 isn't willing to pay top-dollar for the best model available

 

My point is simply that the jury's still out on the Hattons 66, - especially in terms of its commercial success - and will be until it is actually released. And I'm old enough to remember how similar comments were being made about how the Vi-Trains 37 would sink the Bachmann model

 

As for the rest, I remain sceptical that there is more being developed outside the Big 2 than there was 5 years ago, and very sceptical that it is going to be cheaper. The viability of premium models at premium prices is something I am ambivalent about - in an age of sharply rising costs and slowly contracting markets it's a risky strategy , and when the Germans went that way a decade or more ago , it ended badly

 

To use such premium priced models as an argument for deep discounting of Hornby is misleading. The Rapido Stirling Single isn't undercutting anyone on price

 

I think maybe your blurring across lines.

 

I’ll start with the easy one, I remember the Lima class 47 being announced and predictions to sink the Hornby one... back in the early 1980’s... 35 years later both are still with us, and even under 1 owner both tools were used within the last few years.

 

Just because a new tool is announced doesnt mean death of the old one.. Hornby have continued the 14xx, J94 even the class 55 despite newer competition. When the new type4/5 is inevitably announced this year i’m sure it wont alter Hornbys plans. I wouldnt be surprised if Bachmann & Hornbys class 66 continues too.

Whilst ive seen angst for Dapol, Oxford, Bachmann, Hornby and ViTrains as well as the Hattons 66 in just a few posts, there seems to be muted about Heljans class 25... can I ask, do you think the SLW 25 will become outdated at Heljan release, or the Bachmann release ?

 

Onto your comment of Lima 66’s.. well actually I do own some still, and some are quite collectible still, such as the uber rare HGK 66, and given its obscurity i doubt another will be made to replace it, despite competition in both HO and 00. I recently sold one Lima 66 for more than a Bachmann one i bought to replace it... I own a rake of Replica Intercity Exec stock for similar reasons.. i doubt i will get an RMB, FO and BCK from one manufacturer in the near future to make a matching rake in profile and colour tones... so ive upgraded the set i have by doing some modelling.

The hobby doesnt revolve around the latest and greatest, sometimes the oldest and lowest scrub up just as well.

 

I think the millstone preventing the hobby over heating and repeating Limas 3x new announcements monthly is down to common sense.. brexit is a major factor, related to £ stability. But there are other factors: prices might be rising, but in China factories are still closing... The UK isnt the only country cutting tooling for obscure prototypes, this is something newly achieveable in countries where the hobby demand was previously unthinkably small... for example I never would have thought i would own a pure PKP polish prototype class, yet in little over 5 years, I dont just have one.. I have 6 (sm42, eu06/7,et22,su45,et41) and multiple class variants too (ep09,sp45 etc) !! - and two manufacturers going head to head on the same one too !

The supply chain is restricted, demand is high, the UK has to take its place on the production line...

Manufacturers know this, so if they know something is going to take 3+ years.. why shout about it too early, as when they do.. everyone complains.

Edited October 12, 2018 by adb968008

[robmcg]

I think Hornby have got it right for their production and sales for the next few months. 

 

Lots of large express engines, and such as Pecketts.    What could possibly go wrong?

[The Stationmaster]

I do wonder if comparing markets for 'diesel' (or anything else) 'repeats with new tooling' now is s simple comparison with the market of even a decade ago let alone back in Lima days?   Something 'new' would I think have to be something really special, as a certain derby Type 2 has been, to attract a share of the upgrade market although it might bite into the 'new purchase' slice of the market if its availability is widely enough known.  as already noted commissioners do have a financial advantage acting as both wholesaler and retailer so need perhaps only take one margin but they equally might still need both margins to justify the costs involved.

 

Equally when we come to Rapido we are looking at a very different marketing model - virtually everything on British rails so far announced from them is not at their financial risk and if they do go at their own risk why should they deviate from their existing business model of producing only against firm orders (which will turn the right level of project profit for them)?  Apart from which what has been announced as commissions so far will in any case be taking something like three to four years from now to actually appear.