Should Hornby re-introduce TT ?

[lapford34102]

The real problem is that nobody has yet produced any evidence to suggest that demand for a new range of r-t-r British TT products would be any greater than for the last lot.

John, I assumed you were referring to the quality of "heritage" TT rather than the demand. Certainly N now has a solid following that manufacturers can build on. The nearest contemporary comparison might well be what's happened/happening with "O" gauge.

Stu

[Dunsignalling]

Business is about creating demand.

 

 

Yes, but nobody in their right minds will just jump in until they have a pretty good idea of how much demand can be created and whether it is likely to develop quickly enough to make the venture viable. In Hornby's case they would also consider the possible impact on their existing business. New products don't get long to prove their commercial worth these days. The only people who might have done this are likely to be working for Hornby so that probably gives us the answer.

 

If you estimated that you could sell 20,000 sets p.a. in the new scale but it would result in selling (say) 17,000 p.a. fewer in the established scale (which almost certainly delivers a higher profit margin) the risk would outweigh the potential benefit.

 

The only way "New TT" could really thrive is by creating substantial demand over and above the diversion of sales from existing product ranges. In other words, how many Dads and Lads out there want a train set but make a conscious decision to go without because neither of the existing scales is acceptable?

 

Few youngsters seem to have any problem with N gauge in my experience so my guess (which is as good as anyone else's in the absence of any serious data) is that they are numbered in dozens rather than thousands.

 

Anybody who really wants a train set will find a way of working with N or OO and those who lack that enthusiasm aren't likely to form the foundations of a loyal customer base going forward.     

 

John

[Dunsignalling]

John, I assumed you were referring to the quality of "heritage" TT rather than the demand. Certainly N now has a solid following that manufacturers can build on. The nearest contemporary comparison might well be what's happened/happening with "O" gauge.

Stu

I really meant any UK-outline TT but whichever were the case TT3 ceased to exist (so far as the mass market is concerned) too long ago to make it relevant.

 

"O" gauge is probably a red herring; it has taken a half-century to get from its more-or-less moribund status in the 1960s to where it is now. Moreover, the price multiple over OO products (and direct observation) clearly indicates that "O" Gauge and Forester's much-vaunted "Lads and Dads" occupy two worlds that rarely collide, Lads and Grandads, maybe!

 

Much of the relative boom in "O" gauge in recent years has been fuelled by early retirement on decent pensions of customers who have managed to work their way up the property ladder and therefore also have the space to exploit it. None of this is going to be normal in the future, retirement at 66 and rising, relatively poor pensions and many people not even getting on the property ladder at all until they are pushing forty.

 

"O" gauge, and the hobby in general are probably at or very close to their zeniths right now - is that really the time for major diversification?

 

John   

[Andy Hayter]

OK time for me to put my Mr Nasty hat on and ask some proving question.

 

For all of those that have said "go for it." or that TT is the "ideal" scale, I ask, if that is the case why are you not doing it already?

After all there is a range of stock in Continental outline. 

Ah but you don't want continental, you only want UK outline.

And there lies the rub for any rtr manufacturer.   You have very specific demands and requirements - just TT is not going to be enough is it?

And if they produce a modern image outline model, the steam fans won't buy it.   Half the modern image fans will complain that the model is the wrong era - too early, too late, wrong livery etc.

If they produce a BR steam loco, the modern image guys won't buy it and the pre-nationalisation group will complain that there is nothing there for them.

If they produce a pre-nationalisation model then 3/4 of that group will be disappointed that it was not "their" company.

 

Yes business is about creating a market.  That is what they do each time they bring out a new model.  Look at Bachmann and the SECR C class or Hornby and the BIL set.

Bachman took some risks when it brought out their On3 locomotives, but this range was primarily aimed at the US where there was already a reasonable market for this scale gauge.  UK sales were a bonus.

The step into OO9 might be seen as a bolder step, but there are many modellers in that scale gauge combination (or HOe) as witnessed by the strength of the OO9 society.  Go to most exhibitions and you will find a OO/HO narrow gauge layout.  Look through the magazines and you will find a number of articles on layouts that at least contain an element of OO9.  PECO have for years been supporting the market. 

 

Now look at TT.  What do you honestly see?  There is a 3 mil society (and I know they work incredibly hard for their members) but in terms of their appearance to the general public it is much the same as the Freemasons - we all know they are there, but finding one without quite some research might be difficult (and no offence intended to either organisation.) 

How many articles do you see on TT layouts?  Precious few.

How many layouts do you see at exhibitions?  Same answer.

 

If you want rtr TT, then I suggest YOU get up out of the computer chair, build a layout, exhibit it, write about it and get it published.

 

When all of that has been done, then maybe, just maybe, one of the mainstream producers will look favourably at producing models to that scale.

 

If it really is the best thing since sliced bread, demonstrate it.  Show them that there is a market to be created.

[Stevelewis]

John is  probably  close  to  reality  here,  the  time  for  a  'new  UK outline  system' is  not  now,   any such  introduction  would  no  doubt  gain some  followers  who  would   dip a toe in so to  speak, but in doing so  abandon or  reduce  their  involvment in  the  scale(s) they were alrady involved  with the  result  that  their  would be no real benefit ( if any) for  the  manufacturer.

 

Re  0  gauge,( although   a bit  off the  original topic of TT)   the  current  resurgence in 7mm I think  has  been  fuelled  by  the  availability of  RTR locos & stock, more  suited  to small ;ayouts,  ( Ixion locos, Dapol wagons  etc) and  the  'promise' of  more  to  come,  I  have  an interest in 0 Gauge myself having  been in the  scale for  many years ( I have no layout at  home but I do 'assist' some  friends with  theirs,  they are lucky enough to  have  rather  large  spaces at  their  disposal) So at  least  I  can  get  running time  for  my  stuff!,

I do feel that   some of  those  who  have  started to dabble in 0  are already getting  disillusioned with  it  simply  because  having built  small   layouts  which  have been restricted by constraints  of  space , have  given up usually half  way  thro  the scenic  work,  and  sold up! There are a couple of my  friends  who  have  done  just  that

 

I know  there  are  some  who will diagree  but  that is  what  i  have  seen happening  recently.

[Jeff Smith]

I made an argument a couple of pages back for 009 (rather than TT) which is in the early stages of going RTR.  Personally having progressed from train set Triang OO as a lad to exhibition OO as a young father to P4 as a somewhat older father and grandfather, and now to On30 (because of the Bachmann RTR stock availability) and on to O-16.5 because I miss the vehicle construction aspect and it runs on the same track as On30, I am of the opinion that for any mass-manufacturer to move to a new scale it should be RTR O-16.5.  However, from what I read here Hornby is in bad shape so Bachmann would be better suited.

 

Now, obviously the same arguments for RTR O-16.5 exist as for RTR 009, ie you have to like narrow gauge, and if it is not your favourite line would you buy it?

 

As for TT, if Bachmann isn't touching it then it is for good reason considering it seems to have a better handle on both the market place and the ability to get products to the market place......it is however dabbling with 009 with a US loco that served the British Army and was used on a number of British NG lines after WW1 - smart thinking - I hope they scale one up to 7mm, I think it would be a winner and I would definitely buy one.

[Tim H]

If you want a British outline 1:120 scale model, there's one obvious starting point - the class 66 diesel. Complement it with a range of international wagon types starting with intermodal flats and ferry vans than run on both sides of the channel.

 

If successful follow up with some UK-specific present-day DMUs/EMUs.

[Legend]

My initial thought was no, why would they take the risk, and it may subtract from their OO sales. And I think I'm still basically of that opinion. However..............

 

There are lots of competitors in OO at the moment. It's a crowded market . TT would be something completely different and could just stimulate the model railway market.

 

Houses are getting smaller. I've always thought TT would be an ideal size. Smaller than OO , for me that means could cram more in and be operationally more interesting, yet not small enough that coupling of goods trains is difficult or detail is difficult to see.

 

It's a blank canvass. You could create the standard. Proper rail gauge / scale combination. Proper British sleeper spacing and trackwork. Not sure you would make it DCC from the off,with all the play features, that could be attractive , but may be prescriptive for some and deter other suppliers.

 

Done correctly you could steal a march on competition. Pricing and the right level of detail would be key. There would need to be a Wow factor .

 

Initial models , over a couple of years, but I'd announce them at same time so that people know the range would develop,

 

Class 47,class 37,class 08

Jinty , black 5 ,West Country

 

In a transition period you could run all 6. Mk1 coaches and three or 4 wagon types.

Admittedly this doesn't appeal to modern image where sprinters,Voyagers and 66s might be more suitable.

 

I think I would be interested

[woodenhead]

Here's a headline that would grab TT a slice of the action. Hornby to do a Pendolino and class 92 in TT.

 

There is already a 66 by hobbytrain and Roco do some suitable vans so we just need some intermodal flats.

 

Course it won't happen but......

[The Dorset Wanderer]

OK time for me to put my Mr Nasty hat on and ask some proving question.

 

For all of those that have said "go for it." or that TT is the "ideal" scale, I ask, if that is the case why are you not doing it already?

After all there is a range of stock in Continental outline. 

Ah but you don't want continental, you only want UK outline.

And there lies the rub for any rtr manufacturer.   You have very specific demands and requirements - just TT is not going to be enough is it?

And if they produce a modern image outline model, the steam fans won't buy it.   Half the modern image fans will complain that the model is the wrong era - too early, too late, wrong livery etc.

If they produce a BR steam loco, the modern image guys won't buy it and the pre-nationalisation group will complain that there is nothing there for them.

If they produce a pre-nationalisation model then 3/4 of that group will be disappointed that it was not "their" company.

 

Yes business is about creating a market.  That is what they do each time they bring out a new model.  Look at Bachmann and the SECR C class or Hornby and the BIL set.

Bachman took some risks when it brought out their On3 locomotives, but this range was primarily aimed at the US where there was already a reasonable market for this scale gauge.  UK sales were a bonus.

The step into OO9 might be seen as a bolder step, but there are many modellers in that scale gauge combination (or HOe) as witnessed by the strength of the OO9 society.  Go to most exhibitions and you will find a OO/HO narrow gauge layout.  Look through the magazines and you will find a number of articles on layouts that at least contain an element of OO9.  PECO have for years been supporting the market. 

 

Now look at TT.  What do you honestly see?  There is a 3 mil society (and I know they work incredibly hard for their members) but in terms of their appearance to the general public it is much the same as the Freemasons - we all know they are there, but finding one without quite some research might be difficult (and no offence intended to either organisation.) 

How many articles do you see on TT layouts?  Precious few.

How many layouts do you see at exhibitions?  Same answer.

 

If you want rtr TT, then I suggest YOU get up out of the computer chair, build a layout, exhibit it, write about it and get it published.

 

When all of that has been done, then maybe, just maybe, one of the mainstream producers will look favourably at producing models to that scale.

 

If it really is the best thing since sliced bread, demonstrate it.  Show them that there is a market to be created.

Yes I have built two 3mm layouts, published in 3 mags- see Feb Modeller- four 3mm layouts at Southampton- 

Steve

[Forester]

Don't underestimate the number of people who are dissatisfied with 00, with the compromises of scale, the size of layouts needed to run them properly (especially with super-detail restricting the radius to R2 - or R3+ with step and cylinder detail fitted), combined with the lack of space in modern houses. I know many who hover between 00 and N gauge, either swapping from one to the other, or running N but displaying 00.

 

Those satisfied with their O/HO/N scales will not understand the problems of the rest of us. Neither will those 00 fans with lots of space, lots of money and lots of time for their huge loft/ garage layouts. Neither will those able to glue or solder up a kit in a day.

 

Those less satisfied (and less able) were perhaps like me, at first thrilled by Hornby Dublo but fell out of love with three-rail, went to Triang but hated the plastic, drawn back by Hornby Triang but couldn't get the accuracy we wanted, excited by Hornby super-detail but found it wouldn't go round our Radius One which we needed to fit on a baseboard we could lift and move around, saddened by bits dropping off but unable to put the locos back in their boxes or safely store them out of their boxes..

 

If I say many of us have very small track layouts and very big display cases - that pretty much sums up the present 00 gauge scene.

 

If that is not your situation - then I'm pleased for you, 

 

The opportunity exists for a new entrant to draw up the fundamentals for a workable 3mm super-detail, portable, user-friendly infrastructure - and then dominate the market it creates. You can make assumptions about the size of that market but no one really knows until someone puts a set out there to test it.  Live Steam showed you can try new things in a controlled way without betting the company or busting the bank.

[Phil Parker]

Don't underestimate the number of people who are dissatisfied with 00, with the compromises of scale, the size of layouts needed to run them properly (especially with super-detail restricting the radius to R2 - or R3+ with step and cylinder detail fitted), combined with the lack of space in modern houses. I know many who hover between 00 and N gauge, either swapping from one to the other, or running N but displaying 00.

 

Those satisfied with their O/HO/N scales will not understand the problems of the rest of us. Neither will those 00 fans with lots of space, lots of money and lots of time for their huge loft/ garage layouts. Neither will those able to glue or solder up a kit in a day.

 

Those less satisfied (and less able) were perhaps like me, at first thrilled by Hornby Dublo but fell out of love with three-rail, went to Triang but hated the plastic, drawn back by Hornby Triang but couldn't get the accuracy we wanted, excited by Hornby super-detail but found it wouldn't go round our Radius One which we needed to fit on a baseboard we could lift and move around, saddened by bits dropping off but unable to put the locos back in their boxes or safely store them out of their boxes..

 

If I say many of us have very small track layouts and very big display cases - that pretty much sums up the present 00 gauge scene.

 

If that is not your situation - then I'm pleased for you, 

 

The opportunity exists for a new entrant to draw up the fundamentals for a workable 3mm super-detail, portable, user-friendly infrastructure - and then dominate the market it creates. You can make assumptions about the size of that market but no one really knows until someone puts a set out there to test it.  Live Steam showed you can try new things in a controlled way without betting the company or busting the bank.

 

The 2000 or so members of the 3mm Society would give you an idea of the market size. A few years ago, a RTR Class 47 was serrioulsy suggested and didn't make the few hundred orders to make it viable.

 

More effective though would be to put up a kickstarter for around £1/2 million to see who would be willing to put their money where their mouth is to develop a basic range (2 locos, 2 wagons, 2 coaches). I doubt you'd raise a quarter of it. At the present time can't see Hornby risking that sort of cash as you'd have to tool for the lot before seeing any return.

[Forester]

The 2000 or so members of the 3mm Society would give you an idea of the market size.   ....... At the present time can't see Hornby risking that sort of cash as you'd have to tool for the lot before seeing any return.

 

There was zero Live Steam Society membership.

 

People bought into it because it looked great, was fun and was well-marketed, with excellent YouTube etc follow-up.

In the end its limitations overcame its attractions and sadly it was all overshadowed by the China debacle, but I suspect the media attention and exposure were worth the development cost of Live Steam for Hornby.

This is the difference between the outlook of a big manufacturer looking for a new product line where by use of patent and registered trade marks it could maintain dominance for a while, and a that of group of individuals funding models one by one.

[Dunsignalling]

Don't underestimate the number of people who are dissatisfied with 00, with the compromises of scale......

 

Those satisfied with their O/HO/N scales will not understand the problems of the rest of us. Neither will those 00 fans with lots of space, lots of money and lots

 

If I say many of us have very small track layouts and very big display cases - that pretty much sums up the present 00 gauge scene.

 

If that is not your situation - then I'm pleased for you, 

 

The opportunity exists for a new entrant to draw up the fundamentals for a workable 3mm super-detail, portable, user-friendly infrastructure - and then dominate the market it creates. You can make assumptions about the size of that market but no one really knows until someone puts a set out there to test it.  Live Steam showed you can try new things in a controlled way without betting the company or busting the bank.

1. TT3 is even more compromised on scale than OO, so are you advocating 1:120 scale on 12mm track as per Continental TT or 1:100 scale on 14.2mm track?

 

2. I don't currently have a layout at home as I'm (slowly) preparing a room that will have one in a year or two. I also have a wardrobe 90% full of models of which some get used and others will one day. In the meantime I involve myself with various communal activities that let me run my stock if I want to. If you want to run big trains, think about joining a club - you'll get the chance to run longer trains in OO than you'll ever be able to accommodate in TT (or even N) at home if your space is that tight. 

 

3. Until someone comes up with proper research data, our separate assumptions about the commercial potential of a new r-t-r TT range are equally speculative.

 

4. Hornby's Live Steam is not comparable - it was just locos and a power unit that worked in conjunction with their existing range; so the risk was precisely defined. TT demands the creation of everything from the ground up.

 

Launching a new scale comprising one loco, two coaches, an open wagon, van and brake van is, I venture, not going to cut the mustard with the consumers of today. On top of that, if you do diesel, the steam buffs won't buy; if you do steam, the opposite. If you do GWR, half the GWR fans won't buy because it doesn't fit "their" 18 months of the company's history and the loco either does or doesn't have a top-feed!

 

A bigger range means betting bigger money and more impact on the overall business if it doesn't fly; from what I've seen, Hornby's debts are plenty big enough already.

 

John

[Joseph_Pestell]

I think one of the biggest drawbacks to adding another mainstream scale is getting places to stock it to entice new starters. You aren't going to see huge advertising campaigns and it would confuse a lot of general public who think of Hornby 'as OO'.

In Germany TT had survived albeit on a low level in East Germany as an alternative to HO so there was already a significant amount out there and as wealth has increased in the former East so they wanted more of the same, not a wholesale change in scale

TT is a great scale but I just can't see the numbers being big enough to start out with a range for Hornby as it's too close to OO and they have up on Lyddle End which was servicing an established market, Bachmann N scenecraft have taken over so there was money to be made still A better bet in reality would be Heljan, DJM or Dapol commissions from someone or kickstarter etc.

 

How is 1:120 (2.5 times smaller) close to 1:76?

[Joseph_Pestell]

The 2000 or so members of the 3mm Society would give you an idea of the market size. A few years ago, a RTR Class 47 was serrioulsy suggested and didn't make the few hundred orders to make it viable.

 

More effective though would be to put up a kickstarter for around £1/2 million to see who would be willing to put their money where their mouth is to develop a basic range (2 locos, 2 wagons, 2 coaches). I doubt you'd raise a quarter of it. At the present time can't see Hornby risking that sort of cash as you'd have to tool for the lot before seeing any return.

 

Be interesting to ask DJMs opinion on this. That £500k figure looks rather high to me, especially if you were careful to design in such a way as to maximise common components.

[Joseph_Pestell]

Apart from the Class 66 plus modern image wagons option, Worsley Works are happy to do their range at 1:120. So quite a lot of options there if suitable running gear can be sourced.

[Legend]

1. TT3 is even more compromised on scale than OO, so are you advocating 1:120 scale on 12mm track as per Continental TT or 1:100 scale on 14.2mm track?

 

2. I don't currently have a layout at home as I'm (slowly) preparing a room that will have one in a year or two. I also have a wardrobe 90% full of models of which some get used and others will one day. In the meantime I involve myself with various communal activities that let me run my stock if I want to. If you want to run big trains, think about joining a club - you'll get the chance to run longer trains in OO than you'll ever be able to accommodate in TT (or even N) at home if your space is that tight. 

 

3. Until someone comes up with proper research data, our separate assumptions about the commercial potential of a new r-t-r TT range are equally speculative.

 

4. Hornby's Live Steam is not comparable - it was just locos and a power unit that worked in conjunction with their existing range; so the risk was precisely defined. TT demands the creation of everything from the ground up.

 

Launching a new scale comprising one loco, two coaches, an open wagon, van and brake van is, I venture, not going to cut the mustard with the consumers of today. On top of that, if you do diesel, the steam buffs won't buy; if you do steam, the opposite. If you do GWR, half the GWR fans won't buy because it doesn't fit "their" 18 months of the company's history and the loco either does or doesn't have a top-feed!

 

A bigger range means betting bigger money and more impact on the overall business if it doesn't fly; from what I've seen, Hornby's debts are plenty big enough already.

 

John

 

I suspect you are correct John and think we are unlikely to see this happen.  However if you look from the Glass half full angle and they put enough investment in for a decent initial range over say 3 years  then they could capture a market to themselves.  Yes there would need to be a Wow factor to make people want to convert. It might abstract from OO but then it might take more from "N" where Hornby have only dabbled with the Brighton Belle so it could still be an overall win for Hornby. Look also at all the ancillary ranges they could make money on . TT Skaledale, TT Skaleautos even , perhaps an Airfix and Corgi tie in for construction kits /cars in  the new scale. The Hornby group is of sufficient size and as they keep on saying "they could leverage the brand" to make a new market

 

They did invest in live steam, which as you say was limited to locos and controllers, but nevertheless a sizeable investment for a relatively small market . Arguably TT trainset market could be much larger. And of course this is the company which invested in the transient Olympics market , where many of us warned they would be left with stock on their hands. Somebody must have thought that was a good idea!

[Jeff Smith]

I think Hornby thinking would (apparently) be the same as PECO for 'scale' OO track - ie, it might just reduce demand in one of it's own product lines but with the added R & D and tooling costs. It would take a new player with money for investment, or an existing one wanting to widen it's market without risk of denting it's current sales.

[Dunsignalling]

I suspect you are correct John and think we are unlikely to see this happen.  However if you look from the Glass half full angle and they put enough investment in for a decent initial range over say 3 years  then they could capture a market to themselves.  Yes there would need to be a Wow factor to make people want to convert. It might abstract from OO but then it might take more from "N" where Hornby have only dabbled with the Brighton Belle so it could still be an overall win for Hornby. Look also at all the ancillary ranges they could make money on . TT Skaledale, TT Skaleautos even , perhaps an Airfix and Corgi tie in for construction kits /cars in  the new scale. The Hornby group is of sufficient size and as they keep on saying "they could leverage the brand" to make a new market

 

They did invest in live steam, which as you say was limited to locos and controllers, but nevertheless a sizeable investment for a relatively small market . Arguably TT trainset market could be much larger. And of course this is the company which invested in the transient Olympics market , where many of us warned they would be left with stock on their hands. Somebody must have thought that was a good idea!

I really don't think the word "invested" and the words "Olympics" belong in the same sentence if we're talking about Hornby's past experiences.

 

There are three simple reasons why Hornby won't go for it.

 

1. They wouldn't have three years to build up a decent range; people don't have that kind of patience these days. If they start modestly, how many potential customers would have faith in them delivering (say) ten locos by the end of year three rather than packing it in after the first two (years or locos) because it's not delivering on the bottom line? I think they'd need at least four locos available to buy on day one for anybody to take it seriously.

 

2. They simply don't have the cash to put up front to launch a product range that would be likely to take (at least) a couple of years to generate significant profits for them and at the same time takes sales from their OO products. 

 

3. They still aren't out of the woods with their supply chain problems. Imagine financing the initial range and the first container to arrive contains coaches, curved track sections and right hand points but one of the other factories has had a problem and the locos, wagons, straight track sections and left hand points won't arrive for another six months!     

 

John

[Butler Henderson]

I would agree its dead in the water not only for the issues raised already but for the simple fact it looks wrong. Once you get below 4mm most layouts are viewed down on and 3mm scale on 12mm track appears like a lot of fat overwide locos etc once you have viewed a N gauge layout.

[Paddy]

Personally I can't see Hornby going for TT. Possibly a larger move in to N gauge via Arnold.

 

If they did want to test the TT market how about doing a "Lima" on the old tools and release a retro/classic range with improved chassis and paint jobs? A bit like Bachmann did with the old Farish models.

 

If successful then these sales could fund the production of new improved models.

 

Paddy

[Tim H]

Personally I can't see Hornby going for TT. Possibly a larger move in to N gauge via Arnold.

 

If they did want to test the TT market how about doing a "Lima" on the old tools and release a retro/classic range with improved chassis and paint jobs? A bit like Bachmann did with the old Farish models.

 

Although given the age of the models (even if the tooling survives, which it may well not), how many of the old TT3 models would be saleable for today's market? The 31, perhaps, and a few of the wagons though all would need completely new chassis.  Certainly not the coaches, all of them underscale in length.

[Paddy]

I know what you mean Tim hence my point about retro/classic. This would be a step to seed the market at a relatively low cost. These models might appeal to those who remember the originals whilst being suitable for the toy/train set market?

 

Paddy

[Deltic]

The 'test the water' may have come about as rumour has it all the tools exist. So whilst you might consider new chassis there are pieces that could perhaps be used to produce a Classic entry level, which if a seller there could be further designs. PECO track could be used, plus continental items. But the idea does not appear to have found a suitable business case with a positive commercial potential. The PECO 009 seems to be selling well, with motive power to come from Bachmann & Heljan. But could TT fair well as a stand alone gauge?