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adb968008

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adb968008 last won the day on November 23

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  1. Ebay is an excellant valuation tool. however its not just 1 auction your looking at, its patterns of consistency. if you look up an item code and hit “sold” you see how much previous ones sold for, and “completed”, shows those that didn't sell. Almost always the lack of a sale is down to price, with condition a part factor in that price. You do need to invest a bit of time, eliminate the lowest examples, (usually its a seller who doesnt appreciate its worth, or a faulty/damaged/butchered or inaccurate described one)... then look at the trend over time. if you see consistent sales above a certain price, then you have an idea of how the market values it... if you want an indicator on trade price & demand, look how much auctions sell complete for (not “buy it now”), on newly released stock... A few people have commented on the low s/h value of 2019’s new terriers... Consider many buyers are themselves dealers, and if they can buy new from Hornby, they arent going to pay more for it on ebay...if you take out those buyers, your down to pure demand from the public... and if there isnt appetite, it goes low.. as new rrp discounting has been limited in 2019, dealers are realising higher margins, which means that spread between s/h and rrp is wider...hence the terrier s/h price gap is wider... that to me would be a caution against a manufacturer making more... if demand was higher that gap would be less as the public, excluding dealers, would still be trying to buy for lower than rrp.. if you want a science formula why not consider this for a straw man... (its not an exact, and ive rounded but its just to give an idea) 100% = rrp 85% = expected discount rrp 70% = a healthy s/h rrp 60% = potential trade (ex vat) 50% = an unhealthy s/h rrp 40% = a healthy s/h trade purchase price 30% = an unhealthy s/h trade purchase price apply examples.. Hornby K1... £155 100% = rep £133 85% = expected discount rrp £110 70% = a healthy s/h rrp £95 60% = potential trade (ex vat) £78 50% = an unhealthy s/h rrp £60 40% = a healthy s/h trade purchase price £45 30% = an unhealthy s/h trade purchase price ebays median average “auction” close price for the last 90 days is £69, putting it exactly 45th percentile... 16 auction sales unsold = 4, all > £72 (>45th percentile).. so demand lies <45th percentile. Bachmann class 90.. £180 100% = rrp £157 85% = expected discount rrp £126 70% = a healthy s/h rrp £108 60% = potential trade (ex vat) £90 50% = an unhealthy s/h rrp £72 40% = a healthy s/h trade purchase price £54 30% = an unhealthy s/h trade purchase price ebays median average “auction” close price for the last 90 days is £130 putting it above 70th percentile..., 11 auction sales. unsold = 6, all > £144 (80th percentile).. so demand lies between 70-80% Theres more demand for 90’s over k1’s given by two benchmarks.. quantity sold (rarity people aren't selling as many) and price (value), both sold and unsold. if it were me i’d be stocking more class 90’s than k1’s... new or second hand. Now compare the Hornby and Bachmann 66’s... (Hornby - 58 sold at auction, Median price £50 / 65%) £75 100% = rrp £64 85% = expected discount rrp £53 70% = a healthy s/h rrp £45 60% = potential trade (ex vat) £33 50% = an unhealthy s/h rrp £30 40% = a healthy s/h trade purchase price £23 30% = an unhealthy s/h trade purchase price (Bachmann - 206 sold at auction, Median price £75 / c48% ) £170 115% = 2017/18 rrp £145 100% = rrp £123 85% = expected discount rrp £100 70% = a healthy s/h rrp £85 60% = potential trade (ex vat) £77 50% = an unhealthy s/h rrp £50 40% = a healthy s/h trade purchase price £35 30% = an unhealthy s/h trade purchase price Clearly people are clearing out Bachmann 66’s, but I think theres a great deal more to come. Those who were buying before the 2019 rrp price drop are losing out nearer 60% of the rrp value. However I believe there is correlation between Hornby 66 being in the lower end of the healthy range, and Bachmann’s slide out... a few month in, a healthy s/h Hattons one could be £100-£120, which I think will put more downward pressure on both Hornbys and Bachmanns.. at the end of the day, the Bachmann one s/h is probably better than a Hornby, even new, and I expect retailers will discount the Bachmann 66 more in the face of the Hattons one.
  2. Agree it looks like the tender Bachmann used years ago, originated from Replicas B1, and i believe was used on J39, B1, V2, though this one doesnt have the lug that comes out of the tender to hook under the footplate. if youve acquired it with a K3 my guess is someone removed it and used the k3’s metal connection and added a pin or a screw to fix the connection under the tender body.
  3. On the lighter side of things, even modellers can get it wrong... https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Hornby-CLASS-56-00-GAUGE-LOCOMOTIVE-RUNNING-NUMBER-56125-DCC-CHIP-FITTED/303391969287?hash=item46a3921007:g:vcAAAOSwWbRd5p5J
  4. And theres the irony... Hornby probably owns all 4 class 31 toolings too.. Airfix (acquired from Dapol), Triang, Lima and its own recent one. The only way another tooling could be done is in complete secrecy, made in a large volume of liveries at the first shot. As advance notice could see Hornby open up a war on two fronts.. Railroad and a discount Detailed, but done in volume in secret they would be blindsided and off guard for towards a year. My guess-fit would be Hattons, they could certainly manage a project on this scale, and given the way they’ve been taken on with class 66’s, I wouldnt blame them for doing it in secret, plus its a model thats right in their market space... most customers wanting bulk buy 31’s in many liveries will be Hattons customers already... end speculation.
  5. They could do this with the Railroad class 31..., indeed given that prices of Lima are actually heading north of £50... theres something strange in the market place. however..The 31 is now the Missing model in the market, especially 1990’s versions with headcode boxes and and headlights.. starting with Blue, Blue cantrail, Mainline, 31413, Dutch, Grey, Redstripe & Plain Railfreight, large logo railfreight, 31101, D5583, Pwllheli pair31146/47, even god forbid 31116, thats before we get to Bescots specials and even privatisation or preservation. I just bought 2 Lima 31’s this week to fill gaps, I still have 20 Lima class 31’s, and contemplating upgrading their motors, as their really isn't an alternative..., and The current tooling isnt without faults. Bizarre as that may be in 2019, especially as the current super detailed 31 isn't without issues, and many older ones have self destructed... yet we have had 4 new class 47 toolings since, it is a strange anomaly in the market place. I do wish Accurascale had picked a 31 instead of a 37, though given the hostile territory I can understand why, but if the field isn't being farmed, I wouldn't begrudge someone having a secret nibble and announcing a new tooling on the moment of being ready.. until then its Lima.
  6. Better to remove the incorrect ones from the market. They are going to be a bit of a pain to correct the logos (been there and done that), even if you get the logo off, your putting the orange cantrail at risk. if you put a logo over the top, the old will show under. Lima had this issue once, they resprayed grey over the logo, then applied a new logo.. I guess the same solution would apply here, but thats not for the inexperienced. if they do new shells, swap old for new, but they may at least want to save horns, grills, headlights & interiors. old shells will really only be good for resprays, but without a chassis there a bit nebulous. When Hornby re-did 34050’s tender, they took the old ones back.
  7. Ive got to admit, I was initially non-plussed when the Princess was announced, but now Ive seen it in the flesh I am somewhat challenged... it looks fantastic.
  8. I did say they only did 1 run. I also said that run was announced before mk5’s were announced. Dapol make model trains, not crystal balls. when the current batch has not sold out, it is crazy to stack more on the pile. sorry if you missed you preferred one, but I also pointed out they said they will eventually more. If you cant wait, buy one on ebay.
  9. Cheltenham model centre have a bit of a sale on.. Lord Phil £51.99 class 71 £75 B1 Stembok £85 amongst others.
  10. The class 68 has been done a few times now, the last occasion included the TPE. All other versions had at least some suitable stock to pull. It is reasonable to assume there might not be huge demand for a loco which at that time had seen limited use, and that later would not have stock to pull. Since then someone else announced mk5’s and subsequently raised demand. The issue might be, that after a number of runs of class 68’s future runs will inevitably be smaller, and the costs if doing a TPE alone may not be sufficient. Maybe we need a new livery to appear on a 68, to get enough demand for a couple new numbers to be run ?, but as noted, as long as others remain unsold on shelves, i guess chances of more following recede into the distance for now.
  11. I recall that at the time, there was a correlation between Mr Hubbards retirement and activities since. I do think Bachmann could end up like Wrenn, expensive, niche but for some models there just won’t be any substitute if you want it, more popular ones will be taken off by other manufacturers. I was puzzled at so many plain black locos at the time, whilst cheaper to make, they don’t necessarily translate into sales demand, noted by the plethora of special offers on these today. Bachmann has a world of other activities besides UK, or even other product lines in the Uk (scenic etc), it may just be that they just want to play a smaller role for a while, whilst we sort our political issues out, but retain focus on higher yield models.
  12. Thanks, don’t need all the other guff, nice as it all sounds. Just need some DRS coaches now.
  13. Reaches for those packets of irreplaceable Lima head-code discs..
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