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Clearwater

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Everything posted by Clearwater

  1. Hi I'm following this with interest. I know I've been told the answer before, probably by Martin, but am I remembering correctly that the geometry of a cross over on a main line is likely to follow B7 dimensions but the points to a siding are likely to be more to B6? Thanks David
  2. We’ve been on the SDR on previous holidays and I agree it’s a lovely railway. Is the fish restaurant the former station building? We enjoyed the boat trip though #1 son complained it wasn’t on the steam paddle steamer. We were all impressed by the way the naval college towers above the river.
  3. Currently on hols on the English Riviera. Staying within walking distance of the Dawlish to Teignmouth sea wall and have made several pilgrimages. Both sons thoroughly approve. Sadly no steam specials this week as had been looking forward to chance to be lineside as a big express loco thundered by. Pleased to report that most drivers my sons’ have waved at have waved back with about 50% blipping horn. Also visited Kingswear and Dartmouth which I’ve not been to before. Younger son wants to get “a zoomer back to Paddington.’” A successful week to date!
  4. Hi Mike, Is David trading again or is he just selling off what he'd already got? Kind regards David
  5. Hi I vote 1. I fully agree that something is better than nothing and to make a range commercially viable you'd have to make compromises. I'd either pick prototypes that didn't get the toplights plated over in BR days or I'm sure a clever tooling could manage some plating over for example. David
  6. As our American cousins would say, do the math. Phoenix has put way more into Hornby than I’ll wager they first intended. I’d suspect that the current carrying value, at traded share price, is below their net cash investment. To sell, they’ll want a certain minimum amount of cash when they sell. First gate is cash breakeven, second is cash investment plus cost of carry. Ideally, they’ll want 15% annualised. The curve ball is how this investment sits in their fund and when that fund matures. Sometimes, asset managers hold investments in time limited investment funds. Whilst those can be extended, there may come a point where they want/need to sell to release their own economics of the whole fund. That could lead to a lower price particularly if some other assets have performed extremely well. as of today, Hornby’s market capitalisation, ie the value of the shares, is £75m. Let’s say they want a 30% premium to that( (equaivalent to 60p a share) so valuing the company at c£100m. That’s a lot of cash for a private individual to raise even if they finance with debt. As such, I’d be surprised if LCD would lead a buy out. If he got new equity backing, then it would need to be with the tacit consent of Phoenix. However, that’s probably not offering value to them - better to sell to market with a management team in place. I think LCD is early / mid 60s? My feeling is that he sees a large pay off for him in line with him realising the value to Phoenix. Perhaps 18m transition for him at that point. However, if he’s say banking mid single digit millions at that point, it would have to be a very big carrot to stay on. If he thinks there is more value, why wouldn’t Phoenix incentive him to deliver it?
  7. Quite but a ‘related party’ transaction for Hornby and a clear conflict of interest for the CEO. not clear, but this may have been anticipated at the point Hornby appointed LCD and took c50% of his business. For the rest of the shares to transact from the CEO to Hornby, he must be pretty confident in Hornby’s trading and profitability. However, Hornby trades at a greater EV/EBITDA multiple than they’ve just paid for Oxford. As such, if the H shares maintain their multiple, he’ll have created value. Creating a small synergy on design teams has the same effect though I doubt we’re talking more than £250k pa? I appreciate that the money he’s taken off the table here through the share sale and the loan repayment is a lot of money by ordinary standards and, to a certain extent, derisks him as even if he makes not a single incremental penny from Hornby, he can be set for life. But, if he has an aggressive remuneration scheme, he could make a multiple (10x) of that as CEO either through shares, share options or cash bonuses linked to the share price. From LCD’s perspective, a bet worth making IF he’s confident of taking Hornby to £10m+EBITDA. And this acquisition is a material step towards that target. .
  8. by that logic, of Mainline city station, and assuming money for maintenance costs wouldn’t be an issue, Snow Hill to Wolverhampton Low Level would have been quite the preserved railway!
  9. When we were in California just over a decade ago, I persuaded my wife we ought to go and visit the QM. We had an excellent tour of the ship by a person who was clearly trying to become an actor, she was entertaining. Ship is still magnificent but, per pictures below, is showing her age in certain places.
  10. Is it possible to register a general vote in every mini poll? I’ll be honest, I’d almost certainly buy, in a not too discriminating fashion, any well produced OO model of a GWR prototype in 20s/30s livery…. if there are specifics, loco wise I’d like an Aberdare, various Saints and Bulldogs. David
  11. The attitude of large, commercial venues will be interesting. Are they being more innovative in how they price lettings? They must recognise that with the uncertainty out there that a large hire rate might put off organisations wanting to hire a venue. A risk share model to encourage exhibitions, not just railway modelling, might be justified to bridge the gap between COVID closures and the new normal. That might mean lower deposits or a tiered price/attendee type structure. Surely better to get some people through than none? (assuming you cover variable cost of opening a venue). There may also be more scope for potential exhibitors to negotiate with venues at present as to what they'd need to make a show viable from their perspective. Buyer power has increased!
  12. I think we’re at an interesting phase of this new wave. Without doubt, infections are currently rising exponentially. As that’s a leading indicator, we can’t be completely certain yet how that feeds into hospitalisations and, ultimately and sadly, deaths. However, there does seem to be growing evidence of the effectiveness of the vaccines. As this wave plays out, if the health services can cope with the numbers coming through AND it allows them to continue with their other services, covid starts to look “manageable.’” Yes, people are always going to get infected with it, but if it moves to being an inconvenience for most and treatable for the rest, we’ll either have to get on with things be it football matches, theatre, model train shows or whatever with the increasingly known risk of the consequences or face long-term curtailments of what we’ve previously enjoyed. There will be a tipping point where the risk of the former position is acceptable to both health service managers and the general population. Are we at it? Possibly. A hell of a responsibility for those both giving the advice on what to do and elected to take those decisions on our behalf.
  13. Thanks Andy and appreciated it's a difficult topic with arguments in both directions which I can understand. It wouldn't be tenable for me, domestically, to go to a show that wouldn't allow my kids to visit (though I appreciate that some may not wish to attend a show with U18 at present). Consequently, I'd probably take a pretty dim view of an entity organising such an event and probably prejudice me from being willing to attend or support their events in the future, even post a fuller easing of restrictions. David
  14. Thanks Andy. One thing that I don't think your survey covers is children. I have two sons who enjoy going to shows. Given the vaccine isn't licenced for under 18s, they've not (and will not be) been vaccinated. As such, I'd be very annoyed if shows were to return but only to those with fully vaccinated status. David
  15. Hi My interests are probably more 1930s orientated. If anything was produced, I'd almost certainly buy it as I'm a discerning customer(!). I'm not knoweldgeable enough to differentiate on different Monsters. As such: My choices are: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7 My focused choices of PBV are: 2,4 David
  16. Seems impressively fast. Did they have speed cameras in the 1930s?
  17. Hi That rust effect on the wagon is brilliant. How did you do it? Thanks David
  18. A group of my friends live there. One of whom was a parliamentary candidate in the seat a few years ago. Their view is that the people in the seat are against HS2 as they get the noise and disruption, the construction sites and the loss of land but none of the long-term benefits. The other big issues were housing, and the NIMBY desire to stop new housing in the seat and a sense that the levelling up agenda meant that resources are not being spent in A&C. I think there's also an element of this being a safe protest vote.
  19. Or from a professional services firm persceptive, if they charge £1000 per hour (as they do for senior staff), £250/hr for junior staff, creating an hour's extra billing time makes immediate sense.
  20. I’m not too fussed which ones tbh but would probably (ie almost certainly without fail) purchase any new decent siphon RTR model in OO. if pushed for a choice, I’d go for 6- siphon J. It shows up on several of the train formations on the northern route and the only, out of production, kit I’m aware of comes up with hens teeth frequency on a popular auction site that none of us look at never mind compete with each other on! David
  21. Tony, A question on the DJH/High level gearbox debate. Are the DJH ones put together in a factory by a machine? I'm wondering if the reason they run sweetly is that they don't have the inaccuracies that might creep in, particularly from the less skillful, in manual assembly? David
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