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Clearwater

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Posts posted by Clearwater

  1. 16 hours ago, 1andrew1 said:

    Mike Ashley has stepped back from managing Frasers but he's the company's biggest investor. 

     

    Whilst he sounds a pain to be in charge of a football club, Frasers has rescued many high street businesses that might have closed if he hadn't acquired them eg Sofa.com, Game, Gieves & Hawkes and Evans.

     

    You don't make the money he's made by accident.

     

    Of those businesses, I'd argue there's a commonality of either price sensitive nature, brand name recognition and the need for an efficient and effective distribution model. 

    • Agree 1
  2. 7 minutes ago, Deano said:

    It does make you wonder doesn’t it. Britain does have some of the largest banks lending globally, so there is an offset. The bit I’ve never understood is, for example, why we import so many cars, when we make enough here to satisfy new car sales. It’s a poor example, but, hopefully you understand the sentiment behind it.

     

    The ranges of cars purchased are greater than those manufactured in the UK.  It simply isnt economic to manufacture all types of car in any single market hence cheaper to build at scale in one country and export to another.  Cheaper to have the toolings etc for car type A in one factory and build that car to the plant capacity and pay the distribution costs of cars rather than carry 10 types of toolings in 10 different countries and have lower distribution costs.  

    • Like 2
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  3. 23 hours ago, ColinB said:

    Seeing as most of our major companies get taken over by foreign investment I do often wonder if there is any money left in this country.

     

    That's not how it works.  If a company listed in the UK is taken over by a foreign firm, the UK shareholders receive cash.  They then reinvest that cash in other companies / investments. From the UK shareholders' perspective, they will only agree to sell to the investor if the price the foreign investor offers is greater than that the shareholder values the company at itself and the selling shareholder feels they have other reinvestment options that offer them greater value.

     

    Its just like thinking about savings accounts or mortgages.  If you have a fixed rate mortgage with a penalty fee, there will be a point when mortgage rates have fallen sufficiently that you can save money even after accounting for the extra cost.

     

    • Like 2
    • Interesting/Thought-provoking 1
  4. At the heart of the Sports Direct model is efficient and rapid distribution of their product.  They can and do move goods to and from their large distribution hub in Derbyshire.  I can see how they must look at businesses like Hornby and think we can cut the distribution overhead.  I suspect that's why they brought GAME and other businesses.  If they can add marginal load to lorries already doing a trip from the type of small towns that still have a model shop and a branch of Sports Direct, then they increase their overall profits.  

     

    As a large single shareholder, whether Phoenix wants to invite them into join the board is a good question - I'm sure they're talking.  For Fraser Group, this is not just a financial play - it's an operational play.

    • Agree 1
    • Interesting/Thought-provoking 3
  5. 32 minutes ago, ColinB said:

    You really do need to read about the dot com boom, shares were doubling overnight for no apparent reason other than someone had invested in them. Speculators were frightened they would miss out on a Microsoft or Apple type company nor realising that for every Microsoft there are loads of software companies that never made it. Probably the share price went up because investors thought like me, "why is he investing in that company, does he know something we don't " but then if he sells his shares they will "flat line", but he will have made a ton of money. It is sophisticated gambling, unfortunately long term business suffers because often they are run just to increase their share price which generally ends up with failure.

     

     

    It's also a micro cap and thinly traded hence the price jumps massively particularly when a serious player like Ashley rocks-up.  There's a mix of FOMO and "me too" going on.  If you have a large amount of capital to deploy, then even 2.5% of Hornby at the new price is £1.5m.  For some managers, a bet to double that £1.5m alongside someone who they think they know what they doing is one worth taking.

    • Like 1
    • Agree 1
    • Interesting/Thought-provoking 1
  6. 1 hour ago, The Fatadder said:

    Yes,

    It was produced by a chap on the GWR Modelers Facebook group (I think he is the same person who is selling damaged seconds on ebay).  He has done straight and curved Bulldogs, Birds and is now working on an Aberdare.

     

    The body / bogie are printed and are a straight fit on a Bachmann Earl chassis

     

    There's some good modelling on that group.

    • Agree 4
    • Informative/Useful 2
  7. 4 minutes ago, The Fatadder said:

    Hoping someone on here might be able to do me a favour

    I am trying to confirm the 1947 livery of curved frame Bulldog 3335, apparently there is a photo in the Maidment book on small wheel GWR 4-4-0s which alas is not in my library.  Hoping someone on here may have a copy and be able to have a quick look to see if they think it is painted in green or black before I get the paints out on this 

    Hi Rich

     

    image.png.a81b01007109689606cc2f1ca5a80dd2.pngThere you go.  Only image of 3335 in the book

     

    Hard to tell colour though I'd suggest green?


    David

     

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 1
  8. 2 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

    Mr Flint’s words quoted in the bulletin seem very wise to me:

     

    “The hobby is alive and well at grass roots level, but the commercial boom period of recent decades has probably run its course, having been slowed by the effects of the pandemic, the cost-of-living crisis and the ever-increasing age of enthusiasts”

     

    The last line is very important, because while people continue to build layouts and play trains to impressively advanced ages, they don’t want to be lugging those layouts about the place, working long hours to make shows happen, running shops, or trying to make a living out of a specialist kit supply business beyond a certain point. There’s clearly a feedstock of younger people, including the newly retired, but all sorts of subtle changes in society seem to put more demands on many people’s spare time these days.

     

     

     

    I agree.  Two things strike me:

    1) The way people enjoy model rail changes with many younger enthusiasts showing sometimes impressive, sometimes unimpressive layouts or techniques via YouTube.  Not quite the same as seeing a layout or a demonstrator in practice but the same mindset

    2) Across all volunteer organisations, people are not joiners and organisers in the way they were years ago.  The volunteers I see running churches, sports clubs etc similarly are all often relatively old.

     

    David

    • Like 3
    • Agree 7
  9. 22 hours ago, Miss Prism said:

    I'm not sure when the toolboxes on the 3100s were moved to the cab. My guess is the move coincided with the fitting of topfeed (i.e. sometime after 1911).

     

    Dapol does not currently have plans for doing the locos in early condition. See here

     

    There seems to be quite a variety in the initial allocations of the 3100 locos on brdatabase, so I think they should perhaps not be regarded as 'Birmingham division' locos.


    Thanks Miss P.  Hadn’t seen rhe Dapol link.  I wasn’t clear, perils of typing last on 25/12…, I meant a quirk of the locos allocated to the Birmingham district rather than the class as whole being birmingham based.  

  10. Having a productive festive day, I was reading Warwickshire Railways and looking at photos of the 3100s.  Looking at one at Leamington,  there’s what looks to be a fairly prominent tool box on the front left and right of the running plate.  In the Maidment book, there seem to be some similar pictures but others where the toolbox doesn’t look to be there.  Was this an exception, a Birmingham division quirk and doesn’t look to be there on the Dapol samples?  
     

    REMOVED BY 1910 SO PHOTO IM LOOKING AT MUST BE THAT PERIOD.  PROMPTS QUESTION IF Dapol WILL DO AS BUILT VERSION WHICH MIGHT MATCH THEIR TOPLIGHTS?

     

    Presume some of the castings from other kits could be adapted to customise if required?

     

    Also does anyone know how far south Birmingham division prairies would have ranged?

     

    David

  11. 18 hours ago, BachelorBoy said:

     

    Then again, how much are the free float shares being depressed in value because the minority shareholders have very little influence over the way the company is run? 


    Yes, minorities have very little say/influence but I think the lack of cash flow and the continued dire figures drive the quoted share price more than thr free float.  The majority shareholder has effectively taken a greater portion of the overall enterprise value through their loan further depressing thr share price (think an equity release mortgage for comparison except the release has funded business cash flow).

     

    looking at the accounts , the figures the leapt out at me were 1)  the fall in gross profit.  Sales increased at a lower rate than costs. 2) the large increase in sales and marketing expenses.£1.4m increase of 30%.  3) the acquisition of Warlord for c£1.25m valuing that business at £6m.  Looks to me like management looking for a miracle   4) the fall in capital commitments for tooling in note 6.  Suggests less cash outflow/ sweating of assets in future.  Unwind of higher than average spend for tt120?

     

    Let’s see what full year brings but I’m not optimistic.

    • Informative/Useful 2
  12.  

    Railwayana & Model Train Online Auction - Leonard Auction

     

    www.leonardauction.com/auction/auction-310/

     

    This is quite the collection up for auction  in the States. Loads of GWR plates.  The O gauge stock is also pretty stunning.

     

    According to facebook, belonged to a guy called Tom E Jones

    • Like 2
  13. 5 hours ago, Tony Wright said:

    Following on from the recent discussion regarding Hornby's b-t-bs............

     

    HornbyA1HermitR3027003.jpg.2abd040064af10dabd74a71af987e1ea.jpg

     

    HornbyCastleCaldicotCastleR3027203.jpg.fce8cddc54d15bea9b7b2179544b3583.jpg

     

    I can only report that the A1 and the Castle performed faultlessly on Little Bytham's mixture of hand-built and Peco pointwork.

     

    Being DCC-onboard (with its chip programmed, it would seem, not to operate on a DC system), I'll have to test the 9F elsewhere............

     

     

     
    Presumably a castle did pass through Little Bytham in roughly that guise in 1923/24 on the exchange trials?  Though hauling teak stock not clerestories!

    David

    • Like 1
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