Paddy
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Posts posted by Paddy
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Personally, I believe Hornby should give Simon a non-exec position on the Board. Simon’s experience of the industry and knowledge of Hornby is invaluable and would be an excellent addition in helping to guide Hornby forward..
Kind regards
Paddy
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Hi Folks,
Remember that Hornby tried lower spec models with Design Clever and got lambasted for it. It would be a brave manufacturer who went down this route again. In Hornby’s defence they do have Railroad and Railroad Plus, the latter which I believe is a great idea.
Mind you, the prices of Railroad models are steadily rising so how long before similar criticism are leveled at those models?
Bottom line, the days of low cost, high specification models is behind us as that was a short term “benefit” from Chinese manufacturing and globalisation.
The positive thing with OO is that we have enjoyed several decades of highly detailed models with reasonably large batches resulting in a plentiful supply of pre-loved models. An example is the range of Mainline wagons from the 1970/80s which are lovely models, well decorated and readily available (often as new in box) for a few pounds - a bargain.
Kind regards
Paddy
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Hi Folks,
This one goes around and around and the answer always seems to come down to "if there was a huge market for such models then a manufacturer would service it".
At the end of the day, we are not talking about the models here but rather affordability which is subjective and highly personal. One person may look at the new Hornby Dublo locomotives and consider them a bargain, others less so. Ultimately, if there is a market for models at these prices they will sell in sufficient numbers. Rest assured, if the market for "expensive" (subjective) highly detailed models dries up the manufacturers will do something different.
One could argue that Hornby is trying this with TT:120 as the amount of separately fitted detail on these models is less and the prices keener...
Kind regards
Paddy
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Keep hoping they will do a Class 47 in original XP64 livery.
Kind regards
Paddy
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It is clear to see that the folks at Hornby have worked exceptionally hard to deliver a profit (again). No doubt, like many companies there is an element of smoke and mirrors but well done to the team. Three things that concern me (and I am a Hornby shareholder) are:
1. The expected change in CEO. History has shown us that changes in leadership at Hornby can lead to disaster. Lyndon has done a good job of steadying the ship and focussing the company on growth. Lyndon also seems to have a good understanding of the hobby business which I believe is vital. Hopefully, they will not replace Lyndon with someone who thinks selling “toys” is simply a case of flashy images on a website.
2. Quality control. It is all very well producing expensive new models (assuming they can get them delivered) but they need to be of high quality. There are people who will pay hundreds of Pounds for a model but the expectation level will be very high. Hornby need to get their arms around these issues quickly as in the days of social media “bad news” travels fast.
3. Finally, the comment about replacing one website with twenty seven at the beginning of 2021. No doubt this has been done to give each set of customers a personalised experience but it also sounds expensive and a maintenance nightmare. One can only hope these websites share the vast majority of their functionality and the differences are only skin deep. I had to read this line in the report several times as I kept thinking it must be the other way around i.e. 27 replaced by one! 😉
Kind regards
Paddy
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4 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:
Yes - part of the explanation of that is all the money they are spending on digital - for websites and, it is implied, for online selling. So a strong hint of jam tomorrow. Plus of course all the added costs of importing from China and money spent on tooling new models which haven't been delivered because of problems in China.
But it is still a profit and to be honest I must admit to being a little surprised that the managed to turn any sort of profit at all. But equally non-deliveries from China have given some big savings on shipping costs although it is still investment which has not yet produced a return, hence the poor capex figure. Seems the stock market is not yet very much impressed as the share price high in trading so far to day only managed to get up from 30p to 32p and the averaged rise so far is 1.6p - so just over 5% on the opening price.
With regards to share price movements, it should be noted that over 90% of the shares are owned by two private equity organisations. The amount of free shares to be traded is therefore quite small.
Edit: Plus share valuations are all over the place at present.Kind regards
Paddy
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This is very interesting and rather exciting. However, I am struggling to see what one will run in terms of British outline? Surely, these launches from PECO must be part of a coordinated release with one or more RTR manufacturers? Otherwise, it is a case of building very quiet and sleepy GWR branch line layouts.
😀
Still, I wish PECO every success and look forward to seeing future developments and releases. Oh and made in the UK to boot!
Kind regards
Paddy
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Hi Folks,
I know this thread is about Hornby's tier system but it does feel a wee bit unfair that only their "prices" come in for examination. Prices have gone up for most suppliers of model railways and there are various reasons for this. The one thing I suspect is true for them all is that very little "profiteering" is going on. I also think that focussing on the "price" misses the point and one should really talk about "value". The definition of "value" will differ from person to person and covers almost all things in life. If price was our only concern then we would all drive around in Dacia Sanderos (other low cost vehicles are availabe) rather than paying "inflated prices" for Audi, BMW, Mercedes etc.
The bottom line is that what I may consider reasonable value for a model may be significantly different from others (could be higher or lower). Ultimately, the concensus seems to be that the UK model railway market wants highly detailed, very accurate and feature rich models. If this is true (and there seems to be little evidence to the contrary) then this will inevitably come at a higher price. If sufficient people believe that a model offers value for money then it will sell whatever its price and a profit will be made. If the contrary happens, and such models do not sell profitably then the manufacturers will have to review their business models.
This may mean, accepting a smaller market for high-end models which in turn will mean even higher prices. Again, not an issue if there are sufficient people who accept the value in the offering. The challenge is with higher prices, expectations grow and people will demand these models to be "perfect" or as near as possible. Shoddy workmanship and poor design will not be tollerated and customer service needs to be excellent when issues do occur. I am reminded of a story that an Audi salesman told me many years ago. At the time, the salesman was working for VW and they had a VW Golf advert on television where a chap was being driven mad by a squeak in the car. The tag line, was that the squeak was his partner's earring and not the wonderfully engineered and high quality (more expensive) Golf. The challenge was that, VW owners took the advert literally and according to the salesman the dealership was inundated with customers cars where every small issue was highlighted and expected to be fixed.
If there is a maximum price people are willing to pay for a model train and we exceed this then we may have to accept our cloth being cut accordingly. We may want all manner of details and features but this simply may not be possible at that price point. Models will have to become less complex to lower the price or the market really does become a toy for rich people (as it was in the days of Bassett Lowke etc.). The thing to remember though, is that even in the 1930s this created an opportunity for othese to enter the market. Hornby Dublo was considered revolutionary when launched and a few decades later, overpriced and undercut by Tri-ang. History may repeat itself...
If not, then I suppose this is where the second-hand market comes in and people's ability to model. Fortunately, in OO there have been many years where very good models have been released. These older releases may not offer all the "Bells and Whistles" of today's models but they are still very acceptable. One may have to compromise and look for the value in a Hornby Merchant Navy from the year 2000 rather than lusting after the 202x version.
Don't get me wrong, I do feel and understand the frustration that some people express over ever rising prices. These changes not only affect model railways but many other consumer products. Take a look at the price of white goods as an example. Many of us have become used to having what we want, when we want it at low prices. In large part, this has been made possible due to the ridiculously low manufacturing costs in China and gloabalisation. The "West" has been able to import deflation from these countries and mask the real structural issues within our own economies. All this has been funded by massive amounts of personal and governmental debt. The world is changing with some seasoned commentators predicting a move away from offshore production especially for strategic and tactical products/services. We may all have to accept that going forward the cost of product/services will rise and outstrip incomes resulting in a perceivable drop in living standards (which is a personal value again).
We live in interesting times... (and that is a huge understatement).
EDIT: I should have added that I am an N Gauge modeller so our back catalogue is somewhat limited compared to OO. 😉
Kind regards
Paddy
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On 05/06/2021 at 11:48, Wheatley said:
Some of it is downright dangerous. You can, for example, run a Hornby set in a paddling pool (really, I was surprised too) and it is TOTALLY NOT DANGEROUS because the Youtuber involved (yes, it's him) SAID SO IN CAPITALS BECAUSE IT'S ONLY 12VOLTS.
No mention of what happens when little Johny goes to unplug the controller from the 240v extention trailing across the garden with wet hands.
Hi @Wheatley
This one really surprised me as well. I know the person in question can be a wee bit silly on occassion but he obviously has some talent and skills. The eletric/paddling pool video went far beyond silly and I agree positively dangerous. The young chap should put his efforts in to more productive persuits like his current series on building an OO loco from scratch (IMHO).
Kind regards
Paddy
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Hi John ( @Dunsignalling)
Definately, having one's own manufacturing facility would have to be a medium to long term goal. Having said that, how long have these issues around Hornby been going? It would require a significant investment but never say never...
As to ownership, did not realise that but as with most things in life I am sure there are ways. I thought Rapido had its own factory or am I wrong?
Anyway, as a shareholder and modeller I want to see Hornby prosper and get back to being the icon it should be.
Kind regards
Paddy
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14 minutes ago, 30801 said:
By the time anything gets to Margate it's way too late. Hornby need to have words with their contract manufacturers.
In typically jaunty fashion the instructions Rapido provide refer to testing as being given a whizz forwards and backwards for thirty seconds so expect to do some running in. I doubt anything from Hornby gets more than that.
Hi @30801
Oh, I totally agree with you but until they get the QC issues resolved at source they need to take the hit and inspect in Margate. We all know this is not the right way to do it (expensive etc.) but it needs to be done. The Hush Hush seems to have been another problem child which has ruined the experience for several of their customers. Unfortunately, in these days of social media our mistakes/shortcomings rarely remain private!
The elephant in the room is should Hornby group get back in to manufacturing? This question has been covered numerous times on various forums and we all know the arguments about cost etc. However, there is merit to being in control of one's own destiny. Given the broad nature of Hornby's portfolio, it could be argued that setting up their own manufacturing facility could be made to pay. I am not suggesting that production should be brought back to the UK (that train has probably now departed for good unless you are selling really high end/tech products) but setting up their own facility in China or some other lower cost centre where the appropriate skills can be found.
Is it high risk? Yes, but it will allow Hornby to be in control and not have their business buffetted by various suppliers. Ultimately, it comes down to do you want to be a commissioner or manufacturer. If you cannot do the former effectively then look at the latter.
Kind regards
Paddy
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Another thing that frustrates me with Hornby (railways) is the marketing seems to be all over the place. They have an amazing brand like "Bassett-Lowke" and they waste it on steam punk - why? Bassett-Lowke was crying out to be used as a launch vehicle for Hornby entering the O gauge market at some future point. Instead, Hornby uses B-L to market a bunch of old tool products with bits of scrap stuck all over them? There is nothing wrong with steam punk modelling but should it really be a priority for Hornby?
Also, what is going on with Horby Dublo? By all means have a retro/heritage (high price) range but stick to remaking the original HD releases initially. You are selling to a collector base, I would want releases of Duchess, A4, N2, etc. and even some tinplate coaches? Instead, you get a mix of 2-rail products (new designs, coaches from standard range etc.) all at high prices and supplied in HD 3-Rail packaging!
For me, this all shouts at a lack of joined up thinking and a scatter gun approach of "how can we make some money". The risk here is that you devalue your brand and confuse your customer base.
Hornby need to get back to basics and their #1 priority needs to be product quality and customer satisfaction. There should be a zero tollerance on poor quality with nothing leaving Margate that is incorrectly made or runs poorly. If the odd item escapes in to the wild then the issue should be resolved quickly and to the customer's total satisfaction. At present, you have a company trying to sell at high prices to a customer base who does not trust them to deliver. If Hornby get the quality sorted, then their customers may not "like" the prices but they will say "you get what you pay for". Companies like BMW, Audi, Lexus, Apple etc. have been doing this for decades.
Kind regards
Paddy
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On 05/02/2022 at 15:40, Classsix T said:
I'm sure yourself or Mike will be ready to correct me (indeed I'd be appreciative of confirmation or otherwise), but if Hornby did fold, wouldn't the debtors then descend to recoup their monies by selling off tooling etc as assets?
If that is the case, Hornby is more likely to pay off it's debts, or at least maintain an income stream, as a whole is is not?
C6T.
Hornby is effectively a private company as the vast majority of its shares are owned by Pheonix Asset Management. As long as PAM are happy to underwrite Hornby, they will continue in their current form.
Disclosure - I am a Hornby shareholder.
It saddens me to see all the recent reports of product quality issues that seem to have hit Hornby. The vast majority of the people working for the company seem very passionate about what they do and I am sure they did not want these issues to occur. There is no doubt Hornby are acting aggressively in the market but that is business. Not all companies are "touchy feely", think of Microsoft in the past, Oracle etc. and these are rather successful!
Hornby is a small company and I fear that they are spreading their resources too thin. Their competitors are able to focus and cherry pick which reduces potential risk. Hornby seem wedded to the notion that they are an "all things to all people" model company. Given Hornby's size this may be the wrong approach commercially although I respect them enormously for trying (as a modeller). There could be merit is splitting the company up or atleast forming independent business units with their own P&L but under a centralised back office. Off the top of my head, this could be Railways (Hornby, Oxford Rail, LIMA etc., Cars (Scalextrix, CORGI, Oxford etc.) and Models (Airfix, Humbrol etc.).
Kind regards
Paddy
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On 05/02/2022 at 12:54, The Stationmaster said:
I reckon your latter comment ignores the main internal 'heir apparent' (or indeed two potential internal 'heirs' neither of whom is SK who is further down the pecking order). The new CEO might well not reflect Titgate in any way at all although maybe a possible departure might.
I wonder if the change in CEO is related to Henry de Zoete joining the Board recently? Could Henry be stepping up? May be it is one of those moves companies make from time to time where the CEO search is not able to find any suitable candidate so Lyndon then remains as both Chairmain and CEO.
Kind regards
Paddy
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On 27/04/2021 at 21:58, Golden Fleece 30 said:
Hi Paddy,
That is a Fox 00 one I have had for quite a few years and had forgotten about it and found it while searching for 00/Dublo to sell. A little overscale for TT but it will do and save my pennies for something else.
Garry
Thanks Garry. Sadly too big for N Gauge then I suspect.Kind regards
Paddy
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Hi Gary,
Looking good. As a matter of interest, where did you get your CONDOR headboard?
Many thanks
Paddy
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Well, my N Gauge layout is called HOLLERTON JUNCTION!
Kind regards
Paddy
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Hi @Brian-1c
It depends on your point of view. The finish of PECO's latest wagons is excellent and they do run/couple well. The issue is more around fidelity to the prototype each wagon is based upon.
The PECO wagons tend to be made to a standard chassis (stretched/shrunk to fit). Also, the wagons tend to be an amalgamation of various real wagon types so should be thought of as "representative".
Having said all this, in N Gauge the compromises are less visible from layout distances and the PECO wagons are lovely models.
The plus side is that the PECO models are cheaper than similar models from Dapol, Graham Farish etc.
Hope this helps.
Kind regards
Paddy
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Another current issue with British N Gauge is availability. I am fortunate, as I have been “collecting” N Gauge stock since 1996 so already have than I could ever justify!
Back on the Poole Farish days we simply got a few new releases each year and that was your lot. However, unlike today most of their range was readily available to buy new. The models were in no way as fine but someone starting out could buy a lot of what they wanted (funds permitting).
With batch manufacturing we are in a “snooze you lose” situation or even worse, a person was simply not modelling at the time it was released. This means you either have to hunt the pre-loved market or wait/hope the manufacturer will do another run. Personally I enjoy the “hunt” but I can also see how many people would find this frustrating and demotivating.
We now seem to be in a position where the releases from the major players has almost reduced to Poole Farish levels but without the general range availability.
Kind regards
Paddy
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6 hours ago, Ben A said:
Hi Paddy,
Interesting post, but I am not quite sure what you are arguing for.
As you said, the Minitrix Britannia ran well; the Farish did not. That was what put you off N gauge: the running. I agree with this, but the way to solve it IMO is not to cut costs. It is to improve the standard of the chassis.
Kato US chassis are superb - smooth running, powerful, reliable - and for me are the desirable benchmark
But the US market has two key differences: Firstly, dieselisation in the US took place well before it did in the UK. So while some steam locos are available, nearly all US modellers run diesels in varying numbers, and I think most would agree that *generally* good running is easier to achieve with bogie chassis than steam type chassis. Secondly, the US market is huge so development and tooling costs are amortized across more models. The numbers behind this are really stark: for a typical locomotive with, say, a $100k development/tooling and $50 unit assembly cost, the price each for 1000 is $150; for 2000 models that number comes down to $100, and for 5000 models it comes down to $70. And that is without 20% VAT. Typically US production runs are 5-10,000; yet a British N gauge loco will do well do sell through 2000 units.
For the same reasons comparing the price of N models with 00 is disingenuous. Actually, N gauge models are cheaper to tool and manufacture but the lower production numbers offset that advantage.
The best way for N gauge models to reduce in price is for more of them to be sold. And the way to encourage more sales is to produce smooth running, high quality models. Then, as sales increase, hopefully prices can start to come down in a virtuous circle.
cheers
Ben A.
Hi @Ben AI am not arguing for anything really - just musing. I would agree with you in some cases the mechanical side of British N Gauge locos has not progressed as quickly as model detail. My point about prices is that irrespective of the reason, someone choosing a model will see that an N Gauge model costs the same as OO but is much smaller (can equate to poorer value, less for your money in the mind).
I agree with all your points and despite the advances in British N Gauge since 2000 we have not achieved critical mass. May be in reality, British N Gauge models should be a lot more expensive than they are to allow the levels of running quality etc. that many seem to desire?
There does seem to be a bit of rock and hard place with British N Gauge.
Kind regards
Paddy
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4 hours ago, D9020 Nimbus said:
Well, I have a Farish "large Prairie" — not quite as old as the one Paddy described I suspect — which actually runs pretty well. I have several Dapol Panniers and they all run very well indeed — albeit rather noisily. The only locos I have that run badly — apart from those with split gears — are the various Dapol 2-6-2Ts of the GWR and Ivatt varieties.
My first 2-6-2T had the smaller bogie wheels and was awful. I now have one of the Chinese produced ones and it runs OK.Kind regards
Paddy
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Hi Folks,
I have always modelled in N Gauge because that it what my brother bought for my birthday back in the early 80s. It was a Minitrix Britannia and a couple of their MK1s. I seem to recall the Britannia running well so I bought a Farish 2-6-2T. I am sad to say that it was next to useless and eventually I moved on from model railways.
When I returned in 1996, I was surprised to see how the range from Farish had increased but they were basically the same old models. One can argue that the models had a certain charm but there is no doubting they were decades behind Bachmann OO and Hornby's year 2000+ releases.
For me personally, I bounce back and forth between amazement and concern at British N Gauge. The latest models from Farish, Dapol etc. are wonderful and in many photos one is hard pressed to tell the model from its OO counterpart (coupling aside). Whilst these models are exquisite in their detail (and I do appreciate that) when I place them on the track a lot of that finesse effectively disappears. Above things like alternate wagon numbers are mentioned but this is applicable to other detail as well.
My concern (not sure if that is the right word) is that by demanding all this detail we have made N Gauge models fragile, expensive and possibly diminished one of its major benefits - more in the same or less space. Now I know this point of view is controversial but by looking at N Gauge through large scale glasses are we damaging the market? As Richard Lines once said about TT and OO... "The little one costs as much as the bigger one and I get more for my money so...".
Rather than trying to make N Gauge into OO, it would better to embrace N Gauge for what it is and have models that have less detail, are more robust, lower cost?
Despite saying the above, I know this will never happen as today's model railway market is all about detail and features.
Just playing Devil's advocate...
Kind regards
Paddy
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On 22/02/2021 at 12:37, Quarryscapes said:
I've been on Managed Payments since September. It looked like a good idea, but in practice it's meant going from 13% of total sale price going out in fees to 23%, forcing a price increase.
Please ignore.Many thanks
Paddy
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Hi Steven, @31466
I would suggest you look at Gaugemaster or Morley (both are excellent). I personally use Morley and they now do a Crawler version which provides similar slow speed running to Gaugemaster.
Hope this helps.
Kind regards
Paddy
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What happened to Barrie Davis model railways on YouTube?
in DVD/Video/TV
Posted
It is sad to see Barrie disappear from YouTube as I found his videos interesting and entertaining. I do hope he is well as he seems to have battled health issues over the years. Any news would be appreciated.
Kind regards
Paddy