Jump to content
 

High Speed Diesel Train (HSDT) - The Story continues


MGR Hooper!
 Share

Recommended Posts

  • RMweb Gold

Lets stop beating about the bush. Until the dust settles after Brexit, No Company in their right mind is going to produce a model of a BRITISH prototype in CHINA. We will all have to wait and see whether there is a pound that is worth enough to make it viable, and customs procedures that will allow import of foreign goods that have lower priorities than foods and essential medical supplies to get through the paperwork chaos. I so want to be wrong but... 

Edited by Vistisen
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Lets stop beating about the bush. Until the dust settles after Brexit, No Company in their right mind is going to produce a model of a BRITISH prototype in CHINA.

Well, it won't be the Prototype HST, but from the latest Rapido UK newsletter 17 we have this quote talking about Warley 2018

 

 

We'll be revealing our next Rapido-branded model at the show

 

Jason, Bill, and Gareth are all going to fly in for the Warley show this year so I hardly think that is an indication of a pause as you seem to think would be prudent.

 

The thing is, regardless of ones views of what is both happening and may or may not happen (which this isn't the place to discuss), while a pause seems from the outside to be reasonable it means no new products to sell, which in turn means financial problems that can sink a company.

 

There are no easy decisions for any company at the moment, but given an optimistic 2 year time frame for a new model (decide on it, measure it, draw it, convert to CAD, tool it, EP's, ..., final model it isn't a process that can be stop and started on a whim and a stop could lead to a lot of lean years for a company with nothing to sell (reruns only generate so much interest).

Link to post
Share on other sites

Let’s not forget the HSDT project was essentially a Locomotion commission and still remains as such. It will be them that decides wether or not to unpause it.

 

At least thats my understanding of it.

 

Cheers

 

Shane

Link to post
Share on other sites

Lets stop beating about the bush. Until the dust settles after Brexit, No Company in their right mind is going to produce a model of a BRITISH prototype in CHINA. We will all have to wait and see whether there is a pound that is worth enough to make it viable, and customs procedures that will allow import of foreign goods that have lower priorities than foods and essential medical supplies to get through the paperwork chaos. I so want to be wrong but... 

 

"No Company in their right mind is going to produce a model of a BRITISH prototype in CHINA" - if this is the case, what are Hornby and Bachmann doing? I agree that Brexit may affect prices, trade etc etc, but Hornby and Bachmann haven't stopped announcing and producing new models.

 

There are very good reasons for not producing HSDT with or without Mk3s, but I don't see Brexit as one of them. Costs have increased long before Brexit was even thought of.

Link to post
Share on other sites

The problem was that BREXIT came several months are the initial HSDT announcement. There was an instant choc, the pound loosing about 10-15% of its value.  The following two years have seen slight dips then recovery every time some BREXIT subject or another hits the headlines but we have still another 6 months to go before it stabilizes again and Rapido/NRM would be perfectly correct to not attempt this until the waters have really calmed.

 

Rapido also have to contend with Trump's trade war in North America too. They could quite easily find themselves with toys having a 25% import duty tomorrow morning if Trump fancied it.

 

If a company has resources to spare and can absorb such shocks, it can temp to do more grey areas like all new Mk3s. If not, then stick to surer bets.

Link to post
Share on other sites

  • RMweb Premium

I’m truly puzzled by this want for an HSDT power car. What you going to run it with? Will there be a dummy car for other end ? I get that some people might want to buy the whole train .I have been surprised at people signing up for a 14 coach APT , so I suppose there may be an equivalent number looking for an HSDT . But why would you buy just a power car. Wouldn’t that just look out of place on any railway layout?

 

There are a lot of business risks out there. Currency must be the biggest. If I were to take a punt on anything I think it would be on a prototype that would be much more useful on a layout than this .

Edited by Legend
Link to post
Share on other sites

  • RMweb Premium

Well, you don't necessarily need Mk.3 coaches to run with it.

Thanks Bernard. Yes was aware of trains like that, but I think these are even less likely to be modelled. Reminds me of the Frankenstein locomotive exchange models that Hornby did , with locos and tenders mixed for the 1948 loco exchanges . They didn’t exactly fly off the shelves.

Link to post
Share on other sites

  • RMweb Gold

Personally I'd just like to have one. Would give it a run out on Summat Colliery for a giggle on a Sunday, maybe with 16 tonners LOL

 

An O gauge one could run on Fourgig East, with a couple of MK3s and a class 25 (for now)

Edited by RedgateModels
Link to post
Share on other sites

  • RMweb Premium

Call me a cynic, but if Rapido offered the definitive OO model of a Mk.3 for £80-100 an awful lot of those who have criticised the Oxford model would suddenly decide it wasn't that bad after all.

Link to post
Share on other sites

  • RMweb Premium

Thanks Bernard. Yes was aware of trains like that, but I think these are even less likely to be modelled. Reminds me of the Frankenstein locomotive exchange models that Hornby did , with locos and tenders mixed for the 1948 loco exchanges . They didn’t exactly fly off the shelves.

 

How about a single brake van: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Rail_Class_41_(HST)

 

Or perhaps you've bought a few too many HST power cars:

https://www.flickr.com/photos/86020500@N06/26284085304

 

 

Steven B

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Given the market they serve, and how very happy that market is with the existing Oxford Mk3 tooling, there is no reason for Oxford to spend more money fixing flaws that their customer base don't care about.

You're kinda missing the point there... In any such collaboration, Rapido would require the Oxford MK3 brought closer to their (Rapido's) ideals. Some new/revised tooling in conjunction with the new slides for the existing tooling (where appropriate) even if paid for by Rapido in full would be considerably cheaper than tooling up from scratch (for Rapido). Theoretically Oxford wouldn't need to necessarily "spend more money fixing flaws that their customer base don't care about".

Link to post
Share on other sites

Call me a cynic, but if Rapido offered the definitive OO model of a Mk.3 for £80-100 an awful lot of those who have criticised the Oxford model would suddenly decide it wasn't that bad after all.

 

It is safe bet that being a high end product, Bachmann DCC fitted Mk 2Fs would be the lowest price we could hope for, for a Rapido Mk3 that will doubtless have lighting but controlled via a magnet switch instead of DCC.

Link to post
Share on other sites

To my mind, there's a clear opportunity for a collaboration between Oxford and Rapido here. The prototype MK3's are primarily going to be used with any Rapido made power cars in any case.

m :)

 

 

The NRM did consider Hornby and Oxford to produce the Mk3s once Rapido dropped out due to Oxfords announcement. I guess the negotiation did not get far (or get started) when it was postponed.

 

It would be for the NRM to co-ordinate this like they are co-ordinating Hornby Mallards with Rapido Dynamomters.

 

I don't think a Rapido & Oxford would work unless it was Rapido selling Oxford Mk3 under their brand. Something that won't be in Rapido's interest. Shared design and factory use would also see a complex conflict of interest resulting in failure. Its not using BMW engines in a Toyota. The only area of use there would be if one was a great wheel supplier and the other needed wheels... hardly a massive co-operation and more a sourcing of parts exercise.

Link to post
Share on other sites

You're kinda missing the point there... In any such collaboration, Rapido would require the Oxford MK3 brought closer to their (Rapido's) ideals. Some new/revised tooling in conjunction with the new slides for the existing tooling (where appropriate) even if paid for by Rapido in full would be considerably cheaper than tooling up from scratch (for Rapido). Theoretically Oxford wouldn't need to necessarily "spend more money fixing flaws that their customer base don't care about".

 

1) why would Rapido invest significant money fixing the Oxford tooling when Rapido would not be able to benefit from the long term re-run potential of said investment?

 

2) the Oxford tooling would require significant changes, in many cases new tooling with the old figuratively speaking thrown out, to bring it up to a Rapido standard.  We aren't talking about a couple of tweaks.  Even before checking the rest of the model, the bottom of the Oxford Mk3 is entirely incorrect and an entirely new interior would need to be done.  So if we guess at least half the tooling needs to be entirely replaced that eliminates the "considerably cheaper" argument.

 

3) given the long running saga of the Locomotion Oxford Dean Goods (which I admittedly only glanced at so could be misinformed) I don't know that either Oxford or Locomotion will be in any hurry to have another attempt.

 

4) to repeat, Oxford Rail are presumably profitable operating in a segment of the market that they have come to dominate (at least with their limited so far range) by offering a consistent standard at a consistent price unlike their main competitors scattershot approach.  There is no upside for Oxford to attempt this pairing, just as their is only downsides to Rapido attempting this.

Link to post
Share on other sites

1) why would Rapido invest significant money fixing the Oxford tooling when Rapido would not be able to benefit from the long term re-run potential of said investment?

Depends on the terms of any theoretical deal.

 

2) the Oxford tooling would require significant changes, in many cases new tooling with the old figuratively speaking thrown out, to bring it up to a Rapido standard.  We aren't talking about a couple of tweaks.  Even before checking the rest of the model, the bottom of the Oxford Mk3 is entirely incorrect and an entirely new interior would need to be done.  So if we guess at least half the tooling needs to be entirely replaced that eliminates the "considerably cheaper" argument.

50% is in the realms of "considerably" to my mind...

 

3) given the long running saga of the Locomotion Oxford Dean Goods (which I admittedly only glanced at so could be misinformed) I don't know that either Oxford or Locomotion will be in any hurry to have another attempt.

Who says that Oxford would have to be a partner in this theoretical deal with Locomotion, rather than just being a subcontractor to Rapido.

 

4) to repeat, Oxford Rail are presumably profitable operating in a segment of the market that they have come to dominate (at least with their limited so far range) by offering a consistent standard at a consistent price unlike their main competitors scattershot approach.  There is no upside for Oxford to attempt this pairing, just as their is only downsides to Rapido attempting this.

If you can't see an upside to a "low risk" improvement programme for a product that is anecdotally (hereabouts…) losing sales because of those needed improvements then I guess you can't see upsides...

Edited by frobisher
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think a Rapido & Oxford would work unless it was Rapido selling Oxford Mk3 under their brand. Something that won't be in Rapido's interest. Shared design and factory use would also see a complex conflict of interest resulting in failure. Its not using BMW engines in a Toyota. The only area of use there would be if one was a great wheel supplier and the other needed wheels... hardly a massive co-operation and more a sourcing of parts exercise.

Conflict of interest is very quickly resolved by a suitable contract, as is tool ownership, CAD rights etc., and the resulting MK3's would be a Rapido product - theoretically (I keep saying this just in case anyone picks this up as "ooooh, Oxford and Rapido are working together..." which they aren't to the best of public knowledge which is all I have...).

Link to post
Share on other sites

Conflict of interest is very quickly resolved by a suitable contract, as is tool ownership, CAD rights etc., and the resulting MK3's would be a Rapido product - theoretically (I keep saying this just in case anyone picks this up as "ooooh, Oxford and Rapido are working together..." which they aren't to the best of public knowledge which is all I have...).

There would be no point. Rapido and Oxford have very different approach to design and marketing and most important final product price. Rapido don,t need Oxford to manufacture anything on their behalf and vice versa.

 

I could understand for example, Oxfords mk3s appearing in the Hornby brand. Hornby needs a new mk3 but is tight on budget right now, Oxford can sell more under the bigger better known Hornby brand. There both would be winners.

 

But the high end, high expertise Rapido team working with Oxfords somewhat more price conscious team isn,t I feel going to be a happy marriage.

The NRM could have Oxford do the coaches and Rapido the locos and hopefully coordinate colours between them.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Depends on the terms of any theoretical deal.

 

50% is in the realms of "considerably" to my mind...

 

The re-run potential is very low for the prototype Mk3, the only way even investing 50% of a large sum of money (often rumoured at around $100k) would make sense if you have the ability to pay off the tooling cost by making regular Mk3's.

 

Oxford isn't going to give up / share the revenue from the regular Mk3s, money they get to collect at the moment anyway.

 

Who says that Oxford would have to be a partner in this theoretical deal with Locomotion, rather than just being a subcontractor to Rapido.

 

Because there is no way that Rapido would partner with Oxford, it would to do much damage to the reputation that Rapido has built up with their hard work over the last 10+ years.

 

 

If you can't see an upside to a "low risk" improvement programme for a product that is anecdotally (hereabouts…) losing sales because of those needed improvements then I guess you can't see upsides...

 

But the Oxford Mk3 isn't losing sales as such, anymore than Ford is losing sales to Rolls Royce.

 

Yes, there are people (like myself) who won't by the Oxford product because we find the model lacking.  But, and this is key, Oxford don't care because they didn't make the model to sell to people like myself.  They made the model for those whose primary concern is price, and that market they have pretty much cornered.

 

But once you tool up a Mk3 to meet the wants of people like myself, you can no longer meet the needs of the existing Oxford customers (at least not with the same tooling).  Once you not only make the body correct to the measurements, but add in the details that Rapido is known for like a detailed interior, you have pushed up the manufacturing cost so it is no longer possible to sell for the £30 that the Oxford customers like.

 

Which brings us back to Locomotion.

 

The only way this happens is if Locomotion decides to pursue it, and if Oxford agrees.  But more realistically I suspect that the most likely source at this point for the Prototype HST is Dapol, who will have the measurements and drawings from their N model to start an OO model with, and who may not be as concerned about coaches to go with it.

Link to post
Share on other sites

But the Oxford Mk3 isn't losing sales as such, anymore than Ford is losing sales to Rolls Royce.

By all accounts Ford are losing sales to Skoda in this instance... And by all accounts, second hand Skodas...

 

Yes, there are people (like myself) who won't by the Oxford product because we find the model lacking.  But, and this is key, Oxford don't care because they didn't make the model to sell to people like myself.  They made the model for those whose primary concern is price, and that market they have pretty much cornered.

There's a lot of assumption there.

 

But once you tool up a Mk3 to meet the wants of people like myself, you can no longer meet the needs of the existing Oxford customers (at least not with the same tooling).  Once you not only make the body correct to the measurements, but add in the details that Rapido is known for like a detailed interior, you have pushed up the manufacturing cost so it is no longer possible to sell for the £30 that the Oxford customers like.

You're making the assumption that ALL the Rapido enhancements would be rolled into the Oxford product, why would they be? The detailed interior for example would only be appropriate to the prototype MK3 rake, and certainly the level of finish, and appropriate tooling would probably be Rapido's in any case. Think of Oxford as a component supplier in this instance.

Link to post
Share on other sites

  • 3 months later...

It is not readily known, but no one's mark 3s are suitable for the prototype hsdt set unless modified. Forget roof vents, cable connection points, doors and buffers, they were flush-glazed, certainly not having a rim around them.

It's a filing them off as well.

Of course,they could be resin cast or 3D printed.

Almost worth it for a single rake.

Link to post
Share on other sites

It is not readily known, but no one's mark 3s are suitable for the prototype hsdt set unless modified. Forget roof vents, cable connection points, doors and buffers, they were flush-glazed, certainly not having a rim around them.

It's a filing them off as well.

Of course,they could be resin cast or 3D printed.

Almost worth it for a single rake.

Link to post
Share on other sites

By the way, are we not railway modellers,not buyers.

It is a fascinating hobby, open to all, but I for one cannot afford to have such high-handed principles as being upset that a grille is wrong, or the odd millimetre is not correct.

I will accept these issues as not being a collector per se, but an operator, if something looks ok from 3' then that's near enough for me.

And the window rim is visible at that distance, as are the cable connectors, but much else is not.

As for running solo power cars, there are plenty of precedents, more than we ever realised, thanks to t'interweb.

Also, while you are counting rivets, just look at the differences in the 2 power cars after the first few months. I would think that these and our proclivity for critique are the reason for no firm production, not what they tow.

Just my views, admittedly.

Pete

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...