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High Speed Diesel Train (HSDT) - The Story continues


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The rivet counting is not the cause of no model, Jason of Rapido Trains is one of the biggest pushers of getting these done accurately.

 

While there were a number of issues I would guess the biggest issue was Oxford announcing a line of Mk3 coaches which in turn ruled out Rapido tooling up the correct coaches for the Prototype HST (as the tooling costs could not be partially covered by making regular Mk3 coaches as well).

 

Regardless of whether solo power cars were prototypical or not, many/most of the people interested expressed an interest only if the correct coaches were available as well.

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While there were a number of issues I would guess the biggest issue was Oxford announcing a line of Mk3 coaches which in turn ruled out Rapido tooling up the correct coaches for the Prototype HST (as the tooling costs could not be partially covered by making regular Mk3 coaches as well).

An issue, or an excuse?

 

Unless they whip some out the bag, Hornby aren't going to produce any more MK3s than the current range of 43 locos they are building; Scotrail and GWR.

 

Oxford Rail's MK3a are quite different to the MK3 and as has been documented, the paint don't match the Hornby HSTs anyway.

 

That leaves a massive gap for an updated MK3 in many liveries. I'm struggling to source INTERCITY versions of the Swallow livery as a full set, for example. There seems to be large amounts of blue/grey versions and quite a few of the "Inter-City" exec versions from the early years but the italic stylised version? - nadda.

 

Yes, there may not be strong sales but if Hattons can bring another Class 66 to the market, and Hornby are releasing budget MK2f coaches, there is a gap for some updated MK3 coaches, as both of those meet different wants, just like a MK3 would.

Edited by Sir TophamHatt
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What makes you think Hornby are not going to make anymore mk3 coaches?

 

Hornby have announced new tooling for the Mk3 sliding door version which caters for the current updated and future versions...

 

Hornby have also been upgrading their exisiting mk3 coaches.... couple of years ago they got a minor revamp, tinted windows, some got lighting... Last years release of the Mk3 saw a further improvement with an improved coupling system...

 

Seems bizarre to think that after investing in both new tooling and updating the existing tooling that they are not going to release any more coaches.

 

Hornby tend to release their mk3 coaches in liveries that tie in with their HST power car releases, so this year they have 3 modern livery power cars, which is great for modern image modellers, and the corresponding liveried coaches....

 

You’ll probably not get your intercity swallow mk3’s till Hornby release another run of the power cars or if your lucky they release them as a Mk3a set and you pull the buffers off.

 

It’ll be a brave company that introduces another mk3 coach to the market, with 3 toolings in place. The market has shown that 3 or 4 companies producing the same models just doesn’t work.... ie class 47 Heljan, Hornby, Bachmann and Vitrains, and 37 with Hornby, Bachmann and vitrains....

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It’ll be a brave company that introduces another mk3 coach to the market, with 3 toolings in place. The market has shown that 3 or 4 companies producing the same models just doesn’t work.... ie class 47 Heljan, Hornby, Bachmann and Vitrains, and 37 with Hornby, Bachmann and vitrains....

 

Strange no one complains about the same from the automotive manufacturers as there is so much duplication there!

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Strange no one complains about the same from the automotive manufacturers as there is so much duplication there!

38.4 million vehicles on the road, according to google....

 

Most people in the UK need a car as a necessity, There’s maybe a couple of tens of thousand modellers/collectors(I don’t know the number), and models are really not a necessity.....

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Pulling the buffers off does not turn a mk 3A into a mk 3. The roof vents are different and very obvious given the angle we usually view our models. However some people are happy to compromise. With modern conversions they can be mixed rakes but for older liveries this was not the case.

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Unless they whip some out the bag, Hornby aren't going to produce any more MK3s than the current range of 43 locos they are building; Scotrail and GWR.

 

Oxford Rail's MK3a are quite different to the MK3 and as has been documented, the paint don't match the Hornby HSTs anyway.

That leaves a massive gap for an updated MK3 in many liveries. I'm struggling to source INTERCITY versions of the Swallow livery as a full set, for example. There seems to be large amounts of blue/grey versions and quite a few of the "Inter-City" exec versions from the early years but the italic stylised version? - nadda.

 

Yes, there may not be strong sales but if Hattons can bring another Class 66 to the market, and Hornby are releasing budget MK2f coaches, there is a gap for some updated MK3 coaches, as both of those meet different wants, just like a MK3 would.

 

The prototype HST coaches is a very limited market, likely only ever to see one production run.  If there ever was to be a second run it would be many, many years later.  Thus it would really be best to be able to also do a regular Mk3 to help with the issue of the cost of the tooling.

 

When Oxford announced their Mk3 they indicated that the tooling was intended to allow for all the variations that the Mk3 had (at least up until that time).  Thus anyone else considering entering the market had to consider that they would be a 3rd offering in the market for the HST Mk3 variant.

 

Hornby have an advantage in offering a new Mk3 in that they can choose whether it is a 3rd offering, or only a 2nd offering with the existing tooling getting retired (or only used when can be justified and not hurting sales of product using the new tooling).  It is also possible that Hornby may be (aware / guessing) that the Oxford tooling can't be cost effectively modified for these new Mk3 versions.

 

We also now, with the benefit of hindsight, that Oxford has been much slower at getting the Mk3 models out than expected, that Oxford is more interested in making to a price point than to accuracy, and the question of if Oxford Rail continues or not given the changes in ownership/management that have happened in the last 2 years.

 

Which is all unfortunate for those of us who would like a modern, detailed, accurate HST because the Hornby price point on their new Mk3 indicates it isn't what we want, but have to wait for some EP samples to get a better idea of how Hornby are aiming it.

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Pulling the buffers off does not turn a mk 3A into a mk 3. The roof vents are different and very obvious given the angle we usually view our models. However some people are happy to compromise. With modern conversions they can be mixed rakes but for older liveries this was not the case.

Remember some mark 3As were turned into mark 3s by removal of the buffers and some other changes so a (or even a couple of) bufferless mark 3A can run in HST sets, I have a very poor picture of 42382 (ex 12128) and 42383 (ex 12172) coupled up together at Exeter St Davids, the picture taken from the steps so it shows the roof vents meaning you can get away with running 2 of them in the same set.

 

Of course in my world these conversions took place much earlier in their lives while they were in blue and grey livery hence me running Oxfords and Hornby together in the same sets.

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The prototype HST coaches is a very limited market, likely only ever to see one production run. 

But most of the prototype coaches are still in use to this day so they can also be adorned with most of the latest liveries even if production runs would by necessity be smaller than 'normal' mark 3 coaches, they certainly are not limited to one or two liveries.

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Tooling any model is an expensive business. The reason there are so many locomotive models is because the cost of tooling can be spread across a longer run, where people expect to pay a higher price. Each coach requires its own tooling suite, so an eight coach train may require four or five different tooling suites. The market for coaches is smaller than for locomotives as there's no 'display/collection' element in the coaching stock market, so the tooling cost has to be spread over shorter runs, pushing the final price up. Pushing individual coach prices up to realistic levels would inevitably lead to reduced demand, making such a project unviable. (CJL)

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IIRC the Oxford tooling drawings that were released prior to the tool tests showed various slides which included the prototype catering cars, as well as flush-fitting windows and the correct roof vents,doors too, so there is hope.l spent several hours studying the tooling to ascertain if it would save me converting Jouef models.

Whilst it is said that there are dimensional issues, l am yet to see them published, any offers?

I have put a hold on the construction of my rake at present, but anticipate contiuing with the proje t later in the year.

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IIRC the Oxford tooling drawings that were released prior to the tool tests showed various slides which included the prototype catering cars, as well as flush-fitting windows and the correct roof vents,doors too, so there is hope.l spent several hours studying the tooling to ascertain if it would save me converting Jouef models.

Whilst it is said that there are dimensional issues, l am yet to see them published, any offers?

 

 

On the assumption you are talking about the Oxford Mk3, there are some issues that have been covered in the Oxford section of RMweb, but my recollection is the window frames and maybe doors have slight issues and the bottom of coach (the equipment lockers) is too wide.

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  • 2 years later...

Speculation on my part.

 

Dapol drawing are unlikely to help - Rapido would likely spend as much time verifying the accuracy as simply starting from scratch.

 

But to a certain extent the issues previously discussed still apply.  The Oxford issue is at least temporarily settled with them essentially being out of the Mk3 business as long as the current Hornby management remains in place.

 

But Hornby have 2 sets of Mk3 tooling - the legacy tooling and the new tooling for the sliding door Mk3 coaches.  If the new tooling was also planned to eventually create regular HST Mk3 models and Mk3a models that would eat into any potential market for anyone else bringing a Mk3 model to market - and even if the tooling doesn't allow for it, Hornby still have some up to date CAD files to work from to suddenly bring a new Mk3 line to market.

 

Do I think one of the competitors could bring a new line of Mk3 models to market?  Yes, I think it will happen (though whether the prototype Mk3's are part of that is another matter).  If it happens though it will out of necessity be done in secret until very late in the process to avoid tipping off Hornby.

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I was assuming that Dapol would have scanned the HST prototype at York and those scans could be shared with Rapido - that alone would save them leg work and expense in the tens of thousands. Are the coaches important? I don't know the answer to that - Dapol have the N gauge sales figures and know what they are selling more of. In my case I would be running the mixed RTC / ATP power car test rakes

 

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17 hours ago, letterspider said:

The Dapol HST P appears to be a popular model, some of the coach packs already sold out.

I wonder if a collaboration of their drawings and Rapido manufacturing could get this to market in OO please?

Why would Dapol not bring it to market themselves?

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Rapido had already positioned themselves in the market to produce the HST prototype in OO, they have said rising costs have caused the product to stall - it would make sense to look at options to cut costs and get the project started again and build on the reputation they have forged with their fantastic APT E. 

Likewise Dapol could see the APT E in N gauge as something they could collaborate with Rapido. Dapol could see benefit if a collaboration with Rapido would enable them to open up other (faster? more efficient?) production avenues.

 

 

 

Edited by letterspider
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1 hour ago, letterspider said:

Rapido had already positioned themselves in the market to produce the HST prototype in OO, they have said rising costs have caused the product to stall - it would make sense to look at options to cut costs and get the project started again and build on the reputation they have forged with their fantastic APT E. 

 

I'm hard pressed to see any sensible options to reduce costs without compromising the high quality of production Rapido are renowned for.

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3 hours ago, letterspider said:

I was assuming that Dapol would have scanned the HST prototype at York and those scans could be shared with Rapido - that alone would save them leg work and expense in the tens of thousands. Are the coaches important? I don't know the answer to that

 

 

Scanning isn't the whole design process, and doesn't cost tens of thousands. Getting someone to turn the scan into CAD files still takes a huge amount of time, and money. 

 

Coaches? I think they all look like MK1s, but others beg to differ...

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I don't know who Dapol and Rapido are currently using to manufacture their models but I can't imagine it is the same company.  However Rapido is a larger company. They could block book longer production slots years in advance and fall back on a larger repertoire of tooling to fill spare slots. Smaller companies, shorter runs, I guess they have to slip in between. With new models you have to train workers to assemble it and once that run is over you may lose that skilled workforce. That skilled  workforce will be a severe cost,  especially for a small company. Could you do Oo and N in parallel and use the same assemblers on both? Probably if you could get many components the same. 

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4 hours ago, letterspider said:

Are the coaches important? I don't know the answer to that

 

My recollection (it will at a guess be covered somewhere in this thread) was that when Rapido announced the Prototype HST power car the feedback provided (both to Rapido and Locomotion) was that without accurate coaches to go with it a lot of people lost interest in just the power cars.

 

Which is one of the reasons why when a short time later Oxford announced their all-singing all-dancing Mk3 project thing got complicated for this.

 

3 hours ago, letterspider said:

Rapido had already positioned themselves in the market to produce the HST prototype in OO, they have said rising costs have caused the product to stall - it would make sense to look at options to cut costs and get the project started again

 

Except all the biggest costs aren't things that can be shared - converting drawings into OO model CAD, tooling, and production.

 

1 hour ago, letterspider said:

I don't know who Dapol and Rapido are currently using to manufacture their models but I can't imagine it is the same company.

 

Rapido have their own factories in China (now at 5, though they also do outside work)

 

1 hour ago, letterspider said:

With new models you have to train workers to assemble it and once that run is over you may lose that skilled workforce. That skilled  workforce will be a severe cost,  especially for a small company. Could you do Oo and N in parallel and use the same assemblers on both? Probably if you could get many components the same. 

 

I think you have a misunderstanding on how model trains are made.

 

The skilled workforce works for the factory, not the project, and they assemble whatever models are in production on any given day.

 

 

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I am sure I have read somewhere on this forum - that for any given model - you have to spend many days  to train the assemblers to be familiar with a specific model and they will only work on that model from beginning to end of the production series, so although they are employed by the factory, they will only work on one project at a time.

This makes short run one off models proportionately more expense than continuously churning out Mk3 coaches for example. I think it was also mentioned that for long production runs, as some assemblers move on, the remaining workforce are still there to share expertise to new workers who move onto to the production line and to maintain momentum.

It would certainly could explain (for example) why we have seen an initial flood of a model in several liveries and then a long wait before we see anything (if ever) again - even though the tooling is still there.

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5 minutes ago, letterspider said:

I am sure I have read somewhere on this forum - that for any given model - you have to spend many days  to train the assemblers to be familiar with a specific model and they will only work on that model from beginning to end of the production series,

 

Like any factory assembly line the workers only work on 1 thing at a time and the "line" works until the product is finished with (sort of, there are always exceptions*), but I would be very surprised if once a worker is trained on the generic skills of making a model train that it takes days to train them to make a given model.

 

What does take time, and hence why the factories typically specify minimums per livery, is setting up the equipment for the painting and pad printing - hence why they don't like to do say 10 of a livery but rather prefer well into the hundreds if possible.

 

* - Rapido's North American new look buses are apparently worked on in a "we have some spare time" basis given how little money the factory earns making them.

 

5 minutes ago, letterspider said:

so although they are employed by the factory, they will only work on one project at a time.

This makes short run one off models proportionately more expense than continuously churning out Mk3 coaches for example.

 

While Hornby may well make more Mk3 coaches than say 75% of their other offerings, they aren't making so many that it takes a production line more than say 6 months - they are still a relatively low volume item in the greater world of manufacturing.

 

5 minutes ago, letterspider said:

I think it was also mentioned that for long production runs, as some assemblers move on, the remaining workforce are still there to share expertise to new workers who move onto to the production line and to maintain momentum.

 

I have no direct knowledge to know if this is true or not, but certainly the media reports are that Chinese workers generally change jobs when they return from Chinese New Year - I don't think you see the job hopping that we are more familiar with here in the western world.

 

5 minutes ago, letterspider said:

It would certainly could explain (for example) why we have seen an initial flood of a model in several liveries and then a long wait before we see anything (if ever) again - even though the tooling is still there.

 

Most modellers are very poor at judging demand for a new run of a model - we often think just because we want it, or because a handful of people are willing to pay crazy amounts of money on eBay that there must be a huge demand for a model and thus "the manufacturer is leaving money on the table"

 

The reality is often very different.  When faced with making a minimum of say 2,000 models (say 4 liveries of 500 each) you need to know that there are customers willing to buy those 2,000 models and not just 10 people wanting 2 each for 20 total sales...

 

Manufacturers also need to juggle not just their ability to make models (whether it be factory time or even the up front cost of ordering the models) but the general ability of the market to absorb them - there is a limit to how many $/£/€ are spent on product in a year from all the manufacturers.

 

So more often than not the long wait is simply because they don't feel they could sell the minimum numbers of models they would need to make yet.

 

Then someone like Hornby needs to juggle an extensive amount of existing tooling and can't use all of it each year and thus must decide which % of that tooling will make them the most money in a given year.

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