High Speed Diesel Train (HSDT) - The Story continues

[mikeharvey22]

The pound was 1.36 prior to the referendum (I think?). Today it's 1.29, not a massive difference really. Granted in February of 2016 it was 1.43, but that's currency and it was falling before the vote.

 

No need to guess at exchange rates. Plenty of online sources show how the pound has fallen since mid-June 2016. http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates.php?A=1&C1=GBP&C2=USD&DD1=01&MM1=06&YYYY1=2016&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=31&MM2=08&YYYY2=2018&btnOK=Go%21

[adb968008]

I doubt a class 43 prototype would come in at £175, Rapido is premium price, the model is niche, the price is more like a price for a standard new release.

Much like the single it’s a prototype with limited long term appeal... 2 liveries, one of which is undesirable, and a potential tweak to make a 21st century livery.

 

Their are 4 coaches I see in prototype, TS, TF, TRUK, TRSB. In the pictures I see online both Catering vehicles were used in the consists at the same time.

 

Given the highly bespoke nature of this, as a set i’d Not be surprised at seeing a £200 power car and £100 coach., indeed whilst the potential is there to sell 2 power cars, and several each of the TF / TS, those catering vehicles are unique and sacrificial odd balls to modellers at the best of times... I couldn’t foresee them being viable at all even at £150 each to make minimum sales numbers as people just don’t need >1 of them, and many won’t buy at all.

 

If a 252 consist was to be viable, my guess is a 43+TF+TS+43 set at around £600, with options to buy additional TS/TF at £100 each, but I suspect in all reality, best we will get (if indeed there still is a reality of this model) is a 43 power car on its own.

 

As there’s mincing around how numbers are guessed.. look at what’s going on around it..

J70 is £127, Class 156 is £230, Dynanometer is £125

[mdvle]

What catches my eyes and ears in the recent video, is the awareness of the hobby and the wider pursuit of preservation hobbies is definitely there, however I didn’t see understanding of the financial differences between North America and UK markets.

 

UK preservation survives on a shoe string with volunteers, who have a higher tax / lower disposable income than the average modeller has in North America, Sponsorships In the UK are much less, and preservation in the UK is generally is charity rather than “for profit” than the other continent. Even the restoration of their Edmunston car, in its recent video was a commercial cost.. I didn’t see anyone volunteering to help them restore it in their video ?

 

Back at hobby level, it brings bigger discounts on the high street as those following their hobby also faces higher prices, on top of tax and lower disposable income to pursue their hobby as well as the above. Selling commissions by the pallet is one thing, supporting a highly competitive retail network at higher end pricing, is something I’ve not yet seen in the hobby, but I’ve seen several North American companies lose their shirt on British investments in other industries, in belief that the UK market is more willing to adopt the kinds of pricing, volumes and profit margins they are accustomed to in North America, and at least in the case of modern traction, is limited in prototypes worthy of yet further duplication.

 

They might be Brexit ready in their business plan, but I hope they understand the financials of the British railway modeller.

 

I don't know that anyone really knows the financials of the typical modeller in either of the markets, and while I agree that the US modeller is likely still better off it is worth remembering that one of the consequences of those lower taxes in the US is a requirement to buy health insurance.  In the case of our typical modeller, who apparently over the decades always seems to hover in the 50 to 75 range, it apparently can be in the $5,000 range per person per year so your "typical" US hobbyist and wife/husband will be spending $10k on health insurance - and of course by that age you no longer tend to consider health insurance an unnecessary expense assuming you can get it.

 

While there are likely "for profit" operations much of preservation in North America is much the same as the UK - shoestring budgets done by volunteers for charitable/non-profit organizations.  The only real difference is how little of it exists in North America compared to the UK.

 

The big one in the US is Steamtown, which got "saved" by the US government taking it over - it is part of the National Park Service.  Located at Steamtown is a group attempting to restore a steam locomotive (B&M 3713) - they have been attempting for the last 23 years and 2 years ago committed to raising $750k and as of the beginning of this year that hadn't even raised half the amount.

 

Regarding the Rapido restorations, for both the RDC and Edmunston they have requested volunteer labour and donations and one of the advantages of all the equipment now being at the VIA facility is easier access for the VIA employees who have volunteered on the equipment.

[mdvle]

I doubt a class 43 prototype would come in at £175, Rapido is premium price, the model is niche, the price is more like a price for a standard new release.

Much like the single it’s a prototype with limited long term appeal... 2 liveries, one of which is undesirable, and a potential tweak to make a 21st century livery.

 

I would agree that price estimate is likely wishful thinking given the HST Prototype is as you say a niche model.

 

For those not familiar, a couple of prices to ponder.

 

2 months ago Rapido announced the Alco RS-11, a model that should be quite popular with extensive appeal across the US, including the influential California market.  The DC price is $225, or about £174.

 

7 months ago Rapido announced the NH EP-5.  This electric loco is only available in NH and Penn Central, and the only reason it is getting made is because the New Haven modellers have demonstrated their willingness to buy accurate NH models despite the necessary price premium for a niche prototype in the past (the Rapido Osgood Bradley coaches, FL9, etc.)  The price for DC is $350, or about £270.

 

It would not surprise me if the price would have to be closer to the EP-5 price than a more normal RS-11 price.

[phil-b259]

Sorry, but I simply can't accept the relative small changes in our currency are the primary reason the loco has been cancelled.

 

The point is not what sterling has done on the currency markets in the past few months - its what it might do in future!

 

While there is always the chance of something untoward happening and taking the pundits / forecasters / planners by surprise, its still the case that the best way to ensure manufacturers can go ahead with their plans is to have a stable currency is where economists can predict the future with a fair degree of confidence.

 

Since that vote in 2016 NOBODY can be sure of anything - particularly as the Government are still arguing amongst themselves as to precisely what sort of Brexit is acceptable, and therefore prudence and caution are very much to the fore with respect to any business with significant exposure to the movements of the currency markets.

 

If everything turns out fine then no doubt confidence will return - but that takes time. As such even if Rapido did restart the HSDT project, Brexit will have delayed it by a decade - which of course also also means 10 years of Chinease wages etc going up pushing up purchase costs.....

Edited September 1, 2018 by phil-b259

[adb968008]

Sorry, but I simply can't accept the relative small changes in our currency are the primary reason the loco has been cancelled.

In 2007 the £ was over $2 to £1 consistently for a prolonged period, after exponential growth against the dollar since 2003. At that time models were sub £100.

 

Roll on 2018 (indeed since 2009) the £ has been on a relatively consistent decline against the dollar, and the price is nearer £200 a loco.

 

The £ has made a significant difference to the price of our models, long before Brexit.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/4308665/Pound-falls-to-lowest-level-against-the-dollar-since-1985.html Gives examples of price rises, something to which model rails is not immune,

 

However since Brexit the £ has fallen to lows not seen since the 1980’s and perilously close to an all time record low ever in history, of course that impacts price. (As does inflation and Chinese wage increases).

 

That is worthy of business caution, especially as it’s only hope that a good deal prevails that prevents a total confidence loss.

If London lost £ trading in the EU, many American banks won’t need £ at all.. they could sell off in a matter of hours £’bns that will lead to a free fall if everyone scrambles to ditch £ demoninated debt as consequence.

It’s not likely to come to that, but being prepared is good business sense.

 

What I wait to see wait held breath, is if a good deal occurs, and the £ climbs closer to historic $1.6 averages, will model prices fall ? I doubt it, more likely as consumers are accepting price, we will see more entrants and greater production which could lead to a glut / bubble.

Edited September 1, 2018 by adb968008

[mdvle]

So this weekends Bachmann update has the following quote from Bachmann regarding the £800+ Western Pullman

 

 

Pre-orders for this premium train set have been extremely strong and we believe the fully configured independently controlled twin sound system we are demonstrating today will continue to build on this.

[adb968008]

So this weekends Bachmann update has the following quote from Bachmann regarding the £800+ Western Pullman

I have one on order, I recall I paid around £200 for my first one.

[Ouroborus]

I have one on order, I recall I paid around £200 for my first one.

 

Was that the RRP?  

[JSpencer]

What I wait to see wait held breath, is if a good deal occurs, and the £ climbs closer to historic $1.6 averages, will model prices fall ? I doubt it, more likely as consumers are accepting price, we will see more entrants and greater production which could lead to a glut / bubble.

 

I think we are seeing new entrants and Bachmann going for more smaller runs with high end details and prices. Hornby a mix of Railroad and High end with a few items that dabbled between and Oxfordrail somewhere between the high and low end (though more towards High than Low).

 

The main market (40+ years old) can still afford these high end items though have become more selective over what they buy (Had the new Pullman still been at the original £300 price, I would have brought one but at £800 it will be a white elephant on the layout, so my money goes for  2-HAPs and 4-BEPs which are expensive but actually useful for the region I'm primarily focused on.).

Below 40 years, the market used to be able to afford high end items although they were being selective. I do feel that they are now finding these high end items generally too expensive and maybe make up a smaller percentage of the market. Whether they will get wage growth and affordable housing to be able to buy high end items when they reach 40+ remains to be seen.

[adb968008]

Was that the RRP?

 

A lot less than £800, I think £295 at first announcement ?

[Sir TophamHatt]

Meanwhile over at Dapol...

 

 

https://www.Dapol.co.uk/shop/preorder/N-Gauge-Preorder

[adb968008]

Meanwhile over at Dapol...

151231_HST Prototype-2-350x350.jpg

https://www.Dapol.co.uk/shop/preorder/N-Gauge-Preorder

It’s n not OO.

[phil-b259]

It’s n not OO.

 

No, but.....

 

We have seen before how a successful N gauge release then gets produced in OO later on and with Dapol having a presence in both scales it could well happen at some stage.

[PaulCheffus]

Hi

 

However, depending on browser choice you can either see or not see the prices and add to basket button, this may die a death without having an opportunity to succeed.

 

Safari and IE11 appear to work. Chrome does not. I’ve emailed Dapol regarding this but not had a response so far.

 

Cheers

 

Paul

[woodenhead]

Hi

 

However, depending on browser choice you can either see or not see the prices and add to basket button, this may die a death without having an opportunity to succeed.

 

Safari and IE11 appear to work. Chrome does not. I’ve emailed Dapol regarding this but not had a response so far.

 

Cheers

 

Paul

My Chrome is working on my work pc, I can see the price.

[PaulCheffus]

My Chrome is working on my work pc, I can see the price.

Hi

 

Didn’t work on mine earlier but I’m at home now so can’t check. They may have fixed the issue.

 

Edit: It does indeed now work on mine and I had a reply from Dapol suggesting they may have corrected the problem.

Cheers

 

Paul

Edited September 13, 2018 by PaulCheffus

[Ouroborus]

So this weekends Bachmann update has the following quote from Bachmann regarding the £800+ Western Pullman

 

Not a surprise though surely?  They were hardly likely to say orders have been poor.  More likely whip up a bit of worry that you might not get one unless you order soon.  The proof how popular it is will be when/if it starts to drop in price.

[UP 4000]

For those who don't subscribe to Rapido's newsletters, Latest information,

 

 

 

 

 

 

We revealed our plans to manufacture the Prototype HST power cars for one of our partners at the Warley Show more years ago than I care to admit. After the success of the APT-E there was a clear momentum to push on with this project, which would include tooling to create a range of Mk.3 coaches at the same time (although we only hinted at those). The huge drop in the value of the Pound the following summer and the subsequent currency fluctuations and other instability combined with the announcement of a rival Mk.3 model caused some serious re-evaluations to take place at both our partner and at Rapido, hence the long pause.

 

While any plans that we had to make Mk.3s are now dead in the water there is still a lot of interest in the HSDT. We get a lot of enquiries about this project and we'd love to be able to give positive information. However, there's a good reason that we've been quiet on this front, we have nothing new that we can report. Rest assured if we get the go ahead to proceed then we will be broadcasting the news from the rooftops!

 

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

 

Rest assured if we get the go ahead to proceed then we will be broadcasting the news from the rooftops!

 

 Will need hefty amplification to be picked up by the true enthusiasts who are the most likely customers, due to the persisting after affects of always travelling with their head out of the window. (I recall one such earl in the HST operation disembarking at Reading who clearly had no perception of just how weird he looked with his hair 'air blasted' and considerable exhaust staining on his face, except where the goggles had been removed, for an 'anti-panda' effect..

[JSpencer]

Ironically, seeing all the complaints on the Hornby and Oxford threads, I feel Rapido could have an easy victory with the ultimate Mk3.

[phil-b259]

Ironically, seeing all the complaints on the Hornby and Oxford threads, I feel Rapido could have an easy victory with the ultimate Mk3.

 

Talk is cheap as the saying goes - if you are looking to invest £1000s in a project it requires more than gut feeling.

 

Ultimately when you actually get down to the nitty grity of it, quite a few of the most complained about things on the Oxford (and to a lesser extent the Hornby) range of Mk3s are solvable at a modest cost to the manufacturer (e.eg. livery issues).

 

If you actually consider the fundamental issues (as in stuff that would require a complete new set of tooling) the list of defects is pretty small and insufficient to realistically justify Rapido spending the money.

 

Had Oxford not entered the frey and all we had was the Hornby range (with its mixed Hornby Lima heritage and bodged tooling that lacks close coupling mechanisms, ETS jumpers etc) then the situation would be rather different.

Edited September 30, 2018 by phil-b259

[JSpencer]

Talk is cheap as the saying goes - if you are looking to invest £1000s in a project it requires more than gut feeling.

 

Ultimately when you actually get down to the nitty grity of it, quite a few of the most complained about things on the Oxford (and to a lesser extent the Hornby) range of Mk3s are solvable at a modest cost to the manufacturer (e.eg. livery issues).

 

If you actually consider the fundamental issues (as in stuff that would require a complete new set of tooling) the list of defects is pretty small and insufficient to realistically justify Rapido spending the money.

 

Had Oxford not entered the frey and all we had was the Hornby range (with its mixed Hornby Lima heritage and bodged tooling that lacks close coupling mechanisms, ETS jumpers etc) then the situation would be rather different.

The Hornby versions are so old and basic, they should have consigned to the railroad level nearly 10 years ago. Oxfords has shape issues on top of paint issues.

They are a big popular long lived class but I understand Rapido being weary of entering a duplication battle were the outcome is less certain than an open field, especially if there are other targets out there. Let's see if Oxford up their game because their first modern image item has not been the breath of fresh air many had hoped for.

[frobisher]

To my mind, there's a clear opportunity for a collaboration between Oxford and Rapido here. The prototype MK3's are primarily going to be used with any Rapido made power cars in any case.

 

Such a collaboration could give such benefits...

• Fund/Allow modifications to the existing Oxford tooling to rectify the known, curable faults (see Oxford Rail topic for list)
• Similarly allow the modifications/slides for matching the prototypes
• Addition of all the "extras" that Rapido are renowned for this run
• Decorate, finish and assemble this run in Rapido's factory at a minimum
• Profit!

Long term benefits for Oxford are improvements to the tooling for later runs, Rapido de-risk tooling up MK3's for the HSDT, we actually get them

[mdvle]

To my mind, there's a clear opportunity for a collaboration between Oxford and Rapido here. The prototype MK3's are primarily going to be used with any Rapido made power cars in any case.

 

Such a collaboration could give such benefits...

• Fund/Allow modifications to the existing Oxford tooling to rectify the known, curable faults (see Oxford Rail topic for list)

 

I would be surprised if Rapido would go into a collaboration with Oxford, there is no benefit for Rapido and significant risk.

 

The thing with Oxford is that you need to ignore their company slogan.  Oxford, based on their actions to date, have decided to aim their products at the segment of the market that is more concerned with price than accuracy / details, and there is nothing wrong with that and they have been extremely successful with their efforts.

 

Given the market they serve, and how very happy that market is with the existing Oxford Mk3 tooling, there is no reason for Oxford to spend more money fixing flaws that their customer base don't care about.