Elizabeth Line / Crossrail Updates.

[jim.snowdon]

1 hour ago, phil-b259 said:

 

TfL may set the fares, but they cannot freeze them. Please note what I said earlier about it being a legal requirement for the Mayor to ensure that his / her policies do not create a 'cliff edge' situation occurring at fare boundaries.

 

If the fare freeze applied to Paddington & West Drayton (TfL set) while Paddington to Iver fares (GWR set) increased 1% above inflation as mandated by the DfT you would have a massive difference between the two by now. As it is rail fares to West Drayton have not been frozen and thus there has not been a significant widening in the deference between fares.

 

Similarly while TfL may have frozen the fares on other transport modes, they cannot freeze the travel card price as that scheme is a joint effort between TfL plus ATOC / the RDG and the latter will veto any attempt to freeze the cost as DfT policy is fares MUST increase every year.

 

 

West Drayton has for some years now suffered from high numbers of people driving, or being driven, there from further west in order to exploit the cheaper fares, presumably of the travelcard variety. It is reflected in the train loadings as well. Down services at peak times are close to empty after West Drayton, and up services full and standing from West Drayton inwards.

 

Jim

[DY444]

20 hours ago, John Harris said:

I get a free travel card from 60, as I live in "London", which covers bus, Tube, Overground and DLR services, I can even travel at peak times on the card.

 

<pedant>

You can't at the moment before 0900.

</pedant>

[St. Simon]

Hi,

 

Not surprising, but: 

 

Quote

A programme of this scale and complexity was already challenging, the impact of COVID-19 has clearly made the existing pressures more acute. Due to a pause of physical activity on sites and significant constraints on ongoing work – time has been lost, only some of which can be recovered.  The opening of the central section between Paddington and Abbey Wood next summer, as announced earlier this year prior to COVID-19, is not achievable.

Further work is required on the detailed recovery plan which re-sequences the remaining work to complete the railway and fully assess the financial implications of COVID-19 on the programme.  A more comprehensive update will be issued in due course; work continues to refine and validate the remaining work schedule and associated costs.

 

 

https://www.crossrail.co.uk/news/articles/update-following-crossrail-board-july-2020

 

Announced on Thursday

 

Simon

Edited July 24, 2020 by St. Simon

[Ron Ron Ron]

1 hour ago, St. Simon said:

...Not surprising, but: 

 

 

Not surprising at all Simon. 

With work stopped for 3 months and now only progressing at a reduced rate, due to Coronavirus safety measures, it's easy to see why the project could be delayed by 6 months or so.

 

.

[St. Simon]

4 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

 

Not surprising at all Simon. 

With work stopped for 3 months and now only progressing at a reduced rate, due to Coronavirus safety measures, it's easy to see why the project could be delayed by 6 months or so.

You’re right, to be honest, I thought it was going to be a lot worse, I’m surprised at how quickly they’ve got going (albeit in a limited way) again.

 

Simon

[Ron Ron Ron]

A YouTube update has been posted.

All train running and train testing has been suspended to allow a "construction blockade", so that construction and fitting out work can be completed over the next few months.

Sounds like they're trying to catch up quickly.

 

All explained here....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

[billbedford]

The blockade couldn't have anything to do with the fact that there are no 11 car trains available, could it?

[St. Simon]

10 hours ago, billbedford said:

The blockade couldn't have anything to do with the fact that there are no 11 car trains available, could it?

 

No such thing as an 11-Car Class 345 yet  

 

However, the 9-Cars have been cleared to run in service for sometime, I have seen them popping up at Reading, so I doubt that it is to do with that.

 

Simon

[Grovenor]

I heard that the 9 cars were undergoing a software update and all services were running with 7 car sets until that was complete.

[adb968008]

Crossrail 2 looks set to be axed, some very well known consultancies are currently running very large lay off programmes.

 

 

[Graham108]

On 14/06/2020 at 08:15, DY444 said:

 

<pedant>

You can't at the moment before 0900.

</pedant>

<correction>

The 60+ London Oyster photocard scheme entitles Londoners to free travel on all TfL services and some national rail services 24 hours a day, seven days a week, from their sixtieth birthday. It also allows holders free travel outside of morning peak hours on other national rail services in the capital.

</correction>

[Chris116]

9 minutes ago, bartram108 said:

<correction>

The 60+ London Oyster photocard scheme entitles Londoners to free travel on all TfL services and some national rail services 24 hours a day, seven days a week, from their sixtieth birthday. It also allows holders free travel outside of morning peak hours on other national rail services in the capital.

</correction>

The term now state:-

"Free travel on bus, Tube, tram, DLR, London Overground, TfL Rail (excluding between West Drayton and Reading) and most National Rail services in London

We've changed the hours you can travel to reduce crowding on our services and help social distancing. You will only be able to travel from 09:00, Monday to Friday. You can still travel any time on weekends and public holidays. "

The above quote is copied from the tfl website. 

[Ron Ron Ron]

New western entrance to Paddington station, from Eastbourne Terrace......

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

[Ron Ron Ron]

Hayes & Harlington Station.

 

 

 

West Ealing Station.

 

  

 

 

Acton Main Line.

 

  

 

 

 

.

[phil-b259]

On 29/07/2020 at 23:20, adb968008 said:

Crossrail 2 looks set to be axed, some very well known consultancies are currently running very large lay off programmes.

 

 

 

You can't axe something that hasn't started!

 

While TFL have indeed done quite a lot of background work on CR2, they are nowhere near being ready to start applying for a TWA to construct the scheme.

 

At one time there was a certain amount of wishful thinking at TFL that what with Euston allegedly not going to being able to cope with all the extra passengers deposited there by HS2, Crossrail being on time (and on budget), plus that scheme having trained up a large number of tunnelling specialists, then had a good chance of getting Government support to begin CR2 fairly quickly after CR1 was finished.

 

Since then we have had:-

• Crossrail going massively beyond budget plus running a good few years late
• Covid-19 wreaking the economy, meaning getting any central Government funding will be hard to get
• TfL struggling financially - and that was BEFORE the Covid-19 pandemic took hold
• The 2019 General election seeing a mass switch in large parts of the North of England to the Tories - who will expect to be rewarded and not have all the Governments cash spent on 'rich Londoners'

Therefore as with many other transport projects (remember Crossrail itself has been around as an idea since the late 1940 with an awful lot of false starts), CR2 will be quietly put on hold. Any work done so far will not be trashed, it will be archived for future use when the political and economic situation makes it possible to restart the project. I expect the same fate will happen to the Bakerloo line extension TfL have ben consulting on over the past few years as well..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[adb968008]

1 hour ago, phil-b259 said:

 

You can't axe something that hasn't started!

 

While TFL have indeed done quite a lot of background work on CR2, they are nowhere near being ready to start applying for a TWA to construct the scheme.

 

At one time there was a certain amount of wishful thinking at TFL that what with Euston allegedly not going to being able to cope with all the extra passengers deposited there by HS2, Crossrail being on time (and on budget), plus that scheme having trained up a large number of tunnelling specialists, then had a good chance of getting Government support to begin CR2 fairly quickly after CR1 was finished.

 

Since then we have had:-

• Crossrail going massively beyond budget plus running a good few years late
• Covid-19 wreaking the economy, meaning getting any central Government funding will be hard to get
• TfL struggling financially - and that was BEFORE the Covid-19 pandemic took hold
• The 2019 General election seeing a mass switch in large parts of the North of England to the Tories - who will expect to be rewarded and not have all the Governments cash spent on 'rich Londoners'

Therefore as with many other transport projects (remember Crossrail itself has been around as an idea since the late 1940 with an awful lot of false starts), CR2 will be quietly put on hold. Any work done so far will not be trashed, it will be archived for future use when the political and economic situation makes it possible to restart the project. I expect the same fate will happen to the Bakerloo line extension TfL have ben consulting on over the past few years as well..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Still feel for all those losing their jobs... just because there isn't spades in the soil, doesnt mean it hasn't started... consultancies are shedding staff.

 

Millions has been sunk in to Crossrail 2.. even if it hasn't “started” lots has been spent.

 

What future has Tfl got with revenues through the floor, possibly an entire cultural shift when it comes to travel, working from home is saving some people a fortune, encouraging better health and lifestyle.. I cant imagine London commuting returning to pre-covid levels, and any price rises will further encourage many away.

Edited July 31, 2020 by adb968008

[phil-b259]

58 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Still feel for all those losing their jobs... just because there isn't spades in the soil, doesnt mean it hasn't started... consultancies are shedding staff.

 

Millions has been sunk in to Crossrail 2.. even if it hasn't “started” lots has been spent.

 

What future has Tfl got with revenues through the floor, possibly an entire cultural shift when it comes to travel, working from home is saving some people a fortune, encouraging better health and lifestyle.. I cant imagine London commuting returning to pre-covid levels, and any price rises will further encourage many away.

 

Thats the nature of being a / working for consultant(s), you gamble that the person hiring the consultancy firm decides to continue the project once each milestone has been reached. Lots of consultants were laid off in the 1992 recession as Government spending was cut - and again in 1997 when the incoming labour administration cancelled virtually every road scheme being worked on (including some that were to use the current phrase 'shovel ready' and thus already had lots of money spent on them by that stage).

 

Millions was also sunk into Crossrail in the late 80s / early 90s, its on the factual record that BR + LUL had a prepared an extensive scheme and were basically waiting on ministerial approval - which didn't happen because of Privatisation. What you need to remember however is much of the material produced at that time became very useful for the next (and ultimately successful) attempt.

 

Its also worth remembering that CR2 is in fact simply a re-imagining of the 1990s Chelsea - Hackney tube scheme which got as far as having a safeguarded route through London and had held quite a few consultations on station options in Chelsea, etc. before it got cancelled and everyone sent home!

 

As for what MAY happen in future as regards commuting in the post Covid world its far too early to say. Its extremely premature to assume that it will kill off large scale commuting - as many specialists are now realising working from home is causing and enormous build up of mental problems with people not having physical social contact, not to mention physical health issues bought on by bad posture thanks to using domestic furniture in place of ergonomically designed office fittings while working. See

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52560499

https://www.bizjournals.com/bizwomen/news/latest-news/2020/06/missing-office-small-talk-researchers-say-it-impa.html?page=all

https://www.northern-times.co.uk/news/lockdown-homeworkers-miss-the-company-of-colleagues-according-to-new-survey-203514/

https://workplaceinsight.net/people-miss-the-office-but-most-do-not-want-to-return-full-time/

https://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/18525829.workers-missed-company-colleagues-home/

 

Thus it remains entirely possible that in a decade or so there will be a need to dust off all the CR2 work done to date and restart the project. The fact that there will be so much archived material will only help, not hinder a future scheme.

 

 

Edited July 31, 2020 by phil-b259

[adb968008]

Fascinating but it doesn't change the status quo...

 

The media seems to also think something that hasn't started is about to stop.

 

https://www.constructionnews.co.uk/agenda/opinion/cn-briefing/crossrail-is-killing-crossrail-2-28-07-2020/

 

https://www.cityam.com/tfl-says-work-on-crossrail-2-may-have-to-pause-without-new-funding-deal/

https://www.constructionnews.co.uk/civils/transport-for-london-reveals-projects-in-jeopardy-27-07-2020/
 

exactly how profitable are Britains railways ?

 

how many people without work from October, together with those who discover an extra 2 hours in bed, eating healthy, getting exercise and still delivering 8 hours whilst saving £2-4k per year and 2-4 hours a day on a sweaty cramped train does it take to flip any of the franchises into the red ?

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53580656
 

(I will add, I am one of those, my business expenses each week on travel were 4 figures prior to covid, my personal costs have dropped through the floor and my savings are right up, and i’m not just hitting, but exceeding my targets using Zoom, Meet, Hangouts, Chime, Teams, Webex, Skype)... my business expenses for the last 3 months have been zero, so today I was in a pool with my daughter enjoying 36 degrees.. Covid has changed my work habit for the better, but its been at Hotels, Taxis, Restaurants, Rail & Airlines cost... all those I speak to on the above, tend to agree when it comes to travel, no one wants to go back..

Our company pays a huge five figure rent each week in London.. it seems renewing that lease isn't a high priority either, they released a new “hub/spoke” team working model this morning.. basically it means work from home, plan to meet once a 1/4 and pre-book a room for a day if you want to come in... were nearly 500 in our place.. everyones canceled their travelcard months back.

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/train-season-ticket-flexible-cheaper

 

Many who previously took the train, may be thinking about cars instead for safety, i’m sure bicycles might factor, but maybe only only shorter journeys.

 

its fallacy to think rail travel will bounce back, there will be some return, but will it be enough, it might not be that much more than it currently is now, making it the new norm.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/travel/travel-news/will-this-move-mean-britains-railways-have-been-nationalised/31/07/
Crossrail might end up British Rail.

 

Edited July 31, 2020 by adb968008

[TravisM]

I remember watching a tv programme with Michael Portillo regarding CrossRail as he was either the minister responsible for it or connected to it.  He said that they had a choice, CrossRail or the Jubilee Line Extension as they didn’t have the money for both.  As we all know that the JLE went ahead as it was possibly cheaper and served Docklands better.  As most of the financial corporations we’re moving there, it was possibly the better choice at the time.

[phil-b259]

11 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Fascinating but it doesn't change the status quo...

 

The media seems to also think something that hasn't started is about to stop.

 

https://www.constructionnews.co.uk/agenda/opinion/cn-briefing/crossrail-is-killing-crossrail-2-28-07-2020/

 

https://www.cityam.com/tfl-says-work-on-crossrail-2-may-have-to-pause-without-new-funding-deal/

https://www.constructionnews.co.uk/civils/transport-for-london-reveals-projects-in-jeopardy-27-07-2020/
 

exactly how profitable are Britains railways ?

 

how many people without work from October, together with those who discover an extra 2 hours in bed, eating healthy, getting exercise and still delivering 8 hours whilst saving £2-4k per year and 2-4 hours a day on a sweaty cramped train does it take to flip any of the franchises into the red ?

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53580656
 

(I will add, I am one of those, my business expenses each week on travel were 4 figures prior to covid, my personal costs have dropped through the floor and my savings are right up, and i’m not just hitting, but exceeding my targets using Zoom, Meet, Hangouts, Chime, Teams, Webex, Skype)... my business expenses for the last 3 months have been zero, so today I was in a pool with my daughter enjoying 36 degrees.. Covid has changed my work habit for the better, but its been at Hotels, Taxis, Restaurants, Rail & Airlines cost... all those I speak to on the above, tend to agree when it comes to travel, no one wants to go back..

Our company pays a huge five figure rent each week in London.. it seems renewing that lease isn't a high priority either, they released a new “hub/spoke” team working model this morning.. basically it means work from home, plan to meet once a 1/4 and pre-book a room for a day if you want to come in... were nearly 500 in our place.. everyones canceled their travelcard months back.

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/train-season-ticket-flexible-cheaper

 

Many who previously took the train, may be thinking about cars instead for safety, i’m sure bicycles might factor, but maybe only only shorter journeys.

 

its fallacy to think rail travel will bounce back, there will be some return, but will it be enough, it might not be that much more than it currently is now, making it the new norm.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/travel/travel-news/will-this-move-mean-britains-railways-have-been-nationalised/31/07/
Crossrail might end up British Rail.

 

 

Firstly two of those links you shared belong to speciality construction industry media - and its no surprise they are creating a fuss as no CR2 means a potential loss of business. Its no different to farming media putting up articles about how allowing American food imports as part of a UK-US trade deal will cause UK farmers severe harm. The other link is a news site focusing on things that matter to those living in the heart of big cities - their redership will no doubt have a vested interest in more rail transport. Finally TfL are broke and desperate for HM Government money - feeding media the line that CR2 will have to be axed is all part of the lobbying efforts to try and get Westminster to keep the project alive.

 

Secondly, one of the things which was causing problems with the likes of the SWR franchise BEFORE Covid-19 was less people were buying traditional season tickets and thus upsetting all the revenue calculations the franchise had been let on. However this wasn't accompanied by a noticeable reduction in travellers - in fact numbers remained stable or even continued to increase because those ceasing the regular 5 day commute were replaced by the same (or grater) numbers of infrequent travellers. Ask yourself this if you are so certain that commuting is over and trains will be empty why hasn't the UK Government pulled the plug on HS2? Surely in your future there will be no need for commuter trains on the WCML freeing paths up for other services in you are correct?

 

No the reality is that that in the medium to long term, high volume commuting in some form will return - all Covid-19 will do is accelerate the trend of it being less 'predictable' (i.e. sales of yearly, monthly, weekly season tickets will continue to decline but sales of other tickets will rise) and eventually CR2 may still be required.

 

Thirdly - I have never used the term 'bounce back', because its obvious that (1) Restrictions will still be with us for some time yet (as evidenced by the statement from Boris yesterday) and  (2) Businesses will no doubt be using the lockdown experience to re-evaluate their working practices and the consequent changes will have effects in many ways - many completely unrelated to commuting I hasten to add. If they include more working from home then that has implications for the property market  - houses with gardens or spare rooms that can be equipped as home offices will be preferred over flats. Given space constraints in cities that pushes more people out of London and can create more occasional commuting for example. All this will take time to work its way through the way we live our lives / the economy is structured / etc which means predicting short term trends as regards transport is pretty difficult. Medium and long term things become a bit easier because of the way globalisation / world economic policy / lifestyle policy is actually all structured to expand the demand for travel in general.

 

Finally I note that you personally (as well as most of your colleagues) may well be enjoying working from home. That all well and good but you should consider the needs of those who are not as fortunate as yourself. Its worth remembering however a vast numbers of those currently working from home (particularly the young) do not have access to a garden (let alone a pool to cool off in). While some may be fine with this there are many others where 'working from home' means stuck in the bedroom of a shared flat without proper furniture (thus increasing the risk of poor posture + backpain) and THEY are just as important as people like yourself when it comes to considering the future of work.

Edited August 1, 2020 by phil-b259

[adb968008]

Thanks, and I did allow that for it in my post.

 

However everyone lobbies for everything when it comes to government, thats how its been for centuries, your not bringing anything new to the debate, and at the same time,  If my news media are biased to construction, how are yours not biased when quoting “workplace insight” as a source ? Pull the other one.

 

Thing is, in the real world, the potential for sustained reduction is greater reality than a return to pre-Covid growth,.rather than quoting construction or facilities management industries.. why dont you look at economists view points instead

 

NatWest more than doubles loan loss provisions on gloomy UK outlook
https://www.ft.com/content/f5729585-0c49-4f90-a2b4-91397a345aca

 

Lloyds sets aside another £2.4bn to cover potential bad loans
https://www.ft.com/content/a6c44d6f-28f0-47e2-bfca-b880f28fbfd5

 

UK GDP fell by 19.1% in the three months to May 2020

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/may2020

 

whatever you think of CNN, US money shapes the world, and they are reading this on Wall Street.. hardly confident to invest in the UK is it?

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/10/business/uk-emerging-market/index.html

OECD: the OECD warned that the U.K. was likely to be the hardest-hit developed economy as it predicted U.K. GDP to decline 11.5% in 2020, slightly worse than Italy and France’s forecasted slump, and potentially even more (by 14%) if there was a second wave of infections.

 

Standard and Poors: S&P Global cut its forecast for U.K. GDP in 2020 to an 8.1% contraction, warning of a “perfect storm”

 

wake up and smell the coffee, good times are not just around the corner coming soon.

 

Crossrail might be enjoying a boom of extra funds in the big fat protected pork barrel it is, to get it over the line, but once the gravy train has been delivered, I doubt the promised land of construction finance is awaiting for Crossrail 2 and many other as yet unfunded pre-Covid aspirations. What we will probably see is a few targetted lower costs projects, with a political northern skew to them.

 

I dont think as many Londoners and the South East commuters as you think will be rushing back soon, even less if schools dont open in September. its a lot cheaper to buy a new chair for a home office, than an annual travel card.
Around my area, property just jumped £100k this year, (i’m not celebrating btw.. its made it harder for us to move to a better place as thats gone up even more, but I believe a crash driven by high interest rates will follow), as people living In flats are seeking to get out of the city for larger pastures... Of course reduced demand for travel in the South, supports the invest in the North political agenda too.
I expect central London flat & commercial prices to decline, and suburb prices to rise, especially in retail & hospitality as theres a shortage now in the suburbs, which is good for the local high street too... still no political downside.

And of course there's health and lifestyle benefits vs crowded trains.. again political upside to encourage home working.

BA has already recognised that in immediate dumping of 23x450 seater 747s, that theres going to be upwards of 70k less weekly bus,taxi,train,car journeys to LHR each week with just 1 airline. Ive well over a million airmiles behind me, but when half the web conference apps are free, I can see now post covid, getting a £2-3k a week trip signed off isnt going to be as easy as it was, Indeed even a few hundred trip up north for 1 customer makes less sense post covid when I can E-meet 3-4 in the same day on the web.

 

You mention HS2, we've yet to see where this ends up, but past UK performance suggests part 1 will happen, part 2 will become political and fade away... covid, brexit wont make any difference to usual government behaviour... that said I dont think HS2 was ever seriously about commuting, the costs of that travelcard are never going to fly, people dont commute for fun, people will always choose to live closer to work, right now many have found it easy to work in their lounge in their pj’s, you dont need HS2 for that. Recognising that not everyone has that choice, many do..

If the UK is to shrink to an emerging market and a 20% decline in 2020 becomes entrenched at whatever % it ends up at, the cuts will be somewhere.. to me Hospitality and Travel look exposed.

 

So remove a % of commuters, a % of business travellers, the two industry cash cows...leads me to the point i’m making which is how many does it need to push already precarious franchises, construction projections etc into the big red from marginal black, closely followed by the Treasury and another economic Dr of engineering to trim fat and heal the bleeding.

 

 

Edited August 1, 2020 by adb968008

[corneliuslundie]

I am sorry adb but those I know who are working from home are finding it a struggle. It is not just a matter of a decent chair, It is space. Few family homes have a room which can be turned into an office. My son is working on the dressing table in his bedroom because there is no-where else in the house suitable - and that is not really suitable either. And there are parts of his work which cannot be done from home anyway. Many people are in that situation. Others have young children at home which make it hard to concentrate on a work task. And by no means all commuters work in offices anyway. Even apart from those in other employment there are large numbers of students. Please do not assume that everyone else's job is like yours. In addition, there is a big difference between a Zoom meeting (and I take part in three or four - not work - a week) and face to face contact for effectiveness of communication. Others have also mentioned increased utility bills and a fear that local authorities will try to charge business rates on home offices, so it is not all saving.

In other words, it is simply not simple to predict what will happen.

I also do not accept your statement that people will always choose to live closer to work. The history of our cities demonstrates just the opposite.

However, all this has been discussed to death on the HS2 thread, so perhaps it is time to move on.

Jonathan

[adb968008]

Your continuing to miss the point...

 

I never said it is for everyone...

 

Quote

So remove a % of commuters, a % of business travellers, the two industry cash cows...leads me to the point i’m making which is how many does it need to push already precarious franchises, construction projections etc into the big red from marginal black

 

 

Edited August 1, 2020 by adb968008

[caradoc]

13 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Our company pays a huge five figure rent each week in London.. it seems renewing that lease isn't a high priority either, they released a new “hub/spoke” team working model this morning.. basically it means work from home

 

My son is currently working from (my) home; No doubt his employer also spends a lot of money on premises (although as they are in Glasgow, probably not as much as in London !). So, what have they paid, or even offered to pay, for the premises that I am providing, not to mention furniture, heating, lighting etc, plus the inconvenience to the whole family of the effective loss of the whole upper floor of our home when my son is working ? Precisely nothing ! No doubt they believe he (and I) should be grateful that he still has a job at all, but this situation cannot, and will not, continue forever, and the sooner he gets back to work in, and therefore commuting to, Glasgow, the better.

 

I do agree that there may well be a permanent increase in home working, and therefore a reduction in commuting, long term, but in some ways this might actually benefit the railway, by requiring less infrastucture and fewer trains to serve peak traffic flows which only occur for a few hours five days a week; Every time I travel past Grove Park, or Clapham Jc, for example, I am astounded by the number of expensive trains sitting idle between the peaks.

 

Anyway, back on topic, and after yet another hopeless journey by Underground from Liverpool St to Paddington yesterday  (is it really utterly beyond the wit of TfL to tell people which will be the next train from Edgware Road towards High St Ken ?), roll on Crossrail !

 

 

[phil-b259]

6 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Your continuing to miss the point...

 

I never said it is for everyone...

 

 

 

 

No I don't - what I take issue with is the tone that suggests that projects like CR2 will now never happen. Quite clearly the 'need' for CR2 now compared to this time last year has evaporated and won't re-materialise within the next couple of years or so.

 

Naturally short term the dramatic changes bought on by the Covid Pandemic will cause many projects to cease to be viable in the short term, and yes, that will unfortunately impact those working on them (just as hundreds of hospitality workers have seen their jobs disappear overnight).

 

The medium to long term is far less easy to predict - and much hinges on whether Covid-19 can be contained by a vaccine or whether the pain will have to go on for several years while humans develop some kind of herd impunity to it. When considering things like CR2 its not a question of what will happen between now and 2025 say - its what will be the situation in 230 or 2040. Thats why the Government remains committed in principle of a network of HS lines - not just HS2 between London and Birmingham because the demand for travel is predicted to return. Similarly while CR2 may now be unaffordable / unjustifiable that doesn't automatically mean it won't be in a decade or twos time.

 

There are indeed big questions over railway finances, particularly in the short term - but its rumoured that the current emergency support to TOCs will be extended for another 18 months while it could be said that Covid-19 is helpful in allowing the Government to implement different structure / the recommendation of the Williams review earlier than would otherwise be the case were the franchise* system still going.

 

Ultimately as with virtually everything affected by the Pandemic, its simply a matter of waiting to see how things play out. The quickness with which the pandemic has turned ordinary life upside down means we should be wary of using it as a guide to the long term future - we need more data (i.e. time) to make any form of judgement on the long term outlook.

 

 

* Franchises have been suspended since March with ALL franchised train services being run on management contracts (all bills including rolling stock hire plus what little fare revenue there is goes to HM Government while operators get a fixed lump sum)