Castle Aching

[Northroader]

The amount I’ve been doing, I’d be sadly failing in any official duties, it’s more ad hoc these days.

[phil_sutters]

37 minutes ago, Northroader said:

The amount I’ve been doing, I’d be sadly failing in any official duties, it’s more ad hoc these days.

A pint of German white!

[Edwardian]

32 minutes ago, phil_sutters said:

A pint of German white!

 

Be careful, there is now a 'groan' button.

[Nearholmer]

1 hour ago, Edwardian said:

It seems we are in danger of being caught between the Devil of latter-day prohibitionists and the Deep Blue Sea of the libertarian politicians defending our right to get infected with Covid.

Our one visit to the pub (restaurant nowadays really) a few hundred yards from home allowed a taste of both alcohol and Covid-peril.

 

The Covid-precaution measures that the establishment crows about seemed to consist of two squirty bottles of hand sanitiser. The table arrangement was exactly as ever, which means about 1.5m between punters eating at adjacent tables, and the waitresses went about their business cheerfully unencumbered by masks, rubbing up against customers (at one point I was sandwiched between two waitresses bottoms in contact with my shoulders, which might not be entirely terrible in normal times, but did seem a minor failing of social distancing). It was a bleedin’ farce, and we had to really insist very hard to be allowed a table outside, because it was further for them to carry, and the place was full, so they were really busy.

If that fairly upmarket place with a “family special occasion” clientele crossing generations hasn’t acted as a point of transmission it will be a miracle, so lord alone knows how things are at busy grog shops frequented by unconcerned youngsters.

[Northroader]

“Minor failing of social distancing” he says, I’ll put that in my dictionary alongside “limited and specific”

[Hroth]

22 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

at one point I was sandwiched between two waitresses bottoms in contact with my shoulders

 

So you were entirely satisfied by the standards of service? 

 

 

 

[brack]

Baroness Finlay is somewhat more qualified than many to speak on public health measures though. Going out anywhere has infinitely improved now smoking has gone from public places, and millions will live healthier, longer lives with less pain because of that change.

Considering the financial, medical and societal costs of alcohol and drunkenness it's not hard to see why it's consumption should be reduced or discouraged. Many of those costs/consequences could be reduced if people could drink in moderation, but clearly there are large numbers who apparently can't or won't.

Things have improved a lot in the last decade or so (a combination of drink driving being no longer acceptable and a rise in the profile of healthier lifestyles), but there is still a pervading culture in the uk that it somehow isn't possible to socialise or enjoy yourself without drinking.

 

Besides, right now we need all the alcohol in the world to make hand sanitiser!

 

[Edwardian]

39 minutes ago, brack said:

Baroness Finlay is somewhat more qualified than many to speak on public health measures though. Going out anywhere has infinitely improved now smoking has gone from public places, and millions will live healthier, longer lives with less pain because of that change.

Considering the financial, medical and societal costs of alcohol and drunkenness it's not hard to see why it's consumption should be reduced or discouraged. Many of those costs/consequences could be reduced if people could drink in moderation, but clearly there are large numbers who apparently can't or won't.

Things have improved a lot in the last decade or so (a combination of drink driving being no longer acceptable and a rise in the profile of healthier lifestyles), but there is still a pervading culture in the uk that it somehow isn't possible to socialise or enjoy yourself without drinking.

 

Besides, right now we need all the alcohol in the world to make hand sanitiser!

 

 

I'm afraid I only got about half-way through that before I thought "I could read RMWeb posts, or, I could go pour myself a gin"

 

A drink is the only consolation some of us have left. Whatever she may think, Baroness Finlay is not my Nanny. Sometimes do-gooders really get on my t1ts.

 

2 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

... the waitresses went about their business cheerfully ... rubbing up against customers

 

 

 PM me the address would you?

[Andy Hayter]

2 hours ago, brack said:

but there is still a pervading culture in the uk that it somehow isn't possible to socialise or enjoy yourself without drinking.

 

 

 

It is not just in the UK but somehow the problem seems an awful lot more in the UK from what I read and see on the TV (not always the most reliable source of real facts).  A French meal without alcohol is called................................

breakfast.

 

When I visited our production unit in Bavaria for the first time, I was surprised to see an automat serving bottles of beer (and proper Bavarian beer at 4.5-5.5% alcohol).  I was told that it was a Bavarian breakfast!  That all changed when the Americans took over and I guess today the Bavarians are starving.

 

And yes we (France) do also seem to have our fair share of alcoholics but the gap between normal/social drinkers and alcoholics seems much emptier here.  At least we seem to suffer less from the weekend blow out. 

 

Don't misunderstand me, alcoholism is a terrible disease and causes much distress to family and friends.  Overreaction will however just lead to what happened in the US during prohibition.

[Malcolm 0-6-0]

10 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

rubbing up against customers (at one point I was sandwiched between two waitresses bottoms in contact with my shoulders, which might not be entirely terrible in normal times, but did seem a minor failing of social distancing).

 

Is it spread by bottom to shoulder contact - my goodness that's going to add a complication to mask wearing .............. 

[Nearholmer]

Just a thong at twilight,

When the lights are low,

And the evening shadows

Softly come and go.

 

Anyway, can I just check a calculation on the members of the PC, prompted by the fact that schools  all over the place are already part-closing due to the plague?

 

If a pupil tests positive for the bug, the school closes totally for several days to permit deep-cleaning, then reopens for all except the year-group of the child concerned, all of whom must isolate for a fortnight.

 

Now, current average UK incidence of the bug is 18 cases per 100 000 population per week (figure varies quite widely, and in the most affected areas is c50). So, assuming incidence to be spread evenly across the population (it isn't*), then in a typical large secondary school of 1500 pupils, a pupil will test positive on average about once a month, precipitating the above, and given seven school years, any child can expect to be required to isolate on average about once in about six months.

 

There are about 3500 secondary schools in the UK, not all as large as I've assumed, but some larger, so very roughly a fifth to a quarter will experience a new year-group closure in any given week (say 700 each week), and between a third and a half will have a year-group closed at any given time (two week isolation).

 

Adding staff precautionary isolations and positive tests into the mix simply increases the amount of "down time" in the system, and even small delays in the testing process will worsen things greatly, because staff precautionary isolations will be longer, and the chance of transmission before detection and shutdown will be greater.

 

Is my maths and thinking correct?

 

What is beginning to dawn on me is that the "summer of relative liberty" has put effective education at more peril than might first appear.

 

*children <16yo have, up to now, not suffered such a steep rise in incidence as older teenagers, young adults, and working-age adults, but the only age group with no increase in incidence in recent weeks is 65+, who must be being really, really careful.

[Compound2632]

I suspect your calculation is an over-estimate since there's a good probability that in an area with a high rate of transmission, there will be several Covid-positive children simultaneously within the same school, indeed the same year group. That's not good news though. There is, I think, good evidence that high R is correlated with social deprivation, so the effect will be to continue to widen the attainment gap. 

[TheQ]

Yes your sums don't cover the variability of corona virus infections, where I live there was 1 case last week, giving a number per hundred thousand of 0.7

[sem34090]

I'll just leave this here... Dangerously close to topic, and not at all relevant to the above discussion, it may be found on the rear of the August 1912 edition of The Railway Magazine.

[Hroth]

I just don't trust the figures anymore.

 

I've been keeping track of published figures since just before lockdown in March, both for where I live and overall nationally. Over the ensuing 6 months, reporting methodologies have changed, with differing goalposts being set and categories vanished or been subsumed into other counts.

 

The figures are a mess, and we're left with lies, damn lies and statistics derived from them.

 

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

the only age group with no increase in incidence in recent weeks is 65+, who must be being really, really careful.

 

I'm not yet in that age group, but I've not been out for a week, however I'm going to have to get some food in soon, so it'll be facemasks and gloves once more...

 

5 minutes ago, sem34090 said:

I'll just leave this here... Dangerously close to topic, and not at all relevant to the above discussion, it may be found on the rear of the August 1912 edition of The Railway Magazine.

 

So we're NOT talking about Great Yarmouth then?

 

 

[Nearholmer]

45 minutes ago, Compound2632 said:

there's a good probability that in an area with a high rate of transmission, there will be several Covid-positive children simultaneously

 

It probably does err slightly on the pessimistic side for several reasons, that among them, and if there is a "super localised" outbreak in the catchment area of one school simultaneous occurences would be quite likely, but the pattern does not seem to be of very localised outbreaks any more ...... the beast broke out again.

 

You're almost certainly right about there being a disproportionately bad affect in deprived areas.

 

20 minutes ago, TheQ said:

Yes your sums don't cover the variability of corona virus infections

 

Indeed not, because its based on national average figures, and one would expect the low probability of a closure in North Norfolk to be balanced by the high probability of closures in badly affected areas.

 

But, I think the broad picture of education being quite badly disrupted in coming months is right.

 

 

 

 

Edited September 15, 2020 by Nearholmer

[St Enodoc]

7 minutes ago, Hroth said:

So we're NOT talking about Great Yarmouth then?

One out of two?

[Andy Hayter]

Your assumption that the whole school will close for deep cleaning, may depend on the school.  Some seem to be operating with bubbles segregated into sections of the buildings, so in theory the whole school would not need to close, just the area where the infected bubble resides.  

 

Other schools however may well be in exactly the situation you describe.  

[Edwardian]

Now that it is becoming clear that tough enforcement of the Rule of Six by the police, supported by 'Covid Marshalls' and 'citizen informers', is to be a fact of life, have we really thought through its cultural implications?

 

I mean, will any further remake of the classic Western be The Magnificent Six, or, for the original version, The Six Samurai?  of course The Last Samurai is OK, but must we now have Four-to-Seven Ronin?    

 

The Fellowship of the Ring is three over the limit, and it's hard to think that the Breaking of the Fellowship might have been the result of police action. 

 

A fascinating question is, which of the Deadly Sins is now to be permitted? I'm pretty sure Boris will plump for Lust. Will the Kent town have to be Sixoaks?

 

As ever, however, I'm most concerned by the effect on the kids ...

 

 

 

Edited September 15, 2020 by Edwardian

[Compound2632]

The Secret Seven are in hiding in Scotland, I suppose, where they would not constitute an illegal gathering.

 

In my paranoia I had begun to suspect this was being used as cover for the reintroduction of the Combination Acts and to prevent seditious gatherings but I note that socially-distance public protest gatherings are exempt.

[Northroader]

 Andy’s idea is correct, most schools are dividing up into bubbles, generally by year, which will minimise the impact of how many will be sent home with the lurgy. There’s one year gone missing for the next fortnight from our local comp.

Sem’s poster is pushing a trip for “health and leisure”, somehow my mind turned to a trip to enjoy “health and efficiency”, and I see it’s still being published.

[Edwardian]

Mind you, I bet the Famous Five are feeling bl00dy smug at the moment.

[Compound2632]

2 minutes ago, Edwardian said:

Mind you, I bet the Famous Five are feeling bl00dy smug at the moment.

 

Wasn't that their natural state?

[Edwardian]

2 minutes ago, Compound2632 said:

 

Wasn't that their natural state?

 

A somewhat self-congratulatory title, for sure.

 

Interesting mention of the etymology of "mingle" on R4 this lunchtime, now that "mingling" is specifically proscribed. 

 

Apparently the original sense is mix, with people "kneading" together. Doesn't sound very Covid-secure. 

 

I always get a sense of people kneading together at an exhibition when that guy with a rucksack turns round suddenly, knocking me into the inevitable grumpy old man with sharpened elbows.

 

Those were the days ...

[Clearwater]

26 minutes ago, Edwardian said:

Mind you, I bet the Famous Five are feeling bl00dy smug at the moment.

 

23 minutes ago, Compound2632 said:

 

Wasn't that their natural state?

 

The Blyton Five or Wharton, Nugent, Cherry, Ram SIngh and Johnny Bull at Greyfriars?  Description could apply to either...