Castle Aching

[St Enodoc]

1 minute ago, jcredfer said:

 

It used to be a couple of Mackesons Stout and many an elderly taker, too.

 

Julian

 

That was my Great-aunt Harriet's tipple. She lived to about 88.

[jcredfer]

17 minutes ago, St Enodoc said:

That was my Great-aunt Harriet's tipple. She lived to about 88.

 

Lots of older folk liked it because it was quite sweet, due to the Lactose in the ingredients - amazing number of calories, too.

 

Julian

[Nearholmer]

I just read this snippet on the BBC news site:

 

School leaders estimate that around 740 schools in England have sent home some pupils, whether it's a bubble, a year group or multiple year groups, said Steve Chalke, the founder of the Oasis trust. Eight out of his trust's 52 schools have been affected.

 

Presumably that is all schools, not just secondary, but given that we’ve only got as far as Wednesday, it does suggest that my calculation yesterday was in the right area.

 

I promise not to bang-on about this any more.
 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 16, 2020 by Nearholmer

[uax6]

The present Mrs Uax's school has sent 2 pupils home this week, and they have a total population of 130ish children. One was in her class......

 

I fear you are bang on, and how are parents supposed to be in work, when their children could be sent home for a fortnight at a moments notice?

 

I also like the fact that there are so few testing centres, here in CA land, we would have to travel to Peterborough or Ipswich, hardly a journey you want to do when you're feeling a bit pony and trap.

 

Andy G

 

(I think you should carry on banging on about it, you seem to show far more logic than the gov... My question is how the rates of Covid-itus compares with the rates of say flu or the common cold..)

[Compound2632]

25 minutes ago, uax6 said:

I fear you are bang on, and how are parents supposed to be in work, when their children could be sent home for a fortnight at a moments notice?

 

Our education system has never got to grips with the societal changes of the last 30 years or more - it's still predicated on the assumption that Mum's at home. 

[Nearholmer]

4 hours ago, uax6 said:

My question is how the rates of Covid-itus compares with the rates of say flu or the common cold..

 

I'll see if I can find out, but my guess is that current national average Covid incidence is lower than peak winter flu and flu-like-thing incidence.

 

But, the big difference in this context is that schools don't need to put an entire year group out to isolate for a fortnight if one pupil gets flu ..... de-facto it is allowed to spread and might take a third of the pupils out of class at a time, but is nowhere near as disruptive as the necessary precautions with this one.

 

EDIT: it was actually quite quick to find out. Last winter the incidence of consultations with a GP for flu-like symptoms was about the same as the current incidence of positive tests for coronavirus, in the mid teens per 100 000 population per week. Last winter wasn't a bad 'un for flu, so presumably its a lot more than that in a bad year.

Edited September 16, 2020 by Nearholmer

[uax6]

But is this not the real issue?

 

When Coviditus was new we weren't at all ready for it (manly through the years of under-funding the health service), but presumably we have learnt about how to treat it, and are much better prepared for it now. The spread through the population is normal, and we need to come to terms that people die of illness everyday, and if its not Coviditus it could be flu or cancer or by being hit by a train.

 

If we can get over our Britishness and accept that we all die of something at sometime, this thing will not actually be as scary as it is being made out to be..

 

I'm middle aged now, and if the grim reaper knocks I'll accept that its my time to go whenever that is...

 

Andy G

[Compound2632]

The difference is that the vulnerable can be inoculated against the current strain of flu.

[Andy Hayter]

Building on Stephen's reply

The problem is that unlike other viral illnesses we do not yet as a population have a degree of natural immunity.  A bad flu year might take out 60000 souls - and that is with immunisation of the vulnerable.  Most years it is about 40000 and that number is already exceeded in 7 or so months of C 19.  In that 7 months we have suffered lock downs, social distancing, face masks, alcohol scrubs.   Without those it is quite probable that up to 250000 could have died, and might do so still if we relax our precautions.  Add to that, there is no guarantee that would be the end of it either.   We have no idea about how long or short a time period immunity might give us (also applies to vaccines).  

 

The one fully authenticated example of a person who has had C 19 twice does provide some hope for at least short term immunity.  He was hospitalised in the first instance.  In the second instance he was shown to have been infected with a different variant of the virus but was asymptomatic.  The positives from this  are firstly that his second bout was very less severe than the first and secondly although the virus had mutated for the second attack, he still seemed to have a degree of immunity that prevented him from fall ill with the virus.

 

However as they say, One swallow does not ................................

 

 

 

.................. a satisfying nightcap make. 

Edited September 16, 2020 by Andy Hayter

[uax6]

Although 250,000 seems a lot its still less than 1% of the countries population, so it real terms is more or less invisible. Yes its awful if anyone dies, but the reality is that the world is vastly overpopulated, and maybe that we need to accept that this is Mother nature trying to balance the books.

 

I also find it quite strange that we seem so confident of finding a vaccine, the common cold is a corona virus, and we haven't found one for that yet. Yes its been around a lot longer, but there is some evidence that some Japanese have a natural immunity to Covid, so it may well be something that we have to live with in the short term, building up resistance as we go. We will also need to accept that the mortality rate will skyrocket for the sort term, but will settle back down again in the long run..

 

Contentious thoughts I know....

 

Andy G

 

[Compound2632]

One might, in the context of this thread, look at mortality from viral infections in the Edwardian period. First article in a search here, though it appears to be a reply to a comment I haven't been able to get back to the original paper, but it gives a flavour.

[Nearholmer]

19 minutes ago, Compound2632 said:

The difference is that the vulnerable can be inoculated against the current strain of flu.

 

Two key numerical differences:

 

- the R number for seasonal flu seems to typically be about 1.3, rising to 1.8 in flu pandemics, whereas for Covid-19 it gets above 3 without heavy intervention. So, Covid "spreads like wildfire".

 

- the mortality rate for seasonal flu is below 1%, whereas for Covid-19 it seems to be far higher. There are oodles of different numbers around, but the WHO seem to say 3% to 4%. But it is heavily age-dependent; a reputable US academic study found it to be 1.9% for <5yo and 61% for those >65yo in the US (for seasonal flu it is 0.83% for >65yo).

 

A "keep a stiff upper lip and let it rip" strategy would lead to a very impressive body count indeed in the short term, followed by a long trail of bodies over following months/years, and I can't imagine any politician in a democracy ever permitting that (possibly in the US, if the present incumbent gets a second term).

 

We're just going to have to find practical and effective ways of controlling the rate of spread without causing mayhem in every walk of life. School "bubbles", even in senior schools might have to go down to class, rather than year, size for instance, and pub licensing hours might have to go back to where they were in the 1970s maybe. We might even have to impose regional travel restrictions - put cordons sanitaire around conurbations as the Chinese do. And, surely the UK needs to enforce self-isolation, rather than trust everybody to do the right thing, when a steady few percent won't. testing has to work properly, tracing has to be rigorous, that sort of thing.

 

Oh dear, I banged-on again.

[Compound2632]

5 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

School "bubbles", even in senior schools might have to go down to class, rather than year, size

 

So how do you deal with GCSE option subjects and streaming? You can't simply have the same 30 pupils going round together from lesson to lesson beyond year 8, or year 9 at a pinch.

Edited September 16, 2020 by Compound2632

[webbcompound]

The difference between this and earlier pandemics is that our society is less robust. Food is no longer produced locally, and all systems are much more complex and so fail much more easily.  This means that although the death toll might be much less its impact on our infrastructure could be much greater.  Lose a few loco drivers in the Edwardian period and the firemen can step up. Lose a few airline pilots, or indeed engine drivers now and it is far more difficult to replace them.  As a young man I could fix my four stroke motorbike at the side of the road, and not long before that pretty well every motor vehicle operator knew how to get their vehicle running if it broke down. Now you need a specially trained expert. 

 

In addition the really significant medical difference between Covid19 and flu is in the after effects on survivors. It is becoming increasingly clear that at the moment survivors, even of mild versions, can have serious knock on illness

[Nearholmer]

3 minutes ago, Compound2632 said:

So how do you deal with GCSE option subjects and streaming? You can't simply have the same 30 pupils going round together from lesson to lesson beyond year 8, or year 9 at a pinch.

 

Mighty blooming challenging ..........  there is streaming in Maths and English in primary schools and from Year 7 onwards at secondary schools, so the problem kicks-in well below Year 8.

 

How would one teach a typically random-ability class of thirty children on an isolated island, so as to maximise the development of their individual potentials?

[Compound2632]

5 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

 

Mighty blooming challenging ..........  there is streaming in Maths and English in primary schools and from Year 7 onwards at secondary schools, so the problem kicks-in well below Year 8.

 

How would one teach a typically random-ability class of thirty children on an isolated island, so as to maximise the development of their individual potentials?

 

The merits of streaming vs. mixed attainment teaching is much discussed - and I have seen examples of the latter being done brilliantly, if exhaustingly. 

[Andy Hayter]

Andy 250000 is the headline C 19 deaths.  You then have to look at the knock on consequences - some of the illustrated in recent posts regarding the simple logistics of living.

 

Add to that:

The health service becomes swamped.  Other treatments cease.  These include treatment for cancer, heart operations, etc.  This will add to the death toll - albeit with a time delay.

Additionally there will be many in need of a more routine operation - hip, knee replacements.  The delay in treatment will likely spill down the years as patients suffer but have to wait (even longer).  

We have already seen that a disproportionate number of those who will be severely impacted or die are health workers.  This compounds the problems.

The final killer (perhaps literally) we are seeing in a significant number of cases that there re long term impacts on the survivors.  Lung weakness, brain issues, long term joint pain are just a few of the issues being reported.  So even the survivors may be long term incapacitated.  

You have clearly stated your reaction should the grim reaper take you.  What would be the reaction if you survived, but were in sufficient pain that you could no longer model *for the remaining 40 years of your life?

 

* or do anything similar - DIY, simple tasks around the house, maybe even changing a light bulb.

[Nearholmer]

27 minutes ago, Compound2632 said:

The merits of streaming vs. mixed attainment teaching is much discussed

 With a bro who was deputy head of a secondary school, a SiL who was a teacher, and a late father who was a teacher of 'special needs' pupils, I've sat through it at the dinner table.

 

But here, I wonder if we might be facing the choice between more mixed ability teaching to control bubble sizes, and the near-collapse of meaningful education because bigger bubbles mean more frequent isolations.

 

A bodged compromise might be to create classes of 30 that are themselves roughly streamed - highly imperfect because people don't come in neat "finds all subjects a breeze", "average at everything" and "struggling a bit with everything" packages, most of us find some subjects easy and others utterly incomprehensible, but it might help a bit.

[brianusa]

A really cheerful collection of posts!  Whatever happened to pre grouping modelling and prototype?  The actual news with covid, governmental errors, trump and (in our case) fires and smoke, is enough.  We haven't seen clean air in weeks and theres no real relief in sight;  I need happy talk.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

     Some pictures of late Victorian locos would be a good start!

                 Brian.

[Nearholmer]

Sorry Brian.

 

This is jolliest late-Victorian loco picture I could find. Please accept it as an apology.

 

 

Edited September 16, 2020 by Nearholmer

[monkeysarefun]

1 hour ago, brianusa said:

Some pictures of late Victorian locos would be a good start!

 

 

This one was due to arrive at  Spencer Street at 19:21 but didn't get there until around 19:32. Does that help?

 

 

 

Edited September 16, 2020 by monkeysarefun

[St Enodoc]

1 hour ago, monkeysarefun said:

 

 

This one was due to arrive at  Spencer Street at 19:21 but didn't get there until around 19:32. Does that help?

 

 

 

 

The same day? You were lucky!

[St Enodoc]

4 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

How would one teach a typically random-ability class of thirty children on an isolated island, so as to maximise the development of their individual potentials?

Just leave 'em to it.

 

W. Golding.

[monkeysarefun]

7 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

This is jolliest late-Victorian loco picture I could find.

 

This one will turn that frown upside down too!

 

[Malcolm 0-6-0]

And another funny one. The juxtaposition of the bald headed chap and the steam dome can't be accidental.