Hornby's financial updates to the Stock Market

[adb968008]

Having skimmed through this lengthy subject, it brings me back to a conversation I had with Charlie Skelton of the famous W&H shop at a Toy Fair in Earls Court in the late 1970s.

 

We were talking about Hornby producing new models, and comparing their output compared to the likes of say Roco. Charlie's point was that when Roco brings out a new European model, it will sell tens of thousands all over the world because there are modellers and collectors of things in HO scale. For instance a model of a Belgian loco could be seen in Holland, France, Germany and Luxembourg so would sell 100,000. A typical British loco such as the class 47 would only be seen in Britain and would be bought by modellers with a production run of say 5,000. Collectors weren't interested as they collect things in HO scale as they were the wrong size.

I'd question this figures.

Brawa's superb pt31 was produced in a run of 50 in 2 different pkp liveries, plus they also made Russia, OBB, DR versions.

Piko's pkp EU07 /sm42 / su45 are advertised as runs of 500, and are not limited, they just repeat batches with new numbers.

I have an NS 4-6-0 which I think was 150.

 

 

If 100,000 BR01s were being made, the market would be a wash with them second hand, and certainly not at the prices they are.

 

Taking the Roco BR01 as a guide, a staple loco in the rangę sińce the 1970's and surely one of the more popular main stream larger locos .. then the Lima 47, another massively produced UK loco... (Fleischmann also did a BR01, as has Hornby, Heljan and Bachmann added compeition to the class 47)

 

Using ebay as a guide,

- there are 88 Roco BR01's for sale tonight, 276 sold in history on ebay.de (291 worldwide sold).

- there are 354 Lima class 47s on ebay tonight, 527 sold in history on ebay.co.uk (527 worldwide soję also).

 

There are 200 Roco BR44's sold on ebay.de (and this has acquired various european liveries), but doesnt touch the Lima class 47, which i'd guess at being over 75k of them out there.

The Roco v200 shows 200 sold, and 90 listed, and this too is a diesel that's stood the test of time.

 

Of course the other possibility is that Germanic modellers dispose of higher value models in the bin, where as in the U.K. we are more determined to get money back for cheap older models ?

Edited May 16, 2017 by adb968008

[asmay2002]

Having skimmed through this lengthy subject, it brings me back to a conversation I had with Charlie Skelton of the famous W&H shop at a Toy Fair in Earls Court in the late 1970s.

 

We were talking about Hornby producing new models, and comparing their output compared to the likes of say Roco. Charlie's point was that when Roco brings out a new European model, it will sell tens of thousands all over the world because there are modellers and collectors of things in HO scale. For instance a model of a Belgian loco could be seen in Holland, France, Germany and Luxembourg so would sell 100,000. A typical British loco such as the class 47 would only be seen in Britain and would be bought by modellers with a production run of say 5,000. Collectors weren't interested as they collect things in HO scale as they were the wrong size.

 A typical Belgian loco would only be seen in Belgium. Their loading gauge was biggger than some of the other continental empires which is why not many Belgian locos were nicked by the Germans in WW2. German stuff on the other hand could be seen all over the place.

Edited May 16, 2017 by asmay2002

[jjb1970]

ROCO  and  Fleischmann  both   became  bankrupt,  both  now  trade  under  the  Modelleisenbahn GmbH  umbrella,  continuing  to use  their  individual  brand  names,  (and  still producing  very  High  Quality models in several  scales,  at  a  price!)

 

If I remember rightly the Roco financial issues were particularly messy as not all of the IP to their products were held by the Roco company, wasn't the IP to the original Rocoline ballasted track system held by somebody else? I remember at the time it seemed a very messy affair and the reborn Roco wasn't that successful either and went tango uniform again.

[Ozexpatriate]

"The requisitioned general meeting held today was adjourned indefinitely with the approval of the company's shareholders".

 

With that behind them, Hornby PLC can get back to business.

 

Hopefully the roundel-badged Collett coaches will sell well. I'm passing on these. (I would jump at a fully lined early Collett livery though.)

Edited May 16, 2017 by Ozexpatriate

[Bernard Lamb]

Of course the other possibility is that Germanic modellers dispose of higher value models in the bin, where as in the U.K. we are more determined to get money back for cheap older models ?

It has always puzzled me why many UK modellers regard locomotives as collectables while I regard them as consumables. To me once I have bought an article I get the use out of it that I require and after that any resale value is incidental.

The odd thing is that a lot of these people who flog their junk on Ebay will think nothing of spending several £100 on a phone that has a very limited life.

Bernard

[adb968008]

It has always puzzled me why many UK modellers regard locomotives as collectables while I regard them as consumables. To me once I have bought an article I get the use out of it that I require and after that any resale value is incidental.

The odd thing is that a lot of these people who flog their junk on Ebay will think nothing of spending several £100 on a phone that has a very limited life.

Bernard

 

Perhaps it's because a model locomotive is an emotional purchase, where as a phone is a practical purchase.

In the real world a locomotive is a practical purchase for a company, which enthusiasts attach an emotional value.

 

when it comes to disposal selling a model locomotive is an emotional transaction, where as a phone isnt.

Edited May 17, 2017 by adb968008

[JSpencer]

It has always puzzled me why many UK modellers regard locomotives as collectables while I regard them as consumables. To me once I have bought an article I get the use out of it that I require and after that any resale value is incidental.

The odd thing is that a lot of these people who flog their junk on Ebay will think nothing of spending several £100 on a phone that has a very limited life.

Bernard

 

I agree with the post above this one and will add that we are not likely to throw the item away. We don't just buy one loco, but instead add locos to a fleet. We may upgrade from an 80s A3 to super detailed modern A3 however the original will be sold on ebay or just kept.

[coachmann]

Judging by dealers emails advertising clear outs, May Madness etc,  I wonder if manufacturers will think twice before producing any more LNER stuff.  I can only conclude LNER livery in general has not been been as popular as believed, yet a Halfords spraycan of satin black plus BR transfers could quickly turn a Claud or Q6 into a bargain.

Edited May 17, 2017 by coachmann

[Ian Hargrave]

Judging by dealers emails advertising clear outs, May Madness etc,  I wonder if manufacturers will think twice before producing any more LNER stuff.  I can only conclude LNER livery in general has not been been as popular as believed, yet a Halfords spraycan of satin black plus BR transfers could quickly turn a Claud or Q6 into a bargain.

Off topic apologies....the so called "May Madness" is a perfect example of rebranding or old wine in new bottles.....but then you have to sell to keep afloat.

[Bernard Lamb]

Off topic apologies....the so called "May Madness" is a perfect example of rebranding or old wine in new bottles.....but then you have to sell to keep afloat.

But at those prices you will not keep afloat in the long term. The dealer quoted has other irons in the fire. They are prepared to hold certain second hand stock for a much longer time period at much higher mark ups. I pity the smaller model shop who simply cannot compete with those prices. Just watch what happens when they are all forced out of business. I wonder what will happen with the forthcoming batch of J15s.

Bernard

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

...it brings me back to a conversation I had with Charlie Skelton of the famous W&H shop at a Toy Fair in Earls Court in the late 1970s...

 And that store fairly soon after went out of business! Forty years ago, we were worried about Japanese competition, the Chinese were still Maoist, and everyone knew the UK would never elect a female prime minister. Much too much has changed since for direct comparison.

 

I think the thing that gives the rumour credibility is the product programs of each range...

 Quite: Hornby have been there or thereabouts 'underwater' financially for longer than the development time of models. So given that pressure directing them to only invest in what makes the best returns, we may be fairly confident that they are now focussed on what does the business for them.

 

Supporting external evidence: in the last five years - encompassing Hornby recognisably in trouble - Realtrack, DJM, Oxford Rail, SLW, Rapido, have all thrown their hats in the ring for OO RTR, and there is more retailer commissioning activity than ever. Is that growth in competition happening in UK slot car/plastic kits/model paint supplies and HO RTR products? (Genuine question: I am not fully informed on these sectors due to not that much interested.) Businesses enter a sector in the belief that they can make a profit, not out of sentiment; and of the 'traditional mechanical hobby products' it seems to be model railway that is making the running. (Whether there is enough pie for everyone to enjoy a big enough slice, a different question.)

[Coryton]

 

Supporting external evidence: in the last five years - encompassing Hornby recognisably in trouble - Realtrack, DJM, Oxford Rail, SLW, Rapido, have all thrown their hats in the ring for OO RTR, and there is more retailer commissioning activity than ever. Is that growth in competition happening in UK slot car/plastic kits/model paint supplies and HO RTR products? (Genuine question: I am not fully informed on these sectors due to not that much interested.) Businesses enter a sector in the belief that they can make a profit, not out of sentiment; and of the 'traditional mechanical hobby products' it seems to be model railway that is making the running. (Whether there is enough pie for everyone to enjoy a big enough slice, a different question.)

 

Businesses usually have to make money (or at the very least not lose it).

 

However, I don't think that the likes of Realtrack and Rapido have gone into model trains because they've looked at various sectors and decided it's more profitable than making plane kits or slot cars.

 

Doesn't one of the people behind Rapido have a 1:1 scale (part) railway coach in his basement?

[Mike Storey]

I think the thing that gives the rumour credibility is the product programs of each range. The Hornby International ranges are treading water with a rather modest series of new items almost all of which is existing tooling. And it appears that they have pulled the plug on their US range. Airfix have also scaled back and have a rather modest new release program. Hornby OO on the other hand still has quite an ambitious program for a company losing money. You would reasonably expect limited funds to be directed to those areas of the business with the best performance which indicates that OO trains are performing better than some other parts of the business.

That said, as an enrhusiast of Italian HO a lot of my purchases have been from Rivarossi and Lima Expert over the last couple of years and I'd love to see a more ambitious program as their Italian models are superb.

 

Well, if they are not trying, I would like to see things when they are.

 

I have just returned from Italy, seeing family, and bought my usual collection of mags (iTreni, Mondo Ferrovario and Tutto Treno). In every one, HI had taken out a full page advert for Lima Expert, for their new Gr 851. Of most interest, for that market, they have made a central feature of their Italian team, Daniela and Fabrizio, with big photos. They are clearly trying to show that, for all the news in HI shutting down their expensive European admin centres, they are still very much in the game. The personal aspect contrasts greatly with their French advertising and of course, with their UK marketing, where personalities seem to be anonymous in a public sense (despite the very welcome, occasional posts by their new marketing manager on here).

 

I do wonder why? It seems appropriate for Italy, where trust in a person is key, but it has mixed use in the UK and in France. Dyson and GTECH are good examples where an individual is identified, but since Simon left Hornby (as a full timer anyway), there is no face of Hornby, just a facebook style facsimile on their website. Bachmann do have Dennis but even he is known only to those in the know. Interesting contrast from within the same company.

[fife 27]

In Hornby's case the decision is problematic as the previous management built their entire strategy and infrastructure (warehousing, ERP, trendy offices in Shoreditch etc) around a primarily direct sales channel. As silly as that was predicted and turned out to be, the current team cannot simply stop selling direct without incurring massive write offs and further expensive reorganisation. The company is not in a position financially to do that. So they will be slowly unwinding the previous strategy, and they have made clear their new approach, but it will take time to get there.

 

and fingers crossed they will get there. we need Hornby! we really do. can't let a household name Hornby disappear like that. my first model train set was a class 25 and two coachs with track and controller.happy days. that was 1978 last week i bought six ferry waggon s and two rail express systems brake vans. keeping the Hornby dream alive.  

Edited May 19, 2017 by fife 27

[Coryton]

https://www.amazon.it/Lima-HL1241-Treno-Italo-Radiocomandato/dp/B0090IKSJG

I thought Hornby tried to announce something very like that at the 2016 London and Nuremberg toy shows.

 

Hornby Junior appeared on one of these threads at some point (EDIT) in London, and Nuremberg,

 

I don't believe this materialized and even if it had, it's hard to imagine they would

1. 'fly off the shelves'
2. offer better margins than high-fidelity models for adult enthusiasts

The toy market is brutal. Hornby's flirtations with toys (other than trains, slot cars, paint and kits) all had pretty legendarily bad results.

 

The nicest thing I recall Simon Kohler writing about the "Fairy Flowers" line of toys that Hornby once experimented with was that the grotto he established at the London Toy Show was a respite from the trade floor after a big night out.

 

The idea of Simon (or others) hiding amongst the fairy flowers to escape the model railway punters is an amusing one (even if I am taking liberties with the truth there).

 

I'm quite curious about this.

 

There are some photos of a real model (rather than just a box) on this thread.

 

It looks like an ETR500 Frecciarossa in (an) Italian Railways livery (and with the "FS" logo). 

 

The artists impressions on the Hornby web site suggest the real thing is going to be the same model in a vaguely UK livery with a yellow end.

 

So presumably they are using an existing product. But from where?

 

Now there's this toy train set by Motorama, which looks not dissimilar.

 

But also this - an existing product looking very much like the Hornby Junior set, under the Lima brand (not something like Lima Junior to differentiate it from their "real" train sets) at 25 Euros.

 

Anyway neither the Hornby Junior or Lima product look like the Marklin "My World" trains - these look less robust (but more realistic), with fiddly plastic couplings not big magnetic ones. Also not remote controlled, which is a big disadvantage in play value. Also bogie vehicles - again more realism than the Markin 4 wheel coaches and power cars but easier for a small child to put on the track.

 

But wait - there's also this Lima set which looks very very much like Marklin "My World" - big chunky robust looking vehicles with magnetic couplers and remote control, but with the same plastic clip-together track as the Hornby Junior set, not the Marklin integral ballast track.

 

Out of stock on Amazon, but found it on ebay, also specifically NOT to be shipped to the UK.

 

I am now very very confused.

 

 

I'm quite curious about this.,

 

[jjb1970]

The Lima brand seems to be a bit mixed up, encompassing as it does this toy market stuff through the HO equivalent of railroad through to the high end Lima Expert range. The Lima Expert E636 and E645/6 models are stunning and better models than some that generate a lot of froth.

[Coryton]

The Lima brand seems to be a bit mixed up, encompassing as it does this toy market stuff through the HO equivalent of railroad through to the high end Lima Expert range. The Lima Expert E636 and E645/6 models are stunning and better models than some that generate a lot of froth.

 

I don't see anything wrong with the Lima brand covering this range, so long as they are clearly differentiated. 

 

This doesn't seem to be the case with the toy end sets though - having toy and 'real' train sets under the same brand without any distinction seems strange.

 

Having said that, Marklin uses the "My World" brand for both their 3+ toys and Railroad style models and it seems to work, but the packaging is very different, the models can't really be confused and so it's not hard to tell one product from the other.

 

I have wondered if this is an attempt to ease the transition from toys to entry-level models, by putting them in the same catalogue and having both come up when you search on "My World".

 

The other curious thing is that the Marklin novelties (like vans you can write on the sides of, and flat trucks with a Lego (style) baseplate built in, are in the 'proper' not the toy range.

[jjb1970]

The thing that struck me as being a bit odd about Lima is that their expert range competes to some extent with Rivarossi. Originally it seemed that Rivarossi was the high end brand with Lima offering lower cost entry level models. The Lima Expert range has binned that distinction. I believe that the Expert range was the brainchild of Hornby Italy with development being done in Italy as opposed to Rivarossi and the other Lima models which were part of Hornby International in Spain. Not that I'm complaining as the Lima Expert articulated electrics are genuinely superb models as good as the best HO available and very keenly priced.

[it's-er]

Hornby have announced their latest full year results - see here at 8.34am

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-40300846

 

The news that Hornby has cut its full-year pre-tax loss to £9.5m from £13.5m in 2016 is 'good news' in a sense, but £9.5m is still an awful lot of money to lose in one year. I don't have any further information to go on, but if some of our stock exchange and accountancy knowledgable friends can comment, we will learn more.

 

John Storey

[The Stationmaster]

Even more interesting is that this morning Phoenix Asset Management have bid for New Pistoia's entire holding in Hornby (17, 641,161 shares at 32.375p per share) and would now have overall control with 55% of the shares. Phoenix are bidding for all shares at that price.

 

http://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/Hornby/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=1477&newsid=884207

[JSpencer]

Even more interesting is that this morning Phoenix Asset Management have bid for New Pistoia's entire holding in Hornby (17, 641,161 shares at 32.375p per share) and would now have overall control with 55% of the shares. Phoenix are bidding for all shares at that price.

 

http://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/Hornby/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=1477&newsid=884207

 

Mr Anton still being overly keen to take over the company I wonder??

[Coryton]

Even more interesting is that this morning Phoenix Asset Management have bid for New Pistoia's entire holding in Hornby (17, 641,161 shares at 32.375p per share) and would now have overall control with 55% of the shares. Phoenix are bidding for all shares at that price.

 

http://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/Hornby/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=1477&newsid=884207

 

Hmmm.

 

"[Phoenix] believes that Hornby has an attractive portfolio of brands and it is PAMP's intention to work collaboratively with the management and the board of Hornby to review all strategic options for the business including, but not limited to, acquisitions, disposals, licensing agreements, funding requirements together with management and board composition"

[The Stationmaster]

Hmmm.

 

"[Phoenix] believes that Hornby has an attractive portfolio of brands and it is PAMP's intention to work collaboratively with the management and the board of Hornby to review all strategic options for the business including, but not limited to, acquisitions, disposals, licensing agreements, funding requirements together with management and board composition"

 

However elsewhere they have identified Hornby and Airfix as core brands for the progress towards profitability.

 

Beyond that I think there are so many options available to them we could be playing b*llsh*t bingo in this thread until the end of the decade 'discussing' them.

[Vistisen]

However elsewhere they have identified Hornby and Airfix as core brands for the progress towards profitability.

 

Beyond that I think there are so many options available to them we could be playing b*llsh*t bingo in this thread until the end of the decade 'discussing' them.

 

 

I'm ready

 

http://www.bullshitbingo.net/cards//

Edited June 21, 2017 by Vistiaen

[Mike at C&M]

Have the detailed accounts been released? if so, can someone provide a link, please.