Musings on Rapido

[jjb1970]

I am also fascinated by the effect Trumponomics will have on things like Apple iPads . Constructed in China but sold in US . Again I wonder if globalisation has just enabled companies to make much more money than would previously have been acceptable ie 40% margins instead of 20%. I'd imagine constructing in the US for the US will cost lots more in labour but maybe all that will happen is that the prices will remain the same, reflecting that's there's a limit to what people will pay. Maybe companies will accept a lower margin and the new reality of make in US or face stiff import charges . Not that iPads are in any way related to model railways . Volumes and I suspect margins are much larger for iPads , but still fascinating to see which way it will go. And there will be fall out and lesson that will affect model railways. As Jason points out what happens on import tariffs is key.

 

I think a lot of people are worried about Trumponomics. Protectionism sounds great to somebody who lost their job and blames it on somebody in China but it may look a lot less attractive in a couple of years. I'm juggling hand grenades with an issue in the US just now which is playing well in terms of populist politics but could potentially backfire spectacularly. And the thing that is lost on those cheerleading the particular issue is that they are the ones with the most to lose and who stand to pay the price. If I didn't have responsibilities to those paying my wages and a moral responsibility to the people on the coalface that look to my employer to protect their interests then I'd be tempted to just sit back and wring my hands but life is seldom that simple.

[The Stationmaster]

Yes but underlines my point. Maybe some large corporations ( which in turn reflect shareholders aspirations) are just too ambitious when it comes to margins, I was going to say greedy! . If they did bring manufacturing back to US , their margins would certainly be impacted , but maybe that's the new reality or face import tariffs that will have same effect. Model railways is a cottage industry by comparison .

 

I think there's probably more to it than margins and direct labour costs in a country like the US where employers generally pay health insurance for their staff.  But of course it goes beyond simple labour matters extending into areas where automation has had its effect and umpteen other things.  Looking at, for example, the way manpower was reduced in the British steel industry while output increased or the way use of robots has increased in car factories it is difficult to see how moving  steel and car production back into the USA is going to get huge numbers of Detroit etc unemployed back into work.  And will US labour look happily on the prospect of, say assembling iPads for a living, perhaps a similar sort of parallel with asking local labour to harvest vegetables in Britain?

 

The simplicity of Trumponomics strikes me as its weakness and probable long term downfall as it will never be able to deliver what many who voted for it actually have been led to expect.  The simplicity of Trump's words and promises was rather starkly demonstrated by a piece on Newsnight recently about the state of Montana - about the size of Germany but with a population of 1 million and about 20 (twenty) recent immigrants of Middle Eastern origin and largely strongly against further immigration so strongly supporting Trump.   One is left asking why that should be the case? 

[Fenman]

... And will US labour look happily on the prospect of, say assembling iPads for a living, perhaps a similar sort of parallel with asking local labour to harvest vegetables in Britain? ...

 

In my overwhelmingly rural part of Norfolk, pretty much the entire fruit & veg labour-force is provided by eastern Europeans and people from the Baltics (plus a few desperate Portuguese). They mostly work for gangmasters, allocated to one giant farm for a few weeks at a time. The usual situation is that each person pays £10 a day for accommodation in a shared caravan (it's usually +/- 6 to a caravan). This must be paid whether or not they earn any money on that day. The caravans are on the farmland, literally miles from anywhere with a shop. They are paid just over £7 an hour.

 

At the big asparagus farm down the road, part of a large group of farms, they could work 12 hours in a day or they could work none. They only know the night before (not the afternoon or evening before) what they will be expected to do the next day. They could start work at 3am, picking asparagus under artificial light, the start time depending entirely on the needs of the market (the "just in time" concept is not confined to manufacturing). Once a week they are driven the ten miles or so to the nearest supermarket for an hour or so shopping. Picking asparagus is, of course, back-breaking work.

 

I cannot imagine any British person being willing to accept such jobs on similar conditions. Which does make me wonder why we apparently think it's ok for immigrants to work in that way.

 

And yet we've all got used to cheap food; and supermarkets engage in a vicious price war to pander to us, forcing farms to keep costs low (and, this being Norfolk, the landowners won't be squeezing their own profit margins).

 

We do seem to have created a brutal economic system which no longer, if it ever did, seems to be working for the majority. I do worry about where we might be going.

 

Paul

Edited February 11, 2017 by Fenman

[PaulRhB]

Cor! I thought Rapido made trains, the asparagus market knows no bounds

[Budgie]

In my overwhelmingly rural part of Norfolk, pretty much the entire fruit & veg labour-force is provided by eastern Europeans and people from the Baltics (plus a few desperate Portuguese). They mostly work for gangmasters, allocated to one giant farm for a few weeks at a time. The usual situation is that each person pays £10 a day for accommodation in a shared caravan (it's usually +/- 6 to a caravan). This must be paid whether or not they earn any money on that day. The caravans are on the farmland, literally miles from anywhere with a shop. They are paid just over £7 an hour.

 

At the big asparagus farm down the road, part of a large group of farms, they could work 12 hours in a day or they could work none. They only know the night before (not the afternoon or evening before) what they will be expected to do the next day. They could start work at 3am, picking asparagus under artificial light, the start time depending entirely on the needs of the market (the "just in time" concept is not confined to manufacturing). Once a week they are driven the ten miles or so to the nearest supermarket for an hour or so shopping. Picking asparagus is, of course, back-breaking work.

 

I cannot imagine any British person being willing to accept such jobs on similar conditions. Which does make me wonder why we apparently think it's ok for immigrants to work in that way.

 

And yet we've all got used to cheap food; and supermarkets engage in a vicious price war to pander to us, forcing farms to keep costs low (and, this being Norfolk, the landowners won't be squeezing their own profit margins).

 

We do seem to have created a brutal economic system which no longer, if it ever did, seems to be working for the majority. I do worry about where we might be going.

 

Paul

All of this sounds highly illegal to me. When are we going to see some prosecutions?

[Adams442T]

All of this sounds highly illegal to me. When are we going to see some prosecutions?

 

Possibly never.  The 'complainants' would immediately lose their jobs and probably be assaulted into the bargain.  Besides which the immigrants fear the Police (I know l was a copper for 20 years) and it's very hard to persuade them to talk even when you might think it would be in their own best interests to do so.

 

What we will do for veg when the immigrants return to Eastern Europe I don't know.  In Lincolnshire you see them freezing their ass off on tractor drawn conveyors so we can have fresh veg at the supermarkets.  Saw some early this morning in a local field, it was 0-1 degrees according to my in car thermometer.  Can you see the Brits working in those conditions?  I don't think so!

[Adams442T]

It does occur to me though that this has strayed somewhat from 'musings on Rapido' so perhaps we ought to cease this before we get 'chopped'!

 

[Fenman]

All of this sounds highly illegal to me. When are we going to see some prosecutions?

 

Why? National Minimum Wage is £7.20 an hour. Gangmasters are, of course, "regulated", so that's alright then...

 

Anyway, apologies for the OT asparagus interlude.

 

Paul

[Kelly]

Why? National Minimum Wage is £7.20 an hour. Gangmasters are, of course, "regulated", so that's alright then...

 

Anyway, apologies for the OT asparagus interlude.

 

Paul

The workers are probably paid on zero hour contracts, further complicating the situation.

[The Stationmaster]

The workers are probably paid on zero hour contracts, further complicating the situation.

 

That is the norm with contract labour forces in Britain now.  But if you extend that to model railway manufacture the overall figures remain the same because the labour input is basically what is achieved in an hour at whatever hourly rate plus labour overheads (such as NI in Britain, healthcare in the US and staff accommodation for some factories in China).  What matters at the end is the total labour cost etc per hour to produce a whatever in the different countries where you are considering placing manufacturing.

 

As Legend asked at the top of this page you cannot avoid one important question which is what the labour cost is as part of overall costs and it probably remains a relatively small number where total labour cost is cheap - Jason has kindly given us details in the past.  

But there are other significant costs and the relevant one as far as the HST prototype is concerned is how the costs of development and tooling would be covered/recovered especially when the £ sterling cost and retail price is a very mobile target exacerbated by what is often projected (accurately or not) as a very price sensitive market.  That really is largely what counts in a decision to go ahead with spending big money on getting a model to the production stage and Rapido's policy up to now is basically risk averse and only proceeding where firm orders exist; they're hardly like to change from that model in a situation where the number of imponderables seem to be increasing by the week.

[Neal Ball]

Last Autumn we had the Home office Immigration officers swoop onto a farm round here. Four or five vans, not sure how many illegals they found.

 

Anyway back to Rapido!

[sjgardiner]

For anyone who hasn't figured it out.  Jason is both a good business person, and a good time.  He is equal parts serious and silly in good measure.  If you ever do get a chance to chat trains/buses/Doctor Who with him, you'll no doubt enjoy it.

 

Today I had the pleasure of another road trip day with Jason on the Rapido New Look Bus to a train show.  You can read about our silly day out (sadly, to protect the innocent, the silliest of our on-bus commentary is for riders ears only!!).  That said, you can read about the highlights on my blog about our day out here: https://sjgardiner.wordpress.com/2017/03/05/2017-copetown-train-show/

 

 

Cheers,

 

Stephen

[davknigh]

What happens on the Rapido Bus stays on the Rapido Bus?

 

Cheers,

 

David

[rapidobill]

What happens on the Rapido Bus stays on the Rapido Bus?

 

Cheers,

 

David

Not if Stephen posts it on his blog first! 

 

Bill

[sjgardiner]

Not if Stephen posts it on his blog first! 

 

Bill

 

I was going to be a smart alek and say the first rule of Rapido Bus is no one talks about Rapido Bus, but i way blew past that one!!

 

I've learned over the years that your road trips sound a lot more degenerate than they probably were if you tease that you aren't telling people the good stuff!!

 

Stephen

[sjgardiner]

Seemed like as good a place as any for this, but column in the Globe and Mail today by a Mr. Shron on owning a vintage bus as a mid life crisis!

 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/first-person/article-sports-car-nope-i-bought-a-midlife-crisis-bus-instead/?utm_medium=Referrer:+Social+Network+/+Media&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links

 

Stephen

[woodenhead]

He didn't mention the coach in his basement 

[The Stationmaster]

He didn't mention the coach in his basement 

 

Some people might think that's a bit oddball, and we wouldn't like anybody to start thinking about Jason in that way so perhaps safer just to mention his 'bus.