BRM Poll - How long do you expect to wait for a model?

[edcayton]

I am intrigued that more than three days in, rather fewer than 150 people have voted. Yet the posts indicate strongly-held views, as Andy Y had obviously sensed.

 

I'm not. A lot of people have said the question was not clear, whilst I gave an answer  our Leader disagreed with and got a bollocking!

 

Ed

 

BTW I did say "getting on for" 5 years. This may be another thread I am banned from.

[The Stationmaster]

I love the aura of financial well being in which so many people live - apparently ascribing bottomless pockets to the manufacturers and commissioners.

 

'Let's leave it until you have an EP before announcing' - so that would mean at least 3 and possibly 4 radial tanks sitting well into (expensive) development before we get to know about them - who then faces big losses and has to pull the plug?

 

'Let's wait until all the research has been done, scans have been done, and CADS are finalised before announcing the model' - so someone spends £30,000 plus before finding out that a competitor has gone just a tiny bit further and will be competing with them.  Do these people know how long full research actually takes, do they know how much scanning actually costs or that you have to pay for CADs?

 

I much prefer early announcement because at least I know that someone is on the case and that one day the model is likely to appear - even if it will take time to get there.  Hornby and Bachmann can - at the moment afford to get their research and development in before announcing but as competition for the remaining 'commercial' models stiffens we will either see more duplication or folk backing a way from spending on late announcement (as Bachmann already seem to have done in some instances).  The situation I think is very simple - if we want choice then early announcement is likely to become even more prominent especially as costs rocket upwards where companies have to buy in work such as CADs from overseas.

[Scottish-Exile]

I've returned to railway modelling this year after a 30+ year gap. I'm finding the whole process of announcements somewhat bizarre, frustrating and downright ridiculous.

 

I come from automotive where new models (1:1 scale!) are announced/unveiled at the major trade fairs Geneva (March) or Frankfurt/Paris (October) and are ready to drive out the showrooms 3 months later. While there was always speculation in the motor press about what new models were coming, the whole process from unvieling to drive was between 3 to a maximum of 6 months. Of course, sometimes there would be the teaser 'show cars' that would give a taster of something that might make it to production in a few years, such as when Jaguar first showed it might enter the SUV market etc.

 

The motor manufacturers seem to have a better grip on releasing cars to market. Announcing too early would of course kill off demand for existing models. They are still able to work on long term plans in relative secrecy, e.g. I've seen some of the mock-ups for what the 'facelift' model will look like in 3 years time when the original all new model was still a month away from being unveiled to the public.

 

Being new to railway modelling, I find it somewhat disheartening. Deciding to model ScotRail 1980's-1990's I was delighted to discover that Bachmann made DBSO's. A bit more research showed that despite being announced in 2012/13 it is still nowhere near production and is unlikely to be in model shops for another year or two.

 

Appreciate some may say I should scratch build or pay for someone to make me one, but my skills are lacking for the former and my wallet baulks at the latter.

[Gwiwer]

I have answered honestly and frankly based upon a few years of experience across the hobby.  12 - 24 months seems a reasonable wait in a hobby - and for most of us it is exactly that - where patience is a virtue in all respects and if not already a personal skill it is often learned.  

 

Manufacturers should be permitted a reasonable lead time between announcement ("We will produce this"), effectively a place-holder staking some claim to a particular model, and its arrival ("In Stock : More than 10").  It would be unfair to expect manufacturers in the competitive environment we currently have to be obliged to wait until a product was available in order to advertise it; this leaves the way open to duplication unless quiet commercial discussions and friendly handshakes occur behind the scenes.  Even then there are no guarantees of word being bond.  Duplication does no-one any favours in a market as relatively small as ours.

 

I accept there will sometimes be unavoidable complications which extend the lead time to well over the 12 - 24 month period.  Some manufacturers and commissioning retailers are good about supplying us with information when this happens and others choose to keep quiet.  There is no need here to re-chew the fat regarding certain models expected to arrive via west Cornwall but I offer that as an example of unexpected timeframe blow-outs beyond the control of at least one party involved.

 

If a manufacturer intends to offer a product they should have at least sufficient groundwork done before announcement that they are in a position to plan its progress from design to tooling to production.   This also has cost implications right along the supply chain.  If a 12 - 24 month lead time can be considered a standard then we could reasonably expect the budget for each project to also remain reasonably constant (major World events excluded) meaning an indicative price should be provided at announcement.  "£TBA" is unhelpful; retailers cannot advertise a price nor can prospective purchasers make informed decisions on whether to order at that time.  "Expected price £159" might be better though this could mislead especially if a model is significantly delayed and costs rise steeply.  Perhaps a case of damned if you do and damned if you don't.

 

 

[Wheatley]

I come from automotive where new models (1:1 scale!) are announced/unveiled at the major trade fairs Geneva (March) or Frankfurt/Paris (October) and are ready to drive out the showrooms 3 months later.

The difference being that automotive is a gazillion dollar market where manufacturers expect to compete with each other and can afford to have competing models in the same marketplace because the market is big enough to accommodate them. Also they seem to have come up with a tremendous wheeze of selling you a car where you end up not actually owning it at all, which can't be doing their profits any harm either.

 

Model railway manufacturers, on the other hand, might sell a thousand units at a profit of about twenty quid per unit. Bachmann are still trying to shift Standard 4MT 4-6-0s three years after they came to market because they inadvertently went head to head with Hornby on the same loco.

[Ozexpatriate]

I'm not sure what the meaning of the question is - do you mean how long do I expect it to take from experience, or how long I expect to wait ideally?

It's not meaningless; it asks you how long you expect to wait - not how quickly you would like it, nor does it ask how long you think it may actually take.

I think I understood what you meant Andy -

 

It's a bit like "England expects that every man will do his duty".

 

As worded I understand where the confusion came from.

 

It's a tricky word nicely illustrated by the title of the pregnancy book, "What to expect when you're expecting".

[TheSignalEngineer]

As one of my colleagues said when being harrassed by the boss as to where the final drawings for a project were "Do you want them now or do you want them right". The boss retorted "Both".

[DavidH]

It's not meaningless; it asks you how long you expect to wait - not how quickly you would like it, nor does it ask how long you think it may actually take. 

 

Expect: synonyms: suppose, presume, think it likely, believe ...

[Dunsignalling]

If Andy is (as I think he is) attempting to arrive at the what we want in future; "expect" was a bad word to use, though "How long should we expect..." would have been much better than "How long do you expect...".

 

Expectation of future performance is mainly derived from experience of previous performance. 

   

I expect new models from Hornby in 12-24 months from announcement because that's what they have done with the last several items I have bought. However much I might wish that others would conduct business in a similar timescale, experience gives me entirely different expectations.

 

Thus, there is no single answer to the question as worded, it changes depending on whose product I am waiting for.

 

To ascertain what we desire in future rather than the spectrum of timescales we "expect" from hindsight, it would be better to ask:

 

"What do you consider a reasonable interval between announcement and delivery of new models?"

 

John

[Mike Storey]

I love the aura of financial well being in which so many people live - apparently ascribing bottomless pockets to the manufacturers and commissioners.

 

'Let's leave it until you have an EP before announcing' - so that would mean at least 3 and possibly 4 radial tanks sitting well into (expensive) development before we get to know about them - who then faces big losses and has to pull the plug?

 

'Let's wait until all the research has been done, scans have been done, and CADS are finalised before announcing the model' - so someone spends £30,000 plus before finding out that a competitor has gone just a tiny bit further and will be competing with them.  Do these people know how long full research actually takes, do they know how much scanning actually costs or that you have to pay for CADs?

 

I much prefer early announcement because at least I know that someone is on the case and that one day the model is likely to appear - even if it will take time to get there.  Hornby and Bachmann can - at the moment afford to get their research and development in before announcing but as competition for the remaining 'commercial' models stiffens we will either see more duplication or folk backing a way from spending on late announcement (as Bachmann already seem to have done in some instances).  The situation I think is very simple - if we want choice then early announcement is likely to become even more prominent especially as costs rocket upwards where companies have to buy in work such as CADs from overseas.

 

I completely take your points Mike, but in reality, some manufacturers/commissioners manage very rapid arrival after announcement, such as SLW and Locomotion, and to a lesser extent Oxford, whom one would think could least afford the gamble, and the announcement to arrival date amongst the bigger companies varies wildly. Indeed, both Hornby and Bachmann (IIRC) have cancelled previously announced projects some years later. The deflection of competition is no guarantee either, vis the Class 71, rushed out magically quickly by Hornby long after DJM had announced his, although it appears Hornby had been working on their version for just as long, or longer, but without announcement.

 

So I guess it is the erratic nature of the timespan which frustrates many. Sure there will be delays to some models due to various difficulties, but for others there is no rationale. Take the 2HAP - very minor mods needed to one coach from the Hampshire unit and one from the EPB, yet it was not announced for some years and even now it has been, a strangely long lead time. This will be to do with production slots and whatever else. But it confuses and generates ill will.

 

So I guess I am arguing for more consistency within each manufacturer/commissioner (not across all, for each to have the same policy would be unrealistic). Bachmann says it is going to attempt to do this, as it has recognised the issue as detrimental. This poll can only help.

[The Stationmaster]

I completely take your points Mike, but in reality, some manufacturers/commissioners manage very rapid arrival after announcement, such as SLW and Locomotion, and to a lesser extent Oxford, whom one would think could least afford the gamble, and the announcement to arrival date amongst the bigger companies varies wildly. Indeed, both Hornby and Bachmann (IIRC) have cancelled previously announced projects some years later. The deflection of competition is no guarantee either, vis the Class 71, rushed out magically quickly by Hornby long after DJM had announced his, although it appears Hornby had been working on their version for just as long, or longer, but without announcement.

 

So I guess it is the erratic nature of the timespan which frustrates many. Sure there will be delays to some models due to various difficulties, but for others there is no rationale. Take the 2HAP - very minor mods needed to one coach from the Hampshire unit and one from the EPB, yet it was not announced for some years and even now it has been, a strangely long lead time. This will be to do with production slots and whatever else. But it confuses and generates ill will.

 

So I guess I am arguing for more consistency within each manufacturer/commissioner (not across all, for each to have the same policy would be unrealistic). Bachmann says it is going to attempt to do this, as it has recognised the issue as detrimental. This poll can only help.

 

The problem with any of it is the various imponderables and reliance on third parties.  I think once research is complete and CADs are finalised (and there can be quite a difference in time between the two) then things move fairly quickly.  BUT, and there will always be that but, it will always depend on finance availability and what the various third parties are prepared/able to do.  My understanding is that at present various Chinese factories are very hungry for model railway work and that hunger might potentially extend to 'revised financial arrangements'  (indeed there has been a tale that one UK company has already had such an arrangement - I don't know the truth of it and i doubt anyone will publicly confirm if such has happened).

 

But overall it is like everything else - it all depends on the availability of resources (people, information, opportunity for the various stages in the process) and the availability of finance to pay for each stage as it is invoiced.  And we increasingly need - I think - to recognise the latter.  And I think we also need to recognise that some people pay a lot more attention to getting things right at each stage than do others and that too introduces extra time ('delay' if that is the word you want to use).   If people want to risk all and remain profitable it is no doubt a very different business philosophy from working down to a price and accepting that things won't necessarily be right/accurate but you can still score because of low retail pricing.

 

I honestly doubt things will change and in fact I can certainly see Hornby becoming more cautious having been caught in various head-to-head competitive situations in recent times.  Interestingly 2017 looks like becoming a bumper year for releases (as opposed to announcements) and it will be interesting to see it that goes in a situation where prices are going to be some way from stable and probably beginning to leap above their pre-announced/pre-order level for wider economic reasons.  If that dents sales - on anybody's part but particularly where there is direct competition in models from two different manufacturers - then we might see further changes to the way announcements are made and development of new models is financed.

[Greenmodelmonkey]

Just be nice to look online find what I want and be able to purchase for next day. Failing that a One year max from point of announcement to going on sale and in stock. Not for a loco which was announced by a major manufacturer 5 years ago especially when many other locos which were not announced and have been produced in much shorter times.