RMweb Gold The Stationmaster Posted October 17, 2017 RMweb Gold Share Posted October 17, 2017 I agree with JJB above but would add that the real value the uk teams (should) add is the understanding / insight into what will sell And in what quantities. Obvs they’ve not always got that right... I think that is probably the most difficult area of all and I think you'll only stand half a chance (at most?) of getting it right if you're intimately in touch with a wide spectrum of the hobby. But having said that it's clear that original thinking on what models to produce can have spectacular results and lead to unexpected sell-outs if the thinking is right. The key then of course is being able to come up with those original ideas and having the backing to get them to production. Hornby clearly scored with the Peckett while Bachmann pressed the right buttons with the Wainwright C while Kernow did it with the Well Tank. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clearwater Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 I think that is probably the most difficult area of all and I think you'll only stand half a chance (at most?) of getting it right if you're intimately in touch with a wide spectrum of the hobby. But having said that it's clear that original thinking on what models to produce can have spectacular results and lead to unexpected sell-outs if the thinking is right. The key then of course is being able to come up with those original ideas and having the backing to get them to production. Hornby clearly scored with the Peckett while Bachmann pressed the right buttons with the Wainwright C while Kernow did it with the Well Tank. Yes. There’s a lot more to it than just picking the top 5 on the wish list poll. There also has to be a long term strategy. Personally I thought Hornby were smart to do the P2 a couple of years ago. Although late, one would expect them to make strong sales when 2007 is completed in the next couple of years. The flip side to picking winners will be the occasional flop... David 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium jjb1970 Posted October 17, 2017 RMweb Premium Share Posted October 17, 2017 Getting product choice right is a slippery old thing. A few years ago one of the worlds biggest large diesel engine manufacturers identified a gap in the market and after detailed analysis decided that there was an opportunity to develop a new engine to slip perfectly into that gap. They did the number crunching and demonstrated an awful lot of their engine sales were of a power output that forced customers to choose between an engine with a much bigger bore size than was ideal but with a low number of cylinders, or an engine with a smaller bore but too many cylinders. So they designed and introduced the perfect goldilocks engine for that market and promptly received zero orders. I mean literally zero orders, the only one ever built was a test engine. That is serious money thrown away. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Storey Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 I think that is probably the most difficult area of all and I think you'll only stand half a chance (at most?) of getting it right if you're intimately in touch with a wide spectrum of the hobby. But having said that it's clear that original thinking on what models to produce can have spectacular results and lead to unexpected sell-outs if the thinking is right. The key then of course is being able to come up with those original ideas and having the backing to get them to production. Hornby clearly scored with the Peckett while Bachmann pressed the right buttons with the Wainwright C while Kernow did it with the Well Tank. At the extreme risk of an onslaught of objection (but they haven't done this, that or the other yet), I would humbly suggest that there is some consensus that the vast majority of models likely to sell in large quantities, have now been done, to varying degrees of accuracy, quality and robustness. The Peckett proves there is a further market in industrials and smalls for plank layouts, which is a good bet in these constrained times. Someone got it right on that one. There are clearly gaps in regional and within regional coverage. But let's just say I have a point, for the sake of argument! You hit the final likely good sellers, as appears to be the mopping up exercise currently in progress, but then what do you do? Many have suggested prices are beginning to exceed the market's capacity to absorb them, and that the future must lie in cheaper models with fewer refinements, yet even the more expensive models, when well received, sell well. Others suggest that only incremental change, on re-issuing existing models to better fidelity, could generate a reasonably large replacement purchase market. There is evidence that this is true, with the Heljan Class 33 (that's a diseasel to those of you still addicted to the boiling of water) causing a seriously major dumping of Lima 33's on to Ebay and the "pre-owned" (what the fek happened to "second-hand"?) shelves of many retailers, although they still have their adherents. Yet again, there is the Sutton Locomotive Works / Rapido view of the world, whereby the future lies in super-detailed (even super sounded) models, and these also sell well at what initially seemed outrageous prices, but now don't seem that humungous at all. What is most worrying is the exponential rise in prices of rolling stock, particularly coaches, but also some wagons now, without the step-change improvements in detail on most. We had been used to paying loads more for Pullmans with working lights. But the step-change being achieved by some, such as Kernow's clay tanks, Bachmann's new Mark somethings and perhaps Rapido's new Brummie bus, show what can be done, and bottom lips dropped at the prices, but then you see other, far less blessed, mundane stock, now coming in at prices not that much below them. Look at Kernow's (ex-FTG) SPA's as an example. Lovely model, despite some (to my mind perfectly acceptable) faults, but still pretty basic, at over 30 sovs for a four wheeler. So Hornby, with or without Oxford, and Bachmann, and Dapol, and Heljan face a dilemma. Can Hornby really do a Piko and create three definitive quality grades of locomotive and rolling stock, and run those three types in parallel? If so, which locos and rolling stock go into which categories, or do we expect the same range across all three (or more) price ranges? What happens when your beloved drops into the low detail, mildly generic range, when my fave goes only into the fully-NASA compatible range, with gold-plated, working vacuum pipes, and I have to sell my house and mortgage the current Mrs Storey to pay for it? Have no doubt I would do this, but would you? So, there is a short term, gap filling answer, and it looks like they have struck gold right now. But I guess we need to help suggest what a long term answer looks like, given the competing pressures of reduced disposable income for many, the rabid demands for ultimate fidelity and functionality of the few on protected railway pensions or similar (and Pete Waterman and Rod Stewart of course), and the rest somewhere in between, plus the need to attract the Yoof into the hobby. Hornby Junior could be a great answer, once further developed, to make up for the loss of Ringo Starr on Thomas videos, but what do the panel think about the rest, in business terms, as opposed to our personal circumstances? 4 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steamport Southport Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 Bulleid Pacifics to the rescue? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/entertainment-arts-41648286/thomas-the-tank-engine-s-new-female-and-foreign-friends Jason Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium Coryton Posted October 17, 2017 RMweb Premium Share Posted October 17, 2017 Getting product choice right is a slippery old thing. A few years ago one of the worlds biggest large diesel engine manufacturers identified a gap in the market and after detailed analysis decided that there was an opportunity to develop a new engine to slip perfectly into that gap. They did the number crunching and demonstrated an awful lot of their engine sales were of a power output that forced customers to choose between an engine with a much bigger bore size than was ideal but with a low number of cylinders, or an engine with a smaller bore but too many cylinders. So they designed and introduced the perfect goldilocks engine for that market and promptly received zero orders. I mean literally zero orders, the only one ever built was a test engine. That is serious money thrown away. Indeed. Some years ago I put quite a bit of effort into improving a product that was just starting to sell. The next few years nobody wanted one. Now they are selling quite well. It's a funny world. 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
34theletterbetweenB&D Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 ...You hit the final likely good sellers, as appears to be the mopping up exercise currently in progress, but then what do you do?... Worry about that when you get there! The turbulence is such that any planning is likely to be disrupted by events. I have a feeling that there might be a genre or two to 'discover' yet. There's definitely some mileage in running some selected premium models for the 'golden glow' they throw over the rest of the range. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anglian Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 (edited) I think they are just beginning to tap into the pre-grouping market and the previously dormant interest in that era, or at the very least the preserved locomotives of that era. There are still an awful lot of locomotives they haven't made. Off the top of my head in a few seconds I can think of six Southern locos all of which would be strong sellers and I'm sure all of us can do the same for their favoured region or company. I don't see the wish lists and voting lists drying up any time soon. I'm actually hoping for another revolution in control – I'd really like to see on board batteries and radio control with wireless charging as an R-T-R feature. I can actually see it being an attractive option for the beginner and those like me, who would prefer not to have have to supply power through the track. Edited October 17, 2017 by Anglian 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Storey Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 Worry about that when you get there! The turbulence is such that any planning is likely to be disrupted by events. I have a feeling that there might be a genre or two to 'discover' yet. There's definitely some mileage in running some selected premium models for the 'golden glow' they throw over the rest of the range. I see your point, entirely. Indeed, that has turned out to be my entire philosophy on personal life. But then, I do not have to worry about two to three year lead times on new product development (make that five or more on several), Chinese factory capacity, the implications of macro economic changes or overall market fashion. About the only thing I have in common with Hornby is my concern over exchange rates. The Golden Glow is a marvellous brand pusher, but it proved insufficient for Fleischmann, LGB and a number of others. I would guess it is a more complex algorithm for a mass market operation. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Storey Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 I think they are just beginning to tap into the pre-grouping market and the previously dormant interest in that era, or at the very least the preserved locomotives of that era. There are still an awful lot of locomotives they haven't made. Off the top of my head in a few seconds I can think of six Southern locos all of which would be strong sellers and I'm sure all of us can do the same for their favoured region or company. I don't see the wish lists and voting lists drying up any time soon. I'm actually hoping for another revolution in control – I'd really like to see on board batteries and radio control with wireless charging as an R-T-R feature. I can actually see it being an attractive option for the beginner and those like me, who would prefer not to have have to supply power through the track. I think your last para is the sort of innovation that they may have to consider. There are several players now trying to prove the tech but they rely on a substantial proportion of confident, loco bashers, to insert their products. This could be a game changer, but needs substantial capital to make it mass market, plus further innovation to allow the advantages of DCC functionality, especially sound, lights and suchlike. One US outfit is heading there, but is still in the O gauge appeal stage, with HO/OO left to find ways to insert the kit and the batteries into tiny spaces, let alone the tech of remote charging. Purely for example, I have rejected that, having subscribed to its development for several years, believing I have to settle on something within the next year or so, when I eventually get around to my dreamed-of layout construction, so I have I invested heavily now in conventional DCC. But Hornby have to think beyond me, and my perception of my reducing, modelling lifespan, otherwise known as mortality. 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJS1977 Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 Something I was wondering recently - what about Hornby/Corgi producing a range of budget 4mm R/C road vehicles (plastic bodied buses/lorries). It's certainly possible to produce R/C vehicles about that size for around the £10 mark - the issue would be making them run slowly enough to steer effectively in the confined spaces of a layout. But if it could be done, it could fit into a number of markets: 1) Children who don't have an interest in trains at all but might have an interest in R/C vehicles. 2) As an add-on to train sets (or even sold with them - Thomas the Tank with R/C Bertie the Bus!, or something like the old Lima Freightliner sets with a working container lorry. 3) As a basis for more serious modellers to detail or to put other bodies on for use on their own layouts. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
frobisher Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 Something I was wondering recently - what about Hornby/Corgi producing a range of budget 4mm R/C road vehicles (plastic bodied buses/lorries). It's certainly possible to produce R/C vehicles about that size for around the £10 mark - the issue would be making them run slowly enough to steer effectively in the confined spaces of a layout. That immediately precludes your market number 1, and probably number 2 and unless you provided a way for these to follow pre-programmed routes etc, market 3 wouldn't have a great desire for them either. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium Mike Bellamy Posted October 18, 2017 RMweb Premium Share Posted October 18, 2017 (edited) To try and get this back on topic about the actual appoinment of a new CEO at Hornby, I'm surprised no one has commented here about the first announcement about their future plans as shown here - described as a 'Strategic Move' Also the Interim Chairman is leaving - only appointed in June . . . http://www.rmweb.co.uk/community/index.php?/topic/127262-Hornby-discounts/?p=2891278 EDIT. the formal announcement to the Stock Exchange is detailed in yet another Hornby topic on their financial future http://www.rmweb.co.uk/community/index.php?/topic/108082-hornbys-financial-updates-to-the-stock-market/?p=2890614 . Edited October 18, 2017 by Mike Bellamy Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium jjb1970 Posted October 18, 2017 RMweb Premium Share Posted October 18, 2017 Worry about that when you get there! The turbulence is such that any planning is likely to be disrupted by events. I have a feeling that there might be a genre or two to 'discover' yet. There's definitely some mileage in running some selected premium models for the 'golden glow' they throw over the rest of the range. The idea of halo products is quite widely applied and seems to work well in other sectors. I suspect most here would find the idea of £2000 Sony headphones and a £1600 headphone amp bizarre verging on objectionable, but Sony have always had a halo range of very high end products to demonstrate their technical capabilities and to boost their image in the hi-fi enthusiast market. If looking at model trains, Broadway Limited Imports had their brass models, not just the brass hybrid range but they also made full brass models to compete with offerings from the small brass importers. The Dapol Black range is an example of a UK model train company following that path, it'd be interesting to know if their A4 was successful enough to make them continue that idea. People say nobody needs these halo products, and they are absolutely correct but it is also true that nobody needs a model train. These are all discretionary purchases and halo products do seem to work well for many companies. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
34theletterbetweenB&D Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 I'm actually hoping for another revolution in control – I'd really like to see on board batteries and radio control with wireless charging as an R-T-R feature. I can actually see it being an attractive option for the beginner and those like me, who would prefer not to have to supply power through the track. OK, not really about the CEO at all, but where there is a product opportunity, though probably not for Hornby. The development of control of the locos by some sort of wireless system and on-board power is well underway. That will continue until someone gets it right enough for general adoption, much in the way that DCC emerged. Hornby will need to maintain awareness, and not go 'their own flavour' this time please. But these trains will still require track, and in particular the rather less than plug and play points: some sort of integrated control that 'just works' for the mechanical movement on the point, and relatively easily 'assembles itself as a network' in a software application for control purposes is a product package that might sell. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJS1977 Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 That immediately precludes your market number 1, and probably number 2 and unless you provided a way for these to follow pre-programmed routes etc, market 3 wouldn't have a great desire for them either. As far as market No 3's concerned - there are a number of layouts featuring home-built RC lorries in a variety of scales, I don't think following pre-programmed routes is a pre-requisite. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
autocoach Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 Bulleid Pacifics to the rescue? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/entertainment-arts-41648286/thomas-the-tank-engine-s-new-female-and-foreign-friends Jason Men of Malachite Alert must go out! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horsetan Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 Meanwhile, the new CEO brings his influence to bear.... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Dunsignalling Posted October 18, 2017 RMweb Gold Share Posted October 18, 2017 Bulleid Pacifics to the rescue? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/entertainment-arts-41648286/thomas-the-tank-engine-s-new-female-and-foreign-friends Jason That'll presumably be the engine that "can". Hat. Coat. Gone. John Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold The Stationmaster Posted October 19, 2017 RMweb Gold Share Posted October 19, 2017 Meanwhile, the new CEO brings his influence to bear.... image.jpg Back to the discounting or not theme. I think what we can say goodbye to are the fire sales we saw last year - which is no bad thing for the major part of the retail trade. Maybe we might see a Bachmann like approach of stock clearance with far less deep discounts and available to all retailers instead of those prepared or able to buy in bulk? But we might not - we simply don't know yet. The other thing the announcement does, I hope, is send the strong message to the retail trade that some of its members on here have already mentioned, and that is good for all of us - retailers and end customers alike. But the other message must be to the deep discounters in the model railway business warning them that their business model which seems lately to have included selling at a loss in one case(?) that you can forget it for the future, any assumption of being able to buy in very cheap if you can do so in bulk has had its day. We await further announcements of any policy changes with considerable interest, but please don't mess around with programmes for the next couple of years! 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horsetan Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 (edited) ..... the strong message to the retail trade that some of its members on here have already mentioned, and that is good for all of us - retailers and end customers alike. But the other message must be to the deep discounters in the model railway business warning them that their business model which seems lately to have included selling at a loss in one case(?) that you can forget it for the future, any assumption of being able to buy in very cheap if you can do so in bulk has had its day.... That'll probably put an end to the "Bargain Hunters" thread, then! However, the terminally-stingy will always find some alternative way of getting something for as close to nothing as possible..... Edited October 19, 2017 by Horsetan 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black 5 Bear Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 (edited) That'll probably put an end to the "Bargain Hunters" thread, then! However, the terminally-stingy will always find some alternative way of getting something for as close to nothing as possible.....Or which has been admitted to by one retailer at least, Hornby have some items in their range that are vastly overpriced.Are model railways different from any other product where a discount is both available and expected ? Edited October 19, 2017 by Black 5 Bear Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trains4U Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Here's an idea - and this rejuvinated the car market. How about a scrappage scheme? Bring in your old loco, and you get £20 off a new Hornby loco, with the old model recycled, never to enter the second-hand food chain. There would be old runways up and down the country littered with lima 37s and Mainline Royal scots... and no doubt a few pristine wrenn and dublo locos - headed to the landfill in the sky (if that even makes sense) 4 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horsetan Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 ....How about a scrappage scheme? Bring in your old loco, and you get £20 off a new Hornby loco, with the old model recycled, never to enter the second-hand food chain.... That would work quite well if the "scrapped" models were then recycled into individual spare parts and made available to, er, owners of classics..... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Saunders Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 That would work quite well if the "scrapped" models were then recycled into individual spare parts and made available to, er, owners of classics..... That's what ebay is for with the parts worth more than the whole, same as cars! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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