Hornby 2018 Announcements

[olivegreen]

And some will complain about people complaining.

 

Sorry - couldn’t resist.

 

Roy

 

I resemble that remark.

 

OK, guilty as charged. (Among others, of course….!)

 

Mike

Edited December 19, 2017 by olivegreen

[Pandora]

On a Scottish theme, something like Highland Railway 103 could be a good seller. Pre grouping (not sure how modified the loco is relative to original condition),preserved, pretty livery, ran on main line in transition era. Don’t know why, but this loco has a Bachmann rather than Hornby feel to me.

I believe TriAng Hornby tackled the HR Jones goods 103 more than 20 years ago,  but did not proceed beyond a test mock up.  I agree that it may be one for Bachmann rather than Hornby.

[Legend]

I think you are getting confused with the J36. I’ve got all Pat Hammonds books , which shows the J36 proposed for introduction in 1980, but no mention of HR 103.

[NIK]

Haven’t a few HAPs been cobbled together from EPBs and 205s by some modellers? I don’t recall an issue being raised or visible.

 

Roy

 

Hi,

 

Maybe Bachmann UK have their own internal standards.

 

Also if the two bodies aren't quite matched in profile dimensions including internal dims would they be able to use the same jigs and ink/paint reservoirs for tampo printing?.

 

Would both body mouldings be compatible with Bachmann's future assembly methods.

 

If the body moulds have to be modified to suit the latest common features (lighting, sound, wiring, assembly, conduit, roof ventilators, roof seams etc.) then the hand crafted CAD vs the Laser Scanned CAD may cause problems.

 

 

Regards

 

Nick

[jjb1970]

I think that the relative decline of the hobby is having the counterintuitive effect of making models of obscure or less popular prototypes increasingly attractive. Previously tooling was intended to last many years and to be used regularly in production runs out several thousand. In that case you need popular or very common prototype software. However if you're going to fully amortise costs over a run of a few hundred up to a couple of thousand pieces then almost anything is possible.

[Legend]

I’m not sure that is related to decline of hobby or more to do with the set up of Chinese manufacturing through various facilitating bodies here, Kernow, Hattons etc . This has really opened up the hobby to the detriment of what we’re once special companies ie Hornby and Bachmann.

 

Really there is no difference now between Hornby, Kernow and Hattons, except that the latter two have a retail arm, which of course Hornby would like to have had with its direct sales channel. Bachmann and maybe Oxford are a little different in having their own production facilities, although in Bachmann case Kader is obviously a big concern, whereas Oxford has probably a manufacturing site more aligned with its needs.

[jjb1970]

I don't think it helps Hornby that they're carrying the overheads of a bigger company and also competing with much leaner rivals who are using crowdfunding and pre-ordering to de-risk and manage cash flow. That may be the way of the future, it has very obvious benefits for producers and if it delivers what consumers want then it is just evolution of the hobby.

[woodenhead]

In the other thread someone found the original painting that appears partially obscured on the 2018 catalogue front cover and it's a Lord Nelson.

 

Could be a sneaky curveball of course...

Yep, everyone is thinking Lord Nelson and Hornby are planning Colonel Stephens

[The Stationmaster]

Whilst I don’t doubt your logic around geographical spread etc, I don’t think you can always apply it to what would be a marquee style loco “I’ve got to have one” “I know it’s not my region” etc etc.

 

You could make the same argument about the kernow/Heljan 1361/5 class. Or DoG. or P2 (which lasted in the form modelled for a very small number of years) - There are numerous examples where a careful analysis of what period people model etc doesn’t always hold true. Key is can someone sell 5,000 of them to make a profit.

 

A tie in with a museum, an iconic loco, one that’s run in preservation, significant appeal to the collector market and in the transition period (I think you can see 103 in RailwayRoundabout?” strikes me a case can be made.

 

Maybe 103 or maybe something else. I agree unlikely to be able to guess specifically which loco is chosen however I was trying to identify a thought process that leads you to pick something that isn’t top ten on the wish list poll.

 

I think you are pretty close to finding the magic bullet.  

 

Judging by a number of examples which have quickly vanished from the shelves what is going to sell well is likely to be left field, pretty and or quirky, and certainly something which appeared in any particular livery (or in total built) in small numbers.  I suspect that the company of origin plus original area of prototype operation is likely to be an irrelevant factor to the vast majority of those who purchase such models (how many models have we seen so far of a certain Reading biscuit factory for example?).  So overall I reckon 'Aerolite' would probably be a better economic manufacturing proposition than quite a number of plain liveried Pre-Group 0-6-0s, 'Lord Of The Isles' (a good one that is) would probably outsell 'Kings', and a decent North Eastern atlantic in original condition/livery would outsell certain far more profligate LNER classes, while the real money spinner in Brighton atlantics will be one in Pre-Group livery.

 

Strange old world isn't it?

[wombatofludham]

Anyone got proof of a "relative decline" in the hobby? I only ask as most of the modellers I meet are newbies returning to the hobby or starting anew on reaching the point that their offspring have left, or they have more disposable income by giving up on nights out on the lash.

 

I've even met two under-20s whose primary interest is pre nationalisation steam although I doubt that's enough to make up for the loss of the kettleistas over the next few years and you shuffle off this mortal coil.

 

Seriously though I'd like to see some evidence of waning interest in railways and model railways as last time I went through Stafford there were a lot of youngsters on the platform watching the trains go by who, once they've hatched and matched any future offspring will probably like to have a model railway of their own.

[adb968008]

I don't think it helps Hornby that they're carrying the overheads of a bigger company and also competing with much leaner rivals who are using crowdfunding and pre-ordering to de-risk and manage cash flow. That may be the way of the future, it has very obvious benefits for producers and if it delivers what consumers want then it is just evolution of the hobby.

Can you imagine the wider toy markets, media and retail markets reaction if Hornby went for a crowdfunded model ?

I can’t imagine many model shops pre-ordering prepaid Hornby models.

 

Hornby is the high street brand, take it out of the high street and making it prepaid, is like Cadbury removing itself from the shelves and requesting pre-paid Easter eggs direct off the public.

 

Hornby needs to shape itself to serve the high street model, but it’s focus should be back to its core bread and butter, which I doubt is locos, which is a headline grabber.

Price shouldn’t be an issue, the market is healthy and accepting higher prices, the focus should be on assembly cost.

the New £40 Mk1 can be fully assembled in less than 2 minutes without any tools required.. it’s predeccessor takes nearly 5 mins with tools needed... i’d imagine that makes the New Mk1 quite profitable, just on labour alone.

 

IMHO they’d be more profitable sitting back on new locos, especially anything that’s a re-tool of something made since 1990, and focus on the line side, scenery etc, and easy to assemble but better painted/detailed wagons and coaches until and if, the economic outlook improves.

 

Locos are a luxury, but there’s market gaps and readiness for decent new Wagons, coaches and also things like platform accessories, decent new semaphore signals to.

Edited December 19, 2017 by adb968008

[locoholic]

 

... certain far more profligate LNER classes....

The most profligate LNER class must have been the B17s - all those football clubs waste tons of money on expensive foreign players!

 

The most prolific LNER classes are another matter entirely...

 

But then, I would love Hornby to make a RTR Ivor the Engine!

[Seanem44]

Anyone got proof of a "relative decline" in the hobby? I only ask as most of the modellers I meet are newbies returning to the hobby or starting anew on reaching the point that their offspring have left, or they have more disposable income by giving up on nights out on the lash.

 

I've even met two under-20s whose primary interest is pre nationalisation steam although I doubt that's enough to make up for the loss of the kettleistas over the next few years and you shuffle off this mortal coil.

 

Seriously though I'd like to see some evidence of waning interest in railways and model railways as last time I went through Stafford there were a lot of youngsters on the platform watching the trains go by who, once they've hatched and matched any future offspring will probably like to have a model railway of their own.

Overall?  I can't answer that.  I can merely provide personal experiences and analysis.  I went to the Greenburg train show in Chantilly, VA at the Dulles Expo Center.  Three years ago it filled the entire expo center.  The past two, they cut the size in half. Half the vendors weren't even selling model rail items.

 

Does this prove a decline?  No, not in of its own.  It does prove that it is getting harder for retailers to compete with online stores.

 

As for the individuals present...  that's another issue.  Middle age with kids.  They were there to look at the layouts. 

 

I'm 36 and find it hard to get even begin the layout I want to build.  This is a time intensive hobby.  For my age, that is a luxury I don't have.

 

I would not say the hobby is in decline, but I have seen enough the past two decades to surmise that it is at least waning a bit.

Edited December 19, 2017 by Seanem44

[rovex]

But then, I would love Hornby to make a RTR Ivor the Engine!

Can't see it myself. Only one engine in the class and only one possible livery. Lol

[jjb1970]

Can you imagine the wider toy markets, media and retail markets reaction if Hornby went for a crowdfunded model ?

I can’t imagine many model shops pre-ordering prepaid Hornby models.

 

Hornby is the high street brand, take it out of the high street and making it prepaid, is like Cadbury removing itself from the shelves and requesting pre-paid Easter eggs direct off the public.

 

Hornby needs to shape itself to serve the high street model, but it’s focus should be back to its core bread and butter, which I doubt is locos, which is a headline grabber.

Price shouldn’t be an issue, the market is healthy and accepting higher prices, the focus should be on assembly cost.

the New £40 Mk1 can be fully assembled in less than 2 minutes without any tools required.. it’s predeccessor takes nearly 5 mins with tools needed... i’d imagine that makes the New Mk1 quite profitable, just on labour alone.

 

IMHO they’d be more profitable sitting back on new locos, especially anything that’s a re-tool of something made since 1990, and focus on the line side, scenery etc, and easy to assemble but better painted/detailed wagons and coaches until and if, the economic outlook improves.

 

Locos are a luxury, but there’s market gaps and readiness for decent new Wagons, coaches and also things like platform accessories, decent new semaphore signals to.

Tooling wagons and coaches isn't a cheap option and people seem more reluctant to accept high prices for non-loco items. The fact that the new entrants are very locomotive focused is quite telling. When Hornby tried to row back on detail to control costs it wasn't well received. Personally I still think the problem with design clever was as much about poor execution as a fundamental problem with the underlying concept but the failure of design clever has probably poisoned that well.

Locomotive models have a cross appeal to both modellers and collectors, many modellers like to decry collecting but I suspect that the collector market makes a crucial difference to the viability of many locomotive releases. The indicators seem to point to a smaller hobby but one willing to accept higher prices for higher quality models.

On business models, Hornby, Bachmann and Dapol carry their own risks, finance their own models and support a retailer distribution network. That all comes with a cost and they face increasing competition in the key locomotive segment from rivals free from some of those costs. That means they have higher costs and they don't have the luxury of transferring cash flow management and risk to consumers in the way crowd funders do. The pre-order approach is less differentiated but it still de-risks significantly and charging deposits eases cash flow to some degree. Given that some of these new sources are the very retailers people want companies like Hornby to support it puts them in the unenviable position of carrying higher costs to help their competition. I think the hobby still needs companies like Hornby but I am not sure how they can survive in their current format. I suspect that at some point they will reconsider a move to direct sales to reduce costs, probably linked to manufacturing to pre-order.

[phil gollin]

Can't see it myself. Only one engine in the class and only one possible livery. Lol

.

 

Two !

 

Black and white version, and one in colour !

 

.

[Dunsignalling]

Such is life at the moment, manufacturers of all products seem to be incrementally brexit price increasing, but also reducing the size of the product...

200g Dairy Milk it is no longer, Toblerone now has 1 less chunk....Even the advent calendar now stops a day early.

 

perhaps Hornby will join this trend and reduce the size of models to HO ? 

Or follow the practice of  old Hornby tinplate and make Pacifics into Atlantics?

[adb968008]

Tooling wagons and coaches isn't a cheap option and people seem more reluctant to accept high prices for non-loco items. The fact that the new entrants are very locomotive focused is quite telling. When Hornby tried to row back on detail to control costs it wasn't well received. Personally I still think the problem with design clever was as much about poor execution as a fundamental problem with the underlying concept but the failure of design clever has probably poisoned that well.

Locomotive models have a cross appeal to both modellers and collectors, many modellers like to decry collecting but I suspect that the collector market makes a crucial difference to the viability of many locomotive releases. The indicators seem to point to a smaller hobby but one willing to accept higher prices for higher quality models.

On business models, Hornby, Bachmann and Dapol carry their own risks, finance their own models and support a retailer distribution network. That all comes with a cost and they face increasing competition in the key locomotive segment from rivals free from some of those costs. That means they have higher costs and they don't have the luxury of transferring cash flow management and risk to consumers in the way crowd funders do. The pre-order approach is less differentiated but it still de-risks significantly and charging deposits eases cash flow to some degree. Given that some of these new sources are the very retailers people want companies like Hornby to support it puts them in the unenviable position of carrying higher costs to help their competition. I think the hobby still needs companies like Hornby but I am not sure how they can survive in their current format. I suspect that at some point they will reconsider a move to direct sales to reduce costs, probably linked to manufacturing to pre-order.

Hornby does pre-order already, come Jan 8th, thru the month end Hornby will make most of its annual business in pre-orders from shops up and down the country, every year as it has done for decades.

This is Hornbys backbone, indeed two years ago, when the Direct sales (and the special offer dumping) model undermined the retail network, there was a backlash from the retailers in reduced pre-orders, that prompted a stock market warning and cost a CEO his job.

http://www.cityam.com/234279/toymaker-hornbys-shares-go-off-the-rails-after-latest-profit-warning-

 

Asking the same retailers, who have just been told that there models now come with a warranty expiration date of two years from distribution, on top of some more price rises, to now cough up, up to a year in advance of delivery, would probably cause a repeat of this, indeed I suspect they are expecting this in Jan 2018, and it to be a tough year, given the recent distribution of the new funding arrangements in place in advance.

 

 

For example..

 

R3452 Llanfair Grange, was announced in 2016, and was presumably a victim of the reduced pre-orders, it carried an RRP I believe of £130, it’s now not due until 2018 and has an RRP of £169.. now how does a retailer feel, having let’s say ordering and pre-paying for say 5 of these in Jan 2016 feel about waiting 2 years and footing a difference bill of another £40 each, and feels less confident about selling 5 at a higher price they might now want 3 ?, indeed even in today’s current pre-order model, without pre-paying I suspect they may reduce their pre-orders in this.

 

I note the example of R3452 as I pre-ordered it in Jan 2016, at £120, but later I felt it was too expensive and cancelled, (I have 3, cheapest was £40, most expensive £100), since then I’ve seen it creep past £135 and now £150 discounted, I’ve still not returned to pre-ordering it as it’s too far off my value radar and unlikely to return.. maybe i’m Not the only one thinking like this ?, perhaps that’s why it’s 2 years late ?

 

Now ask Asda to pay up front for 500 train-sets a year in advance in the same conditions as see how fast that sales guy gets bounced out of the door ?

 

That’s why I can’t see pre-pay working in advance for the larger players, they deal in volume and need to shift it. Right now I think the new ceo is balancing cost / qty to supply and looking for maximum efficiency in assembly of these models to support the existing model, as changing the model could destroy the company.

Edited December 19, 2017 by adb968008

[Ron Ron Ron]

Can you imagine the wider toy markets, media and retail markets reaction if .......

 

.....Hornby is the high street brand, take it out of the high street ......

 

I wonder which High St. Hornby still has a presence in?

The brand has largely gone from from there.

 

Toy shops have largely disappeared from the traditional High St.

Even most model shops, if they stock the toy oriented items, are much rarer in prominent High St. locations. Those that are left that is.

Some have moved, or have been established in industrial type units, where adequate floor space can be leased at more affordable rents.

Usually these are well out of sight from casual shoppers.

 

Those Toy outlets that still survive, are dominated by the big chains.

Toys-R-Us  stock hardly anything of the Hornby train variety and are often out of stock of the few items what they do carry (...and how long will they be around?).

Other large chains, Smythes and the Entertainer don't stock this type of toy.

Hornby pulled out of most of its retail concessions too.

 

Argos have a few train-sets in their catalogue, but look at their web site.

The drop down menus and search lists don't mention toy trains at all and you can't see the Hornby brand name anywhere, unless you use the Search function and actually type "Hornby" in.

 

So it does leave one wondering what relevance this so called "iconic brand" really has in the modern day toy market?

Only Hornby will have the data on how well they are doing in that particular market sector.

 

 

 

.

[coachmann]

I would think Hornby is as timeless as Hoover, Kelloggs, Kodak and Woolworths whether on the high street or not.

[jjb1970]

I think the toy train set market is now probably more of a niche than the enthusiast model segment. If there was much of a demand for them you'd reasonably expect the likes of Toys R Us, Smythes etc to stock them (well, while Toys R Us are still with us) but where I do see train sets stocked it is very much a token gesture and with no additional accessories. Another indicator is Hobbycraft, people may laugh but the Hobbycraft branch near me is a very decent model shop for plastic kits, paint, adhesives, scenic, tools etc but it stocks a token selection of entry level train sets at Christmas. And that is a shop which clearly does see some value in serving modellers, just not model trains. The days when model shops were a feature of the high street in most towns of any size are long gone and I can't see them returning. I grew up in a small city and remember at least three dedicated model shops (one of which was effectively a model train shop, one of which was probably 50/50 trains and plastic kit shop and one which was basically a plastic kit shop with a little bit of railway stuff), two toy shops which carried a good range of model train stuff (to the point they were probably better than some model shops of today) and a department store that carried a reasonable range of trains and plastic kits. Now there aren't many large conurbations that can claim the same. Whether it is right or wrong there are now large areas of the country where modellers have a choice of either using on-line stores (or mail order) or waiting until they can make a trip to visit shops in another part of the country. And in all honesty, is that really a bad thing? The term "box shifter" generally has a negative association yet the big on-line retailers (most of which also have a physical shop anyway) offer a great range of products, excellent service and competitive prices, I've arrived at a point where I'm quite happy just using on-line ordering.

[60027Merlin]

For a pre-grouping model to give a good commercial return to the manufacturer the loco in question would have to have survived well into B. R. days at least until 1960 and to cover as wide an area of operation as possible. Being preserved is also attractive to the manufacturer to widen the market therefore in Scottish terms there are 6 classes realistically to choose from.

 

That results in certain Caley and North British classes as the only commercial options.

 

Quite easy to work the classes out!

[Legend]

Yep bottom line is whether we like it or not Hornby is not on the High Street. It has to compete with new entrants like Kernow and Hattons that havemuch lower costs. It needs to streamline its organisation. At the moment it needs its retailers but also has to maintain a direct channel to market. It must be considering how long the independent retail market can continue . It therefore needs to make contingency plans to go direct but without alienating its existing market.

 

I hate crowdfunding and pre ordering, but there is no doubt the market has changed. I remember a time when there were 4 model shops in Glasgow and John Menzies in Buchanan Street (now the Nike shop demonstrating changing retail) stocked the full range of Hornby . Now there is only Hamleys selling limited stock at full price and I wonder how long that can continue as I never see anyone buy anything. It’s a bit like model zone was- nothing on the shelves actually moved. So the market has already changed. Hornby need to change too or it will go to the wall.

Edited December 19, 2017 by Legend

[ezza]

Hornby seem to concentrate on groups of models. The GE section has B12, D16, J15, B17 plus B1, K1, L1, O1. They have started on the NE section with the Q6, plus the LNER standard types. About time therefore they followed up with a J27 or B16/1 or G5. What I would really like however is a GC A5, although Bachmann seem to have adopted the GC.

 Totally agree on A5 in GC livery top of my wishlist.

Roger

[Vistisen]

Yep bottom line is whether we like it or not Hornby is not on the High Street. It has to compete with new entrants like Kernow and Hattons that havemuch lower costs. It needs to streamline its organisation. At the moment it needs its retailers but also has to maintain a direct channel to market. It must be considering how long the independent retail market can continue . It therefore needs to make contingency plans to go direct but without alienating its existing market.

 

I hate crowdfunding and pre ordering, but there is no doubt the market has changed. I remember a time when there were 4 model shops in Glasgow and John Menzies in Buchanan Street (now the Nike shop demonstrating changing retail) stocked the full range of Hornby . Now there is only Hamleys selling limited stock at full price and I wonder how long that can continue as I never see anyone buy anything. It’s a bit like model zone was- nothing on the shelves actually moved. So the market has already changed. Hornby need to change too or it will go to the wall.

 

But when they sell direct, every one gets hot under the collar about them not supporting local shops ( before we all go off and browse the special offer sections of Hattons)