RTR North Eastern Railway Locomotives - A discussion.

[The Black Hat]

Hello all,

A return to some analysis following the 2018 wish list poll. Personally, I think the poll does show that trends highlighted before have been continuing, albeit, interestingly that some more of the oddities in the Eastern Region get thrown up.

 

This matters greatly because those wanting NER models that would be the ones that are more likely to generate repeat purchases over time, are having to compete on a business case over ones that can be made as a one off single purchase. So, this first return to posting will focus on everyone’s favourites - Locomotives.

 

Since the last poll, a number of releases have altered the dynamics of the voting patterns. Plans for the G5 have seen the NER vote decrease. This is common after a release is announced as a popular engine is done and takes a way a block of votes that was previously there prominently. The GE section also sees a decrease in votes, after the re-tool of the B12/3.

 

A graph showing engine choices for comparison is below;

 

 

Both the GE and NER are the main areas that are forming blocks of voting patterns and thus sales intent. Interestingly many of the subjects show a decrease in numbers during the 2018 poll. While some engines have increased share, such as the D16/3 and the B16/3 is a new entry, a great many see votes fall. Thankfully, this is across the Eastern region as a whole. Other engines not shown on the graph also record a similar trend, one of the others being group standard K4.

However, these numbers still back up the relative trend across the years that puts these choices on firm commercial ground for selection. Engines that stop short have been selected, with G5 and J36 being chosen. Yet, other engines still poll higher. Two other engines from other regions have been selected to get a decent comparison for voting interest, these being E4 and K2, but again these show a drop in votes. It shows that across the whole Eastern region a drop in votes was recorded for many types, but I don’t believe this to be an indication of any decline in popularity for the area, given layouts and sales of models released show signs of strength – ie absence of many engines, such as Q6 often in bargain areas, compared to other regions choices.

 

Instead, group standard designs have again increased in strength, but many of these are now into novelty territory, for something different, being the LNER P2/2 or the W1 ‘Hush Hush’. I think a massive push for this to finish the Gresley large engine stable, of ones that could be seen, hence why the Thompson A2 machines poll much lower. This isn’t the time or place to debate the Gresley vs Thompson debate, but it would appear most support the often quoted, but simple view of the formers preference and thus want to complete the collection in model form. Thanks to the production of Duke of Gloucester a prototype now is very much an option to be considered viable, but if the Hornby P2/1 was anything to judge then its possible to make the chassis for both options with the possibility of announcing the second one later after the demand of the first is satisfied. So, will be see a P2/2 soon – I expect so.

 

The ability to combine options for production, as one expects is the case, can mean voting numbers can be combined. While W1 in original form comes to 274 votes, the second rebuild also polls at 177, giving a combination of 451 votes. This would put it to the top if you were looking for joint options, as some engines still get grouped for selection. Other options would be the B16, which now split between three options in the poll, scores at 125, 131 and 150 across the variants – a combined score of 406, although you expect that demand for this would be lower if you grouped the options together, it would still show massive demand for a model covering all three options. Finally the other for the NER would be the J21/25 which would share the same chassis given the miniscule differences when scaled down, but could allow for different bodies that are adapted to fit. This combined option polls at 263 votes or 27^th overall in the top table.

 

So on the whole NER votes are standing up well, given the shift to prototypes and strength of group standards still manages to get votes from across the whole region.

More soon on the difference between the various grouping areas and regional vote share.

 

 

 

More soon on the difference between the various grouping areas and regional vote share.

Edited November 14, 2018 by The Black Hat

[BMacdermott]

Hello David

 

Thanks for posting the above. The Poll Team never 'analyses' the Results - we simply report them. In that respect, we place as much if not more store by the relative positions of items over the years. I have attached the LNER Locos Comparison Table PDF so that readers can get a clear overview of how North Eastern Railway types fare against the others in the category.

 

We indicate 'new' items by an asterisk (*). We split some locos up this year by request - they are not treated as new, but rather an amendment. 

 

Four LNER Locos were announced since the 2016 Results and they have been deleted. Six all-new LNER Locos were added this year (as well as the splits above). Overall 39 items came out of The Poll and 92 went in. Although the B16/2 was split from B16/3, they ended up just six votes apart. That result is 'relative' to earlier years.

 

Brian (on behalf of The 00 Poll Team)

4. Comparison Table LNER Locos (2013-2018).pdf

[Compound2632]

You report numbers of votes cast. For a reliable comparison with previous years, should the data not be normalised to the number of poll participants?

[The Black Hat]

Possibly but the other way is that each shows the number of votes cast per year for each locomotive type, regardless of how many people take part. Therefor you can still track the number of votes cast. If more people are voting theres equally the chance that they can vote for something else, so I think the data still can be used. If someone wanted to do this for a more reliable comparison as a % of votes cast then they can. The next data I am working on is just the 2018 results. 

 

Got to love one of the usual Southern Brigade Trolls on the forum who marked it as funny... 

[DougN]

Incredibly interesting reading the table about what polls highly vs consistently. Looking at the poll 5 years ago the top 4 have now been released. The Hush Hush has varied but consistently polls highly except for one year where it well and truely droped out, the same can be said for the sentinel rail car. The interesting one for people of the NER bent is the J26/27 with positions 6,5,1, 3 and 4. 

 

The J69 family is a little more randomly of 13,7 2 4 and 6 spaced. 

 

I look at the top 20 being quite a "possible" in the next 5 to 10 years. The new manufacturing technology seems to be allowing the products for the manufacturers to produce things on a semi limited run. They deliver to the market for a short period of say 4 to 5 years and then remove from the catalog for a period until the latent demand rises again. I have to agree with this from both their perspective and ours, we get the models for a period and have to buy during the short term.  

[BMacdermott]

You report numbers of votes cast. For a reliable comparison with previous years, should the data not be normalised to the number of poll participants?

Hello Compound2632

 

The Comparison Tables we produce go some way towards that (see my post #427).

 

Brian (on behalf of The 00 Poll Team)

[phil gollin]

 

.........    Got to love one of the usual Southern Brigade Trolls on the forum who marked it as funny... 

.

 

That was me NOT being a troll.

 

I was laughing at your feeble attempt to "big up" the support by ADDING the votes for two different locos together to claim that double the number of people supported the (L)NER, ignoring the fact that almost all of the votes were from the same people.

 

IF you don't think it as funny, then I worry about your sense of proportion.

 

( P.S.  Why this is on a Hornby thread rather than the Poll Thread ? )

 

.

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

I found my voting differed from past inputs. While the selection of RTR locos for my Southern end of the ECML modelling isn't 'perfect', between Hornby's decade long surge of LNE designs, and inputs from other manufacturers - with an N7 and revised V2 to come - I am in a place unimaginable just 20 years ago when I started buying OO again. What went roaring past on the main line is decently covered, enabling a good representation of the lineside experience.

 

The most significant of the 'small black locos' required that are not available RTR are either building or on the way to being so. As a result my voting focussed on rolling stock in which more representation of the enormous diversity will always be welcome.

 

You report numbers of votes cast. For a reliable comparison with previous years, should the data not be normalised to the number of poll participants?

Unless I am sorely mistaken the participation has been circa 2,500 for the three most recent polls. What with the participants also being self selecting -  so no claim to representative sampling may be entertained - the effect of 'normalisation' would be insignificant compared to the uncertainties that surround a poll of this type. Or in other words, just go with the number of votes.

 

,,, Why this is on a Hornby thread rather than the Poll Thread ?

Because it was started here, well before the 2018 poll results were available.

 

If the thread originator sees fit, it would be sensible to ask the mods if it can be relocated to 'Model musings etc.' as it is not manufacturer specific.

[sem34090]

In answer to Phil as the OP of this thread, it was started here ages ago because at the time Hornby had set the precedent for NER locos. Perhaps now the topic would be better elsewhere? Mods?

[The Black Hat]

.

 

That was me NOT being a troll.

 

I was laughing at your feeble attempt to "big up" the support by ADDING the votes for two different locos together to claim that double the number of people supported the (L)NER, ignoring the fact that almost all of the votes were from the same people.

 

IF you don't think it as funny, then I worry about your sense of proportion.

 

( P.S.  Why this is on a Hornby thread rather than the Poll Thread ? )

 

.

 

I'm not attempting to 'big up' the different engines selected - just find a way of being able to provide different ways of interpreting the data. Several engines in the poll combine the types, owing to them being similar, but equally so there's the chance for model companies to use parts to then make another engine, if the tooling allowed the process to be modified and produce more than one variant.

 

You can see this with some engines, Bachmann's class 37 has many different variations being able to be done and Hornby's P2 looks designed from the outset to include modification later for the P2/2. Bachmann have also clearly used the chassis of the 4-4-0 to produce both the Western city and the Midland Compound. If that's possible, then an engine like B16 should be able to be made by using one process to produce the three different variants. Clearly you haven't read what I put earlier, which is,

 

"...although you expect that demand for this would be lower if you grouped the options together, it would still show massive demand for a model covering all three options."

 

In so doing I have added the caveat that grouping all B16 models together would bring a higher total, but probably not the exact number if you voted for each variant in turn. Still, the fact that if you were to release each one, means that there is a high demand for all the variants and the combined total would show B16 as a popular choice with also a greater likelihood of repeat sales.

 

Equally so, combining the J21/25 shouldn't be an issue. Both of them scale down to using the exact same dimensions in 00 gauge for a chassis. Even the tender would be the same. So again, your looking at a combined interest that would elevate the popularity of the subject, rather than seeing each engine standing apart.

 

Maybe the poll should thus separate the D1 and E1 in the Southern section poll then if your wanting not to combine scores, a result which by your own logic should lower/half their standing and thus demand for them to be made.

 

However, some might think you are trolling. You are mocking without putting up any sensible alternative means to back up your views. So far you have been advocating that those wanting NER models buy engines we don't want from another pre-grouping area, (which would only boost the sales and encourage more development for the wrong region), or suggesting we should all ensure pre-orders for engines that don't exist because they haven't been announced to sell out.

 

I find it humorous that you can contribute to bemoan our discussion about a type your not interested in but I know previously I have said that there's a lot of Southern engine being made and that other areas are consequently overlooked. Its different when one region gets everything it wants and even gets diesel and electric engines made for it as they would be useless elsewhere, but that's a discussion I have raised before. Its not as if people suggesting North Eastern region/company models are so confident to go and put a tick-wishlist on as a signature.   

 

I advise caution, lest you not learn the trend the Eastern region has shown. Looking at the Southern region area poll your fast getting into territory that the Eastern region is, where your vote splits as people go across to pre-grouping companies the size, allocation and operation of one main shed within the NER. Still, while 34theletterbetweenB&D might enjoy a number of designs that cover the lower areas of the ECML, the hope is, as this discussion will show as it continues, that such releases continue to cover an area further north in the North Eastern Region and its previous forms.

Edited November 15, 2018 by The Black Hat

[sem34090]

The thread has now been moved to the Pre-Grouping section.

 

As such, I feel that I ought to make a small point - The pre-grouping section is -on the whole- a friendly area of lighthearted discussion with a judicious amount of whimsy thrown in for good measure. The atmosphere is pleasant, and most of the contributors get along most of the time. As such, and also speaking as the OP of this thread, I think several people would very much appreciate it if it remained that way, with no heated arguments and general stone-throwing.

[phil gollin]

.

 

I'm surprised there is not a lot of excitement over this ;

 

https://www.rmweb.co.uk/community/index.php?/topic/139570-rails-announce-ner-electric-autocar-in-oo/

 

.

[Edwardian]

.

 

I'm surprised there is not a lot of excitement over this ;

 

https://www.rmweb.co.uk/community/index.php?/topic/139570-rails-announce-ner-electric-autocar-in-oo/

 

.

 

I'm excited.

[sem34090]

I hadn't heard about it...

 

Now even I as a die-hard Southerner am excited!

[Edwardian]

I hadn't heard about it...

 

 

 

Yes, because the man with the measuring tape passed unseen.  Unseen, that is, save by Your Correspondent ....

[The Black Hat]

It is indeed excellent news that this is going to be made as a model, as the prototype has been excellently restored and looks splendid. The fact that it is new to preservation and will highly likely tour various lines means you can get a model of what you see.

 

The model does have the ability to run in two liveries being LNER brown and the attractive NER Crimson and White (No red and white as I'm a Newcastle supporter...). Both of these will look great, but it will be interesting to find out whether there are bogie differences between the ones that ran yesteryear and the ones that it might have now. If there are few differences then that's fine, but I don't really know and someone elsewhere has pointed out they could be different.

 

The main draw will be to model something that was the first DMU, but can run alongside all the other steam traffic. The Western Region Steam motor would have the same effect as effectively it is a unit. The colour of the unit in Crimson and White will also draw people to want it, simply for looking different to other stock of the time, yet, while this might be excellent news for being a niche model and gorgeous topic to cover, it shows exactly how the market now looks for niche models that will sell alongside more traditional workday choices that would bring in repeat sales over time.

 

That's why those wanting NER machines that lasted till the end of steam can suggest engines that have both the gorgeous pre-grouping outline, such as J21, but also lasted well into the popular transtition period that a lot of people want to chose as the period to model, and thus model the North East Region.  

 

The fact that NER machines could be done in NER Green, through to BR late crest, can give model companies both the niche pregrouping sale and both the popular transtition period model in one choice, hitting the two areas of the market that most look to build anticipated demand. It would also put the choice ahead of others that don't have the classic lines of a well designed locomotive that can attract the sale of someone from another region and interest, so buys the model to satisfy 'rule 1'.

 

In the end, the Autocar is an excellent choice, but shows the potential other models can have, and that there are plenty of choices from the North Eastern Railway and Region that would easily be commercially successful.

 

[Jol Wilkinson]

 

 

In the end, the Autocar is an excellent choice, but shows the potential other models can have, and that there are plenty of choices from the North Eastern Railway and Region that would easily be commercially successful.

 

 

All RTR models presumably have commercial potential otherwise the manufacturers would not have invested in them but it seems that the more unusual or rare attract most interest. The recent 4mm poll gave an indication of that.

 

This will no doubt sell well, as did the NRM/Rapido Stirling Single, helped by being a one off. It  may well  lead the RTR manufacturers to produce other models of preserved NER locos, as they can capitalise on the interest created for the NER with this, the NER O/LNER G5, etc. How quickly they will be introduced, given the design and production lead times and demand for models from other railways is a somewhat bigger question.

[Edwardian]

How quickly they will be introduced, given the design and production lead times and demand for models from other railways is a somewhat bigger question.

 

There was an opinion piece in the press a month or so back that cited the problems experienced by a number of established manufacturers and pointed to the large retailers' need for a constant supply of new product, opining that this could not be satisfied by the long lead times into production of RTR products and thus foreseeing trouble.  At least that's how I understood the article. We live in interesting times.

 

Of course, now that the Autocar is on its way, I don't really need an E1, but rather an E and an H2!

[Edwardian]

the attractive NER Crimson and White (No red and white as I'm a Newcastle supporter...).

 

"poppy red and ivory" - the varnish over the white paint producing ivory.

[The Black Hat]

"poppy red and ivory" - the varnish over the white paint producing ivory.

 

That's getting dangerously close... Least its horizontal and not vertical stripes like the Mackem's strip...

[Regularity]

All RTR models presumably have commercial potential otherwise the manufacturers would not have invested in them but it seems that the more unusual or rare attract most interest.

Back in the day, K’s best seller was the LMS Garratt, most of which were probably never assembled, and of those which were assembled, most were probably not motorised but built for display. (The second best thing to do with many K’s kits. The first being to melt them down for something else...)

 

It’s a lovely prototype, but there are plenty of other NER designs such as J21/4/5/7 or G5* which would undoubtedly be more useful to 4mm scale modellers who are inclined to buy ready made rather than build kits.

 

*OK: wasn’t aware that TMC have announced one.

Edited November 21, 2018 by Regularity

[GeoffAlan]

I have the following ex-NER types running on my layout- ALL RTR....

 

Two J25s

a J26 with a second waiting chipping

two J27s with another waiting chipping

and a D20.

 

But then again I model in N.

Isn't it time the OO boys caught up?

 

Les

 

Beat me to it!

two-passenger.jpgtwo-J25.jpg

[Regularity]

At grouping, the J21 counted for 10% of the NER’s locos: a substantial proportion. Plus of course, one of them is preserved, making research easier and sales more likely. Is the tense on Hornby’s 0-8-0 suitable for other classes?

[Edwardian]

At grouping, the J21 counted for 10% of the NER’s locos: a substantial proportion. Plus of course, one of them is preserved, making research easier and sales more likely. Is the tense on Hornby’s 0-8-0 suitable for other classes?

 

A Class C (please, Simon, think of where you are!) would the top of my list. Any later NER 0-6-0 is optional.

[The Black Hat]

As a further development from the analysis of the 2018 Poll;

 

The following table has been produced which shows the total votes for the top 10 selections from all companies in the Eastern region. All votes for companies have been combined and included, with the LNER being a separate company and others shown as their pre-grouping origins. More companies registered selections in 2018 than compared in previous years, but still the only ones to record 10 or more selections were GE, NER and LNER. Other companies managed some, but NBR did much better than in previous years, but their selections towards the end polls low. GC polls very low, which is surprising as Bachmann have attempted to make engines for this area, but they also transit into other areas nearby. The Great Northern selection has few in number but poll stronger than GC or NBR on a case by case basis.

 

Its interesting to note that the niche selections of classes that had very few numbers are polling much higher, as people look to complete the various gaps in the big locomotive fleet. P2/2's had 6, Hush Hush is a prototype of 1, with the Rebuild W1 and the U1 Beyer Garratt also a sole examples. Gresley V4 and P1 also only had 2 and K4 had 5 examples over time, with one being rebuilt. A lot of these, while are LNER designs are ones Gresley took an active part in, as people look to lobby for the whole Gresley range. Its also likely that these are seen as more viable by enthusiasts given productions of sole example designs such as Duke of Gloucester or the small group of original P2's which so far has only featured a model of 2001 Cock of the North.

 

However, the effect has been that such increases in voting for the few remaining Eastern Region models has been that pre-grouping looks on first impressions to have taken a hit. Actually, this is not always the case, as NER and GE selections have been dropped when models have been announced. The G5 and B12 have taken out significant sections of the vote from 2 years previous. Other selections have moved up in the top 10 lists, but naturally when popular ones are announced it takes for them to be made and for others to build in demand replacing the ones that were there previously. Even so, some of the ones that have entered the top 10 for the NER are the strongest ones that do, polling a lot higher than GE examples that have moved into the selection.

 

 

As some engines have been released, I would expect the trend for NER items to continue to grow. I also think that the popularity of the region remains strong, especially when you look at lower polling items that indicate a stronger foundation than other areas that have previously been selected, like the Great Eastern or even some pre-grouping areas in Southern territory.

 

Will post more on some of this soon. Hope that's of interest.