RTR North Eastern Railway Locomotives - A discussion.

[The Black Hat]

What happened to 2017?

The graph mostly shows me that more people have responded to the survey over time, with a slight decline this year. LSWR popularity is strange.

 

To be meaningful, the graph needs to show not the numbers, but percentages, as you are trying to show changes in relative popularity. You can do that either as a line for each railway company, or as stacked percentages totalling 100% for each year.

 

So far, the chart doesn’t show a great deal, and certainly not anything to support any debate about popularity.

 

And that’s my professional opinion. If I was presented this at work, then if I would reject it.

 

Okay, some issues with your assessment.

 

Firstly, there was no poll in 2017, hence the lack of date shown. Secondly, the graph doesn't need to show percentages, as really that would need to be as a percentage of the total of the overall poll. Given that it includes all other stock, it would skew the results when we are looking at just steam and pre-grouping companies. If you want to do it as a series of percentages then I can add the information, but personally, I reject the need to do so.

 

The number of people in the poll has generally increased, but that isn't to say that they are all voting for the same topics. If you remove the total votes of the poll, it still shows a comparable total per company that can be compared. I have used the raw data to make direct comparisons and given that the same format has been used to total the votes per company and as a result believe such a format repeated each year gives you a relative view of the issues and can show trends.

 

Clearly the chart is accurate. The decline in the totals of the LSWR shows the fact that models that were listed in their category were announced bringing down the total as other models were yet to rise as interest in the area is gained when a model for that area is released. That also explains the drop in NER due to the G5, and Caledonian Railway due to the 0-6-0 also being done. It is not a reflection on any drop in numbers of the total people in the poll, and the decline in numbers from LSWR is not strange if you have read discussions or the line under the graph that mentions engines having been released.

 

So I maintain that the chart can still reflect on the total votes against each company and that events and trends can still be traced through it, particularly when you understand some of the issues behind it. Rather than reject it, you can decide that it might be worth further research.

 

I'd suggest, politely, that perhaps you might not have gained most of the information from the chart, by not following all the detail the post above, or the information in the thread, and that as a result regardless of your professional opinion or not, it should not be rejected, but seen for a basic view and allow debate and others to take it forwards.

 

 

[Regularity]

No, I followed the detail above. The percentages would be based not on the overall numbers, just the totals within the chart. You can put the total onto the chart, using the right hand axis as a second axis.

 

As you have produced a line chart, you should have included an axis point for 2017, with no data showing for that year, as you are showing time series data and the gap is important.

 

But feel free to ignore my professional experience in a career spent largely in data science or using data and analytics, as well as time spent teaching data, reporting and statistical analysis, including a spell on the steering committee for the National Centre for Statistical Education.

[The Black Hat]

No, I followed the detail above. The percentages would be based not on the overall numbers, just the totals within the chart. You can put the total onto the chart, using the right hand axis as a second axis.

 

As you have produced a line chart, you should have included an axis point for 2017, with no data showing for that year, as you are showing time series data and the gap is important.

 

But feel free to ignore my professional experience in a career spent largely in data science or using data and analytics, as well as time spent teaching data, reporting and statistical analysis, including a spell on the steering committee for the National Centre for Statistical Education.

 

 

Producing a chart with no data for 2017 because there was no Poll might be the completely right and proper way of doing things, but for most it would just confuse and it would not as easily show the general upward trends of what is clear from the data when displayed.

 

I might be a historian by trade, who oddly enough now operates in a sector for operations, but most people are happy with the charts and graphs I have done so far and then taken them as a good representation for what is shown and discussed. It is interesting to note how it should or could be done should the level of detail command the audience of the National Centre for Statistical Education, but for now I think the standard is good enough.

 

Your advice was not ignored. It was considered and duly declined. Part of education, of which I have experience, is the understanding of Pedagogy and having factored in the group I was educating on this, I understand that this was good enough to achieve the objective I set out to do. I hope that factors in discussions on how to get people to understand statistics at the National Centre for Statistical Education.

[Regularity]

Enough. I have pointed out that it was difficult to draw conclusions from your presentation. I have tried to point out that I really know what I am talking about here. You don’t want to heed any comments that don’t suck up to you, so I will stop making them.

[The Black Hat]

Okay then, lets try again. 

 

Seen as though the topic here is about engines and how they poll, not how to fully and totally do a statistical chart. 

 

 

I find the results of the graph interesting. North Eastern has been very strongly polling and has been for years. When you consider that shop commissions and general ranges have included a great number of releases of the south, its a wonder that by comparison more are not there for the North East region. Thankfully that seems to be changing. The release of the Q6 has been followed by the new E1/J72 the announcement of the O-class/G5. While these are welcome, its still clear that a lot of models for the south have been made, both pre-grouping but also some company engines that have seen the area dominate both general ranges and new commissions from shops, magazines and new companies. 

 

While this might be welcome for those down south, it seems that other areas do not poll well. Despite this, Bachmann have been quite happily releasing a range of engines for Lancashire and Yorkshire areas and some for Great Central, which again does not poll as strongly as others. Is this because rather than just the release of a model, follow up with a more direct link to a following model, or is it that more people simply just buy a new model and run 'Rule 1', regardless of what it is. Personally, I think that the topic of the engine itself does matter. People can overlook a model they are not interested in or wait to get it later if they feel that there is a chance it can be bought at a later date. 

 

Some of the runs of products now seem to be shorter, creating demand and holding the prices of some new engines high. However, what that in turn does is drive people to buy an engine that is a short run and in many cases a novelty item to run alongside general range stock. Many of the shop commissions have done this, but in doing so, meant that some main range items are sitting on shelves whereas they would have been purchased before when people would have bought another of a type they already had. I think that more than anything explains why many Southern engines are sat on bargain shelves. Not that there isn't demand but rather that many people are getting other types all for an area that is being very well covered. I think many people modelling the south are also modelling more than one pre-grouping company, so wanting others to cross the boundary and be seen in other ones nearby.

 

There's nothing stopping someone voting for two pre-grouping designs from two companies in the southern area, the poll simply allows you to vote for what you like. Given how small some companies were before the Southern was grouped, then its possible for some engines to be seen at boundaries and for an enthusiasts interest to be taken from a wider geographical area, as normally they would relate to the whole southern region. But that means buying many engines from different pregrouping companies and that in turn asks the question how much can everyone buy. If they vote for stock and engines from a whole grouped region but take an interest in pregrouping steam that was seen in it, then you have the problem of lots of models to buy and wonder how many can you afford. People then buy the quick runs that are limited and will sell out to get the model thats niche but interesting that they want. 

 

Up north, the situation is different. The distance between companies is much bigger and the areas of the prototype were more self contained. While some such as the Great Central again cross boundries and might be a reason why Bachmann has included them as they were seen in both Midland and Eastern regions, many of the other companies remained quietly influential in their traditions and identities in some ways till the end of steam. That the North East Region came about is testament to its strength to operate as a stand alone area but also one showing its importance for its operation. Other areas were also important, such as the LNWR but these areas poll much much lower by comparison. 

 

So this raises the issue of comparative popularity. If you can only vote for one company would their popularity still hold? Does it mean that the popularity of some southern companies is because people vote twice, where as in other areas where companies were bigger they remain more loyal to their local or particular interest. Thus their totals are lower, but actually buying power might be higher given they just want one company and not two. 

 

It would be interesting to hear what others think. I'm here to debate and listen to others, that's if you can figure out some of the big themes I'm drawing from what I'm told is a badly laid out chart... 

Edited November 29, 2018 by The Black Hat

[Fenman]

Hello Simon

 

The Poll didn't run in 2017. We decided to 'take a year off' as some makers were catching up with production.

 

Brian (on behalf of The 00 Poll Team)

Quite. But by using an unequal scale along the bottom, the OP risks distorting the graph - making changes up or down look steeper than they should.

 

Though even if that is corrected, I’m still not sure this graph shows anything of significance to support the OP’s cause: there are so many variables polluting the data, which wasn’t collected for this purpose.

 

Paul

[phil gollin]

.

 

What is the number of locos per pre-grouping railway ?

 

IF one railway has, say, 20 locos, and another has 30 then what is the chart actually comparing ?

 

MAYBE, if you divide the votes by the number of locos one could get a comparison of "votes per loco" per group, but otherwise what you are probably measuring is the number of locos in the poll.

 

.

[Compound2632]

I'd point out that The Black Hat isn't the OP of this thread. But I think it's pushing things a bit far to put forward such rational ideas as that the size of a company's locomotive stock or the size of an individual class should have any bearing on the question. If it did, we'd have a LNWR SDX 0-6-0 by now.

[brack]

.

 

What is the number of locos per pre-grouping railway ?

 

IF one railway has, say, 20 locos, and another has 30 then what is the chart actually comparing ?

 

MAYBE, if you divide the votes by the number of locos one could get a comparison of "votes per loco" per group, but otherwise what you are probably measuring is the number of locos in the poll.

 

.

I sort of tried to go there a little but couldn't get hold of actual number of locos at grouping, only the number ranges in use (a reasonable proxy I thought). I'm sure the data is there for it, but it didn't turn up in my quick search.

 

I agree with the general gist that the NER is underrepresented and certain companies are definitely overrepresented.

However I don't think we need all the graphs and suchlike to tell us this, nor do I think it'll make a ha'penth of difference to the manufacturers whatever is said on this thread, particularly as certain views are stridently and repeatedly expressed in a way which hints towards some personal bias.

 

Wait and see how the G5 and the new J72 sell. I might expect that to be of more significance to the manufacturers than a handful of folk getting worked up on a forum.

[Edwardian]

These discussions all suppose that there is some kind of  plan.  Well, I daresay there is some kind of plan, but it is based on justifying each individual model, not providing joined-up releases that help to represent a given region, company or period. Releases will continue to be apparently haphazard and random, lacking any logic from the pre-Grouper's point of view.

 

There are problems inherent in injection-moulded based manufacturing.  The tooling costs work against variants and dictate that by and large only BR condition toolings are often contemplated, as only this period yields the volumes necessary to amortise tooling costs in the first production run.

 

There are clearly problems with the biggest manufacturers. Bachmann remains mired by long-lead times and increasing costs - see the Caley 0-6-0 price hike, and I predict a price hike for the O Class/G5. Hornby has profound problems. It resembles a herd of sheep that has lost its shepherd and so invited in a wolf to lead them.    

 

It is commissions - from retailers/magazine/museum - that is driving the market.  I think it is commissioners that are responsible for pretty much every new and announced pre-Grouping model from the Stirling Single and the SE&CR P Class onward (save the E1/J72 and the adapted Atlantic, both Bachmann). Even so, there are indications that some manufacturers are struggling to meet the needs of commissioners.  Hattons and Kernow appear to have abandoned DJM in favour of direct instructions, Rapido's business model inhibits commissions and Bachmann is evidently struggling to achieve a sensible price point.  

 

In short, I wouldn't expect too much.

 

EDIT: It will be interesting to see if the new Terrier raises the bar in catering for quite a number of variants via the tooling suite, as that potentially bucks the trend I describe. By contrast, we don't even have the minor changes necessary to make the O/G5 is as built condition.  

Edited November 30, 2018 by Edwardian

[phil gollin]

.

 

What is the number of locos per pre-grouping railway ?

 

IF one railway has, say, 20 locos, and another has 30 then what is the chart actually comparing ?

 

MAYBE, if you divide the votes by the number of locos one could get a comparison of "votes per loco" per group, but otherwise what you are probably measuring is the number of locos in the poll.

 

.

.

 

People seem to have misunderstood (or I did not make it clear enough) that I was talking NOT about the number of individual real life locos, but the number of classes of locos represented in the poll.  I.E.  Class A, and Class B and Class C total three, even if in real life there were 20 of each totalling 60.

 

Now if one company has 7 classes in the poll, and another has 10 classes in the poll and they all polled 100 votes then one line of the chart would show 700 votes and the other 1000 votes thus "misleading" people into thinking that the second pre-grouping company was more popular, whereas in reality they are exactly similar.

 

Total votes is NOT just dependent on popularity, but of number of entries in the category.  This is a variation of the previous misleading interpretation of the figures.   IF 100 people want any/every loco of a particular company and there are more locos listed for one particular company then the chart will give an incorrect impression.

 

The chart will only give some sort of "fair" figure if the lines represent AVERAGE votes per loco listed.  (THIS itself can be misleading if a company has one or two loco classes which have huge support and many others with mediocre support.) 

 

.

[runs as required]

My brain is beginning to ache (having been obliged to participate in teaching stat. presentation for some years in the last century) trying to visualise the impact upon graphic data presentation that the various posters have been discussing..

 

But, reading it all, I have definitely decided not to buy for my RTR NER stock one of the Lidl glass fronted collectors' cabinets that appear on their centre aisle at this time of the year.
Instead I should concentrate on trying to improve my skills in building etched kits (starting with an ES1 ?) .

 

Encouraging younger entrepreneurs such as the OP to develop 3D printed components of their favourites, for us punters to assemble Kitmaster style, is surely the way ahead as RTR fades from viability.

 

dh

Edited December 1, 2018 by runs as required

[BMacdermott]

Hello everyone

 

The 00 Poll team never 'analyses' the results but I am always happy to present them in different formats if it helps to see how things fit.

 

I have attached a table which might help (or not if 'runs as required's' head is still aching!)

 

Brian (on behalf of The 00 Poll Team)

LNER Locos in The Wishlist Poll 2018.pdf

[The Black Hat]

Cant help but feel deflated and that Hornby massively missed a chance to charge into the NE Region / railway area. 

Masses of duplication, yet more Southern models for a market massively over saturated, while leaving areas that poll well and can match anticipated demand. Think Hornby had the exact time to bring out a B16 or J21. But no... 

[Porcy Mane]

Winge & Moan department still fully operational for 2019. Only around about another 358 days to go.

 

Crystal Ball makes another prediction.

 

[sem34090]

Cant help but feel deflated and that Hornby massively missed a chance to charge into the NE Region / railway area.

 

Masses of duplication, yet more Southern models for a market massively over saturated, while leaving areas that poll well and can match anticipated demand. Think Hornby had the exact time to bring out a B16 or J21. But no...

Bachmann have yet to announce.

 

Also, who knows what Hornby have planned for the next few years? They work about two years in advance these days, so it's possible they have those beautiful machines planned for 2020 or 2021?

[Regularity]

It’s a constructional hobby, not retail therapy...

[The Black Hat]

Bachmann have yet to announce.

 

Also, who knows what Hornby have planned for the next few years? They work about two years in advance these days, so it's possible they have those beautiful machines planned for 2020 or 2021?

 

Hope your right. If Bachmann go for it I think your looking at a J27. Could be the 2MT or 3MT, but not holding my breath... 

[Axlebox]

Cant help but feel deflated and that Hornby massively missed a chance to charge into the NE Region / railway area. 

 

Masses of duplication, yet more Southern models for a market massively over saturated, while leaving areas that poll well and can match anticipated demand. Think Hornby had the exact time to bring out a B16 or J21. But no... 

...less of a charge, more of a shunt...but many a shunt maketh the train

 

...the 48DS was quite popular in County Durham...

Stillington (2)

Crook (2)

Hartlepool

Port Clarence

Birtley

Tyne Dock

Darlington

 

...and one of the new 6 wheeled Peckets is from Ryhope colliery!.

 

...so lads, lets rejoice in the potential that has been bestowed upon us from Sunny Margate!

[russ p]

One of the last 48DSs in industrial service was at guisborough which lasted until late 90s

[Dick Turpin]

Bachmann have yet to announce.

 

Also, who knows what Hornby have planned for the next few years? They work about two years in advance these days, so it's possible they have those beautiful machines planned for 2020 or 2021?

 

Indeed. They were never going to announce anything Scottish straight after the J36, And - now with well satiated southern customers, where do you think they will be looking to next? As Regularity points out above, we've plenty to be going on with in the meantime one way or another. 

[Porcy Mane]

...less of a charge, more of a shunt...but many a shunt maketh the train

 

...the 48DS was quite popular in County Durham...

Stillington (2)

Crook (2)

Hartlepool

Port Clarence

Birtley

Tyne Dock

Darlington

 

...and one of the new 6 wheeled Peckets is from Ryhope colliery!.

 

...so lads, lets rejoice in the potential that has been bestowed upon us from Sunny Margate!

 

Ya forgot about the one the old boy in the hospital bed opposite me used to drive at RHP's at Greencroft. 305302 I think? Make a nice little diorama that. Sat alongside the the Consett Tyne Dock line. Maybe Eddy might consider it as an extension to Blackbill.

 

Funny that Tyne Commissioners had a 48DS and a B2 0-6-0 Peckett on their books at the same time. Maybe Hornby will do a twin pack???

 

P

[Axlebox]

Ya forgot about the one the old boy in the hospital bed opposite me used to drive at RHP's at Greencroft. 305302 I think? Make a nice little diorama that. Sat alongside the the Consett Tyne Dock line. Maybe Eddy might consider it as an extension to Blackbill.

 

Funny that Tyne Commissioners had a 48DS and a B2 0-6-0 Peckett on their books at the same time. Maybe Hornby will do a twin pack???

 

P

...and apparently Clarke Chapman in Gateshead had one aswell (221642)

[Axlebox]

Ya forgot about the one the old boy in the hospital bed opposite me used to drive at RHP's at Greencroft. 305302 I think? Make a nice little diorama that. Sat alongside the the Consett Tyne Dock line. Maybe Eddy might consider it as an extension to Blackbill.

 

Funny that Tyne Commissioners had a 48DS and a B2 0-6-0 Peckett on their books at the same time. Maybe Hornby will do a twin pack???

 

P

...also Seaham had a B2 Peckett as did Eldon/St Helens, Hordon and the 2 at Ryhope...

 

So that makes 11 48DSs having worked in Durham and 6 Peckett B2s...this of course doesn't include those that worked North of the Tyne or South of the Tees.

[johndon]

Ya forgot about the one the old boy in the hospital bed opposite me used to drive at RHP's at Greencroft. 305302 I think? Make a nice little diorama that. Sat alongside the the Consett Tyne Dock line. 

 

 

Excuse enough for me to get one...