Class 66 in OO Gauge - New Announcement

[TomScrut]

I'd agree. The Hattons one on video at least looks too brown not red enough. My 2p worth anyway written enough drivel on here tonight!

[newbryford]

Will the world stop turning if a model is delayed for a few weeks [*] ?

 

 

I think you'll find the answer is no.

 

 

[*] admittedly longer in some cases, but after 7 years of the world turning, I've finally got my EMT 158.

 

 

 

[truffy]

9 hours ago, john new said:

I guess rather like the "what colour do you see" images of the dress and the trainer that circulate regularly on social media when it comes to interpreting colours it really does depend on whether you are right or left sided when it comes to the wiring of your brain. 

 

Or could it be a case of buyer's self-confirmation (or whatever the technical psychology term is for persuading yourself that a recent purchase was the right thing to do)?

 

Having a YouTube channel doesn't beget any form of unbiased critical honesty or expertise. I've seen a couple of how-to's where the 'tuber seems to be 'learning by doing'!

[adb968008]

I think were forgetting events in Guangdong and Hong Kong..

 

In Guangdong late 2018/early 2019 a “wheel manufacturer” closed down.. taking down a process that pretty much ran 24/7 putting wheels on axles (a mind numbing job if there ever was one)... they supplied a lot of factories... without wheels your model isn't going to roll, so I guess that would interrupt supply...

 

Accordingly Hornbys packs of 10 wagon / coach wheels have gone up nearly £10 in 2 years !

 

Other factories have been forced to relocate (Rapido, Kader and others) and at least one retired / closed down without warning. This all puts months of delay into the system.
 

Whilst Hong Kong isnt known for its model production any longer, there are still several businesses with accountancy, design, CAD, management, logistics etc, And last 6 months HKs residents have been rearranging their city every night, and its not just students.. many highly qualified professionals, directors and management have taken part in it and took staff with them, doing business in HK has become slow - I know from my own experience in the IT industry getting stuff done has been an issue the last half year.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 15, 2020 by adb968008

[Eden Road TMD]

I have resigned myself to the fact that my Cemex 66 will be delayed, despite ordering one on launch day and being told it will be air freighted and will arrive before Xmas. A email to say it was delayed would have been nice, rather than rely on the website updates.

 

But hey, we are where we are. Looking forward to getting mine as the samples at Warley looked fantastic.

[rob D2]

5 hours ago, The Black Prince said:

The "EWS" font has been wrong since the first samples and they ignored everyone's advice...

 

Also agree that the shade of maroon is very brown and Bachmann's shade is closer to the real thing. 

Is the font still wrong on production ones then ?

 

I always thought Bachmann shade of red was rather close to dried blood, rather than the fairly vibrant red of these machines when delivered. To me hattons actually looks better, but it’s very subjective 

[john new]

23 minutes ago, Eden Road TMD said:

I have resigned myself to the fact that my Cemex 66 will be delayed, despite ordering one on launch day and being told it will be air freighted and will arrive before Xmas. A email to say it was delayed would have been nice, rather than rely on the website updates.

 

But hey, we are where we are. Looking forward to getting mine as the samples at Warley looked fantastic.

I’m still puzzled that with us now on the 15th the date showing against several of the sound versions is still only the vague entry of January.  The delays may well not be Hattons fault but you would have thought with only 16 days left of January by now they would have been given an approximate drop off date if it’s still anticipated to be this month. 
 

That it will be here when it arrives on date unspecified I can live with conceptually but I may need to alter the delivery address dependent on when it will actually be on its last leg of the journey to me.
 

Edited January 15, 2020 by john new

[Eden Road TMD]

16 minutes ago, john new said:

I’m still puzzled that with us now on the 15th the date showing against several of the sound versions is still only the vague entry of January.  The delays may well not be Hattons fault but you would have thought with only 16 days left of January by now they would have been given an approximate drop off date if it’s still anticipated to be this month. 
 

That it will be here when it arrives on date unspecified I can live with conceptually but I may need to alter the delivery address dependent on when it will actually be on its last leg of the journey to me.
 

 

Yes i think that too, website now states Feb/Mar for the version i have on order. They must have an idea from the shipping company where the container is and its eta into the UK. 

[Roy Langridge]

18 hours ago, TomScrut said:

 

I don't think I am missing any point to be honest. I am saying that the dates they give should be based on some element of truth (or what China tells them should I say) but I cannot see a reason why they would build in a fudge factor to try and make the times accurate, as there wouldn't be any accuracy would there? Yes it's a k

 

Shall I just throw all my years of project management and running a company in the bin then and just start trusting what suppliers tell me? The whole point of metrics would be to increase accuracy of forecasting - they are not a "fudge factor". Mature* organisations use them extensively. You can develop metrics for different types of contract (say new loco, retooled loco, coach, wagon) and for different factories.

 

Anyhow, what do I know...
 

Roy

 

*Mature in terms of process employed, not years in existence.

 

[7013]

What do I know? well one thing I sure as hell don't know and that is what 'metrics' are.

[surfsup]

Question for @Hattons Dave, Is there a rough estimate for the delivery of the Colas 66s? 

[adb968008]

1 hour ago, Roy Langridge said:

 

Shall I just throw all my years of project management and running a company in the bin then and just start trusting what suppliers tell me? The whole point of metrics would be to increase accuracy of forecasting - they are not a "fudge factor". Mature* organisations use them extensively. You can develop metrics for different types of contract (say new loco, retooled loco, coach, wagon) and for different factories.

 

Anyhow, what do I know...
 

Roy

 

*Mature in terms of process employed, not years in existence.

 

Black Swans don't use metrics either.

 

Project Management isn't the personification of a crystal ball, though often Project Managers get kicked for not predicting the unpredictable.

I sometimes think companies hire project managers when they should be hiring Psychics, but some PMs think they are Mystic Meg too.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

 

Edited January 15, 2020 by adb968008

[Roy Langridge]

1 hour ago, adb968008 said:

Black Swans don't use metrics either.

 

Project Management isn't the personification of a crystal ball, though often Project Managers get kicked for not predicting the unpredictable.

I sometimes think companies hire project managers when they should be hiring Psychics, but some PMs think they are Mystic Meg too.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

 

Off topic, but Black Swans is more about unknown unknowns, not known unknowns. You can’t use metrics for black swan events, but most delays out of China are for known reasons, New Year for example. 
 

Roy

[raetiamann]

On 13/01/2020 at 12:04, Andy7 said:

Sort of covered above. If you are buying a Hattons 66 then you should be a modeller (my personal view), if you aren’t then maybe the Hattons 66 isn’t what you need,  try Bachmann or Hornby. 
In the quest for fidelity and detail then separately fitted parts WILL fall off from time to time, that’s a fact. 
Can’t wait for mine to arrive and do some modelling on them.

 

I find this quite offensive.  How can you know the individual modeller's situation? I had hoped to buy a few Hatton's 66 models, but am put off by the thought of spending upwards of £260 on a loco, expecting to have to glue bit on, so yes that means I'll stick with Bachmann.  On your logic I'm therefore not worthy of calling myself a modeller? 

 

After suffering from Rheumatoid Arthritis for many years, my hands really struggle with small detail and some work on the layout. Refixing fallen axle boxes may simply be too difficult for me to do.

[89A]

2 hours ago, 7013 said:

What do I know? well one thing I sure as hell don't know and that is what 'metrics' are.

 

Could someone enlighten what metrics are because for me it is the new system of measurement following on from feet and inches or pounds shillings and pence.

[Colin_McLeod]

Metrics:

 

https://searchcustomerexperience.techtarget.com/definition/business-metric

[89A]

Thanks Colin

[IamDaniel]

On 14/01/2020 at 09:25, Hattons Dave said:

 

Hello Daniel,

 

Owing to some unavoidable delays in the shipping process, we have provided an updated delivery schedule on our website. We’re now expecting all versions of the models ending 033 to 037 arrive with us around the end of February/early March. 

See the full delivery schedule, here: http://bit.ly/38fo4qn

 

I hope this helps.

 

Cheers,

Dave

 

Useful to know. Thanks for coming back to me, Dave.

[TomScrut]

4 hours ago, Roy Langridge said:

 

Shall I just throw all my years of project management and running a company in the bin then and just start trusting what suppliers tell me? The whole point of metrics would be to increase accuracy of forecasting - they are not a "fudge factor". Mature* organisations use them extensively. You can develop metrics for different types of contract (say new loco, retooled loco, coach, wagon) and for different factories.

 

Anyhow, what do I know...
 

Roy

 

*Mature in terms of process employed, not years in existence.

 

 

No need to patronise me on what metrics are. They are a prediction and therefore to an extent are a "fudge factor".

 

Definition of fudge factor according to Google:

"a figure included in a calculation to account for some unquantified but significant phenomenon or to ensure a desired result."

 

Regardless of how one may try to quantify an amount of time it takes to make something using metrics, it is only improving the estimate and therefore it is still unquantified. So the way I see it it's a fudge factor albeit an educated one.

 

Anyway, you're going on about metrics and not responding to my point that when it comes to giving a date to customers (in this case) it is in my opinion probably more beneficial to not account for problems and to give an ideal world date. The downsides of something coming early outweigh those of it coming late.

Edited January 15, 2020 by TomScrut
Typo

[TomScrut]

2 hours ago, Roy Langridge said:

Off topic, but Black Swans is more about unknown unknowns, not known unknowns. You can’t use metrics for black swan events, but most delays out of China are for known reasons, New Year for example. 
 

Roy

 

I do agree with you here, the issues with China are not generally black swans. It's just that there are that many potential issues that statistically I would expect in the case of these types products (i.e. stuff to go wrong, not annual events like New Year which are easy to account for) where tooling, samples, corrections and production are all done over there that the variance is that big that the date outcome is the most likely date yet still unlikely. That's before the CAD work time (which I know for a fact is difficult to predict) is accounted for.

 

What's most likely, the model rail industry are completely ignorant to the concept of metrics or that they have a view similar to mine regarding public release dates?

[ruggedpeak]

2 hours ago, Roy Langridge said:

Off topic, but Black Swans is more about unknown unknowns, not known unknowns. You can’t use metrics for black swan events, but most delays out of China are for known reasons, New Year for example. 
 

Roy

Black swans aren't unknown unknowns, they are major events that are previously unexperienced and when evidence points towards them becoming a thing/occurence those responsible for dealing with them can't comprehend and therefore can't prevent or manage them.

 

9/11 is a good example - there was plenty of evidence that terrorists planned to fly planes into buildings but because it had never happened before those responsible for counter-terrorism simply dismissed the evidence. It was a harsh lesson for the FBI. Black swans happen when people rely on metrics - the refusal to use imagination and follow evidence means these are predictable in advance but are ignored by those who use "metrics" and precedent.

 

Taleb's book is a thought provoking read.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

[big jim]

I thought it was a film about a ballet dancer

[rob D2]

Other than Big Jim’s message,

I have absolutely no idea what precisely the xxxx p74 of this thread is talking about.

 

when you manage to get 9/11 into a thread about a baby shed I think your doing rather well with the thread creap.

[royaloak]

3 hours ago, rob D2 said:

I have absolutely no idea what precisely the xxxx p74 of this thread is talking about.

With all this talk of black swans I assumed everyone had been to Dawlish!

Edited January 16, 2020 by royaloak

[YesTor]

19 hours ago, The Black Prince said:

The "EWS" font has been wrong since the first samples and they ignored everyone's advice... 

 

14 hours ago, rob D2 said:

Is the font still wrong on production ones then ? 

 

Unfortunately, yes.  Frustrating really as to why this was completely ignored, the font for EWS and 66XXX clearly of the same style, weight etc...

Whereas on the model the EWS is clearly much finer...
 

 

 

I was initially pleased too that 66207 was chosen with its mismatched cab doors, but sadly these also seem to have been portrayed with only one cab door being mismatched when in fact both should be as such... 

 

 

 

Purely frustrating more than anything, as I'd planned on at least a couple of examples in EWS livery.  Still, it hasn't detracted me from purchasing other liveries - and let's be honest there's a lot to choose from - as I do feel this to be an otherwise quite stunning model.  The level of detail really is most impressive - the solebar area and bogies really are quite something, cab detail is really captured well with some really nice details inside, and the bodyside grilles do indeed look fantastic and far better/finer than I had anticipated, in fact.  For me it's turning into one of those models that 'the child within' forces me to keep returning to for another 'peep', just in case I missed something...   

 

Remove the bodyshell and inside everything is very neat, tidy and very well thought through, such as the contact plungers bridging the electrical connections from chassis to roof, meaning there's no cumbersome wires to deal with when removing the body - a nice touch.  The only part whereby I broke out into a cold-sweat was actually getting the bodyshell back on, as while the body itself is designed to simply slide and clip onto the chassis, the presence of the cab door steps/handrails hanging from the body itself means that all four step assemblies have to be maneuvered simultaneously (and rather awkwardly) over the chassis and are a very tight fit and additionally very, very delicate.  I cannot actually foresee many of these oh-so-delicate parts surviving many bodyshell removal/re-assembly sessions.  Although to be fair, it is difficult to see how this feature could have been designed any differently, as the steps/rails either need to be attached to the chassis, which would result in an unrealistic gap between the steps/handrails and the body, or mounted on the body itself resulting in the delicate assembly that we have.  Tricky.

 

Overall, from the four locos I initially received, two were returned due to being 'wobbly' runners (despite several hours running in of both) and I'm currently (and eagerly) awaiting replacements.  The other two that I have here - now they've been run in at length -  really feel to be substantial, weighty, and super-smooth-running models.  When all is said and done, I've been harping on about someone producing a top-notch 'shed' for what seems like an eternity, so maybe I'm in a slight minority in being optimistically confident that once these apparent teething troubles are ironed out that these 'sheds' will be worth the patience that seems to be required in some cases.    

 

And now I simply can't wait for the sound versions!  

 

(PS...  Dave, please, please, pleeeeease sort out the EWS fonts for the next run...?!)

 

cheers

Al

 

 

Edited January 16, 2020 by YesTor