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Class 66 in OO Gauge - New Announcement


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31 minutes ago, No Decorum said:

I don’t think estimates  are ambitious in order to get business. It strikes me as far more likely that estimates just don’t allow for the unforeseen. Because delays are unforeseen, planners have no idea how long they’ll be.


In project management you have known unknowns and unknown unknowns. If I were a manufacturer I would be building a set if metrics for the known unknown of China delays. It isn’t rocket science. 
 

Roy

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19 minutes ago, Roy Langridge said:


In project management you have known unknowns and unknown unknowns. If I were a manufacturer I would be building a set if metrics for the known unknown of China delays. It isn’t rocket science. 
 

Roy

 

Yes but what is the better outcome from a business perspective? Early or late? Whilst customers will get annoyed at late a lot will be annoyed at early too, rightly or wrongly.

 

Not many people will cancel orders because of lateness but lots would be frustrated at things turning up early when they don't have the money yet and have to cancel and then they sit on shelves until they sell.

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8 hours ago, stock_2007 said:

I'm not sure how long a delay has to be before its 'bad' I'm really glad I never sold my Bachmann 66's on

 

Fair enough, each to his own, although on the other hand I'm more than pleased that I did move all of my Bachmann 66s on... while the resale value was still high.  I can survive a couple of extra months without a model. 

 

 

Edited by YesTor
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1 hour ago, YesTor said:

 

Fair enough, each to his own, although on the other hand I'm more than pleased that I did move all of my Bachmann 66s on... while the resale value was still high.  I can survive a couple of extra months without a model. 

 

 

 

Yep, I only have 66721 and 66779 both of which for now at least should hold value. Until Hattons get their hands on them that is!

 

I sold three non celebs off at similar to what I paid for them.

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2 hours ago, TomScrut said:

 

Yes but what is the better outcome from a business perspective? Early or late? Whilst customers will get annoyed at late a lot will be annoyed at early too, rightly or wrongly.

 

Not many people will cancel orders because of lateness but lots would be frustrated at things turning up early when they don't have the money yet and have to cancel and then they sit on shelves until they sell.


You miss the point, through use of metrics (which can be very powerful) you aim to have a realistic date so that delivery is neither early, nor late. As for people cancelling if items arrive early, as a business you would have to weigh up expected numbers cancelling for early v late and see where the biggest risk is. Also, who says you have to cancel if it arrives early? Nothing would stop somebody from saying the order could be honoured until the expected date if they do arrive early. 
 

Roy

Edited by Roy Langridge
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7 minutes ago, Roy Langridge said:


You miss the point, through use of metrics (which can be very powerful) you aim to have a realistic date so that delivery is neither early, nor late. As for people cancelling if items arrive early, as a business you would have to weigh up expected numbers cancelling for early v late and see where the biggest risk is. Also, who says you have to cancel if it arrives early? Nothing would stop somebody from saying the order could be honoured until the expected date if they do arrive early. 
 

Roy

 

I don't think I am missing any point to be honest. I am saying that the dates they give should be based on some element of truth (or what China tells them should I say) but I cannot see a reason why they would build in a fudge factor to try and make the times accurate, as there wouldn't be any accuracy would there? Yes it's a known unknown, as in its fairly likely to happen, but the extent of it is a stab in the dark (because there are so many reasons it can happen) so other than planning for the worst internally and planning for the best externally I can't see any other sensible thing to do. And the customer taking it with a pinch of salt which I think we all do.

 

The exact point I am making is the next step on from what you are saying, pros and cons of early/late. Hardly anyone will cancel from a delay (within reason), they want the product and they were already willing to wait for it. People will cancel because it's early and they can't afford it, as why would the manufacturers hold it and keep their money tied up (which they'll want back ASAP) for somebody to maybe buy in 6 month's time when the fake date was at the expense of being able to market/distribute it there and then? If it doesn't sell the person who cancelled because they didn't have the money would probably buy it anyway when they have the money.

 

I think if the manufacturers had their way they would sell everything out on pre order and nothing would go on the shelves. Money in straight away for what was probably a big outlay several months ago. Giving optimistic dates will help that more than giving late dates will IMO.

 

I'm pretty sure if Accurascale came out now and said "37s and 55s due in next month instead of Q4" because they had added in a time factor which never happened there would be a lot of people wondering what to do. Whether that means them cancelling with Accurascale (who will have wanted a deposit), or something else such as from Hornby, Bachmann or Hattons where deposits maybe weren't needed either way it's not good for the industry as it leads to stocked shelves, worsened cash flow and possibly discounting. Better for the consumer in the short term but in the long term?

 

So in short whilst it's a nuisance from the buyers perspective I can't see it changing and aren't sure it should for the greater good of the industry. If it's late all we have to do is wait and moan, getting the date wrong with the stuff coming early could have a knock on effect.

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Interestingly I've just picked a random YouTube unboxing video to watch to see whether when my sound fitted 66957 arrives (hopefully some time during this month) there is anything to physically avoid doing whilst unboxing it that might damage the model.

 

I'm not going to add the link but after unboxing his new EWS version the reviewer then started comparing it against his existing Bachman version. He was really slating the colour of the older model -v- his new one. I fully appreciate all the vagaries of lighting mentioned earlier in this thread but taking his YouTube video as the exemplar the older Bachman one, under the lighting used, to my eyes looks nearer to right - the converse of his view!

 

I've subsequently checked my memory against some YouTube videos of the prototype and I can see nothing to make me change my opinion that, at least as presented in his video, Bachman's EWS livery is a closer match contradicting his voiced statements. I guess rather like the "what colour do you see" images of the dress and the trainer that circulate regularly on social media when it comes to interpreting colours it really does depend on whether you are right or left sided when it comes to the wiring of your brain. 

 

Edited by john new
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Will the world stop turning if a model is delayed for a few weeks [*] ?

 

 

I think you'll find the answer is no.

 

 

[*] admittedly longer in some cases, but after 7 years of the world turning, I've finally got my EMT 158.

 

 

 

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9 hours ago, john new said:

Interestingly I've just picked a random YouTube unboxing video to watch to see whether when my sound fitted 66957 arrives (hopefully some time during this month) there is anything to physically avoid doing whilst unboxing it that might damage the model.

 

I'm not going to add the link but after unboxing his new EWS version the reviewer then started comparing it against his existing Bachman version. He was really slating the colour of the older model -v- his new one. I fully appreciate all the vagaries of lighting mentioned earlier in this thread but taking his YouTube video as the exemplar the older Bachman one, under the lighting used, to my eyes looks nearer to right - the converse of his view!

 

I've subsequently checked my memory against some YouTube videos of the prototype and I can see nothing to make me change my opinion that, at least as presented in his video, Bachman's EWS livery is a closer match contradicting his voiced statements. I guess rather like the "what colour do you see" images of the dress and the trainer that circulate regularly on social media when it comes to interpreting colours it really does depend on whether you are right or left sided when it comes to the wiring of your brain. 

 

The "EWS" font has been wrong since the first samples and they ignored everyone's advice...

 

Also agree that the shade of maroon is very brown and Bachmann's shade is closer to the real thing. 

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9 hours ago, john new said:

I guess rather like the "what colour do you see" images of the dress and the trainer that circulate regularly on social media when it comes to interpreting colours it really does depend on whether you are right or left sided when it comes to the wiring of your brain. 

 

Or could it be a case of buyer's self-confirmation (or whatever the technical psychology term is for persuading yourself that a recent purchase was the right thing to do)?

 

Having a YouTube channel doesn't beget any form of unbiased critical honesty or expertise. I've seen a couple of how-to's where the 'tuber seems to be 'learning by doing'! :D

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I think were forgetting events in Guangdong and Hong Kong..

 

In Guangdong late 2018/early 2019 a “wheel manufacturer” closed down.. taking down a process that pretty much ran 24/7 putting wheels on axles (a mind numbing job if there ever was one)... they supplied a lot of factories... without wheels your model isn't going to roll, so I guess that would interrupt supply...

 

Accordingly Hornbys packs of 10 wagon / coach wheels have gone up nearly £10 in 2 years !

 

Other factories have been forced to relocate (Rapido, Kader and others) and at least one retired / closed down without warning. This all puts months of delay into the system.
 

Whilst Hong Kong isnt known for its model production any longer, there are still several businesses with accountancy, design, CAD, management, logistics etc, And last 6 months HKs residents have been rearranging their city every night, and its not just students.. many highly qualified professionals, directors and management have taken part in it and took staff with them, doing business in HK has become slow - I know from my own experience in the IT industry getting stuff done has been an issue the last half year.

 

 

 

 

Edited by adb968008
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I have resigned myself to the fact that my Cemex 66 will be delayed, despite ordering one on launch day and being told it will be air freighted and will arrive before Xmas. A email to say it was delayed would have been nice, rather than rely on the website updates.

 

But hey, we are where we are. Looking forward to getting mine as the samples at Warley looked fantastic.

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5 hours ago, The Black Prince said:

The "EWS" font has been wrong since the first samples and they ignored everyone's advice...

 

Also agree that the shade of maroon is very brown and Bachmann's shade is closer to the real thing. 

Is the font still wrong on production ones then ?

 

I always thought Bachmann shade of red was rather close to dried blood, rather than the fairly vibrant red of these machines when delivered. To me hattons actually looks better, but it’s very subjective 

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23 minutes ago, Eden Road TMD said:

I have resigned myself to the fact that my Cemex 66 will be delayed, despite ordering one on launch day and being told it will be air freighted and will arrive before Xmas. A email to say it was delayed would have been nice, rather than rely on the website updates.

 

But hey, we are where we are. Looking forward to getting mine as the samples at Warley looked fantastic.

I’m still puzzled that with us now on the 15th the date showing against several of the sound versions is still only the vague entry of January.  The delays may well not be Hattons fault but you would have thought with only 16 days left of January by now they would have been given an approximate drop off date if it’s still anticipated to be this month. 
 

That it will be here when it arrives on date unspecified I can live with conceptually but I may need to alter the delivery address dependent on when it will actually be on its last leg of the journey to me.
 

Edited by john new
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16 minutes ago, john new said:

I’m still puzzled that with us now on the 15th the date showing against several of the sound versions is still only the vague entry of January.  The delays may well not be Hattons fault but you would have thought with only 16 days left of January by now they would have been given an approximate drop off date if it’s still anticipated to be this month. 
 

That it will be here when it arrives on date unspecified I can live with conceptually but I may need to alter the delivery address dependent on when it will actually be on its last leg of the journey to me.
 

 

Yes i think that too, website now states Feb/Mar for the version i have on order. They must have an idea from the shipping company where the container is and its eta into the UK. 

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18 hours ago, TomScrut said:

 

I don't think I am missing any point to be honest. I am saying that the dates they give should be based on some element of truth (or what China tells them should I say) but I cannot see a reason why they would build in a fudge factor to try and make the times accurate, as there wouldn't be any accuracy would there? Yes it's a k

 

Shall I just throw all my years of project management and running a company in the bin then and just start trusting what suppliers tell me? The whole point of metrics would be to increase accuracy of forecasting - they are not a "fudge factor". Mature* organisations use them extensively. You can develop metrics for different types of contract (say new loco, retooled loco, coach, wagon) and for different factories.

 

Anyhow, what do I know...
 

Roy

 

*Mature in terms of process employed, not years in existence.

 

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1 hour ago, Roy Langridge said:

 

Shall I just throw all my years of project management and running a company in the bin then and just start trusting what suppliers tell me? The whole point of metrics would be to increase accuracy of forecasting - they are not a "fudge factor". Mature* organisations use them extensively. You can develop metrics for different types of contract (say new loco, retooled loco, coach, wagon) and for different factories.

 

Anyhow, what do I know...
 

Roy

 

*Mature in terms of process employed, not years in existence.

 


Black Swans don't use metrics either.

 

Project Management isn't the personification of a crystal ball, though often Project Managers get kicked for not predicting the unpredictable.

I sometimes think companies hire project managers when they should be hiring Psychics, but some PMs think they are Mystic Meg too.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

 

Edited by adb968008
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1 hour ago, adb968008 said:


Black Swans don't use metrics either.

 

Project Management isn't the personification of a crystal ball, though often Project Managers get kicked for not predicting the unpredictable.

I sometimes think companies hire project managers when they should be hiring Psychics, but some PMs think they are Mystic Meg too.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

 


Off topic, but Black Swans is more about unknown unknowns, not known unknowns. You can’t use metrics for black swan events, but most delays out of China are for known reasons, New Year for example. 
 

Roy

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On 13/01/2020 at 12:04, Andy7 said:

Sort of covered above. If you are buying a Hattons 66 then you should be a modeller (my personal view), if you aren’t then maybe the Hattons 66 isn’t what you need,  try Bachmann or Hornby. 
In the quest for fidelity and detail then separately fitted parts WILL fall off from time to time, that’s a fact. 
Can’t wait for mine to arrive and do some modelling on them.

 

I find this quite offensive.  How can you know the individual modeller's situation? I had hoped to buy a few Hatton's 66 models, but am put off by the thought of spending upwards of £260 on a loco, expecting to have to glue bit on, so yes that means I'll stick with Bachmann.  On your logic I'm therefore not worthy of calling myself a modeller? 

 

After suffering from Rheumatoid Arthritis for many years, my hands really struggle with small detail and some work on the layout. Refixing fallen axle boxes may simply be too difficult for me to do.

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2 hours ago, 7013 said:

What do I know? well one thing I sure as hell don't know and that is what 'metrics' are.

 

Could someone enlighten what metrics are because for me it is the new system of measurement following on from feet and inches or pounds shillings and pence.

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