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The lowest €$¥£₼лв₡₪денлв₫ and of course.. ¥ p/hr.

I deliberated avoided cost as that is a hardy perennial, although perhaps less so these days. It was the particular skillset that was the 'part' of the attraction I was drawing attention to. It isn't always about cost, otherwise how would the luxury end of any market survive, nay thrive even? Because of the craftsmanship, skill, quality, originality and ingenuity.

 

My question remains - does the UK have a labour force ready, willing and able to complete work to the equivalent standards?

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I deliberated avoided cost as that is a hardy perennial, although perhaps less so these days. It was the particular skillset that was the 'part' of the attraction I was drawing attention to. It isn't always about cost, otherwise how would the luxury end of any market survive, nay thrive even? Because of the craftsmanship, skill, quality, originality and ingenuity.

 

My question remains - does the UK have a labour force ready, willing and able to complete work to the equivalent standards?

http://www.ooworks.co.uk
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I'm not at all sure that one small example answers the question about 'a labour force'.  Clearly there is a reservoir, which probably could be developed and enlarged, of highly skilled people in the Britain as many niche industries have shown.  My previous next door neighbour started a watch and clock making business which has gradually trained up people locally and replaced bought in Swiss movements with British made ones - but the market is relatively small and the prices make Rolex look like a bunch of beginners.

 

The $64,000 question for the likes of model railway production is about a relatively large workforce mass producing highly detailed models of consistent quality at a saleable price.  While it might be possible to recruit and train a suitable labour force could anybody afford to employ them making a consistent supply of models produced by the thousand, or even in multiples of 500, year after year at the sort of prices such work would require to make the business a viable proposition?  This really applies to any sort of industry or task which involves manual skill and dexterity as a key part of the manufacturing process.  I suspect that for now you can forget it for volume production of the sort that most of the model railway market, even for commissioned models needs.  But there will, I think, always be a demand for high quality work created by highly skilled inputs from those prepared and able to pay for it.

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I'm not at all sure that one small example answers the question about 'a labour force'. Clearly there is a reservoir, which probably could be developed and enlarged, of highly skilled people in the Britain as many niche industries have shown. My previous next door neighbour started a watch and clock making business which has gradually trained up people locally and replaced bought in Swiss movements with British made ones - but the market is relatively small and the prices make Rolex look like a bunch of beginners.

 

The $64,000 question for the likes of model railway production is about a relatively large workforce mass producing highly detailed models of consistent quality at a saleable price. While it might be possible to recruit and train a suitable labour force could anybody afford to employ them making a consistent supply of models produced by the thousand, or even in multiples of 500, year after year at the sort of prices such work would require to make the business a viable proposition? This really applies to any sort of industry or task which involves manual skill and dexterity as a key part of the manufacturing process. I suspect that for now you can forget it for volume production of the sort that most of the model railway market, even for commissioned models needs. But there will, I think, always be a demand for high quality work created by highly skilled inputs from those prepared and able to pay for it.

http://www.Dapol.co.uk/image/data/News%20Items%20and%20press%20release/UK%20Production.pdf

 

I think you put down the UK too much, the worlds aviation industry relies on Rolls Royce engines, and satellite data... it makes model trains look like clock work.

 

Of course the UK could provide a labour supply, as long as the technology and training was part of the investment.

 

Whether it’s competitive enough is another question, but as the hobby shrinks and becomes more bespoke, the less economic it becomes to tool up in China. Similarly an injection moulding machine uses the same amount of Watts, and uses the same amount of space in China as it is in the UK.. so the more automation the less the labour input also makes the UK more attractive.

Right now China wins, but the margins today aren’t the same margins of 2000.

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I deliberated avoided cost as that is a hardy perennial, although perhaps less so these days. It was the particular skillset that was the 'part' of the attraction I was drawing attention to. It isn't always about cost, otherwise how would the luxury end of any market survive, nay thrive even? Because of the craftsmanship, skill, quality, originality and ingenuity.

 

My question remains - does the UK have a labour force ready, willing and able to complete work to the equivalent standards?

Surely!

http://www.djhmodelloco.co.uk/batch-built-ready-to-run/

Rather more prolific than some limited production manufacturers, I think!

 

I do believe in Britain and the British workforce btw, it's just that 'our' leadership over the past decades since the end of WW2 (pretty much) does seem to have set 'us' on course for a race to the bottom, as my esteemed colleague pointed out earlier.

I did forget aerospace and bio/science earlier but I consider car assembly to be "non-skilled" - as Henry Ford put it, the assembly line allowed people used to working in the fields to put a car together!

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I deliberated avoided cost as that is a hardy perennial, although perhaps less so these days. It was the particular skillset that was the 'part' of the attraction I was drawing attention to. It isn't always about cost, otherwise how would the luxury end of any market survive, nay thrive even? Because of the craftsmanship, skill, quality, originality and ingenuity.

 

My question remains - does the UK have a labour force ready, willing and able to complete work to the equivalent standards?

Quite clearly it is cost. Labour rates in China are a fraction of those over here. That’s the attraction.

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Surely!

http://www.djhmodelloco.co.uk/batch-built-ready-to-run/

Rather more prolific than some limited production manufacturers, I think!

 

I do believe in Britain and the British workforce btw, it's just that 'our' leadership over the past decades since the end of WW2 (pretty much) does seem to have set 'us' on course for a race to the bottom, as my esteemed colleague pointed out earlier.

I did forget aerospace and bio/science earlier but I consider car assembly to be "non-skilled" - as Henry Ford put it, the assembly line allowed people used to working in the fields to put a car together!

 

I did not realise DJH had set off on this course in such a major way. Prices are above Dapol, but much less than the high end we have been used to in 0 gauge. A really good positioning, and I can only assume a ready market. Previously, one could have said that 0 gauge was a more expensive hobby than 16mm or G gauge. Dapol came and disproved that (with Chinese production I assume), and now DJH have found a middle road. Interesting and proves that market creators have just as much a role as lowest cost drivers or very high quality, high cost elites.

 

But I still do not understand your belief. If most manufacturing is now as boring as was late Victorian/Ford era assembly, which Britain, outside the aerospace and shipbuilding crafts, largely adhered to in the 50's and 60's when the decline of our home based engineering was set, as the protectionism of the Empire waned, what is this highly skilled Nirvana you are predicting (or at least wishing for)?

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I did not realise DJH had set off on this course in such a major way. Prices are above Dapol, but much less than the high end we have been used to in 0 gauge. A really good positioning, and I can only assume a ready market. Previously, one could have said that 0 gauge was a more expensive hobby than 16mm or G gauge. Dapol came and disproved that (with Chinese production I assume), and now DJH have found a middle road. Interesting and proves that market creators have just as much a role as lowest cost drivers or very high quality, high cost elites.

 

But I still do not understand your belief. If most manufacturing is now as boring as was late Victorian/Ford era assembly, which Britain, outside the aerospace and shipbuilding crafts, largely adhered to in the 50's and 60's when the decline of our home based engineering was set, as the protectionism of the Empire waned, what is this highly skilled Nirvana you are predicting (or at least wishing for)?

 

DJH have been doing it for some time - basing things around batch built kits so for example in the case of the O gauge 'Britannia' the kit is £595 and the r-t-r (i.e ready assembled and painted) version is £2,075.  In other words the factory is doing exactly the same as various individual craftsman kit constructors and painters.  They only offer the ready built and painted models in O gauge, probably because that market is more amenable to bearing the cost and it doesn't have the r-t-r competition for the models they offer.  You can of course do exactly the same in OO if you take one of their kits to a professional builder and then a professional painter.

 

Not exactly comparable with a run of a couple of thousand (or even a batch of 500) OO r-t-r locos with multi-pass tampo printing to finish a model which involves several hundred parts with many of the parts assembled or added by hand.   As I said before - a lot of it simply down to a matter of scale of production and being able to do it at a marketable cost.  

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But I still do not understand your belief. If most manufacturing is now as boring as was late Victorian/Ford era assembly, which Britain, outside the aerospace and shipbuilding crafts, largely adhered to in the 50's and 60's when the decline of our home based engineering was set, as the protectionism of the Empire waned, what is this highly skilled Nirvana you are predicting (or at least wishing for)?

The GBP has been on a promoted downward spiral for 20+ years.

Politicians like it, as the home market see’s managed inflation whilst having less ability import spending ability.

 

A high £ but a low salary, people don’t like, but a low £ with a higher salary people do accept as they feel wealthier, even when they aren’t, and are more likely to spend on domestic consumption.

 

Similarly in global hiccups companies will down size costlier/riskier ventures before cheaper ones.

 

I hate to bring Brexit into the debate, but it brings oppourtunities if the £ crashes.

Whilst the average Brit won’t pick strawberries, they will be quite happy to manufacturer EU quality goods and services for the EU market whilst on the periphery of the EU at a much more competitive rate than within Europe... and every company likes a cheap workforce located in areas of low business rates.. even EU companies.

i could imagine places like Shannon with its tax free zones, together with low forex becoming part of the UK scene. China has been searching Europe for a European shipping hub for several years (Iceland, Cuidad Real have both been attempted), but the security aspect raises concern, the UK could provide this hub and maintain security...and for reasons of historical prestige i’d Imagine China would be all over it bringing high $$$ revenues.

 

Indeed i’d Even suggest the employment rate is so high right now because of it.

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The GBP has been on a promoted downward spiral for 20+ years.

Politicians like it, as the home market see’s smaller inflation whilst having less ability to see how the rest of the world evolves.

A high £ but a low salary, people don’t like, but a low £ with a higher salary people do accept as they feel wealthier, even when they aren’t, and are more likely to spend on domestic consumption.

 

Similarly in global hiccups companies will down size costlier/riskier ventures before cheaper ones.

 

I hate to bring Brexit into the debate, but it brings oppourtunities if the £ crashes.

Whilst the average Brit won’t pick strawberries, they will be quite happy to manufacturer EU quality goods and services for the EU market whilst on the periphery of the EU at a much more competitive rate than within Europe... and every company likes a cheap workforce.. even EU companies.

Indeed i’d Even suggest the employment rate is so high right now because of it.

 

Well, I suggest you look at very recent history (and in fact much of earlier history) to learn that none of what you have said is actually true.

 

Just take the last couple of years. Sterling dropped, quite a lot. Hooray, said many people. Now we can export more and wages will go up. But imports went up, exports went down, and inflation rose faster than wages. I hate to mention Brexit too, but...... the people who made the most money from that were financiers dealing in foreign currencies or placing earnings and assets in low taxation countries (like a certain Mr Rees-Mogg) and companies whose main trade is in dollars (like most multi-national companies, of which hardly any are now British majority-owned). Company investment has dropped, and foreign investment (which has been the majority of hard core industrial investment for the past several decades) has dropped by 90% (ninety per cent). Hard to discern the benefits you claim.

 

So let's agree to disagree, apart from the fact that a falling pound is rather unlikely to benefit Hornby, given its present position. 

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But I still do not understand your belief. If most manufacturing is now as boring as was late Victorian/Ford era assembly, which Britain, outside the aerospace and shipbuilding crafts, largely adhered to in the 50's and 60's when the decline of our home based engineering was set, as the protectionism of the Empire waned, what is this highly skilled Nirvana you are predicting (or at least wishing for)?

Hi Mike,

Erm, not to prolong this discussion but I rather think this could go way, way off topic so I'll bow out now, no offence.

Cheers,

John.

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It's not just engineering jobs that are in decline - IT is in trouble as well.

 

My department has been TUPE transferred to a foreign outsourcing company. The contract says we are paid more for enhancement work, so we have extra projects dumped on us as well as our previous "wheels on the wagon" work. We also have to train up the people who will ultimately replace us, or be in breach of contract and lose 20 years redundancy. Our pay rise has just come in 2% lower than our erstwhile colleagues in our old company. 

 

You actually couldn't make it up. 

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It's not just engineering jobs that are in decline - IT is in trouble as well.

 

My department has been TUPE transferred to a foreign outsourcing company. The contract says we are paid more for enhancement work, so we have extra projects dumped on us as well as our previous "wheels on the wagon" work. We also have to train up the people who will ultimately replace us, or be in breach of contract and lose 20 years redundancy. Our pay rise has just come in 2% lower than our erstwhile colleagues in our old company. 

 

You actually couldn't make it up. 

You have my sympathy...I was lucky and left IT in 2010, having the hours and premium payments altered, expected to do call-out and be back for 0900. Led by somebody who had less experience at the coal face.....amongst other things. Oddly enough all those managers involved in the execution of the grand plan at that time have moved on/out.

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Similarly an injection moulding machine uses the same amount of Watts, and uses the same amount of space in China as it is in the UK.. so the more automation the less the labour input also makes the UK more attractive.

Right now China wins, but the margins today aren’t the same margins of 2000.

 

It doesn't matter how many Watts of power an injection moulding machine uses - its the actual man / lady hours needed to assemble all the bits produced by said machines into a finished model that costs!

 

Statements like yours show a fundamental lack of understanding of the mainstream model railway business model and the key drivers for offshore production.

 

Until we develop robots with the dexterity of the skilled labour currently used in China to do such work (or accept a massive downgrade in quality terms so the output of the injection moulding machine needs virtually no work before it gets plonked on a chassis, boxed up and shipped out) it will be uneconomic to return production of anything other than the most basic stuff to the UK.

 

The reason Rolls Royce (and the aerospace industry in general) has done well is because although their product is expensive to make in the UK, they can sell it at a sufficiently high margin to cover the costs (helped by some technology being shared with military uses and thus subject to MOD vetos on it being made overseas).

 

The reason Nissan have a large plant in Sunderland by contrast is because they have invested heavily in robots to perform as much of the assembly etc as possible and thus produce vast quantities of cars with a minimum of skilled workers. In this case the large quantity of items sold, rather than the high price per item is what makes it viable to keep production in the UK.

 

As such its clear that without a significant reduction in [peoples wages, the days of the UK employing lots of folk undertaking traditional manufacturing are over - the UKs strengths now lie are very much in niche products / R&D / high tech / military sectors where very high labour costs are compensated for by other factors.

 

A shrinking market for model railways and / or rises in prices due to increased labour costs in China do not do anything to make it more viable to return manufacture to the UK.

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It doesn't matter how many Watts of power an injection moulding machine uses - its the actual man / lady hours needed to assemble all the bits produced by said machines into a finished model that costs!

 

You can get wagons produced and assembled in the UK but there's a price to pay even for very basic production and assembly.

 

HD and Wrenn followers seem more than happy to pay for them!

 

 

New Wrenn                                        www.wrennspecialist.co.uk/152-racing/ltd-edition-loco-ands/

 

New Hornby Dublo                          http://www.jodelmodels.co.uk/Series4/tabid/2940/language/en-US/Default.aspx

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You can get wagons produced and assembled in the UK but there's a price to pay even for very basic production and assembly.

 

HD and Wrenn followers seem more than happy to pay for them!

 

 

New Wrenn                                        www.wrennspecialist.co.uk/152-racing/ltd-edition-loco-ands/

 

New Hornby Dublo                          http://www.jodelmodels.co.uk/Series4/tabid/2940/language/en-US/Default.aspx

 

The Beyer-Garratt is a bit pricey lol

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The GBP has been on a promoted downward spiral for 20+ years.

Politicians like it, as the home market see’s managed inflation whilst having less ability import spending ability.

 

A high £ but a low salary, people don’t like, but a low £ with a higher salary people do accept as they feel wealthier, even when they aren’t, and are more likely to spend on domestic consumption.

 

Similarly in global hiccups companies will down size costlier/riskier ventures before cheaper ones.

 

I hate to bring Brexit into the debate, but it brings oppourtunities if the £ crashes.

Whilst the average Brit won’t pick strawberries, they will be quite happy to manufacturer EU quality goods and services for the EU market whilst on the periphery of the EU at a much more competitive rate than within Europe... and every company likes a cheap workforce located in areas of low business rates.. even EU companies.

i could imagine places like Shannon with its tax free zones, together with low forex becoming part of the UK scene. China has been searching Europe for a European shipping hub for several years (Iceland, Cuidad Real have both been attempted), but the security aspect raises concern, the UK could provide this hub and maintain security...and for reasons of historical prestige i’d Imagine China would be all over it bringing high $$$ revenues.

 

Indeed i’d Even suggest the employment rate is so high right now because of it.

 

 

At which opticians did you buy your rose tinted glasses ?? 

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It doesn't matter how many Watts of power an injection moulding machine uses - its the actual man / lady hours needed to assemble all the bits produced by said machines into a finished model that costs!

 

Statements like yours show a fundamental lack of understanding of the mainstream model railway business model and the key drivers for offshore production.

 

Until we develop robots with the dexterity of the skilled labour currently used in China to do such work (or accept a massive downgrade in quality terms so the output of the injection moulding machine needs virtually no work before it gets plonked on a chassis, boxed up and shipped out) it will be uneconomic to return production of anything other than the most basic stuff to the UK..

We completely agree ? I don’t understand your terse response ?

 

More automation, less labour. Until then it’s cheaper in China, but i do not believe it is as cost efficient as it was 20 years ago.

 

We agree, the industry is in China because of the lack of automation and high cost of labour and i didn’t need to abuse you to say it. Should the nirvana ultimate model railway making machine start making models as a wholly automated process, then it really won’t matter where it is.

 

However in an Armageddon scenario, hobby shrinks, prices rise, £ falls, China could become a parts supplier to thriving enterprises like OO works who can make super detailed affordable models in the UK for a reduced market and a price that sustains it.

 

I'm not a die hard in that it should come back to the UK, neither am I a steadfast that its exclusively China, it has to be the best place to  meet the demand, at the volume and quality that makes a financial return. Unless this country really does go backwards at high speed, I'd imagine an alternative to China may some day be Africa, but thats not today. Indeed the day may come that the industry doesnt batch produce at all and we all go 3D print at the same standard, quality and precision with painted finishes that we enjoy today.

 

But if your telling China or bust, no China no models... everyone will throw their toys in the bin and find a new hobby if China ceases to make models and in no way can the UK succeed.. I completely disagree, take a look at the smaller suppliers section of the forum, starting with Peco... they and all the other garden shop operations might not be on the scale of Bachmann and Hornby but they exist.if China ceases to be, they, like the bees/wasps after Humans exit the earth, will start to evolve so long as the demand exists, but today as it stands China is the best option, but that isn’t written in stone neither is UK or any other country/company either

 

Personally though, I think the hobby is in it's golden age, and enjoy the abundance of it whilst we have it, no one predicted this in the 1980's or even the 1990s. Many people have dumped their 70-90s models for the new age, but I dont sense the technical innovations that will see it advance much further than it is today at an affordable price at this time, this could well be as good as it gets. The future could be a slow decline with suppliers serving limited demand at higher prices with minimal new tooling.

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We completely agree ? I don’t understand your terse response ?

 

 

 

I read the line in your post I quoted as implying the major cost factor in RTR production was the productions of the parts themselves - hence the tone if my response.

 

 

 

I'm not a die hard in that it should come back to the UK, neither am I a steadfast that its exclusively China, it has to be the best place to  meet the demand, at the volume and quality that makes a financial return. Unless this country really does go backwards at high speed, I'd imagine an alternative to China may some day be Africa, but thats not today. Indeed the day may come that the industry doesnt batch produce at all and we all go 3D print at the same standard, quality and precision with painted finishes that we enjoy today.

 

But if your telling China or bust, no China no models... everyone will throw their toys in the bin and find a new hobby if China ceases to make models and in no way can the UK succeed.. I completely disagree, take a look at the smaller suppliers section of the forum, starting with Peco... they and all the other garden shop operations might not be on the scale of Bachmann and Hornby but they exist.if China ceases to be, they, like the bees/wasps after Humans exit the earth, will start to evolve so long as the demand exists, but today as it stands China is the best option, but that isn’t written in stone neither is UK or any other country/company either

 

They key point here is that assembly of finely detailed models is a skilled task - and places like India or Africa at present simply don't have enough folk capable of doing  / who are willing to do the job to the required standard. Indeed Hornby I believe did look at moving production elsewhere to try and keep costs down but concluded that it simply wasn't worth it due to the problems of quality control (and some think China is bad) that would result.

 

Yes things may change in future - but it will take a considerable amount of time to do so and as such has very little relevance to model railway production locations in the next few years.

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Indeed Hornby I believe did look at moving production elsewhere to try and keep costs down but concluded that it simply wasn't worth it due to the problems of quality control (and some think China is bad) that would result.

 

 

They did.  The Airfix range went to India

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They did.  The Airfix range went to India

 

And they tried model railway production in India and very quickly shot back to China due to major quality issues.  India seems to be ok for moulding work, as with Airfix kits, but not suited - at least in Hornby's experience - for the sort of assembly work needed for model railway items especially locos.  There are some strong rumours about that somebody else might be giving India a try but no firm information on that from the concern which is being rumoured.

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The world is changing.  Hasbro CEO is Brian Goldner is eyeing up a move away from China production.

 

 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/hasbro-to-move-more-production-outside-china-due-to-tariffs 

 

https://www.toynews-online.biz/law-politics/hasbro-outlines-plans-to-move-production-operations-out-of-china

 

 

Mattel, LEGO and Hasbro already have significant factories in Mexico.

 

Expect to see more production from BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa, ignoring China for this exercise) the MINT countries (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey).  Don't forget to add in Malaysia, Pakistan, Vietnam and Bangladesh.  Together that's a population of close to 3 billion.

 

Global sourcing is about to get really interesting.

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The world is changing.  Hasbro CEO is Brian Goldner is eyeing up a move away from China production.

 

 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/hasbro-to-move-more-production-outside-china-due-to-tariffs 

 

https://www.toynews-online.biz/law-politics/hasbro-outlines-plans-to-move-production-operations-out-of-china

 

 

Mattel, LEGO and Hasbro already have significant factories in Mexico.

 

Expect to see more production from BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa, ignoring China for this exercise) the MINT countries (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey).  Don't forget to add in Malaysia, Pakistan, Vietnam and Bangladesh.  Together that's a population of close to 3 billion.

 

Global sourcing is about to get really interesting.

 

Sorry, Lego and Martel dolls do NOT compare with finely detailed model railway locomotives.

 

Once again I reiterate its NOT the cost of running injection moulding machines etc that makes model railway items so expensive to make - its all those finely detailed parts which need to be precision fitted with nimble fingers.

 

IF workers in Mexico can match the skill of the Chinese, then of course that may be an avenue for Hornby etc to explore. However we have already explained that a trial of moving production to India showed that while they could handle the Aifix range the country simply did not have the skills or the right attitude to turning out high quality model railway items.

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Sorry, Lego and Martel dolls do NOT compare with finely detailed model railway locomotives.

 

Once again I reiterate its NOT the cost of running injection moulding machines etc that makes model railway items so expensive to make - its all those finely detailed parts which need to be precision fitted with nimble fingers.

 

IF workers in Mexico can match the skill of the Chinese, then of course that may be an avenue for Hornby etc to explore. However we have already explained that a trial of moving production to India showed that while they could handle the Aifix range the country simply did not have the skills or the right attitude to turning out high quality model railway items.

 

I would have thought that if Mexico held any promise for model railway manufacture the North American companies would have found it far simpler to go there than deal with China - but they appear no to have looked southwards (or maybe they did and found it very unpromising?).

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