Hornby Annual Results year ended 31 March 2018

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

If you look back you'll see I specifically said  "I thought I'd run a quick reality test as to the recovery potential from this sector". (i.e the Quality Loco Sector)

 

So it's not an error as I defined what I was doing,

I read and comprehended. You defined what you were doing. But it is still an error, because you equate 'discerning customers who require only very specific models for their layouts, collections, gifts or playrooms...' with model railway club members, which is wildly incorrect. The latter are a very small subset of that group in my opinion, formed on one simple piece of evidence. The two retailers I know best have told me that very few of their customers are club members. (My personal evidence is limited to knowing and actively regularly seeing a dozen folk who purchase RTR model railway product. All discerning and demanding, not one currently a  club member, or active participants on this or any other forum to the best of my knowledge.)

[Dunsignalling]

I've never been in a club . I really don't think the majority of MR folk are in clubs  and that therefore you have understated the market .  But I have no data on this , other than the other 2 people I know that buy model railways are also not in clubs.

But, if you were in a club, you'd know lots more.

Edited June 20, 2018 by Dunsignalling

[ejstubbs]

I really don’t know if the independent retailer can survive . He is being squeezed out by direct sellers . I think Hornby need to react to this . Face up to the fact that they no longer have a High St presence, if we ever visit the High Street that is . Sell direct, at least for a detailed range, with perhaps Railroad through traditional route. But really I think this is only postponing the inevitable . Reluctantly , because I used to enjoy visiting model shops too , go for a full Direct Sell Model.

 

Bachmann seem to be doing quite nicely think you without a direct channel (although I allow that they have also announced some 'retrenchment', in particular delaying/postponing some new releases).  If Bachmann can survive OK relying on retail channels, I'm not sure that I see the overriding imperative for Hornby to go down the direct sales route.  And, much as I dislike the argument, you yourself pointed out that they tried it before and it didn't work - arguably it led to some of the problems they are now experiencing, if only the (hopefully) one-off hit to profits from ceasing the unpopular discounting strategy.

[Andy Hayter]

 

 

I was not trying to cover the whole of their vast range of business, just looking at where serious MR folk, collector or not, can spend big money on the higher margin quality end of the market IF they can get what they want.

One small tranche of the whole I'd agree but like top end of other markets I guess its highly profitable. I wanted to get an idea of how much that sector could contribute to the whole Hornby turnaround story.

 

 

 

Colin

 

The IF is the pertinent word Colin.  Serious modellers (who I think you are trying to identify) will have specific needs and manufacturers may hit those needs or not.  If they hit it is a sale, if not, no matter how good the model, it's no sale.  And it is impossible for any manufacturer to meet all of the hits.  The scope of the hobby is just too wide.   In the last 12 months I have bought 3 models from Hattons, 3 from Bachmann and one from Hornby.  If Hornby had produced the models that B and Hattons made I would have bought 7 from Hornby.   If Bachmann had produced the Hornby model I would have bought none from Hornby.  It is as stark as that and the 12 months previously I bought nothing from any of them.  The next twelve months and Hornby are unlikely to get a sale from me unless there is a surprise announcement.  

 

And the really serious modeller may not be buying anything at all from the rtr guys.  

 

I have also to say that I agree with other posters that club members form a small percentage of the hobby and even a small percentage of the serious modellers.  I am no longer a member of a club (well actually a country member of my old club which is some 1500km away).  This is through geography not aversion to clubs; the nearest club is an hours drive away.  When I was a member I found many serious modellers who were not club members.  Some had an aversion to clubs, they did not mix with groups and did not want to.  Some had work and family commitments that made being a club member impractical.  Some (like me now) were just too geographically remote to make membership sensible.  Of the collectors I knew, almost to a man, they were not club members.  There was nothing for them there.  They were not going to take their prized possessions out of boxes for others to paw, nor run them with the risk of derailment and a miniscule scratch.  

 

When I was  a club member and ran our local exhibition we estimated that 80-90% of the serious modellers were not club members.  [Not just our club - any club.]

 

There is also a great danger in pigeon-holing people.  The man who buys the Hornby Wainwright SECR livery 0-4-4T is not necessarily a serious modeller or a collector.  It is just a pretty model.  He likes it and is feeling a bit flush.  It will look good in the model cabinet or running round his circle of track with a Mk 3 behind it.  The man who buys the 0-4-0T + 2 wagon train set with circle of track may however be a serious modeller.  This was bought for his 5 year old grand son/daughter as a birthday/Christmas present.

[Ozexpatriate]

There is also a great danger in pigeon-holing people.  The man who buys the Hornby Wainwright SECR livery 0-4-4T is not necessarily a serious modeller or a collector.  It is just a pretty model.  He likes it and is feeling a bit flush.  It will look good in the model cabinet or running round his circle of track with a Mk 3 behind it.  The man who buys the 0-4-0T + 2 wagon train set with circle of track may however be a serious modeller.  This was bought for his 5 year old grand son/daughter as a birthday/Christmas present.

This is always worth remembering. We RMwebbers exert far too much energy classifying the way people enjoy this hobby, most of which, in my opinion, is futile.

[Ozexpatriate]

As others have noted there are a number of clues as to the revised focus, viz. removing issues that force discounting and the negative flow-ons from that etc and then better meeting the needs of ".....on the whole, discerning customers who require only very specific models for their layouts, collections, gifts or playrooms.....".

 

As this latter part is music to the ears of many here I thought I'd run a quick reality test as to the recovery potential from this sector. Now not being based in the UK or ever having gone to a club meeting I'm supremely ignorant in the facts department but that hasn't stopped me making a range of estimates as a Straw Man for others to challenge.

...

I've never been in a club . I really don't think the majority of MR folk are in clubs  and that therefore you have understated the market .  But I have no data on this , other than the other 2 people I know that buy model railways are also not in clubs.

There are about 400 model railway clubs (of all types) in the UK.

If they have an average membership of 25 people each thats 10 000 "club memebers" out of probably 100 000 "enthusiasts".

I have also to say that I agree with other posters that club members form a small percentage of the hobby and even a small percentage of the serious modellers. ...

 

When I was  a club member and ran our local exhibition we estimated that 80-90% of the serious modellers were not club members.  [Not just our club - any club.]

I laud the attempt to try to numerically define market size, but using clubs as a basis is not going to derive an accurate number of enthusiasts.

[adb968008]

I laud the attempt to try to numerically define market size, but using clubs as a basis is not going to derive an accurate number of enthusiasts.

Perhaps an easier measure of hobby size is to look at magazine circulation figures.

I doubt 300 or even 3000 serious modellers is enough to sustain a monthly magazine.

 

Similarly it is less likely that non-serious modellers would subscribe to the magazine either, and finally I wouldn’t imagine all but a handful of serious modellers would be subscribing to several modelling magazines at the same time. (I have more engines than you can imagine and buy more than average by a margin.. so I must be hardcore, let alone serious, but I only subscribed just recently to BRM, and only other mags are Steam Railway and Back Track.

 

Quoting numbers...

http://www.rmweb.co.uk/community/index.php?/topic/132066-railway-modeller-april-2018/&do=findComment&comment=3079170

I would wager there’s at least 30k-50k “serious” modellers out there who fit the 4-6 locos a year category, and probably 3x the number of occasional modellers who are in the hobby somewhere, buying 1 or 2.

 

It’s worth noting there are 33k members on Rmweb.

 

If 10% of the serious modellers, and 2% of occasional modellers buy a particular class release (across all liveries/variants offered) that would give a market size of 3000 serious +(1500 to 2000 occasional) = circa 5000 market size of a class prototype... + those who buy more that 1 of that release, plus the hardcore...

 

we could ascertain the “hardcore element” of the hobby who are serious collectors, that would be the top 10% of the hobby.. approx 3000-5000 people who buy many more than 6 a year. if just 5% of that bracket buy into a model that’s 150-300..how big is a limited edition these days ? -300-500 ..meaning half of that limited run is low risk.

 

How can I relate this to reality.. we are often quoted numbers of 6000 for a prototype, with numbers falling towards 3000 at higher end or niche model priced releases.

Edited June 20, 2018 by adb968008

[LBRJ]

You are slightly off the point here about who buys what.

 

It is collectors who probably make up 75% of all sales of model locomotives. Not modellers who buy the occasional "out of period/location" anomalies because they are shiny and pretty; These are people who's hobby is collecting!

[adb968008]

You are slightly off the point here about who buys what.

 

It is collectors who probably make up 75% of all sales of model locomotives. Not modellers who buy the occasional "out of period/location" anomalies because they are shiny and pretty; These are people who's hobby is collecting!

You could well be right, but it’s quantifying that.

 

How much an anomaly I am I don’t know, but when it comes to UK OO RTR I have around 25 new locos on Pre-order I expect to arrive in 2018, 8 of which are prepaid, my collection has grown by more than that figure this year already, but many locos I buy aren’t always UK, nor often are they even runners and s/h makes a part of it.

 

Am I a big OO collector or average or even small ? - i’d Love to know how many Barclays have been sold... I see some people bought all 10.

 

I have changed my buying patterns the last two years though:

 

1. I’ve started to refrain Pre-orders where delivery is >1 year, as price is never honoured any more.

2. with raising prices, and increasingly longer shelf times leading to discounting down the road I have started deferring to buying multiples upon release... i’ll Take the “a-list”, but now the “b-list” can speculate unless the jungle drums are too great to risk ignoring... however that too can be misleading.. one manufacturer falsely claimed a near sell out last year.. its discounted heavily now and still in stock.. I won’t roll over twice with that company on that claim.

3. Thirdly where a tooling is a replacement of something I have multiples of, I’ve started to pass by as cost to replace vs new “never before done” toolings is my priority. (I’ve not ordered Dapol 43xx/61xx or Terriers to date).

4. with price rises i’m Generally not out of pocket with the older ones. (In the old days a new tooling would devalue the older one creating an incentive to clear your decks and avoid losing out)...I’ve less incentive to ditch (lesson was learned with the Duchess, I went with the LN but have drawn the line there since the recent price rises kicked in).

5. I’ve become cautious on commissions, some have been disappointing either in Quality, Running or Detail, so i’m more of a Wait and see for some, and Pre-pay is becoming a no-no until I see an EP.

 

 

Maybe that’s a thread to research on its own.. how many locos we buy, and % new, s/h, or spares/repair jobs... how many we say good bye to is another measure.. I know less leave me than arrive but I give as well as get... but everyone that leaves me goes to someone else... I think I’ve only ever thrown about 4 in the bin and trust me there’s was nothing to salvage, not even scrap for a model wagon.

Edited June 20, 2018 by adb968008

[JSpencer]

You could well be right, but it’s quantifying that.

 

 

I have changed my buying patterns the last two years though:

 

1. I’ve started to refrain Pre-orders where delivery is >1 year, as price is never honoured any more.

2. with raising prices, and increasingly longer shelf times leading to discounting down the road I have started deferring to buying multiples upon release... i’ll Take the “a-list”, but now the “b-list” can speculate unless the jungle drums are too great to risk ignoring... however that too can be misleading.. one manufacturer falsely claimed a near sell out last year.. its discounted heavily now and still in stock.. I won’t roll over twice with that company on that claim.

3. Thirdly where a tooling is a replacement of something I have multiples of, I’ve started to pass by as cost to replace vs new “never before done” toolings is my priority. (I’ve not ordered Dapol 43xx/61xx or Terriers to date).

4. with price rises i’m Generally not out of pocket with the older ones. (In the old days a new tooling would devalue the older one creating an incentive to clear your decks and avoid losing out)...I’ve less incentive to ditch (lesson was learned with the Duchess, I went with the LN but have drawn the line there since the recent price rises kicked in).

5. I’ve become cautious on commissions, some have been disappointing either in Quality, Running or Detail, so i’m more of a Wait and see for some, and Pre-pay is becoming a no-no until I see an EP.

 

 

 

8 prepaid! I have 2 (Bulleid diesel and a Single) and would be hard pressed to think of other classes leading to 8 (D6xx maybe).

 

My buying patterns have changed to be similar to yours, with one minor exception in that I will be getting a few Terriers but not to replace 1 for 1, the 8 I already own.

[Caledonian]

Something which may be significant here is the decision not to renew the Thomas the Tank Engine licence, taken together with that remark about the problems caused by seasonal [ie; christmas] sales, it suggests that Hornby may be divesting themselves of the ancient kids stuff to concentrate on hi-spec models

[adb968008]

8 prepaid! I have 2 (Bulleid diesel and a Single) and would be hard pressed to think of other classes leading to 8 (D6xx maybe).

 

My buying patterns have changed to be similar to yours, with one minor exception in that I will be getting a few Terriers but not to replace 1 for 1, the 8 I already own.

Terriers I’ve got to decide on, I know they will be good but replacing all mine would bad.

The Model Rail E1 however May initially override it... that said when an EP appears for the Terrier i’m sure i’ll get sucked into the vortex.

 

What I would like is some suitable 4wheel LBSC coaches or a push pull to go with all the LBSC Terriers I have, and given how many thousands of Terriers are out there, I might not be alone on that request.

Edited June 20, 2018 by adb968008

[BWsTrains]

But, if you were in a club, you'd know lots more.

Send me the airfare and I'll come along, I've no real interest in going to a club mainly with enthusiasts for Australian Railways. My neighbour here is a member, I talk to him regularly so I know my options.

 

As said it was a Straw Man # which is purely designed to tease out other's views and opinions which it has done admirably! That seems to have been missed along the way and I claimed zero knowledge, a perfectly reasonable point to start such an exercise.

 

# From Wikipedia   "A straw-man proposal is a brainstormed simple draft proposal intended to generate discussion of its disadvantages and to provoke the generation of new and better proposals."

 

Guys, not much point in critiscising me for things I've fully acknowledged up front. It was designed as a starting point to better refine data. I'd say mission accomplished

 

Colin

[robmcg]

You are slightly off the point here about who buys what.

 

It is collectors who probably make up 75% of all sales of model locomotives. Not modellers who buy the occasional "out of period/location" anomalies because they are shiny and pretty; These are people who's hobby is collecting!

 

'Collecting' includes those who buy engines for a projected model railway as well as those who have a functioning model railway, apart from the many like me who may have a diorama and/or small scene, and those who also like me appreciate the beauty of a well-made model, and who own more models than some think logical.

 

Alas the word 'collector' has for some the same pejorative overtone as 'box opener', when used at times by 'serious modellers' whoever they may be, and reminds me of the pejorative 'anorak' word in association with trainspotters through the years.

 

Such are the pitfalls of trying to categorise people who like model trains.  Most of us are old enough and wise enough I hope to have learned that aeroplanes are watched by countless people for pleasure, as are ships, and cars, don't get me started on the subject of 'rational'.    

Edited June 20, 2018 by robmcg

[JSpencer]

Terriers I’ve got to decide on, I know they will be good but replacing all mine would bad.

The Model Rail E1 however May initially override it... that said when an EP appears for the Terrier i’m sure i’ll get sucked into the vortex.

 

What I would like is some suitable 4wheel LBSC coaches or a push pull to go with all the LBSC Terriers I have, and given how many thousands of Terriers are out there, I might not be alone on that request.

 

The Hornby Terriers are sort of hybrid A1 A1X but for some locos of the class, that is close enough. For Example Hornby Bodiam is pretty close to as preserved. The new Rails Dapol Bodiam is a pure A1 with condensor pipes as she was in 1905. I"m happy with as preserved and won't replace it.

 

I ummed and rrred but I'll go for Stepney in her full A1X BR guise as the Hornby one does not come close. I hope they will do Fenchurch in A1 guise plus condensor pipes like they did in O gauge and - as I'm SECR -I'll buy that simply because it is SECR as the Hornby one is miles out. 2 of the old 8 will be sold off but that leaves 3 KESR as preserved (at some point in preservation), Bluebells Stepney in LBSCR colours, Fenchurch in BR (neither correct in terms of sandboxes but the new pair correct this and reverse the liveries) and the IOW BR one (surprisingly close with correct sandboxes).

 

Of course all of this is my preferences for anything SECR, Bluebell and 80s KESR (which means I skip the GWR engines on the latter). There will be one E1 supplementing these but whether it will be the IOW BR one to go with Calbourne O2 and the A1X or just plain mainland BR, I've yet to decide and have 2 years to think about it.

However other all new model reboots won't be replacing existing ones unless tied to my SR influences and even then only in limited numbers. For example, I will be getting just one Nelson and keep the older Bachmann ones. The new Nelson with cover details the older Bachmann ones do not have. After all the recent releases, I'm not short of express power, like I was when I brought the Bachmann ones, which were by far the best SR express loco n their time and don't look out of place on the layout today.

[LBRJ]

'Collecting' includes those who buy engines for a projected model railway as well as those who have a functioning model railway, apart from the many like me who may have a diorama and/or small scene, and those who also like me appreciate the beauty of a well-made model, and who own more models than some think logical.

 

Alas the word 'collector' has for some the same pejorative overtone as 'box opener', when used at times by 'serious modellers' whoever they may be, and reminds me of the pejorative 'anorak' word in association with trainspotters through the years.

 

Such are the pitfalls of trying to categorise people who like model trains.  Most of us are old enough and wise enough I hope to have learned that aeroplanes are watched by countless people for pleasure, as are ships, and cars, don't get me started on the subject of 'rational'.    

 

There is no meaning that is pejorative here, we are talking purely of sales and to whom those sales are made.

 

In that sense of sales only we should all thank the collective body of Collectors, not give disrespect to them; It is they who make the hobby of  having and enjoying "working model railways" accessible to the huge majority of people who just want to run a few trains around.

 

I'm guessing a bit here, but if Hornby (or whoever else) only ever sold model locomotives to those who run them, regularly, through some sort of modelled scenery, the typical unit cost would be more like £5/600 a go.

[Andy Hayter]

Terriers I’ve got to decide on, I know they will be good but replacing all mine would bad.

The Model Rail E1 however May initially override it... that said when an EP appears for the Terrier i’m sure i’ll get sucked into the vortex.

 

What I would like is some suitable 4wheel LBSC coaches or a push pull to go with all the LBSC Terriers I have, and given how many thousands of Terriers are out there, I might not be alone on that request.

 

http://www.rmweb.co.uk/community/index.php?/topic/130588-great-southern-railway-fictitious-laser-cutting-lbscr-coaches-coaching-stock/page-20

 

If you are prepared to do some building, these will fill the gap very well and very cheaply.

[The Stationmaster]

Perhaps an easier measure of hobby size is to look at magazine circulation figures.

I doubt 300 or even 3000 serious modellers is enough to sustain a monthly magazine.

 

Similarly it is less likely that non-serious modellers would subscribe to the magazine either, and finally I wouldn’t imagine all but a handful of serious modellers would be subscribing to several modelling magazines at the same time. (I have more engines than you can imagine and buy more than average by a margin.. so I must be hardcore, let alone serious, but I only subscribed just recently to BRM, and only other mags are Steam Railway and Back Track.

 

Quoting numbers...

http://www.rmweb.co.uk/community/index.php?/topic/132066-railway-modeller-april-2018/&do=findComment&comment=3079170

I would wager there’s at least 30k-50k “serious” modellers out there who fit the 4-6 locos a year category, and probably 3x the number of occasional modellers who are in the hobby somewhere, buying 1 or 2.

 

It’s worth noting there are 33k members on Rmweb.

 

If 10% of the serious modellers, and 2% of occasional modellers buy a particular class release (across all liveries/variants offered) that would give a market size of 3000 serious +(1500 to 2000 occasional) = circa 5000 market size of a class prototype... + those who buy more that 1 of that release, plus the hardcore...

 

we could ascertain the “hardcore element” of the hobby who are serious collectors, that would be the top 10% of the hobby.. approx 3000-5000 people who buy many more than 6 a year. if just 5% of that bracket buy into a model that’s 150-300..how big is a limited edition these days ? -300-500 ..meaning half of that limited run is low risk.

 

How can I relate this to reality.. we are often quoted numbers of 6000 for a prototype, with numbers falling towards 3000 at higher end or niche model priced releases.

 

I have a feeling that your numbers probably aren't too far from the truth although we'll probably never find out.  In two cases I'm aware of they are well out (on the plus side) but in both cases those were 'multiple units' and there was in one case realism on the part of the manufacturer and in the other probably considerable caution (until the company did a second run and grossly over-estimated demand probably leaving some unsold at retailers to this day - no prizes for guessing who it was).

 

The simple fact, as you've covered in greater detail in your subsequent post, is that a large number of loco models and some of coaching stock are bought by 'collectors' although that word covers a wide range of purchasing patterns from those who will, say, buy every Class 37 that ever appears 'because they like them', to those who buy multiple numbers and types of pannier tank 'because they're what ever Western layout needs' (even if it isn't a model of Old Oak Common). to the tiny (I think) band of R number collectors who buy everything Hornby turn out to make sure they have one of every catalogue R number.

 

Some years ago I stopped in my tracks and wondered what the heck I was doing buying some well off piste locos and duly changed my buying habits to concentrate basically on what is relevant to my geographical modelling theme and relatively close to it, if not exact, and certainly just about excusable for a slightly flexible era.  So I don't 'need' or even want a Heljan 47XX but I'm still attracted by some of the unusual and totally out of scene items such as the NCIM Stirling Single.  So I, no doubt like many others, still go for a bit of collecting of things that I like although they can't be explained away layout wise, but it's much reduced compared with what it once was.

 

And herein lies part of the quandary facing Hornby.  Price increases coming at the time of massive cutback from deep discounting created a double whammy for the 'nice to have' market, through in general economic woes (although Hornby hadn't been too badly hit by those) and the emergence of new providers of r-t-r locos and stock in the 4mm market and they have faced a completely new market situation,  Not at all helped by supply problems what they are really facing is a move away form the good old staples that will sell in umpteen thousands over the years to one where those have become a decreasing part of the market and what they need to do is adapt to that change.  

 

What LCD says in the statement indicates that he at least in the company recognises that sort of change in the market and that he he needs a marketing arm which is able to cater for it and exploit it - that I see as a very positive statement.

[ejstubbs]

Something which may be significant here is the decision not to renew the Thomas the Tank Engine licence, taken together with that remark about the problems caused by seasonal [ie; christmas] sales, it suggests that Hornby may be divesting themselves of the ancient kids stuff to concentrate on hi-spec models

 

That, plus the cost of the licence which was likely difficult to justify when the business was planning for a period of 'austerity'.  (IIRC Hornby's announcement that they were letting the TTTE licence go said pretty much that, reading between the lines.)

Edited June 21, 2018 by ejstubbs

[Clearwater]

Mike

 

I think your post highlights the challenge to sales. What makes a “non-collector” buy outside their area of interest? How good does it have to be? I’d suggested earlier some ideas (P2 bugatti being a prime example.). Stirling Single and the dyno car pass those tests. I’d also suggest The Great Bear, Big Bertha as the type of thing that make people say that’s so good, I have to have one. It’s not an updated 14xx, 61xx, J94, Manor, 63xx etc etc. However great a model can be produced, they simply don’t have the cachet of some of those icons.

 

David

[Legend]

Something in Caledonian Blue . Blue locos always sell well per Simon Kohler. I presume he meant steam ones , as they don't seem to be producing a lot of BR Blue diesels.

[rovex]

Now, I don't buy just becuase it quaint or collectable. To justify it to myself it really has to have a context in relation to my forever delayed Western Region layout 

 

I will bend the boundaries - so if its Great Western but never ran in the midlands I'll still buy it (rule one, after all), but I haven't bought any out of region locos, but I have considered the odd one for cross country services.

 

But no Stirling single, no City 4-4-0, no duchess, Clan, A1 to A4 or DoG

 

Nor can I justify to myself buying upgraded versions of old models.

 

I wasn't even going to buy an upgraded Castle or King. I had plenty of the older versions. I'm not one to rush off and buy an upgrade. 

 

When I did buy new Castles and Kings it was on ebay and at a great discount to the RRP. 

 

Would I buy a new manor - probably but only because the current mechanism is dreadful and not DCC ready. I would buy a new 94xx because the Lima one IS so poor. But I can't see myself buying Dapols 61xx or the 43xx (sorry Dapol).

 

What would really interest me is the classes that haven't been done before. So I have bought 47xx (I can justify it on those summer excursions), and a Bachman 64xx and even Kernow's 1361.

 

I would love to see an Aberdare or further versions of the long lived 4-4-0 if only so that I didn't have to struggle fixing the old K's one bought on ebay.

 

Oh and just to prove myself a liar I would buy a model of Lion, provided I could get some "Thunderbolt" nameplates 

[Joseph_Pestell]

Many good points in this thread. And, as I said, not jokingly, earlier, if Hornby had read some of the previous Hornby threads on RMWeb they might not be where they are.

 

But in reality, this decline had been going on for many years due, mainly, to a basic failure in having a coherent marketing and branding plan. It just went from bad to worse with Hornby sabotaging their distribution network.

 

I am fairly amazed that Hornby got their last lot of financing against such a bad set of results and balance sheet. They really are in last chance saloon now.

 

Ideally private finance would allow them to leave the stock market and restart with a completely new business plan. Probably still just enough value left in brands and tooling to do that. But not if they make further losses.

[Clearwater]

Ideally private finance would allow them to leave the stock market and restart with a completely new business plan. Probably still just enough value left in brands and tooling to do that. But not if they make further losses.

I don’t think being listed or not makes much difference given Phoenix has 70odd%. Whether listed or not, the key is whether their lender is satisfied that they are progressing back to profitability. Looking at the figures, I too am amazed that they got finance. I think it will be very heavily Covenanted and if there is a hiccup, the lender may well look to enforce and sell stock/tools/Brands to recoup their cash.

 

David

[TheSignalEngineer]

Some years ago I stopped in my tracks and wondered what the heck I was doing buying some well off piste locos and duly changed my buying habits to concentrate basically on what is relevant to my geographical modelling theme and relatively close to it, if not exact, and certainly just about excusable for a slightly flexible era. So I don't 'need' or even want a Heljan 47XX but I'm still attracted by some of the unusual and totally out of scene items such as the NCIM Stirling Single. So I, no doubt like many others, still go for a bit of collecting of things that I like although they can't be explained away layout wise, but it's much reduced compared with what it once.

Likewise Mike. I can have about 3 locos on view on the layout and six in the fiddle yard. Given I have about 40 that visired the area I don't really need any more (except a Midland 2F 0-6-0) but could be tempted into a 43xx or Manor.

My nice to have but out of context list is about six-strong at the moment but I probably won't buy unless I decide to do the Longbridge USA tank I saw around 1955.

On the Blue Box front they have missed out several times because of my kit building and conversions, e.g. the 74xx.