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I suspect the issue with the class 91 is the need to consider it part of a train, which increase the tooling costs, buying costs, and risks given that it is overhead electric.  This one might be better to wait a few years and allow the class 87, 90, 80x, and perhaps a 92 build up a market with overhead layouts.

I think the Hornby Class 91 and Mk IV’s have sold quite well considering there very basic and to some degree not much improvement over “toy trains” against true models.

 

With the introduction of the 800’s on the ECML and rundown of the fleet, the Mk IV’s are going to be spread about over the country (awaiting confirmation that they will be used on the Holyhead-Cardiff’s as there disabled compliant) and the rumour of the stock and 91’s on the WCML on the slower Euston-Manchester and Blackpool’s, a modern model of these still might be worth considering.

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Even if the Mk4s never get distributed it is still worth doing a quality model (says the person not risking their own money).  You have a number of choices already (Intercity, GNER, LNER, etc.) but as I said the sticking point is the overhead wires.  But given some time as more models come out - I would think an appropriate EMU might be the next best choice - then the layouts will appear creating a market more suitable for the expense of tooling the 91/Mk4 combination.

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Mod major locomotives have been done already.

 

Perhaps so, but not forgetting of course that current versions of the 37, 47, 40, 45 etc are all generally a bit long-in-the-tooth now, so plenty of scope for improvement.

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Perhaps so, but not forgetting of course that current versions of the 37, 47, 40, 45 etc are all generally a bit long-in-the-tooth now, so plenty of scope for improvement.

But I wonder if sticking with this generation of diesels wouldn't be a good idea.

 

1) Those people who already have them have probably upgraded them so much that they wouldn't want to part with hundreds of pounds for a "new" one.

 

2) Those diesels are seemingly universally loved by people of a certain age. If you want to get younger people interested, modern image is the way to go.

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But I wonder if sticking with this generation of diesels wouldn't be a good idea.

 

1) Those people who already have them have probably upgraded them so much that they wouldn't want to part with hundreds of pounds for a "new" one.

 

2) Those diesels are seemingly universally loved by people of a certain age. If you want to get younger people interested, modern image is the way to go.

 

1) Despite what the doomsayers say, there are new people entering the hobby all of the time and not all of them are interesting in the latest thing.  As for the existing people, many of them won't have upgraded them and thus many will quite happily through the existing model onto ebay and buy a new model (see the frequent posts about replacing existing fleets of models whenever a new announcement is made).

 

2) The hobby is a funny thing.  Yes, many want to model what they grew up with, but for many there is also a need for operational interest.  That frequently results in people moving back in time, when there was more variety and more happening on the railway than just multiple units running back and forth.

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But I wonder if sticking with this generation of diesels wouldn't be a good idea.1) Those people who already have them have probably upgraded them so much that they wouldn't want to part with hundreds of pounds for a "new" one.2) Those diesels are seemingly universally loved by people of a certain age. If you want to get younger people interested, modern image is the way to go.

I think the hobby is very much starting into 3 distinct post war areas...

 

Steam era, is was and will be an area of interest, but it’s practioners are not as many as were.

BR Modern era is a smaller group but quite definitely exists

Privatisation era is still a reasonable sized group.

 

Today’s privatisation era has as much overlap as steam had to modern, indeed many classes overlap all 3 today... (just last Friday a train load of class 20s navigated south London, and 37s are very much among us.

 

This year we’ve had announced or seen delivered new classes 66, 68,87,90. The 70 is not that old and an 88 can’t be far away.

Privatisation era locos are well covered, the class 67 being long in the tooth.

 

In the BR Modern era, Classes 20, 31, 50 are the older tools still in the shop, and further back class 55 is quite old too.

 

I think Bachmann have safely deterred attacks on classes 37 & 47 by volumes produced for a few more years.

 

So I think the road map for modern image choices is clear, the manufacturers have to determine which will be most popular and I think I’ve seen one of those targets scanned already in 2018.

 

I have of course omitted one class, which so far is unmodelled, and didn’t Rapido recently said they are planning a class thus far unmodelled.. and it’s one i’m Sure everyone would like and is right inline with that Rapidos pattern for unusual... but so far no one has mentioned it in this thread..., but it’s one that I would think ticks all Rapidos boxes... class 89..

Edited by adb968008
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I think the hobby is very much starting into 3 distinct post war areas...

 

Steam era, is was and will be an area of interest, but it’s practioners are not as many as were.

BR Modern era is a smaller group but quite definitely exists

Privatisation era is still a reasonable sized group.

 

Today’s privatisation era has as much overlap as steam had to modern, indeed many classes overlap all 3 today... (just last Friday a train load of class 20s navigated south London, and 37s are very much among us.

 

This year we’ve had announced or seen delivered new classes 66, 68,87,90. The 70 is not that old and an 88 can’t be far away.

Privatisation era locos are well covered, the class 67 being long in the tooth.

 

In the BR Modern era, Classes 20, 31, 50 are the older tools still in the shop, and further back class 55 is quite old too.

 

I think Bachmann have safely deterred attacks on classes 37 & 47 by volumes produced for a few more years.

 

So I think the road map for modern image choices is clear, the manufacturers have to determine which will be most popular and I think I’ve seen one of those targets scanned already in 2018.

 

I have of course omitted one class, which so far is unmodelled, and didn’t Rapido recently said they are planning a class thus far unmodelled.. and it’s one i’m Sure everyone would like and is right inline with that Rapidos pattern for unusual... but so far no one has mentioned it in this thread..., but it’s one that I would think ticks all Rapidos boxes... class 89..

 

A one-off with a short service career and an overhead electric. Surely ticks three boxes in the 'reasons NOT to do it' column! The big problem with modern traction is that anything worth trying has been done. Those that proved to be good choices have been either overdone or redone, sometimes more than once. The current ability to produce shorter runs and sell at higher prices has increased the potential for 25kV ac electrics so if the market would swallow a £300 Class 89, then, yes, it might be worth doing. However, what Rapido really needs is a high volume item on which they can get a reasonable margin and I can't think of anything, steam, diesel or electric which offers that potential that hasn't already been done. (CJL)

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I think the Hornby Class 91 and Mk IV’s have sold quite well considering there very basic and to some degree not much improvement over “toy trains” against true models.

With the introduction of the 800’s on the ECML and rundown of the fleet, the Mk IV’s are going to be spread about over the country (awaiting confirmation that they will be used on the Holyhead-Cardiff’s as there disabled compliant) and the rumour of the stock and 91’s on the WCML on the slower Euston-Manchester and Blackpool’s, a modern model of these still might be worth considering.

What are the slower Euston-Manchester services 2 hours 10 rather than 2 hours 8??

 

It's a premier route on the WCML, why would Virgin drop the Pendolino for a 91 and mk4s

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What are the slower Euston-Manchester services 2 hours 10 rather than 2 hours 8??

 

It's a premier route on the WCML, why would Virgin drop the Pendolino for a 91 and mk4s

 

The Mk4+91s are to be used by the new open access operator Great North Western Railway owned by Alliance (the Arriva/DB company behind Grand Central) between London and Blackpool from September 2019, timed at 110mph.  Nothing to do with Virgin, or going to Manchester.

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A one-off with a short service career and an overhead electric. Surely ticks three boxes in the 'reasons NOT to do it' column! The big problem with modern traction is that anything worth trying has been done. Those that proved to be good choices have been either overdone or redone, sometimes more than once. The current ability to produce shorter runs and sell at higher prices has increased the potential for 25kV ac electrics so if the market would swallow a £300 Class 89, then, yes, it might be worth doing. However, what Rapido really needs is a high volume item on which they can get a reasonable margin and I can't think of anything, steam, diesel or electric which offers that potential that hasn't already been done. (CJL)

 

Chris, I know you have a dim view of AC Electric models but can we nail this "electrics don't sell" inference down in it's coffin?  If electrics do not sell, then why have  Hornby, a company skating on financial very thin ice, spent well over six figures producing a definitive and brilliant model of the Class 87?  Surely given they already had the geriatric Limby Class 87 in their range, and given their financial situation, they would have committed the investment money into some new steam outline job, of which there are plenty of subjects to choose from still, to milk even more grey pounds out of the collector market before they all croak, and given their mixed attitude to modern subjects, kept on with the existing Limby model which is fully depreciated by now?  The fact they allocated scarce finance to this new 87 suggests to me that they think there is money to be made from AC electrics  Similarly Bachmann, who let's not forget made a trading loss last year, and who should know one way or another as to whether a modern standard AC electric can sell having made the Class 85, have the new Class 90 on final approach and which looks like it will give the Hornby 87 a run for it's money in terms of quality.  Again, given their production woes and need to turn themselves into profit again (although those two things seem to be linked), you would have expected them to either keep hold of the cash or use it to retool some of their older models, including steam outline models like the Manor or 43xx, if they were not convinced that the 90 will sell and they should have had a big clue with their Class 85 model - which incidentally is reappearing in the range in weathered finish TOPS blue which suggests to me that Bachmann were more than happy with sales of 85026.  Two big companies, each with their own financial and production problems, have both seen fit to commit probably over a quarter of a million between them into bringing new AC electric models to market and regardless of whether modern production techniques and smaller batch production make the margins better or not, as commercial businesses, they would not have pumped that investment into new model electric locos if there had been a quicker, easier profit to be made elsewhere.

 

I do agree with you though that the 89 probably would not make the best launch model for a company launching itself as direct manufacturer.  Despite what a lot of people think, the 89 was used but was overtaken by a change of specification by the ECML electrification team and as a one off, soon suffered from spares issues.  nevertheless it did see use, and GNER even bought it back from preservation for refurbishment and use with Mk4 stock for a while, so the loco has carried BR Executive, BR Intercity Swallow and GNER liveries.  What's more, the AC Locomotive Group are restoring it back to main line use, for which there is a demand, witness how often 86 259 "Les Ross" is used to haul the non-steam leg of steam excursions.  Despite all that, I think the 89 would be better suited as a retailer commission, and I wouldn't be surprised if it is already being lined up as one somewhere, although I expect if the ACLG do succeed in getting the Badger back on the main line it'll be more likely to get a model then.

 

Where I disagree is the view that the diesel market couldn't support a Rapido model of something already out there.  Take for example the Class 47.  Britain's most numerous class of diesel loco, seen everywhere from Scotland to Penzance, Wales to east Anglia, and still in use today.  More varieties than Heinz, more colours than a kindergarten crayon box yet we still don't have a model that people can agree is the definitive version.  Heljan's otherwise good product was in need of a trip to Slimming World, the otherwise good Bachmann model has it's own flaws, Aunty Vi has gone into a retirement home and Hornby's models are definitely for the Railroad market.  I would argue there is a gap for a Sutton loco Works style model to capture the high end market, after all, it could be argued that the Bachmann models filled the need for baby Sulzers yet Phil Sutton seems to have made a mark and is filling a market need.  I'm sure that if Rapido were to do a 47 to their standards it could become a good seller.  The same goes for the 37, or even the Deltic.  

 

The UK market seems to be quite strong and able to support higher price, more detailed models to a level that provides an acceptable return on investment, as well as the lower priced, more general models where people will accept some compromises to get a good price point.  I think there is room for Rapido to come in with a duplicated competing diesel to their standards especially one as widespread, long lived and popular as say a 47.

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Chris, I know you have a dim view of AC Electric models but can we nail this "electrics don't sell" inference down in it's coffin?  If electrics do not sell, then why have  Hornby, a company skating on financial very thin ice, spent well over six figures producing a definitive and brilliant model of the Class 87?  Surely given they already had the geriatric Limby Class 87 in their range, and given their financial situation, they would have committed the investment money into some new steam outline job, of which there are plenty of subjects to choose from still, to milk even more grey pounds out of the collector market before they all croak, and given their mixed attitude to modern subjects, kept on with the existing Limby model which is fully depreciated by now?  The fact they allocated scarce finance to this new 87 suggests to me that they think there is money to be made from AC electrics  Similarly Bachmann, who let's not forget made a trading loss last year, and who should know one way or another as to whether a modern standard AC electric can sell having made the Class 85, have the new Class 90 on final approach and which looks like it will give the Hornby 87 a run for it's money in terms of quality.  Again, given their production woes and need to turn themselves into profit again (although those two things seem to be linked), you would have expected them to either keep hold of the cash or use it to retool some of their older models, including steam outline models like the Manor or 43xx, if they were not convinced that the 90 will sell and they should have had a big clue with their Class 85 model - which incidentally is reappearing in the range in weathered finish TOPS blue which suggests to me that Bachmann were more than happy with sales of 85026.  Two big companies, each with their own financial and production problems, have both seen fit to commit probably over a quarter of a million between them into bringing new AC electric models to market and regardless of whether modern production techniques and smaller batch production make the margins better or not, as commercial businesses, they would not have pumped that investment into new model electric locos if there had been a quicker, easier profit to be made elsewhere.

 

I do agree with you though that the 89 probably would not make the best launch model for a company launching itself as direct manufacturer.  Despite what a lot of people think, the 89 was used but was overtaken by a change of specification by the ECML electrification team and as a one off, soon suffered from spares issues.  nevertheless it did see use, and GNER even bought it back from preservation for refurbishment and use with Mk4 stock for a while, so the loco has carried BR Executive, BR Intercity Swallow and GNER liveries.  What's more, the AC Locomotive Group are restoring it back to main line use, for which there is a demand, witness how often 86 259 "Les Ross" is used to haul the non-steam leg of steam excursions.  Despite all that, I think the 89 would be better suited as a retailer commission, and I wouldn't be surprised if it is already being lined up as one somewhere, although I expect if the ACLG do succeed in getting the Badger back on the main line it'll be more likely to get a model then.

 

Where I disagree is the view that the diesel market couldn't support a Rapido model of something already out there.  Take for example the Class 47.  Britain's most numerous class of diesel loco, seen everywhere from Scotland to Penzance, Wales to east Anglia, and still in use today.  More varieties than Heinz, more colours than a kindergarten crayon box yet we still don't have a model that people can agree is the definitive version.  Heljan's otherwise good product was in need of a trip to Slimming World, the otherwise good Bachmann model has it's own flaws, Aunty Vi has gone into a retirement home and Hornby's models are definitely for the Railroad market.  I would argue there is a gap for a Sutton loco Works style model to capture the high end market, after all, it could be argued that the Bachmann models filled the need for baby Sulzers yet Phil Sutton seems to have made a mark and is filling a market need.  I'm sure that if Rapido were to do a 47 to their standards it could become a good seller.  The same goes for the 37, or even the Deltic.  

 

The UK market seems to be quite strong and able to support higher price, more detailed models to a level that provides an acceptable return on investment, as well as the lower priced, more general models where people will accept some compromises to get a good price point.  I think there is room for Rapido to come in with a duplicated competing diesel to their standards especially one as widespread, long lived and popular as say a 47.

 

The fifth sentence of my comment suggests exactly why Hornby has done the 87. Because the market is now small enough and concentrated enough that a manufacturer can make money on a short run sold at a much higher price. I'm not saying that the market couldn't support yet another Class 37 or 47 model. What I'm saying is that I wouldn't be willing to put a whopping investment into finding out, and I certainly hope that Rapido doesn't. Rapido has introduced its Prime Mover range (a simplified model aimed at getting a better pricing structure so that it can go out through retailers) and dropped it after just one model. It launched its Icons of Steam range with the Royal Hudson, which has yet to go into production, and already there is a suggestion that the range will be dropped or spread over a much longer timescale because the overall viability of selling small numbers of higher-priced models is in doubt. Phil Sutton is a one-man band working for himself in a tiny niche of a niche market. I'm not privy to his production arrangements but I doubt he has a comparable operation to that of Rapido. Rapido has factories in China  producing for markets in Canada, the USA and Britain. It is also producing models for Realtrack, RevolutioN, Locomotion Models and Model Rail. Rapido is now a small company, directly employing around a dozen people in Canada and providing work for lots more in China. While those who are seeking the ultimate ready-to-run 37 or 47 or whatever, would no doubt rush to buy a Rapido model, the 'average Joe' will be more familiar with the name of Bachmann or Hornby (and be more likely to see those names) than Rapido. With short runs and high prices Rapido might make a go of it but for every one person on RMweb willing to pay top notch prices for top notch models, there are ten who will say they aren't buying until it's in the bargain bin. Read the thread about Heljan's 15% discount rule or Hornby's 10% and you'll see what I mean. What Rapido needs for a British launch is a dead cert - and there simply aren't any. (CJL)

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The LMS. 21 could be an 08 body swap?

 

Mod major locomotives have been done already.

I take it you meant the class 11 shunter. Although it might seem just a case of a new body on an 08 chassis the larger wheels means the body would require lowering and that causes difficulty with the different cab roof profile and rear window positions, and details like rectangular side panels becoming too square. In other words the prototype's distinguishing features become less noticeable than the compromises on the model to fit the chassis. There was a brave attempt of a conversion detailed on RMweb a few years ago that explained the problems better than I have, and it ended in failure after several months of expert modelling.

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What Rapido needs for a British launch is a dead cert - and there simply aren't any. (CJL)

I don't wish to sound like I'm being difficult but surely that's quite a downcast view to take? Oxford rail entered the UK market not all that long ago, with a loco I wouldn't have called a home run and we can all agree it wasn't executed as well as it could have been. They persevered though and are building up their range (the flaws of the Dean goods and Mk3s aside)

What makes it more difficult for Rapido? They have proven they can manufacture to a higher quality and have arguably as much experience in the UK market.

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I don't wish to sound like I'm being difficult but surely that's quite a downcast view to take? Oxford rail entered the UK market not all that long ago, with a loco I wouldn't have called a home run and we can all agree it wasn't executed as well as it could have been. They persevered though and are building up their range (the flaws of the Dean goods and Mk3s aside)

What makes it more difficult for Rapido? They have proven they can manufacture to a higher quality and have arguably as much experience in the UK market.

 

I'd be delighted to take a more optimistic view if I could think of one. The Oxford Rail team has a great deal more experience of the UK market than Rapido does. Rapido's only experience to date has been as a manufacturer for third parties. The likes of Realtrack, RevolutioN, Locomotion and Model Rail have chosen the prototype and taken most of the risk that goes with a 'wrong' choice. (CJL)

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Their rail range is quite small and recent however I can't argue that they have been in t the UK market as a whole for a good deal longer. I think that Rapido has the manufacturing experience and certainly the proven quality to make a good start even if the prototype isn't necessarily a sure hit.

In a good spirited way Chris, I hope you're wrong ;)

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I'd be delighted to take a more optimistic view if I could think of one. The Oxford Rail team has a great deal more experience of the UK market than Rapido does. Rapido's only experience to date has been as a manufacturer for third parties. The likes of Realtrack, RevolutioN, Locomotion and Model Rail have chosen the prototype and taken most of the risk that goes with a 'wrong' choice. (CJL)

The post at the beginning of this thread suggests that they are entering the market with a new diesel locomotive. I remember the outline pictures we had a few years ago as a hint of what they were producing. I’m still not sure what that was all about. As far as I know nothing emerged, so I’m slightly cynical . However I’m really surprised at this negativity. Everyone says Jason Shron is a shrewd businessman and he indeed seems to run a successful operation, albeit U.K. releases have so far been commissioned by someone else. I think he is prone to bouts of self indulgence, like the Birmingham bus , that I really can’t see being a volume seller, but then he may have costed to be successful with low sales. He’s certainly enthusiastic , knows what he wants . I’ll bet he is as experienced on British Trains as Canadian or US ones. In visits to the U.K. he shows a love of British trains . Are we really saying that Jason Shron and Bill Schneider lack the experience to determine what would be a good potential seller ?

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Their rail range is quite small and recent however I can't argue that they have been in t the UK market as a whole for a good deal longer. I think that Rapido has the manufacturing experience and certainly the proven quality to make a good start even if the prototype isn't necessarily a sure hit.

In a good spirited way Chris, I hope you're wrong ;)

 

I hope I'm wrong, too, but with each new model that's announced, the choice of likely good choices gets smaller and once you're looking at re-doing models like the Class 47 and 37, you're hostage to whether enough people will upgrade to your new model. (CJL)

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I don't wish to sound like I'm being difficult but surely that's quite a downcast view to take? Oxford rail entered the UK market not all that long ago, with a loco I wouldn't have called a home run and we can all agree it wasn't executed as well as it could have been. They persevered though and are building up their range (the flaws of the Dean goods and Mk3s aside)

What makes it more difficult for Rapido? They have proven they can manufacture to a higher quality and have arguably as much experience in the UK market.

 

Rapido produces incredibly accurate models at the commensurate high price. Oxford has, very sensibly and successfully, produced at a much lower price point. The trouble is, you can't have Rapido quality and features and Oxford prices.

 

Rapido also relies on pre-orders for sales. Jason knows full well that this means every model that comes out has to be right, even in the opinion of the pickiest critics. One miss-step and the whole business model will suffer as people won't want to pre-order. Building up the range isn't an option. 

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The big problem with modern traction is that anything worth trying has been done. Those that proved to be good choices have been either overdone or redone, sometimes more than once.

 

And...

 

what Rapido really needs is a high volume item on which they can get a reasonable margin and I can't think of anything, steam, diesel or electric which offers that potential that hasn't already been done. (CJL)

So the implication is...

 

A. Do nothing and don’t make anything.

 

However that’s clearly not the choice made, so the next options are:

 

B. Duplicate something.

C. Do something not done before.

 

I agree the 89 is a risk, like 71000 and the P2, however the other options of duplication any less riskier.. ?

I prefer option C. But agree those viable options are limited and aside of an 89 or a multiple unit there’s not a lot left.

 

The 89 isn’t as risky as believed, it’s had several liveries, several periods of running, on WCML and ECML and a likely return in the future. It’s run with all kinds of stock and been an open day favourite. It’s not a long term model, but it’s one which several variations could be made in a batch method.

 

When you look at AC electrics,much like steam loco overhauls, it keeps coming back, which means it has support more than any other AC class (including EMUs) that’s out of service...

a 2019 return is possible, who knows it might be in GBRF next.

 

If the hobby trade was to be listened to, right now the least risky model would be a 24/25 as everyone’s doing one.

My bets are we will see a 55 this year from someone already, so..

Other than an 89.. a class 01/2/6/10/11/12/13/30/74/82/83/84... take your pick from that unattractive lot.

 

To me it leaves a 30/31 not a bad choice otherwise, and a very un-represented class in OO form in the last 30 years, despite there being 4 tooling attempts at it, and gives a tag to the “class not yet produced” line that’s been suggested.

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The advantage of Rapido's business model is that it allows them to dip a toe in the water with relatively low risk. Obviously, the initial development costs have to be covered, and that is a potential loss if the project has to be aborted at any stage. But the one thing they're not going to be left with is a pile of unsold stock. 

 

The most important question any business has to ask when considering a new project is "How much can we afford to lose if the project fails?". And, unless you are desperate (or foolish, or both), you don't start the project unless you can absorb the loss if it does fail.

 

The worst case scenario for Rapido is that they announce a model and do the initial development work, but not enough pre-orders materialise to justify continuing with it. If they've done their sums properly, they'll know how much they stand to lose if that happens, and they'll also know how much of a hit that would be to their bottom line. They should also have a pretty shrewd idea of how likely that is, of course, but their accountants won't be interested in the opinions of the development team, they will just want to know the numbers.

 

The fact that they've already gone as far as setting up a UK operation and announced their intentions to enter the UK market suggests that they've already done those calculations, and that both the finance officers are comfortable that they can afford to take the risk and the development team are confident it will pay off.

 

As for what the model will be, well, of course that's just speculation at the moment. But I think we have learned that quirky or esoteric prototypes are popular, even if, in reality, they didn't have particularly widespread use. The Blue Pullman, the Garratt, the J70, the Stirling Single and, of course, the APT-E - none of these had a particularly large production run in real life, but they've all sold like hot cakes as models. So I don't think Rapido will necessarily be restricting themselves to widely-used prototypes. 

 

Personally, I think there are, essentially, two options when it comes to choosing a prototype. The first is to pick something which fills an obvious gap in the market, and a gap that's big enough to generate enough sales despite being an otherwise unremarkable prototype. The other option is to go for something esoteric, that will not necessarily be what a large number of people need to fill a gap in their collection but is well enough known to sell to people just because it's there (a la the APT-E). Or, possibly, something which can be a crossover between those two categories - take an iconic prototype that has been modelled before, but one that has no current-standard model available, and do it to Rapido's quality. I'll leave it to those more familiar with the diesel scene than I am to come up with ideas of what fits those categories :)

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