Bachmann 2018 mid-year update

[The Johnster]

Price increases have not so far affected the Cwmdimbath Valley Railway Company's locomotive procurement policy; despite my poverty stricken can't you hear the violins pensioner status, if I want it I'll buy it.  But this is in itself influenced by my small BLT, which does not require stock in the same quantities as a main line layout, so I can be a bit indulgent with myself.  Only a bit, mind.  I intend to buy the Bachmann 94xx and Dapol large prairie as soon as I can after they are available, and may well pre-order the 94xx, and a 56xx and 8750 are on the replacement list as they are old Mainline bodies on modern chassis, but do not have cab backhead detail.  I am looking to eBay for this to try and save money.

 

But I reckon £150 for a tank loco would be about my limit, no matter how much I wanted it (we haven't quite reached that for DC 0-6-0s yet).  This is the level at which I would find it very difficult indeed to cobble cash together reliably enough to buy the model while it was in stock; I expect new releases to sell out rather quickly and a further wait if you 'miss the boat'.  I am too old now to play the long game, and have a 'get it while it's there' philosophy which can be very painful in the pocket area...

[Mike Storey]

Think yourself lucky. The Sheppey Railway Branch Management Committee would be buying in significant quantities, if anything was yet available for our Finance Director to approve......

[The Johnster]

Actually, come to think of it, I have not been that careless with my money.  Of 8 locos only two have been bought brand new, and only one of those at full price, a Bachmann 64xx.  My brand new Hornby 42xx was a reduced price offer, and all the others are secondhand or older bodies with more up to date secondhand chassis.  But I doubt I'll be able to get away with this when it comes to the Baccy 94xx or Dapol 5101.  My 56xx is not now going to be replaced, I have decided, having just been repainted, but a current version secondhand Bachmann one has been sourced on eBay and is on the way, at less than half the current list price, and there is the possibility of an 8750 in an eBay auction.

 

I prefer to buy from my local shop when I can; he does secondhand and can often match box-shifter prices, and I can see the model being test run before buying.  I have done well so far on 'Bay, but do not really trust mail or online ordering and find it a bit stressful.

[tomparryharry]

Price increases have not so far affected the Cwmdimbath Valley Railway Company's locomotive procurement policy; despite my poverty stricken can't you hear the violins pensioner status, if I want it I'll buy it.  But this is in itself influenced by my small BLT, which does not require stock in the same quantities as a main line layout, so I can be a bit indulgent with myself.  Only a bit, mind.  I intend to buy the Bachmann 94xx and Dapol large prairie as soon as I can after they are available, and may well pre-order the 94xx, and a 56xx and 8750 are on the replacement list as they are old Mainline bodies on modern chassis, but do not have cab backhead detail.  I am looking to eBay for this to try and save money.

 

But I reckon £150 for a tank loco would be about my limit, no matter how much I wanted it (we haven't quite reached that for DC 0-6-0s yet).  This is the level at which I would find it very difficult indeed to cobble cash together reliably enough to buy the model while it was in stock; I expect new releases to sell out rather quickly and a further wait if you 'miss the boat'.  I am too old now to play the long game, and have a 'get it while it's there' philosophy which can be very painful in the pocket area...

There may be a degree of realism in there. I'd might wager that the 94xx is held back, until the buying public are comfortable with the £130-150 price range for a locomotive. After all, the humble 8750 pannier still commands around £80 brand new. How do you justify an extra £50-70 on top?

 

Rationally, I expect the release of the 94xx will be about 5 years from now, or, about 2023. What would compel Bachmann to move into high gear? Err, nothing, really. If you have a decreasing demographic, and a high development cost, the particular margins start getting uncomfortably slim.

 

A much better business are things like rolling stock. Wagons are now commanding £15-20 each. No motorised parts; limited assembly skills. Gate prices are much lower, the profit margins much, much higher. A good business plan is repeat business. You can keep coming back little & often. 4 wagons equals the same outlay as an 0-6-0. Buying a locomotive can, or will, hamper the desire to buy extra rolling stock, and that IMHO, is where the money is.

 

Happy modelling,

 

Ian.

[The Johnster]

That makes sense, Ian, but I hope I don't have to wait another five years for a model announced 3 years ago!  These very long lead times between announcement and delivery are not making Kader any friends, and the constant putting back of the model, 3 times already, smacks of a manufacturer with problems and leads to customer mistrust in a company traditionally regarded as a safe pair of hands.  For this marketing reason, I think the model will appear some time in 2019, but I'm not putting money on it or holding my breath, and am glad I have my Limbach so I don't have to fret too much about it...

 

8 years from announcement to production is not acceptable.  Price increases are inevitable, though, as Chinese workers demand better standards of living (and why shouldn't they?), and while I don't like them, I am able to accept that what it costs is what it costs.  I feel less ripped off by a 94xx at £125 than I do paying £30 for a redacted 30 years ago A27/30 auto trailer with bogies that fall very far short of current standards made from moulds that couldn't have cost much when the manufacturer that acquired  them secondhand produces suitable bogies for other items in the range, and needs all the friends it can get now just.

 

I don't mind paying going rates for decent quality models; the £150 is about the mark at which I reckon I couldn't, in my current circumstances, afford to whether I wanted to or not.  This will only rise at the same rate as my fixed income pensions and allowances rise; I am sure the manufacturers have done enough market research (it's only a matter of looking around at the sort of people who attend shows, not rocket science) to realise that the customer base is top heavy in respect to age, with the impact that is bound to have on disposable income.  One of the reasons, not the only one, I chose to model a fairly small but admittedly busy BLT was that the stock requirements would be within my capacity to purchase without damaging the rest of my life unduly.  There are other reasons for my not wanting a big main line layout, but I can't afford it anyway!

[mdvle]

There may be a degree of realism in there. I'd might wager that the 94xx is held back, until the buying public are comfortable with the £130-150 price range for a locomotive. After all, the humble 8750 pannier still commands around £80 brand new. How do you justify an extra £50-70 on top?

 

Rationally, I expect the release of the 94xx will be about 5 years from now, or, about 2023. What would compel Bachmann to move into high gear? Err, nothing, really. If you have a decreasing demographic, and a high development cost, the particular margins start getting uncomfortably slim.

 

The problem with your speculation is that, from the latest Bachmann magazine, the 94xx has gone into tooling.

 

Now tooling is the most expensive part of making a model and Bachmann would not be paying those costs to then turn around and put the molds on a shelf for 5 years.

[tomparryharry]

That makes sense, Ian, but I hope I don't have to wait another five years for a model announced 3 years ago!  These very long lead times between announcement and delivery are not making Kader any friends, and the constant putting back of the model, 3 times already, smacks of a manufacturer with problems and leads to customer mistrust in a company traditionally regarded as a safe pair of hands.  For this marketing reason, I think the model will appear some time in 2019, but I'm not putting money on it or holding my breath, and am glad I have my Limbach so I don't have to fret too much about it...

 

8 years from announcement to production is not acceptable.  Price increases are inevitable, though, as Chinese workers demand better standards of living (and why shouldn't they?), and while I don't like them, I am able to accept that what it costs is what it costs.  I feel less ripped off by a 94xx at £125 than I do paying £30 for a redacted 30 years ago A27/30 auto trailer with bogies that fall very far short of current standards made from moulds that couldn't have cost much when the manufacturer that acquired  them secondhand produces suitable bogies for other items in the range, and needs all the friends it can get now just.

 

I don't mind paying going rates for decent quality models; the £150 is about the mark at which I reckon I couldn't, in my current circumstances, afford to whether I wanted to or not.  This will only rise at the same rate as my fixed income pensions and allowances rise; I am sure the manufacturers have done enough market research (it's only a matter of looking around at the sort of people who attend shows, not rocket science) to realise that the customer base is top heavy in respect to age, with the impact that is bound to have on disposable income.  One of the reasons, not the only one, I chose to model a fairly small but admittedly busy BLT was that the stock requirements would be within my capacity to purchase without damaging the rest of my life unduly.  There are other reasons for my not wanting a big main line layout, but I can't afford it anyway!

I see your point. But.. Bachmann probably know to the exact 1/2 penny what it costs to make, and the margins gained. If there's better returns on any item, that will be where most focus is created, supported and maintained. Any business will tell you that. A good business will diversify into suitable complimentary products, to enhance the earnings base. Sure, they'll want you to buy the latest 'must have', but, "buy this other one, whilst you're there". Sometimes, it's known as a 'loss leader' Not all businesses have loss leaders; BMC came a cropper with too many loss leaders.

 

Because we're predominately loco-centric, the focus needs to be kept with that latest 'must have'. Guilty as charged, M'Lud! But, and behind it, is the quiet business of actually making money. One avenue is 'inconsequential spend'. Inconsequential spend is, or was, the value you hand over for those little things that you like to buy for yourself. The demographic varies, but the notion (behind the business) is sound. In the early seventies, it was gauged at 2 pints, 20 fags, or a girly magazine. It won't dent the money supply. If you look at the cost of inconsequential spend today, transfer that cost value to your model railway. Ringing any bells? Yes, you will have a 94xx, but only when Bachmann can release it with a fair certainty on return.

 

Good luck to Bachmann, I bear absolutely no grudge to them, their business or their staff & associates. What I do know, is that they are there to make money, just like everyone else.

 

Cheers,

 

Ian.

[adb968008]

The problem with your speculation is that, from the latest Bachmann magazine, the 94xx has gone into tooling.

 

Now tooling is the most expensive part of making a model and Bachmann would not be paying those costs to then turn around and put the molds on a shelf for 5 years.

Agree but..

 

Eeewww but they kind of they did once...

The LN, B1, Bulleid coaches all disappeared for 5 years when Palitoy walked away when they drew conclusions the UK market was too small and unprofitable to their other markets and products... there’s a picture of the bullied coaches in an old Airfix catalog even... so it was more than partially tooled.

Edited September 8, 2018 by adb968008

[tomparryharry]

The problem with your speculation is that, from the latest Bachmann magazine, the 94xx has gone into tooling.

 

Now tooling is the most expensive part of making a model and Bachmann would not be paying those costs to then turn around and put the molds on a shelf for 5 years.

May I respectfully ask, how do you know it's gone to tooling? Making a carrier plate for moulds might qualify (as reported by Bachmann Times) that there has been expenditure by Bachmann, possibly with a model.

 

Once again, good luck to Bachmann. I'll see one, as & when I see one.

 

Cheers,

 

Ian.

[AMJ]

I think that the most recent price hikes are nothing in comparison to the prices you see for similar locomotives in mainland Europe and in USA.  Whenever I'm abroad I like to have a look in a model shop and can be shocked by the pricing.  From the videos I watch from USA they are talking about $40 for a  bogie box van about $2-300 for a diesel loco often with sound fitted and all of the railings fitted.  Many shops in Germany have stream locos for about €300.

 

Prices in the UK are cheap.

[mdvle]

May I respectfully ask, how do you know it's gone to tooling? Making a carrier plate for moulds might qualify (as reported by Bachmann Times) that there has been expenditure by Bachmann, possibly with a model.

 

Once again, good luck to Bachmann. I'll see one, as & when I see one.

 

Cheers,

 

Ian.

 

Are you trying to imply the Bachmann is lying?

 

My source, as indicated in my original post, was the Bachmann Times image posted (but since removed for copyright reasons) here http://www.rmweb.co.uk/community/index.php?/topic/137188-Bachmann-94xx/

 

For reference, Bachmann appears to be reasonably clear in their periodic updates at to what stages their models are at and I would point out that of the models in their January update that were indicated to be in tooling (158/159/117/24) have all but the 159 have made it to EP stage.

 

Demonstrating they things are finally progressing again, in addition to the 3 models now demonstrated at the EP stage listed above the 121 and 2HAP were both at CAD stage in January and are now through the tooling process and have demonstrated EP versions.

 

So, I take Bachmann's word that when they say the 94xx has gone to tooling that they mean what they say.

[tomparryharry]

Are you trying to imply the Bachmann is lying?

 

My source, as indicated in my original post, was the Bachmann Times image posted (but since removed for copyright reasons) here http://www.rmweb.co.uk/community/index.php?/topic/137188-Bachmann-94xx/

 

For reference, Bachmann appears to be reasonably clear in their periodic updates at to what stages their models are at and I would point out that of the models in their January update that were indicated to be in tooling (158/159/117/24) have all but the 159 have made it to EP stage.

 

Demonstrating they things are finally progressing again, in addition to the 3 models now demonstrated at the EP stage listed above the 121 and 2HAP were both at CAD stage in January and are now through the tooling process and have demonstrated EP versions.

 

So, I take Bachmann's word that when they say the 94xx has gone to tooling that they mean what they say.

 No implications on my part whatsoever.  Your rightful prerogative is to choose what you wish to believe, and like you, I'll defend your right to that choice. 

 

Me? Call me a cynical old so-and so, with probably too many miles on the clock, too many stories, both true & fanciful, and a hard-bitten attitude to money, and how it works.

 

 

Cheers,

 

Ian.

Edited September 8, 2018 by tomparryharry

[The Johnster]

I, too, am a noted cynic; show me flowers and i look for the funeral.  But I am inclined by instinct to take Baccy at their word, despite their previous failings and let down in the matter of the 94xx, for the reasons I've stated.  

 

Then again, I've been wrong before, and usually because I listened to other people.  And you have to allow for stuff that happens outside Baccy's control as well!

[No Decorum]

I don’t think that tomparryharry is accusing Bachmann of lying. He only made the point that tooling is a long process and there can be quite some time between it being started and finished.

 

I don’t think the point is made enough that, although the purpose of a business is to make money, the way to make money is to be enthusiastic about what you do. The awkward position Hornby is in resulted from people with “bright” ideas but no understanding of the market being in charge. Contrast it with the enthusiasm radiated by, for example, Simon Kohler and Ilsey and the people at Bachmann.

[The Stationmaster]

I see your point. But.. Bachmann probably know to the exact 1/2 penny what it costs to make, and the margins gained. If there's better returns on any item, that will be where most focus is created, supported and maintained. Any business will tell you that. A good business will diversify into suitable complimentary products, to enhance the earnings base. Sure, they'll want you to buy the latest 'must have', but, "buy this other one, whilst you're there". Sometimes, it's known as a 'loss leader' Not all businesses have loss leaders; BMC came a cropper with too many loss leaders.

 

Because we're predominately loco-centric, the focus needs to be kept with that latest 'must have'. Guilty as charged, M'Lud! But, and behind it, is the quiet business of actually making money. One avenue is 'inconsequential spend'. Inconsequential spend is, or was, the value you hand over for those little things that you like to buy for yourself. The demographic varies, but the notion (behind the business) is sound. In the early seventies, it was gauged at 2 pints, 20 fags, or a girly magazine. It won't dent the money supply. If you look at the cost of inconsequential spend today, transfer that cost value to your model railway. Ringing any bells? Yes, you will have a 94xx, but only when Bachmann can release it with a fair certainty on return.

 

Good luck to Bachmann, I bear absolutely no grudge to them, their business or their staff & associates. What I do know, is that they are there to make money, just like everyone else.

 

Cheers,

 

Ian.

 

Not quite as simple as that tho' is it.  I've no doubt that Kader will know to the nearest cent exactly what the model will cost to tool, manufacture, pack, and ship to the UK but what also matters is the margin they charge on top of cost to Bachmann Europe.  And as Kader have managed, partially through (internal) sale price increases. to move to profitability in model railway manufacture they aren't going to step back from that - especially as according to their accounts they take to account the whole of the tooling costs in the financial year in which they are incurred.   Thus Bachmann Europe are faced with a purchase price from Kader which is set  not by Bachmann Europe but by Kader and on to that they inevitably have to add their own coasts plus a realistic profit margin.

 

Kader will want payment for its part as work is completed and models are shipped and it will obviously make sense to them from an accountancy and profit/loss viewpoint to keep the shortest possible time lag between incurring a tooling cost and earning revenue from the shipping of completed models - in fact it makes even better sense to achieve all of it within the same financial year if they can (although that no doubt often doesn't happen?).   To what extent Kader can force Bachmann Europe to order and then take delivery of models manufactured by Kader we simply don't know and in many respects it doesn't really matter.  If Bachmann have identified a market for the 94XX they will also have identified how many they want in the first tranche.  And they will see it in just the way as they see any other model - they will want to get it in as quickly as possible in order to sell and get in revenue because they see the resolution of the delivery problem as being the key factor in improving the company's financial performance.  Their accounts do not indicate any significant price resistance due to rising retail prices and they have a very strong order book although they are concerned about the volatility of prices for buying in from China.  What they need is the product coming forward steadily to fill their orders from retailers. 

 

So I simply can't see them (Bachmann Europe) or Kader sitting on their hands when the 94Xx has been approved for production - it will be into production as quickly as factory capacity allows and shipped the UK as soon as capacity to do that has been lined up.  Once it gets to Barwell it will no doubt go out through the gate almost as quickly as it went in as it will represent money sitting on a shelf doing nothing if that doesn't happen.  As to how much it will cost you and I we will need about half a dozen political and financial crystal balls to give even a hint; the number of factors involved in setting the cost are far too many and constantly changing to make any sort of advance estimate beyond a poorly educated guess.

[tomparryharry]

Aah, apologies! Please allow me to clarify my point from my earlier post. I'll try to illustrate what I meant, but it seems, poorly explained. 

 

Lets start by  looking at a production company. In this instance, lets call them Sooper-Dooper Trains.

 

Now, Sooper- Dooper are very good at their jobs: quality product, well received reputation.  Sooper-Dooper have a product development department, bringing new product to market, under the overall banner of Sooper-Dooper.

 

Now, the project is the next model train. Research & Development have done their work, and it's going to look good. The boss have even seen the mock-up, and he's impressed. Well done team! However, the ladies & gents from finance have a little problem.. Sure, it's good, you've done all of the work, but the anticipated RRP is higher than the market will stomach. So, all of the permutations are weighed up, but it's still not looking too good. Then, Fred the office boy (just returned from getting tea & doughnuts) pipes up... "I know, why don't you slow up the development, and spread the costs over a couple of financial years? Some of those costs can be written down into the budget called 'development', where we already have an established budget stream. As soon as the market catches up, then you can release the next Sooper-Dooper product to universal acclaim."

 

Everyone looks at the boss: He instructs marketing. " Keep the marketing going; We know it's good. Drip-feed, now & again, keep the customers on the hook." R&D breathe a sigh of relief, they've got a mountain of work, but, the project is all pretty sown up, with all of the important information stored safely away on the company computer files. Marketing have their own work, with all of the quality work that Sooper-Dooper already make. The boss at Sooper-Dooper has a good set of people in the finance Team. Both he and his team know that when the market can stand the product, It can go into production as soon as possible.

 

Fred the office boy?  Clever bloke Fred. He'll go far....

 

Fred Needle-Street.

[159220]

If I didn't post it, it wasn't covered in the briefing but I may be able to get some answers during the week ahead.

Hi, it would be wonderful to hear whether Bachmann have said where the 20/3 is, along with the WiFi modules to the GWR 158 and the 150/2. I suspect the 150/2 delivered in 2018 referred to the ATW?

 

God that 158 tooling looks good!

 

Did you take any photos of the 90s in their livery sample. Most interested to see how authentic the pantograph is looking.

[The Johnster]

FWIW, I thing both Stationmaster and TPH are right about the 94xx.  They've given us an interesting insight into the world of RTR R & D, finance, internal structure and relationships, production, delivery, and marketing.  Fred will probably go far, but he's far too cheeky to know his place at Sooper-Dooper; no doubt Bettertrainz will head hunt him!

[The Stationmaster]

Aah, apologies! Please allow me to clarify my point from my earlier post. I'll try to illustrate what I meant, but it seems, poorly explained. 

 

Lets start by  looking at a production company. In this instance, lets call them Sooper-Dooper Trains.

 

Now, Sooper- Dooper are very good at their jobs: quality product, well received reputation.  Sooper-Dooper have a product development department, bringing new product to market, under the overall banner of Sooper-Dooper.

 

Now, the project is the next model train. Research & Development have done their work, and it's going to look good. The boss have even seen the mock-up, and he's impressed. Well done team! However, the ladies & gents from finance have a little problem.. Sure, it's good, you've done all of the work, but the anticipated RRP is higher than the market will stomach. So, all of the permutations are weighed up, but it's still not looking too good. Then, Fred the office boy (just returned from getting tea & doughnuts) pipes up... "I know, why don't you slow up the development, and spread the costs over a couple of financial years? Some of those costs can be written down into the budget called 'development', where we already have an established budget stream. As soon as the market catches up, then you can release the next Sooper-Dooper product to universal acclaim."

 

Everyone looks at the boss: He instructs marketing. " Keep the marketing going; We know it's good. Drip-feed, now & again, keep the customers on the hook." R&D breathe a sigh of relief, they've got a mountain of work, but, the project is all pretty sown up, with all of the important information stored safely away on the company computer files. Marketing have their own work, with all of the quality work that Sooper-Dooper already make. The boss at Sooper-Dooper has a good set of people in the finance Team. Both he and his team know that when the market can stand the product, It can go into production as soon as possible.

 

Fred the office boy?  Clever bloke Fred. He'll go far....

 

Fred Needle-Street.

 

But then a visiting Stationmaster looked at Bachmann's accounts - which seem unlike those of many other & commissioners manufacturers to have escaped public RMweb notice in recent months - and saw that their key emphasis was on getting product delivered from the factory so they could get it into the market place and meet the £10 million's worth of orders they have sitting on their books.  Their problem is that they have been unable to get the model railway products they wish to sell and have orders for therefore they have again sustained a financial loss (albeit a reduced one) on their trading for the year ended 31 December 2017.

 

The interest is there already with many past announcements of models yet to be delivered and they also know that their end market does appear to be suffering from price resistance as a result of increased retail prices (although I suspect the wording of the report is very carefully phrased in that respect when one considers that sales growth came from lower margin items, i.e. such as Pocketbond and EFE).  To put it another way they are crying out for things to sell and they don't seem particularly concerned about price resistance therefore they would be quite happy to supply various Wales and the adjacent Marches 4mm scale Shedmasters with 94XX if they can get them out the ship and through the gates.

 

The important thing to remember with Kader is that they put tooling costs into their accounts in full in the financial year in which they are incurred - that's what the notes in their accounts say.  So the cost is there for them in a single year, not spread over several years, in the year the tools are made thus they need to start earning as soon as the tools exist.  Spreading tooling (i.e. actually making the tools) over a longer period wouldn't make much difference apart from the cost of making them rising as their base costs rise due to wage increase etc - the simple answer is to get them made and operational earning money as quickly as possible.

[The Johnster]

The problem is that blue box are getting a reputation for long lead times which is not doing their marketing or relationship with their customers any good.  I foresee the price problem being solved by a 2 level approach; a 'no frills' basic DC and a highly detailed 'full fat' DCC with all the whistles and bells (literally) version.  This is already happening in Europe and the US.  

 

The manufacturers' marketing people probably have a pretty good handle on this, knowing what proportion of their customer base have disposable income and are happy to dispose of it, and those like me whose income is fixed and the disposable part of it limited (kids and pensioners).  

[Fenman]

... I foresee the price problem being solved by a 2 level approach; a 'no frills' basic DC and a highly detailed 'full fat' DCC with all the whistles and bells (literally) version. ...

Are you sure that makes sense?

 

1) we know there are lots of old farts like me who are DC but pay full whack for models with high levels of detailing;

 

2) we know that in some model shops (where we have data), the ratio of DC:DCC sales is (from memory - very happy to be corrected!) 4:1 - but we also know some people who run DCC buy the DC version to fit their own chips. It still seems reasonable to think that DC is a larger market than DCC.

 

3) Hornby seems to have done rather well with cheap sound on cheap(er) Railroad models, as well as a few at more expensive price points.

 

Those things seem to tell a more complex story than your rather definitive split into two segments.

 

Paul

Edited September 9, 2018 by Fenman

[mdvle]

The problem for office boy Fred is that if you want to slow things down you do so while your costs are minimal - in other words before you okay the $100,000 cost of tooling a new model (cost based on rumours that have gone around for years now).

 

Even if finance were concerned about the ability to sell at the new price they would be absolutely horrified at the thought of such a major expenditure happening with no plans to pay it off by selling the resulting model, and the following cascade of issues where the cost of the debt eats into the ability to finance other new models.

 

So short version, if Bachmann UK was concerned about the ability of the market to pay the cost of the 94xx they would have left it at the CAD stage and not approved it into tooling.

 

[edited insert -

 

Also, Bachmann will also be considering what their competitors are doing and may want to get the 94xx out before the Model Rail 1600 possibility takes some of the sales away from those in the market who just want a modern pannier engine

 

]

 

Now yes, Bachmann has had production issues over the last number of years which has justifiably resulted in a great deal of skepticism.  But, if one pays attention one can see that the issues appear to now be in the past with product moving through the pipeline in reasonable time frames as I mentioned in my previous post.

 

As for the suggestion of cheap DC and expensive DCC, not likely and certainly is not what is happening in the US.  The only company I am aware of that sells their product in 2 lines is ScaleTrains, and both the Operator and Rivet Counter lines come in DC and DCC/Sound versions.  Even then it is worth noting that the latest announced product from ScaleTrains is a high end only model.

Edited September 9, 2018 by mdvle

[The Johnster]

Are you sure that makes sense?

 

1) we know there are lots of old farts like me who are DC but pay full whack for models with high levels of detailing;

 

2) we know that in some model shops (where we have data), the ratio of DC:DCC sales is (from memory - very happy to be corrected!) 4:1 - but we also know some people who run DCC buy the DC version to fit their own chips. It still seems reasonable to think that DC is a larger market than DCC.

 

3) Hornby seems to have done rather well with cheap sound on cheap(er) Railroad models, as well as a few at more expensive price points.

 

Those things seem to tell a more complex story than your rather definitive split into two segments.

 

Paul

 

Oh, no, I was never sure any of it made sense!  I was trying to make sense of it, with an eye to the future which may be drifting OT a little.  To take your points in order:-

 

1) Agreed, no question.  But for how much longer?

 

2) My impression of layouts seen at exhibitions and on video is that DCC is gaining traction (sorry) very quickly, especially among modern image modellers, who I suspect tend to be younger than us old farts and in full employment; they can afford this sort of thing and enjoy it.  This demographic inequality (off your socialist soapbox, Johnster, this is a model railway forum, remember), ok, if not inequality,  discrepancy hides another issue, and not very well at that, is that wealthier modellers buy more models.  Cutting my cloth, my small BLT has 8 locos, and may have another one or two one day; there are contributors here who have every Deltic, or Warship, and sometimes hundreds of locos.  This means that the number of models sold does not equate to the number of modellers buying them in a linear fashion.

 

Including those who fit their own chips, I think more like half than one in 4 of modellers are using DCC, some on very big layouts with a lot of locos.  I don't, because I don't really understand it, Luddite that I am, and can't afford it for even my 8 locos anyway, but I'm a dinosaur, and will be pushing up daisies soon enough; any company that bases it's long term policy on me is as doomed as I am!  DCC is The Future, with knobs on (or at least buttons to push), and will overwhelm the market unless a viable VR alternative appears.  Which it might...

 

3) Hornby have done well with DCC sound,  but the Railroad Range, the very two level approach I was talking about but using older, redacted, moulds, has not been handled well at all.  Some models are lo-fi and quite reasonably priced, like the A27/30 auto trailer, improved a little in terms of buffers but basically the Airfix from the 1970s, but where does the Crosti 9F fit in, a Railroad item in the hi-fi price bracket.  Railroad seems to lack a definite role or policy; is it redacted 0-4-0s for kids, or what?

 

I expect a rebrand on more sensible lines in the near future as new brooms sweep the organisation, again.  Market forces won't allow anything that could be regarded as negative, so 'basic', 'value', 'no frills' and the like are out, Railroad is tainted, and we'll rumble 'classic'; be interesting to see what bull they come up with! 

Edited September 9, 2018 by The Johnster

[autocoach]

"As for the suggestion of cheap DC and expensive DCC, not likely and certainly is not what is happening in the US.  The only company I am aware of that sells their product in 2 lines is ScaleTrains, and both the Operator and Rivet Counter lines come in DC and DCC/Sound versions.  Even then it is worth noting that the latest announced product from ScaleTrains is a high end only model."

 

Most North American diesel locomotive manufacturers/importers offer both DCC fitted and non-DCC versions. Lately it seems that the DCC fitted versions are also sound fitted and there is no DCC only version. In particular Rapido works this way. Atlas and Bowser also appear to have gone to DC and DCC Sound only. I don't follow Intermountain, Walthers/Proto2000 and Athearn diesel production that much so I have not noticed their proclivities. There is no discernible difference in the level of detail between the Rapido, Atlas and Bowser DC and DCC versions.

 

I am partially deaf so sound equipped diesels are not what I really want but I have to buy the sound version if a DCC install will be difficult (as in the case of the Rapido RDC's.) Often you have to pre order in advance and have no knowledge of whether a DCC non-sound install will be difficult when the product actually arrives so I go with the DCC-Sound installed.  With my hearing issues the noisy sound emitted from NA diesel models can actually be somewhat painful. Usually I have to hit the F8 key and render them silent when operating. Steam sound is different and much more pleasing to my ears. It's the difference between a screeching popster and Mozart. (Moderate that if you will.)

[adb968008]

A lot of hypothesis, but a dose of reality might be worth while..

 

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/02392907/filing-history

 

Last years company accounts for Bachmann reports a loss, 2016 reported a greater loss.

The directors report discusses reductions in field operatives in the UK and stock reductions.

Additionally the same including redundancies in Germany.

It does mention delays in China due to restructuring and a new ERP system in October 2018

(if it sounds familiar.. Hornby / Sanda Kan supplier issues also was followed by a new ERP system in 2014/5).

 

How that impacts company operations, I cannot speculate, the company looks to be heading the right way, but it’s lost £1/2mn in 2 years.

Edited September 9, 2018 by adb968008