Hornby Discount Limits

[Legend]

Yes must admit most of my purchases have been second hand in the last year . Only Hattons Andrew Barclay and Dapols 68 new . I have a J36 on order from Rails , was contemplating a second , but I’ll reckon I’ll just wait see now . The reality of it is that many trains have become so expensive that it’s probably irrelevant as many wont even pay the discounted price. I’m finding other things , like making model airliners , taking up my time now .

Edited September 19, 2018 by Legend

[andyman7]

I kind of see it in as manufactures profiteering. 

 

I know people don't like price rises but at the prices people have been expecting to pay for superdetail models there aren't any profits. The fact that pretty much ALL the major manufacturers are adopting this approach suggest that it is seen as a vital tool to maintain a viable business.

[Trains4U]

You only have to look at recent times where this has happened anyway - Hattons had and item at price A whilst they were selling hot and then it became price B when they couldn't shift them. Same happens with Heljan every few years. Can't sell them for list price so the warehouse fills up - they need the cash so dump the stock.

 

This isn't protecting high street shops at all - I kind of see it in as manufactures profiteering. Now only those who really want the model will buy in the first 6 weeks. For example how many Hornby models of recent times have sold out in that time anyway? My local as small as it is still has the majority of the last 9 months of releases available.. It's still quite clear from the frankly bizarre models that the majority of manufactures are popping out that they have no real finger on the pulse of the market anyway.

 

Look at the growth of retailers producing their own. The market is shrinking for 'big boys' and they can't keep up so they are cash grabbing whilst they can.

 

The Oxford Rail/Diecast school of thought appears to work well. Shame they don't make more as they have had most of my cash this year !

 

 

Coming on the horizon I can only foresee 3 purchases in the next 12 months. I've started attending a lot more swapmeets/shows and staying local and the prices are arguably better anyhow.. The market is buoyant with very good second hand models.

I don’t even know where to start with this post...

 

I, can’t, even...

[Dunsignalling]

Higher prices for excellent models I am prepared to pay i.e. Rapido's offerings, SLW 24's, etc, but I do think it is taking the p--- when manufacturers are asking £50 for a mk1 Pullman coach which had been in the catalogue since 2004 when it was first mooted no matter how good a model it may be.

Ah, but what proportion of your current income does £50 represent and what proportion of your 2004 income would have it taken to buy one then?..... 

[40F]

The manufacturers and retailers are looking at the long term big picture. The customers are normally out for themselves. Something like this:

 

Customer: Wahhhh!! I want cheaper toy trains!!!!

 

Manufacturer: If they are any cheaper, all the mdoel shops will close as they need to make some money.

 

Customer: I don't care. I just want cheaper toy trains.

 

The market evolves. All the model shops shut. The only outlet is Amazon.

 

Customer: Wahhhh!! I want cheaper toy trains!!!!

 

Manufacturer: We are cutting things to the bone. Amazon takes the biggest cut.

 

Customer: I don't care. I just want cheaper toy trains.

 

The market evolves. The manufacturers close down.

 

Customer: Wahhhh!! I want any toy trains!!!!

 

Silence.

 

 

If you prefer another example, I don't want to pay for the fire brigade. Until I my house is on fire, then I'm glad someone has looked at the big picture and decided we ought to have one. Leaving everything to individuals isn't always the best long-term solution.

 

 

The best argued reply of this whole thread

[Dunsignalling]

Yes must admit most of my purchases have been second hand in the last year . Only Hattons Andrew Barclay and Dapols 68 new . I have a J36 on order from Rails , was contemplating a second , but I’ll reckon I’ll just wait see now . The reality of it is that many trains have become so expensive that it’s probably irrelevant as many wont even pay the discounted price. I’m finding other things , like making model airliners , taking up my time now .

So, rising prices have led to you reappraising how much specific model trains really matter to you and it turns out to be not as much as you previously thought?

 

That second-hand purchases so readily fill your needs suggests that you didn't consider the items in question attractive enough to buy when they were new? 

 

John

[robmcg]

Does anyone know, or is prepared to hazard a guess as to the proportion of buyers out there who are essentially collectors?  I know it's a can of worms as you can be a collector and have a model railway, and/or be a modeller, but my feeling is that there are more people who 'collect' than may be prepared to admit to it....   often citing 'my planned model railway' and so on. 

 

All of which may be separate to things like DCC, children's trainsets and so on.  

 

Essentially I am wondering how many purchases are driven by a desire to buy a nice model because it is simply an enjoyable to own it, I just bought another Hornby King for no better reason than that. Tossed up between that and a new Atlantic,  and all things considered, liked the King better.

[JSpencer]

This isn't protecting high street shops at all - I kind of see it in as manufactures profiteering. Now only those who really want the model will buy in the first 6 weeks. For example how many Hornby models of recent times have sold out in that time anyway? My local as small as it is still has the majority of the last 9 months of releases available.. It's still quite clear from the frankly bizarre models that the majority of manufactures are popping out that they have no real finger on the pulse of the market anyway.

 els.

This statement is not logical and only makes sense if Hornby increases the prices at the last second but still allows a shop to make a profit on the old price with the limited discount. It seems that the price Hornby sells them to the shops has not changed which means their pockets are not getting extra money from this. They might get less money if pre orders dry up - we,ll see as time goes on...

 

On the other hand if shops are not selling, this is strong hint of saturation is already there and this strategy probably almost certainly won,t help to address it. This requires more creative thought on the preorder process. Hornby need accurate figures of what to make and preorders need to be attractive to both shops and end customers alike.

[Legend]

So, rising prices have led to you reappraising how much specific model trains really matter to you and it turns out to be not as much as you previously thought?

 

That second-hand purchases so readily fill your needs suggests that you didn't consider the items in question attractive enough to buy when they were new?

 

John

Mixture of reasons really. One is that I wasn’t modelling that era at the time and didn’t see the need for it when new . I gave up on modern image a while back because it was difficult to keep up with all the franchises, but the purchase of Dapol 68 which I really like got me interested again . Shock horror I bought a very cheap Lima Freightliner 66 as something for it to run with. Sufficiently detailed for me . I run my models , don’t really look at them at close quarters. Others were too much of a bargain so that even though it’s not something I was really looking for it’s attractive enough to buy at the price, my Hornby APT and Virgin Class 91 are in that category . But yes in general I’m prepared to pay £80-£100 for a detailed loco , like a second hand Bachmann 37 or 66 but not £150 + for a new one. In general if you bide your time you can generally find something suitable. I could pay for a new one but realistically I get up my loft maybe every two weeks for a couple of hours . Just not prepared to pay huge amounts of money for models that see very limited use. An example was the Locomotion Atlantic £189 plus postage for a loco that seldom runs . That was the model that after the initial interest subsided caused me to reappraise value for money and was it worth it. The other reason is that there are many more good quality second hand models around, some not that old Edited September 19, 2018 by Legend

[Trains4U]

I'm beginning to wonder if saturation point has been reached.

 

the quantities of used models being offered to us to buy in is steadily increasing, whilst sales of new locos is a fraction of what it was 8 years ago.

 

I'm wondering if a "Scrappage Scheme" would be a good idea - with old models being recycled (Yes, actually destroyed) in exchange for a manufacturer subsidised discount from a new one

Edited September 19, 2018 by Trains4U

[Legend]

I'm beginning to wonder if saturation point has been reached.

 

the quantities of used models being offered to us to buy in is steadily increasing, whilst sales of new locos is a fraction of what it was 8 years ago.

 

I'm wondering if a "Scrappage Scheme" would be a good idea - with old models being recycled (Yes, actually destroyed) in exchange for a manufacturer subsidised discount from a new one

Interesting . Kind of underlines my experiences . But don’t you think the large increase in prices of new locos in that period is the main reason why sales are a fraction of what they were? Interested in your views . It is clear there is money around and people will buy very expensive models , but I wonder how big a market that is. I think the mainstream market or casual buyer is much more price sensitive and baulks at some of the prices of new items.

[adb968008]

I'm wondering if a "Scrappage Scheme" would be a good idea - with old models being recycled (Yes, actually destroyed) in exchange for a manufacturer subsidised discount from a new one

Ebay does this job.

People sell for tokens spent on new trains, whilst the purchaser increasingly buys up the older, cheaper, knackered ones for spares.

I Think many 1970’s locos have been broken down for bits, 1980’s will surely follow.

I’d imagine many wheels, chassis and plastic jinty bodies have hit the bin in the last 2 decades.

 

However given the 1. retrenchment of the hobby , 2. increased detail delicacy and 3. bespoke toolings from the 1990’s with less spares

I actually think the x04 and Ringfield motor models will still be swilling round on ebay long after the Chinese made locos from the 1990’s-2010’s.

 

If there’s too many locos and not enough buyers, the s/h market would collapse, then a lot of people lose their shirts owning a large collection of plastic toys. At that point it’s game over for many suppliers of new and consolidation would occur.

It’s a bit like 1970’s railway magazines... lots of them in poor quality black and white, with no steam, and no new diesel technology to report..just mundane... they are pure recycle material.

 

When Lima went pop, a lot of locos massively hiked in value, as soon as New toolings started to appear, the market for Lima collapsed back to its bargain level it is at today. Don’t forget Lima we’re making 3 new liveries a month at one point... everyone bought Lima in quantities of 4 !!

 

What we need is new market innovation, not scrappage.. it was the invention of a DCC that saved the industry 20 years ago..it drove the need to re-tool.

Edited September 19, 2018 by adb968008

[frobisher]

It has already been tested in court - see https://www.gov.uk/government/case-studies/resale-price-maintenance-case-studies

With all due respect, that case doesn't pertain directly to the scenario with Hornby et al. And it's curious that there only seems to be this one bit of case history being trotted out, you'd almost be led to think it might be the only significant victory for the CMA...

 

There's no 'may' or 'could be' about it, retail price fixing is illegal - and I for one don't want to see any of the manufacturers (or retailers) being hit by a fine of 10% of their turnover...

First you have to determine it IS retail price fixing in Hornby et al's instances. If their practices were more similar to, say Games Workshop, you might have a starting point and GW hasn't been brought to account for this (their T&Cs are eye-wateringly restrictive but I suspect the general availability of their goods through alternative wholesale suppliers mitigates that).

[Keep the Faith]

With all due respect, that case doesn't pertain directly to the scenario with Hornby et al. And it's curious that there only seems to be this one bit of case history being trotted out, you'd almost be led to think it might be the only significant victory for the CMA...

There have been quite a few successful CMA prosecutions and by its predecessor,the OFT, pre-2014.

 

What happens in practice though is that it won't reach court. Once made aware of a potential offence the CMA sends a warning or advisory notice to the company. Few businesses, once they have received such a letter, will continue down the same path. A fine of 10% of turnover, legal costs and the resulting negative PR are usually a big enough incentive to cease.

 

Only the most egregious cases reach court.

[Dunsignalling]

I'm beginning to wonder if saturation point has been reached.

 

the quantities of used models being offered to us to buy in is steadily increasing, whilst sales of new locos is a fraction of what it was 8 years ago.

 

I'm wondering if a "Scrappage Scheme" would be a good idea - with old models being recycled (Yes, actually destroyed) in exchange for a manufacturer subsidised discount from a new one

I think that depends on the kind of modeller / collector one is. It wouldn't work for me, though dreadful old "Sir Dinadans" against discounted new Hornby "Arthurs" might appeal (if I hadn't already sold mine years ago).  .

 

Those, like Legend, whose interests change over time, will find certain items are (mostly) only obtainable second-hand. There's no certainty he'd resume buying more new stuff if it were not available, anyway.

 

Others, like me, who stick (generally) to a theme over the long term and tend to snap up what we want, new (and mainly Hornby in my case) while we can, in these days of reduced availability. Thus, my own purchases of pre-owned models are relatively few, and usually confined to subjects I missed out on first-time-around or whose appropriateness only came to my notice later. I seldom dispose of models, having already cleared out nearly all my post-steam-era diesels which hardly ever saw the light of day. 

 

I have made the odd "Rule One" purchase of items that I just like, almost always Bachmann; their Super D, Lanky Radial and Dukedog being examples that spring readily to mind. The bar for this sort of acquisition has now been raised very high (a Heljan 47xx is my only recent lapse) to ensure I can cover the increased cost of items I really want. So, no Ivatt Duchess or Stirling Single for me, though I do have a RCTS headboard awaiting the arrival of my "Beachy Head".... 

 

The big thing holding me back from buying more isn't money, it's space, and the fact that a majority of the locos on my metaphorical "bucket list" (many of which I never imagined being produced r-t-r) have already been covered. So, approaching saturation point of a kind, but there's still plenty of scope for coaches, wagons (and a Class 120 DMu, please).

 

John

Edited September 20, 2018 by Dunsignalling

[Trains4U]

My Scrappage comment is kind of tongue-in-cheek.

 

It worked for the motor industry (with some desirable classics being discarded and scrapped for a fraction of their worth though...)

[Dunsignalling]

My Scrappage comment is kind of tongue-in-cheek.

 

It worked for the motor industry (with some desirable classics being discarded and scrapped for a fraction of their worth though...)

Trouble with the scrappage scheme for cars was it led to the destruction of many excellent ten-year-old cars whose owners had the wherewithal to keep them in proper order but it was beyond the reach of the owners of the bangers that should really have been targeted.  

 

Letting the good cars surrendered escape in exchange for a worse example of the same model might have been a good idea. 

 

John

Edited September 20, 2018 by Dunsignalling

[Ouroborus]

I'm beginning to wonder if saturation point has been reached.

 

the quantities of used models being offered to us to buy in is steadily increasing, whilst sales of new locos is a fraction of what it was 8 years ago.

 

I'm wondering if a "Scrappage Scheme" would be a good idea - with old models being recycled (Yes, actually destroyed) in exchange for a manufacturer subsidised discount from a new one

Sitting reading all these posts on a beach in Kos. Very interesting. Keeping small shops going is great (I own one, I would say that) but in my opinion, price fixing will do all when you have rates increases of several thousand pounds year on. Plus rates. A couple of quid on a toy train doesn't dent this. My worry is that as prices rise, sales fall. This is inevitable. The consumption of toy trains is not inelastic - there will be a point at which all of us say "too much". Where is that point? Well, I don't think anybody really knows, it's going to vary from person, but year on year hefty price increases outstripping wage increases by some measure will accelerate the onset of the tipping point. What I do see is a noticeable increase in the number of people here and elsewhere grumbling about prices and cutting pre-orders.

 

Claiming or trying to make a claim that toy trains are exclusive in order to make high prices viable seems a quirky argument. Burberry and Chanel were cited. Burberry and Chanel are aspirational products - the chap on the street knows they've 'made it' when they can afford to wear these. Flashing the label down the local flashes your wealth. You get gratification from displaying your wealth. Do you honestly think this group see toy trains in the same light? That they can show their mates that they've made it when they display their Blue Pullman? Pull the other one. The hobby has an image problem as it is.

 

Hornby, Bachmann, Heljan are taking a gamble, doing something to try and shore up profits, but is that something right or will it be the final nail in the coffin?

 

This is a hobby where more people are leaving than entering - just look at how many kids are at train shows to tell you that. Trains4u's post also gives evidence - more stock coming back than going out. Are these collections being sold off because owners are broke or dead?

 

My Facebook feed today announced that Hornby have done a deal with one of the film studios for commercial tie-ins. That's rather ominous for toy trains because, aside from Hogwarts (and that ship has largely sailed), it looks like Hornby are starting to look elsewhere for sales.

 

Interesting times ahead. Won't be too suprised to see major announcements in the next few years

[Trains4U]

 

My Facebook feed today announced that Hornby have done a deal with one of the film studios for commercial tie-ins. That's rather ominous for toy trains because, aside from Hogwarts (and that ship has largely sailed), it looks like Hornby are starting to look elsewhere for sales.

 

 

 

Hornby do quite a bit more than just railways...

 

There is scope for growth, if carried out correctly, in a well researched and timely manner (i.e. products arrive in time to tie-in with the franchise in question)

[brushman47544]

I'm beginning to wonder if saturation point has been reached.

 

the quantities of used models being offered to us to buy in is steadily increasing, whilst sales of new locos is a fraction of what it was 8 years ago.

 

I'm wondering if a "Scrappage Scheme" would be a good idea - with old models being recycled (Yes, actually destroyed) in exchange for a manufacturer subsidised discount from a new one

 

My Scrappage comment is kind of tongue-in-cheek.

 

It worked for the motor industry (with some desirable classics being discarded and scrapped for a fraction of their worth though...)

 

Maybe your comment was tongue-in-cheek, but there could be some benefit in this in some cases. We all bemoan the fact the quality control is not always what it should be, whilst at the same time production practices in China mean that few spares are available and where they are, it's only as extras as part of the main production run.

 

Rather than selling off unsold models at a much reduced price, perhaps the likes of Bachmann, Hornby etc. should see some of them at least as a ready source of spares, particularly if a relatively new model and, say, one of the liveries produced doesn't sell as well as expected. Doing this would presumably be popular with retailers who still have unsold stock at the original price that would otherwise be undercut by the big guns who can afford to buy in cheap and sell over a long period.

 

Bachmann has already reworked some models that did not sell out, e.g. the BR Blue 2-EPB by releasing a weathered version, rather than heavily reducing the price, but the effect is more or less the same, i.e. the quantity of a specific model needing to be sold is reduced.

 

A down side would presumably be that manufacturers would need to increase their price margins to allow for models that were not sold as originally intended.

[APOLLO]

Again some interesting points raised.

 

I just bought (quite cheaply on Ebay) a set of bound 1970's Modern railways mags - which I find very interesting indeed (I can understand 1970's engineering !!!).

 

Saturated market ? Probably. As Ouroburus asked Too Much ? - maybe for most - definitely for me (RRP).

 

I buy very little OO these days (this year just one bargain Heljan O2 from Hattons. I have however bought several s/hand (practically new) North American O scale locos, all at very good prices. £200 for a brand new boxed never run twin motor lighted Atlas F unit with DC sound !!, a GP38-2 twin motor job is in the post , less than the cost of two Bachmann DC non sound diesels.. I've also found quite a few freight cars for around £20 - £30, some superbly made kits, some Atlas and mostly Weaver, all in good or new condition. A set of trucks and Kadee couplers would set you back £20 these days. Some of the new release prices are just (for me) simply not value for money.

 

I try to use local model shops for bits (they don't stock American O - indeed hardly anyone does these days), but my nearest local shop is 10 miles away, 

 

We have heard of Peak Oil - I think we are now at a time of Peak Model Railways - enjoy it while you can. As to Lima - wonderful locos - I still run mine - they're like cockroaches - indestructible - no scrappage for mine !!

 

Brit15

[The Stationmaster]

Interesting . Kind of underlines my experiences . But don’t you think the large increase in prices of new locos in that period is the main reason why sales are a fraction of what they were? Interested in your views . It is clear there is money around and people will buy very expensive models , but I wonder how big a market that is. I think the mainstream market or casual buyer is much more price sensitive and baulks at some of the prices of new items.

 

I suspect it is down to a lot more than price and in reality it is a very complex situation.

 

For example (me) my approach is not very different from John's (Dunsignalling) but my buying has changed in that several years ago I cut back considerably on the 'nice to have but it doesn't fit period/location' models.  The turning point was really the Olivias' EM1 which was definitely a like to have' - until I saw what it was coming out like at which point it turned into a waste of money.  Since then many others 'I'd like to haves'  have passed me by for a variety of reasons but core buying hasn't changed.   I do incidentally still buy a few 'like to haves' - otherwise I wouldn't have a Stirling Single, or an H1 Brighton Atlantic on pre-order

 

If you then add to that the multiplication of 'manufacturers'  in recent years although me as a slice of the buying market hasn't changed very much the cake of which I can now partake has become bigger and more varied therefore the slices I buy out of it might well be no different from what I used to buy but are smaller from the individual supplier's end because they are now part of that bigger cake.

 

So there are immediately two changes at work - neither of which wholly relate to price.  And I suspect that goes for a lot of people.   There is then not only the wider economic factors at work but in all of that don't forget that huge sums are being spent on personal communication devices of amazing sophistication (mine can just make & receive 'phone calls and txts although I can't fathom how to send the latter) and many places for eating out or venues of alcohol consumption etc seem to de remarkably well and manage to survive in business.  So while prices might rise, and in some cases outstrip rises in incomes in other respects and places that is not the case.  Far more money from personal budgets is spent nowadays on non-essentials than was ever the case in the past and currently mortgages are dirt cheap - a long way from the 15% rate of interest we were paying years ago.

 

I realise too that a lot of the 'money' being spent is actually plastic but that too is just another factor and a lot of that plastic goes on things people weren't (or couldn't) buying even 20 years ago.

 

Finally don't forget also that our perception of prices and value can vary.  so as a good example I have never used deep discounters' prices as a guide to model railway prices - for me they have really been a distortion of price perception rather than a true indicator because they tended to be based on some very odd (in the model trade) business models such as 'pile it high and sell it cheap'.  And that can often turn round and bite in all sorts of ways so I've also thought in terms of RRP comparisons.  Many folk I know do the opposite and seem to regard Hattons (making £1 on each loco they sell) as the 'true' price indicator.

[adb968008]

Does anyone know, or is prepared to hazard a guess as to the proportion of buyers out there who are essentially collectors? I know it's a can of worms as you can be a collector and have a model railway, and/or be a modeller, but my feeling is that there are more people who 'collect' than may be prepared to admit to it.... often citing 'my planned model railway' and so on.

 

All of which may be separate to things like DCC, children's trainsets and so on.

 

Essentially I am wondering how many purchases are driven by a desire to buy a nice model because it is simply an enjoyable to own it, I just bought another Hornby King for no better reason than that. Tossed up between that and a new Atlantic, and all things considered, liked the King better.

What might be a better question to ask, is not if you are a collector, but how many locos do you own.

I have to be honest and say i’d be scared to admit, as the truth is scary.

 

I’d hazard that’s there’s a few people on here, with more models than their local model shop, and some with more locos than would be considered a “limited edition” volume.

 

Remember a model shop might have 20 for preorders, and have 1 or 2 in the cabinet, those buying them.. it’s another box in the wall..on top of the last, and the one before, and before.. and so on for 20+ years.

Edited September 20, 2018 by adb968008

[GordonC]

What might be a better question to ask, is not if you are a collector, but how many locos do you own.

I have to be honest and say i’d be scared to admit, as the truth is scary.

 

I’d hazard that’s there’s a few people on here, with more models than their local model shop, and some with more locos than would be considered a “limited edition” volume.

 

Remember a model shop might have 20 for preorders, and have 1 or 2 in the cabinet, those buying them.. it’s another box in the wall..on top of the last, and the one before, and before.. and so on for 20+ years.

 

I could probably stock a fairly large club layout on my own ... nudging 200 locos with rolling stock to fit too, with the hope of one day having a layout to make use of them (at least infrequently). Amassed through years of picking up bargains, thinking I could renumber/repaint/modify some things and not yet finding the time to get round to it. I probably am nearing saturation point before the wife notices the cupboards around the house overflowing with blue and red boxes!!

 

It does make it easier to pass on new models which have been around for a few years with hugely inflating prices although new tooling models can still be tempting. I would worry for the industry as a whole if there are many like me around, I can easily wait for stock dumping to fill in minor gaps left in my collection.

[adb968008]

How many locos...

 

I thought maybe i’d Shift that discussion to a poll.

http://www.rmweb.co.uk/community/index.php?/topic/137703-so-how-many-locos-have-you-got/?p=3305832

Edited September 20, 2018 by adb968008