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BMacdermott

Results - The Wishlist Poll 2018

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It all depends on what they are....

 

I don't particularly want a Hornby Railroad Hall or County. I certainly don't want a Bachmann Modified Hall with the incorrect front frames.

 

The only other GWR 4-6-0s in the sale are Kings from £99 and Granges from £115. That's reasonable prices for old stock. Besides King Edward VIII is not exactly a popular king for obvious reasons.

 

There are also LNER A3s in that sale. Does that mean there should be no more of them made?

 

 

 

Jason

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I can think of one where 4-6-0 is certainly a niche (although nice) example.

 

Of course, when it comes to 2-6-0, we have a couple of Western examples to choose from.

 

When it comes to the prairie tanks, we have an additional two examples to drool over.

 

If a new RTR example was released every year, I'd be long dead before they reached the end.

 

Cheers,

 

Ian.

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Hello everyone

 

The Manor has been in The Top 50 since 2015 and became the overall most-wanted item listed this year.

 

The Saint moved into The Top 50 in 2016 and is now the third most-wanted GWR loco (behind the Manor and the 15xx).

 

The County entered The Top 50 for the first time this year, having been creeping up slowly year by year, and was not far behind the Saint.

 

We don't list any other GWR 4-6-0s but the 4-6-2 Great Bear also entered The Top 50 this year having similarly crept up as others have been announced.

 

Brian (on behalf of The 00 Poll Team)

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Are people buying as many the most wanted locomotives as are being produced?

 

For instance the SR Adams Radial and the 700 were two of the most wanted SR locomotives in 2013 and were in the top 50.  Now Hattons is offering the BR cycling lion versions of the Radial at a 55% discount and the 700 for a 53% discount. I have got no idea about how many have been made but Wessex Wagons told me that Bachmann's minimum production run is 500.

 

Perhaps only 400 people are buying a model but the minimum production run is 500. Perhaps the manufacturers price the models so that they can make a profit out of the first 400.

 

Sometimes manufacturers sell out of some of the more glamorous locomotives  the air-smoothed Merchant Navies which I think were high on the poll before 2013. 

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Are people buying as many the most wanted locomotives as are being produced?

 

For instance the SR Adams Radial and the 700 were two of the most wanted SR locomotives in 2013 and were in the top 50.  Now Hattons is offering the BR cycling lion versions of the Radial at a 55% discount and the 700 for a 53% discount. I have got no idea about how many have been made but Wessex Wagons told me that Bachmann's minimum production run is 500.

 

Perhaps only 400 people are buying a model but the minimum production run is 500. Perhaps the manufacturers price the models so that they can make a profit out of the first 400.

 

Sometimes manufacturers sell out of some of the more glamorous locomotives  the air-smoothed Merchant Navies which I think were high on the poll before 2013. 

Robin

 

Wessex Wagons comment may have been based on wagons which are relatively simple compared to a locomotive (or even on livery variations of an existing model).

 

I would expect locos to be produced in minimum quantities of at least 1000 to recover the higher design and tooling costs. Livery options, where the initial costs can be absorbed over a greater number of variations on the tooling might alter that.

 

How the model is costed for sale will also have an impact. Lets assume you make 1500, but base your selling price on making a acceptable overall profit out of wholesaling 1000. You then have 500 you can sell at cost simply to offload them or at a small "bonus" profit.

 

It is a complex subject and one of which the consumer is unaware,  seeing only the retail selling price changing over time but not, in reality, knowing why. The introduction, as it were, of pre-ordering also gives the manufacturer some indication of potential sales and profitability, thus helping them to decide on manufacturing volumes. Whether the initial reaction to a new model provides a long term indication of ongoing sales though, might be somewhat debatable.

 

Jol

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Hello everyone

 

The purpose of the Poll (slightly abridged here) is to provide an easy and enjoyable way for modellers and collectors to indicate which models they would like to see made and realistically wish to buy.

 

It gives us - as modellers and collectors - an overview of how we might be collectively thinking. The makers themselves will have a myriad of methods by which they receive market intelligence such as attendance at shows, reading magazines, getting emails, scanning through the various forums and even a dose of 'gut feeling'.

 

If The Poll was the only source of market information, then it might be possible to draw conclusions.

 

But we don't know if The Poll data matches manufacturer data...and they would never let on if it did, hence we never ask. They may over- or under-estimate the market...but most have years of sales data to partly base decisions upon. The retailers may under- or over-order, too. Or the pricing and 'fidelity to prototype' may be in question. And so on...

 

Without having all the facts at our disposal, much is speculation.

 

What we can say with certainty is that the majority of items coming to market are from the upper echelons of the results. It would be foolhardy of any maker to rely on just The Poll results and we have seen a number of items released/announced that don't fall within The Poll confines, such as Accurascale's Deltic and Oxford's rail-mounted gun.

 

Part of The Poll Team's unwritten purpose is to provide The Guide so that voters might have an unbiased and informative text from which to obtain context in what to many is a massively complex subject. The Poll is not solely about results per se.

 

Brian (on behalf of The 00 Poll Team)

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Sometimes manufacturers sell out of some of the more glamorous locomotives  the air-smoothed Merchant Navies which I think were high on the poll before 2013. 

 

Hello Robin

 

The Air-smooth Merchant Navy was 19th overall in 2013. It went up to 3rd overall in 2014. It was the most wanted SR steam loco that year.

 

Brian (on behalf of The 00 Poll Team)

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Thank you. I am sorry that I did not notice MN (air smooth) looking at the Wish List records. As nearly the only Pacific that has not been made in 00 gauge it filled a gap in the market and I am surprised that it had not been made before following the success of Tri-ang's TT gauge version. I think that the Merchant Navy would appeal to the average enthusiast and not just to readers of RM Web and the modelling magazines just like the Princess locomotive did in the 1950s when Tri-ang sold a  record 42,000.

 

I think that the U class and the Q class, which first and second in the SR poll this year will appeal to the same people who have bought 700s and N class locomotives. As interest in these wane perhaps the manufacturers will produce the U class and the Q class to replace them and expect similar sales.

 

I am modelling the Swanage Railway and the main British Railways locomotives used on the branch were the M7 for push-pull and goods, the 700 and Q for goods, N class possibly for semi fast trains, U class for the Basingstoke service and Bulleid light Pacifics for the Waterloo service. I have a Wills and Crownline Q class but these are not up to the standard of current ready to run models and are worn out and building a U class from a Wills Kit is beyond me. I expect there are others who have a stud of SR locos who would like a Q and U class to fill the gaps in their timetables. Perhaps the people who voted for the U and the Q did not have any preference between the two.

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Thanks Robin

 

Speaking personally, I voted for both of those and a number of others in the category as I would realistically buy them.

 

We know the 'what', 'when' and 'how' of The Poll as we list a range of items, we run at a stated time and the results show what items were selected.

 

What we don't know is 'who' voted or 'why' they voted for what they did. To obtain that data would be very interesting but would involve a mass of evaluation. At the end of the day, we have to take into account that The Team is unpaid....and that data collection is getting more towards real market research.

 

We have collected age and era data in the past, but soon decided to stick to the 'core content and make voting as easy as possible.

 

Brian (on behalf of The 00 Poll Team)

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There seems to be a lot of GWR 4-6-0s in Hattons Sale of the Century and more than 10 left of each model. This may suggest that more models have been supplied than there is a demand for and it may influence the manufacturers to produce fewer GWR models in the future.

 

In addition to what others have said, it is also likely past behaviour of large production runs will be an issue with this.

 

I suspect Hornby and Bachmann are having to adjust to the changing realities of the market, where it is no longer a case of producing what they announce in large numbers because the market will have to buy them.

 

As I said in a Hornby thread, in the last 12 months 34 new tooled items have been announced and I likely missed some.  That is a lot of choice for the hobby, and it inherently means production runs have to be smaller than when there would only be 10 new items a year.

 

It also means, as perhaps Hattons amongst other shops are learning, you have to be careful how much stock you order for your shelves because while you want some stock you could end up holding a lot of stock that won't sell.

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Hello everyone

 

Back in my posting #30, I said that I would be letting you have a table entitled The 00 Wishlist Poll Items Announced and/or Made 2013-2018 as soon as we could after Warley.

 

There were just a couple of announcements there and none came from our Poll lists (although the MMA/JNA Box Wagons were scheduled in for 2019). We did, however, get ‘official confirmation’ that Dapol is making GWR Streamlined Parcels Railcar W17W.

 

Because of this small number, we felt it would be more practical to leave publication until early January when we hope to include any announcements from Hornby and Bachmann. As our table is – in effect – a ‘5-year Report’, we hope you will agree that waiting just another six weeks will make better sense.

 

We will keep you informed of any further announcements and how they fared throughout the coming year.

 

That brings us to the 2019 Poll…

 

As many of you will know – due to time constraints on me – we didn’t run an N Poll this year. We have passed all that data free, gratis and for nothing to what we hope will become an effective and dedicated N Team in due course.

 

To concentrate more on our ‘core content’ of mainstream 00 British railway stock (note the lower case there) we had on our agenda the deletion of the both the Industrial and Underground categories which would give us 43 entries without extending the content.

 

We have now also been able to confirm that we won’t run the Underground category in 2019. We have spoken with the LURS Modelling Officer – who has kindly helped us since 2014 – and explained our restricted circumstances; he has graciously accepted the reasoning and fully understands. Many thanks, Fris – much appreciated!

 

Matters overtook us and we had to announce somewhat earlier than would have been ideal that we wouldn’t be running the Industrial category. As we took a little criticism for that decision, we would like to add here that we announced it as soon as was practical – if we had announced during the currency of The Poll, voting might have been affected. We would like to acknowledge that ‘Corbs’ has done much work and hope he will continue it for the benefit of the Industrial modelling community.

 

These ‘cuts’ might not please some but we would ask you to appreciate that it gives The Poll Team – as unpaid volunteers – a chance to get back to fully enjoying it and without the constant feeling that we are 'running on overload'.

 

OK…let’s look forward to plenty more superb models.

 

Brian (on behalf of The 00 Poll Team)

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Hello everyone

 

Back in my posting #30, I said that I would be letting you have a table entitled The 00 Wishlist Poll Items Announced and/or Made 2013-2018 as soon as we could after Warley.

 

There were just a couple of announcements there and none came from our Poll lists (although the MMA/JNA Box Wagons were scheduled in for 2019). We did, however, get ‘official confirmation’ that Dapol is making GWR Streamlined Parcels Railcar W17W.

 

Because of this small number, we felt it would be more practical to leave publication until early January when we hope to include any announcements from Hornby and Bachmann. As our table is – in effect – a ‘5-year Report’, we hope you will agree that waiting just another six weeks will make better sense.

 

We will keep you informed of any further announcements and how they fared throughout the coming year.

 

That brings us to the 2019 Poll…

 

As many of you will know – due to time constraints on me – we didn’t run an N Poll this year. We have passed all that data free, gratis and for nothing to what we hope will become an effective and dedicated N Team in due course.

 

To concentrate more on our ‘core content’ of mainstream 00 British railway stock (note the lower case there) we had on our agenda the deletion of the both the Industrial and Underground categories which would give us 43 entries without extending the content.

 

We have now also been able to confirm that we won’t run the Underground category in 2019. We have spoken with the LURS Modelling Officer – who has kindly helped us since 2014 – and explained our restricted circumstances; he has graciously accepted the reasoning and fully understands. Many thanks, Fris – much appreciated!

 

Matters overtook us and we had to announce somewhat earlier than would have been ideal that we wouldn’t be running the Industrial category. As we took a little criticism for that decision, we would like to add here that we announced it as soon as was practical – if we had announced during the currency of The Poll, voting might have been affected. We would like to acknowledge that ‘Corbs’ has done much work and hope he will continue it for the benefit of the Industrial modelling community.

 

These ‘cuts’ might not please some but we would ask you to appreciate that it gives The Poll Team – as unpaid volunteers – a chance to get back to fully enjoying it and without the constant feeling that we are 'running on overload'.

 

OK…let’s look forward to plenty more superb models.

 

Brian (on behalf of The 00 Poll Team)

 

Well sorted Brian. Good luck and thanks for 'the ride' so far.

Sincerely,

Phil

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.

 

One query.   For the Southern the D / D1, E / E1 and L / L1 4-4-0's are BASICALLY different bodies on three different chassis (roughly equivalent to the present H1 / H2  Atlantics.

 

So could space/numbers be saved by instead of having 6 locomotive choices there were only the three ?

 

.

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Hello Phil

 

Thanks for writing.

 

Whenever we conduct our annual 'full review' of The Poll content, we look to see where items can be 'split' if they have previously been 'combined'. No-one in The Team is a qualified model engineer, so we have to go on 'best educated guess' and looking at how similar models have been made in the past, bearing in mind that makers now seek to get as much as they can from any new investment via slip tools and liveries.

 

As a matter of 'over-arching policy', we are doing what we can year on year to get a clearer focus on individual items but keeping within reasonable limits - and that is about what we had this year (778 items fairly well spread across relevant categories).

 

We took the decision this year to 'split' D from E. They were 'combined' in 2016 and polled 230 votes. In 2018, the D polled 267 and the E garnered 147. Future results will be interesting to compare.

 

We referred to the changes within The Guide and noted that the D1 and E1 remained 'combined' and gave the reasons. Although the L and L1 share a chassis, the bodies are cosmetically different.

 

Other region's locos have similar factors to take into account, hence we list - for example - the Decorative Valance version of the Claud Hamilton 4-4-0, the two types of Caprotti Black 5 and have split D49/1 Hunt from D49/2 Shire. Within Freight, we split the three types of GWR Damo/Asmo and two types of SR Container Wagon (although we did keep the 9ft and 10ft wheelbase versions combined).

 

Bachmann has announced a range of Bulleid coaches, so we have adapted our list to encompass the Diag.2406 'Loose' BCK, the Diag.2017 15" Vent Open Third and Diag.2552 15" Vent Corridor First.

 

I have made a note on the agenda to re-visit as per your suggestion though. 

 

Brian (on behalf of The 00 Poll Team)

 

Edited 14.15 30.11.18 to correct what was stated as Diag.2015 TO to Diag.2017.

Edited by BMacdermott
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I was interested to see that the Underground Stock will not be included in the 2019 poll. It seemed to be a minority interest but some of the Underground Stock has reached preserved lines far outside the London area. For instance one Underground steam engine attracted a lot of interest on the Swanage Railway and it also hosted a 4TC set in London Transport livery. There are some Metropolitan Railway coaches on the Bluebell Railway.

 

I even bought a model of Sarah Siddons in Hattons' Sale of the Century although I would not have bought it for the recommended retail price.

 

Perhaps as people's disposable income and the amount of space for model railways goes down they have to concentrate on mainstream rolling stock from the big four onwards.

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Hello Robin

 

It was a considered and pragmatic decision to concentrate on 'core content' balanced with our stated purpose.

 

As we say in the Q&A, there are many subjects that could have a category, such as: Channel Tunnel; dock and military systems; airport inter-terminal systems; broad and narrow gauge trains; tram, tram-train, and Metro systems; heritage lines; Colonel Stephens; and ‘Thomas the Tank’.

 

We did once consider having a category titled 'Special Cases'... but then what is the definition of a special  case?

 

We are confident that our changes are for the best and it leaves open access for anyone who wants to run their own polls on their own subjects in their own time.

 

Brian (on behalf of The 00 Poll Team)

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Sadly, I fear separate polls for LT and Industrials will never carry the same weight as the main one as they just won't get the visibility or promotion. It's especially disappointing given how well the latter in particular did in the overall Top 50. 

 

Possibly reducing the chances of another widely-used industrial appearing while increasing the chances of, say, Leader seems a little peculiar to me. But what the hobby sees as "core content" has never been entirely rational :meeting:

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Hello Mark

 

Thanks for writing.

 

As we have often said, The Poll is not the only source of market information that makers might take into account. We have never listed 009, but that is now pretty much well-established with Bachmann, Peco and Heljan.

 

The Bulleid Leader was much talked about back in the old MREmag days; if we took her out, we could guarantee complaints. I have just checked back on the results from the days prior to this Team running The Poll. She was was pretty high up the rankings and many of what was above her have now been made, with others still high.

 

We have also often said that it doesn't much matter if an item gets consistently astronomically high votes - if a maker doesn't see profit, then we won't see it produced.

 

Brian (on behalf of The 00 Poll Team).

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Bachmann has announced a range of Bulleid coaches, so we have adapted our list to encompass the Diag.2406 'Loose' BCK, the Diag.2015 15" Vent Open Third and Diag.2552 15" Vent Corridor First.

 

​My heroes!!!!!! :superstition:  :sarcastichand: 

​Phil (the other one......)

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Thanks Phil

 

Your post alerted me to the fact that I had accidentally referred to Diag.2015 - it should be 2017, and I have corrected my post #189 accordingly.

 

Some colleagues and I were fortunate enough to attend one of the Bachmann 2018 Programme Launch Events in January. We were a tad surprised to see the announcement of the Diag.2019 10.1/4" vent TK. We had a long chat with them and expounded our theories as to why the 'Loose' BCK ought to be made and then followed that up with a mound of written info.

 

They certainly 'got the message' and we know it will be looked at for the future (terms & conditions apply, as they say!).

 

Brian (on behalf of The 00 Poll Team)

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Hello again Phil

 

I have just re-visited the notes we sent to Bachmann. 

 

Six of The Team are what might be called 'typical SR fans', so I asked them how many of each of Diag.2017 TO and Diag.2406 BCK they would buy - this was to help 'nudge' Bachmann in our direction. The results are what they would realistically buy:

 

Diag.2017 TO: 1-1-1-2-2-6 = 13

 

Diag.2406 BCK: 2-2-2-4-6-8 = 24

 

In other words, almost double for the BCK.

 

Brian (on behalf of The 00 Poll Team)

Edited by BMacdermott

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Whenever we conduct our annual 'full review' of The Poll content, we look to see where items can be 'split' if they have previously been 'combined'. No-one in The Team is a qualified model engineer, so we have to go on 'best educated guess' and looking at how similar models have been made in the past, bearing in mind that makers now seek to get as much as they can from any new investment via slip tools and liveries.

 

As a matter of 'over-arching policy', we are doing what we can year on year to get a clearer focus on individual items but keeping within reasonable limits - and that is about what we had this year (778 items fairly well spread across relevant categories).

 

We took the decision this year to 'split' D from E. They were 'combined' in 2016 and polled 230 votes. In 2018, the D polled 267 and the E garnered 147. Future results will be interesting to compare.

 

We referred to the changes within The Guide and noted that the D1 and E1 remained 'combined' and gave the reasons. Although the L and L1 share a chassis, the bodies are cosmetically different.

I have made a note on the agenda to re-visit as per your suggestion though. 

 

Brian (on behalf of The 00 Poll Team)

 

The SE 4-4-0s were such an important part of the railway scene their position in successive polls seems way below what might be expected and it is hard to see why this should be when other SE loco types have risen into view in the polls and been selected for production.

I suspect the decision to split D from E has possibly distorted what otherwise has been a rise in interest in the types and would ask the team to re-consider this.

I agree the L and L1s need to be separate but there is a split here between voters who think the L1 stands a greater chance because it was attempted by Triang, and those who think the L is a much more interesting design and would prefer that. Not much the Poll Team can do about that.

Quite why all producers have ignored the outstanding and existing beauty of the NRM D class is totally beyond me.

 

Anyway, thanks for reviewing this and exercising their proven judgement in these matters..

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Hello Forester

 

Thanks for writing with your views. As noted, it will be discussed. One of the perennial difficulties we face is that some voters want items 'combined' whereas others want 'splits'. Our policy (as far as is reasonably practical) is to 'split' wherever we can, particularly if there has been a 'combination' in the past.

 

I have attached the Comparison Table for SR Locos 2013-2018. As you will see, the SECR 4-4-0s are moving slowly upwards, and the D is in The Top 50 this year. All the others are now High Polling, whereas the L had been Low and Medium.

 

Bear in mind the following when looking at the table:

In 2013/14, we showed the D (only - without E)

In 2015/16, we showed D&E ('combined')

In 2018, we 'split' them to show D separately and E separately.

 

With the exception of the SECR 100-seater Non-corridor Third (Diag.52) - which has many uses away from the old SECR area - the 'Continental' coaches and R0/R1 stock remain towards the lower echelons.

 

Brian (on behalf of The 00 Poll Team)

2. Comparison Table SR Locos (2013-2018).pdf

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With the exception of the SECR 100-seater Non-corridor Third (Diag.52)

Sorry to be pedantic, but shouldn't that be described as a 'non-gangwayed' third? Main reason being that an open third with a gangway to adjoining coaches is also a non-corridor third.

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Hello Jane

 

Please see extract below from the text appertaining to SR Coaches category. We elected to use terms as applying within the general steam era. Hence, you will find in LNER Coaches we refer to gangwayed coaches as opposed to the more common LNER term of vestibuled carriages. In LMS, we use open coaches instead of the LMS term vestibuled coaches.

 

We did go into further detail in the Jargon Buster which accompanies The Poll each year. 

 

Brian (on behalf of The 00 Poll Team)

 

The Southern Railway used the term ‘pull and push’ whereas other companies tended to use ‘push-pull’ – although the GWR was different again in using ‘autocoach’ (or even ‘railmotor’). For editorial reasons within The Poll, we sometimes use the abbreviation PP. BR’s Southern Region used the terms corridor and non-corridor for gangwayed and non-gangwayed stock respectively.

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