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Hornby 2019 Speculation


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  • RMweb Gold

I reckon the mileage run by Class 50s on the main line in 2018 will far exceed Class 31, and probably rival Class 47 and 56.

No chance, the average ECS / tailgunner / inside pilot of a steam loco mileage of a WCRC 47 probably exceeds in a week what the class 50’s have done in a year.

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  • RMweb Gold

Not necessarily. For example if Hornby came up with an up-to-date "traditionally" powered 14XX then they'd benefit from a broader spread of potential buyers plus those who have hesitated over the alternative.

 

Stu

That, of course requires the exercise of hindsight in relation to the alternative. My example of the alternative happens to be just fine and dandy, but I understand it's not universally loved.

 

The fact remains that Hornby have left a 61xx-shaped open goal for the better part of 20 years and the biggest surprise is how long it's taken for anybody to have a go.

 

As I suggested earlier, Hornby would clearly stick with a new prairie that was almost "done" in the face of a duplicate being announced, but that's very different from doing one from a standing start on the off-chance that the competing item might somehow not be up to scratch. I don't reckon that Hornby's new top team would be daft enough to take that sort of gamble.

 

The conundrum with doing an all-new 14xx now would be, once you take away all the customers who are happy their old ones, the current Railroad one or the Hatton's/DJM model, is there enough potential demand left to make it worth bothering?

 

John

Edited by Dunsignalling
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Not necessarily. For example if Hornby came up with an up-to-date "traditionally" powered 14XX then they'd benefit from a broader spread of potential buyers plus those who have hesitated over the alternative.

 

Very few modellers are actually participants of online forums, thus very few people would have been aware of the issues with the 14xx.

 

Hattons, despite the fact that their 14xx arrived years ago, despite now selling through additional retailers, and despite a 6+ week massive sale, still have an abundance of 14xx in stock.

 

There is no market at this time for a new tooled 14xx.

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No chance, the average ECS / tailgunner / inside pilot of a steam loco mileage of a WCRC 47 probably exceeds in a week what the class 50’s have done in a year.

 

For some reason West Coast Railways have been airbrushed from my awareness - yes that lot do a fair amount of Brush Type 4 mileage.

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  • RMweb Gold

That, of course requires the exercise of hindsight in relation to the alternative. My example of the alternative happens to be just fine and dandy, but I understand it's not universally loved.

 

The fact remains that Hornby have left a 61xx-shaped open goal for the better part of 20 years and the biggest surprise is how long it's taken for anybody to have a go.

 

As I suggested earlier, Hornby would clearly stick with a new prairie that was almost "done" in the face of a duplicate being announced, but that's very different from doing one from a starting start on the off-chance that the competing item might somehow not be up to scratch. I don't reckon that Hornby's new top team would be daft enough to take that sort of gamble.

 

The conundrum with doing an all-new 14xx now would be, once you take away all the customers who are happy their old ones, the current Railroad one or the Hatton's/DJM model, is there enough potential demand left to make it worth bothering?

 

John

 

Possibly, given that many customers are not happy with their existing ones, Airfix types that have failed with pickup issues as well as more recent Hornby and Hatton's poor runners.  If the price could be kept below £70, and the loco ran reliably well, it'd probably return it's outlay; there is little amiss with the body toolings.

 

There's been a GW, alright mostly WR, open goal that is 94xx shaped since the demise of Lima and arguably earlier, and a class 120 dmu shaped one since the Big Bang.  A large prairie to modern standards is a risk H are probably unwilling to venture with the Dapol imminent, but who knows when Bachmann will actually turn up at market with a 94xx.  But for H to get in under the radar with one of these now would have needed a lot of top secret preparatory work, and I can't see them indulging in this against the background of their other problems, hopefully now mostly over.

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  • RMweb Premium

Having the tender already doesn't mean that it's easier to make another model.Once again having the tooling for a tender doesn't necessarily mean that it's much easier to make another locomotive

May I ask why not?

 

Yes, the tenders for the E4’s might have differed in certain aspects, but then so did those for the J15’s, and why I believe there are a few different types hung behind the models of them that Hornby have produced. In this respect therefore I was thinking that having suitable tooling for these might have some impact on the financial viability of producing a further design such as the E4 when otherwise it might prove not viable.

 

Izzy

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May I ask why not?

 

Yes, the tenders for the E4’s might have differed in certain aspects, but then so did those for the J15’s, and why I believe there are a few different types hung behind the models of them that Hornby have produced. In this respect therefore I was thinking that having suitable tooling for these might have some impact on the financial viability of producing a further design such as the E4 when otherwise it might prove not viable.

 

Izzy

 

Because Hornby has said not that long ago that it now has a full set of tooling for each model, to facilitate moving tooling around between factories. Yes, there will be CADs that won't need to be done again, but new metal would still need to be cut.

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Hornby will introduce an updated version of Live Steam - Live Diesel Electric.

 

A new modern diesel loco fitted with a miniature diesel engine, complete with alternator and electronics to drive the 12v motor(s)

It will be DCC controlled.

 

Keith

Haha! I can picture the railway room, thick with diesel exhaust as the enthusiasts clagg-it-up

Mal

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  • RMweb Gold

Possibly, given that many customers are not happy with their existing ones, Airfix types that have failed with pickup issues as well as more recent Hornby and Hatton's poor runners.  If the price could be kept below £70, and the loco ran reliably well, it'd probably return it's outlay; there is little amiss with the body toolings.

 

 

I get the impression that what you would like is just the old Airfix/Dapol/Hornby body with a better chassis under it?  

 

That's certainly the only route that might bring it in on your desired price point. An all-new version would inevitably run into, or very close to, three figures, just as the Hatton's model did.

 

Are there any old Airfix 14xx that still work? The last of mine died nearly a quarter century ago. I currently run one of the Hatton's/DJM breed and an old and got-at Dapol one.  

Edited by Dunsignalling
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Always enjoy reading these froth lists.

 

Like others, I reckon the SR Q 0-6-0 could be this year. Like to see a totally retooled Maunsell L1 4-4-0 to replace the Tri-ang one.

 

Am surprised that the Jones Goods hasn't been modelled in r-t-r yet.

 

The Devon Belle obeservation car sold well, so I'd go for a BR-rebuilt Beavertail in maroon.

 

Much as I'd like to see a 4-COR, think a 2-car electric set is more likely. For modern design, am surprised none of the 375/variants Electrostars are available in r-t-r.

 

Mal

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I reckon the mileage run by Class 50s on the main line in 2018 will far exceed Class 31, and probably rival Class 47 and 56.

 

 

No chance, the average ECS / tailgunner / inside pilot of a steam loco mileage of a WCRC 47 probably exceeds in a week what the class 50’s have done in a year.

 

Agreed that 47s will have done some mileage for WCRC, but also the work on the sleepers in Scotland, or tours for GBRf. Class 56s will have put in some milage for Colas too. Whereas theres one class 50 that's active on the mainline and some others that have done railtours, so they get photos taken when on a duty.

 

Whereas class 31s have pretty much been withdrawn and had their time on the network. Still the model was done when the class was active. There's the chances for other runs of popular liveries still...

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Other possible surprises - a Johnson Spinner : Hornby have form with bogie Singles, the Stirling Single is selling, there's a preserved example to scan and they survived until 1928 . And they are utterly beautiful ...

 

Just a comment on this. I was talking to one of the Hornby designers at Peterborough and mentioned scanning. They prefer not to scan as this records all lumps, bumps dents and other unwanted features which all need to be 'cleaned up' to make the drawings.

This chap said original drawings were preferred but he also described measuring the Ivatt City of Birmingham himself.

Another problem with scanning he described is the uniqueness of each engine as they are essentially handbuilt and seldom match drawings exactly. He cited the Grange where every photo that was examined showed a different shape to the firebox cladding. Cue the that's the wrong shape brigade.

An interesting conversation.

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Am surprised that the Jones Goods hasn't been modelled in r-t-r yet.

 

 

Mal

 

The Jones Goods is almost impossible to build in 4MM scale due to the non existent space between driving wheels. I doubt a manufacturer would get away with flangeless wheels nowadays.

 

 

 

 

 

Jason

Edited by Steamport Southport
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  • RMweb Gold

Just been messing about on my module based on Chard and it struck me that Hornby could do well if it produced a top notch GWR 57XX. The Bachmann one is certainly showing its age and alongside revamped B set coaches and/or a new Autocoach it should go down well in the sales department.

 

Godfrey

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For some reason West Coast Railways have been airbrushed from my awareness - yes that lot do a fair amount of Brush Type 4 mileage.

A WCRC Class 47/7 or 8 would be welcome because not only do they assist or provide ETH for steam rail tours but also work specials and empty stock moves in their own right.

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There was a plan on releasing a model of a F5 by the people making the new build. But it was cancelled due to a lack of interest.

 

 

 

 

Jason

 

As I said I can but hope!!! Stranger things have happened.

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  • RMweb Gold

Looking at the European and US manufacturers, they have a much heavier bias towards current locomotives/rolling stock. Are we in the UK so much more obsessed with the past or would Hornby get more sales by sticking with what younger people see out there on the real railway?

Edited by Joseph_Pestell
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Looking at the European and US manufacturers, they have a much heavier bias towards current locomotives/rolling stock. Are we in the UK so much more obsessed with the past or would Hornby get more sales by sticking with what younger people see out there on the real railway?

 

Depends how you define the past. If you draw a simple distinction between what's out there now and historical railways, the first are obviously straightforward but when it comes to historical railway modelling I think that there's enormous potential for more pre-grouping stuff rather than seaching the more obscure corners of British Railways - hence my suggestion that the imminent J36 might be followed by more of the same

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Reading through this thread I'm struck by how few of the suggested locos/units seem likely to make the sort of profits that Hornby needs.  I don't think this is an accident - I have the feeling that there aren't that many choices that would.  

 

I tend to mostly buy locos that suit my chosen place and time (cross-London in the 50s), but that does cover three regions (LMR, SR and ER) in both the steam and early diesel eras. Plus, like most others, I'm occasionally seduced by things I just can't resist (Sir William Stanier, the Met electric, the J70, etc). And yet, a few months ago, when I made a list of all the locos/units I would definitely buy if they became available, I could only come up with about fifteen, and most of those were niche enough to deter any sane manufacturer.  

 

Of those locos mentioned in his thread I can see the Princess and the Manor being popular enough, and the Electrostar too if they managed to keep the cost within bounds.  But a Saint, another 47, a B16?  Isn't it choices like this which have got Hornby into its current mess?  Perhaps I'm misunderstanding the economics, but it seems to me they need to do something different. Then again, perhaps the promised surprise is just that.   

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Looking at the European and US manufacturers, they have a much heavier bias towards current locomotives/rolling stock. Are we in the UK so much more obsessed with the past or would Hornby get more sales by sticking with what younger people see out there on the real railway?

Or, to put it another way, are Americans and continental Europeans obsessed with the novel?

 

I enjoy the current scene for what it is, but it's there to go out and observe in 12" to the foot scale, with all the smells, vibration, (real) sounds and interaction with the weather that entails. All of which is going to make any model look pretty insipid by comparison IMHO. Mind you, it does make research easier.

 

I prefer to model stuff I can't see full size any more. Heritage railways are great so far as they go, but they present, and do, many things differently to how they looked and worked on the day-to-day railway, whether those days were in the 1910s, the 1960s or any other decade (before, between or since) that takes your fancy.

 

Some of the character is there but not everything is, can, or even should, be "preserved", so an incomplete portrayal is inevitable, as is some mixing of eras.

 

Modelling provides the means to capture more of the flavour of railways as they were in the heydays of our individual choosing. That'll become equally true of the twenty-teens in due course. 

 

John

Edited by Dunsignalling
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Having the tender already doesn't mean that it's easier to make another model.

 

 

Once again having the tooling for a tender doesn't necessarily mean that it's much easier to make another locomotive

 

 

I'm not saying that it does, so much as it's one less thing to worry about to some extent - it must've been nice for Hornby to already have the tender tooling they're using for the SR olive green Lord Nelson.

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