Hornby 2019 Speculation

[Hroth]

Broad gauge..... The surprise is that they are going to do broad gauge.....

Irish, Spanish, Russian or Brunellian?

 

Just for clarification, you understand... 

[JSpencer]

Irish, Spanish, Russian or Brunellian?

 

Just for clarification, you understand... 

Proper Broad gauge with track spaced 26.5mm..... Wheels will be convertible to allow for the P4 version using 28.088888mm rails.

[newbryford]

Broad gauge..... The surprise is that they are going to do broad gauge.....

 

Which one - EM or P4?

[LNWR18901910]

Ex LMS Non Corridor Coaches BR Lined Maroon,  they have done the other two liveries,  why not these a must for 60s layouts.

LMS Non Corridor Coaches would be perfect for Pre-Grouping locomotives of the North Staffordshire, Midland, Caledonian, Glasgow & South Western, Furness, Lancashire & Yorkshire and the good-old London and North Western Railway companies!

[mdvle]

Reading through this thread I'm struck by how few of the suggested locos/units seem likely to make the sort of profits that Hornby needs.  I don't think this is an accident - I have the feeling that there aren't that many choices that would.  

 

...

 

Of those locos mentioned in his thread I can see the Princess and the Manor being popular enough, and the Electrostar too if they managed to keep the cost within bounds.  But a Saint, another 47, a B16?  Isn't it choices like this which have got Hornby into its current mess?

 

We don't know what, or more likely what combination of things, got Hornby to its current state (and speculation is off-topic for this thread).

 

But as you note, no one or two models will solve Hornby's problem.

 

In the US market for well over a decade there was requests for a high quality SD40-2, which for those unfamiliar with the US scene is the closest thing to a Class 47 in terms of numbers and where it was used.  The problem was that there were several models already available and so the "consensus" was that while none of the models were high quality the simple fact that there were multiple different ones on the market meant it wasn't financially viable for another model.

 

No surprise given the current topic, but a new high quality model did get announced by Scaletrains.com.  The head of ScaleTrains was asked on a podcast why they went against the conventional wisdom, and the reply was essentially because it was a 20-year-model.  There were enough SD40-2 used over the years that ScaleTrains will be able to sell this model, with minor tooling changes periodically, for the next 20 years.

 

That what a new 47/57, or 37, could represent to however decides to grab the market.  Profit on the first run, and then better profit on subsequent runs.

 

As for other models, like a B16 or Saint, still possible to make a profit on them but it can also drive sales of other Hornby products by driving traffic to the Hornby website, or even a Hornby section on a retailers website, or by having a retailer order some Hornby catalog items when they are placing their order for these new items.  Maybe a retailer has been thinking a couple of goods wagons might be useful to stock, but they don't meet a minimum order quantity so they don't get ordered.  But if the retailer is ordering 3 B16's then those goods wagons get ordered as well.

[mdvle]

Looking at the European and US manufacturers, they have a much heavier bias towards current locomotives/rolling stock. Are we in the UK so much more obsessed with the past or would Hornby get more sales by sticking with what younger people see out there on the real railway?

 

Different markets, so I would be careful about transferring buying patterns.

 

In the case of the US market the steam era is badly represented not so much because there isn't the demand but because the steam that is available tends to be either generic or big, making a complete layout difficult without either heavy kitbashing/scratchbuilding or going with brass.

 

Even then, I don't now that the claimed current is so true.  Yes, you can get almost up to date stuff, but a lot of the announcements in the last couple of years have been for the 70's +/- 10 years - RS11, SD40-2, C39-8, B36-7

 

As for what younger people see, well 90% of American youngsters probably never even see a train.

[Jack P]

Which one - EM or P4?

 

 

Either one would certainly be eyebrow raising!

[manna]

G'Day Folks

 

Haven't read every post yet, but I would like to see a J6, 0-6-0 tender engine.

 

A Sentinal, Steam railcar, all those great names.

 

Out of left field...................Ex GN six wheeler coaches or LNER Post Office coaches.

 

manna

[JZ]

Austin 7.

Class 124. Buffet and non buffet to be able to make an 8 car set.

Night Ferry Carriages and vans.

'Special' wagons, to add variety to freight trains.

[TravisM]

Different markets, so I would be careful about transferring buying patterns.

 

In the case of the US market the steam era is badly represented not so much because there isn't the demand but because the steam that is available tends to be either generic or big, making a complete layout difficult without either heavy kitbashing/scratchbuilding or going with brass.

 

Even then, I don't now that the claimed current is so true.  Yes, you can get almost up to date stuff, but a lot of the announcements in the last couple of years have been for the 70's +/- 10 years - RS11, SD40-2, C39-8, B36-7

 

As for what younger people see, well 90% of American youngsters probably never even see a train.

The trouble is with US steam is that it was almost built to order by the big steam builders of the day and with hundreds of railroads, a builder might have orders from two different railroads for the same wheel arrangement and look completely different. I remember asking years ago why different manufacturers kept churning out F units and I was told “ because they sell’

[The Stationmaster]

That, of course requires the exercise of hindsight in relation to the alternative. My example of the alternative happens to be just fine and dandy, but I understand it's not universally loved.

 

The fact remains that Hornby have left a 61xx-shaped open goal for the better part of 20 years and the biggest surprise is how long it's taken for anybody to have a go.

 

As I suggested earlier, Hornby would clearly stick with a new prairie that was almost "done" in the face of a duplicate being announced, but that's very different from doing one from a standing start on the off-chance that the competing item might somehow not be up to scratch. I don't reckon that Hornby's new top team would be daft enough to take that sort of gamble.

 

The conundrum with doing an all-new 14xx now would be, once you take away all the customers who are happy their old ones, the current Railroad one or the Hatton's/DJM model, is there enough potential demand left to make it worth bothering?

 

John

 

But if Hornby had started first (and don't forget their development cycle is c.2 years anyway) we would be looking at a decent job from them instead of the weird abortion that appeared in Dapol's CAD which to be honest was absolutely laughable and had looked to have been put together from a mixed box of photos of several different large prairie designs and a good dose of imagination (and has not subsequently reappeared in a more recognisable large prairie like form).  All depends really on how the 'new regime' at Sandwich/Margate think and how their decision process works - assuming of course they had anything to decide about in the first place.

 

We'll no doubt find out one way or the other in January but judging by Hornby's recent efforts I'd sooner see a large prairie from them than the nonsense which emerged in that Dapol CAD where about the only thing they got right was the wheel arrangement.  As for GW 4-6-0s I'm sure Hornby will be guided in their approach (unless things have changed with the new regime) by past sales and alas they went desperately wrong with the ;'King' by diving into Year 2/3 versions far too soon as reflected by retail prices.  A straight running plate 'Saint, so it doesn't 'look like other GWR 4-6-0s', would make good sense for 2019 in view of what is happening at Didcot but if it is going to happen at all I would think 2020 is more likely and even then it does have the potential problem when it comes to BR liveries which basically seem to have boiled down to unrelieved all over filth so a good chunk of current market might be seen as being missed (although I think it could actually sell well).

 

I reckon if we see any 4-6-0 from Hornby in 2019 it's more likely to hail from north of Shaftholme Jcn rather than south of the Thames (unless there is another easy option for them on the South Western side).

[davefrk]

The Jones Goods is almost impossible to build in 4MM scale due to the non existent space between driving wheels. I doubt a manufacturer would get away with flangeless wheels nowadays.

 

 

 

 

 

Jason

 

But didn't the Jones Goods have a flangeless centre driver anyway?

 

Dave.

[gismorail]

I'm hoping that Hornby might be up-scaling the Scaledale range to 0 gauge ...it would make sense 

[Legend]

I'd have thought a 94xx would be more likely than a Prairie . We know they measured one up some time ago . If they were a bit fleet of foot it wouldn't be hard to beat Bachmann getting one out . The Bachy one is probably still 2 years away. First one on the market would reap the rewards

 

Other than that I reckon a Princess is on the cards and a big diesel or electric to balance the range . I'd bet on an updated 86 now they've seen the success of 87.

[Pandora]

A steam outline camera locomotive,  detachable  smokebox door as the lens cover,  mobile phone camera modules are low cost items,  reattach the smokebox door to return the loco to a contemporary model

[ThaneofFife]

I'd bet on an updated 86 now they've seen the success of 87.

 

has it been acknowledged as a success this early on?   good reports of the model might be great but that a few people here saying its a good model is no indication of a models success.  Have Hornby come out and said as much?   

 

I know many people here myself included would love to see a new 86 based on the 86/2 (plus 86/3 and 86/4) as Heljan are retooling their 86 to as built spec.  

[wombatofludham]

has it been acknowledged as a success this early on?   good reports of the model might be great but that a few people here saying its a good model is no indication of a models success.  Have Hornby come out and said as much?   

 

I know many people here myself included would love to see a new 86 based on the 86/2 (plus 86/3 and 86/4) as Heljan are retooling their 86 to as built spec.  

 

The question of sales success is to a point irrelevant when it comes to the 2019 announcements as any decision to "parallel tool" the 86/2 to follow on from the 87 would have been taken some years ago.  I suspect that when they did the research and CADS for the 87 they would have researched the 86 at the same time, thereby saving time and money on duplicating the effort some years later.  Hornby have form for creating new, modern standard "remakes" of old favourites and given their current 86/2 is only a couple of years younger than the old Lima 87 it would fall into that concept nicely.  Also, a contemporary standard 86/2 would help stimulate sales of the 87 and vice versa, an 86/2, 87 and Bachmann's 85 allow you to contemplate a typical WCML themed layout so if Hornby want to be on the ground floor of the newly emerging AC electric market, it really is a no-brainer.

 

Plus the 86/2 has names which, for some bizarre reason, seems to be attractive to some.  I just hope that if an 86/2 is announced this year it carries the name "Josiah Wedgwood", given that according to my family tree research, I'm his 7x great grand nephew.  Must have a model of the family loco especially as it's an 86...

[Joseph_Pestell]

Proper Broad gauge with track spaced 26.5mm..... Wheels will be convertible to allow for the P4 version using 28.088888mm rails.

 

I doubt it will be happening. But technically, this is not so silly as it sounds. To get a broad gauge loco round R2 curves one would have to make serious compromises with gauge, flangeways, etc. Even 26.5mm might not be possible.

 

And while wheels might be made adaptable, the splashers on the locos would be a massive problem.

[RogerTE]

Although it would be a departure from Hornby's normal "sphere of influence" Heljan have shown there is enough interest in a certain London-based railway and there are 2 steam locos that are available for scanning, as well as several items of coaching stock..

[Legend]

has it been acknowledged as a success this early on?   good reports of the model might be great but that a few people here saying its a good model is no indication of a models success.  Have Hornby come out and said as much?   

 

I know many people here myself included would love to see a new 86 based on the 86/2 (plus 86/3 and 86/4) as Heljan are retooling their 86 to as built spec.

Isn't it sold out? That's a success

[Legend]

The question of sales success is to a point irrelevant when it comes to the 2019 announcements as any decision to "parallel tool" the 86/2 to follow on from the 87 would have been taken some years ago.  I suspect that when they did the research and CADS for the 87 they would have researched the 86 at the same time, thereby saving time and money on duplicating the effort some years later.  Hornby have form for creating new, modern standard "remakes" of old favourites and given their current 86/2 is only a couple of years younger than the old Lima 87 it would fall into that concept nicely.  Also, a contemporary standard 86/2 would help stimulate sales of the 87 and vice versa, an 86/2, 87 and Bachmann's 85 allow you to contemplate a typical WCML themed layout so if Hornby want to be on the ground floor of the newly emerging AC electric market, it really is a no-brainer.

 

Plus the 86/2 has names which, for some bizarre reason, seems to be attractive to some.  I just hope that if an 86/2 is announced this year it carries the name "Josiah Wedgwood", given that according to my family tree research, I'm his 7x great grand nephew.  Must have a model of the family loco especially as it's an 86...

Good point . and going on that basis it should reinforce sales of their Mk3, Mk2e and Mk3 DVT. But do Hornby think in such an inclusive way. The company that brings you HST Power cars but not enough coaches.

[298]

Although it would be a departure from Hornby's normal "sphere of influence" Heljan have shown there is enough interest in a certain London-based railway and there are 2 steam locos that are available for scanning, as well as several items of coaching stock..

If you are referring to the Met, I wouldn't hold out much hope- despite Dreadnoughts featuring quite highly in the wish list poll, their motive power being on sale at a Liverpool retailer shows at best there needs to be more joined up thinking and the market for them is currently saturated.

 

Personally I think Hornby is planning something more left field and possibly more stand alone- guided road vehicles or animated scenes perhaps?

[Steamport Southport]

But didn't the Jones Goods have a flangeless centre driver anyway?

 

Dave.

 

Definitely flanged in the second photo on here.

 

https://hrlocomotives.livejournal.com/2070.html

 

 

 

Jason

[The Johnster]

Isn't it sold out? That's a success

 

No, it's a failure to anticipate demand, loss of business, and irritating to customers.  Bad business practice despite it being given the best positive spin possible by marketing!  It may not make a loss, but fails to exploit available profit.  It'll always happens sometimes, as it is impossible to accurately predict the market without a crystal ball (and I have a suspicion they don't really work either!), but it's not a success!

[locoholic]

My money's on a Crampton loco, like "Liverpool"!