Hornby 2019 Speculation

[Hroth]

As yet, I haven’t been 3D scanned...

 

Perhaps Santa will send you to Modelu.... 

[97403_Ixion]

Hi all,

 

I don't normally try to guess at these things but I'll give it a go...

 

Personally, I'm not sure there will be much 'new tool' stuff but more re-liveries as these are making use of current investments and lower financial outlay.

Highlights would be:

 

Class 31  -  31601 in DCRail Grey  OR  'Wessex Trains' pink (maybe with coaches?)

Class 50  -  Laira Blue 50019

Class 60  -  DB  red OR GBRf 60095

Class 67  -  67021/67024 British Pullman chocolate/cream  OR  67023 'Stella' in Colas (unless there was a reason why they changed the loco choice last time?)

Class 87  -  87002 Caledonian Sleeper  OR  older InterCity colours

Class 153  -  'Heart of Wessex'

Class 800 IET  -  800008 'Pride' + 1 other

 

Train Pack  -  'Goodbye OOC' set twin pack of: 'Old Oak Common' 43093 in GWR green and 43185 in Swallow I/C, maybe with 'Last HST' headboard

 

More of a hope - a triple coach pack to fulfil the Class 800 Test Train... There are a number of packs still around on sale, including Hornby's own website!  It was a pity they didn't release the full set at the time but maybe they can produce a coach pack to help sell off the remaining driving units as well as appeal to those already with a set.  There would be little economic sense producing more coach packs than the original 'Limited Edition' driving units though...

 

If I did have to guess new tooling:

Mk5 coaches  -  (goes in line with Hornby targeting new vehicle types)

Class 91 (to align with Bachmann Class 90)

 

I would like to think they would produce a new DMU/EMU as people have said before but many (not all) units require more than two vehicles and I don't think the investment would be wise with a risk of low sales in the current climate.  Single car units, such as the 121, 122 and 128 have already been covered by others whilst Hornby already have the 153 in their pocket, which still has liveries available... license depending.

 

So, I'd say more re-liveries of their current range with little new tooling - and there is plenty of choice to be had.

 

Whatever they produce, I am in no doubt there will be something of interest for most people.  Hornby is traditionally a family-oriented company and has a lot to be thanked for introducing the younger members into the hobby (me included) and hopefully will continue to do so for many years to come.

 

Looking forward to January 2019!

 

Cheers,

Ixion.

[Steamport Southport]

They did indeed start life with flangeless centre drivers.  'Highland Locos' by Peter Tatlow out of M C V Allchin says "some engines were fitted with flanges to the middle wheels...…" but gives no indication as to when.  "Some" implies that some stayed flangeless to the end.

 

Chris KT

 

It says similar in the RCTS book.

 

"The centre pair of driving wheels were flangeless but in some cases thin flanges were fitted much later, perhaps when a number of the engines came to be regularly used on the Skye line."

 

 

No indication of which ones though. 

 

It also mentions that 17926 was running around with green wheels in 1938 which had presumably been swapped with 103.

 

 

I think it now has flangeless drivers again so when it was withdrawn it was possibly "put back" to close to original condition.

 

 

 

Jason

[GordonC]

Hi all,

 

I don't normally try to guess at these things but I'll give it a go...

 

Personally, I'm not sure there will be much 'new tool' stuff but more re-liveries as these are making use of current investments and lower financial outlay.

Highlights would be:

 

Class 31  -  31601 in DCRail Grey  OR  'Wessex Trains' pink (maybe with coaches?)

Class 50  -  Laira Blue 50019

Class 60  -  DB  red OR GBRf 60095

Class 67  -  67021/67024 British Pullman chocolate/cream  OR  67023 'Stella' in Colas (unless there was a reason why they changed the loco choice last time?)

Class 87  -  87002 Caledonian Sleeper  OR  older InterCity colours

Class 153  -  'Heart of Wessex'

Class 800 IET  -  800008 'Pride' + 1 other

 

Train Pack  -  'Goodbye OOC' set twin pack of: 'Old Oak Common' 43093 in GWR green and 43185 in Swallow I/C, maybe with 'Last HST' headboard

 

More of a hope - a triple coach pack to fulfil the Class 800 Test Train... There are a number of packs still around on sale, including Hornby's own website!  It was a pity they didn't release the full set at the time but maybe they can produce a coach pack to help sell off the remaining driving units as well as appeal to those already with a set.  There would be little economic sense producing more coach packs than the original 'Limited Edition' driving units though...

 

If I did have to guess new tooling:

Mk5 coaches  -  (goes in line with Hornby targeting new vehicle types)

Class 91 (to align with Bachmann Class 90)

 

I would like to think they would produce a new DMU/EMU as people have said before but many (not all) units require more than two vehicles and I don't think the investment would be wise with a risk of low sales in the current climate.  Single car units, such as the 121, 122 and 128 have already been covered by others whilst Hornby already have the 153 in their pocket, which still has liveries available... license depending.

 

So, I'd say more re-liveries of their current range with little new tooling - and there is plenty of choice to be had.

 

Whatever they produce, I am in no doubt there will be something of interest for most people.  Hornby is traditionally a family-oriented company and has a lot to be thanked for introducing the younger members into the hobby (me included) and hopefully will continue to do so for many years to come.

 

Looking forward to January 2019!

 

Cheers,

Ixion.

 

I'd really have to question whether more unusual liveries for Class 31s would be a good idea after the DCR Class 31 seemed to end up in the bargain bins. Surely more common liveries like 31/4s in BR Blue or Intercity Mainline liveries (and so far not produced) would really stand a better chance of being successful

[robmcg]

Perhaps Hornby are going to do a fine finer scale re-issue of Lord of The Isles?

 

Ah but what about the Precursor, various 'Great Race' 1895 locos,   and other gorgeous examples of Victoriana?

 

Where will it all end, that's what I want to know.      Perdition and ruin stalks us!

 

I'll have  weathered rebuilt Merchant Navy with no plates please....   

 

 

 

...as well as an SECR D and a couple of choice LNWR Webbs.  

 

And after lunch we can go to the pub.

[33212]

I'd really have to question whether more unusual liveries for Class 31s would be a good idea after the DCR Class 31 seemed to end up in the bargain bins. Surely more common liveries like 31/4s in BR Blue or Intercity Mainline liveries (and so far not produced) would really stand a better chance of being successful

 

even just the rail freight grey with yellow ends (pre red stripe) would be great

[uax6]

It says similar in the RCTS book.

 

"The centre pair of driving wheels were flangeless but in some cases thin flanges were fitted much later, perhaps when a number of the engines came to be regularly used on the Skye line."

 

 

No indication of which ones though. 

 

It also mentions that 17926 was running around with green wheels in 1938 which had presumably been swapped with 103.

 

 

I think it now has flangeless drivers again so when it was withdrawn it was possibly "put back" to close to original condition.

 

 

 

Jason

 

From what I understand, some Big Goods were fitted with flanged drivers to prevent this axle from dropping off the road when used on the Kyle Road. This Road had much tighter curves than the rest of the railway.

 

It should be able to work out which ones, from looking at the allocation of the Big Goods shown in the back of the RCTS books....

 

Andy G

[Steamport Southport]

From what I understand, some Big Goods were fitted with flanged drivers to prevent this axle from dropping off the road when used on the Kyle Road. This Road had much tighter curves than the rest of the railway.

 

It should be able to work out which ones, from looking at the allocation of the Big Goods shown in the back of the RCTS books....

 

Andy G

 

It's only got the allocations for 1919. The book suggests that locomotives were swapping wheels after 103 had been withdrawn. Hence the comment about green wheels.

 

 

 

Jason

[uax6]

There's allocation for the mid thirties as well in one of the volumes, and the LMS were still swinging wheelsets around then....

 

Andy G

[Steamport Southport]

There's allocation for the mid thirties as well in one of the volumes, and the LMS were still swinging wheelsets around then....

 

Andy G

 

Ah. Didn't see that page. You would have thought they would have put them together...

 

 

 

PS. LMS black one please.

 

 

 

Jason

Edited December 18, 2018 by Steamport Southport

[Robin Brasher]

That just isn't how it works any more. The commercial reality of offshore batch production dictates that, so long as costs are met, it's better to make (for instance) 500 less than the market wants than be left with 500 it won't absorb. That way you make the return you budgeted for when you embarked on the project. Predictability is king and any extra profit you might have made on a greater quantity, if they all sold quickly with minimal discounting, is pie-in-the-sky.

 

The loss of an unquantifiable potential profit is far less damaging to Hornby and/or retailers than incurring real costs carrying dead stock that sits around unsold for months or years, until it has to be dumped cheaply onto a market that didn't want it at or close to r.r.p. 

 

When it does get dumped, the money spent might have otherwise been directed at newer releases sold with a better margin. 

 

 

'In the 1950s Hornby Dublo used to take old Hornby Dublo locomotives in part exchange for new ones. The firm did not sell on the second hand locomotives but it threw them away so that the market would not get flooded with second hand locomotives and customers had no alternative but to buy a new Hornby Dublo locomotive' Robin.

Edited December 18, 2018 by Robin Brasher

[Jammy2305]

A steam loco in a pre-grouping livery that isn't from a Southern constituent or only relevant to the preservation scene?

 

*Goes back to the corner and grumbles about a lack of GER blue Y14s*

 

 

- James

[Dunsignalling]

Reply to Post 313, by Robin Brasher

 

Such a "scrappage scheme" would be all very well if the industry worked now as it did then, with a very narrow range (by todays standards) of models that almost never went out of production.

 

Nowadays, the variety of new models, and scarcity resulting from small production runs lead to products of that nature (i.e, the Chinese-made ones) being quite sought after so long as they are in good condition, with the values of some rarer examples matching or exceeding the cost of new ones. Even rough examples retain a sometimes surprising value as a source of spares which are often hard or impossible to come by new. Some tenders will easily fetch £40 or more, on their own. 

 

I couldn't see any buy-to-break deal offering even a quarter of what I could realistically get (for instance) for my rebuilt West Countries by selling them privately on the second-hand market.

 

Also, of course, the non-trade-in prices of new locos would have to rise to pay for such a scheme. 

 

John

Edited December 19, 2018 by Dunsignalling

[gelboy45]

Bullied 4 Sub....

 

Gerry

[Purley Oaks]

Nowadays, the variety of new models, and scarcity resulting from small production runs lead to products of that nature (i.e, the Chinese-made ones) being quite sought after so long as they are in good condition, with the values of some rarer examples matching or exceeding the cost of new ones. Even rough examples retain a sometimes surprising value as a source of spares which are often hard or impossible to come by new. Some tenders will easily fetch £40 or more, on their own.

Indeed, the Clan springs to mind; I was expecting/hoping that Hornby would make other examples but looks like that won't happen unless they find those factory sets... It's an excellent r-t-r model imo, but probably isn't worth them making any from new.

[Clearwater]

On large prairies, one approach that would be an surprise would be to say “ta da. Here it is. Ships next week.” If they did have one under development when Dapol announced,if Hornby were already past the point of no return,eg started tooling, rather than can the model or counter announce, they could have opted to finish the development and back themselves to get to market before Dapol. Being able to make a splash and have some additional sales in 2019 would be very interesting.

[Ceptic]

Bullied 4 Sub....

 

Gerry

Or a 2-NOL. Hornby has the LSWR loco hauled stock that these units were converted from. 

[The Stationmaster]

Bullied 4 Sub....

 

Gerry

 

Poor thing, isn't there a policy against that sort of behaviour? 

[Hroth]

Poor thing, isn't there a policy against that sort of behaviour? 

 

its why he left for the Southern, Thompson was mean to him.......

[Mallard60022]

its why he left for the Southern, Thompson was mean to him.......

 

No that isn't quite correct. Thompson was trying to 'convert' him...…………………..and Bulleid had seen the A2/3s 

Edited December 19, 2018 by Mallard60022

[Dunsignalling]

On large prairies, one approach that would be an surprise would be to say “ta da. Here it is. Ships next week.” If they did have one under development when Dapol announced,if Hornby were already past the point of no return,eg started tooling, rather than can the model or counter announce, they could have opted to finish the development and back themselves to get to market before Dapol. Being able to make a splash and have some additional sales in 2019 would be very interesting.

Personally, I hope that won't turn out to be the case because having both Hornby and Dapol making one would waste production slots, meaning something else I might want not getting made at all.....

 

With the new-build Saint nearing completion I reckon that's the odds-on GWR release for 2020 unless it gets announced for 2019.

 

I think a Manor or even a fully retooled Hawksworth County may be more likely in this round of announcements, though.

 

Off-the-wall possibility, requiring relatively little new tooling,  the Atlantic version of the Star.....

 

John

Edited December 19, 2018 by Dunsignalling

[Mallard60022]

Personally, I hope that won't turn out to be the case because having both Hornby and Dapol making one would waste production slots, meaning something else I might want not getting made at all.....

 

With the new-build Saint nearing completion I reckon that's the odds-on GWR release for 2020 unless it gets announced for 2019.

 

I think a Manor or even a fully retooled Hawksworth County may be more likely in this round of announcements, though.

 

John

 

Proper job County (Hawksworth) would be excellent thank you.

P

[Clearwater]

Personally, I hope that won't turn out to be the case because having both Hornby and Dapol making one would waste production slots, meaning something else I might want not getting made at all.....

 

With the new-build Saint nearing completion I reckon that's the odds-on GWR release for 2020 unless it gets announced for 2019.

 

I think a Manor or even a fully retooled Hawksworth County may be more likely in this round of announcements, though.

 

John

I absolutely agree a Saint makes total sense given GWS’ progress and the dreadful 80s effort.

 

On production slots, I don’t think that is an issue. From other threads and how quickly Kernow were able to get things like the Bulleid diesel into production, China doesn’t seem to be operating at full capacity. I don’t think there are many of the commissioners saying “we’re being delayed because of a lack of slots” I feel the problem is more a lack of capital from the likes of Hornby who simply can’t poir the money into toolings given their cash position. Others the constraint may be more human capital - not so much the cads but the checking of the cads etc which is the time consuming element of the process.

 

David

[Dunsignalling]

The likelihood of a Saint in this or the next tranche of announcements throws up questions about coaches for one to haul. Suggestions?

 

(Ducks behind avalanche wall).

 

John   

[Dunsignalling]

I absolutely agree a Saint makes total sense given GWS’ progress and the dreadful 80s effort.

 

On production slots, I don’t think that is an issue. From other threads and how quickly Kernow were able to get things like the Bulleid diesel into production, China doesn’t seem to be operating at full capacity. I don’t think there are many of the commissioners saying “we’re being delayed because of a lack of slots” I feel the problem is more a lack of capital from the likes of Hornby who simply can’t poir the money into toolings given their cash position. Others the constraint may be more human capital - not so much the cads but the checking of the cads etc which is the time consuming element of the process.

 

David

Agreed. It's not so much the availability of slots but how many projects Hornby can afford to pursue at once that would determine such choices. Either way, a duplicated Prairie is likely to reduce the figure by one.

 

There may also be a finite number of new loco releases per annum that it might not be prudent to exceed from a supply-and-demand standpoint..

 

 

John

Edited December 19, 2018 by Dunsignalling