Hornby 2019 Speculation

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

...I feel the problem is more a lack of capital from the likes of Hornby who simply can’t poir the money into toolings given their cash position...

Actually the situation is the complete opposite. Hornby are paying a fee for a loan facility whether they take it up or not. So investment capital is available, and the only reasonable path now is to quickly use that money to bring to market sufficient volume of profitable products to recover the business into a stable and solvent condition. It is pretty much last roll of the dice in short. Get it right and the business continues, back the wrong horses and it is game over for the business as presently constituted.

 

I am expecting a significant product announcement list for the next couple of years, and there need to be some surprises among them, because 'same old, same old' isn't going to cut it. (More GWR 4-6-0s when the most recent flopped? I am always prepared to be surprised but that reads like 'market surfeited' to me.)

[Clearwater]

Actually the situation is the complete opposite. Hornby are paying a fee for a loan facility whether they take it up or not. So investment capital is available, and the only reasonable path now is to quickly use that money to bring to market sufficient volume of profitable products )

Not sure I wholly agree with you. There is a considerable difference between having undrawn loan lines (and yes you pay for those whether drawn or not as the bank looks to earn a return on its capital - as an aside the risk weighted assets for a Hornby loan will be higher than for other companies) and whether you can use them. There will be limitations on how and when Hornby can use those funds and there will likely be “drawstops” that may prevent the facility being drawn if the financial covnenants (historic and projected) are already in breach or would be in breach if the facility is drawn: ie the bank doesn’t want to lend good money after bad. As such, if trading has been below expectations, they may not be able to drawdown on the banking facility.

 

Edit:

I think net debt increased substantially last year as the operating loss was funded through debt. If that loss is forecast to continue, then they may need a chunk of their undrawn lines to meet that cash outflow. Ie before any capex on toolings etc.

 

Obviously I hope I’m wrong on their financial position and we see loads of new models announced with imminent delivery dates but I’m sceptical on the extent of financial freedom they have

 

David

Edited December 19, 2018 by Clearwater

[Legend]

Not sure that when the OP invited 2019 Hornby speculation he meant whether they would draw down the loan or not.

[Co-tr-Paul]

2019 Christmas wagon......

 

 

 

 

(may have already been posted but cant be bothered to go back all those pages !!}

[The Stationmaster]

I absolutely agree a Saint makes total sense given GWS’ progress and the dreadful 80s effort.

 

On production slots, I don’t think that is an issue. From other threads and how quickly Kernow were able to get things like the Bulleid diesel into production, China doesn’t seem to be operating at full capacity. I don’t think there are many of the commissioners saying “we’re being delayed because of a lack of slots” I feel the problem is more a lack of capital from the likes of Hornby who simply can’t poir the money into toolings given their cash position. Others the constraint may be more human capital - not so much the cads but the checking of the cads etc which is the time consuming element of the process.

 

David

 

There seems to be plenty of capacity in China with some factories positively crying out for work and offering good deals to some people in order to get it.  Mind you from what I've heard they do like to be paid for their efforts and paying when the money is asked for seemingly can make a difference to the speed with which projects are delivered - so yes, straight back to the point about capital and having it available at the right time..

[Wickham Green]

Indeed, the Clan springs to mind; I was expecting/hoping that Hornby would make other examples but looks like that won't happen unless they find those factory sets... It's an excellent r-t-r model imo, but probably isn't worth them making any from new.

.......... not until 'Hengist' steams, at least !

[The Stationmaster]

Actually the situation is the complete opposite. Hornby are paying a fee for a loan facility whether they take it up or not. So investment capital is available, and the only reasonable path now is to quickly use that money to bring to market sufficient volume of profitable products to recover the business into a stable and solvent condition. It is pretty much last roll of the dice in short. Get it right and the business continues, back the wrong horses and it is game over for the business as presently constituted.

 

I am expecting a significant product announcement list for the next couple of years, and there need to be some surprises among them, because 'same old, same old' isn't going to cut it. (More GWR 4-6-0s when the most recent flopped? I am always prepared to be surprised but that reads like 'market surfeited' to me.)

 

I don't think the 'King' flopped as such but Hornby made one of their perennial mistakes and charged into Year2/Year3 production when the market was probably sated or very near to it, something that in the past they have been far too good at doing with the consequences littering shelves at various retailers plus their expensive warehouse facility.   And we get such nonsense as the 'Signature' trainset range which is, to quote a current ad 'aimed squarely at new to the hobby enthusiasts' who are presumably easy to con into buying a B17 in early BR livery (Year 2 or 3 over produced?) along with 3 pristine PO wagons and a Conflat+BD container plus an ex SR cattle wagon (Year 2 over produced?) and no brake van.   

[Wickham Green]

Or a 2-NOL. Hornby has the LSWR loco hauled stock that these units were converted from. 

Er - no - the 2NOL ( and roughly contemporary 3-car suburban units ) were converted from 'similar' stock to the 58' rebuilds that Hornby produce ........................ which doesn't mean that some of the elements of the CAD couldn't be transcribed. [ Bogies, no problem anyway ! ]

[MikeParkin65]

I don't think the 'King' flopped as such but Hornby made one of their perennial mistakes and charged into Year2/Year3 production when the market was probably sated or very near to it, something that in the past they have been far too good at doing with the consequences littering shelves at various retailers plus their expensive warehouse facility.  

Not sure I agree with this in all cases. It applies to loco's that look the same (ie black K1's) or look the same and have a suspect rendition of their livery (Kings and other GWR 460s) but not to well made popular subjects  - (for example Rebuiltr Bullieds)

 

If Hornby had made a BR Green 46257, another BR maroon example and maybe LMS black 6256 I am sure they would have sold well this year.

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

Not sure that when the OP invited 2019 Hornby speculation he meant whether they would draw down the loan or not.

 

It is civil, there's no ridicule, and underpins the OP's intent that we speculate across the range of categories with a generous release list.

 

And i feel that this is particularly covered by:

 

...The Surprising Thing

 

 Which might just be that Hornby's management is sufficiently in control of their situation that the applicable terms and conditions enable capital expenditure? Without this there's going to be precious little to speculate about from Hornby in my opinion.

[Pandora]

The Surprising Thing

 

The crux of the matter,  those who are privy to the inside knowledge are not coming forward, and many of the suggestions are too contemporary to truly raise the eyebrows.

 

My   guess is a very different approach,  such as a locos  which never got beyond the drawing board,   every famous designer had "locos which never were" .

[TravisM]

The Surprising Thing[/u

 

My   guess is a very different approach,  such as a locos  which never got beyond the drawing board,   every famous designer had "locos which never were" .

That include the proposed BR Riddles Standard 2-8-2?

[Mark Saunders]

I'll be happy with the introduction of a new chassis for the RCH 21' 6" over headstocks, 12' wheel base  wagon chassis!

[Robin Brasher]

A Southern Q class has been high on the wanted list for a while and the model railway companies may have measured the prototype on the Bluebell line. The picture shows my 0 gauge Ace Q class at the Hornby Railway Collectors Club meeting at Boadstone last night. The model sold well. It is a good runner and you can leave it running for 12 hours with 48 goods wagons. It has working lights which can be switched on or off to represent a goods or passenger train. I think that the model will sell well as it was built by the Southern Railway and so could probably have been seen on all parts of the Southern Railway.

 

Looking at the Ace Trains website http://www.acetrainslondon.com./home.html I see that Ace are producing some other items that a lot of people would like to see Hornby produce.

 

These include an authentic rake of the blue Coronation Scot and a British Railways crimson and cream Bulleid Tavern car and Restaurant car. If there is sufficient demand for these in 0 gauge there may well be a demand in 00 gauge.

[Hroth]

Christmas 2020 will be the 70th anniversary of the first Rovex train set, made for Marks&Sparks.

 

Earlier it was suggested that the "surprise" might be a recreation of the primitive "Princess Elizabeth" model.  Given this milestone in the history of British model trains, perhaps Hornby is proposing to recreate that first train set for Christmas 2020?

 

 

 

( Source http://www.tri-ang.co.uk/ind3.html )

 

It would fit nicely into the new Signature range!

 

[robmcg]

.......... not until 'Hengist' steams, at least !

 

If Hornby did recover the Clan tooling and it all worked the cost of assembly would be high.

 

My guess is existing tooling new paint and such as a blue original Merchant Navy to bring in cash. As well as such as the delectable new Nelsons and J36.

 

What could possibly go wrong?

 

edit; I still look forward to 7 Jan with child-like anticipation 

Edited December 19, 2018 by robmcg

[adb968008]

Especially as they now have an excellent J50 mechanism layout in CAD to match the distorted dimensions of the Lima body, which was mangled to fit Lima's correct wheelbase J50 mechanism. ;-).

 

Quite possible that Lima may have ditched the tools long before that business came into Hornby's hands, since they gave up on UK steam models very early?

Lima produced steam locos from the old steam tools in the 1990’s.

They didn’t sell well, but Lima did release models included Pannier as running number 9401 GWR Green, Crab lined black as 42760 and a King 6012 King Edward VI.

 

The toolings are very much Railroad only, and with so many other Railroad models to go with, with more standardised Hornby 1980’s components, retooling these would probably be much cheaper than making bespoke chassis for these.

 

It was hinted at a few years ago that Pannier 9400 had been measured at Swindon (various obliques of tape measures on parts of 9400 appeared), though I don’t see the logic in two models of a 9400 going head to head, and Bachmann announced theirs some time ago,especially when others exist, like a 15xx etc... that said history tends to err towards the first to market wins the market, even if later models look better.. bird in the hand.

Edited December 19, 2018 by adb968008

[adb968008]

That just isn't how it works any more. The commercial reality of offshore batch production dictates that, so long as costs are met, it's better to make (for instance) 500 less than the market wants than be left with 500 it won't absorb. That way you make the return you budgeted for when you embarked on the project. Predictability is king and any extra profit you might have made on a greater quantity, if they all sold quickly with minimal discounting, is pie-in-the-sky.

 

The loss of an unquantifiable potential profit is far less damaging to Hornby and/or retailers than incurring real costs carrying dead stock that sits around unsold for months or years, until it has to be dumped cheaply onto a market that didn't want it at or close to r.r.p.

 

When it does get dumped, the money spent might have otherwise been directed at newer releases sold with a better margin.

 

Habitually remaindering models at a loss on the cost of production in order to avoid the cost of carrying the excess damages the prospects for subsequent releases as it discourages both pre-ordering and prompt purchasing by dealers and (some) consumers who won't need much encouragement to expect more of the same.

 

The alternative is the practice carried on by certain prestige fashion brands which, when an item ceases to sell at full price, destroy the remainder to protect their market position. Better or worse?

 

John

I don’t think it’s so much assessing the initial stock volumes that’s been the problem.

Invariably first releases of any tooling have sold out quite well in differing periods of short time.

It’s the re-runs that kill it.

 

The stock swilling round now is k2, 71, J50’s etc, even the repeat 46256 is still on the shelves, despite selling at near £300 weeks after its initial sell out release...

 

What I dont know is how removing market competition is going to help this.

 

In the past I eagerly Pre-order on day 1 with the best price I can find, and usually get a lock-in of sorts, even if that means later in the year my initial excitement would lean me towards pruning back. My excitement must be good for retailers, whom finding their +1’s like me doing the same thing and hence build a healthy Pre-order book which inevitably rolls up to Hornbys sales team nationally from all the shops.

Quite how I will order on January 7th, when I google 20 shops all listing an identical price, I am not sure, especially as when released later in the year, all the prices will still be the same on release date, logically it would seem prudent to reign in the excitement and wait for it to hit the shelves before deciding to rush in, or bet on a discount after a prolonged shelf period. Right now I don’t see an incentive to Pre-order, let’s see.

Edited December 19, 2018 by adb968008

[Legend]

Lima produced steam locos from the old steam tools in the 1990’s.

They didn’t sell well, but Lima did release models included Pannier as running number 9401 GWR Green, Crab lined black as 42760 and a King 6012 King Edward VI.

The toolings are very much Railroad only, and with so many other Railroad models to go with, with more standardised Hornby 1980’s components, retooling these would probably be much cheaper than making bespoke chassis for these.

It was hinted at a few years ago that Pannier 9400 had been measured at Swindon (various obliques of tape measures on parts of 9400 appeared), though I don’t see the logic in two models of a 9400 going head to head, and Bachmann announced theirs some time ago,especially when others exist, like a 15xx etc... that said history tends to err towards the first to market wins the market, even if later models look better.. bird in the hand.

But we know the gestation times of Bachmann Models is long ,can be up to 5 years . That makes them vulnerable to someone crashing in and grabbing territory. If the Hornby one was already in development then it maybe they’ve decided to carry on . While there maybe some Bachmann officionados that will hold on for their preferred make , others will simply buy what’s available first . There is also the issue of cost , which is likely to be less for Hornby than Kader/Bachmann . I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we see one announced on Jan 7th , with availability early next year, which based on current performance will still beat Bachmann. Not really as risky as it first may seem. Another poss small tank engine that I’m surprised no one has attempted is a J69 .

 

Agree the original Lima steamers will not cut the mustard now, even as Railroad models

Edited December 19, 2018 by Legend

[Robin Brasher]

But we know the gestation times of Bachmann Models is long ,can be up to 5 years . That makes them vulnerable to someone crashing in and grabbing territory. If the Hornby one was already in development then it maybe they’ve decided to carry on . While there maybe some Bachmann officionados that will hold on for their preferred make , others will simply buy what’s available first . There is also the issue of cost , which is likely to be less for Hornby than Kader/Bachmann . I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we see one announced on Jan 7th , with availability early next year, which based on current performance will still beat Bachmann. Not really as risky as it first may seem. Another poss small tank engine that I’m surprised no one has attempted is a J69 .

 

Agree the original Lima steamers will not cut the mustard now, even as Railroad models

Perhaps Hornby's 2019 releases started being developed four years ago and Hornby only announces them a year before they produce them. I liked it when Bachmann's City of Truro for the National Railway Museum was ready to purchase as soon as it was announced.

[adb968008]

Is there any loco class that fits a j50 wheelbase / wheelsize ?

Edited December 19, 2018 by adb968008

[miles73128]

I’m the same. Usually put a big pre-order in when the announcements come out. Was about £1700 in 2018. But I will not be pre-ordering this year as I won’t support a fixed discount strategy. If I miss out on something then I can live with that.

I don’t think it’s so much assessing the initial stock volumes that’s been the problem.

Invariably first releases of any tooling have sold out quite well in differing periods of short time.

It’s the re-runs that kill it.

 

The stock swilling round now is k2, 71, J50’s etc, even the repeat 46256 is still on the shelves, despite selling at near £300 weeks after its initial sell out release...

 

What I dont know is how removing market competition is going to help this.

 

In the past I eagerly Pre-order on day 1 with the best price I can find, and usually get a lock-in of sorts, even if that means later in the year my initial excitement would lean me towards pruning back. My excitement must be good for retailers, whom finding their +1’s like me doing the same thing and hence build a healthy Pre-order book which inevitably rolls up to Hornbys sales team nationally from all the shops.

Quite how I will order on January 7th, when I google 20 shops all listing an identical price, I am not sure, especially as when released later in the year, all the prices will still be the same on release date, logically it would seem prudent to reign in the excitement and wait for it to hit the shelves before deciding to rush in, or bet on a discount after a prolonged shelf period.

[newbryford]

 

 

The crux of the matter,  those who are privy to the inside knowledge are not coming forward, and many of the suggestions are too contemporary to truly raise the eyebrows.

 

 

 

Maybe those that are privy to inside knowledge have been asked to keep it private?

[The Stationmaster]

Maybe those that are privy to inside knowledge have been asked to keep it private?

 

I can't see any point at all in revealing what you know (if you know anything that is) when there's plenty of fun to be had in a thread like this.

[Steamport Southport]

I'm expecting a couple of revamps of previous models in a new Princess and retooled A1/A3. The latter desperately needs doing as they must be losing sales of one the most popular models due to the ski slope.

 

Also the possible return of an old favourite we haven't seen for a while like they did with the Q1 (hopefully the Clan).

 

After that I expect something ordinary such as a GNR J6 or NER 0-6-0 and a cute tank of some description. Possibly a GER J67/J69, LSWR G6 or LBSC E2 0-6-0T. NBR D34 Glen to go with the J36.

 

One thing I am expecting is a new LMS Standard 20 Ton Brake Van to replace the antiquated ex Airfix version. They've done the GWR and LNER Toads, so the LMS one is an open goal. Bachmann has already got the earlier Midland type so I don't expect one from them.

 

Possibly more catering vehicles.

 

I also think someone will do a Manor, but I've not idea what colour box it will coming in.

 

 

 

Jason