Hornby 2019 Speculation

[Mike Storey]

Return of the Big Big train anyone??

 

I would bite their hands off for that.

[Hilux5972]

For me the real eyebrow-rouser (and sensible in a climate of uncertainty) would be to repatriate some production to the UK.

That would be a huge surprise

['CHARD]

Wacky diesel like this: https://www.rail-online.co.uk/img/s/v-3/p48498894-3.jpg

 

13T Medfit  like this: https://paulbartlett.zenfolio.com/img/s/v-3/p412167869-3.jpg

 

Steam engine of this hue: https://preservedbritishsteamlocomotives.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/ab885.jpg?w=1100

 

Fife shunter like this one: https://www.rcts.org.uk/photographs/archive/CH03344.jpg

 

This DMU: https://photos.smugmug.com/BR/BR-dmu/i-8fCKTHt/0/6fbd0b3b/L/ches2-L.jpg

 

and a NPCCS of this persuasion: https://paulbartlett.zenfolio.com/img/s/v-3/p719243357-3.jpg

 

Cheers!

[gelboy45]

Wacky diesel like this: https://www.rail-online.co.uk/img/s/v-3/p48498894-3.jpg

 

13T Medfit  like this: https://paulbartlett.zenfolio.com/img/s/v-3/p412167869-3.jpg

 

Steam engine of this hue: https://preservedbritishsteamlocomotives.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/ab885.jpg?w=1100

 

Fife shunter like this one: https://www.rcts.org.uk/photographs/archive/CH03344.jpg

 

This DMU: https://photos.smugmug.com/BR/BR-dmu/i-8fCKTHt/0/6fbd0b3b/L/ches2-L.jpg

 

and a NPCCS of this persuasion: https://paulbartlett.zenfolio.com/img/s/v-3/p719243357-3.jpg

 

Cheers!

 

 

I'll second the Fife shunter and the DMU please!

 

Gerry

['CHARD]

I'll second the Fife shunter and the DMU please!

 

Gerry

 

Nice one - not into the NCB Lothian 6-coupled tank?  Reckon one of yon machines would be a fine seller! 

 

I forgot to add the Nicola - https://paulbartlett.zenfolio.com/img/s/v-3/p375420219-3.jpg

[Crocodile414]

My guesses / hopes / predictions...….

 

Steam:

 

• Another industrial? 
• Hopefully a SECR D 4-4-0

Diesel

• Probably nothing newly-tooled but a twin pack of 43002 and 43185 would be especially welcome as they enter their final months of service with GWR - maybe even some of the other celebrities like 43093? 
• Whilst on the subject of the HST - what about re-doing the mk3 to the same standard as the power cars and producing a train on a par with the Bachmann Blue Pullman complete with close coupling and lighting etc? Maybe start with a basic 4 coach set (TGS, TSO, Buffet, TFO) and 2 power cars and then people could expand the rake if they so wish?

Electric:

• I think the time has come for 91 to be re-done along with the MK4 coaches and DVT - LNER have re-painted one into Intercity Swallow which is gaining a large following. 
• Maybe even one of the older AC electrics such as an 81? 

Coaches:

• I suspect some older GWR churchward / maybe even Dean stock? 
• Touching every bit of wood for the full Silver Jubilee and Coronation sets to run with my A4's. 
• Intercity MK3 sleepers would be very helpful!

Wagons: 

 

• Not a clue! 

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

OO9... FR double-Fairlie...

.

 

That was floated at a Toy Fair by Roco back in 2008/2009 if my recollection is correct. Failed to get the necessary orders to be produced was the outcome. Roco appear to be the HO manufacturer that Hornby look toward most I feel.

[melmerby]

 Roco appear to be the HO manufacturer that Hornby look toward most I feel.

Including going bankrupt and needing re-financing?

 

Keith

[luckymucklebackit]

Nice one - not into the NCB Lothian 6-coupled tank?  Reckon one of yon machines would be a fine seller! 

 

I forgot to add the Nicola - https://paulbartlett.zenfolio.com/img/s/v-3/p375420219-3.jpg

 

That's not Nicola, that is useful!

[Shedmaster]

For me the real eyebrow-rouser (and sensible in a climate of uncertainty) would be to  repatriate some production to the UK.

Hi,

 

Without wishing to knock the topic off course, what exactly are the benefits now of having anything produced for Hornby overseas?

 

Would now not be a good opportunity for Hornby to say right, enough is enough, lets take back control of our company and take everything back in house, in the UK ?

 

This simplifies things for them and cuts out delivery and any interpretation issues/costs?

 

Is it really as simple as just keeping the wages bill down ?

 

Thanks,

 

Shed.

[NXEA!]

I say it every time a manufacturer has an announcement coming up, but I'm hoping for the LNER E4. They've got the tender for it, and there's a potential joint commission with the NRM for 62785. Also the last 2-4-0 in traffic with BR. 

[Godfrey Glyn]

Hi,

 

Without wishing to knock the topic off course, what exactly are the benefits now of having anything produced for Hornby overseas?

 

Would now not be a good opportunity for Hornby to say right, enough is enough, lets take back control of our company and take everything back in house, in the UK ?

 

This simplifies things for them and cuts out delivery and any interpretation issues/costs?

 

Is it really as simple as just keeping the wages bill down ?

 

Thanks,

 

Shed.

 

I think you only need to look at the Rapido section today to see what is involved in building modern detailed 00 railway models. Finding large numbers of people prepared to do that kind of highly detailed work for the UK minimum wage would be difficult to say the least, even in an area of severe deprivation. The manufacture of a very simple model and the painting could perhaps be done with computer controlled machinery but the investment would be massive. I think we will have to watch for emerging technologies to develop before we could bring the production of any detailed models back to the UK. The one thing that saddened me when production moved to China was to see how much better the models were that they could produce. For what its worth I gained the impression that like too many industries in this country after the second world war we failed to invest and failed to innovate.

 

all the best

 

Godfrey

[ian@60]

LNER E4 will get my wallet open

[Cor-onGRT4]

Here we go 2019

 

 

Loco's

 

SECR D Class or LBSCR K Class

For decades Hornby's  iconic Princess Royal needs a  totally revamp becomes a bestseller then.

GWR Saint

 

Coaches 

 

GWR restaurant

LMS 3rd open / composite

LMS restaurant 

Nigtferry F sleeping coach

 

Wagons

 

SECR wagons

 

Eyelifter whoww

 

LMS Coronation scott coach set of 9 coaches brought in sets of three

[Dunsignalling]

 

Is it really as simple as just keeping the wages bill down ?

 

Thanks,

 

Shed.

That is just the tip of the iceberg. Hornby don't have production facilities (edit) for model railway items of any kind in the UK any more. Moreover, it's unlikely that anything with the capability and capacity to match what they have access to in China is available to hire-in over here, certainly not all in one place.

 

On-shoring production would effectively mean starting from scratch, requiring capital on a scale that a company with their troubled history simply couldn't raise. Even if they could, they'd then be faced with skilling up a new workforce to run it.  

 

Even if, by some miracle, both hurdles could be surmounted, the cost of financing it all, plus UK wages (even at or near the minimum rate) would leave us all facing the prospect of the £400 loco in very short order. 

 

That's only an educated guess, but I think it's a fairly optimistic ballpark figure. Even £300 would result in Hornby being priced out of the market by competitors continuing to get their stuff made in China. Also, of course, the factories Hornby had necessarily abandoned over there would soon be chasing the likes of Hatton's, Rails, and Kernow for new business to utilise their freed-up capacity   

 

John

Edited December 15, 2018 by Dunsignalling

[NIK]

That is just the tip of the iceberg. Hornby don't have production facilities of any kind in the UK any more. Moreover, it's unlikely anything with the capability and capacity to match what they have access to in China is available to hire-in over here, certainly not all in one place.

 

On-shoring production would effectively mean starting from scratch, requiring capital on a scale that a company with their troubled history simply couldn't raise. Even if they could, they'd then be faced with skilling up a new workforce to run it.      

 

John

 

Hi,

 

Apart maybe for the Airfix Quickbuild range made by Plastech in Newhaven, East Sussex?.

 

 

Regards

 

Nick

[The Stationmaster]

Mystic Mike sees the following in his dimly lit crystal glass ball -

 

Happiness and joy for followers of a railway, or even two, south of the River Thames.

 

Something to perhaps keep those with an interest north of Shaftholme Jcn happy, which would be rather nice

 

No SE&CR D - wrong company, I'd look to a different colour box for that one in view of who has the real one and therefore, in effect, has control of who might make a model of it.

 

A Class 120 dmu. (well it's always worth flying the flag - but it's a long shot).

 

Possibly another industrial of older lineage.

[Dunsignalling]

Hi,

 

Apart maybe for the Airfix Quickbuild range made by Plastech in Newhaven, East Sussex?.

 

 

Regards

 

Nick

OK, but working locomotives would present a whole different level of production complexity.

[mdvle]

Without wishing to knock the topic off course, what exactly are the benefits now of having anything produced for Hornby overseas?

 

Having models that people want to buy at a price they can afford.

 

Would now not be a good opportunity for Hornby to say right, enough is enough, lets take back control of our company and take everything back in house, in the UK ?

 

This simplifies things for them and cuts out delivery and any interpretation issues/costs?

 

Is it really as simple as just keeping the wages bill down ?

 

Bringing it back to the UK would greatly complicate things, dramatically increase costs for both Hornby and the consumer.

 

The key point is this - you can't bring back production that was never in the UK/US to start with.

 

The models we purchase today have only a passing resemblance to what was bought 30 years ago.  Today's models, with their abundance of detail parts and fancy liveries require a great deal of manual labour to assemble that can't be done in the UK/US at a price anyone can afford.

 

Regrettably it is only available to those who have a Facebook account, but for those that do go to Rapido's part of Facebook where you will find a link to an archive version of a live video Jason did from one of the Rapido factories in China for the US retailer Trainworld.  Jason covers a bunch of this stuff in the video, and some highlights (that I believe I have remembered correctly) are:

 

• even with the cost increases of the last number of years China is still cheap - the Rapido workers are earning the equivalent of $50,000 when you factor in that the employees costs (food, housing, transportation, etc.) are all cheaper than what a western worker would face.
• Jason estimated a Rapido model made in North America would be an $800 passenger car and well over $1000 for locomotive (I think those are the amounts given).  For comparison those models currently sell at around $120 and $325 respectively.
• it takes a special person to do the work that these workers do - he showed one employee who was spending the day making thousands of couplers.  Now be honest, how many on here would want a job doing that?
• don't dismiss the lack of the community of supporting industries that these factories rely on.  To try and deal with wage/factory and possibly some other issues Rapido has moved one of the factories to the next province over.  That factory is having issues with production because things take longer - the example given where the original location the tooling vendor is 15 minutes away, making checking things easy and modifications quick.  For the new location it is 4(?)+ hours away and leads to days of delay when a problem occurs.

[Paddy]

I suspect that if they did so, it would be an introduction across the continental ranges as well where there is still a relatively healthy market and all to a unified scale as it's a clean break situation for the UK side of things. Not really seeing this happen myself but will gladly have an edible hat on stand by for grateful consumption if it does.

All my suggestions were intended to be “out there” - most would be a wee bit too ambitious for Hornby probably.

 

Paddy

[Godfrey Glyn]

To me the very obvious set of coaches that Hornby could do would be the Southern Bullied shorties, they shared the same under frame as the Maunsells. I really do not understand why Bachmann have taken so long to revamp the long versions.

A complete oddball, but one that I think would sell like hot cakes at the NRM, would be an OO Rocket. I agree with others that a high spec Cl 47 could do well especially alongside the high spec Cl 66 coming from Hattons and the new Cl 55 from Accurascale.

I would love them to do a 4COR but in the present climate I fear anything larger than two car EMU or DMU is very difficult for any manufacturer to contemplate. 

However after Andy's report from the Media briefing I am quietly confident that my wallet will suffer next year ( or perhaps, being realistic the year after!).

 

all the best

Godfrey

[surfsup]

I have a feeling the HST will return in some of the earlier post privatisation liveries as well as one or two of the current livery schemes - I would certainly like to see the always popular GWTs Merlin & FGW "Fag Packet" make a return on the new tooling, just as Midland Mainline did last year.

 

On the EMU front, although it would indeed be nice to see someone finally tackle the 313-508 PEP fleet, I wonder if a new Networker family could be on the cards - given Hornby's location and history of re-tooling past models?  

 

Caley Sleeper 87002. 

 

And please, more Wessex - FGW Local Lines 153s please! 

[wombatofludham]

 

I would love them to do a 4COR but in the present climate I fear anything larger than two car EMU or DMU is very difficult for any manufacturer to contemplate. 

 

 

I'm not so sure, given that Bachmann are releasing 3 car dmus (Classes 117 and 170) next year and Hornby released a 5 car Class 800 recently.  In any case any new items coming out this year will have been planned a couple of years back.  That said, Bachmann announced their new 3 car dmu plans more recently and despite Bachmann's pricing policy are still going ahead so perhaps there is a less price sensitive market of sufficient size to justify more than 2 car units.

 

Whilst a Class 800 in full five car formation is pricey, and somewhat more iconic than a 4-COR I don't think if Hornby thought they could sell them they wouldn't tackle it just because it would probably end up retailing at something like £250.

[Torn-on-the-platform]

Interesting suggestions everyone! I really enjoy this thread and find it baffling that people that don't like it still click on it and criticise it.

 

I very rarely make a good prediction, but surely a Manor class is on the way from one of the bigger manufacturers? Frequently polls highly, versatile and a popular prototype.

 

There have been vague hints and rumours about a Q class, which I think would be too good to be true, but again, polling highly, 0-6-0, lots of stock already available for it. Given the choice for a Southern loco, I would take a Q over a SECR D.

 

Standard 2 is also surely not too far over the horizon, but possibly more fodder for the boys in blue.

 

I think a new Princess Royal will come in the future once the dust has settled on the release of the more recent LMS pacifics.

 

It would be good to see an up to date milk tanker.

 

I don't expect it, but it would be nice to see Hornby cater more to the preservation market, with S15s, J15 and the K1 just some examples of classes who's preservation representatives have not been produced.

[robmcg]

I think using existing tooling with saleable names and liveries will be good for both buyers and Hornby's creditors.

 

Above all I am pleased that there is a culture of optimism around the place, with new models continuing, like the J36 and Nelsons.  Hornby are just so very very good at RTR 00.

 

I think the Nelsons prove how good they are. I am looking forward to the Coronations, and Jan 7 too!  

 

A great hobby and Hornby have to be prudent, and are showing every sign of keeping the flame of optimism and enthusiasm alive.