Hornby - New tooling - Large Prairie

[mdvle]

29 minutes ago, melmerby said:

Don't follow that argument.

Quite clearly it was almost at the point of toolmaking and a delay "to correct" the issues that you mention could have a) delayed it and b) pushed up the price.

That could well have led to a head to head with two similar specced locos at same price. Hornby would have likely had considerably less sales than they have actually managed.

If Hornby had just delayed it to the original schedule, with the oppositions version available I suspect even poorer sales.

IMHO Hornby did the right thing.

 

Hornby had a choice at that point.  Tooling is the single most expensive part of making a model, and that cost easily dwarfs any investment up to that point.

 

The perhaps wisest decision at that point would have been to cancel the project and move on - antagonizing one of your larger retailers over a matter of a model that you haven't even tooled yet is a poor long term decision.

 

But once the decision was made to proceed it really wasn't a fair fight.  Hornby has a brand recognition, retail sales channel, and advertising reach that Rails simply can't match - particularly for those who aren't participating on RMweb.

 

So a delay wouldn't have cost Hornby much if anything, and it is likely the opposite is true.  By rushing the model and creating a model with issues, they lost sales that have instead have gone to Rails because Rails took the time to try and make a better model.

 

 

[The Johnster]

I recall Simon Kohler's 'interface' with Rails of Sheffield on the tv 2-parter documentary, and was a bit thrown by SK's proprietary attitude to the Terrier, which he described as 'our' model because it had been in the range previously.  Well, it had been inherited from Dapol originally, so to my mind was not anything he should have had proprietary feelings about.  AFAI thought, it was up for grabs for anyone who could produce it; the system is fundamental entrepreneurial competitive investment capital opportunism and if you can't stand the heat...

 

Of course, a man in Simon Kohler's position must be ruthless, cunning, and underhand; a smile in your face and a knife in your back, but he can hardly throw his toys out the pram if somebody does it to him!

 

This has to some extent been replayed with the large prairie and Dapol, but less publicly and over a longer time frame.  Hornby, by which I mean SK, again seem to have regarded a loco they inherited from another company as their own property trespass at your peril, but less has been said in public about it.  Hornby are not in the game of making a 43xx, which might lead to the much requested Manor, or if they are they are keeping it under wraps.  

 

A large prairie is a logical loco to pull the Collett suburbans which Hornby completely blindsided everybody with, announced early January delivered late February.  The Terrier has no LBSCR stock to pull and does look like an overtly aggressive move against Rails, and a warning shot across the bows of the commissioners; mess with Hornby at your own risk, we can get models out faster than you and beat you to market.

[melmerby]

38 minutes ago, mdvle said:

 

So a delay wouldn't have cost Hornby much if anything, and it is likely the opposite is true.  By rushing the model and creating a model with issues, they lost sales that have instead have gone to Rails because Rails took the time to try and make a better model.

 

Well those lost sales don't seem be much seeing how well the "loco with issues" seems to have sold.

I suspect they will have judged that the lower price and earlier release has been worthwhile.

Whether the extra costs of manufacture and hence price would have been recouped in sales with a full blown head to head we will never know.

I suspect Rails will be the overall loser in this as most of the market will have been satisfied and only those that won't accept the errors of the Hornby model left to sell to.

 

If I was in the market for a Terrier, I might have bought the Hornby one, issues or not but definitely would not consider a Rails/Dapol one until I have seen whether it runs alright as well as looks good.

 

 

Edited October 25, 2019 by melmerby

[Steamport Southport]

3 minutes ago, The Johnster said:

The Terrier has no LBSCR stock to pull 

 

Hornby have an LBSC brake van which is more than any other manufacture has. However they were more likely to be seen pulling BR Mark Ones or Maunsells on the Hayling branch than pottering around with four wheeled carriages.

 

https://www.emsworthonline.co.uk/Crossing to Hayling Island.htm

 

 

Most of the liveries are post grouping or preserved anyway. But notice the BR and SR versions sold out pretty quickly. Contrary to what the Pre Grouping lot tell you, most people model BR and Big Four by a very big margin. So we have plenty for Terriers to pull as long as you model the correct era or can do a bit of modelling. Roxey (and others) sell proper LBSC carriages.

 

 

 

Jason

[Neal Ball]

I think the point that Mike is making is that..... IF the Prairie had been in the shoos earlier in 2019. The 2020 catalogue would more than likely see another 61xx produced and we would buy 2 Priaries from Hornby.

 

If as is now possible, the Dapol Priarie is likely to be along in Spring/Summer, possibly we will buy 1 x Hornby and 1 x Dapol. Hornby therefore lose a sale.

 

It might be they lose more than that, as they won’t produce another GWR tank while the Priaries are new to the range. I’m working on the assumption that they might have a 57xx in the pipeline (it’s a guess, as I think one must be likely soon....)

[Miss Prism]

18 minutes ago, Neal Ball said:

If as is now possible, the Dapol Priarie is likely to be along in Spring/Summer,

 

???

 

 

 

[Neal Ball]

4 minutes ago, Miss Prism said:

 

???

 

 

 

That’s only a guess based on Mikes comments!

[Miss Prism]

Ah, ok.

 

[Dunsignalling]

14 hours ago, Steamport Southport said:

 

Hornby have an LBSC brake van which is more than any other manufacture has. However they were more likely to be seen pulling BR Mark Ones or Maunsells on the Hayling branch than pottering around with four wheeled carriages.

 

https://www.emsworthonline.co.uk/Crossing to Hayling Island.htm

 

 

Most of the liveries are post grouping or preserved anyway. But notice the BR and SR versions sold out pretty quickly. Contrary to what the Pre Grouping lot tell you, most people model BR and Big Four by a very big margin. So we have plenty for Terriers to pull as long as you model the correct era or can do a bit of modelling. Roxey (and others) sell proper LBSC carriages.

 

 

 

Jason

 

Though I suspect that those willing and able to take on the construction of brass coach kits to run with their Terriers are precisely the people least likely to accept the errors on the Hornby model.  

 

That's if they are willing to countenance r-t-r locos at all...

 

John

[Coach bogie]

2 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

Though I suspect that those willing and able to take on the construction of brass coach kits to run with their Terriers are precisely the people least likely to accept the errors on the Hornby model.  

 

That's if they are willing to countenance r-t-r locos at all...

 

John

A bit harsh. There are many modellers, like me, who build coaches but use rtr locos. Even David Geen, a former coach kit manufacturer, has Hornby Castles and Stars at the heads of his trains.

Mike Wiltshire

[The Johnster]

4 hours ago, Neal Ball said:

I think the point that Mike is making is that..... IF the Prairie had been in the shoos earlier in 2019. The 2020 catalogue would more than likely see another 61xx produced and we would buy 2 Priaries from Hornby.

 

If as is now possible, the Dapol Priarie is likely to be along in Spring/Summer, possibly we will buy 1 x Hornby and 1 x Dapol. Hornby therefore lose a sale.

 

It might be they lose more than that, as they won’t produce another GWR tank while the Priaries are new to the range. I’m working on the assumption that they might have a 57xx in the pipeline (it’s a guess, as I think one must be likely soon....)

I very much doubt that anyone wants to go head to head with Bachmann's well established and well regarded 57xx/8750, but if anyone does it'd be nice if they left the top feed off or at least made it and the associated plumbing easily removable.  Hornby have form in 8750s, though.  I think (and rather hope) that if we see a pannier from Hornby it'll be a 2721 retooled to modern standards, but would they bother with a brand new chassis tooling?

[The Stationmaster]

23 hours ago, Denbridge said:

Do people honestly believe that Hornby really did that with the Terriers? Those models will have been in development long before Rails announced theirs. It isnt something you can knock out in a few weeks. I bet the Hornby terriers were undet development for at least a year previous to the Rails announcement. Of course Hornby would want to get theirs to market first, having already invested tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of pounds on development. Absolutely nothing childish about that. Nor political. Good business in fact.

The 'Hornby' Terriers were, on their own admission developed very quickly (it shows) in response to the Rails model as shown by several posts above  And I would lay down good money that it wasn't under development (at Hornby) before Rails announced theres - whereas the large prairie very definitely was. 

19 hours ago, melmerby said:

Don't follow that argument.

Quite clearly it was almost at the point of toolmaking and a delay "to correct" the issues that you mention could have a) delayed it and b) pushed up the price.

That could well have led to a head to head with two similar specced locos at same price. Hornby would have likely had considerably less sales than they have actually managed.

If Hornby had just delayed it to the original schedule, with the oppositions version available I suspect even poorer sales.

IMHO Hornby did the right thing.

How do you reckon that it was 'almost at the point of tool making'?  Just because somebody says it was 'planned' doesn't necessarily mean that any development work had been authorised or carried out but simply that someone had it in their plan - which might well have been different from the then Hornby management's plan (and probably was).  What has emerged as the new Hornby is obviously a very different sort of model reflecting far less research and detail elements compared with many other recent models which were under research and development towards production during the period before the new management arrived just compare the 0-6-0 Terrier with the latest 0-6-0 Peckett or the littyle Ruston diesel.

[The Stationmaster]

5 hours ago, Neal Ball said:

I think the point that Mike is making is that..... IF the Prairie had been in the shoos earlier in 2019. The 2020 catalogue would more than likely see another 61xx produced and we would buy 2 Priaries from Hornby.

 

If as is now possible, the Dapol Priarie is likely to be along in Spring/Summer, possibly we will buy 1 x Hornby and 1 x Dapol. Hornby therefore lose a sale.

 

It might be they lose more than that, as they won’t produce another GWR tank while the Priaries are new to the range. I’m working on the assumption that they might have a 57xx in the pipeline (it’s a guess, as I think one must be likely soon....)

Basically so Neal -  the suburban stock and the large prairie were developed on a complementary basis and both projects started at more or less the same time.  Thus work on the prairie was going to be well ahead as the original release dates indicated, in fact I was surprised when it was publicly revealed that it was not much further ahead and there must have been a reason for that - a logical one being that money which could have been spent on bringing it to production had gone elsewhere.  And the only newly tooled item which had gone late into Hornby's programme for this year, complete with its childishly theatrical revelation, was the rushed through Terrier.  And don't forget who said it had been rushed through - Hornby, not me.

 

As far as the Dapol large prairie is concerned we don't know the release date but I think sometime in 2020 remains a strong possibility.  There seems to be no doubt that Dapol firmly intends to go head-to-head with Hornby on this one and as noted above 'first in the market' is all.  From what I have seen of the SECR D and online glimpses of the 43XX it is very clear that Dapol are upping their game detail wise and are definitely past the 'problematic' original CAD for the large prairie.  So with Hornby running late with its prairie in Year 1 there is also a possibility - unless they are manufactured at the same time - that any Year 2 variants could also be late.   So Dapol might well get there at the same although they have a lot of models on their plate at the moment but I believe they are using more than one factory for production development and tooling (in the case of two models; so maybe for more than that?) 

[melmerby]

 

20 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

 

How do you reckon that it was 'almost at the point of tool making'?

Maybe because SK said this: There have been plans to re-tool the ‘Terrier’ even before I left on my three year walkabout and on my return I made it a priority. We had decided on a 2020 launch but on hearing that there were plans for the same model to be produced elsewhere and for it only to be available through limited outlets we decided to bring our plans forward.  Luckily we had already completed much of the work so it was purely down to having steel cut and models produced.’

[woodenhead]

3 minutes ago, melmerby said:

 

Maybe because SK said this: There have been plans to re-tool the ‘Terrier’ even before I left on my three year walkabout and on my return I made it a priority. We had decided on a 2020 launch but on hearing that there were plans for the same model to be produced elsewhere and for it only to be available through limited outlets we decided to bring our plans forward.  Luckily we had already completed much of the work so it was purely down to having steel cut and models produced.’

SK is a marketing man, he would hardly state he was producing a spoiler to the Rails announcement, just like he didn't say the same about all those 66s when Hattons announced their all singing and dancing model.

 

Rails and Hattons are a threat to Hornby and Bachmann so expect duplications like this.  Dapol in aligning themselves with Rails have given them another opportunity to shine and they are going for it with gusto.

[Miss Prism]

4 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

and are definitely past the 'problematic' original CAD for the large prairie. 

 

I hope that is so, but as yet there is no sign of a redraw. Dapol's notices of 'Awaiting final CADs' almost gives the impression the design is being done by an outside party.

 

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

1 hour ago, The Johnster said:

I very much doubt that anyone wants to go head to head with Bachmann's well established and well regarded 57xx/8750...

If the tooling isn't life expired Bachmann could retool just the keeper plate to eliminate the combined brake rodding and shunter's step straight out of the 1980s. One discrete part substitution, instant upgrade.

 

1 hour ago, The Johnster said:

... Hornby have form in 8750s, though.  I think (and rather hope) that if we see a pannier from Hornby it'll be a 2721 retooled to modern standards, but would they bother with a brand new chassis tooling?

Depends on what market sector they are aiming it. This is where Hornby differ significantly from all the other currently operating RTR OO competitors: they have a long established customer base for their Railroad product, and I would suggest that for as long as this sector holds up, items will be introduced for it.

 

Where Hornby fall down in my opinion is in not clearly differentiating their products in this respect, and I have wittered on about this previously. But, it's their business to run as they see fit, and to live or die by the results.

 

And back on topic... Result of this is that 'we' don't know what we are getting from a Hornby product announcement. Is this Large Prairie going to be a match for such as the Thompson L1? That was their most recent similar size tank engine release, and something of a tour de force, (quite probably qualifying as worst prototype with most refined RTR OO model). Hopefully so, because they will still have the old Large Prairie tooling to run in Railroad form if required.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[melmerby]

1 hour ago, woodenhead said:

SK is a marketing man, he would hardly state he was producing a spoiler to the Rails announcement, just like he didn't say the same about all those 66s when Hattons announced their all singing and dancing model.

 

Rails and Hattons are a threat to Hornby and Bachmann so expect duplications like this.  Dapol in aligning themselves with Rails have given them another opportunity to shine and they are going for it with gusto.

The 66s weren't even aimed at the same market although the "Announcement" was obviously made to steal some of Hatton's thunder.

 

Hornby managed to get the Terrier out remarkably quickly if they were as some suggest, starting completely from scratch and out only to steal sales from Rails.

 

[Steamport Southport]

5 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

Though I suspect that those willing and able to take on the construction of brass coach kits to run with their Terriers are precisely the people least likely to accept the errors on the Hornby model.  

 

That's if they are willing to countenance r-t-r locos at all...

 

John

 

I build etched brass kits and would buy a Hornby version over the opposition version.

 

 

 

Jason

[The Johnster]

I also build brass coach kits, because it’s the only way to acquire some coaches, and am willing to build loco kits on the same principle.  I prefer to buy good standard RTR because I can’t make or paint kits to that standard (though I can ‘improve’ them to meet my requirements). 

 

So I’ll buy the Hornby 5101 when it’s available in a livery I want, but I haven’t written the Dapol off yet; it might appear yet, and be cheaper and better than H’s.  But I’m not holding my breath!

 

 

Edited October 26, 2019 by The Johnster

[Coach bogie]

29 minutes ago, The Johnster said:

 

So I’ll buy the Hornby 5101 when it’s available in a livery I want, but I haven’t written the Dapol off yet; it might appear yet, and be cheaper and better than H’s.  But I’m not holding my breath!

 

Some of the original Dapol CAD showed no cabside shutter. An almost impossible task to remove from both kit and rtr. If Dapol do provide this as a option, then Hornby have lost several sales from me, as I can run original condition 51xx as still running in the mid 30's.

 

Mike Wiltshire

[melmerby]

I think the problems with some past  retailer's commissions is they have not had 100% success in the past.

Dapol managed a total dog's dinner with the Hornby Mag's Stove R (and did a little better with their own GWR railcar!)

Hatton's 48XX commission promises much and delivers significantly less, so I'm not expecting too much. At least DJ Models is out of the loop.

I hope I'm wrong and Hatton's and Rails newer commisions are top quality

Edited October 26, 2019 by melmerby

[The Johnster]

That could swing it for me as well, Mike.  Not as a period issue but because I’d like to pose my shutters half or fully closed,

[The Johnster]

Just now, The Johnster said:

That could swing it for me as well, Mike.  Not as a period issue but because I’d like the option to pose my shutters half or fully closed.

 

[The Stationmaster]

2 hours ago, melmerby said:

The 66s weren't even aimed at the same market although the "Announcement" was obviously made to steal some of Hatton's thunder.

 

Hornby managed to get the Terrier out remarkably quickly if they were as some suggest, starting completely from scratch and out only to steal sales from Rails.

 

Note that I haven't said 'they started from scratch'.  But as it wasn't in Hornby's original plans for the 2019 range of new releases (as they said) we don't know where they started from but it clearly had not been developed in the way Hornby have been developing new models in recent years.  and if tooling had been progressed any earlier it would have been a large amount of investment to leave hanging around and surely nomody in model railway manufacturing is that daft?

 

1 hour ago, Coach bogie said:

Some of the original Dapol CAD showed no cabside shutter. An almost impossible task to remove from both kit and rtr. If Dapol do provide this as a option, then Hornby have lost several sales from me, as I can run original condition 51xx as still running in the mid 30's.

 

Mike Wiltshire

Getting back to the prairie.

 

Hornby's tooling allows a considerable a range of variations although I don't know if it makes any provision for a model without a cab shutter.  But I understand it makes provision for various bunker back sheets although obviously not the really early variants.