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Hornby 2019 announcements


Andy Y
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Basic models are in fact very useful to anyone with a modicum of modelling ability (that's me out, then); so long as they are dimensionally accurate we can add details and work them up.  I would prefer a dimensionally accurate but basic model, even with moulded detail that has to be cut off and replaced, than a highly detailed but dimensionally 'out' alternative.  

 

Some models are so far out that nothing can be done with them, but by and large anything produced new in the last 30 years is reasonably close to the mark.  At the end of the day yer pays yer munny an' yer takes yer choice.  The choice is better than it's ever been!

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My apologies if I missed this in earlier posts; I think I have read them all! My question concerns the pre-orders for Gresley 61’ teak coaches. The teak seems to look OK, but I cannot fathom whether the bodyside moulding issue has been ‘fixed’. Guidance/wisdom would be welcome.

 

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Marcus

I highly doubt it. There is no indication that they are retooled or had any modifications done.

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However someone can also go down to Argos and buy a very cheap, basic, digital camera for £40-£80. No, it doesn't have lots of extra lenses or other features but it can still be given to a child as a Christmas present, used to record family events, and with some good framing etc even pull off some decent photos now and then. 

 

I'm certainly not saying that there shouldn't be *any* superdetail models, and I'm happy for those that want them that there are those models available. But there's a balance to be struck and there's room in the market for both the superdetail models and the budget models.

But the crux of the matter is for how long producing the budget models will remain worthwhile for the manufacturer. Even Railroad prices are drifting upwards and I, for one, wouldn't consider that two of them represent better value than one "full fat" model of comparable size. Where I do concur, is that they are far more suitable for younger children and (perhaps inept) beginners.

 

That £40-£80 camera from Argos isn't aimed at the potential hobbyist in any event, but the analogy equates quite well to the Smokey Joe train-set. Both do the job, so long as one's expectations are realistic, and nobody is suggesting for a moment that both don't have a place in the market. Quite apart from the cost (new), and however good a bargain a decent used DSLR may be, many will consider one much too big and heavy for casual use. I agree, which is why I also have a compact, though my compact cost more last year than my SLR body did seven years ago, and produces very comparable results.

 

Some years back, I failed to persuade my stepfather, who was determined to own a brand new car for the first time, a City Rover, to buy an extremely well-kept, high-spec, low mileage, three-year-old Ford Focus for the same money. The Rover was traded in for peanuts with bits falling off it before it even needed an MoT. Fortunately, its replacement, a Daihatsu Sirion (also new), proved to be an exact opposite and remains in rude health and good cosmetic condition as it approaches its twelfth birthday.  

 

The bare truth, in all three comparisons, is that a low price doesn't necessarily (or even often) constitute a bargain and you can almost always find something of better quality second-hand for the same or less money.   

 

John

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Has anyone bought the Blue scotsman yet? What’s the front footplating like? Any sign of ski jump?

 

Pictures from Rails on Facebook now - presumably on thier website too. I wouldnt like to call it regarding the footplate.

 

Hatton's has photos too.

 

If anything the footplate looks straight along its length, but the cab appears to be sitting on its haunches a bit, making it look like the loco is pointing slightly skywards.

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... if Hornby does find success in these areas, it makes you wonder about the enthusiasm they will have for the "we want all the minute detail but will endlessly moan about the price" sector...

For just so long as the return on investment remains satisfactory. Money always speaks louder than words in business.

 

I can't see Hornby ever pulling out of the high-end model market, not least because those products are bought by some of their most loyal and non-price sensitive customers: the collectors...

Which will be for so long as that active regular customer spending continues in response to introductions of new subjects and renewals of the dated models.

 

But the crux of the matter is for how long producing the budget models will remain worthwhile for the manufacturer. Even Railroad prices are drifting upwards...

And these are the product groups that look increasingly vulnerable to me. Not least because there is a mountain of 'better than budget and Railroad' built up over the past 20 years and still building. Apart from a few known victims of Mazak rot, most of this will comfortably outpace the budget and Railroad items. Surely I am not the only one who has noticed that there's an increasing supply of good s/h from current manufacturers, as opposed to the not so long ago dealer tables full of Triang/H-D/Wrenn?

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For just so long as the return on investment remains satisfactory. Money always speaks louder than words in business.

 

Which will be for so long as that active regular customer spending continues in response to introductions of new subjects and renewals of the dated models.

 

And these are the product groups that look increasingly vulnerable to me. Not least because there is a mountain of 'better than budget and Railroad' built up over the past 20 years and still building. Apart from a few known victims of Mazak rot, most of this will comfortably outpace the budget and Railroad items. Surely I am not the only one who has noticed that there's an increasing supply of good s/h from current manufacturers, as opposed to the not so long ago dealer tables full of Triang/H-D/Wrenn?

 

Yes but note that the cost of second hand is also creeping up , but its a good point .

 

I still think there' a reasonable amount of money to be made ,even on Railroad .Hornby are not stupid they must have costed their mark 2f  coach(not a Railroad item, but competitively priced)  up and be happy with the return. They are not doing it to spite Bachmann. they are doing it because they think there is a market there and can make money . Similarly if you've got Oxford producing an N7 which sells at £87( discounted), why cant others .  Its the same manufacturer- retailer- enthusiast routing.

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And these are the product groups that look increasingly vulnerable to me. Not least because there is a mountain of 'better than budget and Railroad' built up over the past 20 years and still building. Apart from a few known victims of Mazak rot, most of this will comfortably outpace the budget and Railroad items. Surely I am not the only one who has noticed that there's an increasing supply of good s/h from current manufacturers, as opposed to the not so long ago dealer tables full of Triang/H-D/Wrenn?

 

Maybe I'm looking in the wrong places but I don't know where to get a second hand GWR railcar in decent condition for £45.

 

To me, one thing that stands out from the 2019 range is that Hornby seem to be putting more emphasis on the Railroad range and at lower prices than we've seen recently.

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If they move their focus to a more lucrative sector, we will only have ourselves to blame.

 

What we don't know is which is the more lucrative sector?  I'm presuming that Hornby do but don't get me wrong I have seen some higher quality Hornby models sold in 'department stores' in the pre-Christmas period at the sort if discounts that make Hattons old ways look positively tight fisted.  The trainset market is a very different thing and I suspect that if it is correctly marketed (e.g Hogwarts Express or 'Flying Scotsman') it will get into the Argos/mail order and what's left of the department store market areas and sell out of Hornby in very considerable numbers at what are likely to be 'competitive' prices, i.e. at a level that such buyers will find marketable once their margin is added.  

 

The big advantage for Hornby, provided they get it right - and Phil's obvious enthusiasm foe 'wacky races' suggest that Hornby probably have got it right for that plus toy trade accolade for Hogwarts Express says the same - means that Hornby will sell these items in large quantities, good old fashioned Hornby market approach.  But still a valid approach because even if profit per item is low the bulk sales will mean higher cash flow.  In contrast the sooper dooper hifi GWR non gangwayed coaches will not sell in such bulk but at roundly £50 a throw at retail level the profit per item is likely to be a bigger percentage that mass sales of Hogwarts Express.  the encouraging thing this year is that we are seeing the reinvigorated LCD led Hornby doing both and I wouldn't mind betting that at the end of the day, and more pertinently the end of the financial year what will matter is how much these two area of market have made in total and that two pronged approach won't change as long as both prongs work and make money for the company.  The ultimate of course would be high volume coupled with high gross profit and you never know but an LCD led Hornby might actually get there.

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Any hobby is a luxury, funded by discretionary spending. Hornby, like all leisure-oriented businesses, make their living from offering products or services, at prices that make the effort worthwhile, to customers who want and can afford to buy them.

 

When I was on a tight budget, nearly all the models I bought were second-hand, it was that or the same loco, two coaches and four wagons until next Christmas (yes, it was that long ago). I also, aged 8 upwards produced my own buildings from balsa wood and cereal packet cardboard. They cost little and got replaced or altered repeatedly as  I gained the ability to make better ones.

 

If someone wants (for instance) to "dip their toe" into photography, they don't (if they have any sense) buy a new DSLR, they get a six/seven-year-old one for a tenth of the price to learn the basics on. Nikons like the one I still have produce sharp, noise-free A4 prints and can now be picked up for about £70, the current equivalent is up around £800.

 

Then, with the knowledge of what sort of pictures they want to take, they can make a better-informed decision on what equipment to buy, and what is an acceptable budget for them when they are ready to get in more deeply.

 

I really don't see why railway modelling is, or should be, any different. 

 

John

 

Example - years back when cash was tight with two small children and herself only able to get a few hours work in the week i was perfectly happy to buy a secondhand Airfix 61XX at a swapmeet for a few quid  - because it was the only way to get a Western large prairie; I couldn't even afford the wheels for it if I bought a Wills kit.

 

Now I have a new Hornby large prairie on order for the coming year and I might well add a second one - as far as I'm concerned they are not massively over-priced and they'll come with top notch detail which has been very thoroughly researched.  That's the way the world has changed - the youngsters are out at work, I've got three pensions (and I'm even allowed to keep one of them for myself  :O ), so I can spend my discretionary money how I want.

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My purchasing philosophy runs something like this (and bear in mind that I am nobbut a poor pensioner who has to watch the pennies carefully); product is on market when I look for it or is announced and I am waiting for it.  I decide I want it.  The next stage is to ask the question 'have I got or can I reasonably easily get the money required to pay for it?  If the answer is no. I can't 'ave it and that's that, so my railway does not incorporate DCC control.  If the answer is yes, then irrespective of how much it costs, or how much of a rip off I think it is, or any other factor, then I'm 'avin' it and that's that.  

 

I can get away with this because I have sufficient income to live within my means even if it is fixed, and no dependents relying on me.  The squeeze is not high maintenance and pretty much self supporting, the bills all go out at the beginning of the month from one of the pensions, and when food and utilities are sorted the rest is my 'funny money', divided between the railway and the pub.  Doesn't hurt me not to go up the pub if I've caned it a bit on the railway.  I can also get away with it because I have cut my cloth according to it's width and do not have more than a fairly basic BLT to supply stock for.

 

A cloud looms on the horizon (even noticeable above the bigger cloud that I'm probably, by which I mean almost certainly, going to die in the next 2 or 3 decades); I have just attempted to install a new operating system in my Mac to be told that my Mac cannot run it.  This means that it is only a matter of time before I will not be able to source software for it, and I must think in terms of a replacement in the next 2 or 3 years.  But I should have finished the bulk of spending on the layout by then anyway!  

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I do feel that they may have gone for an overkill on railroad standard items with all those 66s and 47s (nearly all of the latter having been released before). Mind you I'm biased in that all of those things have no interest to me what so ever. The vast selction of small tank locos should sell like hot cakes - oops my bias in preferring these. 

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Just to put this into context, I have just looked at some prices for Hornby Dublo frpm the late 50's and early 60's.

An 8F would have cost £ 4 1s 6d which equates to £ 90 based on RPI or £ 199.90 based on labour cost.

The figures for a West Country were £ 5 16s 5d, £ 113.80 and £ 271.90 respectively and a City of London £ 5 5s, £ 111.10 and £ 245.30 respectively.

The prices do not seem to have gone too far out of line, given the improvement in quality - there is no comparison between a modern City and an HD one, although I still like the old one. 

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On ‎1‎/‎28‎/‎2019 at 6:03 PM, Legend said:

 

Yes but note that the cost of second hand is also creeping up , but its a good point .

 

I still think there' a reasonable amount of money to be made ,even on Railroad .Hornby are not stupid they must have costed their mark 2f  coach(not a Railroad item, but competitively priced)  up and be happy with the return. They are not doing it to spite Bachmann. they are doing it because they think there is a market there and can make money . Similarly if you've got Oxford producing an N7 which sells at £87( discounted), why cant others .  Its the same manufacturer- retailer- enthusiast routing.

It should always be borne in mind, however, that the prices of items produced by newcomers, in any field of commerce, have always undershot those of acknowledged market leaders. Also, of course, that position tends not to last forever.

Hornby currently need good margins in order to recover from the damage caused by previous poor decisions, and Bachmann effectively have their margins set for them by the parent company.

Oxford are an established business entering a new (though not wholly unrelated) market segment. It would be more of a surprise if they weren't prepared to accept relatively small returns whilst their railway range gets off the ground.

The demand for Train set and Railroad level products remains sufficient to ensure that Hornby aren't going to abandon either overnight, but other pressures mean that the prices will inevitably rise in the same way that those of pre-owned main range models are doing.

Quite simply, if the production slots set aside for the budget products can be more gainfully used, they probably will be, if only gradually.

 

John 

 

Edited by Dunsignalling
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1 hour ago, Pete Darton said:

Has anyone thought the type C customers are children that want to get into the hobby? Children don’t have lots of money and quality models are not there biggest priority. They just want model trains that go. The new Hornby class 66 which is a lot cheaper is great for them, just need more choice on the market for them. Model railways isn’t just about making trains go around a track. It’s about making you own scenery and painting your own locomotives in colour you want and putting on transfers. The old plastic looking Lima models were ideal for this. That’s why there needs to be cheaper models on the market. 

My definition of "Type C" was intended to define a gap between the higher end enthusiast and collector market, for whom price is less of an issue and those for whom it is (for whatever reason).

My objection is (and has always been) to an expectation of premium quality at budget prices.

Back in the day, the better-off bought their kids Hornby Dublo and those of the rest of us lucky enough to get anything, got Tri-ang. The only thing that's really changed is that, nowadays, both levels are catered for by one company.

The cheaper models on the market already come from Hornby, via Railroad, and train sets. That ain't going to change, (any time soon) but my suspicion remains that the relative production costs of "main range" and "Railroad" level for newly tooled models  are significantly closer than the corresponding difference in prices that the market expects. How much would the Railroad Class 66 cost if it wasn't made from old Lima tooling that has already paid for itself, I wonder? 

Given such comparisons, and much altered circumstances within the industry, I doubt that that a new competitor would succeed in "doing a Tri-ang", today, even if they were daft enough to try. 

John

Edited by Dunsignalling
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7 minutes ago, Pete Darton said:

Just a shame there is such a limited choice of diesel locomotives on the Hornby Railroad range. Hornby was created to provide affordable model trains to the masses and that dad and son could enjoy model trains together. 

It is a problem, created in no small part by the 'big' railways themselves. The onward path on rationalisation left us with a much smaller field of choice. Whereas there would have been a magnificent choice, we're left with perhaps a half-dozen to choose from. On a slightly more positive note, it should be only 'full-fat' models that make the grade.  Another line to contemplate, is using 'Bay as a starting point, and trading up, as & when.

 

Happy modelling,

 

Ian.

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1 hour ago, Dunsignalling said:

My definition of "Type C" was intended to define a gap between the higher end enthusiast and collector market, for whom price is less of an issue and those for whom it is (for whatever reason).

My objection is (and has always been) to an expectation of premium quality at budget prices.

Back in the day, the better-off bought their kids Hornby Dublo and those of the rest of us lucky enough to get anything, got Tri-ang. The only thing that's really changed is that, nowadays, both levels are catered for by one company.

The cheaper models on the market already come from Hornby, via Railroad, and train sets. That ain't going to change, (any time soon) but my suspicion remains that the relative production costs of "main range" and "Railroad" level for newly tooled models  are significantly closer than the corresponding difference in prices that the market expects. How much would the Railroad Class 66 cost if it wasn't made from old Lima tooling that has already paid for itself, I wonder? 

Given such comparisons, and much altered circumstances within the industry, I doubt that that a new competitor would succeed in "doing a Tri-ang", today, even if they were daft enough to try. 

John

Any new entrant would come in at the higher end of the market where their is more margin to play with , not the bottom Railroad end . I think there is still money to be had there but you would need to have a route to market to attract newcomers , which essentially means a retailer network.  Less margin, more risk. 

Instead there are rich pickings to be had at the other end of the market. Probably less volume but more margin per unit. Less risky too as you probably don’t have to sell large volumes to make money.you can sell direct to the enthusiast and cut out the retailers portion of margin or keep it to yourself.  It can be no coincidence that Accurascale , Rapido via Locomotion are at that end of the market. 

The company I think that’s most vulnerable are Bachmann. Slow to market, high price .  It’s interesting to note that it’s now freely acknowledged they have their margins set for them by their parent company Kader .  That’s why prices increased rapidly from 2014 , not so much to do with Chinese labour costs! 

The one that is a puzzle is Oxford. Able to deliver reasonably detailed models, N7s, Mk3s at good price levels . They have their own factory certainly , but then so do Bachmann. I suspect the only difference between them is in their margin aspirations . 

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1 hour ago, tomparryharry said:

It is a problem, created in no small part by the 'big' railways themselves. The onward path on rationalisation left us with a much smaller field of choice. Whereas there would have been a magnificent choice, we're left with perhaps a half-dozen to choose from. On a slightly more positive note, it should be only 'full-fat' models that make the grade.  Another line to contemplate, is using 'Bay as a starting point, and trading up, as & when.

 

Quite - a range of 66's in assorted liveries is a very good match to the modern railway.

 

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1 hour ago, Pete Darton said:

Just a shame there is such a limited choice of diesel locomotives on the Hornby Railroad range. Hornby was created to provide affordable model trains to the masses and that dad and son could enjoy model trains together. 

You make it sound like some sort of philanthropical organisation rather than a business. It really wasn't, or at least, it shouldn't have been.

Then again, maybe it was, and perhaps that's why both Hornby Dublo (which was never aimed at "the masses" anyway) and subsequently Lines Bros, who made Tri-ang, both went to the wall.

Hornby, as we know it today, grew out of what got salvaged from the wreckage, via a couple of other near-disasters.

Problem is, if you want new diesels in Railroad, anything that Hornby can't make from old ex-Lima tooling, (which is what enables them to be sold at the prices they are) will be noticeably more expensive than the current ones. If the price differential between Railroad models and the equivalents from Heljan or Bachmann  were only (say) £20 instead of £50 or more, how many would remain loyal to the "basic" range? 

John 

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But Lines bros didn’t go to the wall because of trains . In fact it’s always that part that survives .  Lines bros through Rovex were extremely successful at targeting the cheaper end of market , to the detriment of Hornby Dublo

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5 hours ago, Legend said:

Any new entrant would come in at the higher end of the market where their is more margin to play with , not the bottom Railroad end . I think there is still money to be had there but you would need to have a route to market to attract newcomers , which essentially means a retailer network.  Less margin, more risk. 

Instead there are rich pickings to be had at the other end of the market. Probably less volume but more margin per unit. Less risky too as you probably don’t have to sell large volumes to make money.you can sell direct to the enthusiast and cut out the retailers portion of margin or keep it to yourself.  It can be no coincidence that Accurascale , Rapido via Locomotion are at that end of the market. 

The company I think that’s most vulnerable are Bachmann. Slow to market, high price .  It’s interesting to note that it’s now freely acknowledged they have their margins set for them by their parent company Kader .  That’s why prices increased rapidly from 2014 , not so much to do with Chinese labour costs! 

The one that is a puzzle is Oxford. Able to deliver reasonably detailed models, N7s, Mk3s at good price levels . They have their own factory certainly , but then so do Bachmann. I suspect the only difference between them is in their margin aspirations . 

I suspect the reason for Oxford's pricing is quite simple - they go for a low margin to encourage sales and their development costs are cheaper than those of most other people because they don't spend so much time trying to get things right and they seem to work very much from scanning whenever they can.  They are also of course a much leaner company than the likes of Hornby or even Bachmann and they probably directly employ fewer staff on model railway development work than Hattons.

Incidentally according to information from China they do not own their own factory as far as model railway production is concerned (which might explain why the Radial tank came with what was basically a copy of an old Athearn mechanism) although do have part ownership of a factory in hong Kong which produces diecast models.  No overseas company owns a factory in China as that is not permitted under Chinese law but they can own a share in the factory's production facilities and, by inference, the operating company which is using the factory.

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16 hours ago, Legend said:

But Lines bros didn’t go to the wall because of trains . In fact it’s always that part that survives .  Lines bros through Rovex were extremely successful at targeting the cheaper end of market , to the detriment of Hornby Dublo

True, and Hornby have periodically lost sight of that lesson over the years, almost causing history to repeat itself.

Tri-ang trains were primarily intended to cater for those of us for whom Hornby Dublo was out of reach. That they would also attract a proportion of those who could afford the products of Binns Road was inevitable, but was possibly as much related to the latter's tardiness in adopting new technology (2-rail) and their ossified (expensive) 1930s production methods as any issue of quality. HD cost what it cost because of how it was made and it became seen as old-fashioned (which it was). All of which bore striking parallels with what also did for nearly all of the British motorcycle industry. 

How things worked out does perhaps offer a lesson on pricing that will still resonate today. That demand for (relative) cheapness may be satisfied but can lead to  the loss of products people really wanted but couldn't, or wouldn't pay for. To be supplanted by items made to sell at prices they could and would stump up but usually lacking a "certain something" that its predecessors had possessed. 

The ways we decide between price and absolute quality are nothing new, but the choices we make are inextricably linked to the Law of Unintended Consequences. If we prioritise cheapness above all else, one outcome that can be expected is reduced choice. We should, therefore, be careful what we wish for.

John

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