Bachmann 2020+

[brushman47544]

I can understand, for new tooling models still in development, why Bachmann doesn’t know when they will be ready for production, but I do think they create a rod for their own back when they include new liveries on existing tooling in the catalogue without an expectation - and therefore a provisional availability date - that they will be produced during the validity of the catalogue. If they haven’t already secured a production slot, keep the model back for the next catalogue when one assumes they will have one. 

[adb968008]

Whilst no manufacturer openly admits it, Brexit is likely the biggest factor. Business plans are 5 year projects, since 2016 those will be reconsidered, and wont immediately change without some monitoring/consideration of post event, events..

 

No-one knows how this will end up, but the hesitance seen in the last few years errs towards bearish outcomes.

 

Only fools rush in, the absence of fools suggests inteligence is thinking negatively.

 

spin it however you like, prices are up, investment in tooling is down, if it werent for a few revolutionary risk takers, with low cost bases taking advantage of higher prices, increasingly using prepayments or deposits to further reduce risk, we’d have very little at all.

 

meanwhile the rest of the world moves on...

 

nearly 50 new items shipping at Bachmann USA,  page updated Jan 25th..

https://www.bachmanntrains.com/bm/news/index

 

15 items from Rapido in HY19..

https://www.rapidotrains.com/new-product-delivery-schedule/

 

Pikos 9th Polish prototype, at an RRP lower than UK outline new toolings (obviously Poland can either sell more than UK quantities, or has lower risk than UK outline, as its still made in shared OO factory space in china at the same levels of detail, but superior motorsand haulage)..

https://www.piko.de/DE/index.php/en/piko-latest-news/1168-preannouncement-piko-new-mold-2019-h0-diesel-locomotive-su46.html

 

12 new models in Australia (even CNY affects them too) in HY2019..

http://www.sdsmodels.com.au/latenews.htm

 

I could go on, but theres no point whats done is done, if Hong Kong is the yard stick (1992-2007), we probably are 2 years into a 15 year decline/recovery curve with the first 10 years showing considerable currency volitility, mass populace exodus, downsizing, refocus etc, its natural.

 

If your a non-UK entity looking in, obviously if you can make good money in safe places, why take a risk ?

 

Edited February 10, 2019 by adb968008

[7013]

It would appear that Bachmann have been in the doldrums for quite a while now, how things have changed since many were predicting the demise of Hornby a few years ago when they too went through a tough patch. It would seem that companies are at the mercy of the changing picture in China, and they have few options; either ride out the storm with their current manufacturer, get out of that contract and use another factory...fraught with danger. Or bring production back home. The latter is more difficult because it is (if I am correct) Bachmann Europe not Bachmann UK, so where becomes home? Whatever it takes to solve these issues I believe we will eventually see Bachmann back on track as it were, just as Hornby are now.

[Andy W]

1 hour ago, 7013 said:

It would appear that Bachmann have been in the doldrums for quite a while now, how things have changed since many were predicting the demise of Hornby a few years ago when they too went through a tough patch. It would seem that companies are at the mercy of the changing picture in China, and they have few options; either ride out the storm with their current manufacturer, get out of that contract and use another factory...fraught with danger. Or bring production back home. The latter is more difficult because it is (if I am correct) Bachmann Europe not Bachmann UK, so where becomes home? Whatever it takes to solve these issues I believe we will eventually see Bachmann back on track as it were, just as Hornby are now.

The thing is, Bachmann production has never ever been in the UK so they can't "bring it back home". Bachmann Europe has always been a subsidiary of Kader Industries, a Chinese company, who do the manufacturing.  Kader was Hong Kong based, and got involved in UK model railways by doing the production for Mainline, the model railway brandname of Palitoy, Palitoy never made model railways in the UK either. Kader got left with the tooling when Palitoy was taken over and the new owners decided to exit model railways, and Bachmann Europe is the result of Kader's attempt to turn the tooling into an income stream. Kader own the factory that the models are built in, so "ride out the storm with their current manufacturer" is really the only option that exists.

[The Johnster]

I agree with Tomparryharry's post 5 hours ago; the hobby needs Bachmann as a foil for Hornby, as much as it needs Hornby as a foil for Bachmann; these 2 are the biggest players by a handsome margin.  Only Hornby is a household name, though I suspect most of those that use it in households think they are talking about Hornby Dublo.

 

Hornby are emerging from a slack period, spectacularly so, and it looks as if Bachmann have entered one after falling behind with projected deliveries, not entirely through their own doing but you can't let 'em off the hook completely either.  Fast forward about half a dozen years with Johnster's crystal ball, and you might see Hornby slackening off the pace a bit having overreached themselves or being in danger of doing so, and Bachmann taking up the slack; these things tend to go in cycles.  Planning, measuring, designing for production, organising production and packing facilities from Chinese third parties, all mean a project can take several years to get to market, and blue box have gained an unenviable reputation for this.  It is doubtful that red box actually perform much better, but keep things under wraps until the last minute so that they look as though they are a bit more on the ball; anybody with experience in marketing will tell you that much of it is smoke and mirrors.

 

Not saying that anyone's being dishonest, here, but that the two approaches are markedly different.  From a consumer's perspective I favour redbox's apparently faster response, but of course if asked I would probably claim that I want to know what models are in the pipeline as soon as possible so that I don't embark on expensive and time consuming kit building projects that will be overtaken by quality RTR.

 

A case in point is my 'Limbach' 94xx.  I wanted a 94xx but was not prepared to accept the crude underpinnings and dire performance of the Lima secondhand model.  I held off for over a year in the hope of the Bachmann one putting in an appearance but eventually ran out of patience and lost faith in Bachmann's alleged delivery schedule, and took the plunge (with some help from Ian!).  I am glad I did; my 94xx is not bad but the new Baccy will be better, so I will replace it when that becomes eventually available, but we are not even at a CAD stage yet!  In the meantime I have the Limbach.

 

This sort of minor first world problem apart, we are very lucky to have 2 big players producing quality stuff at what I think are acceptable prices, and each keeping the other on their toes, the best situation one can hope for in a competitive market against the background of an enterprise led capitalist economy

Edited February 10, 2019 by The Johnster

[adb968008]

57 minutes ago, The Johnster said:

 

This sort of minor first world problem apart, we are very lucky to have 2 big players producing quality stuff at what I think are acceptable prices, and each keeping the other on their toes, the best situation one can hope for in a competitive market against the background of an enterprise led capitalist economy

I thought we had 6... Dapol and Heljan, but also Peco and Gaugemaster (both several £mn balance sheets). All have been around for decades, produced the same if not more annually some years than the other two even if they are in different scales or products, its the same industry. Dapol, with assets at £3mn (t/o exempt) according to their filings is no corner shop. Similarly without Gaugemaster and Peco, shop shelves would be bereft of the thousands of lines of various kits, bits and scenics we rely on, from micro companies which use these two to reach market.

 

The hobby is about much more than oo gauge engines, regardless the marketing.

 

Edited February 10, 2019 by adb968008

[The Johnster]

There's Oxford as well, but redbox is probably bigger than the others except bluebox combined, and bluebox is probably in the same position.  Peco aren't really in the RTR game in 00, and Gaugemaster are in the similar state of having become the distributor for several other minor manufacturers of kits and accessories.  There's a lot more to the hobby, and the trade, than RTR locos and stock, or setrack, and long may it remain so, but the big RTR players are the bedrock.  

 

As a very general rule, one 'progresses' from big player RTR to smaller player RTR to get more of what you want or when you start looking for specific liveries, then on to smaller firms like Peco or Gaugemaster for your accessories and details, as well as better track and controllers, then further on to basic kits from Ratio, Coopercraft, or Parkside, through the distributors, then to whitemetal or brass kits from smaller companies some of which are proper cottage industries, in cottages, and then you are capable of scratch building and are free of the trade altogether except for the scratch material.

 

Acting as a sort of lubricant for all this is the retail trade, which ranges from corner shops to major boxshifters who are able to commission models and influence the situation in their own way.  I am by nature a small s socialist who dislikes capitalism, but even I have to acknowledge that it works fairly well in this case; we have a wide choice of good quality reasonably priced items, not that this stops us moaning about it!

 

It is, IMHO, one of the delights of the hobby that it encompasses such a variety of approaches, abilities, and disciplines

[Butler Henderson]

4 hours ago, adb968008 said:

nearly 50 new items shipping at Bachmann USA,  page updated Jan 25th..

https://www.bachmanntrains.com/bm/news/index

Think that highlights the issue - the US market is huge compared to UK market and Kader respond to that demand. If there was fall off in the US no doubt there would be movement on other ranges to keep the factory busy but as it they are no doubt happy with a huge order book from their subsidiaries.

[davknigh]

1 hour ago, Butler Henderson said:

Think that highlights the issue - the US market is huge compared to UK market and Kader respond to that demand. If there was fall off in the US no doubt there would be movement on other ranges to keep the factory busy but as it they are no doubt happy with a huge order book from their subsidiaries.

Depending on how the trade talks between the US and China go there may be a steep increase in the price of Chinese goods in the US. There is a great deal of hostility between the current US administration and China (and others) and the and the broad application of tariffs would put a crimp in things for Bachmann.

 

Cheers,

 

David

[JSpencer]

7 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Whilst no manufacturer openly admits it, Brexit is likely the biggest factor. Business plans are 5 year projects, since 2016 those will be reconsidered, and wont immediately change without some monitoring/consideration of post event, events..

 

No-one knows how this will end up, but the hesitance seen in the last few years errs towards bearish outcomes.

 

Only fools rush in, the absence of fools suggests inteligence is thinking negatively.

 

If your a non-UK entity looking in, obviously if you can make good money in safe places, why take a risk ?

 

 

Most companies in my day to experience felt that some form of deal would be place by the 29th March which won,t have changed much as far as the status quo goes. The last few weeks have seen some dramatic changes however.  The deal being voted down, looks likely to end up not being changed much, and we are on collision course for a no deal exit. Maybe it won,t happen but what seemed improbable now looks probable.

In The last couple of weeks I have seen exchanges between companies talking about this big unknown and it's possible consequences. The style of "our uk warehouses may not be able to meet demand, order from our Swiss warehouse instead....". "New tariffs might be imposed....", " delays in transiting goods". Etc...

A lot may be just commercials pushing additional sales but equally there have been other letters asking for assurances that we can continue to supply, and supply at agreed prices. Business is spooked until we know what is going to happen. Certainly it's a big variable that can make or break business plans enough to put a brake on most projects/investments until the variable is known.

Bachmann et al doubtless do have plans, but it will either nothing happens or prices will suddenly have to go up (value in the pound drops, WTO tariffs etc...).

[Butler Henderson]

Just noticed the availability listing on Bachmanns web site can be searched by any field selecting which fields not to search from the down arrow which gives a drop down list - searching the ETA field for 2020 now brings up all versions of 158s and 159s as being available next January 

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

On ‎10‎/‎02‎/‎2019 at 11:12, adb968008 said:

...If you are a non-UK entity looking in, obviously if you can make good money in safe places, why take a risk ?

For the oldest reason in the book, because there's even better money to be made.

 

This nation (once derided by someone long consigned to the dust bin of history as a 'nation of shopkeepers') has unilaterally exited many times before. And as before, fortune will favour the brave.

[Godfrey Glyn]

When government ministers appear to accept, and some even welcome, a 20% drop in the value of the pound so that 'we can become more competitive', it is a small wonder that a company that manufacturers its products abroad would respond by being very cautious in its production planning. They will get a far better return by targeting their production elsewhere. There is sometimes a very fine line between being brave and being stupid, in this case Bachmann are being sensibly cautious.

 

Oh happy days, I'm sure everything will be fine!

 

all the best

 

Godfrey

[Legend]

Hornby have competition , without Bachmann.  They specifically seem concerned about new commissions from Retailers (targeted 66s and Terriers )and Dapol (Prairies) and that seems to be where they've elected to fight battles , so its not Bachmann that are the perceived threat here.  If there is a market for something, someone will fill it.

 

The announcement of Class 92 and Mk5s , both sleeper and TPE, from Accurascale show what Hornby and Bachmann are up against. These new companies / retailers now manufacturers are very fleet of foot . They can get in there and bring something to market in relative short time, certainly compared to Bachmann.  So I think that's the real threat to Bachmann, plus the newer manufacturers were able to bring in models at a price more favourable than existing Bachmann prices (Class 66, Bachmann have subsequently dropped the price on theirs)

 

The 66 is an example . Bachmann announce new versions in their 2019 announcement, but we now find that these are actually now 2020. Meanwhile Hattons have the large logo BR one and Biffa in their releases  in 2019. Will there be a market for these in 2020. More likely the world will have moved on and there will be yet more new colours on 66s in real life .  Bachmann are just not fast enough or able to secure production facilities at Kader to compete.

 

The market has changed in the last 5 years, Bachmann can't continue as they have been with indeterminate lead times and prices . They'll just lose out

 

 

Edited February 11, 2019 by Legend

[NINJA]

I bought a rake of Dapol Turbots at what I considered reasonable prices, if Bachmann had offered these I could not have afforded them.

 

On wagons Dapol appear to be more realistic in their prices and delivery dates.

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

On ‎10‎/‎02‎/‎2019 at 09:01, tomparryharry said:

The absolute downside is when we have a singular large UK provider of model railway products. Bachmann appears to have donned the mantle of "the only game in town".  If we return to the 1970's-1980's , Hornby donned that mantle, do you see any historical similarities? ...

Per 'Legend' above, I don't see a similarity: "the market has changed". And it is not just the market that has changed, but also the barrier to entering that market with fully competitive product has not only fallen very significantly: it has been successfully undertaken, and a growing number of entrants offering products are the proof.

 

There's no dominant market for the cheap toy end of OO for children any longer, that sector has gone. The action is all in adult modeller and collector oriented product, and for that I feel we have Bachmann to thank for the starting momentum they supplied with the launch of their Blue Riband range. Here was a well thought out range of OO RTR models at a quality level that previously needed a skilled kit or scratch builder to produce (railway modellers). Hornby got on message after a few years, and by then Heljan had entered OO too; since when it has been onward and upward with an increasing number of competitors.

 

No manufacturer holds 'the only game in town' card now; and I see this as most unlikely to ever recur. It is somewhat ironic that it is now Bachmann UK that appears to be having the most trouble competing on the very playing field they were influential in creating...

[tomparryharry]

9 minutes ago, 34theletterbetweenB&D said:

Per 'Legend' above, I don't see a similarity: "the market has changed". And it is not just the market that has changed, but also the barrier to entering that market with fully competitive product has not only fallen very significantly: it has been successfully undertaken, and a growing number of entrants offering products are the proof.

 

There's no dominant market for the cheap toy end of OO for children any longer, that sector has gone. The action is all in adult modeller and collector oriented product, and for that I feel we have Bachmann to thank for the starting momentum they supplied with the launch of their Blue Riband range. Here was a well thought out range of OO RTR models at a quality level that previously needed a skilled kit or scratch builder to produce (railway modellers). Hornby got on message after a few years, and by then Heljan had entered OO too; since when it has been onward and upward with an increasing number of competitors.

 

No manufacturer holds 'the only game in town' card now; and I see this as most unlikely to ever recur. It is somewhat ironic that it is now Bachmann UK that appears to be having the most trouble competing on the very playing field they were influential in creating...

 

Yes, I see what you mean. But, when you get to being 'the only game in town', the attitude "what can we get away with?" rears its ugly head. My gripe is the 'generic wagon', where the humble wagon is done up in all big 4 companies, and touted as 'new'. I'm not knocking Bachmann per se, I can make my own choices to buy, or not to buy, but really? Hornby have indeed risen to the challenge, the AA15 van is a prime example of this. This van may have been a direct result of keeping up with Bachmann, and well done to Hornby for accepting the challenge. However, if Bachmann hopefully keep others on their toes, the modellers aren't confronted with 'Design Clever Syndrome'.

 

Happy modelling,

 

Ian.

[Legend]

Well Design Clever happened during the time that Bachmann was producing fine models , so Bachmann didn't stop Hornby "getting away with that". I think that was a mistake, although certain aspects of Design Clever, like trying to keep the cost down, were laudable . Announcing it was definitely a mistake !

 

Bachmann have done a lot to increase standards overall , as did Mainline and Airfix back in the 70s . But I think we are a long way away from generic wagons , except perhaps in Railroad range where I think there is an opening for a large hopper branded as EWS, Freightliner, GBRf etc . But again its other players in market like Dapol that will keep pressure on .  I still think of the major suppliers Bachmann is the most vulnerable . It doesn't seem to have secured production capacity at Kader (hence stuff into 2020), it is slow to market , and in general at prices people can beat .

Edited February 11, 2019 by Legend

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

And Bachmann have recently done the 'generic wagon' thing in OO that they previously didn't do! This by labelling the five plank RCH 16'6" frame mineral wagons with big four initials to represent five plank 17'6" frame general merchandise opens. Comparison to their own 17'6" frame Histeel LNER/BR models will reveal what is wrong...

 

Happily there are good kits for these vital vehicles, the only other RTR options being Oxford Rail's neat LNER version and Hornby's ex Airfix GMR model (a very clever subject selection by Airfix of a vehicle typical of much the Big Four's late thirties build of these vehicles). Now if only Hornby might be persuaded to firstly produce them, and then to give them the typical liveries - last time out they were in fitted BR brown, OK, but with the numbers and other text on atypical black patches.

[Jol Wilkinson]

2 hours ago, Legend said:

"If there is a market for something, someone will fill it."

 Judging by the wish lists and poll results that appear each year, there seems to be a market for virtually everything.

 

To paraphrase a certain saying "Make it and they will buy it" seems to be particular applicable nowadays. As soon as a new product is announced, people seem have no difficulty convincing themselves they should buy it.

 

 

[Oldddudders]

On 05/02/2019 at 08:22, Mallard60022 said:

What a patronising post

Quite right, Phil, but this divergence of outlook is what makes a forum. One man’s earnest endeavour is another’s source of derision. We are all different, but the number of posts in the thread indicates - as if such were needed, as it is rife here - that a % of members do take an interest in manufacturing trends rather than just individual models. And the OP admits compiling his stats while watching tv - I’m not sure my tv has been switched on this year. That doesn’t make him a moron or me superior.

 

But, for the benefit of the spectator, may the patronising sniping continue!

[The Stationmaster]

17 hours ago, Jol Wilkinson said:

 Judging by the wish lists and poll results that appear each year, there seems to be a market for virtually everything.

 

To paraphrase a certain saying "Make it and they will buy it" seems to be particular applicable nowadays. As soon as a new product is announced, people seem have no difficulty convincing themselves they should buy it.

 

 

Although it seems to work better if they make a decent job of it at a price which relates reasonably to most customers' perception of value for what is being offered.

[Jol Wilkinson]

3 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

Although it seems to work better if they make a decent job of it at a price which relates reasonably to most customers' perception of value for what is being offered.

Mike,

 

I believe that the perception of value for money is something that is very  difficult to define. Enthusiastic pre-ordering of forthcoming models, where there are no substantive details of what the model will be like, seems to indicate that people are motivated to buy whatever is new, even if it only loosely fits their modelling interest. So where does the perception of VFM apply. How much is the "build quality" of the product, the rarity, i.e. nobody has made this before, the accuracy of the model and fidelity to a specific prototype (something that is invariably the subject of comment by the knowledgeable keyboard warriors), or simply price and discount the critical factor?

 

RTR manufacturers and commissioners have moved to early announcements of forthcoming models, probably because they want to deflect a.n.other from producing the same and perhaps because their marketing gurus have recognised that it creates greater demand. The frothing that accompanies these new product announcements is evidence of that. 

 

Jol

[Dungrange]

On 02/02/2019 at 12:15, Butler Henderson said:

I did it during the commercials in a TV program- a copy of the list, dumped into excel, sorted by end column and all rows not containing TBA deleted, all columns other than the ref no and description deleted, sorted by ref number and pasted via word into the posting. .

 

I think this methodology is part of the problem (my bold).  TBA simply means To Be Announced.  That doesn't mean that these products won't be produced in 2019, simply that there is no confirmed delivery date at this point in time - it is only February.   

 

As has been stated, I think Brexit is the major 'elephant in the room'.  The UK is scheduled to leave the European Union on 29th March 2019, yet we still don't have any idea whether there will be an agreed deal or not and what trading arrangements will be in place in just seven weeks time.  Will Brexit be delayed?  I suspect that the answer will be yes, but I'm not sure.  Will there be a Withdrawal Agreement and a transition period to whatever new trading arrangements are to be?  I hope so, but can't be sure.  Will the value of sterling rise or fall on 29th March 2019 or whatever date we actually leave the European Union?  I have no idea, but I suspect that Sterling will weaken further and therefore the cost of imported goods, including Bachmann's products will rise.  Will that impact on demand, especially if there are job losses from firms relocating to the Netherlands and other places to remain in the EU?

 

As a global business with finite production capacity, why would Kader allocate a large number of production slots to UK items at this point in time, when there is considerably less risk in producing models for a market with a more stable and easier to predict economic and political outlook?  Once we actually leave the EU and things become less uncertain, Kader may bring these items forward to 2019 (where they are simple re-liveries) or decide that delivery issues to the UK arising from a disorderly departure means they would be better to continue to focus on other markets.

 

Unfortunately, I think Kader are simply trying to take the lowest risk option, and at the moment that doesn't mean committing to the UK.

Edited February 12, 2019 by Dungrange
deleted duplicate word

[The Johnster]

Future demand is difficult to predict on any basis, especially that of perceived value for money; this is why we are happy to pay more than the model cost to bring to market, as we recognise that somebody has taken a risk and deserves in all fairness to make a profit out of us.  

 

People buy new models for different reasons.  My own approach is to try to emulate the practice of a real railway running a service to the passengers, parcels/mail, general merchandise, private industry, and coal mine needs of an imaginary South Wales valleys community with poor road access in the 1950s, so I buy what I reckon that traffic needs.  Hence my keenness to get my grubbies on the new Hornby Collett suburbans as a step nearer real practice in the area than my old Airfix B set as well as being 'better' models.  My purchases have to do imaginary work for their imaginary living.

 

The opposite end of this spectrum is the collector, and the number of approaches that are some combination of factors is limited only by the number of modellers in the game, all of whom have different sized pockets, attitudes, and modelling philosophies.  

 

Build it and they will buy it, some of them, whatever it is, but to make money producing and selling it, you need to know how many of 'em 'll buy it and what they'll pay.  If it was easy we'd all be doing it!