BBC Four - James May's Big Trouble in Model Britain

[Andy Hayter]

14 model shops in Hull!  There were not that many in the 60s.

[adb968008]

48 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

No mention of age?????

 

And, of course, however popular a Polish outline loco might prove , it's not likely to register in the UK top 100  sales chart.

 

John

Apologies if that caused offence.

Also the point was not about a Polish model making the UK 100.

 

The case point is, Hornby excells in making trains.

To thrive, it needs to consider growing the UK market, explore other markets or enter new types of business.

 

Poland was an example based on:

1. High levels of disposable income in 2019 than in the past.

2. Growth of Polish railways as a hobby

3. Wolsztyn Effect, more than 10k people have driven Polish steam locomotives on the mainline, which gives a strong international dimsension to the right prototypes.

 

It was not about diminishing its UK range, but it might do well to consider looking east, rather than west in its HO range, at least for no other reason than its competition is.

 

its worth pointing out Hornby has previously made some nice steps in this area, with the USA S100 (HO USA tank) which has sales in the US and Europe, not many loco prototypes can claim operations on four continents.

 

 

Edited March 11, 2019 by adb968008

[Andy Hayter]

22 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

Also, of course, the Jinty sales began accumulating c1957 with the introduction of the Tri-ang R.52 version, a period of over 60 years, and (AFAIK) has been in every Tri-ang, Tri-ang Hornby and Hornby catalogue since. Averaged out, that's around 1,200 a year.....

 

John

 

Jinty 1200 per year, whereas the J50 has sold probably around 2000 per year.

Now I am not going to suggest that the J50 would continue at that rate forever and a day, but it shows how we can get a distorted view of the hobby if we chose to simplistically compare the past with today, without recognising that the market has changed - and will continue to change.

[Dunsignalling]

2 hours ago, 298 said:

 

Which begs the question, why do retailers feel the need to commission models directly from Chinese factories (and I'm talking about new tooling and not reliveries), and why do consumers evidently have the confidence to pre-order such unknowns or invest in crowdfunded projects from new suppliers when a similar policy from Hornby or another established brand would have a less positive reaction?

 

I'm sure more will be explained by Simon* in part two

 

(*who seemed to have been mentored in talking to the camera by Pete Waterman).

Commissioning began with Kernow models who saw a market for small black locos geographically relevant to their location, that the established players weren't interested in.

 

Their decision was set against Hornby's traditional obsession with "Big, Green and Named" and Bachmann's long-standing reluctance to build more that two locos that could carry a B.R. number beginning with a 3.

 

Others followed simply because it either repeated the successful formula or just brought a desired product to market much sooner than would otherwise have been the case.

 

"Others" arguably includes Hornby, whose current business model surely makes it the de facto largest commissioner of all, albeit one with the biggest, best R&D department in the sector.

 

Does anyone really believe Hornby would have produced the likes of the J15, Adams Radial or Peckett saddle tank had not Kernow exposed the demand for small, niche locos?

 

 

 

John 

Edited March 11, 2019 by Dunsignalling

[adb968008]

25 minutes ago, Andy Hayter said:

14 model shops in Hull!  There were not that many in the 60s.

Source was a Yellow pages extract.

 

Its not just model railways, its including cars, buses, trains, planes etc so some traditional retailers or even a Post office with some Small trade account for hobbies that advertised, or a woolworths with a model railway section etc could have fallen into this.

 

Though bear in mind that situation still exists, I recently looked through Hornbys website and found a listing close to me, but when I went to visit they actually only traded in Architectural model work but apparently buy from Hornby.

Edited March 11, 2019 by adb968008

[Edwardian]

14 hours ago, Ian J. said:

Can we try and stick to Hornby and the programme in this thread, rather than continue to wander somewhat off topic so frequently. A little wandering can be fun, but it's getting a bit thin now.

 

I hope that this isn't taken as a backhanded compliment, but it's unfortunate for H that their Terrier is going to compete with Rails version and I hope there isn't going to be ongoing bad blood between them a la Hattons and Bachmann over the 66. H's Terrier is good enough to buy and I wouldn't hold out on buying it if it weren't for the Rails/Dapol one, though if H's was the only one on offer I'd be disappointed in its detail shortcomings. I'm hopeful the Rails one will catch the details better, and if so (and that appears likely), unfortunately for H that's where I will be putting my money.

 

So, to address the programme. I have now seen the first episode.

 

It was both interesting and entertaining.  James May is always an easy-watch. However, it is a rather simplistic and lazy bit of journalism. The main flaw of the programme is that it is, so far, very one-sided.  The  whole premise is that the former management, whose voice is not heard, were a disaster and the current management are saviours. While there may be some truth in this, I would be surprised if the situation were quite that simple.

 

One suspects that a crisis as deep as Hornby's is not something that develops overnight or was due to the decisions of one management team over a short period of 3-4 years.  Rather, one suspects that the present position of Hornby is the result of many factors, some no doubt beyond the control of the company and some reaching back further into the past than the programme suggests.

 

The filmmakers tell a complex and multi-faceted story from just one point of view, with the viewer implicitly asked to sympathise with just that one point of view. So, it's a crude quest-narrative, with the questing knight as the Hero and anyone found in his way cast as a dragon to be slain, without any thought as to the dragon's point of view, or, indeed, whether it really is the monster.   Thus, the current management have to be the good guys in any narrative of Hornby's struggle and anyone who gets in their way must be seen as the pantomime villain.  Again, one suspects that the reality is not so black and white.  

 

Yes, the old management's decision to scrap the tooling seems insane and tragic, but we are told nothing about why this was done or the position Hornby was in at the time. I wonder if the second programme will explore the quality of the new team's decision making?  One suspects not. While the old team seems to have alienated retailers - a point stressed in the paper platform given to Kohler by BRM last month - I wonder if May will examine the new team's apparent desire to take on all-comers with competing products, including those of the two largest retailers (i.e. Hornby customers), Hattons and Rails. This is not necessarily wise, but criticism of the policy would not fit with the programme's questing-saviour narrative. Does the trailed "banner bust-up" suggest that May's programme will present one of Hornby's biggest customers as one of the dragons to be slain by brave Sir Simon?  I will await this with interest! 

 

This brings us round to the Terrier.  As a lawyer, if there is one sort of statement I generally view with suspicion it's the ex post facto exculpatory statement.  It was stated recently that a new tooled Terrier had been planned since before the Rails/Dapol announcement.  I am sure that is literally true.  With the old Terrier in the catalogie, I am sure a new tool was somewhere on the to do list.  It does not necessarily follow that this was a project Hornby had committed to, or could not have shelved, at the time of the Rails announcement. To me the new model has a rather rushed-look, as if it was, indeed, cobbled together and pushed forward in order to spike a long-announced rival, rather the coincidential maturation of a state of the art product upgrade long in steady development.  Of course, we cannot know that, but I cannot otherwise account for the secrecy,  the timing of the launch (and graphics and delivery dates that implied the model was rather further on than the subsequent painted samples showed was the case), the choice of old-school motor, the chosen price-point etc.  Pictures of the first production models to be delivered confirm that, while an attractive model , the new Terrier is certainly not of the standard Hornby has shown itself capable of in recent years.  For me this suggests strongly that this is not an accidental duplication, but a grab for market share and a signal to retailers that their role in life is to sell Hornby's models, not to produce their own.  Hattons has, apparently, been sent a similar message.  

 

As a tactic, this may be commercially fair enough.  It may even be successful, but it is certainly a bold move that may prove to be a reckless one, and not necessarily what one might expect of James May's questing-heroes.  I wonder, then, if the programme will reflect the extent to which any management team at the helm of Hornby is faced with complex and difficult strategic choices whereby any gain in one direction has the capacity to back-fire in another.

 

May presents an entertaining programme, but one that I doubt will do justice to the complexity of its subject. 

 

Edited March 11, 2019 by Edwardian
spelling and grammar

[RedgateModels]

28 minutes ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

Much earlier than that. And it's the Fell (not moving unfortunately).

 

Prototypical

[Phil Parker]

36 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Sorry to call you on this Phil,

but here is some numbers...

 

Why sorry? I'm happy to have numbers. It's the finger in the air doom-mongering I can do without. 

 

The shop figures seem high to me. None of the areas I know had anything like that number of model shops - 15 in Coventry seems very odd and although it's not somewhere I've been, 22 in Southend on Sea?  There's also none in Warwickshire it appears, but I could name 3 in Leamington & Warwick alone in that period. Are they counting shops where there is any sort of model sold including tourist tat?  I would like to know more about the methodology.

 

Even if we accept the figures, they presumably relate to model shops generally. One of the Leamington shops didn't cover railways at all so its loss doesn't mean the hobby is shrinking as fast as some like to predict.

 

If you look at the history of magazine publishing, there are some useful parallels. In the 1960s, we had "Model Maker" magazine covering all disciplines. Over the years, the various subjects split off into their own publications and now you can't buy any single magazine covering everything (EMAP tried again in the 1980s with Model Maker but it only lasted 12 issues). The UK market has fractured quite dramatically, something that affects the Hornby Group. How many people looked at the IPMS show and fancied a visit? Not that many I suspect. Would those people go into a general model shop or only one that focussed on trains?

[adb968008]

This might help, the extract was table 4.

Theres 300 pages altogether, ive not read all of it, plus theres a lot of phone numbers in it, but the names redacted.

 

the basis is about the changing dynamic and impact on retailers by the advent of toyfairs, which was significant in the 1990’s.

 

 

I admit i’m struggling understanding the rankings, maybe i need to read more (there maybe a weighting matrix ive not found) , but its the QTY values i wanted to highlight, which are Yellow pages listing, and Collectors Gazette calendars as source.

Unsurprisingly London is the highest demand, Northern Ireland was the least demand in terms of retailers and collectors fairs combined. Gatwick would appear to be an anomaly due to its phone book area.

 

Edited May 9, 2021 by adb968008

[Dunsignalling]

32 minutes ago, Edwardian said:

 

 

 

 I wonder if May will examine the new team's apparent desire to take on all-comers with competing products, include the two largest retailers (i.e. Hornby customers), Hattons and Rails. This is not this necessarily wise, but criticism of the policy would not fit with the programme's questing saviour narrative. Does the trailed "banner bust-up" suggest that May's programme will present one of Hornby's biggest customers as one of the dragons to be slain by brave Sir Simon?  I will await this with interest! 

 

This brings us round to the Terrier.  As a lawyer, if there is one sort of statement I generally view with suspicion it's the ex post facto exculpatory statement.  It was stated recently that a new tooled Terrier had been planned since before the Rails/Dapol announcement.  I am sure that is literally true.  With the old Terrier in the list, I am sure a new tool was somewhere on the to do list.  It does not necessarily follow that this was a project Hornby committed to, or could not have shelved, at the time of the Rails announcement. To me the new model has a rather rushed-look, as if it was, indeed, cobbled together and pushed forward in order to spike a long-announced rival, rather the coincidential maturation of a state of the art upgrade product long in steady development.  Of course, we cannot know that, but I cannot otherwise account for the secrecy,  the timing of the launch (and graphics and delivery dates that implied the model was rather further on than the subsequent painted samples showed was the case), the old-school motor, the chosen price-point etc.  Pictures of the first production models confirm that, while an attractive model , the new Terrier is certainly not of the standard Hornby has shown itself capable of in recent years.  For me this suggests strongly that this is not a accidental duplication, but a grab for market share and a signal to retailers that their role in life is to sell Hornby's models, not to produce their own.  Hattons, has apparently been sent a similar message.  

 

As a tactic, this may be commercially fair enough.  It may even be successful, but it is certainly a bold move that may prove to be a reckless one and not necessarily what one might expect of James May's dragon-slayers.  I wonder, then, if the programme will reflect the extent to which any management team at the helm of Hornby is faced with complex and difficult strategic choices whereby any gain in one direction has the capacity to back-fire in another.

 

I don't really see why Hornby should have an issue with the Hatton's 66 as it's aimed at an altogether different level to theirs. Unless of course they have also been developing a new one intended to blow the Bachmann model out of the water.... 

 

So, we have Bachmann at loggerheads with Hatton's, and Hornby's relationship with both them and Rails possibly heading the same way.

 

However, isn't being barred from retailing "mainstream" product just as likely to encourage the "new boys" to become more aggressive?

For example, Hatton's, are already producing an A3 in O Gauge and would have little difficulty in doing a better job of "Flying Scotsman" than Hornby's current A3 which, all too often, seems to come in rather peculiar shapes.

 

And who knows what the larger independents could achieve if they got together....

 

John 

Edited March 11, 2019 by Dunsignalling

[rockershovel]

and“Why commissioning by shops?” - the hard ones first, eh? 

 

Crowdfunding is a game-changing idea. Effectively, you advertise to attract the limited pool of potential customers for a niche product. Then you solicit donations, or - if you prefer - investments offering little or no return (unless they are offset against eventual purchase price) which will never be repaid or sold as shares. Then you go to a manufacturer, and offer them a run which is large enough to be viable, but small enough to be fitted in to production schedules at the manufacturer’s sole discretion,, weeks, months or even years down the line, with a guarantee of selling enough to cover costs. 

 

It clearly works, for a given volume of sales. 

 

The problem for Hornby is that if you approached Hornby circa 1965 for a limited run of whatever-it-might-be, you would get a flat “no” or they would pinch your idea. Now Hornby have lost control of the production, to a country where intellectual property rights count for little or nothing. 

 

Of course shops, which essentially exist to sell items for more than they can buy them for, seek to cut out the middle-man and/or source products they feel they can sell, but aren’t available 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 11, 2019 by rockershovel

[Joseph_Pestell]

Way back, when I was a retailer (mainly mail order), I too considered direct commissions. What's not to like? If you have an exclusive model that appeals to a broad cross-section of railway modellers, you will obtain a whole new database of customers that you can market other products to.

[Mike Storey]

52 minutes ago, rockershovel said:

and“Why commissioning by shops?” - the hard ones first, eh? 

 

Crowdfunding is a game-changing idea. Effectively, you advertise to attract the limited pool of potential customers for a niche product. Then you solicit donations, or - if you prefer - investments offering little or no return (unless they are offset against eventual purchase price) which will never be repaid or sold as shares. Then you go to a manufacturer, and offer them a run which is large enough to be viable, but small enough to be fitted in to production schedules at the manufacturer’s sole discretion,, weeks, months or even years down the line, with a guarantee of selling enough to cover costs. 

 

It clearly works, for a given volume of sales. 

 

The problem for Hornby is that if you approached Hornby circa 1965 for a limited run of whatever-it-might-be, you would get a flat “no” or they would pinch your idea. Now Hornby have lost control of the production, to a country where intellectual property rights count for little or nothing. 

 

Of course shops, which essentially exist to sell items for more than they can buy them for, seek to cut out the middle-man and/or source products they feel they can sell, but aren’t available 

 

 

 

 

 

Crowd-funding should have been a game changer, and appeared to be so for a while, but I believe it ran into difficulties quite early on, with many funds not reaching viability, or finding that costs had risen so much during the wait for D&D and then getting a production slot, that the original offer could not stand. I know there have been a number of successful schemes and some are still progressing this method, but it is not a route for the faint-hearted.

 

But it is of some importance to note that the retail commissioners have now largely abandoned this in favour of commissioning and then selling, using expressions of interest and other market research to bolster their "gamble". With other new entrants too, the next few years will be very interesting.

 

Whether Hornby should pursue limited commissions, without controlling a factory, and just when they seem to be getting their own production runs back into decent order, is moot. Bachmann certainly take on commissions, but look where their production problems have led them, reputationally at least.

 

Edited March 11, 2019 by Mike Storey
speeling

[Andy Hayter]

Thanks for the explanation ADB.  I think having seen the methodology it demonstrates that the results are rather suspect for use in our specific context.

 

Having seen how the results have been arrived at I am sure for Hull that the 3 (or was it 4) departmental stores in the city will have been included but of these from memory only one ever had any railway in it and that was restricted to a few sets and accessories in the run up to Christmas.  We might indeed consider that one as a loss since it was the entry point into the hobby, but for the rest...………...

[adb968008]

Fwiw,

 

The stockists link on Hornbys website lists 25 retailers per page and has 16 pages in the UK, giving approx 400 retailers, across all main Hornby brands, and include “toy shops” as well as specialist retailers.

https://www.Hornby.com/uk-en/stockists/england/

 

A similar search on Bachmann gives 27 pages of 20, so approx 540.

https://www.Bachmann.co.uk/stockists/

 

Pecos search page claims “With nearly 400 models shops in the UK”.

https://peco-uk.com/pages/find-a-stockist

 

of course non of this give any indication of size / turnover and just like my previous lists includes examples like “Alley katz and Piglets” of Brignorth, which is a traditional toy shop.

 

On a happy side note, for years ive driven past Mick Charles models seeing its ads for Cars / RC and Helicopters, with nothing obvious to railways,however i just happened to see them listed under one of the above,so i’m going to drop in... clicking the links above is worth it !

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 11, 2019 by adb968008

[Phil Parker]

I'm not sure what you are trying to prove with the numbers though - that the number of model shops has dropped sine 1986, that's true, although the actual numbers are likely to remain impossible to pin down. 

 

That the model railway hobby is a lot smaller and therefore Hornby should make Polish models? I don't think this proves that. I think the hobby has got smaller since the heydays of the 1950s and 60s, but the 80s? Not so sure of that. I do think it and our buying patterns are very different from 30 years ago. 

[grahame]

22 hours ago, Robin Brasher said:

 

The problem with modern image layouts is that by the time you have finished building it it is no longer modern image.

 

 

Why is that a problem?

 

Isn't it true of all layouts (being out of date) from those representing the earliest railways to the most bang-up-to-date contemporary one the day after it is built.

 

G

[The Johnster]

On 09/03/2019 at 19:35, Jeff Smith said:

 

I would have said the opposite, that the hobby has grown 3 or 4 fold since the 50/60s 'heyday' (look at the number of exhibitions and the healthy attendances at them), but the toy train trainset trade has almost disappeared.  Hornby have managed (just, and perhaps belatedly) managed to adjust and are still market leader, while the other toymakers, Hornby Dublo and Lima, have gone to the wall, HD holed below the waterline by production costs and Lima by competition and the market demand for quality that they couldn't satisfy.  Airfix and Mainline were victims of corporate predation and economic conditions; there are plenty of corpses in model railway production history! 

 

The trade has changed, and this is visible at shows as well, with far less of the small detailing component specialists taking trade stands (they've all gone on line) and the virtual demise of the whitemetal/brass loco kit.  The small detailing component trade seems quite healthy, though, which is A Good Thing as it shows that we are not yet in total thralldom to the big RTR companies and still try to improve our models.  More power, say I, to the collective elbow of the likes of Springside, Modelu, Modelmaster, et al!

 

6 minutes ago, grahame said:

 

Why is that a problem?

 

Isn't it true of all layouts (being out of date) from those representing the earliest railways to the most bang-up-to-date contemporary one the day after it is built.

 

G

Like maps.  The map is static, but the ground is dynamic...

[Darius43]

2 hours ago, chris p bacon said:

 

Looking at the 2 areas closest to me, I can't make any sense of those figures and how they relate to MR shops.

 

Its a University research project, you're not supposed to make sense of the figures.  Its not like they actually visited every town to check that these shops were actually there...

 

Darius

[adb968008]

1 hour ago, Phil Parker said:

I'm not sure what you are trying to prove with the numbers though - that the number of model shops has dropped sine 1986, that's true, although the actual numbers are likely to remain impossible to pin down. 

 

That the model railway hobby is a lot smaller and therefore Hornby should make Polish models? I don't think this proves that. I think the hobby has got smaller since the heydays of the 1950s and 60s, but the 80s? Not so sure of that. I do think it and our buying patterns are very different from 30 years ago. 

I think my points lost in weeds and ive done a bad job of explaining it.

I’ll make this my last effort, The abstract I was unsuccessfully trying to make was..

 

1. to thrive.. Ideally by selling more and reducing costs

that could be...

To sell more, you need more customers or customers willing to spend more.

To lower costs, you need cheaper production or economies of scale (volume).

Both are tough.

 

The refernce doc was to demonstrate the opposite has happened, and a suggestion (not a statement) of example of sideways thinking to evolve from it, though the focus went here and got stuck in objections.

 

2. in my mind, that means find new customers, grow and develop the market, here & abroad as well as managing costs.  In otherwords make new “stuff” and find new people to sell it too, especially those willing to pay more. This ive always felt is a Hornby strength.. their customers want Hornby, and want new stuff. That reputation and loyalty extends beyond the UK borders too (but dont get hung up on that point). I havent said in this thread, but I too think Hornby needs to become cool to the next generation, and maybe think about apps, Augmented Reality and interactivity, but eveytime ive suggested that ive been well shot down... this isnt certainly not a place to express creativity without hostility. Hornby or a US manufacturer are the only real candidates for this innovation.

 

However My viewing of the documentary to me,  the direction is opposite to my thoughts, in that strategy is to persuade people to buy more Hornby (ie persuade the “class 08” guy to buy more Hornby rather than xyz), instead of finding 10 new “class 08” guys and giving them new things to buy. Secondly, by being highly competitive in duplication they will stem the competition to default “08 guy” to buy Hornby by reducing his variety (either in duplication or forcing out competitors).

 

3. In summary, i feel Hornby needs to become a hunter for new business, not just a farmer seeking to expand into his neighbours fields..

I’m not sure making more 08’s will make the “08 guy” buy more class 08’s, even if they successfully exited the competitors class 08s from the market... same is true for grass and track, as hes already built his layout. 

 

 

Finally, apologies the class 08 guy, i know you have a name, but i dont know it, but you were great and made me smile.

 

Oh and a friend of a friend (a party acquaintence you could say) for many years was on that programme, and whilst were not “buddies” in the last 10 years ive occasionally met him, not once has he, nor I ever mentioned the hobby (ually we talk shop)... you can imagine how astonished I was to see him on the show, especially as I was only talking to him the saturday night before ! Weve exchanged numbers since, and hes never heard of rmweb... communication.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 11, 2019 by adb968008

[Glorious NSE]

2 hours ago, chris p bacon said:

 

Looking at the 2 areas closest to me, I can't make any sense of those figures and how they relate to MR shops.

Likewise. I don't believe Exeter will have had 13 model railway based shops at any point in the 90s. I moved to Exeter in 1998, and I can't recall that it's had more than 2 proper model railway shops at any point since that time.

Now - if those figures instead meant "places that sell Hornby" - they become much more believable.

We have 1 proper model railway shop in Exeter these days - but "places that sell Hornby" would also have included most department stores, toy stores.

These days it'd still include the likes of Argos, WH Smiths etc. on top of toy shops and model shops.

[Darius43]

So we have eighteen pages (and counting) of debate ranging from:-

 

- Is this a diverse hobby with respect to age, gender and ethnic background?  No comment...

- The merits of capitalism vs communism/socialism with examples from the soviet space programme of the 1960s.

- Philosophical debates as to what constitutes "modern image".

- Are DCC point motors "special" or just regular point motors with some fancy electonics attached.  

- RTR Polish steam is the next big thing to happen in our hobby.

- There are perhaps fewer or possibly more model shops in the UK since 1996.

 

All this after just one episode.

 

Good effort James!!!

 

Cheers

 

Darius

Edited March 11, 2019 by Darius43
Eighteen pages...

[D9020 Nimbus]

9 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

So when did Hornby "lose" the M7, then? And to whom?

 

OK, they don't necessarily do another one every year (specially while they've had the H to promote) but I haven't noticed anyone but Hornby producing any ex-LSWR Drummond loco, with the solitary exception of the D15 from OO works.

 

John

Sorry—I got that one wrong. But Hornby did lose out on the others...

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

I am hoping to hear more about the response to the changing competitive landscape for OO model railway in part 2.

New entrants coming in, what's that doing to the market, and specifically how Hornby are going to change their business to remain successful? (Personally, I suspect Hornby need to shake off a lot of the accumulated drag acquired during sixty years of trading. 'A complete range' is no longer required to compete in this sector.)

9 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

Can't be that much of a disaster area judging by the number of new producers it's been attracting...

Quite so. They won't be coming in with the intentions of sharing in the business of making a dreadful loss in UK RTR OO model railways. It's a diverse mix too, which has expanded very noticeably over the previous dozen years. Over that time we have seen all of 'traditional manufacturers' with experience elsewhere but new to the OO RTR sector, and commissioners, boutiquists, crowdfunders, dreamblunderers, evaporists... (No names, no pack drill.)

5 hours ago, 298 said:

Which begs the question, why do retailers feel the need to commission models directly from Chinese factories (and I'm talking about new tooling and not reliveries), and why do consumers evidently have the confidence to pre-order such unknowns or invest in crowdfunded projects from new suppliers ...

Mostly about preventing missed opportunity by retailers: unable to get the models of subjects for which they believe there is a strong niche market; or simply finding there is insufficient product supply for the scale on which they operate, and therefore have sought more control over product supply.

 

Customers: 'because'. It's: a model they have always wanted, a desireable product specification, something well away from the mainstream, something from an organisation that isn't a high street brand, about being an 'insider', <add your own individual reason(s) here>. 

[Phil Parker]

39 minutes ago, 34theletterbetweenB&D said:

'A complete range' is no longer required to compete in this sector

 

Which bits would you drop?

 

Track? Controllers? - you need both for the train sets, unless you propose dropping those too.