BBC Four - James May's Big Trouble in Model Britain

[Andy Hayter]

1 hour ago, Corbs said:

It's complicated, but the general idea is that rather than Virtual Reality, where the world you look around at is completely computer-generated, what AR does is show you what is really there and 'augments' it with computer generated elements.

 

For example, the recent game Pokemon Go was played by holding up the player's smartphone to look around. The game projected computer-generated animals on to the real world when seen on the phone's screen. The CG animals would appear to sit on the ground or walk around.

 

Imagine if you could stand on the platform of London Paddington, hold your phone up and look around, and the phone showed you what the station would have looked like in steam days, allowing you to walk around the environment, whilst in real time it tracked on CGI people, steam locos, kiosks, pigeons, smoke effects etc.

 

This AR app is filming people in a real world environment and playing it back to them live, with Dinosaurs projected on

 

 

Thanks for that explanation, and I can now see some possibilities for Hornby that do not involve the next generation sat in an armchair instead of buying model products and making layouts - Rail or road.

 

So how about you use your viewer to watch the layout.  The train arrives at the station and the doors open (already possible on a few models) but now you AR passengers disembark and passengers on the platform get on the train.

[JSpencer]

The remarkable thing is that Hornby targetted two shops with a rushed program of 66s and Terrier.

 

I think what has been missed somewhat is that Hornby grew quite rapidly as soon as the introduced the rebuilt Merchant Navy. And had a whole lot of succesful years.

This happened because they were really in contact with the customers and produced a balanced product that everyone wanted (Even Simon Kohler was surprised to find people in Scotland wanting a rebuilt MN).

Sure things started to go wrong to the 2007/8 financial crisis, things getting more expensive in China etc. But to be honest, since I was young, the world moves from one crisis to the next.

 

Now they have rushed out a program of Terriers and 66s, this on a whim to crush an enemy or maybe hold/gain back territory but with - apparrently - little thought for the end customers. Have we - the market - been asking for a dupllicate terrier and ex-Lima 66s in many liveries to be issued ASAP? No.

If the strategy fails, don't be surprised and if it works, it was a lucky guess, but one they cannot repeat often as sooner or later it will end up in disaster.

 

Even the best experts need to return back to the end customers to fully understand what they want. Are we after high level, mid level or low level models and how of each etc etc???

 

 

 

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

43 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

...companies with larger ranges - such as Hornby and Bachmann - are in the awkward position where they can't continuously update everything so they are bound to see smaller concerns with greater flexibility 'picking off' what they see as low hanging fruit ready to be supplanted by a model to more modern or better detailed standards.  At the moment in diesel land the Class 47 is arguably one open goal and the Class 37 is arguably another ...

Completely inevitable with diesels given how few traction unit subjects there are. Heljan can be added to the 'larger ranges' list in respect of diesels and have already seen the 47 and 52 picked off, Bachmann, the 24, and the 25,  55 and 66 to come. This isn't going to stop while customers put up the money for 'yet superior' versions.

 

Puzzled though in steam.  Duplicate of the B1. Why no one taking a crack at Hornby's lack lustre 5MT and 8F, or Bach's clearly deficient 5MT? (Understand this isn't what I want to happen, much rather that further diversity of choice is provided in steam, goodness knows there are enough worthy subjects that never had a RTR model.)

[TFR]

26 minutes ago, Andy Hayter said:

So how about you use your viewer to watch the layout.  The train arrives at the station and the doors open (already possible on a few models) but now you AR passengers disembark and passengers on the platform get on the train.

 

Exactly - there's endless possibilities. Looking into this a bit more and (no real surprise I guess) Lego have recently introduced AR:

 

https://www.lego.com/en-us/aboutus/news-room/2019/february/lego-hidden-side

 

https://www.lego.com/en-US/themes/hidden-side

 

 

 

 

Edited March 15, 2019 by TFR

[Captain Kernow]

2 hours ago, Corbs said:

It's complicated, but the general idea is that rather than Virtual Reality, where the world you look around at is completely computer-generated, what AR does is show you what is really there and 'augments' it with computer generated elements.

 

For example, the recent game Pokemon Go was played by holding up the player's smartphone to look around. The game projected computer-generated animals on to the real world when seen on the phone's screen. The CG animals would appear to sit on the ground or walk around.

 

Imagine if you could stand on the platform of London Paddington, hold your phone up and look around, and the phone showed you what the station would have looked like in steam days, allowing you to walk around the environment, whilst in real time it tracked on CGI people, steam locos, kiosks, pigeons, smoke effects etc.

 

This AR app is filming people in a real world environment and playing it back to them live, with Dinosaurs projected on

 

 

Thank you, Corbs. I am now enlightened.

 

But surely if you wanted dinosaurs on your layout, you would actually get some model dinosaurs and place them there?

 

Or if you wanted something else to appear, you could actually make a model of it?

 

[Captain Kernow]

2 hours ago, NIK said:

Hi,

 

Here is a theoretical model railway example - extra information is superimposed on the view of a mobile phone - in this case the DCC addresses of each loco in a fiddle yard (might be able to get the loco to be selected for driving by touching on the DCC address).

 

Regards

 

Nick

 

Thank you, I can see the reasoning in this, (assuming one didn't have a handy paper list with the necessary DCC information already shown on it).

 

I don't know what the coloured geometric shapes along the edge of the baseboard are supposed to signify, though.

 

 

Edited March 15, 2019 by Captain Kernow

[woodenhead]

5 minutes ago, Captain Kernow said:

 

Thank you, Corbs. I am now enlightened.

 

But surely if you wanted dinosaurs on your layout, you would actually get some model dinosaurs and place them there?

 

Or if you wanted something else to appear, you could actually make a model of it?

 

But if little Johnny has a 6x4 circuit and minimal scenery, AR could actually let him see his train surrounded by whatever can be created in the minds eye.

 

To the naked eye it's a circuit of track on the carpet, but in the AR view (goggles or via a phone/iPad) it is a country station or the planet Mars even where the train is running.

[Captain Kernow]

I must admit to finding this concept of 'augmented reality' very strange and the potential power of this technology slightly frightening.

 

If it is to be used to truly enhance the hobby, it should surely provide a dimension that actual modelling simply cannot (at the moment, at least) provide.

 

Specifically I could imagine someone superimposing realistic walking people on a layout, such as a shunter going about his business as a loco runs round it's train or a shunting horse slowly plodding along with a box van (that is powered and running with it's own mechanism).

 

The only dinosaur I anticipate projecting onto my layout is me.

 

[Captain Kernow]

Just now, woodenhead said:

But if little Johnny has a 6x4 circuit and minimal scenery, AR could actually let him see his train surrounded by whatever can be created in the minds eye.

 

To the naked eye it's a circuit of track on the carpet, but in the AR view (goggles or via a phone/iPad) it is a country station or the planet Mars even where the train is running.

Yes, I do understand where you are coming from, but whatever happened to the concept of imagination?

 

[57xx]

4 hours ago, Corbs said:

Thinking about product duplication, there's been quite a lot of this going on recently. The ones I can think of are:

 

GWR King

DJM Hattons - Hornby

 

Adams Radial

Oxford - Hornby

 

Terrier

Rails - Hornby

 

Class 92

Accurascale - DJM

 

Class 71

DJM - Hornby

 

Class 66

Bachmann - Hornby - Hattons

 

GWR 0-6-0ST

DJM Kernow MC- Heljan

 

At first I had thought that it seemed riskier for the smaller brands to make a new version of a loco that existed in older tooling, but looking at the list it seems equally harsh for models not previously seen in 00 RTR?

It also makes me feel very sad for DJM who keep having this happen to them.

 

 

Fixed a couple of items in your list so you don't have to feel so sad for DJM.

[woodenhead]

@Captain Kernow The whole world or AR/VR and people being shown saying things they haven't said (and worse when AR is inserted into Adult videos) - it is becoming hard to know what is a truth and what is a lie.

 

We can use common sense and think Obama didn't say that and that female celebrity wouldn't appear in a film like that  - but there are people who don't think beyond what they see and hear and believe some of this stuff to be factual.

 

I too fear for the future once people simply cannot tell the difference.

[woodenhead]

4 minutes ago, Captain Kernow said:

Yes, I do understand where you are coming from, but whatever happened to the concept of imagination?

 

This is getting dark now, but imagination is where people think for themselves, giving people tools like this gives the impression of free thinking but it is constrained by the algorithm of the IT - anyone who thinks Facebook is a tool for free thinking individualism is a fool, it controls what you see and when.

 

I don't think a lot of people want us thinking for ourselves anymore, much easier for them to tell us what we like and we just go along with it.

[Corbs]

Just now, woodenhead said:

@Captain Kernow The whole world or AR/VR and people being shown saying things they haven't said (and worse when AR is inserted into Adult videos) - it is becoming hard to know what is a truth and what is a lie.

 

We can use common sense and think Obama didn't say that and that female celebrity wouldn't appear in a film like that  - but there are people who don't think beyond what they see and hear and believe some of this stuff to be factual.

 

I too fear for the future once people simply cannot tell the difference.

I know we are careering off topic, but there is consensus at the moment that people who are growing up in the online world assume that most of it is fake, and it is my generation and the ones before it that are more likely to get caught out with 'fake news' etc. because we grew up at a time when it was taken as a given that the news etc. would be factual.

[57xx]

3 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

@Captain Kernow The whole world or AR/VR and people being shown saying things they haven't said (and worse when AR is inserted into Adult videos) - it is becoming hard to know what is a truth and what is a lie.

 

We can use common sense and think Obama didn't say that and that female celebrity wouldn't appear in a film like that  - but there are people who don't think beyond what they see and hear and believe some of this stuff to be factual.

 

I too fear for the future once people simply cannot tell the difference.

 

There's already a load of people out there who cannot differentiate reality with "fake". Just dip your toe in to the world of moon landing hoaxer and flat earthers on youTube where people claim that space and the ISS is fake and all green screen and wire harnesses. Be careful not to insert any more than a toe, the rabbit hole is deep and scary.

[woodenhead]

2 minutes ago, Corbs said:

I know we are careering off topic, but there is consensus at the moment that people who are growing up in the online world assume that most of it is fake, and it is my generation and the ones before it that are more likely to get caught out with 'fake news' etc. because we grew up at a time when it was taken as a given that the news etc. would be factual.

I think what we have are two groups - those who have been taught independent thinking and mindfulness and those that just accept whatever fodder is foisted at them via social media

[D9020 Nimbus]

8 hours ago, PMP said:

Lets face it there was no confusion in the mid sixties when it became Triang-Hornby, and obviously the management back then could see the value (based in Margate) of rebranding as Hornby Railways, and then as 'Hornby'. My non modelling school contemporaries knew 'Hornby' as the top of the RTR tree, or alternatively the only game in town back then. Triang was what you saw in the toy section of the K's/Freemans/Littlewoods catalogues to buy 'on tick'.

 

They had no choice—the Lines Brothers' empire was very large and the rights to the "Tri-ang" name went along with the prams to Barclay Securities. Dunbee-Combex-Marx therefore only had the Hornby name left when they took over the model railway side.

 

BTW, duplication is nothing new. Trix and Tri-ang Hornby both produced "Flying Scotsman" at about the same time. Airfix and Mainline the Royal Scots. It's widespread in Continental Europe too. There are current versions of the French BB67400 series from Piko, Jouef and REE; SNCF 030TU (USA tank) from Jouef and REE; in German N V100 diesels have been produced in recent times by Arnold, Fleischmann and Minitrix, 798 railbuses by Arnold, Minitrix and Piko, ... interestingly duplication over there doesn't seem to generate the angst it does here.

[woodenhead]

1 minute ago, 57xx said:

 

There's already a load of people out there who cannot differentiate reality with "fake". Just dip your toe in to the world of moon landing hoaxer and flat earthers on youTube where people claim that space and the ISS is fake and all green screen and wire harnesses. Be careful not to insert any more than a toe, the rabbit hole is deep and scary.

Indeed - I was reading an article recently on the death of Hitler - there is a whole industry in the written press that looks at various theories that he escaped - all ignore the evidence before them and ask historians to prove that the conspiracy version of events is untrue - so basically find evidence he didn't live in Argentina rather than accept that the bones and dental pieces found in Berlin along with testimony outweigh any other conspiracy theories.

[Neil]

12 minutes ago, Captain Kernow said:

Yes, I do understand where you are coming from, but whatever happened to the concept of imagination?

 

 

I think that for many of us it's there in what we make and there when we come to operate the layout. It allows us to drift away to our GWR branch terminus, the lineside of the Settle Carlisle or the set of scruffy sidings by the canal in the wrong side of town. Like you I wonder if VR or AR is targeting a problem or desire that just isn't there. But I suppose that if there are people willing to pay for it there's an argument for Hornby making it, but you could say that about power tools, saucepans and sofas. I think I'd prefer it if they concentrated their efforts on producing more industrial locos which my wallet finds hard to resist at the moment.

[Dunsignalling]

17 minutes ago, Corbs said:

I know we are careering off topic, but there is consensus at the moment that people who are growing up in the online world assume that most of it is fake, and it is my generation and the ones before it that are more likely to get caught out with 'fake news' etc. because we grew up at a time when it was taken as a given that the news etc. would be factual.

But isn't potentially judging something real to be false just as dangerous as accepting fake as real?

 

John

[woodenhead]

6 minutes ago, Neil said:

 

I think that for many of us it's there in what we make and there when we come to operate the layout. It allows us to drift away to our GWR branch terminus, the lineside of the Settle Carlisle or the set of scruffy sidings by the canal in the wrong side of town. Like you I wonder if VR or AR is targeting a problem or desire that just isn't there. But I suppose that if there are people willing to pay for it there's an argument for Hornby making it, but you could say that about power tools, saucepans and sofas. I think I'd prefer it if they concentrated their efforts on producing more industrial locos which my wallet finds hard to resist at the moment.

Simon said I think that this VR/AR stuff is for people who don't currently buy from Hornby, he's trying to establish new markets to augment what they already have.

 

I agree, more diddy engines, I would like some diddy pre 1910 locomotives too.

[Corbs]

16 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

I think what we have are two groups - those who have been taught independent thinking and mindfulness and those that just accept whatever fodder is foisted at them via social media

Absolutely, though in my experience it is people older than me who mindlessly repost fake articles without stopping to question them.

 

Just now, Dunsignalling said:

But isn't potentially judging something real to be false just as dangerous as accepting fake as real?

 

John

 

Absolutely! As mentioned above, flat earthers, no-planers (people who claim that missiles hit the twin towers instead of jet planes), lizard people, they're all a pain!

[Corbs]

30 minutes ago, Captain Kernow said:

Yes, I do understand where you are coming from, but whatever happened to the concept of imagination?

 

 

A very good point Captain, I think the best use of this tech would be to stoke rather than stifle imagination, as you say, to give people something they could not otherwise create themselves.

 

Incidentally, none of the layouts I had when I was a kid ever got past the track-and-baseboards stage, because I would just imagine all the scenery! Created my own AR, way ahead of the game.

[57xx]

7 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

But isn't potentially judging something real to be false just as dangerous as accepting fake as real?

 

 

Yes, see my post above. Whilst I reckon 95% of Flerfers are just teenage trolls in it to be edgy and don't really believe it, 1% are in it to sell merchandise/get cash of youtube views, there is a small percentage of gullible/vulnerable people who will get caught up believing the real world is a lie.

 

sorry, back to Hornby...

Edited March 15, 2019 by 57xx

[Dunsignalling]

I think where AR/VR might have great potential is in "living" backscenes, e.g. moving road traffic, pedestrians and livestock, clouds that move, shadows changing as the day passes.

 

Just needs an affordable way to scale up those dinky phone screens that don't break if you sit on them....

 

John

[CME and Bottlewasher]

I hope to read this thread more fully when time permits - BTW Dunsignalling's comments on AI/VR are similar to those of my own, a hybrid solution between virtual reality and reality, but I digress - off the bat and FWIW:-

 

As an ex student of business and a railway/military modeller (and part time slot car fan)I enjoyed both episodes. James May's wit added a nice flavour.

 

I don't think that Hattons' or Rails' representatives did themselves any favours, especially in front of the cameras (regardless of editing considerations) over Terrier/66-gate. I can see all three POVs, yet one cannot blame Hornby for fighting back. In the case of the Class 66? There is no case, its segmentation of the market - the only issue may be competing for scarce resources (cash), although the govt insists that we are all rolling in cash. The Terrier? A Hornby mainstream model in need of retooling, sadly leading to duplication by Dapol/Rails when theirs is released. In addition under anti competition rules/legislation Hornby could never declare such a model to a competitor. The business relationship, in that regard, must be very complex now that retailers have started to get into bed with the likes of Dapol. It was nice to hear however, that Rails and Hattons had placed large orders with Hornby though.

 

Perhaps the likes of Hattons, Rails, Gaugemaster et al, are a bit miffed at not being able to buy up Hornby (bankrupt) cheap?

 

Shame that the previous Hornby management team scrapped items such as tooling. Their previous management team seemed mypoic in the extreme.

 

I believe that running a model railway manufacturer, must be akin to one wearing a blue leotard, with a red cape and an 'S' emblazoned across ones chest. And the owners of smaller model shops, with compromised profit margins, ten years out of date, must be akin to the dream of owning a pub - far from all its cracked up to be! Issues with Chinese build quality and competing with the leverage held by the big box shifters? Nigh on impossible to make ends meet?

 

I noted that one Rep from one of the box shifters (I forget which), implied something about Hornby's Terriers gaining bad/poor reviews in the MSM modelling press? Were they implying, mafia like, that they hold so much sway/power (as advertisers) that they can influence publishers?

 

Circling back to Hornby, although not the be all and end all of business strategies, the 'core business' aspect seemed to go awry when Hornby got involved with projects such as London 2012 merchandise. Myopic - not all that glitters is gold!

 

I wish Hornby well, as an established manufacturer of long standing they deserve to catch a break and make some more luck for themselves. But it must be remembered that the manufacturers, if they don't maintain a duty of care, will loose 'multiplication' (ability to sell through multiple outlets). According to one source, last year, five small model shops a month are folding. They need more help with rent, business rates etc, but as I understand it, they also need more profit margin too.

 

Looking at manufacturing in China, QC and build quality issues, the 'war through commerce' used by Germany and then communists (post WWII), perhaps its time to move away from pseudo communist manufacturers. Perhaps those more allied to the UK, such as India, might be a better bet? Or one of the commonwealth countries?

 

I do hope that James May will take the programme format onwards, with more/longer series. Perhaps for balance, Dapol, Bachmann et al could be the subject matter, with a return/update on Hornby?

 

Regards,

 

CME

Edited March 15, 2019 by CME and Bottlewasher