BBC Four - James May's Big Trouble in Model Britain

[adb968008]

26 minutes ago, CME and Bottlewasher said:

As 5 model shops, like pubs, a month fall by the wayside

A few pages back, I put links to Hornby, Bachmann and Peco websites for customer listings, which suggested a range of between 400-600 retailers.

 

if 5 a week are closing then by year end there will be no shops left !!!

 

i might be cautionary of the future, but even i’m more optimistic than that !

Edited March 17, 2019 by adb968008

[Jeff Smith]

Ok dons hard hat.....A few comments on this thread.

 

I attended a local exhibition this Saturday.  There were maybe 20 odd layouts, two O gauge, one EM, one HO, a couple of N gauge, several 009, a couple of Z gauge the rest OO.  All, as far as I could tell were predominantly RTR.  Also there were several traders selling new and used RTR, almost all the OO were Hornby.  The only kits were structure or road vehicle, although I did see some old Ratio coach kits.  Not a single loco kit.....This probably reinforces the gulf between the RTR side of the hobby and the kit/scratch builders.

 

I can understand that older tooling took more effort and time to design and probably to produce than CAD  tooling, and that more modern design concepts may minimize assembly effort but even this modern tooling will need considerable manual assembly effort and reject rates.

 

 

[CME and Bottlewasher]

9 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

A few pages back, I put links to Hornby, Bachmann and Peco websites for customer listings, which suggested a range of between 400-600 retailers.

 

if 5 a week are closing then by year end there will be no shops left !!!

 

i might be cautionary of the future, but even i’m more optimistic than that !

You've quoted me and then misquoted me.

 

At its worst five model shops a MONTH were closing. As I said let's hope that has slowed.

 

I'm realistically optimistic too, but I don't subscribe to optimism when caution is required four square.

[adb968008]

12 minutes ago, CME and Bottlewasher said:

Five a MONTH at its worst point.

You might be in a hole, but I can throw you a rope...

 

25 “toy shops” closed in a single month in March 2018..

https://www.toysrus.co.uk/pages/store-closures

Don’t know if any of them had model Railways though.

 

According to Wikipedia 47 Modelzones closed between June and September 2013, that gets to around 4 per week.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modelzone

 

but both were extreme events.

 

Edited March 17, 2019 by adb968008

[PMP]

1 hour ago, The Johnster said:

I'd agree that it sounds counterintuitive, (snip)

It doesn’t sound counterintuitive, it sounds and is, unrealistic. Fran (071) who has current manufacturing experience and knowledge, confirms there’s no significant difference in tool use costs. 

 

The older tooling very probably allows Hornby (and others) to make higher margins on each unit sold than their more recent tooling. Commercially  it makes sense for them to use those assets to bring in the best financial returns they can, and the end product will be priced accordingly.

[CME and Bottlewasher]

34 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

You might be in a hole, but I can throw you a rope...

 

25 “toy shops” closed in a single month in March 2018..

https://www.toysrus.co.uk/pages/store-closures

Don’t know if any of them had model Railways though.

 

 

No rope required. I am not in a hole, but thanks anyway.

 

I hope that you are not making light of peoples' livelihoods/lives? Please note the "?" As it is hard to gauge intent and emotion on social media.

 

Stats have to be checked against empirical research and vice versa. Please see my reply to Andy York.

 

Im apolitical. The govt is constantly spouting stats that everyone in the UK is in clover. Many citizens are not. Since 2008 many have had their business, abilities to generate income/profit hampered and supressed, similarly wages and working conditions/terms. The perpetrators, 'the few' responsible for 2008? In UK? Not one gaoled and many were bailed out with tax payers' money. Whilst 'the many' have been suppressed and subjugated since 2008.

 

You have misquoted me though, you've stated 5 model shops a week are closing. I never stated that - are you stating such for exaggerated effect?

 

It is true to say, how does one define a model shop when compared to a toy shop, when there could be a cross over in lines stocked by either. This could affect both stats and perceptions.

 

The people who made me aware of the matter in hand, are subject matter experts and honourable fellows whom I trust. If I were conducting research for an academic paper, I would of course include information from such 'interviews' within the appendices, as part of the overall research. Eg. From the horses mouth so to speak.

 

These matters are going off topic and for the sake of others perhaps we should park the matter.

 

Please feel free to PM though.

Edited March 17, 2019 by CME and Bottlewasher

[PMP]

27 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

A few pages back, I put links to Hornby, Bachmann and Peco websites for customer listings, which suggested a range of between 400-600 retailers.

 

if 5 a week are closing then by year end there will be no shops left !!!

 

i might be cautionary of the future, but even i’m more optimistic than that !

 

I’d agree with that too. We all know there are fewer hobby shops than there were. If the fall off were that significant, I’d expect the back pages of RM/MR/BRM/HM to be noticeably thinning throughout the year as advertisers closed the doors. Again it’s obvious there are fewer shops advertising but I can’t believe that five shops per month are closing down. At the very least I’d expect to see that volume of closures reflected in comments on the ‘shop’ threads on here and elsewhere, and that doesn’t seem to be happening currently.

[PMP]

9 minutes ago, CME and Bottlewasher said:

 

I state again, you have misquoted me, you've stated 5 model shops a week are closing. I never stated such.

 

 With respect you certainly gave that impression (per month), intentionally or otherwise.

Edited March 17, 2019 by PMP

[newbryford]

3 hours ago, CME and Bottlewasher said:

 

 

As 5 model shops, like pubs, a month fall by the wayside,

 

7 minutes ago, CME and Bottlewasher said:

 

 

I state again, you have misquoted me, you've stated 5 model shops a week are closing. I never stated such.

 

 

 

 

Maybe not a direct quote, but difficult to interpret any other way............

[CME and Bottlewasher]

19 minutes ago, PMP said:

 With respect you certainly gave that impression (per month), intentionally or otherwise.

I stand by that fact Paul....please read my reply to Andy York.

18 minutes ago, newbryford said:

 

 

 

Maybe not a direct quote, but difficult to interpret any other way............

The facts are the facts, they can only be read one way AFAIC.

 

Please also read my reply to Andy York.

 

I have to presume that neither of you are in the trade, so are not struggling with the challenges that many within, four square, face.

 

As I mentioned prior, this is now all becoming somewhat off topic, other than to say that the manufacturers need to give more consideration to the smaller model shops, as do we all.

 

Back on topic, good night all.

Edited March 17, 2019 by CME and Bottlewasher

[newbryford]

5 minutes ago, CME and Bottlewasher said:

 

 

I have to presume that neither of you are in the trade, so are not struggling with the challenges that many within, four square, face.

 

 

 

You presume incorrectly.

 

 

[CME and Bottlewasher]

9 minutes ago, newbryford said:

 

You presume incorrectly.

 

 

Please declare your interest then, rather than one liners.

 

May I ask; are you the proprietor of a large or small model shop?

 

I'd be happy to hear if anything I've written doesn't apply to your business and that you are doing well, with subsidised business rates, high foot fall, and lucritive internet sales and as a SME model shop you are on 100% margins or more? In addition that the major manufacturers have given you better price breaks/margins than were present ten years ago, circa 2008?

 

Perhaps like Mr Rails you can afford a new Jaguar on a private plate?

 

If so I will be delighted to hear such as I am always happy to be proven wrong, through mistakes we learn.

Edited March 17, 2019 by CME and Bottlewasher

[newbryford]

13 minutes ago, CME and Bottlewasher said:

Please declare your interest then, rather than one liners.

 

May I ask; are you the proprietor of a large or small model shop?

 

I'd be happy to hear if anything I've written doesn't apply to your business and that you are doing well, with subsidised business rates, high foot fall, and lucritive internet sales and as a SME model shop you are on 100% margins or more? In addition that the major manufacturers have given you better price breaks/margins than were present ten years ago, circa 2008?

 

Perhaps like Mr Rails you can afford a new Jaguar on a private plate?

 

If so I will be delighted to hear such as I am always happy to be proven wrong, through mistakes we learn.

 

My interest is seeing the hobby grow as it pays my wage.

 

All I know is that I cannot name 5 model shops that fallen by the wayside in the last month, or for a few months previous,  as you stated.

Can you?

 

 

 

 

Edited March 17, 2019 by newbryford

[PMP]

20 minutes ago, CME and Bottlewasher said:

I stand by that fact Paul....please read my reply to Andy York.

The facts are the facts, they can only be read one way AFAIC.

 

Please also read my reply to Andy York.

 

I have to presume that neither of you are in the trade, so are not struggling with the challenges that many within, four square, face.

 

 

Martin, I had read your reply to Andy York, that changes nothing regarding my perception of the number of monthly shop closures.

 

Am I in the trade? I suppose that depends on your definition of ‘in the trade’, is my professional income from Model Railway retailing or manufacturing? Nope.

 

Do I have a wide range of contacts across the retail, manufacturing, and publishing sectors of the hobby, whom I assist from time to time in varying capacities? Yes, I do. 

 

So Martin, you tell me, am I in the trade or not?

[The Stationmaster]

1 hour ago, Jol Wilkinson said:

Dennis,

 

whether all those companies you list are manufacturers in the generally accepted sense is open to discussion. The facility to have a model manufactured on a sub-contract basis in China provides the opportunity for large retailers with sufficient funding to commission products, which may be welcome by many. Having the sole rights to retail that model also provides them with a competitive advantage in the marketplace. However, if that it puts at risk those businesses such as Hornby and Bachmann, who "manufacture" and distribute a far wider range of products to the retail outlets, then the hobby as followed by the majority will be much worse off.

 

Jol

Commissioning by retailers and others) is an interesting market area and one which works - or has worked thus far - in several different ways, some of which are in no way a direct threat to the old established 'manufacturers'.  Commissioning clearly started as a means of bringing to the market models which the big boys were unlikely to touch for a variety of reasons and that I think is still mainly how it works in many respects.  In that area it is only a threat to the established manufacturers as someone else trying to take a slice out of the cake of the overall market.   Crowd funding can in many respects (but not necessarily all) be seen as an extension of this sort of commissioning process with teh essential difference that the risk is transferred from the product developer/commissioner to the end customer.

 

But by extension of the idea of making things which the big boys aren't likely to touch it could also be seen as creating additional cakes.  So by inference the big boys wouldn't lose a sale of something because they've no interest in making and selling that something.  However in the case of Bachmann they do get a slice of the new cake if the work is commissioned from them either as tooling or as a livery variant - a market the previous management at Hornby were beginning to wake up to and join but one from which the present management has withdrawn (wherein there is no doubt a further story of upset retailers whose commissioned work into which they put resources was suddenly dropped; how not to build trust among your retailers?).  

 

Up to this sort of level the only thing the commissioners might have taken away from the big boys is where the customer decides he has a greater need/want for what they have on offer than what the big company has on offer.  But that was already the case in the market anyway although the range of choice was narrower.

 

The more recent emergence - in some cases for very complex reasons which needn't be gone into here - is where a commissioner (of any sort) goes head-to-head with one of the established companies.  Hattons tried it with the 'King' and it failed and then they tried it with the 48XX/58XX/14XX and they got it into the market.  But don't forget in both these cases, and with the upcoming Class 66 ,they were offering substantial detail improvements compared with current offerings from elsewhere as a justification and, obviously, as part of their business case.  Rails announced a similar process with the Stroudley A1/A1X and the fascinating part of that offer is that they placed the work with the only company which had to date tooled those locos for the British (or any other) market. nobody else had ever designed one for r-t-r.   A new(ish) broom at Hornby decided that it was about time they designed one so they have and we will have a head-to-head with roughly similar release periods, as previously happened with the Class 71.  

 

So there are now some instances of retailer commissions going directly head-to-head with the big boys and that might damage sales of one or both just as past head-to-head releases have.  But let's not confuse that with what the commissioners have done for the market in the past and with what Kernow's newly arrived D6XX are continuing to do - providing variety and providing models which people want.  Because if we, the end customers, didn't want them the commissioners, and new entrant 'manufacturers' such as Rapido and Accurascale, wouldn't be bothering.

[PaternosterRow]

Just watched the second episode.  Really enjoyed both.  Simon K came across really well and I can’t understand why Hornby let this very competent operator go in the first place.  At least he has passion for the business; something obviously lacking in those who ran it prior to his return.  I was really bemused by the reaction of Hattons and Rails re the 66 and Terrier.  That’s just good business for you; it’s all about competition in a free market isn’t it?  Thought the faux rage of the guy from Rails was a little hypocritical; why does he think it’s okay to use underhand tactics (the Banner) and not expect the same treatment from other competitors?  Liked the cool and dignified way SK handled the badgering he got from both of them.  Good luck to SK and I sincerely hope he succeeds with his difficult task of getting Hornby to turn a corner.  As May said - Hornby, Airfix and Scalextric defined my childhood.  How sad it would be to see it all go to the wall.

[CME and Bottlewasher]

1 hour ago, PMP said:

 

Martin, I had read your reply to Andy York, that changes nothing regarding my perception of the number of monthly shop closures.

 

Am I in the trade? I suppose that depends on your definition of ‘in the trade’, is my professional income from Model Railway retailing or manufacturing? Nope.

 

Do I have a wide range of contacts across the retail, manufacturing, and publishing sectors of the hobby, whom I assist from time to time in varying capacities? Yes, I do. 

 

So Martin, you tell me, am I in the trade or not?

 

1 hour ago, newbryford said:

 

My interest is seeing the hobby grow as it pays my wage.

 

All I know is that I cannot name 5 model shops that fallen by the wayside in the last month, or for a few months previous,  as you stated.

Can you?

 

 

 

 

Hi again fellas,

 

As I've mentioned. This 'conversation' is going off topic, which is not my wish.  I have answered Andy York's question, honestly and to the best of my knowledge. I have stated the empirical facts (sadly newbryford you wont declare yourself or state which name you are to be known by).

 

Paul, I'm glad you remembered my name, I still haven't heard back from you, from about 3yrs, or more, back, re your request for my feedback on your excellent DVD <rolls eyes in friendly jest and then chuckles>

 

All I can state, again, in a similar, but different way is that my sources are trustworthy four square and they're are time served and in the thick of it in terms of being in 'the trade'.  I cannot state more in open forum.

 

There are a myriad of reasons why model shops (and the subcategories within the term model shop or even toy shop) are closing, the same with the cottage industry suppliers/manufacturers. Its similar with pubs. But sadly they are. True things are changing due to the internet, tech etc, but also due to unleveled playing fields.

 

There is also a certain amount of skullduggery afoot which I cannot and shall not enter into on a public forum.

 

I am pleased to see that there is passion still burning within the hobby and there are, for some, the shoots of spring appearing (if much of the propaganda and faux news that surrounds 'Brexit/Bino' doesn't hamper such), but some are still not feeling the love of increased margins, on time delivery of ordered models etc etc.

 

I noted the grievances of Hattons and Rails in the documentary, if I were in their shoes I may have felt the same but I would have voiced it differently. However perhaps they should try going back to their roots of being a one or two person establishment in the model trade. It ain't easy, far from it.

 

With friendly and honourable competition in mind, we should all be pulling together in the hobby, if we want it to survive, not only for us, but for those following on behind us, hopefully (fingers crossed) the 'Thomas The Tank Engine' generation and others.

 

Let us park it there and let others have their say.

 

Feel free to PM me if  you wish.

 

Atvb

 

CME

 

Edited March 18, 2019 by CME and Bottlewasher

[Steamport Southport]

I haven't seen it yet so can't comment on the programme itself.

 

But if there was any real animosity then I doubt I would have received an email from Rails the other day telling me to buy Hornby Terriers. It even says Buy Now!

 

 

 

Jason

[CME and Bottlewasher]

3 minutes ago, Steamport Southport said:

I haven't seen it yet so can't comment on the programme itself.

 

But if there was any real animosity then I doubt I would have received an email from Rails the other day telling me to buy Hornby Terriers. It even says Buy Now!

 

 

 

Jason

Exactly, Jason, its a symbiotic relationship, even if it has gone awry.

[south_tyne]

So, up to now we have 38 pages of chat based on 2 hours of television! Good job this wasn't a 6-part series!! 

[Dunsignalling]

7 hours ago, JohnR said:

 

I think this dates back to the autumn, when there seemed to be some sharing of resources amongst the main model retailers, that I dont think received the level of comment it deserved.

 

Now, you can buy your Kernow O2 from Hattons  and your Hattons Barclay and P from Rails, Kernow and several others. 

 

Possibly not just the bigger ones, either. I noticed my local model shop had some Heljan-for-Hatton's Co-Bos on display recently.

 

John

[Dunsignalling]

6 hours ago, Jol Wilkinson said:

Dennis,

 

whether all those companies you list are manufacturers in the generally accepted sense is open to discussion. The facility to have a model manufactured on a sub-contract basis in China provides the opportunity for large retailers with sufficient funding to commission products, which may be welcome by many. Having the sole rights to retail that model also provides them with a competitive advantage in the marketplace. However, if that it puts at risk those businesses such as Hornby and Bachmann, who "manufacture" and distribute a far wider range of products to the retail outlets, then the hobby as followed by the majority will be much worse off.

 

Jol

 

I doubt I'm unique in buying almost none of the "far wider range of products" beyond locos, coaches and wagons, that are sold by Hornby and Bachmann.

 

Indeed, aside from the (very) occasional r-t-p building that tickles my fancy, I can't really think of much at all. The only things I remember buying more than once  over the years (albeit with modification in mind) have been Hornby's lattice footbridge kit and their 3-arch viaduct.

 

John

Edited March 18, 2019 by Dunsignalling

[blueeighties]

9 hours ago, CME and Bottlewasher said:

 

 

As 5 model shops, like pubs, a month fall by the wayside, 

So. During the past 6 months, according to your sources, that's 30 model shops that have closed down. Would you care to prove that fact? 

It's not all doom and gloom you know as much as doom and gloom tv and paper news reporters seem to delight in telling us, from where I'm sitting, the hobby seems to be in very good health indeed. And yes I consider myself 'trade'.

[jjb1970]

On the matter of what constitutes a manufacturer, that's quite a question. Dapol have some manufacturing capability but their more complex products are made in China. Hornby manufacture in China but have their own design capability which lifts them above just being another commissioner I think. Others use the Chinese factories to design and their input is essentially limited to reviewing what the factory design team prepares and signing off on the designs. The only true manufacturer in the traditional sense out of the mainstream OO suppliers is probably Bachmann. They are the OO subsidiary and market facing brand name for Kader. Kader are a major toy and model manufacturer with interests in a huge range of toy and model markets. 

[BB34081]

It struck me that those retailers that want to enter the manufacturing arena should be providing us with previously unavailable models (Hatton's Garrett, Rails' Autocar being good examples) instead of reinventing the wheel (Terrier, Class 66, Deltic). Now, where's my wishlist - Ah, yes - Southern 'U' 2-6-0!