APT Resurrection?

[Vistisen]

6 minutes ago, Crewlisle said:

This may sound like a naive question but could someone like Rapido or Hornby buy the APT scans off the liquidators and carry on negotiating with the Chinese manufacturer about APT tooling and eventual manufacture to modern standards, even to restrict it to a five or six car set?

Actually I think it is a good question. I suppose it is a question of whether they can buy them at a price that saves them  enough money, that the project become viable. But I think that any wise company at the moment will wait and see what Brexit brings.

[adb968008]

Why is everyone quoting retail margins ?

 

as the post above says using Harry Potter.. only one making any money is them that made it, not those selling it.

 

Hornbys customer is the retailer.

Hornby has set trade prices.

Retailer pays that price for it.

 

Retailers used to squeal whenever Hornby sold off stock at a discount, so the new team publically declared they wont.

 

so none of the arithmetic makes any difference in above.. Hornby makes it, sells it, its gone.

 

What retailers do with it, is irrelevant in the big scheme of things, as long as Hornby gets paid by the retailers.

 

 

 

 

Edited July 24, 2019 by adb968008

[dogbox321]

18 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Why is everyone quoting retail margins ?

 

as the post above says using Harry Potter.. only one making any money is them that made it, not those selling it.

 

Hornbys customer is the retailer.

Hornby has set trade prices.

Retailer pays that price for it.

 

Retailers used to squeal whenever Hornby sold off stock at a discount, so the new team publically declared they wont.

 

so none of the arithmetic makes any difference in above.. Hornby makes it, sells it, its gone.

 

What retailers do with it, is irrelevant in the big scheme of things, as long as Hornby gets paid by the retailers.

 

 

 

 

 

Sorry, but this is deviating from APT.  Cannot quite see how people are quoting trade prices.  Only those in the trade know that, and I've been in it, in the past, for a friend who tried to run a model shop.    

 

Model Retailing is about box-shifting.  Manufactuers after all recent price rises want one thing, with items like locos and wagons - to buy enough to sell out upon receipt, so they have no stock to hold!  That places pressures on model shops to hold the correct levels of stock.  Too little and you loose revenue.  Too much, and your stuck with stock that has to be paid for in 30 days, and the possibility of an account on hold until you pay it - hence you may loose out on the next big model!  Personally, I feel the 10% and 15% maximum reductions in x weeks does not promote the hobby, brings in a game of "call my bluff".  If your prepared to risk loosing out, then you can wait and hope someone will be selling it off.  There is so much competition, that models need to sell quickly, and people are having to be more and more selective! 

 

Regarding the APT, then I think there is some level of viability, I just think it needs to a detailed marketing plan, to be done correctly to be successful.   I have a fair idea how I would do it!  Someone will do it when they feel there is a business case to produce it, and the numbers add up, for their business.  Personally, at the moment there is no rush, with many superb models due in the next year or so!

 

Regards,

 

C.

 

 

 

[adb968008]

I dont think the APT is viable.

 

if Hornby had the old tooling, and could stick a new railroad motor in it, then it might make a unique 1 off run.

 

I think Anyone doing a new tooling APT would be mad... theres oodles of more lucrative options for the same amount of investment capital.

[oleander]

I have read this topic on here. Some really good points.

Is It Viable ,well theres a question. Look at what been done in the past on odd ball locos . They have all sold and broken even and some have had several re runs . Yes I take the point that they are a loco on its own and now a full train. Then we have the second hand market were the price of APT keeps on going up . Yes there is the saying supply and demand. Supply is ok I would not say limited. Demand must be high . I think the biggest deciding factor would be the RRP. That would depend on the spec. All singing and dancing it would push the price up. The APT keeps on  apearing on Hornbys wish list.
A few points I have been thinking about since DJM went bust.

Couplings and bogie detail.

Take the articulated bogie. The old Hornby coupling has a very strong postive lock to it. Which is need as the bogie has to be come a single unit. If these bogies were super detailed ,all the pipes etc . I think you would be for ever breaking parts. The coupling between the power car and brake is good. So the Hornby designe would be a good starting place.

Tilting

Hornby approch to it was good and works. Ok DJM was looking at servo route. This to me adds massive cost. Yes 9g servo cost naff all but its the eletronics etc. Ok the apt should not tilt on points but running it on set track is out of scal so tilting on points is not an issue .

Motor

This would need to be upgraded not to hard to do.

Detailing

over all the Hornby Apt was good. The problem I find with supdetailed locos is you are for ever in fear of breaking them and that detail cost a lot. Yes give the APT a tidy up ,seperate wippers etc . But things like DJM was on about a lifting nose. Very nice but at what cost. That would add a fair bit to the price. And lets be fair now many people would use it ?

I think 5 car set to start with would do well . Extra cars could be done as well. If we look at the apt. You have a DTV ,Power car and a Brake car. Take the two DTV cut it in half and re assamble and you have a 1st or 2nd articulated coach. For a dinning car cover some windows . Ok the inside would be diffrent on the coachs but the basic mould is the same. All they would need to do is change one side on the dinning car which can be done on the moulding process.

 

over all I think it is a viable project .

 

John

[guarded]

Ive just noticed that Kato in association with Peco,have just dipped a toe into the U.K. RTR scene.This makes me very excited as for many years at Warley I have observed and loved their various Bullet Train models,which are not only superb to look at,but also superbly and ingeniously marketed,thus encouraging to complete a full rake rather than discouraging,as many seem to do.There can surely be no greater way to announce a arrival than a full-on model Englands own Bullet Train,the APT-P.Its almost like it was meant to be.

[mdvle]

39 minutes ago, guarded said:

Ive just noticed that Kato in association with Peco,have just dipped a toe into the U.K. RTR scene.This makes me very excited as for many years at Warley I have observed and loved their various Bullet Train models,which are not only superb to look at,but also superbly and ingeniously marketed,thus encouraging to complete a full rake rather than discouraging,as many seem to do.There can surely be no greater way to announce a arrival than a full-on model Englands own Bullet Train,the APT-P.Its almost like it was meant to be.

 

Kato have already announced that they are doing the Class 800 in N.

 

It is unlikely that Kato will do anything in OO as they seem to really only like N scale, with their American HO line essentially abandoned with only very occasional reruns of old models.

 

 

 

[adb968008]

4 hours ago, mdvle said:

 

Kato have already announced that they are doing the Class 800 in N.

 

It is unlikely that Kato will do anything in OO as they seem to really only like N scale, with their American HO line essentially abandoned with only very occasional reruns of old models.

 

 

 

Given the huge numbers of Japanese railway enthusiasts turning up along the GWR and LNER this summer thats not a surprise at all.

 

Ive had some great meetings on various platforms this summer.

[GWR-fan]

It is a pity that Kato have not stepped up to the British "OO" scene as I always regarded them as the pinnacle of quality in "h.o." and "N" gauges.

[GWRtrainman]

On 22/07/2019 at 18:01, melmoth said:

 

That in itself, and taken in isolation, doesn't actually prove anything. I'm sure this has been debated on here before.

 

Example (all figure completely made up)

 

You buy 100 models at £75 each from a producer to sell in your shop - cost £7500

The model has an RRP of £100 - potential income £10000

You sell 70 models at RRP - actual income £7000

You discount the remaining 30 by 30% and sell them all at £70 each - actual income £2100

Overall income £9100

Overall profit (before any of the many other costs invovled) £1600

 

Overall, in this purely fictional example, you've made a profit despite selling almost a third of your inventory below cost price*

 

Now unless anyone knows exactly how many Lord Nelsons Rails bought and at what price, it is well nigh impossible to make assumptions about the cost price and margins involved.

 

*there is some much else to consider, but this is really just to make a point about isolated statistics

 

and a few less hypothetical figures on the cost side you've ignored:

 

VAT 20% - £2,000

Staff costs (around 7.5% in my supermarket) - £750

Rent, Rates, Lights, Heating - ?

Credit Card margin - 2% - £200

Website - a share of the development, hosting and fees - ?

Shrinkage - shoplifting, parcels not received - 1% - £100

 

Without getting detailed someone just risked £7500 and ended up owning £1300 +

 

Sorry, but Gross Profit does not equate to a viable business model - certainly not in Retailing.

[njee20]

I think you miss his point, he clearly stated the numbers were totally theoretical, and that there are myriad other costs not included.

[melmoth]

 

3 hours ago, njee20 said:

I think you miss his point, he clearly stated the numbers were totally theoretical, and that there are myriad other costs not included.

 

Yep, absolutely. As I said in my following post in this topic (emphasised below):

 

On 22/07/2019 at 19:25, melmoth said:

 

The point about my hypothetical example is that it is completely fictional, it doesn't illustrate anything except that a single statistic taken in isolation cannot be relied upon to prove a case. For a start, it completely ignores any of the other costs involved in running a business.

 

What I wanted to show, quite simply, was that it is possible that deeper discounting can incur a loss per item sold at the discounted price, while not resulting in an overall loss on all sales of that particular item.

 

If you do not know what the cost price, the original margin and  the quantity ordered (and going further, the fixed costs to be paid for out of profit (margin), and the similar variable costs of the business), it is difficult to accurately judge the profitability of any given item. And I've not even looked at VAT.

 

Which brings me back roughly to where I started: that it is impossible to make an assumption about the details of a particular retail example from a single statistic, so whether or not Rails have discounted a model by 30/40% is irrelevant without other figures to help prove the point one way or the other.

[TravisM]

8 hours ago, GWR-fan said:

It is a pity that Kato have not stepped up to the British "OO" scene as I always regarded them as the pinnacle of quality in "h.o." and "N" gauges.

 

Kato basically caters for the Japanese home market and N gauge is huge over there because housing is eye wateringly expensive and to be honest, small.  As pointed out, the HO US market has struggled so why would they want to enter the UK OO market with their Class 800 as Hornby was first past the post.

[adb968008]

As someone else said on here, making a profit is easy, making an income is hard.

 

if I thought there was an income to be had in model railways, my passion of over 40 years, a parental lineage with 70 years, including my father’s 20 years working in this very model railway industry as a manufacturer’s rep.. i’d be doing it.

 

i dabbled 30 years ago, had a swapmeet stall bigger than Rails, and John even bought stuff from me, (made him pay cash too), but post Uni, I got a normal job instead. Rails has done fantastically well, but theyve worked unbelievably hard and made sacrifices to do it...

 

Full respect to everyone who gives it a go, but i’m sure anyones business case for doing a model is based on much more than deducting sales price from cost price multiplied by as many as they think they can sell, then deciding where to go on vacation with the difference.

 

Tooling up 7 different vehicles, 1 livery, limited geography, 3 prototypes with a short life that no ones seen move on its own for over 30 years would seem risky. Indeed I thinking tooling the 91 &mk4’s is a bit of a risk, but then theres 30 years and as many livery options to offer to spread that risk...and over years not just 1 run.

 

Maybe if someone with millions bought a 91, blunted both ends and inserted into the preserved APT set to make it run again, there might be a chance, but right now 2x 2 car multiple units and 1x 3 car would be a lower risk than 7 APT toolings, people might buy more than 1 of each too...where as with APT not many are going to buy 2 or more (theres always 1 who will buy all 3).

 

 

Edited July 30, 2019 by adb968008

[Legend]

I see that Simon Kohler on the Signal Box Live  broadcast has confirmed that the APT moulds were amongst those destroyed  by the previous management when they moved to Sandwich . I think a bit of a missed opportunity there , but that’s it .  The only people I can see releasing one is Rapido as they’ve already gone APT-E , but I think that’s a long shot . 

[JSpencer]

On 30/08/2019 at 20:02, Legend said:

I see that Simon Kohler on the Signal Box Live  broadcast has confirmed that the APT moulds were amongst those destroyed  by the previous management when they moved to Sandwich . I think a bit of a missed opportunity there , but that’s it .  The only people I can see releasing one is Rapido as they’ve already gone APT-E , but I think that’s a long shot . 

 

Rapido previously said no. If the class 91 & mk 4s are a success, I could imagine that this would be a great follow on subject for Cavalex.

[cornish trains jez]

Morning all,

 

The APT is in Hornbys new 2020 catalogue. 5 car and 7 car sets are on offer with two car add on sets.

Looks like it will be resurrected after all! 
Exciting times ahead!

 

Best regards,

 

Jeremy

 

[Legend]

On ‎30‎/‎08‎/‎2019 at 19:02, Legend said:

I see that Simon Kohler on the Signal Box Live  broadcast has confirmed that the APT moulds were amongst those destroyed  by the previous management when they moved to Sandwich . I think a bit of a missed opportunity there , but that’s it .  The only people I can see releasing one is Rapido as they’ve already gone APT-E , but I think that’s a long shot . 

 

Oops . Got that one wrong!

[Pete the Elaner]

19 minutes ago, Legend said:

 

Oops . Got that one wrong!

You were not alone.

I have always considered it risky to produce a multiple unit, even one as iconic as this.

[The Stationmaster]

37 minutes ago, Pete the Elaner said:

You were not alone.

I have always considered it risky to produce a multiple unit, even one as iconic as this.

I think this is the biggest risk in Hornby's programme (including Steam Punk).  From what is in the public arena DJM fell well short of getting 1,000 orders for his idea of an APT although Hornby is going in at an apparently lower price level (until you start building it up to a full length train - where teh market must surely be miniscule?).  so you come back to the crunch question - will it be sufficiently profitable to repay the investment and provide a profitable return on the capital invested (i.e. enough to leave some excess over after paying for the capital loans).

 

Hornby's number crunchers must obviously think it will d unlike DJM they do at least have customer trust when they say they are going to produce something.  But which retailers are going to invest their money in buying all the various extra add-on vehicles when they will probably sell at a much slower rate than the initial train?   Some complex marketing problems in there and it will be fascinating to see how well it does.

[Ouroborus]

2 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

 But which retailers are going to invest their money in buying all the various extra add-on vehicles when they will probably sell at a much slower rate than the initial train?   Some complex marketing problems in there and it will be fascinating to see how well it does.

 

I think it'll be a pre-order thing.  Hornby will make enough to satisfy demand plus a few over.   As for second run - depends on how the first lot goes.  A bit like DJM really - if you want one, time to put an order in.

[Hroth]

If they sell out the initial production run of the complete sets, and the add-ons approac estimated sales, then surely they must recoup development costs? 

 

Then its a case of looking after the tooling for occasional runs in the future, especially when ebay sales indicate a possible demand for another run.

[WalnutHill]

One has to wonder if Hornby purchased all the work done by DJM on the APT from the receiver....I am sure it would speed up development.

 

I see that Hornby only appear to have shots of the real thing and no samples etc., which probably indicates it is in the early stages of development.

[Padishar Creel]

1 hour ago, WalnutHill said:

One has to wonder if Hornby purchased all the work done by DJM on the APT from the receiver....I am sure it would speed up development.

 

I see that Hornby only appear to have shots of the real thing and no samples etc., which probably indicates it is in the early stages of development.

Hallo,

In the other APT thread it is stated (quoted) that Hornby did not use any of the work done by DJM.

Maybe this thread should now be locked.

es grüßt 

pc

[Phil Parker]

1 hour ago, WalnutHill said:

One has to wonder if Hornby purchased all the work done by DJM on the APT from the receiver....I am sure it would speed up development.

 

They have categorically said this isn't the case. I understand the DJM data has been offered to other manufacturers who turned it down.