Lost Sales Opportunity

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

Arising out of that 'current incident' is a more general topic that has interested me for some time.  A couple of quotes relating to this topic from 'Fenman' and Phil Parker respectively, with both of which I am much in sympathy:

 

"... shouldn't assume that every modeller just has a fixed pot of cash to spend on this particular hobby. Some will. Some won't. I don't know the proportions, but it certainly isn't as simple as saying "well, if Fenman spent that £X on APT vapourware then that's money he didn't spend on the Hornbach XYZ, which is lost to the hobby"."

 

"With shorter runs and a "buy it or miss out" mentality, I'm not sure the idea that there is a specific size cake that can be divided up still holds. If the right product (a Deltic perhaps) appears, then the cake might get a bit bigger that year. If there is nothing that grabs modellers, then the cake will be smaller.".

 

Experience tells me that the size of my 'annual model railway cake' is very variable indeed. And that cake size is driven by the availability of suitable product - I have been thoroughly trained into the  'buy now or miss out' mentality - so that when the right items go on sale, the purchase(s) are made. Now, having got me trained in this way, the corollary for those offering the products should be obvious: if you want my money on a regular and continuing basis, then a steady stream of new product introductions are essential.

 

This steady stream of new product introductions isn't happening in my perception. Instead it is very 'lumpy', a famine and feast situation. So much as I enjoy a good local model shop, and wish to support it, I am now approaching a year with little to purchase. No effect whatsoever from crowd funding, successful or unsuccessful, as nothing to suit my interest has yet been announced from such sources.  This I feel should concern the retail trade, and that trade interest can and should do something toward rectifying it in my opinion; on the assumption that the manufacturers are attuned to the requirements of their customers.

 

It is very simple in principle, informing the manufacturer representatives that what is introduced should aim to cover as many of the significant interests of that retailer's customer base as possible. Nationally compiled, such input should go some way to reducing the 'famine and feast' effect: if the manufacturers heed and act on it. (I'd not be surprised at a 'too little too late' style reaction: that the larger retailers are now well underway in the business of obtaining their own supplies of what they believe their customer base will purchase tells the story.)

 

Finally:

 

..."If a lollypop model' isn't on the horizon, you might be more tempted to spend the cash on wild women and beer rather than more model railways."

 

When it comes to this aspect, in my experience available disposable income not blown on model railway is deployed by an entirely civilised, sober and dignified woman on interior decoration, furnishings, the garden, etc.. Wild women are definitely not required for 'the cake' to be diverted elsewhere...

 

 

[The Johnster]

Don't knock wild women and beer, 34...

 

You raise some interesting points.  I think that in general modellers nowadays are more wealthy, or at any rate have more disposable income, than ever before, and the idea that a model railway is a collection, built up over many years and that you bought your 60 wagon mineral train wagon by wagon to spread the cost is no longer the way most of do it.  I did, to some extent, but I am an untypical modeller, a pensioner on a very limited fixed income.  We want it all, we want it now, and many of us can pay for it all, now, or at least on a credit card.

 

If we allow the sound of violins to diminish for a moment, I am nonetheless able to afford my hobby, having opted for a small BLT with limited requirements that I can pay for, admittedly not all at once, without impinging on my requirements to pay bills, eat, and indulge in beer (I have a woman who would redefine wild if I did anything beyond that...).  There are people who order entire 10+ coach trains of RTR stock at about £500 a pop, or 60 wagon minerals at about £1,200, and good luck to them; I have no axe to grind on the matter, but this sort of buying power from what might be described as average modellers must have an effect on the way the models are marketed to us.  In the light of this, I can understand manufacturers not taking much notice of my wants and desires, as I am, I suspect, in a minority, and not one that can fight it's corner with sheer spending power at that.

 

A friend who, prior to his retirement, was a lecturer in business studies at a local university, once told me that giving the customer what they want is the surest known way to bankruptcy, second only to cutting prices.  Marketing is about telling them exactly what they want and how much they are willing to pay for it, because otherwise they only have vague and ephemeral ideas.  I'm not saying I agree, but I can see what he's getting at...

 

 

Edited June 26, 2019 by The Johnster

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

18 hours ago, The Johnster said:

Don't knock wild women and beer, 34...

Wondrous things in their way, but these are for the young, to push up the value of my drinks industry, jewellery and baby's nappies manufacturing  shares...

 

18 hours ago, The Johnster said:

...Marketing is about telling them exactly what they want and how much they are willing to pay for it, because otherwise they only have vague and ephemeral ideas...

Well indeed, and with respect to model railway the expectation side of marketing has worked, I want to plunk money down for yet more lovely models. What I am getting at present instead is reupholstered furniture, and coming soon a tasteful new assortment of curtains drapes. (Yes, they look and work like curtains, but so wonderfully that they come at three times the price.)

[The Stationmaster]

All of which, I think, explains the opening for newcomer and smaller 'manufacturers' and commissioners and also probably the reason why 'pretty Pre-Group' engiens (and occasionally rolling stock) can actually be considered for the market by any manufacturer/commissioner.

 

The trick of course comes in two ways - firstly picking things which will have legs as a subject and will attract the 'elastic' demand (and money) and secondly getting it to market (which can sometimes take a long time for all  sorts of reasons.  This is perhaps indicative of where it can go wrong because if regular surveys and wishlists are the limits of the 'manufacturers' horizons they might well find others treading on their toes and we are faced by duplication and too much choice.  In contrast if the 'manufacturer' can manage some original thought or a theme approach - even if it just happens to be things they like - it can turn out to be something which races off their shelves.

 

Like the OP nothing from crowdfunding has yet tickled my fancy and if it ever did I would approach the deal very much in the way we have explored in the crowdfunding thread.   I would have to know quite a bit about the commissioning crowdfunders and the manufacturer' before I'd be prepared to offer them some of my hard earned pension money.  And I am in fact just as wary when it comes to acting as a business' financier when it comes to an advance deposit - even if I know they are a safe pair of hands or where I should be heading in a state of high dudgeon should things not turn out as promised.  

 

Equally interesting is that for the past few years some attractive (to me subjects) have appeared via the commissioning route and I have bought them (usually pre-ordered) because if that.  This is perhaps a gap the smaller producers and commissioners can fill but it does have the problem that gestation can be an extended process and the arrival of these goodies then gets involved in the 'lumpy' process.  But equally lumpy is stuff coming from the big boys in the manufacturing (in somebody else's factory) part of the industry.   That is probably a consequence of dealing with factories on the other side of the world which are frequently small businesses and who are producing items - not always model railway items - for whatever customers they can find around the western world.  I don't think that is ever going to change, certainly not at contemporary price levels unless manufacturing is tackled in another way.

 

Will the nirvana of the list of what we want/need ever happen.  I doubt it - the nearest we get to are results from surveys such as that carried out by Brian MacDermott and hs team but even then we go back to the risk of duplication of the most popular subjects (ok with some wagons perhaps?) and maybe even accusations of manufacturers putting their heads together and breaking consumer laws by slicing up the market.  At the end if the day they will produce what they think know will sell and deliver profitability by at least covering direct costs but ideally making a contribution to their business.

 

The other problem is getting us lot to agree on what we want and that really is aiming for the. stars.  '34C' and I could well agree on some wagons we'd like, 'The Johnster' and I would definitely agree on certain wagons we'd like and maybe some coaches as well.  but the manufacturers will want to make locos because that's where the bigger profits lie (followed by coaches).  So our united front on wagons might come a long way down the heap and we'll get one a year if we're lucky and we'll order them in advance to make sure we get the ones we want or as many as we want/are prepared to afford.  Which sort of takes us right back to where the thread started. oops.

[The Johnster]

Succinctly put, Mike.  I live in hope of a Dapol 4mm diagram N auto trailer, their 7mm put through the shrink ray, but don't really rate the chances of it ever happening and don't feel 'entitled' enough to demand that one be produced; I doubt much can be made from such a model, and the trade has to satisfy it's shareholders first.

 

But don't let that stop you if you're thinking about it, Dapol; I'll buy one, and I reckon Mike, Tomparryharry, 88D, Fat Controller and one or two others would as well...

[mdvle]

On 26/06/2019 at 06:33, 34theletterbetweenB&D said:

Experience tells me that the size of my 'annual model railway cake' is very variable indeed. And that cake size is driven by the availability of suitable product

 

Individual modeller budgets can be variable - one can postpone other items to next year or use credit - but at some point that average modeller will have a "cheap" year either to pay of the credit or pay for the other things that are accumulating.

 

But overall if you look at the hobby as an entirely the amount spent per year is going to remain reasonably constant as the averages even out across the population of modellers.

 

Quote

This steady stream of new product introductions isn't happening in my perception. Instead it is very 'lumpy', a famine and feast situation.

 

But what happens will depend on a specific modellers area of interest, and to a lesser extent the issues surrounding  production in China and the challenges it can periodically present.

 

Several months ago I counted and I think I came up with around 30 new items (new tooling) announced last year, plus all the additional runs of existing models.

 

So far this year we have a Class 92, Mk5, Class 91, Mk 4, PFA, PTA/JTA/JUA, TEA (Cavelex), KFA/PFB, SECR Box Van, Hornby had 9 items so that makes at least 18 new items for half of this year.

 

[edit] oops, make that 20 new items, as Hornby also announced the Terrier and Heljan the Class 45 [/edit]

[edit2] and Revolution IPA, so 21 new items[/edit2]

 

So the new items are there, though maybe not for your particular interests.

 

Quote

So much as I enjoy a good local model shop, and wish to support it, I am now approaching a year with little to purchase. No effect whatsoever from crowd funding, successful or unsuccessful, as nothing to suit my interest has yet been announced from such sources. 

 

It's not so much crowd funding that is causing issues for retailers, but rather the direct Internet / show sale model that is causing an issue as well as exclusive retailer commissions.

 

Which is another way of saying that the retailers need to adapt or die. 

 

Edited June 27, 2019 by mdvle

[The Johnster]

Well, an early decision on the current layout, intended to avoid the mistakes of all the previous ones, was to keep it cheap, simple, and reliable.  It was never going to have the space to be much more than a BLT anyway.  The 'cheap' requirement was holed below the waterline very rapidly by the failure of my existing locos, stored for the best part of 3 decades, to various manifestations of Mainline split chassis disease, which meant that I spent a lot more in the early stages on locos than I'd planned.  Then, the initial spending out of the way, the prices started to rise and I made a conscious decision to complete the loco purchasing during 2018 while I could still afford it, an intention largely realised (Bachmann 94xx on shopping list and if I have windfall cash I might spring for a Hornby or Dapol large prairie, and a chassis kit must be built for a Wills 1854).  2019 is the 'year of the coach' for similar reasons, and is progressing solidly.

 

I have enough mineral and general goods, and too much NPCCS, so any further purchasing in these fields will be minimal and in dribs and drabs.  There are things I want but don't need, such as a plywood Ashford van, but by and large I am of little further interest to RTR manufacturers' marketing people.  They want to coax me out of my non-spendy bunker, they need to come up with a diagram N trailer or a Collett 31xx; these are not reasonable things to ask for...

 

I haven't finished spending, of course; major outlays are planned for Dapol working signals and relaying in code 75 bullhead, but these can wait until funds are available.  I have the most successful layout I've ever had in terms of satisfaction, in almost daily use, and I expect it to continue to satisfy until I am myself withdrawn from service, beyond economic repair.

[D9020 Nimbus]

With regard to auto-trailers, I wouldn't be surprised to see Hornby revisit the 14xx/autotrailer market at some time. Probably just after Dapol announce theirs...

[The Johnster]

14xx and A28/30 trailer, both imprived versions of the old Airfix items, are currently in the Hornby catalogue, Nimbus.   Dapol might have go at a Metro or 517 to go with theirs...

 

Then I woke up. 

[Baldwin30762]

I to get this, for me it was the long awaited L&BR 2-6-2 Manning Wardle from Heljan, only to find that after all the preproduction work that went into it it came up short, it now appears that even with the introduction of the MK2 this has not made any difference to the sale of this model and peopl are very warey of buying a loco which has a doggy past.

 

I just hope that when the L&BR Baldwin 'LYN' appears next Year it is to a better standard and sales will improve, it has been along time coming to produce RTR 009 locos and rolling stock, but I can see the manufactures all jumping on the band wagon to do the market justic.

 

Will this be a good thing? only time will tell for 009 , with Bachmann doing Hunslet Quarry Locos, I am just waiting for the new generation of 009 Rabbit warren layouts to appear on the exhibtion circuit.

 

Colin 

[tomparryharry]

I was going to gripe about the dearth of later period (WW1 to WW2)  mineral wagons. Principally, coal wagons. Then I realised I could buy the proper thing from places like Cambrian & Powside. The current RTR generic offerings retail at a higher price that a finely detail model. Why settle for less?

 

If you're going to spend a lot of money on a 'sort of' model, it seems right & proper to maximise your spending potential on something that fits your bill. It's like buying a pair of trousers with the right waist, but about 6" longer in the leg. Being a shortarse, it's something to which I can regularly identifty.  

 

Modellers can & do go 'niche-niche'. That is,with such a hopelessly small market, it quickly becomes highly non cost effective to cater for all. I think I'd rather have a limited number of the right stuff, than a full rake of "well, nearly...." I think it's less lost opportunity, more failure to find the right item.

 

Back now to searching for a new pair of jeans. Size 'odd'. 

 

Ian.

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

On ‎28‎/‎06‎/‎2019 at 15:47, The Johnster said:

 ...They want to coax me out of my non-spendy bunker, they need to come up with ...

I do hope this inspires someone to build a layout based on ingenious recycling to provide practically everything on it. "Nnonspendi was famed as a tight fisted community, and the Grumblian Railway was content to place Cashles Halt a few miles distant, because there would never be the revenue to justify the significant civil engineering works required to place a station closer..."

 

2 hours ago, tomparryharry said:

...Modellers can & do go 'niche-niche'. That is,with such a hopelessly small market, it quickly becomes highly non cost effective to cater for all...

That tends to take care of itself though, ambitions to go niche-niche are typically accompanied by recognition of the need for DIY?

[The Johnster]

My layout is literally based on recycling; the baseboards are skip raid Ikea shelves.  Further recycling is the use of Sainsbury's cafe coffee stirrers for all sorts of things; fencing, plank loads, paint stirrers, ad hoc tools to get things out of flangeways, and more.  They've even turned up as footboards on Dean bogies, well, ersatz lookalike Dean 8'6" bogies converted out of the BR B1s fitted to shorty Triang clerestories at any rate.  Cut the tiebar out, cut the stirrer in half lengthways, cut rebates for the axleboxes, trim to length, and superglue; if you are happy to accept the compromises inherent in the Triang clerestories this will be good enough for you!

 

I think the idea of a recycled cheap layout is admirable, but in practice has hidden costs and material use that negates it's green credentials.  

 

Old tools are re-used in roles they were not designed for when they are too far gone for the damage to matter; screwdrivers with worn blades are good for opening paint tins and as precision chisels, for example, but I've yet to find a use for worn knife blades!

[stewartingram]

Worn knife blades? Good for cleaning wheels. Especially if on a powered loco, almost like using a hand-held lathe. Good on wagon/coach wheels too, especially non-metal ones (not that I've used thoise for a very long time!

 

Stewart

[grahame]

S'funny, but I don't have a modelling budget as is so often mentioned on forums. I merely have an income, some of which is spent on essentials and bills and the remainder is unallocated. I may spend it on model railway stuff or perhaps down the local on a few beers or maybe a holiday. But wherever it is spent I don't rue or fret that I haven't got a new model train or had a night out down the pub.

 

However, we are funny, inconsistent and often irrational lot as modellers. Our choices and expenditure are easily swayed, such as that must have pretty loco that is inappropriate for the layout but will be a joy and pleasure to own. There are also those 'must have', but not yet available models. I don't have a special savings pot or budget waiting to spend on them but if RTR N gauge EPB and CIG emus were suddenly made available I would purchase them in double figure quatities without a quandary. Perhaps that's a sales opportunity lost to a manufacturer.

 

But it's not a calamity not to be able to purchase them; I've made and bashed a few to keep me happy. Very rarely do I find an interest in RTR models sufficient to purchase them. Is that another sales opportunity lost? There might even be a steady stream of new models being released but their suitability is patchy and spread thin - different scales, different eras, different genres and little joined up thinking in my view. Consequently that is probably another opportunity lost or missed.

 

G

[tomparryharry]

10 hours ago, 34theletterbetweenB&D said:

I do hope this inspires someone to build a layout based on ingenious recycling to provide practically everything on it. "Nnonspendi was famed as a tight fisted community, and the Grumblian Railway was content to place Cashles Halt a few miles distant, because there would never be the revenue to justify the significant civil engineering works required to place a station closer..."

 

That tends to take care of itself though, ambitions to go niche-niche are typically accompanied by recognition of the need for DIY?

 

I can see your point. I think I'm done with expensive RTR generic wagons. My 'green' credentials are fairly good, however. The wood for the shed has been 'in stock' since 1998. One of my mentors had a favourite saying; "I've got a job for that!".  His house extension was made from a goodly selection of bricks from BSC East Moors. Freebies are always a good bet, when the stakes are low, and the returns are high.....

 

Ian.

[YesTor]

On 26/06/2019 at 20:57, The Johnster said:

A friend who, prior to his retirement, was a lecturer in business studies at a local university, once told me that giving the customer what they want is the surest known way to bankruptcy, second only to cutting prices.  Marketing is about telling them exactly what they want and how much they are willing to pay for it, because otherwise they only have vague and ephemeral ideas.  I'm not saying I agree, but I can see what he's getting at...

 

Very true words.  As Henry Ford is supposedly quoted as saying, "If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said a faster horse.  The customer doesn't know what they want until you show them...". 

 

I have to say I totally agree.

[HonestTom]

21 hours ago, 34theletterbetweenB&D said:

I do hope this inspires someone to build a layout based on ingenious recycling to provide practically everything on it. "Nnonspendi was famed as a tight fisted community, and the Grumblian Railway was content to place Cashles Halt a few miles distant, because there would never be the revenue to justify the significant civil engineering works required to place a station closer..."

 

Chris Walas built a fantasy layout a few years back on which everything apart from the track and the rolling stock chassis was made of paper and card (even the figures were papier mache). You could do something similar with salvaged card and paper.

 

I'm currently working on a series of videos about modelling a scrapyard (appropriately) on the cheap making heavy use of junk and freebies - coffee stirrers for fences, junk mail cut up into metal offcuts, straws into pipes and the like.