HS2 under review

[melmerby]

45 minutes ago, Edwin_m said:

If I remember correctly the A66 itself has stolen quite a bit of the alignment too. 

 

Is traffic congestion much of a problem on the A66?  If not then an express coach service treated as part of the rail network with through ticketing, timetabling, Delay Repay etc would provide an adequate connection at far less cost than reinstating the railway.  The same is true of many other routes where rail re-openings are proposed - but conversely a network where buses feed into rail rather than competing would help many existing marginal railways and might itself provoke a few opening proposals in areas where there is too much traffic for buses to work reliably. 

 

HS2 connects the big cities in a way that road or air can't match, but it does need the heavy rail, tram and bus networks that feed into those city centre interchanges to be up to scratch. 

The A66 has not encroached on the railway at all between Penrith & Keswick, (it has very considerably between Keswick & Workington.) however some structures have been built over the trackbed, notably at Flusco & some agricultural buildings in various places. Some houses have been built on the site of Penruddock station yard with their back gardens on the trackbed.

All the obstructions could be moved/bypassed, the largest new work (before storm Desmond) would be replacing the gap in the trackbed at Beckces where the embankment and bridge have been totally removed (plus  a new bridge over the A66):

https://maps.nls.uk/geo/explore/side-by-side/#zoom=16&lat=54.6429&lon=-2.8997&layers=168&right=BingHyb

 

If you scroll the side to side map you can follow the route from Penrith to Keswick

Edited July 12, 2019 by melmerby

[Northmoor]

I suspect Penrith-Keswick is one of those routes that fall into the category of, "Should never have closed, but will never justify the cost of reopening".  From friends who regularly walk in the Lakes, what is noticeable is how a few locations have a disproportionate amount of the walkers.  One said about 90% of the people he saw in walking gear never seemed to get beyond the end of Ambleside's main street.  Another frequented the area around Keswick and Buttermere precisely because there were far fewer tourists there.

 

The problem is that for part of the year, too many people drive into the Lake District to walk instead of using public transport.  If you want to address that issue, electrification of the Windermere branch with an hourly service from perhaps Stockport and through Manchester (to maximise the potential interchange opportunities), would probably achieve multiple times the modal transfer at about 1/50th of the cost.

 

 

[melmerby]

5 minutes ago, Northmoor said:

I suspect Penrith-Keswick is one of those routes that fall into the category of, "Should never have closed, but will never justify the cost of reopening".  From friends who regularly walk in the Lakes, what is noticeable is how a few locations have a disproportionate amount of the walkers.  One said about 90% of the people he saw in walking gear never seemed to get beyond the end of Ambleside's main street.  Another frequented the area around Keswick and Buttermere precisely because there were far fewer tourists there.

 

The problem is that for part of the year, too many people drive into the Lake District to walk instead of using public transport.  If you want to address that issue, electrification of the Windermere branch with an hourly service from perhaps Stockport and through Manchester (to maximise the potential interchange opportunities), would probably achieve multiple times the modal transfer at about 1/50th of the cost.

 

 

Bowness is heavily over-visited with wall to wall tourists most times, Ambleside is a little less crowded, Keswick is pleasant most of the time.

Last week, the weather was fine and at no time was it unpleasantly busy.

Only Windermere town (for Bowness) still has it's main line railway, Keswick, Lakeside (on Windermere) & Coniston lost theirs.

Bus services courtesy of Stagecoach are expensive compared to busy conurbations and sometimes not particularly convenient or frequent.

 

My fantasy world would have a metre gauge electrified line (part tramway?) connecting at Windermere with NR then on to Waterhead, Ambleside, Grasmere, over Dunmail, past Thirlmere and into Keswick via St John's in the Vale.

[jamie92208]

I've just found the article in the latest Modern Railways that mentioned Keswick Penrith. Apparently  the Taxpayers alliance funded a competition to fi d the projects that should be done wjth HS2 money.

 

Jamie

[The Stationmaster]

1 hour ago, jamie92208 said:

I've just found the article in the latest Modern Railways that mentioned Keswick Penrith. Apparently  the Taxpayers alliance funded a competition to fi d the projects that should be done wjth HS2 money.

 

Jamie

I haven't seen MR yet but how did HS2 do in the competition or was it more a matter of loony tunes for daft reopenings?

 

Incidentally it's quite a while since I did the work on Keswick -Penrith and I long ago shredded teh complete plans for teh new route but it did include a substantial diversion from the orighinal route in one place involving a brand new stretch of railway plus some substantial bridgeworks.  Don't forget the aim of the scheme is not to just 'reopen' the rail link to Keswick from the Penrith end but also to create a route capable of handling quite high speeds in order to provide attractive journey times.  

 

From the various commercial assessment work I saw I think you could kick a traditional branchline style route into the long grass and forget about it.

[pete_mcfarlane]

10 hours ago, Northmoor said:

If you want to address that issue, electrification of the Windermere branch with an hourly service from perhaps Stockport and through Manchester (to maximise the potential interchange opportunities), would probably achieve multiple times the modal transfer at about 1/50th of the cost.

As ever, a lot of these campaigners are only interested in reopening closed lines, not improving the existing services or adding extra capacity. 

 

[melmerby]

2 hours ago, jamie92208 said:

I've just found the article in the latest Modern Railways that mentioned Keswick Penrith. Apparently  the Taxpayers alliance funded a competition to fi d the projects that should be done wjth HS2 money.

 

Jamie

A bunch of nobodies that try to make the facts fit their beliefs, mostly without much success.

[Richard E]

Interesting bit of news here from the Coventry area. The council are planning to build a couple of new stations on the existing network to take advantage of the capacity for local trains that will be released by HS2 taking over long distance services.

 

 https://coventryobserver.co.uk/news/revealed-new-station-plan-for-coventry-outskirts-new-homes-and-warwick-university-in-time-for-hs2/

[melmerby]

1 hour ago, Richard E said:

Interesting bit of news here from the Coventry area. The council are planning to build a couple of new stations on the existing network to take advantage of the capacity for local trains that will be released by HS2 taking over long distance services.

 

 https://coventryobserver.co.uk/news/revealed-new-station-plan-for-coventry-outskirts-new-homes-and-warwick-university-in-time-for-hs2/

I was expecting it to be West Midlands but it turns out to be Warwickshire!

 

BBC Midlands Today had a bit about the possibility of BJ (assuming he wins) cancelling HS2.

Midlands businesses are worried that the local economy could take a bit of a hit if this happens.

There was mention of (IIRC) 9000 people that are already emplotyed on it's construction.

 

The was some footage of Washwood Heath where the new HS2 depot will be built on the old Met-Cam site, showing work that has already started.

Edited July 19, 2019 by melmerby

[Mike Storey]

31 minutes ago, melmerby said:

BBC Midlands Today had a bit about the possibility of BJ (assuming he wins) cancelling HS2.

Midlands businesses are worried that the local economy could take a bit of a hit if this happens.

There was mention of (IIRC) 9000 people that are already emplotyed on it's construction.

 

The was some footage of the work at Washwood Heath were the new depot will be built on the old Met-Cam site where work has already started.

 

It may be controversial, but I'll say it anyway.

 

The StopHS2 people tend (note tend, not entirely) to belong to the NIMBY, will devalue our property/way of life/nature as somebody in the 18thC intended, folk who tend to make their money in the city/off daddy's inheritance/publishing/politics etc, living largely in the Home Counties / Chilterns, but who seem to claim the absolute truth about the economic and social potential for folk living further North. Funny how the folk living further North almost entirely disagree about that.

 

I wonder from whom Liz Truss takes her opinions? It is coloured in VFM (business case), but the business case has not changed recently (in fact the assumptions on which it was based, improved with the 2016 re-submission), so it can only be about potential, as yet unsubstantiated (unless you include all the beneficial extra local connectivity investment, most of which only improves the BC, but was not included) rises in cost. Nonetheless, I guess a decision is required (despite the fact that Stage 2b is now entering its final reading), so I just wonder what her alternative strategy will be? (Clue - she doesn't have one, apart from tax cuts, a la Boris, her new best friend).

 

We are seeing the end of industrial and transport strategy, not that we really ever had one. 

 

[Kelly]

2 hours ago, Richard E said:

Interesting bit of news here from the Coventry area. The council are planning to build a couple of new stations on the existing network to take advantage of the capacity for local trains that will be released by HS2 taking over long distance services.

 

 https://coventryobserver.co.uk/news/revealed-new-station-plan-for-coventry-outskirts-new-homes-and-warwick-university-in-time-for-hs2/

 

Much bigger scope than just the Coventry area as it is Warwickshire County Council who are organising it, so it actually won't touch Coventry itself much (UoW aside). The station plan for UoW would be a good one imo, the traffic around the Uni when it is kick out time is horrendous.

 

Nuneaton would gain two new stations in the plan too, as well as Rugby.

 

CCC would likely approve of it too as anything that has the potential to take more cars off the road will be gladly met by them, as they've recently been forced by the government to implement a Clean Air Zone (CAV), which some estimates say would have to include the entirity of Coventry itself to cover the major NO2 hotspots that are at or above the levels dictated. Better transport links would benefit that, at least one councillor has been calling for more subsidy for the buses to lower the ticket costs to make it more attractive a proposition. There are also plans for a tram-type system between UoW and the City Centre, but it is unknown if they'll ever come to anything yet.

[298]

1 hour ago, melmerby said:

 

 

BBC Midlands Today had a bit about the possibility of BJ (assuming he wins) cancelling HS2.

 

 

He's only trying to be a populist "Man of the people" until some civil servant politely taps him on the shoulder and reminds him of the national interest, just like his change of mind regarding lying down in front of a Bulldozer at Heathrow....

[298]

51 minutes ago, Kelly said:

 

Much bigger scope than just the Coventry area as it is Warwickshire County Council who are organising it, so it actually won't touch Coventry itself much (UoW aside). The station plan for UoW would be a good one imo, the traffic around the Uni when it is kick out time is horrendous.

 

Nuneaton would gain two new stations in the plan too, as well as Rugby.

 

CCC would likely approve of it too as anything that has the potential to take more cars off the road will be gladly met by them, as they've recently been forced by the government to implement a Clean Air Zone (CAV), which some estimates say would have to include the entirity of Coventry itself to cover the major NO2 hotspots that are at or above the levels dictated. Better transport links would benefit that, at least one councillor has been calling for more subsidy for the buses to lower the ticket costs to make it more attractive a proposition. There are also plans for a tram-type system between UoW and the City Centre, but it is unknown if they'll ever come to anything yet.

 

Reopening Coundon Road Station was one of the more sensible public suggestions to improve air quality on nearby roads. Using a dedicated train to serve the school there probably wasn't. I can't see how there is room for a car park in the area unless the Taxi factory site is cleared, as unfortunately the locals in other areas of the city have proved that they don't like walking to a station and there is never any space at Tile Hill because of this.

 

The latest tram concept is basically a tarted up bus with wheel covers on,  dreamt up by the snake oil salesmen at the Warwick manufacturing group.

[Bernard Lamb]

About a month ago I took some friends from the north on the Javelin service from Stratford to St Pancras.

They were amazed at how quickly you could get from the Olympic Park to the transport hub of Kings Cross, St Pancras and Euston.

It was also rather more comfortable than what they were used to.

Last weekend I went to Paris for Bastille Day and travelled by train.

Passing traffic on the motorway while going at more than twice the maximum speed of road traffic and on a smooth rolling train was also a good experience.

Take some, all? of the doubters for a day trip so that they can see just how far behind we are in the UK and just how good high speed train travel can be.

Cost? If you take the benefits over 50 years or more it is not worth considering as an important factor.

Better with Boris?

I have grave doubts. He is hardly a role model for joined up thinking.

Bernard

[adb968008]

In my opinion HS2 isnt the problem, it is a solution.

 

However Euston and Old Oak are problems.

 

the only useful purpose of Old Oak is a red light to queue trains into London, but as an interchange its pointless... no car, bus, tube even the canal misses it. Nearest Overground is suggested over 1/4 of a mile away.. people today wont even change at Shepherds bush and thats across the street.

 

Only the brave or the foolhardy will risk a flight connection to two changes of train connections dragging cases without a large safety buffer, which loses the benefit right there to the car or a connecting flight (reassured a  connection / responsibility of airline, plus no dragging baggage).

 

Euston is a missed opportunity...

 

Just as HS2 stock exits in the north on to normal infrastructure tracks, it could have done so on the southern end too...

 

if it was designed to use cross rail, HS2 could be going to Kent & Anglia as thru services stopping across the capital, the money saved could have funded a south bound spur towards clapham and the country could have benefitted from true long distance non-change services from the South East, Anglia to the North and South West.

 

instead we have a palace at Euston, a palace at Brum, and a nice line in between... that though makes a nice neat trainset to sell if the government were to privatise it in the future.

 

I dont see a use case for Londoners (most of whom dont livein London), as they still have lots of suitcase dragging connections across london, and if with kids will take a car.

Neither do i believe families from the South are going to move to Brum and commute at higher cost to London, when a zone 6 travelcard today breaks the finances of a London wage as it is.

 

The best use as is its a Pendolino replacement, so lets not pretend its going to generate new revenues, just because its going to save 15 mins on a trip to Brum.

Edited July 20, 2019 by adb968008

[ess1uk]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49048823

 

in the news again 

[62613]

45 minutes ago, ess1uk said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49048823

 

in the news again 

There will be people, a lot of them, I suppose, who don't how financing a major engineering project works, because most aren't involved in that sort of thing, especially nowadays. I have encountered some who seem to think the entire budget will be spent in a single financial year, rather than over the lifetime of the project, and cannot see that the costs are in fact quite low when compared to other parts of government spending, even with this latest supposed inflation.

Edited July 20, 2019 by 62613

[Northmoor]

7 minutes ago, 62613 said:

There will be people, a lot of them, I suppose, who don't how financing a major engineering project works, because most aren't involved in that sort of thing, especially nowadays. I have encountered some who seem to think the entire budget will be spent in a single financial year, rather than over the lifetime of the project, and cannot see that the costs are in fact quite low when compared to other parts of government spending, even with this latest supposed inflation.

Working on defence programmes for many years, we heard many of the same moans about the cost of the aircraft carriers - "Why are the American carriers so much cheaper, it's just rip-off Britain!" - when they weren't comparing like-with-like.  The US Military didn't do whole-life costing so all you saw was the up-front build cost, whereas the MoD had worked out how much our two carriers would cost to build, operate and dispose over the next 30 years, even factoring in cost of inflation etc.  They might have got it wrong but at least they tried; in America they are only now discovering how much things cost over their operating life, which is why the F-35 is thought to be the first $1Tn military programme in history.

[PhilH]

17 minutes ago, 62613 said:

There will be people, a lot of them, I suppose, who don't how financing a major engineering project works, because most aren't involved in that sort of thing, especially nowadays. I have encountered some who seem to think the entire budget will be spent in a single financial year, rather than over the lifetime of the project, and cannot see that the costs are in fact quite low when compared to other parts of government spending, even with this latest supposed inflation.

 

30/56 is a hell of an inflation figure...has someone been telling porkies about the real cost right from the start?

[John Tomlinson]

Yes, an increase of over 50% at an early stage in any project is a hell of a figure irrespective of the absolute numbers involved. The obvious point is that this itself may well not be the end of the increases above original budget, so who knows what the final figure on completion might be.

 

What would be interesting to know is the best current estimate of the benefits, which would at least give us an idea of how close or otherwise we are to the project being unviable.

 

Perhaps this will appear under the new regime, post Tuesday, in due course?

 

John.

[62613]

34 minutes ago, PhilH said:

 

30/56 is a hell of an inflation figure...has someone been telling porkies about the real cost right from the start?

What I was trying to say is that I know some people who think that all the money will be spent in a single financial year.  I'd agree with you that that is a massive inflation; but wasn't the word 'may' used in connection with it. I would assume that with robust cost control, costs can be kept down

 

I think I can remember saying, a few pages back; what will those who would like to make major investments in UK plc, especially after a certain event happens, make of a country that has so little confidence in itself to bring major infrastructure projects, whether publicly or privately, to  completion?

[ess1uk]

 

MPs backed the High Speed Rail (West Midlands to Crewe) Bill in the House of Commons by 263 votes in favour to 17 against.

who voted against?

[62613]

10 minutes ago, John Tomlinson said:

What would be interesting to know is the best current estimate of the benefits, which would at least give us an idea of how close or otherwise we are to the project being unviable.

 

Perhaps this will appear under the new regime, post Tuesday, in due course?

 

John.

Are you talking about short-term or long-term benefits? Short-term, I suppose the benefits include employing people to plan, oversee and execute the works, rather than paying them Universal Credit. Another might be releasing money into the economy which otherwise mightn't (probably wouldn't!) be. Long-term? It's an infrastucture improvement, which the UK as a country desperately needs. There's the increase in capacity in the railway system, which we're also told we desperately need. Most of the existing railway system has been in existence now for at least 120 years. The original cost estimates, for most, if not all the major trunk rail routes came in way over budget (in the case of the Great Northern, double); should they have not been built?

 

Edited July 20, 2019 by 62613

[PhilH]

42 minutes ago, 62613 said:

What I was trying to say is that I know some people who think that all the money will be spent in a single financial year.  I'd agree with you that that is a massive inflation; but wasn't the word 'may' used in connection with it. I would assume that with robust cost control, costs can be kept down

 

I think I can remember saying, a few pages back; what will those who would like to make major investments in UK plc, especially after a certain event happens, make of a country that has so little confidence in itself to bring major infrastructure projects, whether publicly or privately, to  completion?

 

Certainly the word 'may' was used in connection with the supposed inflation figure, but as it came from the chairman of the project surely it's an 'informed may'?

[The Stationmaster]

1 hour ago, PhilH said:

 

30/56 is a hell of an inflation figure...has someone been telling porkies about the real cost right from the start?

What we don't know is if they are comparing the same scope of works,.  For example in the London suburbs the contractors are only now thinking about how to deal with spoil from one lot of works which suggests their costs and the contract costs could change - although that obviously begs the question about what was originally estimated and costed as the method of dealing with that spoil.

 

A lot of HS 2 could be de-specced to reduce costs, especially the massive amount which is going to be spent on NIMBY inspired tunnelling.  I don't know anything about the chosen gradient profiles but there might be scope there for de-speccing as well and of course the train build costs are presumably only now becoming apparent from the bids and how they have been impacted by inflation.  What we also don't know - critically - was the tolerance built in to original estimates and how it was presented nor do we know what was allowed for inflation and how that compares with actual inflation rates in the civil engineering industry.

 

As ever on their own numbers are more or less meaningless except to journos seeking headlines and politicians spluttering nonsense and those who take them purely as numbers but don't look behind them.  And when we have candidate for party leader/Prime Minister who can't even get the facts right about postal packaging for kippers (from somewhere which isn't even in the UK) I do seriously wonder how the politicos manage when confronted by large projects such as HS2 and Crossrail?