HS2 under review

[lmsforever]

1 hour ago, black and decker boy said:

.So 

So if we rule out HS2, our growing population and it’s expectations of easy mobility, we end up needing new motorways.

 

do we think the good people of Aylesbury vale or Warwickshire will appreciate a new 6 land motorway being ploughed through heir back yard? Do we think the people who enjoy the Peak District will want a new 6 land motorway.

 

i can tell you the LMSForever and his band are already mobilising against the Oxford to Cambridge expressway, a much needed East West link in the northern Home Counties.

 

remember Newbury bypass? Can you imagine the depth of protest against any proposals for major road building, in the north or south?

 

Doing nothing isn’t an option. For once we have a plan to add low carbon mobility to the economy.

There is a threat of a six lane motorway to the north of Bucks aka Oxford Cambridge road and million homes  plus a drastically descoped railway.One of the routes is just north of Winslow not a happy prospect, surely the railway should have been wired ,but government takes strange ways.The roads dept seem to have no control applied by Westminster in this case they have just bulldozed this scheme onto a thoroughly anti community and in the light of calls for no more cars this will become a weed strewn dinosaur.

[Rugd1022]

16 hours ago, Andrea506 said:

You call my views "rubbish", well I call you rude! I still believe with all my heart that HS2 is a total waste of money, typical white elephant!

 

Andrea, unless you missed it please go back and read my post about the capacity issue, it is not a waste of money whatever you believe with all your heart. The existing mainlines can only be upgraded to a point, you cannot physically run more trains than the laws of physics / braking from high speed / pathing / signalling systems / speed differentials allow. If you want faster trains you need bigger gaps between them which means less trains per hour, if you want more frequent trains you have to slow them down to get in as many per hour as possible. This is why it is an issue of capacity over and above anything else. HS2 will allow better local services and freight running on the existing WCML. Freight customers are demanding longer and heavier trains with each year that passes, which means bigger margins are required between trains to allow them enough stopping distance with the extra weight involved. It's vital that we keep as much bulk freight off the roads as possible but this seems to go over people's heads for some reason.

[phil-b259]

22 minutes ago, lmsforever said:

There is a threat of a six lane motorway to the north of Bucks aka Oxford Cambridge road and million homes  plus a drastically descoped railway.One of the routes is just north of Winslow not a happy prospect, surely the railway should have been wired ,but government takes strange ways.The roads dept seem to have no control applied by Westminster in this case they have just bulldozed this scheme onto a thoroughly anti community and in the light of calls for no more cars this will become a weed strewn dinosaur.

 

Despite all the hype by environmentalists - and the recent comments by the UK select committee, there is zero chance that cars will be banned!

 

Yes they may go all electric, and yes certain other interventions may limit numbers, but given public attachment to the concept of private motoring - which tends to rank just as highly as home ownership in the mindset of the middle class (whose needs dominate political thinking and party policy these days) cars are here to stay.

 

Of course what having less cars may allow is the scope of the Oxford - Cambridge expressway to be reduced in scope thus having less of an impact o the communities and environment is passes through. For example going foe D2 rather than D3 (or maybe even single carriageway in parts, flat junctions rather than grade separation would all reduce land take. Other measures like sorting out some of the bottlenecks on current routes (e.g. the at junctions on the A43 and lack of free flow on / off the M40 at junc 10 could also help concentrate the cars which do remain to use existing corridors.

 

However as will all things transport related, a reduction in demand can only come through fairly radical change in the heart of Westminster - including some pretty hostile policies as far as the electorate / business are concerned. Until that happens the lack of capacity on many routes - and across all modes, will continue to require new infrastructure to cope with demand.

 

 

Edited August 24, 2019 by phil-b259

[pete_mcfarlane]

1 hour ago, The Stationmaster said:

Doesn't work.  My son uses Skype frequently to talk to business colleagues in various parts of Europe but that has not stopped the need for him to attend face-to-face meetings.  

 

I'd reckon that business travel might actually *increase* because of things like video conferencing, as it's easier to have geographically distributed teams, which then leads to people needing to travel. This has certainly happened with my employers.

 

1 hour ago, The Stationmaster said:

Presumably either somebody thinks the French version of Ohm's Law will not apply on HS2 or perhaps they consider the technology advances beyond the TGV and Germany's various marks of ICE will allow much faster running for the same amount of power input.  

 

I think there is a tendency in some political circles to look at Moore's law (the one that effectively says that computer power doubles every 18 months) and assume that similar improvements will happen with other technologies. Witness the subsidising of solar panels in the hope the technology behind them improves. 

[mdvle]

50 minutes ago, pete_mcfarlane said:

I think there is a tendency in some political circles to look at Moore's Law (the one that effectively says that computer power doubles every 18 months) and assume that similar improvements will happen with other technologies.

 

Moore's Law was that the number of transistors in an integrated circuit doubles every 2 years, an observation made back in 1965.  The doubling every 18 months was an observation by an Intel executive, which combined that added transistors with the fact they were often faster.

 

Regardless, it would be nice if those hoping for it elsewhere would look at what is happening in semiconductors.  After a very respectable 40+ year run Moore's Law is dead, a combination of coming close to reaching the physical limits of shrinking size combined with the every increasing costs of attempting to get to the next stage.

 

50 minutes ago, pete_mcfarlane said:

Witness the subsidizing of solar panels in the hope the technology behind them improves. 

 

An NPR podcast recently covered solar panels, and thanks to a variety of factors including massive investments by China and subsidies that help create a mass market, solar panel costs have dropped dramatically (and even developments in how to assemble them on site have helped drive costs down - it used to take 2 days to install a large household installation which now takes 1/2 a day).

[Tricky-CRS]

17 hours ago, Andrea506 said:

Well I did put "the cat among the pidgeons" didn't I. I still say it isn't needed, not wanted and a colossal waste of money! Has it occured to anyone that with the advance of technology in 20 years time face to face business meetings will be a thing of the past? We already have Skype. Office accommodation in London is hideously expensive, far more people will work from home. I call it "Camerons Folly". If a high speed railway is so necessary put it in the middle of the M1 and remove the outside lane, after all we won't want cars when we can use a fancy train! 

 

How do you work out it is unwanted, I and many thousands of others less vocal want it. The cost as stated spread out over the build time is a drop in the ocean of government spend. Cancellation will not put money elsewhere but be used for tax cuts for the rich. If we are heading in to a recession then cancelling this is a very bad idea, as it will help with employment during slowdown, boost economy. During a recession is exactly the time the government should invest in infrastructure and alike to stimulate the economy, may be as good or better than quantitative easing.

[mdvle]

1 hour ago, phil-b259 said:

 

Despite all the hype by environmentalists - and the recent comments by the UK select committee, there is zero chance that cars will be banned!

 

 

Exactly, the public has spoken - witness what created the yellow vest protests in France.

 

The public has decided they would rather deal with the consequences of climate change instead of taking the steps required to try and minimize it, and that is in a large part because people aren't willing to give up their cars.

[PhilH]

2 hours ago, royaloak said:

Why remove the 'leisure travellers and those for whom time is not important' from the equation?

They are just as likely to use it as everyone else, or is it simply a way to make your invalid point valid?

 

The whole point which you and your lot are deliberately ignoring is that HS2 is about capacity for passenger AND FREIGHT which is lacking at the bottom end of the WCML (there isnt much spare in the middle either), by building HS2 and putting all the non stop (fast) trains on there means the WCML will have the capacity for the slower stopping passenger trains and the even slower freight trains, why cant people get that!

 

Which point is that? I live about as far south as you can get without getting my feet wet, will in all probability be pushing up daisies before this thing is built so could not care less whether it gets built or not...as long as I don't have to pay for it.

 

The leisure etc. quote was taken from another post by a staunch supporter of the project and, as intimated above, I certainly do not have a 'my lot' when it comes to this. I asked a question, and do not expect have that branded as invalid...what makes you the arbiter of validity anyway.

 

Get your facts right before you slate others.

 

 

[Phil Parker]

4 minutes ago, Tricky-CRS said:

If we are heading in to a recession then cancelling this is a very bad idea, as it will help with employment during slowdown, boost economy.

 

Since there are two HS2 training colleges, aside from boosting the economy, the project will turn out many people with very useful skills for the future of the UK. Maybe I'm missing something, but I think MORE engineering types are A Good Thing. Unless we just want to sell each other imported coffee and pizza. 

 

3 minutes ago, mdvle said:

The public has decided they would rather deal with the consequences of climate change instead of taking the steps required to try and minimize it, and that is in a large part because people aren't willing to give up their cars.

 

 

I think you mean "The public has decided they would rather pretend there are no consequences of climate change". 40,000 people suffer life-limited effects from pollution each year, but I doubt anyone wearing a  yellow jacket thinks that they will be one of them. In this respect, I don't envy politicians. Once you start feeling poorly, Something MUST be done, but that something isn't popular or palatable for most people. We want to have cake AND eat it. 

 

In many respects, even if you don't like HS2, some of the realistic and practical options might look a lot worse.

[brack]

4 hours ago, APOLLO said:

I think it will go ahead at least to Birmingham & Crewe, perhaps pared closer to the bone. We will see.

 

Brit15

Sadly I suspect stopping at old oak common is more likely. Building from the euston end of course...

[black and decker boy]

38 minutes ago, PhilH said:

 

Which point is that? I live about as far south as you can get without getting my feet wet, will in all probability be pushing up daisies before this thing is built so could not care less whether it gets built or not...as long as I don't have to pay for it.

I don’t use state education or main health services. I still have to pay via my taxes.

 

i don’t visit or live in Scotland. I still have to pay via my taxes.

 

i wouldn't qualify for universal credit. I still have to pay via my taxes.

 

its called the common good. It’s what our elected governments are supposed to be supporting and creating.

Edited August 24, 2019 by black and decker boy
Emphasis

[phil-b259]

1 hour ago, PhilH said:

 

Which point is that? I live about as far south as you can get without getting my feet wet, will in all probability be pushing up daisies before this thing is built so could not care less whether it gets built or not...as long as I don't have to pay for it.

 

The leisure etc. quote was taken from another post by a staunch supporter of the project and, as intimated above, I certainly do not have a 'my lot' when it comes to this. I asked a question, and do not expect have that branded as invalid...what makes you the arbiter of validity anyway.

 

Get your facts right before you slate others.

 

 

 

As I said earlier it’s important to not judge HS2 simply using a single service grouping - because Phil H does raise a valid point that for passengers north of Wigan ONLY, the benifits from HS2 are tiny.

 

As such his comments do serve respect.

 

If we are to overcome the naysayers, it is important to not dismiss valid comments.

 

In this instance what he appeared to overlook is that the benifits of HS2 are much grater for those traveling south of Wigan and consequently the project as a whole is a viable one (the debate over the maximum line speed being the exception).

 

Edited August 24, 2019 by phil-b259

[AY Mod]

3 hours ago, Rugd1022 said:

HS2 will allow better local services and freight running on the existing WCML

 

I thought I'd have a look at freight.

 

https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/busiest-stations-for-freight-statistics.97568/

 

OK it isn't definitive and it's 5 years ago but I don't suppose the balance has changed much. Aside from Barnetby (would that still be top with less imported coal?) the WCML and combined routes seems to figure highly. 

[Rugd1022]

Thanks Andy - interesting stuff. I haven't been on that forum for a while since I was rebuked for knowing a bit about actually working on the railway, some parts of it can be a little childish at times!

 

One thing is for sure - at our little depot on the WCML we're getting busier and busier, our route cards are expanding all the time with more and more jobs being squeezed into the diagrams to get stuff from A to B and back again.

 

Edited to add : routing of certain freights can be a nightmare at times due to drivers hours and route knowledge, some of our jobs come from the north via the Midland Mainline as far as Bedford, cut across the branch to Bletchley and continue on down the WCML to London and beyond, and the returning empties are often routed a different way too.

Edited August 24, 2019 by Rugd1022

[4630]

I doubt Barnetby would be quite as high now.

 

Although there is still the iron ore traffic for Scunthorpe, the vast majority of the coal traffic, which did tend to have a seasonal element in any case, has been replaced by biomass.  With the closure of Eggborough and Ferrybridge Power Stations over the last couple of years that only leaves Drax Power Station in the Aire Valley which takes some coal but mostly biomass.  Drax gets its biomass via several UK ports but the majority comes in through Liverpool and is sent by rail over the Pennines and won't go through Barnetby.

Edited August 24, 2019 by 4630

[Davexoc]

9 hours ago, lmsforever said:

There is a threat of a six lane motorway to the north of Bucks aka Oxford Cambridge road and million homes  plus a drastically descoped railway.One of the routes is just north of Winslow not a happy prospect, surely the railway should have been wired ,but government takes strange ways.The roads dept seem to have no control applied by Westminster in this case they have just bulldozed this scheme onto a thoroughly anti community and in the light of calls for no more cars this will become a weed strewn dinosaur.

We're not all anti, the sooner they build an east to west route to avoid the hell hole that is Aylesbury, the better.

The Arla dairy didn't help by giving AVDC loads of money to install even more traffic lights.

I would be more worried about the demands on the water and sewerage network than the roads with all the houses going up, but hey ho, Wycombe is richer and has brushed aside it's housing quota onto Aylesbury......

[black and decker boy]

36 minutes ago, Davexoc said:

We're not all anti, the sooner they build an east to west route to avoid the hell hole that is Aylesbury, the better.

The Arla dairy didn't help by giving AVDC loads of money to install even more traffic lights.

I would be more worried about the demands on the water and sewerage network than the roads with all the houses going up, but hey ho, Wycombe is richer and has brushed aside it's housing quota onto Aylesbury......

Well from next year there is no county, CDC, AVDC or WDC, just Bucks Unitary Authority.

 

i live in WDC and the only bit thats not protected green belt (AONB). We are getting nigh on 3000 new homes. We also get a relief road (phases over 10 years). Aylesbury Garden Town probably equates to 10,000 houses and an orbital road around Aylesbury (also phased over 10 years).

 

rest assured, all boroughs across the country face the same. I deliver the relief roads as a civil engineer.

 

we can’t just rely on relief roads (it’s a fallacy quite often as it relieves nothing meaningful just introduces a new route). Trains, stations and other public transport are key. For us, east west rail adds to the opportunities just as the Chiltern service to Oxford has. HS2 misses us out but still offers faster services to the north than either XC via Banbury or WC via Euston (my normal choice).

[rockershovel]

Interesting point about the HS2 training establishments? Does that mean that the railway is starting to address the enormous self-harm resulting from the casualisation of employment in the 90s?

 

I looked at returning to railway work in the early 2000s but found the tangled web of agencies and self-funded, agency-controlled training to be just too difficult,  and went elsewhere. 

 

Edited August 25, 2019 by rockershovel

[Andrea506]

On 23/08/2019 at 21:30, melmerby said:

But with no evidence to back up your views, just a heartfelt feeling. (Oh and a flippant remark about putting it down the M1), hence my curt response.

Come up with some genuine arguments/suggestions and you will be taken seriously, so far you come across as one of the "nays" that will argue the whole thing around in a circle, without coming forward with any serious alternatives.

And what is wrong with using the M1 route? Remove the 2 outside lanes and you have room. Not perfect but better than the current proposals, cheaper too.

[jjb1970]

2 minutes ago, Andrea506 said:

And what is wrong with using the M1 route? Remove the 2 outside lanes and you have room. Not perfect but better than the current proposals, cheaper too.

 

Either you are enjoying a joke or you don't know much about construction. 

[Andrea506]

23 hours ago, John Tomlinson said:

Andrea, I for one think you're onto something in terms of travel, and the pressing need to reduce it.

 

My own experience in a global business trying to control people flying round the world - in vain as it turned out - was that much of it is not of necessity, but rather all or any of;

 

A few days away from the office - perhaps less helpful now with mobiles, my experience was in the '90's

 

A few days away from the spouse and kids, possibly even with someone else's spouse

 

The trip scheduled to give them a free or low cost weekend somewhere nice

 

The ability it gave them or their spouse to brag to their chums about flying in the front of the plane, and staying in expensive hotels

 

The general kudos of being a global business person.

 

What we do need to accept is that we in general need to travel less, also consume and waste less. Business and personal activity needs to adopt to this, pronto, if it doesn't the nutters referred to by Ravenser and others might just in the end triumph and take us back to the Dark Ages.

 

John.

 

 

Well said, common sense at last.

[Andrea506]

In this mornings Mail on line I read that HS2 is now being probed by the Serious Fraud Office, well well, I always suspected it was just a "gravy train" for the rich and powerful. Improving the links between Northern cities like Leeds and Manchester etc would be a much better thing to do.

[black and decker boy]

4 minutes ago, Andrea506 said:

In this mornings Mail on line I read that HS2 is now being probed by the Serious Fraud Office, well well, I always suspected it was just a "gravy train" for the rich and powerful. Improving the links between Northern cities like Leeds and Manchester etc would be a much better thing to do.

And what would your argument (and that of LMSForever) be to those in the densely populated areas between the Pennines and Manchester and Leeds who oppose the CPO of their houses / villages and see it as a vanity white elephant project that offers them no benefits as it has no local station?

 

Thats on the vague assumption that HS3, as a stand-alone project with no HS2 infrastructure to share, can even generate a positive BCR and secure government funding. Given HS3 isn’t even at option selection and initial public consultation yet, let alone hybrid Bill through Parliament then any prospective opening date is going to be well past 2035. It typically takes 10 years from project launch to start of construction.

[Andrea506]

Just now, black and decker boy said:

And what would your argument (and that of LMSForever) be to those in the densely populated areas between the Pennines and Manchester and Leeds who oppose the CPO of their houses / villages and see it as a vanity white elephant project that offers them no benefits as it has no local station?

 

Thats on the vague assumption that HS3, as a stand-alone project with no HS2 infrastructure to share, can even generate a positive BCR and secure government funding. Given HS3 isn’t even at option selection and initial public consultation yet, let alone hybrid Bill through Parliament then any prospective opening date is going to be well past 2035. It typically takes 10 years from project launch to start of construction.

I'm not talking about so called HS3. Just improving existing lines by putting up overhead wires, easing curves, new trains, silly things like improving the quality of the service.

[The Great Bear]

21 hours ago, lmsforever said:

There is a threat of a six lane motorway to the north of Bucks aka Oxford Cambridge road and million homes  plus a drastically descoped railway.One of the routes is just north of Winslow not a happy prospect, surely the railway should have been wired ,but government takes strange ways.The roads dept seem to have no control applied by Westminster in this case they have just bulldozed this scheme onto a thoroughly anti community and in the light of calls for no more cars this will become a weed strewn dinosaur.

 

All Highways England (the "roads department") projects over £500m (which doesn't get you much nowadays in terms of new road construction), have to go through DfTs Business Investment and Commerical Committee for authorisation to proceed. On a scheme costing way more than that, like the Oxford to Cambridge expressway, DfT will be taking a very close interest a lot of politics at play too. Sure like the railways, DfT keep in the background, so others can take the blame, but to say the government has no control isn't true.