HS2 under review

[phil-b259]

19 minutes ago, Andrea506 said:

In this mornings Mail on line I read that HS2 is now being probed by the Serious Fraud Office, well well, I always suspected it was just a "gravy train" for the rich and powerful. Improving the links between Northern cities like Leeds and Manchester etc would be a much better thing to do.

 

What part of "the southern section of the WCML has run out of capacity" do you not understand!

 

This is not speculation - there is reams of expert analysis which will prove the case - in addition to which several RMweb members have come forward with personal examples of how the lack of capacity is impacting current operations.

 

Betters rail links across the Pennines are indeed needed but they do nothing to solve the problem HS2 is designed to solve.

 

Even if there are issues with how HS2 is being run (and given the Daily Mail groups long history of presenting LIES, half truths and speculation as fact to pander to their right wing readership, I doubt there is anything substantive to the allegations), it does NOTHING to change the basic FACT that HS2 (or something very much like it) is essential to providing the big step change in WCML capacity the country needs.

 

I repeat, if you have an alternative idea as to how significant extra capacity can be provided between London and Rugby then lets hear it - all serious proposals will be respectfully considered.

 

The failure to do so - and rely on 'feelings' - or press headlines (particularly from the tabloid press - of which the Mail is definitely part despite all their pretence at serious journalism) means you will not be taken seriously and invite hostile responses pointing out your flawed thinking.

 

 

Edited August 25, 2019 by phil-b259

[locoholic]

13 minutes ago, phil-b259 said:

 

What part of "the southern section of the WCML has run out of capacity" do you not understand!

 

 

What part of "So what" don't you understand? Rail travel is a minority activity. Travel on the WCML even more so. Doing nothing really IS an option!

 

The UK has a major housing crisis, and is on the verge of a major electricity supply crisis, and yet many millions of extra people expect to make their homes in the UK every decade. There are many, many more pressing issues to address, and that's without addressing the current political, economic and environmental issues.

[AY Mod]

48 minutes ago, Andrea506 said:

Not perfect but better than the current proposals,

 

I don't think you've really looked at curvature and gradients e.g. Luton J9-10. Keele Bank? 

 

Wholly fantasy. 

[AY Mod]

13 minutes ago, locoholic said:

What part of "So what" don't you understand? Rail travel is a minority activity. 

 

Now I know you are just trolling. You didn't respond to my earlier challenges, just marked it funny, so I'll just remove access to the topic and leave it for more intelligent discussion. 

[John Tomlinson]

53 minutes ago, Andrea506 said:

In this mornings Mail on line I read that HS2 is now being probed by the Serious Fraud Office, well well, I always suspected it was just a "gravy train" for the rich and powerful. Improving the links between Northern cities like Leeds and Manchester etc would be a much better thing to do.

Interesting if this is true, as it would signal an escalation in concerns.

 

Weaknesses in controls on the project with potential for fraud are actually nothing new, a trip through Google under "HS2 fraud" will yield references to concerns by the Public Accounts Select Commitee following NAO report on same in 2017.

 

John.

[Clearwater]

13 minutes ago, locoholic said:

What part of "So what" don't you understand? Rail travel is a minority activity. Travel on the WCML even more so. Doing nothing really IS an option!

 

The UK has a major housing crisis, and is on the verge of a major electricity supply crisis, and yet many millions of extra people expect to make their homes in the UK every decade. There are many, many more pressing issues to address, and that's without addressing the current political, economic and environmental issues.

 

So not building a railway line which would:

a) help the millions of extra people travel without congestion

b) help stimulate economic demand both during the construction phase and long-term to give them jobs and help pay for electricity upgrades 

c) help remove lorries from the road to reduce environmental concerns

is a bad thing?  I’m not sure I follow your argument.

[Fenman]

On 24/08/2019 at 10:57, John Tomlinson said:

...

My own experience in a global business trying to control people flying round the world - in vain as it turned out - was that much of it is not of necessity, but rather all or any of;

 

A few days away from the office - perhaps less helpful now with mobiles, my experience was in the '90's

 

A few days away from the spouse and kids, possibly even with someone else's spouse

 

The trip scheduled to give them a free or low cost weekend somewhere nice

 

The ability it gave them or their spouse to brag to their chums about flying in the front of the plane, and staying in expensive hotels

 

The general kudos of being a global business person.

...

 

Ah, but your personal experience from several decades ago (in an organisation that sounds like it was grotesquely mis-managed) does not necessarily extrapolate to represent the entire market today.

 

My experience in a global business is that people do everything possible to minimise their international travel (even to the extent that I am having to actively persuade people to take trips that you would presumably consider some sort of glamorous holiday). My own travel schedule in the next 12 months involves more than 100,000 miles of flights. They'll be carbon-offset, but it's the minimum I can get away with and still have a functioning business. Presumably you're now going to accuse me of just trying to get away from my family, or of traveling somewhere nice on someone else's money, or seeking "kudos" (whatever that is).

 

Paul

 

 

 

 

[The Stationmaster]

18 hours ago, AY Mod said:

 

I thought I'd have a look at freight.

 

https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/busiest-stations-for-freight-statistics.97568/

 

OK it isn't definitive and it's 5 years ago but I don't suppose the balance has changed much. Aside from Barnetby (would that still be top with less imported coal?) the WCML and combined routes seems to figure highly. 

GWML between Reading and Acton is currently 70 freight paths on an average weekday - some are multiple Y paths and as ever in the freight world some will no doubt be cancelled by Notice and there will be additional STP trains which don't appear in the base count as they vary weekly or even daily.

 

38 minutes ago, Andrea506 said:

I'm not talking about so called HS3. Just improving existing lines by putting up overhead wires, easing curves, new trains, silly things like improving the quality of the service.

Do you seriously think that if HS2 is cancelled, or even reduced in scope, any money saved (which in reality would be a saving on budgetted expenditure and not necessarily a saving of real money) would go to NR for spending elsewhere?  Simple answer is no way would that happen - all NR spending and investment has to be considered as individual schemes and judged and financed accordingly (probably with less flexibility than BR had to move money between schemes).  Money or in reality budgetted expenditure saved by cutting back or abandoning HS 2 will simply go back into The Treasury's pot and be spent on something else (currently the NHS and 'Law & order' are no doubt priorities as they figure high in opinion polls) or more likely if The Treasury have their way it will not be reallocated to anything and planned state borrowing will be reduced as will NR's borrowings.

 

An interesting question too (for another thread really)  is just where, or how, any budgetted expenditure on HS 2 would, or could, be spent at the same annual rate over the same timescale as it was budgetted to be spent on HS2.  I bet NR would as like as not go for increasing the pace of 'digital railway' development and implementation as it is claimed to produce significant savings.  And I do Govt would trust them to spend any money on electrification after the recent debacles on the GWML etc.

[John Tomlinson]

1 minute ago, Fenman said:

 

Ah, but your personal experience from several decades ago (in an organisation that sounds like it was grotesquely mis-managed) does not necessarily extrapolate to represent the entire market today.

 

My experience in a global business is that people do everything possible to minimise their international travel (even to the extent that I am having to actively persuade people to take trips that you would presumably consider some sort of glamorous holiday). My own travel schedule in the next 12 months involves more than 100,000 miles of flights. They'll be carbon-offset, but it's the minimum I can get away with and still have a functioning business. Presumably you're now going to accuse me of just trying to get away from my family, or of traveling somewhere nice on someone else's money, or seeking "kudos" (whatever that is).

 

Paul

 

 

 

 

I'm not about to accuse you of anything, as I don't have the detailed facts on your specific case to form a judgement - nor would it be any of my business.

 

As it happens, the business I worked for was highly profitable, which might have been part of the problem, and was also part of a much larger global conglomerate, also profitable, whose general ethos was if anything more extravagent than ours.

 

As I say, your personal circumstances are none of my business, but on the guess that you aren't CEO of a global conglomerate (and if you are my apologies), I'd suggest that practises in some of these organisations are still eye-wateringly indulgent, and would be strikingly so to someone directly running their own business hands on.

 

John.

[phil-b259]

2 minutes ago, locoholic said:

What part of "So what" don't you understand? Rail travel is a minority activity. Travel on the WCML even more so. Doing nothing really IS an option!

 

The UK has a major housing crisis, and is on the verge of a major electricity supply crisis, and yet many millions of extra people expect to make their homes in the UK every decade. There are many, many more pressing issues to address, and that's without addressing the current political, economic and environmental issues.

 

A big part of the 'energy crisis' is the same reason as the WCML capacity criss - namely there has not been sufficient investment in the national grid!

 

Just consider at how many electrical powered consumer devices have come about in the last 2 decades - and with calls for electrically powered cars to become the norm this will only become worse. At the same time the UK Government has decided to radically alter the picture as far as generating it goes - the loss of fosiel fuelled power plants (which produce a steady supply) in favour of renewables (whose output is unpredictable and means much closer attention has to be paid by the Grid controllers to maintain a stable 50Hz frequency.

 

However unlike rail transport the electricity industry has been fully privatised ! - as such it is up to the private companies who own it to stump  he cash to fix it - the fact that HM Government have been complicit it letting the energy companies dodge their responsibilities doesn't mean the taxpayer should pic up the tab. Of course were the electricity companies nationalised again like Mr Corbyn advocates then things would be different.

 

Similarly the 'housing crisis is because the UK has not been building enough houses to cope with population growth or to replace substandard housing from previous decades, this is particularly accurate in the South East of the country where the lack of heavy industry means a lack of 'brownfield sites to redevelop. A solution to this is long distance commuting - putting the houses where space is less at a premium - but that requires more travel and more transport infrastructure. Its also the case that hosing has been seen as the prerogative of the private sector by HM Government  - and as with the electricity industry this limits the room for manoeuvrer by Government.

 

While there is a valid argument to be had about population growth in the UK, and the way the economy is biased towards the South East of the country, neither is going to miraculously cured by axing HS2! Intervention to correct these issues requires a radical overhaul of tax policies over many years - as current trends will no change overnight (sustained tax increases on tobacco products hasn't stopped everyone smoking has it?). In the meantime investment in rail capacity to relive one of the most congested railways in the country is essential.

 

 

 

 

,

 

[phil-b259]

2 minutes ago, John Tomlinson said:

 I'd suggest that practises in some of these organisations are still eye-wateringly indulgent, and would be strikingly so to someone directly running their own business hands on.

 

 

They might be but private sector business is just that - private. If large entities believe that face to face meetings are essential and wish to waste shareholders cash on them, thats their prerogative.

[Bernard Lamb]

15 minutes ago, locoholic said:

What part of "So what" don't you understand? Rail travel is a minority activity. Travel on the WCML even more so. Doing nothing really IS an option!

 

The UK has a major housing crisis, and is on the verge of a major electricity supply crisis, and yet many millions of extra people expect to make their homes in the UK every decade. There are many, many more pressing issues to address, and that's without addressing the current political, economic and environmental issues.

May I invite you to join me and a group of friends one day this week?

The leader of the group is a regular traveller on the line, as am I.

We are going to a rather unusual destination and not going via Euston. He has had to give out details of the travel arrangements including an alternative and then an alternative alternative. The situation is really that bad. The last two times I have made the journey I have had to adopt the first alternative and even then finish my journey by service bus on one occasion. The last time the leader did the trip he had to adopt the second option. That option relies on the TOCs accepting tickets for a deviation of the route. Usually arrangements are put in place fairly quickly but if they are not inexperienced travellers are not going to be able to cope. That is the reality of the situation today, how bad it will become in 5-6 years before we get any relief I know not. That is before we start to talk about overcrowding and the effect of building more house. Yes, it is only a small number of people who use the local trains. However many of them moved to the area because there was a reliable train service to London.

Doing nothing is not an option. Selfish? Of course, but there are benefits for a vast number of people, even for many who are never going to use any sort of train. Think of HS2 as a national asset rather than as a train service for a few.

Bernard

[jjb1970]

As someone who does quite a lot of flying for work purposes I can say that I try and minimise it as much possible. Sure, some places I fly to I thoroughly enjoy but for the most part it's a chore I could do without. Unfortunately my paymasters expect face to face meetings and regardless of how much I use Skype there is still a need to meet physically. I will be visiting Seoul in September and Tokyo in October, both great places but the repeated trips to Brussels, Copenhagen, Oslo and even Antwerp and Hamburg (two cities I love) lost their allure a long time ago. 

[phil-b259]

21 minutes ago, John Tomlinson said:

Interesting if this is true, as it would signal an escalation in concerns.

 

Weaknesses in controls on the project with potential for fraud are actually nothing new, a trip through Google under "HS2 fraud" will yield references to concerns by the Public Accounts Select Commitee following NAO report on same in 2017.

 

John.

 

However HS2 is not alone in the potential for fraud!

 

ITS incredibly frustrating when the media (and those hostile) try and make out such things are unique to HS2 - where as there are no doubt MANY cases of fraud to be found in in big projects (both Government and Private I hasten to add) over the decades.

 

HS2 as in the actual railway (just like the letters 'M1' mean the physical M1 motorway) is scheme that stands up well to scrutiny of the facts surrounding its need for construction.

 

To use another example, a new hospital coming in well over budget and years late doesn't mean that the actual hospital wasn't needed - merely that the management of the project was poor.

 

That is separate from the actual management / administration of the project (i.e. HS2 ltd.) where - to use just one example, the focus on speed / reduced journey times has been a monumental screw up.
 

[jjb1970]

On electricity, we don't have a crisis, we have a transition, that is not quite the same thing. Not only are we decarbonising generation but also moving away from very large generating plants and developing micro generation and distributed energy. And these are the right things to do, however no transition is entirely stress free. 

[John Tomlinson]

In response to Phil's comment about Business prerogative about face to face meetings.

 

We're going to have to agree to disagree on this.

 

I won't accept that that business indulgence has the right to help trash the planet. We've had decades now of letting market forces rip under all shades of political administration, and the damage in terms of environmental factors is plain to see. I would very much like to see a sea change in our whole approach, which involves taking a much firmer line on many business practises, which I'm sure would upset a lot of vested interests, but there it is, and I'm sure no-one would thank me for using this forum as a personal political blog.

 

John.

Edited August 25, 2019 by John Tomlinson
inclusion of quote reference

[jjb1970]

Something people either forget or do not understand is that how well any capacity limited system works is not determined by absolute numbers but the balance (or imbalance) between supply and demand. Dickens summed it up perfectly in Mr Micawber. 

[phil-b259]

39 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

Now I know you are just trolling. You didn't respond to my earlier challenges, just marked it funny, so I'll just remove access to the topic and leave it for more intelligent discussion. 

 

The downside to thus is it provides ammunition to those why say RMweb has a hidden agenda. This accusation of 'hidden agendas has blighted most discussions of HS2.

 

I readily accept that a project of the size (and cost) of HS2 requires intense scrutiny to see if it meets the need it has set out to serve - though this can only be done by analysis of factual information and not 'belief'

 

This thread should in theory provide a useful platform for such an analysis - and while most supporters of HS2 will want the project to succeed we should not blind ourselves to the fact that there are some aspects of the scheme which don't stack up (e.g. maximum speed).

 

Critical analysis of the project by others can be helpful in determining these sorts of things - just as supporters can educate others on the true nature of the scheme (rather than rely on the lies / half truths printed in the press or indeed the woeful PR put out by HS2 themesleves) to do the job

[melmerby]

1 hour ago, Andrea506 said:

And what is wrong with using the M1 route? Remove the 2 outside lanes and you have room. Not perfect but better than the current proposals, cheaper too.

I'm sorry Andrea, if you can't come up with something better than such a lame suggestion you will not be treated seriously.

I wouldn't be surprised that the massive contruction required to carry out such a conversion could rival HS2's costs.

Every bridge, junction, service station etc would need to be completely re-constructed.

The disruption would make the construction of HS2 look like a picnic in the park

 

[John Tomlinson]

7 minutes ago, phil-b259 said:

 

However HS2 is not alone in the potential for fraud!

 

ITS incredibly frustrating when the media (and those hostile) try and make out such things are unique to HS2 - where as there are no doubt MANY cases of fraud to be found in in big projects (both Government and Private I hasten to add) over the decades.

 

HS2 as in the actual railway (just like the letters 'M1' mean the physical M1 motorway) is scheme that stands up well to scrutiny of the facts surrounding its need for construction.

 

To use another example, a new hospital coming in well over budget and years late doesn't mean that the actual hospital wasn't needed - merely that the management of the project was poor.

 

That is separate from the actual management / administration of the project (i.e. HS2 ltd.) where - to use just one example, the focus on speed / reduced journey times has been a monumental screw up.
 

You're absolutely right, it isn't.

 

There's fraud and indeed general malpractice everywhere, public and private, and in NGOs's. Sadly it is revealed with monotonous regularity, and I'm sure that's just the tip of the iceberg.

 

That doesn't however say that it shouldn't be sought out and punished. On the basis that HS2 does go ahead - and to be frank none of us knows whether it will or not - better to try to get a grip on internal controls now, rather than when the project is in full flight and the cash is really flowing.

 

Its proponents do however have my sympathy if shortcomings are used as a smear, but I'm afraid that's part of life, and further to my last post yet another thing I'd like to change.

 

John.

[jjb1970]

I think if we compare another major rail upgrade, GWML electrification, I think most would agree that it was badly executed (at least initially). That doesn't mean that it was the wrong thing to do or a bad idea, it just means any good idea can be badly executed. I don't think anyone questions the need for HS2 to be subject to scrutiny and for accountability, but that is a different argument from whether or not it should be built. 

[Rugd1022]

2 hours ago, Andrea506 said:

I'm not talking about so called HS3. Just improving existing lines by putting up overhead wires, easing curves, new trains, silly things like improving the quality of the service.

 

A major part of improving the quality of service is increasing capacity, hence why HS2 is needed. Improving existing lines isn't enough to solve the problem, easing curves is laudable but now always possible due to the way the railways were developed piecemeal In the Victorian era. There simply isn't enough physical space in some locations.

[phil-b259]

27 minutes ago, John Tomlinson said:

 

I won't accept that that business indulgence has the right to help trash the planet. We've had decades now of letting market forces rip under all shades of political administration, and the damage in terms of environmental factors is plain to see. I would very much like to see a sea change in our whole approach, which involves taking a much firmer line on many business practises, which I'm sure would upset a lot of vested interests, but there it is, and I'm sure no-one would thank me for using this forum as a personal political blog.

 

 

The point more is how exactly do you stop them!

 

As you correctly imply this can only be done via political change at the top - including a willingness to take on vested interests and upset the cosy big business - Government relationship.

 

I totally agree with this - but equally cannot see how it can be fixed -certainly within a timescale that would make HS2 unnecessary. As someone once said we must deal with things as they are - not how we pretend them to be.

 

One thing is for sure though, anything that will hurt big business (even if its well intended / long overdue) will be sold to employees, customers, regulators, shareholders as 'the fault of the Government if it produces negative outcomes. That in turn will feed back to said Government via general election votes...

 

As a society, humans are mostly a greedy bunch and will rarely sacrifice comfortable lives to help others (or the planet) Government can only do so much - things like the acceptance of lower profit levels due to higher production costs to minimise environmental impacts need to come from institutional shareholders.

 

 

 

 

Edited August 25, 2019 by phil-b259

[phil-b259]

53 minutes ago, John Tomlinson said:

 

That doesn't however say that it shouldn't be sought out and punished. On the basis that HS2 does go ahead - and to be frank none of us knows whether it will or not - better to try to get a grip on internal controls now, rather than when the project is in full flight and the cash is really flowing.

 

 

No problem with that Jon

 

The issue is folk using any such problems as a reason to scrap a project for which there is a well proven need (even if some aspects like top speed could do with re-examination)

Edited August 25, 2019 by phil-b259

[corneliuslundie]

I beg to differ slightly with Phil on electricity generation capacity. Back in CEGB days there was something like 30% total surplus capacity, to allow for maintenance, unplanned outages and sudden peaks - half time during the cup final type things. Now we are down to single figures, but as Phil rightly states the mix has changed radically and is still changing, and the mix now requires greater rather than less resilience. But privatisation means that there is no quick return for such investment, so it is not happening.

And on rail capacity, I think the chaos at Birmingham NS over the last few days shows that it is rammed to the hilt and as soon  as anything slips it affects the whole network - in this case Edinburgh, Plymouth, Bristol, Aberystwyth to name those I identified in an hour or two trying to get home last night. so just tweaking signalling and line speeds on the WCML is not going to achieve anything.

Whether HS2 is the right solution is not so obvious. I like some others here would like to see less need for people to travel for work, but that requires a kind of long term policy which we in the UK never get, so it will not happen, especially while the Treasury gets so much money from fuel sales.

An interesting aside, i noticed a headline in a paper the other day saying that total population has blipped because of a drop in birthrate.  Whether this is true or not I cannot tell but it was one of the papers I would put in the same class as the Daily Wail. so it may be a fiction. In my neck of the woods population is actually dropping though absolute numbers of the elderly are increasing, but that is not the norm. But if true it has major implications for all sorts of things as it will affect tax income in a big way, and make arguments over waiting times in the health service seem trivial. And make major capital expenditure such as new railways even more difficult to afford and justify.

Jonathan