HS2 under review

[phil-b259]

1 hour ago, lmsforever said:

I  would like to know if there is any idea of the number of expresses on the wcml after hs2 as at the moment the market is very boyant providing  much needed links for people north of London.

 

The exact details of post HS2 services has not yet been finalised, but sections of this document from 2016 gives an idea of what current thinking is likley to be https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/498234/assumptions_report_PFM_2016.pdf Note, since the Heathrow branch of HS2 has been dumped, any trains shown as going there in the report can be assumed to go to Euston

 

Pages 52 to 56 relate to InterCity services remaining on the WCL post HS2

 

Pages 47 to 52 relate to HS2 services, including those extending onto the rest of the rail network.

 

Please note:-

(1) There may be other more recent documents out there - I don't have time to search right now. If you, or anyone else does come across any please say.

(2) The final service patten will not be set in stone until much closer to HS2 opening for traffic. What is work exists at present is a 'best guess' and the final result may look very different.

(3) Non InterCity services on the WCML are not all slow all station affairs and limited stop services run by LNWR (or whoever they are called now) will have a part to play.

 

Edited August 26, 2019 by phil-b259

[rockershovel]

I’m puzzled that philb259, above, appears to regard me as a supporter of HS2?

 

re jonny777, the A1 does extend North of Kings Lynn, you know. Try sampling the huge traffic jams resulting from almost any incident or localised roadworks; last week there was a tailback N of Peterborough stretching several miles, for at least half a day, and that’s quite common; further North it’s pretty much the norm. 

 

Im afraid that I am unable to believe that without centralised planning, and government action,  rail will make any impact on JIT manufacturing. On that basis, HS2 would go from Southampton and Tilbury to Oxford and Coventry. DIRFT is already operating, and the whole industry is hostage to the next round of the EU briding someone to move a factory to Croatia, or doing a deal with Japan to import directly (both of which are already happening, stay or leave). 

 

 

[TheQ]

20 hours ago, jonny777 said:

 

 

I would be interested to know which roads you think are "choked". 

 

The A14 is busy and queues can build up between Cambridge and Huntingdon, but that is more to do with the £1 billion + improvement scheme being implemented. 

 

The A17 A47 and A148 can be busy on summer weekends and Bank Holidays, but for most of the year the traffic races along (except for when slowed by certain drivers - see below). 

 

 

Having used the A14 many times, this is a choked road  down between Bury St Edmonds and Ipswich . There was often choking BEFORE the road works at the Huntiingdon end.

 

Your view of the A17 is mysteriously wrong. I'll be on there again shortly, it can NEVER be called a racing along road. From Kings Lynn most of the way to Sutton bridge it's got average speed cameras, getting past convoys of lorries, tractors and caravans is a nightmare.  Then after a short new bit on the trackbed of an old railway, the road goes down to a 50 mph limit for many miles. Then there are all the round abouts / Sutton Bridge /   the level crossing and it's 40mph limit. (Sutton bridge will be closed for a part of September meaning a 40 mile detour)

 

Having got rid of the Heckington Dual carriageway back down to single lane each way with central reservation, reduced the speed limit approaching Sutton Bridge to 30mph on one of the rare places to pass. Reduced Speed limit past Cranwell to 50MPH, And then built that disaster of a road junction between the A17 / A1 /A46 which is always a traffic jam. The A 17 is slower than it used to be. (PS I dont use that junction anymore its that bad, I divert and use the old junction At Coddington..

 

Although the A11 is now much improved from 40+ years ago when I first used it, it now being all Dual carriageway, the Barton MIlls round about, Thetford and its 5? round abouts. Don't make it easy. 

 

Then North OF Lincolnshire the A19 or A1  including the A1 south of where it becomes the A1(M) the roads are not good, some times you get a clear run, quite often you don't, slowing to below 30mph, coming almost to a halt, then speeding up to the limit again just because of weight of traffic is common. The A1 north of Alnwick has improved but again there are many miles where you can get stuck behind slow vehicles.

 

AS for HS2, I support it, But still believe they've gone for too high a speed, A lower speed would allow more use of the old Central railway track bed (that that survives), and allow more traffic on it..

Edited August 27, 2019 by TheQ

[corneliuslundie]

 

it is not so much 125 mph trains as such as the mix of different speeds which eats up capacity.

And in answer to lmsforever, if those long distance trains not heading for Birmingham are on HS2 there will be quite a number of extra paths, and as stated earlier Daft wants there to remain express trains serving intermediate stations, so there should be no problem in accommodating something like the number we have now plus more freight and stoppers, the whole intention of the scheme.

But of course DafT may change its tune a few dozen times between now and when HS2 opens. How many elections in the intervening period? So the real answer is "Who knows?"

Jonathan

[RedgateModels]

19 hours ago, Phil Parker said:

 

Those days will return once people show an inclination to fund "serious journalism". While they (including people on this forum) prefer random squealing from YouTubers because they come for free, then no-one other than the independently wealthy can afford to break the news. 

 

 

I'm here. Where do I apply?

 

"Let them eat cake!"

[Bernard Lamb]

If it is cancelled then Euston will have the most expensive taxi rank in the universe.

AFAIK that is the only stand alone part of the scheme that is actually up and running.

Bernard

[Pete the Elaner]

11 hours ago, lmsforever said:

I  would like to know if there is any idea of the number of expresses on the wcml after hs2 as at the moment the market is very boyant providing  much needed links for people north of London.

Now is so far in advance of when the line will open that only guesses can be made.

 

For those unfamiliar with just how busy the WCML is:

 

Pendolinos were introduced in 2003 as 8 coach units. These would have needed to be ordered several years earlier & Virgin already started to talk about them soon after they won the franchise in 1997.

All were extended to 9 coaches relatively quickly.

After a few more years, more coaches were ordered to extend many trains to 11 coaches, 3 new 11 coach sets were ordered (although 1 was a replacement for the Grayrigg train) & the 9 coach sets were modified, having 1 first class coach re-built as a standard.

Additional Euston-Glasgow/Edinburgh services have been introduced which run through the West Midlands. These use Voyagers because there are not enough Pendolinos.

 

When I first moved to MK in 2002, I could get on a Virgin Mk2 in Euston & occasionally share it with about 6-7 people if I was prepared to walk to the far end of the platform. It would usually be a bit busier but if I had to share a 'block of 4' then it was a busy service. Suburban services were extended to 8 coaches in the peak period & you could always get a seat.

Suburbans are now virtually all 12 coaches, having required several platforms to be extended. They are also standing room only, the queues waiting for them to arrive having more than tripled.

Virgin have reduced many of the intermediate stops. Why? It is because they can fill them for longer trips (ie, Euston to Liverpool). They no longer need to stop them in order to fill them.

 

That is how things have changed in the last 10-15 years. If they continue to get busier (& I have not seen anyone with an argument suggesting why they shouldn't), then where will we be in 10 years time?I sometimes get on a semi-fast which runs on the fast lines to Ledburn (just S of Leighton Buzzard) to pass a couple of slower services & freights on the slow lines. This travels at a maximum of 110 while on the fast lines. Within 5 minutes, 2 Pendolinos have whizzed past.

[jamie92208]

Interesting  2nd item on the BBC news at 8am today about potential cost overuns for HS2 having been known about since 2016.  Am I bei g a tad cynical to wonder why this has surfaced the day before the review is due to start.  How could the two items possibly be conne ted.

 

 

Jamie

[pete_mcfarlane]

4 minutes ago, jamie92208 said:

Interesting  2nd item on the BBC news at 8am today about potential cost overuns for HS2 having been known about since 2016.  Am I bei g a tad cynical to wonder why this has surfaced the day before the review is due to start.  How could the two items possibly be conne ted.

 

 

Jamie

There's something on their website here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49450297

 

I don't think they fully understand that the £55bn budget includes provision for cost over runs, so it's possible for the project to go £3bn over budget and still not exceed this £55bn figure. 

[88D]

9 minutes ago, jamie92208 said:

Interesting  2nd item on the BBC news at 8am today about potential cost overuns for HS2 having been known about since 2016.  Am I bei g a tad cynical to wonder why this has surfaced the day before the review is due to start.  How could the two items possibly be conne ted.

 

 

Jamie

Equally cynical about why the potential cost overruns weren’t mentioned in 2016.

[Mark Saunders]

2 minutes ago, jamie92208 said:

Interesting  2nd item on the BBC news at 8am today about potential cost overuns for HS2 having been known about since 2016.  Am I bei g a tad cynical to wonder why this has surfaced the day before the review is due to start.  How could the two items possibly be conne ted.

 

 

Jamie

 

The debate about all cost over run on any project is always rolled out by the opponents; many of them oppose because they can't stand the thought of others getting a benefit that they don't.

 

However these tend to be the same people who know the price of everything and value of nothing!

 

The Elephant in the room is what are the real construction costs and what is the amount paid out in compensation?

 

Mark Saunders

[John Tomlinson]

For those of you who, sensibly, could find something better to do than read through all of the BBC piece, apparently Shapps the new Transport Minister is to update Parliament next week (when they're back from hols), about the state of play on the project.

 

Looks like the folk in Westminster are in for a busy time, with all the other  things going on.

 

John.

[Mike Storey]

7 minutes ago, John Tomlinson said:

For those of you who, sensibly, could find something better to do than read through all of the BBC piece, apparently Shapps the new Transport Minister is to update Parliament next week (when they're back from hols), about the state of play on the project.

 

Looks like the folk in Westminster are in for a busy time, with all the other  things going on.

 

John.

 

I doubt we, or parliament will learn much, next week. Everything now seems to be on hold until the "review" has reported.

[runs as required]

A Vision of a Flexible Future

Another fleeting thought about the HS2 Review - based upon German  and Spanish practice.

1. As someone has pointed out we have willingly cleared a large chunk of (formerly interesting townscape) alongside Euston station that must surely be extraordinarily valuable in both monetary and/or functional/cultural value.
2. If similarly the Curzon St terminus were to be dropped in favour of a higher capacity through station further east, then the city centre site could likewise be available for 'City Beautiful' future developments.
3. Now the alternative fleeting vision:
   I'm always charmed by the way the international trains interact with the A Bahn trains  through Berlin (Friedrichstrasse etc.),  
4. So why not Talgo style HSTs that can twist and turn along Heritage lines (and through through existing and future Crossrail routings) as well as blasting along brand new alignment (preferably corridors containing existing |(or narrowed) motorways.
5. This allows the route and timetable planners a much broader canvas upon which to distribute capacity and headways and better choice of locations for realignments and route improvement: such as

 

• running via airports;
• Higher speed capacity on the Liverpool/Leeds/York/Hull axes; 
• through-running across London;
• E-W routes from East Anglia across via Bletchley to the S &W
• Galashiels/Hawick/Carlisle/Newcastle (via Kielder timber haulage?)
• North Wales resorts to Cardiff via Wrexham
• inland route replacing Dawlish
• more?

Gets hat ... coat before you lot all start ABUSING ME WITH CAPS LOCK AND BOLD ON

 

 

 

[Phil Parker]

3 minutes ago, runs as required said:

So why not Talgo style HSTs that can twist and turn along Heritage lines (and through through existing and future Crossrail routings) as well as blasting along brand new alignment (preferably corridors containing existing |(or narrowed) motorways.

 

Welcome to the 1970s. Do you remember the APT? That's what it was supposed to do. Another project screwed up in "Great" Britain by those in charge and another group of engineers let down by people who ought to leave difficult thinking to grown-ups.

 

And it still wouldn't free up any space on the existing track system, which as several posters here have pointed out, is the reason we need HS2. ]

 

As for the land issue. I've wondered if there are developers eyeing up the London end and thinking that when the project is cancelled, they will get it for a bargain price. Not so sure the Brum end will be so popular, efforts to move the city centre in that direction haven't worked very well to date, but if the land is cheap enough, it will find willing buyers.

[John Tomlinson]

1 hour ago, Mike Storey said:

 

I doubt we, or parliament will learn much, next week. Everything now seems to be on hold until the "review" has reported.

You may well be right.

 

I for one am now quite confused as to the timing of the "review".

 

On the one hand a full review was supposed to being prepared by the Autumn, around the time that the latest proposal for HS3 was to appear, on the other hand the review announced by Shapps a week or so ago was due by the end of the year. Plus we know that the Treasury under Truss was well underway with a review and ranking of Government capex plans, and this won't have vanished into the ether with the reshuffle of Ministers under Johnson.

 

Help!!

 

John.

[black and decker boy]

^ we already have trains that can do all of that, the Class 221.

 

to go high speed on our existing twisty routes you need tilt.

 

having the train isn’t the problem, it’s capacity of the tracks with the wide mix of freight, stopping, semi fast and true express services. Even with a single uniform fleet of Talgo HST, you would not have sufficient capacity to meet demand.

 

plus aren’t we trying to move away from diesel fuel?

[dibber25]

We should be looking at limiting movement and restricting capacity in the future. Technology is making working at home more and more commonplace. The planet cannot stand all the travel and movement that's taking place because, however we power it, there is an environmental cost. Coming generations will need to make some very hard decisions about population growth , movement etc. At some point, we have to be satisfied with what we have, not evermore striving for 'growth' in everything. HS2 might have some justification if it meant an end to Heathrow expansion but with a bit of thought for the real future, both should be dropped, and the sooner the better. (CJL)

[runs as required]

10 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

And it still wouldn't free up any space on the existing track system, which as several posters here have pointed out, is the reason we need HS2. ]

 

As for the land issue. I've wondered if there are developers eyeing up the London end and thinking that when the project is cancelled, they will get it for a bargain price. Not so sure the Brum end will be so popular, efforts to move the city centre in that direction haven't worked very well to date, but if the land is cheap enough, it will find willing buyers.

Thanks for the response.

Please note the 'vision' did not specifically abandon the HS2 'wayleave', simply open up additional routing options.

I make no apology for a 1960/70s optimistic outlook.

dh

[John Tomlinson]

10 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

 

Welcome to the 1970s. Do you remember the APT? That's what it was supposed to do. Another project screwed up in "Great" Britain by those in charge and another group of engineers let down by people who ought to leave difficult thinking to grown-ups.

 

And it still wouldn't free up any space on the existing track system, which as several posters here have pointed out, is the reason we need HS2. ]

 

As for the land issue. I've wondered if there are developers eyeing up the London end and thinking that when the project is cancelled, they will get it for a bargain price. Not so sure the Brum end will be so popular, efforts to move the city centre in that direction haven't worked very well to date, but if the land is cheap enough, it will find willing buyers.

The development issue is an interesting one.

 

It may be coincidence, but the shares of the Berkeley Group have had someting of a boost in recent weeks, particularly compared to much of the housebuilding sector. This may be because of their specialism in brownfield development, and whilst historically that's been in the southeast, they have expanded further afield more recently.

 

I don't know much about Birmingham, but presumably the land freed up around Curzon St. by cancellation would be ideal for high density residential smaller properties, particularly targeted at the younger more affluent buyer?

 

John,

[runs as required]

20 minutes ago, black and decker boy said:

^ we already have trains that can do all of that, the Class 221.

to go high speed on our existing twisty routes you need tilt.

having the train isn’t the problem, it’s capacity of the tracks with the wide mix of freight, stopping, semi fast and true express services. Even with a single uniform fleet of Talgo HST, you would not have sufficient capacity to meet demand.

plus aren’t we trying to move away from diesel fuel?

Can the 221 cars navigate the NL viaducts twisting across Camden - at one time vaunted as  a  low cost existing link across from OO Common and the WCML to Stratford?

Talgos surely are electric rather than diesel  - Even a dd version is projected (but I stand to be corrected)

dh

[griffgriff]

I’m sure a proper wash and brush up of the Midland ML could really help North to South capacity. Not nearly and bendy as the WCML and much more quadruple line that the ECML. I remember an article in Modern Railways back in the 80s describing the MML as a cul-de-sac perhaps it’s time it went somewhere again?

 

Griff

[John Tomlinson]

11 minutes ago, griffgriff said:

I’m sure a proper wash and brush up of the Midland ML could really help North to South capacity. Not nearly and bendy as the WCML and much more quadruple line that the ECML. I remember an article in Modern Railways back in the 80s describing the MML as a cul-de-sac perhaps it’s time it went somewhere again?

 

Griff

Others can comment, but I understand the issue is that the MML has a capacity issue south of Bedford. It's back to the problem of the overheated southeast again.

 

Certainly in my neck of the woods, around Leicester, there is no such problem, and were the original Midland four track to be re-instated throughout, plus perhaps Nottingham to Melton (now the test track), I suspect there would be no problem at all outside the southeast.

 

John.

[pete_mcfarlane]

47 minutes ago, runs as required said:

So why not Talgo style HSTs that can twist and turn along Heritage lines (and through through existing and future Crossrail routings) as well as blasting along brand new alignment (preferably corridors containing existing |(or narrowed) motorways.

 

You'd probably struggle to get those flimsy cut-price things past the UK's rail safety standards.

[griffgriff]

I agree with your observation regarding Leicester. 

 

My suggestion to create capacity further south..... either extend..... or cutback crossrail trains. So either more seats up north or more track capacity further south? Thoughts?

 

Griff