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HS2 under review


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45 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

Apparently you never visited Llanwern steelworks where the changes oin working practices, equipment, and productivity leapt up enormously after privatisation.  The number of man hours it took to roll a 12  ton steel coil made it one of the most efficient rolling mills in Europe.  Equally you seem to be unfamiliar with BR - although it's a while since it went of course - which had the most efficient passenger rolling stock utilisation in Europe and to a degree which many other European countries still haven't got anywhere near.

 

It isn't all sunshine and roses, or industrial efficiency, on the mainland compared with Britain.

You obviously haven't been on the receiving end of dealing with 'mainland European' managed rolling stock manufacturers.

 

This would be the Llanwern steel works which seemed to be at deaths door quite recently, and has passed through various ownerships? What about Scunthorpe, which seems to be in the same situation? 

 

I worked for Knorr Bremse (a German rolling stock contractor) for about 9 months in total, and since then for a Dutch company in U.K. ... I have a lot of experience of European companies, thanks. I don’t necessarily claim that that they are the greatest things in God’s world, but they DO have highly developed ideas on the subject of German or Dutch money being spent with German or Dutch companies, employing German or Dutch personnel, and nowhere else; and they have governments which take a similar view. My experience of Europe, and a lot of places not in Europe, are that you cannot compete because you are NOT ALLOWED to compete, even if you are competitive (which British companies all too frequently aren’t, often because they are inadequate on the technical side)

 

 

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Having read the official case for HS2, projections of passenger and journey numbers of HS2 tripling the existing capacity,  I believe it it would be a good idea to test the assumptions first,  I suggest an experiment or trial to operate  a frequent  service of  low-cost  aircraft flights between single purpose temporary airports on the proposed HS2 route  and London City (Docklands) airport, the fares and frequency of service could be devised to mimic the HS2 timetable, such an experiment would surely test those assumptions of the "suppressed" demand for HS2 travel.

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1 minute ago, Pandora said:

Having read the official case for HS2, projections of passenger and journey numbers of HS2 tripling the existing capacity,  I believe it it would be a good idea to test the assumptions first,  I suggest an experiment or trial to operate  a frequent  service of  low-cost  aircraft flights between single purpose temporary airports on the proposed HS2 route  and London City (Docklands) airport, the fares and frequency of service could be devised to mimic the HS2 timetable, such an experiment would surely test those assumptions of the "suppressed" demand for HS2 travel.

 

Would that be feasible, in terms of the numbers involved? It's a fascinating idea - although it carries the obvious implied risk of demonstrating that low-cost airlines would be cheaper anyway, which appears to have been the American experience. 

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24 minutes ago, Pandora said:

Having read the official case for HS2, projections of passenger and journey numbers of HS2 tripling the existing capacity,  I believe it it would be a good idea to test the assumptions first,  I suggest an experiment or trial to operate  a frequent  service of  low-cost  aircraft flights between single purpose temporary airports on the proposed HS2 route  and London City (Docklands) airport, the fares and frequency of service could be devised to mimic the HS2 timetable, such an experiment would surely test those assumptions of the "suppressed" demand for HS2 travel.

Capacity at the London end would still be an issue - the skies over London are rather congested.

 

HS2 delivers the faster services between Midlands, Lancashire and Yorkshire because there isn't the air advantage that exists when looking at Edinburgh/Glasgow/Aberdeen/Inverness to London.

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16 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

Capacity at the London end would still be an issue - the skies over London are rather congested.

 

HS2 delivers the faster services between Midlands, Lancashire and Yorkshire because there isn't the air advantage that exists when looking at Edinburgh/Glasgow/Aberdeen/Inverness to London.

... and I thought this thread had argued itself into agreeing additional capacity (i.e. 2 tracks) was the greatest argument for HS2 from OO Common northwards ... to Brum... um...  Warrington/Toton ??

dh

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32 minutes ago, runs as required said:

... and I thought this thread had argued itself into agreeing additional capacity (i.e. 2 tracks) was the greatest argument for HS2 from OO Common northwards ... to Brum... um...  Warrington/Toton ??

dh

 

HS2 by passes Warrington.

 

image.png.860fa03da62793c47e25afafbbd9f9fe.png

 

I think (if we are lucky) Crewe will be as far as it gets on the west leg. We will probably know soon.

 

Brit15

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1 hour ago, woodenhead said:

Capacity at the London end would still be an issue - the skies over London are rather congested.

 

HS2 delivers the faster services between Midlands, Lancashire and Yorkshire because there isn't the air advantage that exists when looking at Edinburgh/Glasgow/Aberdeen/Inverness to London.

 

London City is a small terminal with absolutely atrocious access, at certain times of the day. 

 

I take it that "lack of air advantage" is the inevitable additional time built into the airline timetable for passport control, boarding etc ? 

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London City airport drops fliers on the doorstep of Canary Wharf and the city of London, both financial centres of high pay and employment, and the airport serves the city gents on their way to and from

Amsterdam, Berlin–Tegel, Billund, Dublin, Düsseldorf, Edinburgh, Florence, Frankfurt, Geneva, Glasgow, Ibiza, Isle of Man, Luxembourg Málaga, Manchester, Milan–Linate, Munich, New York–JFK,1 Nice, Palma de Mallorca, Prague, Rome–Fiumicino, Rotterdam, Zurich

 etc, transport links are Crossrail ( when it opens), Docklands Light Railway,  the Tube,  road via taxis etc,  I reject any assertions of a "small backwater", I think it would be an ideal focus for the experiment of assessing suppressed demand for an HS2 travel corridors. I'd rather throw some money into such a trial than risk the £100 bn which HS2 will most like cost us

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5 minutes ago, Pandora said:

London City airport drops fliers on the doorstep of Canary Wharf and the city of London, both financial centres of high pay and employment, and the airport serves the city gents on their way to and from

Amsterdam, Berlin–Tegel, Billund, Dublin, Düsseldorf, Edinburgh, Florence, Frankfurt, Geneva, Glasgow, Ibiza, Isle of Man, Luxembourg Málaga, Manchester, Milan–Linate, Munich, New York–JFK,1 Nice, Palma de Mallorca, Prague, Rome–Fiumicino, Rotterdam, Zurich

 etc, transport links are Crossrail ( when it opens), Docklands Light Railway,  the Tube,  road via taxis etc,  I reject any assertions of a "small backwater", I think it would be an ideal focus for the experiment of assessing suppressed demand for an HS2 travel corridors

 

Yes, I know London City.

 

As you say, CrossRail isn't yet open. DLR is hardly a mass transit system, or the Jubilee Line Extension would not have been needed. Road access to London City is absolutely atrocious at certain times of the day. 

 

It is a small airport by any standards, with (as you rightly say) a large business customer base right on its doorstep and an intensive pattern of connecting flights already in place. 

 

Its very specialised location dictates that onky aircraft and aircrew certificated for 5.5deg approaches can land there, and the biggest aircraft in use is the Airbus 318

 

I didnt mean to imply it was a backwater (like, say, Exeter or Newquay) but I have difficulty envisaging it as a trial centre for cheap mass travel, over and above its existing services. I'd say you were looking at somewhere like Stansted for that. 

 

 

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25 minutes ago, Pandora said:

I'd rather throw some money into such a trial than risk the £100 bn which HS2 will most like cost us

 

Even if you found lots of travellers willing to go to London City and fly north, how does this replicate the advantages of extra paths on the WCML etc. ?

 

If the trial failed, even just on the passenger numbers, can you really say it was a realistic experiment when factoring in the inconvenience of getting to the airport instead of a station, the inconvenience of getting from an airport instead of a station, extra security required for flying and many other reasons people prefer trains to planes.

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2 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

 

Even if you found lots of travellers willing to go to London City and fly north, how does this replicate the advantages of extra paths on the WCML etc. ?

 

If the trial failed, even just on the passenger numbers, can you really say it was a realistic experiment when factoring in the inconvenience of getting to the airport instead of a station, the inconvenience of getting from an airport instead of a station, extra security required for flying and many other reasons people prefer trains to planes.

 

I have historically preferred trains to flying, but not since my Plymouth experience over the winter. It was bloody awful, and not cheap by any definition. After a while I just gave up and drove instead. 

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3 hours ago, Pandora said:

Having read the official case for HS2, projections of passenger and journey numbers of HS2 tripling the existing capacity,  I believe it it would be a good idea to test the assumptions first,  I suggest an experiment or trial to operate  a frequent  service of  low-cost  aircraft flights between single purpose temporary airports on the proposed HS2 route  and London City (Docklands) airport, the fares and frequency of service could be devised to mimic the HS2 timetable, such an experiment would surely test those assumptions of the "suppressed" demand for HS2 travel.

 

3 hours ago, woodenhead said:

Capacity at the London end would still be an issue - the skies over London are rather congested.

 

HS2 delivers the faster services between Midlands, Lancashire and Yorkshire because there isn't the air advantage that exists when looking at Edinburgh/Glasgow/Aberdeen/Inverness to London.

 

2 hours ago, runs as required said:

... and I thought this thread had argued itself into agreeing additional capacity (i.e. 2 tracks) was the greatest argument for HS2 from OO Common northwards ... to Brum... um...  Warrington/Toton ??

dh

My comments on capacity related to the airports not HS2 in this case

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4 hours ago, rockershovel said:

 

This would be the Llanwern steel works which seemed to be at deaths door quite recently, and has passed through various ownerships? What about Scunthorpe, which seems to be in the same situation? 

 

 

 

 

No. This would be the Llanwern that could be run with one person in the control room watching all the action on TV. Not a single person to be seen on the floor. Yes. I have been in there so can talk from direct experience. The very same Llanwern that could roll thinner gauges to a tighter tolerance than any other mill in Europe. I know that because I got a very nice suggestion scheme pay out for proposing a money saving use for it before it was officially announced. Things did change in later years but this is not the place to go into the complexities of steel making. I fear it might be a bit beyond your grasp any way.

Bernard

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4 hours ago, rockershovel said:

 

This would be the Llanwern steel works which seemed to be at deaths door quite recently, and has passed through various ownerships? What about Scunthorpe, which seems to be in the same situation? 

 

I worked for Knorr Bremse (a German rolling stock contractor) for about 9 months in total, and since then for a Dutch company in U.K. ... I have a lot of experience of European companies, thanks. I don’t necessarily claim that that they are the greatest things in God’s world, but they DO have highly developed ideas on the subject of German or Dutch money being spent with German or Dutch companies, employing German or Dutch personnel, and nowhere else; and they have governments which take a similar view. My experience of Europe, and a lot of places not in Europe, are that you cannot compete because you are NOT ALLOWED to compete, even if you are competitive (which British companies all too frequently aren’t, often because they are inadequate on the technical side)

 

 

Yes, that very Llanwern steelworks.  The difference is that steelworks can, like any business (including train building) only thrive when demand is there for their products.  Just the same with Scunthorpe.  You can be miraculously efficient but if there is no market, or too small a market, for what you make you can get into trouble.

 

Laycock Knorr of course prospered in Britain as a development of the original Laycock company and did good business for many years with BR.  But no demand = no sales to Uk rolling stock builders. = business gone.  On the other hand Knorr Bremse were in the European market basically competing across the highly standardised European rail market which dwarfed the British market.  If you have that market on your doorstep and can efficiently beat your competitors you will grow and thrive as a company.  The problem of the British railway manufacturing industry was simple - it never had much of a European market and when its other markets shrank it was badly placed to get into the European market, both geographically and in technical terms.  But that doesn't now make much difference in respect of HS 2 because our railway rolling stock industry has shrunk to almost miniscule size so finds it even harder to compete.

21 minutes ago, Bernard Lamb said:

No. This would be the Llanwern that could be run with one person in the control room watching all the action on TV. Not a single person to be seen on the floor. Yes. I have been in there so can talk from direct experience. The very same Llanwern that could roll thinner gauges to a tighter tolerance than any other mill in Europe. I know that because I got a very nice suggestion scheme pay out for proposing a money saving use for it before it was officially announced. Things did change in later years but this is not the place to go into the complexities of steel making. I fear it might be a bit beyond your grasp any way.

Bernard

Exactly so - in a rolling mill where prior to the introduction of new control technology etc each run would see around a dozen or more men on the ground along the line plus others in control positions.  The change was very marked and obvious if, like me. you knew the rolling mill both before and after the big changeover.  In fact when I went to work on the site in early 1974 the change from only three years previously was incredible with a massive reduction in the number of people but producing an even better product at a lower price.

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On 23/08/2019 at 19:38, Ravenser said:

 

I'm afraid you are being naïve about how far the eco-warriors will go. Yesterday a House of Commons  Select Committee recommended that private cars - whether electric or not - will need to be abolished by 2050 "to meet climate change targets"   MPs call for cars to be banned  Extinction Rebellion want it to happen inside 6 years, and suggest that democratic government probably needs to go to make that happen...

 

 

Hi

 

How do they suggest people who live in rural areas without any public transport go anywhere. How would I get to work for example?

 

Cheers

 

Paul 

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19 minutes ago, PaulCheffus said:

 

Hi

 

How do they suggest people who live in rural areas without any public transport go anywhere. How would I get to work for example?

 

Cheers

 

Paul 

Simples, you won't have a job. You'll be spending all day growing your own turnips in order to survive. 

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6 minutes ago, PaulCheffus said:

 

Hi

 

How do they suggest people who live in rural areas without any public transport go anywhere. How would I get to work for example?

 

Cheers

 

Paul 

I live in a small town which fortunately is on a rail branch with a 7-day half hourly service to a big city station, journey time 30 minutes approx.

My remaining Sunday bus service is about to be cut by another 50% next week, to about a quarter of what it was two years ago.

Another route which goes to my daughter's town 8 miles away used to run hourly approx 7am to 7pm, 7 days a week with a late night trip but since the last round of cuts it is six times a day, Monday to Friday only. Totally useless for me to use getting there and back so I now have to use the car instead of the bus.

I can't use public transport to get to the big city to the east because there isn't any other than starting by travelling 15 miles west then 5 miles south, passing about 4 miles from my house after 30 miles travel. Drive time direct is about half an hour.

Most shopping other than daily needs has to be done by car or mail order. Fortunately I am retired so don't have to commute to work.

With the present state of public transport outside a small number of big cities and a free market economy driven by the financial greed of a few (enabled by their politician puppets) rather than the needs of the many there is no way that maintaining the current system and abolishing private cars.

(Rant over, my turn to get thrashed at snooker by a 7-year-old.)

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35 minutes ago, pete_mcfarlane said:

Simples, you won't have a job. You'll be spending all day growing your own turnips in order to survive. 

Living in a small village (60 residents) 10 miles from the nearest supermarket and 4 miles for a post office and pub.  I need a car.  However every day I see all our three resident farmers, and a couple of contractors going pat our house in tractors towing various pieces of farm machinery, there is no day in the year when those diesel powered machines go past.   If they were abolished the people in the cities would starve.   However we are a long way from HS2 but only 15 miles from the latest TGV line.

 

Jam

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45 minutes ago, PaulCheffus said:

 

Hi

 

How do they suggest people who live in rural areas without any public transport go anywhere. How would I get to work for example?

 

Cheers

 

Paul 

 

You'd be stuffed. As Lincolnshire has voted for the wrong things and has the wrong attitudes and lifestyle in their eyes they'd say  "And serve them right! WE HAVE TO SAVE THE PLANET""   

 

Eco-warriors tend to live in big cities , and are pretty unsympathetic to the barbarians who live outside the M25. Linking those conurbations by high-speed rail covers them . They aren't too interested in other kinds of people

 

The phrase "I'm all right, Jack" comes to mind

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Looking at some of the comments above, quite a few earlier points seem to have been wrapped up quite neatly. 

 

It DOES matter, very much, who owns a business and where they are based. I don't know steelmaking but I DO know that the German and French governments take it seriously, and are prepared to back their steelmakers. The difference is there to be seen. 

 

Same applies to the automotive sector. 

 

If a British manufacturer, backed by the government, had made a serious effort to establish themselves in Europe (which is a very attractive market, being large and highly standardised) that might have paid off. The Germans, in particular, will NOT allow foreign companies to take their business. 

 

Same applies to the renewables sector, where the Dutch in particular will NOT allow non-Dutch companies on their patch. They invest in good gear, they invest in their people and they reap the rewards. Note that this is INVESTMENT, not the foreign asset price speculation driving the office-building boom in places like Birmingham (incidentally the 1980s office building boom didn't turn out too well in the end, did it?)

 

If we had a credible development plan for industry and employment, and it worked, and it was generally believed that more rail capacity would allow it to grow further, people would be queueing outside Westminster telling them to get on with it ....

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, jamie92208 said:

Living in a small village (60 residents) 10 miles from the nearest supermarket and 4 miles for a post office and pub.  I need a car.  However every day I see all our three resident farmers, and a couple of contractors going pat our house in tractors towing various pieces of farm machinery, there is no day in the year when those diesel powered machines go past.   If they were abolished the people in the cities would starve.   However we are a long way from HS2 but only 15 miles from the latest TGV line.

 

Jam

 

 

We are firmly into "gilet jaune" territory now... That's the French reaction to this kind of urban hipster agenda 

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1 hour ago, PaulCheffus said:

 

Hi

 

How do they suggest people who live in rural areas without any public transport go anywhere. How would I get to work for example?

 

Cheers

 

Paul 

See the first part of the name "extinction rebellion"

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49 minutes ago, rockershovel said:

 

If we had a credible development plan for industry and employment, and it worked, and it was generally believed that more rail capacity would allow it to grow further, people would be queueing outside Westminster telling them to get on with it ....

 

 

Just in case anyone missed it, the last [Con] govt came up with an Industrial strategy. https://www.gov.uk/government/topical-events/the-uks-industrial-strategy

 

Across England, the Local Enterprise Partnerships are tasked with coming up with Local Industrial strategies to do exactly what Mr Rockershovel requests. These do need to include HS2 where relevant [which it certainly is in the East midlands]. And it's all now in the  capable hands of the Secretary of State for Business, Enterprise & Industrial Strategy, the Right Hon Andrea Leadsom, MP. 

https://www.gov.uk/government/people/andrea-leadsom

 

All written with a straight face. Careful now, I get to work with this stuff.

 

Dava

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2 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

Yes, that very Llanwern steelworks.  

Exactly so - in a rolling mill where prior to the introduction of new control technology etc each run would see around a dozen or more men on the ground along the line plus others in control positions.  The change was very marked and obvious if, like me. you knew the rolling mill both before and after the big changeover.  In fact when I went to work on the site in early 1974 the change from only three years previously was incredible with a massive reduction in the number of people but producing an even better product at a lower price.

For those who are interested but not aware of what was involved look up "continuous casting".

I was involved in a lot of testing to see how material from the "new" mill would perform when re-rolled. We were able to roll to a very tight tolerance, around 25% of the specified tolerance and by holding it at this level could get a lot of extra footage from a ton of steel when we cold reduced it. There was a further marked improvement in quality around 1990 when the mill at Llanwern was improved and they began to offer ex mill material to the same specification that we could achieve by cold rolling it.

Happy days. Llanwern products provided me with a good chunk of my income over the years.

I would say that Hoogovens was in the same league  and they and Llanwern could produce a far better product than any of the German mills.

It must have been in the late 1970s that Japanese steel started to be imported and that was an eye opener in respect of quality.

Bernard

 

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