HS2 under review

[melmerby]

2 minutes ago, Flittersnoop said:

Much the same logic gives rise to the negative reaction in many people's minds to the prospect of a British designed high speed railway line!

HS1was very much in the French style, as were the trains.

[Joseph_Pestell]

1 hour ago, caradoc said:

Even the BBC itself is not immune from huge cost increases; Their new set for Eastenders, not anywhere comparable in scale or complexity to HS2, will cost £27 million more than its budget of £59.7 million, and will be finished 5 years late; As reported by the BBC itself !

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-46521700

 

They could have built a real East End square for that!

[Siberian Snooper]

55 minutes ago, Flittersnoop said:

Unfortunate, then, that it is common knowledge that the HS in HS2 stands for High Speed! I'm surprised the project hasn't been re-branded, as that's a common tactic used to try to change people's perceptions these days.

 

Should have been called the  Midlands and North link line or similar.

[Mike Storey]

Are we better than this, on here?

 

Analysis, at least of the highlights, of the, allegedly, leaked report show this:

 

The (more realistic) £55 billion did not include:

 

20% inflation, since added (presumed due to emerging inflationary drivers affecting all construction costs, not just rail)

£7 billion for new trains (originally assumed to be privately funded)

40% Optimism Bias (from the Treasury) - originally assumed at 25% (does not include contingency changes - see below)

Changes to scope due to increased tunnelling, cuttings and noise amelioration in Phase 1 - approved by govt

Changes to scope to add additional connectivity to existing rail and re-align Phase 2b with new stopping points - approved by govt

Changes to scope in the Sheffield area (originally downplayed as a saving, but in reality, due to Northern Powerhouse needs, not so) - approved by govt

Passive allowances for certain TfL schemes - not originally included

 

I estimate these would incur estimate additions of some £35 billion, give or take.

 

That leaves around £12 billion not explained in the detail to which we have access, and is suggested as increased land prices, unexpected ground conditions in some parts of the route, unwillingness of contractors to take on liabilities originally assumed and increased contingency elements, when added to the above. There must be more, but I cannot suggest them without greater knowledge.

 

But, in reality then, we are only talking about an increase of some 15% over and above the more likely £55 billion figure, once additional scope, changes to government conditions on supplying estimates and the addition of the cost of the trains is stripped out. Not anywhere near as bad as is being made out.

 

But the £107 billion figure will raise heads, and give ammunition to the antis. Northern Powerhouse will be unable to replace the missing bits, so will too be watered down to something ineffective. I don't care. I will be dead before it is ever finished. But I cry for those who wanted to see a greater environmentally friendly transport system, capable of carrying demand throughout the north-south, east-west divide, if it is cancelled, or greatly watered down to something meant to appease the great unwashed, who cannot think further than their next episode of Corrie.

 

[rogerzilla]

It'll probably be funded with public money and, a few years later, flogged off cheaply to outside investors to help pay the bills for a particular fiscal year.  Happened to HS1, RBS and many other enormous public investments of previous years.

[boxbrownie]

1 hour ago, Flittersnoop said:

Unfortunate, then, that it is common knowledge that the HS in HS2 stands for High Speed! I'm surprised the project hasn't been re-branded, as that's a common tactic used to try to change people's perceptions these days.

Yes, maybe they could rebrand it BS2......

[boxbrownie]

1 hour ago, melmerby said:

Blimey.

A British designed and built nuclear facility fills me with dread.

Windscale/Sellafield was an environmental disaster, much of which was hushed up at the time.

Most of the surrounding area got irradiated by unintended radioactive leakage from the place.

 

Another British designed one. No No No.

[Davexoc]

1 hour ago, melmerby said:

Blimey.

A British designed and built nuclear facility fills me with dread.

Windscale/Sellafield was an environmental disaster, much of which was hushed up at the time.

Most of the surrounding area got irradiated by unintended radioactive leakage from the place.

 

Another British designed one. No No No.

 

So you mean the glowing children in the old Ready Brek adverts were real then?

[class26]

2 hours ago, Phaeton said:

It's the biggest white elephant around, we're in deep but should get out now, no good will come of it, who cares if you can get to London 20 minutes quicker, 

 

It has been said thousands of times that HS2 is NOT about getting to Brum 20 minutes faster but about a HUGE increase in capacity

The fact that (I presume) railway lovers on here are repeating this comp;ete fallacy is an excellent demonstration as to why the general public fail to understand what HS2 is about

[billbedford]

1 hour ago, melmerby said:

Windscale/Sellafield was an environmental disaster, much of which was hushed up at the time.

 

But not big enough to enhance the wildlife cf Chernobyl, Fukushima

[APOLLO]

Again a bit off topic - A short interesting, unbelievable film explaining why Windscale was built - Plutonium for the UK's nuclear bomb. The by product was "too cheap to be metered" free electricity - the free bit never arrived - but the plutonium did, transported down to Aldermaston in a tin drum on the back of an open and un-security escorted lorry, then once processed in two staff cars to the RAF !!

 

 

Bit like HS2 - We always do things rather daftly in the UK don't we !! - Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way (as Pink Floyd sang).

 

Brit15

Edited January 20, 2020 by APOLLO
typo

[melmerby]

48 minutes ago, billbedford said:

 

But not big enough to enhance the wildlife cf Chernobyl, Fukushima

Remember the ban on milk from Cumbria and the sheep that glowed in the dark couldn't be put in the food chain and radioactivity that ended up in the Irish Republic?

Not such as dramatiic as big bangs and meltdowns but it went on for long periods.

Strontium 90, amongst other nasties, coming from Windscale for years was the problem, the place was dirty from a radiation point of view.

Even the water outlet was polluted with radiation, which went straight into the Irish Sea.

 

One of the bonkers ideas to clean it up somewhat were the huge filters put three quarters the way up the large concrete chimney to trap particles of radiation.

Problem is they only worked for a short time before they failed and were never replaced.

[Phaeton]

1 hour ago, class26 said:

 

It has been said thousands of times that HS2 is NOT about getting to Brum 20 minutes faster but about a HUGE increase in capacity

The fact that (I presume) railway lovers on here are repeating this comp;ete fallacy is an excellent demonstration as to why the general public fail to understand what HS2 is about

 

How can it be about capacity if it's not stopping? What appears to be needed is more commuter trains for the people who believe that London is the centre of the universe.

[melmerby]

6 minutes ago, Phaeton said:

 

How can it be about capacity if it's not stopping? What appears to be needed is more commuter trains for the people who believe that London is the centre of the universe.

Exactly.

A lot of WCML capacity is taken by regular Pendolinos travelling from Euston to points north, some with no stops at all on the southern end of the WCML.

Build HS 2 and all those journeys are taken off the WCML leaving the fast tracks for the extra trains you are talking about.

Simple really if you take a proper look at the proposals.

[mdvle]

21 minutes ago, Phaeton said:

 

How can it be about capacity if it's not stopping? What appears to be needed is more commuter trains for the people who believe that London is the centre of the universe.

 

Again, covered it the now 193 pages.

 

When timetabling trains one quickly comes to the realization that fast trains eat up capacity more than slower trains - longer stopping distances, etc.

 

Things get really messy when, as on the current railway, you then mix in freight, slow stopping trains, and high speed expresses - there ends up being a lot of "wasted" capacity to allow for the speed differences.

 

So when you build a new high speed line, and shift all the fairly non-stop high speed trains onto it, you get a much larger increase in capacity on the existing line than seems immediately obvious (example, using made up numbers, move 4 high speed trains off the WCML, gain ability to run 8 slower trains on the WCML instead).

 

So building HS2 creates a lot of extra capacity for those commuter trains for those who don't necessarily believe London is the centre of the universe but are stuck because that is where the jobs are.

 

But wait, there is more.  By also building essentially new inner city stations you also end up creating additional station capacity, a problem that exists not only in London but in the north.  And with that extra station capacity you can now improve local train service in the north because you have more ability to run more trains.

 

So it really is a win-win where London gains while at the same time the north of England also gains - which is why the northern mayors, having presumably been educated on what it takes to really improve rail service up there, are all for HS2 and haven't been seduced by nonsense of taking some HS2 money to be spent elsewhere on rail.

[Harlequin]

3 hours ago, Flittersnoop said:

Unfortunate, then, that it is common knowledge that the HS in HS2 stands for High Speed! I'm surprised the project hasn't been re-branded, as that's a common tactic used to try to change people's perceptions these days.

Yes, simple rebrand to get the public on side. The name needs to be of the moment (a bit Brexity), refer to past engineering heritage and be timeless all at the same time. How hard can it be?

Er,...

The Great British Central Main Line?

GBCML 

 

Get Boris to announce it. Problem solved!

[runs as required]

What we seem to be learning is that Politics trumps Economics. I bet a lot of 'infrastructure' gets announced for new blue collar Tory locations - including HS2.

dh

 

 

 

[mdvle]

3 hours ago, Harlequin said:

Yes, simple rebrand to get the public on side. The name needs to be of the moment (a bit Brexity), refer to past engineering heritage and be timeless all at the same time. How hard can it be?

Er,...

The Great British Central Main Line?

GBCML

 

Maybe GBML (or even BML)

 

Boris Island

Boris Bus

Great Boris Main Line?

[royaloak]

Descope it to 125 or 140mph, due to the quieter trains there is no need for much of the tunneling, less land grab needed etc, so billions saved.

 

That will be £250,000 please, where do I send the invoice?

Edited January 21, 2020 by royaloak

[Flittersnoop]

5 hours ago, runs as required said:

What we seem to be learning is that Politics trumps Economics. I bet a lot of 'infrastructure' gets announced for new blue collar Tory locations - including HS2.

dh

 

 

 

From a politcal perspective there must be a strong possibility that HS2 (which is seen as an elitist project that rich people will use) will be scrapped and some of the money used for improving rail services in the north, which almost everyone agrees are currenly dire, so passenger trains might return to Ashington, and the trans Pennine routes might be electrified after all.

[Neil]

11 hours ago, Steamport Southport said:

 

Sobering to think we are still using infrastructure started to be built in the 1820s.....

 

That's 200 years for those who can't add up. Isn't it time for some new things?

 

 

 

Jason

 

This very neatly sums up the problem of the way that we tend to look at costs. £106 billion looks a lot when spread over the build period but when we spread that cost over the lifespan of the railway it shrinks dramatically. Yes in 200 years time there will be little left of the original as it will have been subject to maintenance and improvement, but the corridor and alignment will have been secured.

 

 

4 minutes ago, Flittersnoop said:

From a politcal perspective there must be a strong possibility that HS2 (which is seen as an elitist project that rich people will use) will be scrapped and some of the money used for improving rail services in the north, which almost everyone agrees are currenly dire, so passenger trains might return to Ashington, and the trans Pennine routes might be electrified after all.

 

Ah, Pleb-Rail, now there's a non elitist branding we could all understand. Two points I'd like to make here, firstly that it shouldn't be either/or. Rail services in the north do need improvement. I often travel from mid Wales to visit family in York. The trans Pennine leg of the journey is always rammed. Longer trains at greater frequency would be most welcome. from an environmental perspective the Liverpool, York route should be wired. Secondly I'm also a regular user of HS1 and while I see a few sharp suited business people the majority of passengers look  to be ordinary blokes like me. It's not elitist or expensive with fares (if booked in advance) of £27 to Paris or Brussels, £35 to Amsterdam.

[Phaeton]

Still not convinced, it's a vanity project, the only people who are going to get benefit are the shareholders of the contractors, who knowingly put in low bids fully expecting the costs to be far higher & knowing that no-one in Government has the balls to pull the rug from under them.

 

Upthread people are saying it will free up capacity on existing lines, elsewhere people are advising this won't happen as they are closing tracks to make space for this new line, the £100-150 Billion could be put to far better use.

[jamie92208]

9 hours ago, melmerby said:

Remember the ban on milk from Cumbria and the sheep that glowed in the dark couldn't be put in the food chain and radioactivity that ended up in the Irish Republic?

Not such as dramatiic as big bangs and meltdowns but it went on for long periods.

Strontium 90, amongst other nasties, coming from Windscale for years was the problem, the place was dirty from a radiation point of view.

Even the water outlet was polluted with radiation, which went straight into the Irish Sea.

 

One of the bonkers ideas to clean it up somewhat were the huge filters put three quarters the way up the large concrete chimney to trap particles of radiation.

Problem is they only worked for a short time before they failed and were never replaced.

As far as I know, the filters did work. They were a late edition to the scheme which is why they were at the top of thd exhaust stacks. They were known as Cockrofts follies IIRC, named after the engineer who insisted on them. The reactor was air cooled and the filters did manage to catch over 90% of the radioactive  particulates when the core caught fire. However they didn't get the Strontium and I think an iodine isotope. The fire would have been a real disaster without them.  How can I remember some of this, simple answer, an inspiring chemistry teacher who worked at Winscale when the fire happenned and used i9t as a teaching example.  

 

Anyway, back to HS2, as a former resident of Leeds i just hope that the current cabinet actually sees some sense. Without getting into the politics of it, the project wouldn't even be alive now without some very brave decisions made by Cameron who actually represented an area near where the line is due to go. I just hope that his successors  have the same mind set.

 

Jamie

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 21, 2020 by jamie92208

[Joseph_Pestell]

12 minutes ago, Phaeton said:

Still not convinced, it's a vanity project, the only people who are going to get benefit are the shareholders of the contractors, who knowingly put in low bids fully expecting the costs to be far higher & knowing that no-one in Government has the balls to pull the rug from under them.

 

Upthread people are saying it will free up capacity on existing lines, elsewhere people are advising this won't happen as they are closing tracks to make space for this new line, the £100-150 Billion could be put to far better use.

 

Amazing that we still see so much misinformation about this. And that people believe it.

 

How can it be a "vanity project"? Similar lines in just about every other developed country in the world have been of great benefit economically.

 

No tracks have been closed to make way for this line (other than a short stretch of almost disused line in London).

 

I would also like to put in another figure. Upgrading the WCML last time (15-20 years ago) cost £9bn. And that figure does not take into account the huge costs to rail users of disruption to services while that was going on. Getting some real increase in capacity with much less disruption to existing services for £100bn looks quite good in this context.

 

The only sense in which HS2 might be called a vanity project is going into Euston (an expensive option) and extra high speed which has made it much more difficult to find an acceptable route.

 

UK land/property values is a big factor in higher cost. But I do agree that something is not quite right when build costs in the UK are so far ahead of those on the Continent. Part of that is that we have lost many of the necessary skills in this country as manufacturing was allowed to decline. 

[Jol Wilkinson]

10 minutes ago, Phaeton said:

Still not convinced, it's a vanity project, the only people who are going to get benefit are the shareholders of the contractors, who knowingly put in low bids fully expecting the costs to be far higher & knowing that no-one in Government has the balls to pull the rug from under them.

 

Upthread people are saying it will free up capacity on existing lines, elsewhere people are advising this won't happen as they are closing tracks to make space for this new line, the £100-150 Billion could be put to far better use.

Which infrastructure project doesn't have some degree of vanity about it, for the whichever national or local government that invents it, completes it or cancels it.

 

Locally we have the Ipswich Northern Route, ostensibly to remove congestion from Ipswich, but which will give the local Tory Council the opportunity to let their friends in the house building sector create 10,000 new homes, with nearly two cars per home on average (the research indicating the need for the "bypass" was apparently funded by Keir Construction). Of course, the new residents will need the services of the local hospital, mental health care infrastructure (if their is any left), schools, supermarkets, etc. etc. All that will of course add congestion and put the local services under more strain. However, the local council will be able to tell everyone what a wonderful thing they have done to "improve" Ipswich.