Hornby - Short Supply

[dogbox321]

Hi All, whilst I can appreciate that Hornby do not wish to keep vast amounts of stock, surely it would be a good practice to produce a decent amount, so people can actually purchase stock.  Just looking at the R4909. R4910, R4911's announced in June.  Network Rail Mk3's have sold out in there previous guises, and it seems these have pretty much hit the shelves and gone!  Hornby have lost revenue from the reduced sales by not producing enough, modellers will have problems sourcing them and it will damage their view of Hornby, plus  with there "expertise", should this really be occuring?  They should know how many previous units they have been able to sell, and forecast likely demand.

 

I wonder if they will do another batch?  The R4393 were shown as sold out, but now as a pre-order?  Alternatively, if they cannot budget to produce a sufficient quantity to satisfy demand, then it would probably be better to avoid the "farce" and produce it the year after.  Its really unfortunate, that a company this is trying to turn itself around is actually restricting its own sales in this way!  Likewise, how can modellers support the brand if they cannot buy the stock?

 

Regards,

 

C.

[amwells]

Kernow advertising these as back in stock in today’s newsletter http://www.kernowmodelrailcentre.com/pg/100/Newsletter-Current

[Guest JiLo]

1 hour ago, dogbox321 said:

Hi All, whilst I can appreciate that Hornby do not wish to keep vast amounts of stock, surely it would be a good practice to produce a decent amount, so people can actually purchase stock.  Just looking at the R4909. R4910, R4911's announced in June.  Network Rail Mk3's have sold out in there previous guises, and it seems these have pretty much hit the shelves and gone!  Hornby have lost revenue from the reduced sales by not producing enough, modellers will have problems sourcing them and it will damage their view of Hornby, plus  with there "expertise", should this really be occuring?  They should know how many previous units they have been able to sell, and forecast likely demand.

 

I wonder if they will do another batch?  The R4393 were shown as sold out, but now as a pre-order?  Alternatively, if they cannot budget to produce a sufficient quantity to satisfy demand, then it would probably be better to avoid the "farce" and produce it the year after.  Its really unfortunate, that a company this is trying to turn itself around is actually restricting its own sales in this way!  Likewise, how can modellers support the brand if they cannot buy the stock?

 

Regards,

 

C.

Hornby have been bitten hard before by riding on the popularity wave which resulted in a large amount of stock being sold at low prices through the trade.  If anything Hornby, and all manufacturers, are being sensible by producing only what they think they can easily, and quickly, sell.  What flies off the shelves  on the first run, might be dead in the water on the second.   

 

The only way to guarantee a particular model from any of the manufacturers is to pre-order it, failing that. repaint/renumber another version 

Edited August 30, 2019 by JiLo

[Paul80]

This problem affects all the model railway makers, they no longer build in their own Factory so have to guess how many will sell and order models in sufficient numbers to satisfy their estimate of demand. They get it wrong in both directions at times, producing not enough and far too many, not enough feeds high second hand prices, too much feeds discounting and lost revenue.

 

Not owning their own production facilities means they are totally at the mercy of someone else's production schedule and can't just load the moulds to run a few more off.

[adb968008]

And its good for profits all round...

 

Hornby has sold out, so Kerching.

The retailers have stopped mass discounting as what is made is sold.. Kerching again.

 

If you want it, you've got to pony up for it, or miss out as they are only making what they can sell.

 

it doesn't help anyone having loads of stock on shelves.

 

Unfortunately as consumers, the day of buying armfuls of cheap stuff look to be over,  in my case Ive got loads of spare cash for other things this year, I was spending too much on the hobby, so its not an all round bad thing for consumers either.

Edited August 31, 2019 by adb968008

[Ouroborus]

Exactly as ADB says.  If you want it, preorder and pay the full MRP or risk losing out.  Same as Bachmann.  

 

Production can be gauged by the numbers of preorders, so it seems to be a system that highly benefits manufacturers and retailers - no spare stock hanging around unsold.

 

As said, kernow have these, also check eBay for resellers

[47423]

If you snooze, you lose. Simples.

As they say !

[GWR-fan]

Typically for an American prototype production run and quite possibly also applies to British prototypes,  a production number is calculated based mostly on orders received and the parts required to meet that number are gathered.  The production run then proceeds once all parts are instock.   Unlike days of old where surplus stock was always on shelves,  production numbers these days are very tight,  even occasionally failing to fulfil actual orders let alone stock for shelves.  Several years ago a popular locomotive (not new tooling) was released in a run of 200 from memory even though orders exceeded this number by many more.  As a result the auction bay site went haywire as asking prices skyrocketed.  The Peckett a couple of years ago also was in this situation although in that case being a new release perhaps Hornby were being cautious in not creating an oversupply.

[Dunsignalling]

Hornby have calculated, correctly, that the number of these models produced would sell. Whether or not they could have sold more (other than the ones you would have bought) is pure speculation. They will therefore have made exactly the predicted return on their investment. Good business practice, and essential for their future success. They've sold all they made, their dealers have sold all they ordered. Nobody has cash tied up in unsold stock. Job done.

 

There will be dealers with a few still in stock (others have already mentioned Kernow) and your recommended course of action, if you really want these models, is to get looking immediately. Delay, and the only place to get them may be by paying skyrocketing prices on eBay, which is one of the few reliable indicators that show up when demand really has exceeded supply by a significant margin.

 

John

Edited August 31, 2019 by Dunsignalling

[roythebus]

They are following the lead set by car makers and many other businesses by the just-in-time method of stock control. As others have said, not having stock on the shelves means cash not tied up in stock. It makes good business sense.

 

As I've recounted on here several times before, i had a chat with the late Charlie Skelton of W&H Models (remember them?) at a toy show in the 1970s. It was when diesel modelling was just starting to take off. We discussed the demand for a British outline diesel. He said that if "soneone" made a British diesel in 00 it may sell 2000. If somebody produced a Belgian diesel in H0 it would sell 10,000, not because the SNCB was a popular railway, but because there's a lot of collectors all round the world who will buy one of almost everything produced in H0.  

 

His point was that if we modelled in H0 it would be far more economical for manufacturers to sell 10,000 than 2,000. Admittedly these days we do have the selection of models, but you can't always get the livery or number you want. 00 gauge does not sell round the world in the quantities that H0 does, so production will always be limited.

[Robin Verth]

Pre ordering does not always guarantee that you will get the item, a few years ago I pre ordered the Hornby rebuilt LSWR coaches  1 set in red another in green they were ordered the day they were announced,  just after they arrived at the retailers I got 8 emails telling me they did not have the stock to fulfil my order, I then put an order in direct to Hornby and managed to get all 8 coaches. Later I  the year I found that a number of model shops had them in stock.

It is a case of supply and demand how many people order 2 or 3 of a new item keeping 1 and sell the others on auction sites if the model is in short supply at a good profit to pay for the one they are keeping, the first run of the Peckett 0-4-0's are an example, though the best example I came across was the England Winners World Cup Stamp in, if people found a Post Office that had stock they would buy all of them, Exchange & Mart (pre internet days) had pages of listings for this 1 stamp.

[adb968008]

2 hours ago, roythebus said:

They are following the lead set by car makers and many other businesses by the just-in-time method of stock control. As others have said, not having stock on the shelves means cash not tied up in stock. It makes good business sense.

 

As I've recounted on here several times before, i had a chat with the late Charlie Skelton of W&H Models (remember them?) at a toy show in the 1970s. It was when diesel modelling was just starting to take off. We discussed the demand for a British outline diesel. He said that if "soneone" made a British diesel in 00 it may sell 2000. If somebody produced a Belgian diesel in H0 it would sell 10,000, not because the SNCB was a popular railway, but because there's a lot of collectors all round the world who will buy one of almost everything produced in H0.  

 

His point was that if we modelled in H0 it would be far more economical for manufacturers to sell 10,000 than 2,000. Admittedly these days we do have the selection of models, but you can't always get the livery or number you want. 00 gauge does not sell round the world in the quantities that H0 does, so production will always be limited.

I think your numbers might be out a bit there.

 

Lima worked on 30,000, limited editions were often >1000 back in the 1980’s and Lima certainly made more than 2000 class 47’s... Indeed they probably made 100 versions of 47, and certainly made them in batches > 20 of each ! .. i’d hazard a guess theres probably 100k Lima class 47’s out there.

Edited August 31, 2019 by adb968008

[adb968008]

Furthering a bit more research on this, according to Hornby Guide, between 1978 and 1985 Hornby produced :

 

27,000 Class 47 Mammoth in green

43,000 class 47 47421 in blue

 9,000 class 47 47712 Lady Diana Spencer

 6,300 class 47 Large / Logo 47170

10,400 class 47 47541 The Queen Mother

10,350 class 47 47568

 

106k class 47...

 

 

They also produced :

52k BR blue class 25 25247

54k D7596 in Green...

 

thats 106k class 25’s... in just 3 years between 1977-1979...

 

looking at these kinds of volumes Margate was conceivably turning out 1mn items a year across the entire range of rolling stock, locos etc.

 

Those days are long gone, the quote you suggest was maybe a prophecy of today, I doubt 100k of any single tooling has been made this century, perhaps the rebuilt Merchant Navy or original bb/wc  ? I understand 6000 is often a reality on toolings today, in all liveries.

 

Edited August 31, 2019 by adb968008

[Big James]

Take as an example when the rebuilt Bulleid light pacific come out. eBay these days is awash with 34003 Plymouth. But the later example like 34013 okehampton are like buses you won’t see one for ages then 2 or 3 will turn up on eBay. I think this is the clearest evidence that Hornby have been reducing production runs to make the most out of tooling. 

 

big James 

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

2 hours ago, Robin Verth said:

Pre ordering does not always guarantee that you will get the item, a few years ago I pre ordered the Hornby rebuilt LSWR coaches  1 set in red another in green they were ordered the day they were announced,  just after they arrived at the retailers I got 8 emails telling me they did not have the stock to fulfil my order, I then put an order in direct to Hornby and managed to get all 8 coaches. Later I  the year I found that a number of model shops had them in stock...

That's all about that particular retailer: for whatever reason they had not ordered from Hornby. Are they still in business?

[truffy]

The problem with the preorder-or-you-miss-it/you-snooze-you-lose model is that it assumes that the manufacturer ‘gets it right’ and that independent reviews mean nothing. 

[mdvle]

8 hours ago, Paul80 said:

Not owning their own production facilities means they are totally at the mercy of someone else's production schedule and can't just load the moulds to run a few more off.

 

But owning your own production facilities, assuming a well run business, doesn't solve the problem.

 

Any business that isn't wasting money will size their production facilities to keep them busy the entire year - any spare capacity is wasted money.  So if they did "just load the moulds and run a few more off" not only would they be incurring the expense of the changeover for a small run of items, but it would mean postponing or cancelling some other scheduled product which has lost its slot.

 

 

 

[Robin Verth]

The retailer is still in business, I never found out if they had under ordered or if the full order was not supplied, I have had many pre orders with the company all have been fulfilled, I do not pre order Bachmann due to the long lead in times. 

One of the nearby model shops does not stock Bachmann (no it's not Hattons) another not to faraway does so if I want a Bachmann item I try there to see if they have it in stock.

[Pandora]

If a Baker bakes 100 loaves of bread and he has 125 hungry buyers then (sellers market) the Baker has an easy life and sells each loaf at a premium price,  If the BAker bakes 150 loaves and only 125 hungry buyers , the Baker has a hard time and risks his income

Edited August 31, 2019 by Pandora

[Hitchin Junction]

OTOH, using more flexible production methods which are not affected by economies of scale, means that production can be turned on and off, repeatedly or even ramped up and down rather like using a tap. It's not as if models are perishable. Freshly baked bread isn't a good comparison example.

 

Although the costs may be somewhat higher, you always meet the market demands, and the same production system means that a much wider range of all your products are always available in parallel, all older ones as well as continually added new ones. 

 

Tim

 

 

[Oldddudders]

21 minutes ago, Pandora said:

If a Baker bakes 100 loaves of bread and he has 125 hungry buyers then (sellers market) the Baker has an easy life and sells each loaf at a premium price,  If the BAker bakes 150 loaves and only 125 hungry buyers , the Baker has a hard time and risks his income

Mr Micawber.

[Dunsignalling]

7 hours ago, roythebus said:

They are following the lead set by car makers and many other businesses by the just-in-time method of stock control. As others have said, not having stock on the shelves means cash not tied up in stock. It makes good business sense.

 

As I've recounted on here several times before, i had a chat with the late Charlie Skelton of W&H Models (remember them?) at a toy show in the 1970s. It was when diesel modelling was just starting to take off. We discussed the demand for a British outline diesel. He said that if "soneone" made a British diesel in 00 it may sell 2000. If somebody produced a Belgian diesel in H0 it would sell 10,000, not because the SNCB was a popular railway, but because there's a lot of collectors all round the world who will buy one of almost everything produced in H0.  

 

His point was that if we modelled in H0 it would be far more economical for manufacturers to sell 10,000 than 2,000. Admittedly these days we do have the selection of models, but you can't always get the livery or number you want. 00 gauge does not sell round the world in the quantities that H0 does, so production will always be limited.

 

Much more recently than the 1970s, Heljan, an established HO manufacturer, had plans to make a Class 37 in that scale. They publicly stated that they required pre-orders for 3000 models, a mere 750 each of four different liveries,  before they would go ahead. Those were not forthcoming, despite even me ordering one, and they turned their attentions to OO for their British outline models, with a fair degree of success.

 

Shouldn't the first British outline r-t-r HO model in living memory have been so iconic as to have all those avid and eclectic international collectors of the 1970s beating a path to Heljan's door?

 

Evidently not, leaving two possible conclusions, either they didn't exist in the 1970s (or had ceased to in the following two decades) or they do but simply aren't interested in models of UK prototypes, whatever the scale.

 

John

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 31, 2019 by Dunsignalling

[GWR-fan]

When taking the reins the Hornby boss stated, "No more firesales!!!!!!".  It was obvious from that statement that future production runs would not mimic those of the past.  Strict control would be managed over the runs to ensure a sale for every item manufactured at near to recommended MSRP as possible.  Past sales have shown that there is a big demand for Network Rail coaches and yet it seems both of the main players in the game limit production of this livery.  Manufacturer imposed "limited" runs imply exclusivity and thus demand. 

[andyman7]

11 hours ago, Robin Verth said:

 

It is a case of supply and demand how many people order 2 or 3 of a new item keeping 1 and sell the others on auction sites if the model is in short supply at a good profit to pay for the one they are keeping, the first run of the Peckett 0-4-0's are an example, though the best example I came across was the England Winners World Cup Stamp in, if people found a Post Office that had stock they would buy all of them, Exchange & Mart (pre internet days) had pages of listings for this 1 stamp.

If you do that with everything you'll soon lose much more than you gain with all the extra examples of models that don't sell out that you then have to move on at a loss. I have to admit that unless it's something I really want, if I buy a new release and find it starts going for silly money I will sometimes sell it on to someone who clearly wants it more than me, and buy something else with the funds. Re the England WInners world cup stamp, the irony is that pre-decimal commemorative postage stamps (which have no postal value since decimalisation) have plummeted so much in value that you can use them as wallpaper these days.

Edited August 31, 2019 by andyman7

[Legend]

Obviously Hornby restricting production to what they have orders for . Either that or their manufacturers aren’t flexible enough to increase production runs  at short notice, which is understandable . Or Simon Kohler has got market wrong and could have sold a lot more of certain items eg Network Rail mk3s  but less of others . You will be able to tell his success rate by what remains as bargain basement in Hattons .