Hornby Update on Financials.

[Ouroborus]

2 minutes ago, scottrains29 said:

The Brexit set could have a popular blue engine that's trying its hardest to move forward but can't because the troublesome trucks won't budge. The trucks would be a range of colours including red, orange, green, yellow, and also a small one that keeps changing!

 

Made me laugh. 

[TheSignalEngineer]

24 minutes ago, JSpencer said:

Whilst I can understand Hornby considering doing a B train, I think it best they have not. The passions B generates are for extraordinary devisive reasons and it is best Hornby stays clear.

Box openers can generate enough arguments as to whether Hornby got the shape of the Bulleid window glass right without introducing politics into the mix.

[Clearwater]

14 minutes ago, Ravenser said:

 

The pressure would fall on Dover and ro-ro ports, not Felixstowe/Southampton/ Gateway. And to be blunt, if clearance took 24 hrs not 3 hrs it's not a big issue - the box is sat in the stack. The blockages tend to be getting the duty/VAT money out of the client and getting the haulage covered

 

Agreed.  Most of the boxes into the main container ports are ex-far east not Europe.  There’s a big question over the extent to which trade that currently goes through Dover diverts to other ports, either containerised or in roro.

 

Personally, I feel there may be two issues.  Firstly the extent to which delays at the roro ports chew up driver capacity and have a knock on impact onto the ability to get boxes out of the deep sea container ports.  Secondly, if Hornby bring in containers mixed with product destined for the Eu into the uk, then they may have an issue on those exports which I’d assume go on a roro vessel.  Without knowing the detail, they may bring in full containers to Margate before palletising and distributing to retail.  That said, I don’t think those products form a large proportion of their turnover.

[Dungrange]

6 minutes ago, Ravenser said:

The pressure would fall on Dover and ro-ro ports, not Felixstowe/Southampton/ Gateway. And to be blunt, if clearance took 24 hrs not 3 hrs it's not a big issue - the box is sat in the stack. The blockages tend to be getting the duty/VAT money out of the client and getting the haulage covered

 

I agree that in the short term, the greatest pressure would obviously fall on the Channel Ports as they handle proportionately more cross-Channel traffic.  However, I believe that some traffic from the EU currently comes into the deep water ports and via coastal shipping and that proportion would likely increase post-Brexit if Dover etc fail to cope and importers need to consider other options.  Whilst I agree that increasing the clearance time for a container from 3 hours to 24 hours shouldn't be a major problem if it's due to a short-term impact (weather or industrial action), Brexit will be a permanent change and therefore what isn't cleared on day one will have to clear on day two in addition to the traffic on day two.  As such, the delays are likely to keep increasing until our Custom's capacity is increased to cope with the increased workload.  How long that takes, I have no idea.

 

However, I don't see anything wrong with companies like Hornby considering their supply chain risks, as presumably it will help them to plan contingency measures if there are a few more 'bumps in the road' than the Government expect.

 

That said, since I don't think there is much in the Hornby catalogue that I really want, I'm not particularly concerned by the thought that certain models may not make it to the shops before Christmas.

[Ozexpatriate]

4 hours ago, Phil Parker said:

.(Note: This is a Hornby thread. Try to discuss the B-word and you will be moderated....

Bachmann? (Honestly my first thought.)

 

I knew someone would have posted this reply. Ian was quick about it.

Edited September 26, 2019 by Ozexpatriate

[woodenhead]

What is this Brexit thing that everyone is talking about?

 

I thought British Rail exited in 1997, why is this an issue in 2019

 

 

[mdvle]

2 hours ago, Ravenser said:

 

The pressure would fall on Dover and ro-ro ports, not Felixstowe/Southampton/ Gateway. And to be blunt, if clearance took 24 hrs not 3 hrs it's not a big issue - the box is sat in the stack. The blockages tend to be getting the duty/VAT money out of the client and getting the haulage covered

 

Assumes though that the government doesn't try shifting staff around to make up for a shortage of staff to deal with EU imports.  Given that say food may be viewed as more important than model trains, the view that containers from Asia can wait may be a popular one for those in charge.

[jjb1970]

A significant amount of perishable food is transported in containers. One of the highest value segments is chilled (not frozen) cargo, chilled boxes allow you to carry fresh produce around the world but it is not frozen and the cargo is still time sensitive. And there are a lot of frozen food boxes. Not to mention food in standard containers.

[tomparryharry]

14 hours ago, Phil Parker said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 27, 2019 by tomparryharry
Reply deleted.

[The Stationmaster]

The interesting thing about this thread is that nobody has yet commented on the content, and numbers, in Hornby's Annual Report which was published over a month ago.  This must be some sort of record for discussion on here and does it indicate that we believe Hornby are turning the corner at last.  The principal numbers show some great improvement in reducing losses because although sales were down c.10%   The operating loss was massively reduced from £9.9 million in 2018 to £5.2 million this year while the net debt/cash situation improved from -£3.9 million in 2018 to -£1.8million this year.

 

The possible impact of B>>>>t is discussed very briefly on page 3 of the Report.

 

The Report for those who are interested -

http://ir.tools.investis.com/Clients/uk/Hornby/Html/PDF/Hornby AR19 FINAL.pdf

[adb968008]

So a thought towards an international trade related trainset, maybe Hornby could make container wagons, with a separate “pot luck” collection of containers painted with different national flags from around the world... 

people could collect the set of containerised flags

 

 

[phil-b259]

21 hours ago, JSpencer said:

Whilst I can understand Hornby considering doing a B train, I think it best they have not. The passions B generates are for extraordinary devisive reasons and it is best Hornby stays clear.

 

21 hours ago, Dungrange said:

 

As for why someone at Hornby think a Brexit themed train set would sell well, I have no idea.  Maybe they think interest in it would go on and on, just like the whole Brexit saga in the House of Commons.  Personally, I think it was probably a way of gaining wider exposure for the Press Release.  It gets people talking about a trading update. 

 

Its BLANTENTLY obvious that the reference to a 'Brexit themed Train Set' by Hornby is merely a cleaver bit of PR designed to raise the groups profile in the press - as following recent political events, anything 'Brexit' related gets top billing in the media.

 

I really do question the, how can I put it, the naivety of those who seem to think Hornby ever seriously contemplated producing a 'Brexit' themed product. I mean, can you imagine a car manufacturer producing a Brexit themed car?

 

The purpose of Hornby's comment is merely a chance to plug their cooperate tie ins with the likes of Coca-Cola and Warmer Bros in the run up to Christmas (where Hornby are hoping for lots of sales of the aforementioned product)s, plus a chance to highlight the good financial news that it has made good progress on reducing its losses and the 'medicine' designed to return the group to making profits for shareholders is  working.

 

[mdvle]

I also took it as a bit of fun poked at Hornby themselves, for some of the questionable themed items they have made in the past that haven't sold well and ended up needing to be dumped.

[Hitchin Junction]

On 26/09/2019 at 10:43, Phil Parker said:

SNIP

 

 If everyone stuck to toy trains, the world would be a better place.)

 

 

 

It would be a disaster for super-super-detailed models though.

Tim

[adb968008]

3 hours ago, phil-b259 said:

 

 

Its BLANTENTLY obvious that the reference to a 'Brexit themed Train Set' by Hornby is merely a cleaver bit of PR designed to raise the groups profile in the press - as following recent political events, anything 'Brexit' related gets top billing in the media.

 

I really do question the, how can I put it, the naivety of those who seem to think Hornby ever seriously contemplated producing a 'Brexit' themed product. I mean, can you imagine a car manufacturer producing a Brexit themed car?

 

The purpose of Hornby's comment is merely a chance to plug their cooperate tie ins with the likes of Coca-Cola and Warmer Bros in the run up to Christmas (where Hornby are hoping for lots of sales of the aforementioned product)s, plus a chance to highlight the good financial news that it has made good progress on reducing its losses and the 'medicine' designed to return the group to making profits for shareholders is  working.

 

You seem to be taking this very seriously, for what is a light hearted thread, that in peacetime would be considered a wish list, in disguise.

 

[Humour=On]

but if they did make a Brexit toy car scalextrix perhaps they could produce a traffic jam set, with Trucks on one lane and slow moving cars on the other.

They could later re-release it as an M25 starter kit, and later still as an M60 in rush hour set, Road works round Brum, ... list is endless.

[\Humour]

 

 

*added tags for clarity

Edited September 27, 2019 by adb968008

[phil-b259]

26 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

You seem to be taking this very seriously, for what is a light hearted thread

 

Not so - there is obviously plenty of fun to be had in speculating what a Brexit themed train set might contain.

 

However several of the posts made thus far (including the two I quoted) seem to imply some folk are actually approaching the topic as though Hornby seriously considered the idea!

[Talltim]

They could still announce it, it could just take its time happening...

[JSpencer]

On 27/09/2019 at 10:57, The Stationmaster said:

The interesting thing about this thread is that nobody has yet commented on the content, and numbers, in Hornby's Annual Report which was published over a month ago.  This must be some sort of record for discussion on here and does it indicate that we believe Hornby are turning the corner at last.  The principal numbers show some great improvement in reducing losses because although sales were down c.10%   The operating loss was massively reduced from £9.9 million in 2018 to £5.2 million this year while the net debt/cash situation improved from -£3.9 million in 2018 to -£1.8million this year.

 

The possible impact of B>>>>t is discussed very briefly on page 3 of the Report.

 

The Report for those who are interested -

http://ir.tools.investis.com/Clients/uk/Hornby/Html/PDF/Hornby AR19 FINAL.pdf

 

Reading the report, I think the Cash situation has worsened. Pages 4 and 10 of the PDF (1 and 8 on the actual pages themselves) show +3.9M cash in 2018 and -1.8M debt in 2019.

Operating loss was greatly reduced, but sales came down 10% and - reading within the lines - there seems to be some challenges getting the fixed costs down further. A lot seems to hope on getting sales up to the 40+ million mark. A tough challenge. I know new tooling drives a lot of fresh sales but the past few years have not been short of new tooling either.

Too much tooling or too many products might even raise the variable costs too much for little increase in sales.

My take (and sorry for sounding negative), the ship is still sinking though damage control has reduced the speed it is sinking at. On a positive note, people are trying to save the ship, some measures are definately working, though more are required to get fixed and sailing again. Hopefully these talented people have some further areas and resources to explore and there are doubtless a few tough calls to be made yet before the ship sails again. 

It is possible the model train market has reduced as  I doubt the new small entrants have picked up the slack from Hornby (and Bachmann for that matter) reduced sales.

 

The good news, I've seen the new Harry Potter train sets on sale in France in Geek Comic book shops. An unexpected surprise and who knows what fresh blood that could bring to our hobby. 

[TravisM]

On 28/09/2019 at 00:02, Talltim said:

They could still announce it, it could just take its time happening...

 

If they announce it now, given the time it takes to produce, ship and distribute, it might, it just might arrive in time as brexit happens lol.

[Clearwater]

@JSpencer

not sure I agree with your take on the cash position.  They’ve had various recapitalisations that will have put money onto the balance sheet.  If you look at a snapshot in time, year end date, all it tells you is the position then.  So if the £3.9m positive balance was post losing £12m in operating cash flow and capital expenditure, raising £15m in new money, the absolute cash will have increased.  If the operating cash loss is now down to £6m, that’s a significant improvement. 

 

I agree that It does suggest that without actually moving to an operating profit and being cash flow positive that they will still run out of cash again.

 

David

[rab]

On 26/09/2019 at 22:43, scottrains29 said:

The Brexit set could have a popular blue engine that's trying its hardest to move forward but can't because the troublesome trucks won't budge. The trucks would be a range of colours including red, orange, green, yellow, and also a small one that keeps changing!

I think that is about the closest you can get

to discussing the B topic without being moderated.

[Ouroborus]

11 hours ago, rab said:

I think that is about the closest you can get

to discussing the B topic without being moderated.

 

I thought that too.  Sub trucks for trots  and you're even closer! 

[mdvle]

22 hours ago, JSpencer said:

My take (and sorry for sounding negative), the ship is still sinking though damage control has reduced the speed it is sinking at. On a positive note, people are trying to save the ship, some measures are definately working, though more are required to get fixed and sailing again

 

Everything in that report is 6 months old, and only reflects about 1 year(?) of the current management.

 

For me the key points are:

 

1) the plans are funded until 2023.  This means there should be some stability to the creation of new models for the next several years, and that they will have the time and resources to do a proper job on these new models.

 

2) it's too early to make much of a judgement - for example, the ending of the constant discounting of product to clear out the warehouse will take time to filter through both to retailers and consumers and thus the resulting change in behaviour will likely be seen in next years financial results.  As retailers regain trust that Hornby won't turn around and stab them in the back, they will be more confident in purchasing not only stock for pre-orders but to have a reasonable amount of shelf stock.  Similarly, at some point the end customers will realize if they want a model they can't wait for Hornby to have a fire sale and will be forced to purchase it at a more reasonable (at least for Hornby's profit margins, and retailers) price.

[lochlongside]

On 27/09/2019 at 01:04, mdvle said:

 

Assumes though that the government doesn't try shifting staff around to make up for a shortage of staff to deal with EU imports.  Given that say food may be viewed as more important than model trains, the view that containers from Asia can wait may be a popular one for those in charge.

 

What ........ !!!!  (McEnroe moment here !!!)

[robmcg]

5 hours ago, lochlongside said:

 

What ........ !!!!  (McEnroe moment here !!!)

 

In answer to McEnroe's timely and restrained expostulation, of course he is not being serious.

 

We all know that model trains are more important than food. Just ask my bank manager.